Treasury Morning Brief - 28 April

Transcription

1. TREASURY MM ORNING BRIEF TREASURY ORNING BRIEF 28 April 2017 Treasury Sales +44 207 648 7786/89 - Reuters BACM Market Report Markets Almost the weekend. For some tomorrow could be a "Fantastic Day" a celebration of 'Haircut One Hundred' not Nick Heyward's 80's pop but the 100th day of Donald Trump in office. President Trump is not everyone's "Love Plus One" congress has proved a difficult venue for him to play in, his Tax plan so far his biggest hit, albeit out on single, a single piece of paper with 19 bullet points that is. Markets could say President Trump's "Nobody's Fool", Top of the Pops are moves in Equity markets, S&P 500 has for example risen 5.5 percent since Donald Trump's inauguration, a real one hundred metre sprint. Equity markets are a little subdued as we end another week and the month of April, all things calm, U.S GDP numbers this afternoon the main interest. Investors remain upbeat on improving global economic growth, I note though the U.S GDP Annualised QoQ forecast is 1% , that would be the lowest pace of growth in a year. WTI Crude still struggling to regain a $50 handle, currently trading circa $49.35 a barrel and all set for a monthly decline as U.S output climbs. EM Credit Month end flows have seen Core Bonds settle down, yields ticking a little higher. EM Credit has been steady this week, a consistent performance rather than a starring role. Sovereign and Supra Eurobonds still in demand, gauges such as South African and Turkey CDS under control the latter 5 Year insurance at an impressive 211. The new Ziraat $ 22's continues to do well the discounted issue price to give a 5.25% yield has tightened down to around 5.10% and remained supported. As we end the month Primary will be limited. Foreign Exchange U.S GDP and month end flows. U.K GDP puts breaks on Cable, a subdued maybe softer dollar tone so far. EUR/USD support 1.0855 1.0820 resistance 1.0890 1.0930 GBP/USD support 1.2870 1.2850 resistance 1.2935 1.2960 Economic Indicators Area EC UK UK UK UK UK EC EC US US CA US CA US US US Data M3 Money Supply YoY BBA Loans For House Purchase GDP QoQ GDP YoY Index of Services MoM Index of Services 3M/3M CPI Estimate YoY CPI Core YoY Employment Cost Index GDP Annualised QoQ GDP MoM Personal Consumption GDP YoY GDP Price Index Chicago Purchasing Manager U. of Mich. Sentiment Date Mar Mar Q1 Q1 Feb Feb Apr Apr Q1 Q1 Feb Q1 Feb Q1 Apr Apr Previous 4.7% 42613 0.7% 1.9% -0.1% 0.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 2.1% 0.6% 3.5% 2.3% 2.1% 57.7 98.0 Expected 4.7% 42000 0.4% 2.2% 0.3% 0.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 2.6% 2.0% 56.2 98.0 Today's Tipples  Former South African Finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, says ANC will lose elections in 2019 without change  U.K GDP comes in a tenth lower than forecasts  Libya's biggest Oil field , Sharara, set to reopen say reports  Erdogan's senior adviser, Cemil Ertem, says 50bps hike in the LLW may have been unnecessary WWW.BACB.CO.UK
2. FX Markets Bond Markets GBP /USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/EUR Close 1.2904 1.0873 111.26 1.1868 Today 1.2924 1.0895 111.30 1.1862 USD/CHF USD/MAD USD/TND USD/LYD USD / TRY USD/NGN USD/ZAR 0.9941 9.9357 2.4588 1.4181 3.5610 309.50 13.35 0.9935 9.9198 2.4534 1.4134 3.5608 315.00 13.3037 Close 51.44 5668.75 1264.30 17.27 1924.00 431.25 15.43 Today 51.74 5668.75 1266.59 17.39 1924.00 433.00 15.50 US 10 Year UK 10 Year GER 10 Year Today 2.29 1.08 0.32 Equity Markets FTSE 100 S&P 500 DOW JONES Euro Stoxx Nikkei Shanghai Comp Close 7237.17 2388.77 20981.33 3563.29 19251.87 3152.19 Today 7219.00 Ldn PM Ldn PM 3561.30 Closed Closed Commodities Brent Crude Copper Gold Silver Aluminium Wheat Sugar This document has been prepared for information purposes only and is issued by British Arab Commercial Bank plc (BACB). It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication only. It does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire, securities in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Any information contained in this document does not take into account any particular investment objectives, or other financial situation which may be relevant to any particular investor to whom this information may be sent. As a result, investors using the information should assess whether it is appropriate in light of their own individual circumstances before acting on it. The information in this document is based on information obtained from sources believed by BACB to be reliable, but BACB does not represent or warrant, nor accepts responsibility, as to its completeness or accuracy. If you are to rely on the information you are strongly recommended to take your own independent advice. The information on which this document is based may change and BACB is under no obligation to update the information. Sources of information obtained from third parties are cited as appropriate. Copyright (c) British Arab Commercial Bank plc 2013, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, or on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of British Arab Commercial Bank plc. British Arab Commercial Bank plc Registered Office: 8-10 Mansion House Place, London EC4N 8BJ. Registered in England Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority - Firm Reference Number 204564 WWW.BACB.CO.UK