Treasury Morning Brief - 4 May

Transcription

1. TREASURY MM ORNING BRIEF TREASURY ORNING BRIEF 04 May 2017 Treasury Sales +44 207 648 7786/89 - Reuters BACM Market Report Markets It might be May the 4th but I will not be referencing Star Wars. A long time ago in a parody far far away....interest rates were on a different planet, last night, as expected the FOMC left rates untouched but we are led to believe there is a new hope. Master Yellen could be playing mind tricks, recent slowdown in U.S growth only a temporary phantom menace she will have us believe, "fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption" but impossible to see the future is. The door for a June hike is open that's for sure, implied probability has risen to nearly 94% for that force to awaken, I could be a rogue one but I'm not so convinced. What markets do know, or have at least been unable to evader given Fed clone like rhetoric is we are on a gradual path, a moderate pace rather than light speed. European Equity markets are in empire strike back mode, decent earnings notably from Adidas and HSBC. CAC 40 return of the recent high, a nine year sky walker above 5,300, Macron once more playing emperor over Le Pen. On the dark side are miners, shares decline, metals extending the sell-off, Iron Ore storm trooping lower as supply continues to outweigh demand. Core Bond yields continue to push higher, investor sentiment remaining confident, Fed and France providing just enough force. EM Credit As you were, carry on troops. That's the markets first order it would seem. Ahead of tomorrow's U.S Jobs report all is well, yes that June door is open along with the windows I might add but as for deterring those with money on the hip the attraction of EM yield is strong with this one. Sovereign paper from Turkey could be a little cheaper today, CDS still circa 200, the CBRT continues to push the markets towards the LLW which is at 12.25%. South Africa Eurobond sovereign paper in a similar move lower this morning as the ZAR gives up ground against the dollar, President Zuma picking himself up, gathering support. Still nothing of note on the Primary front, pipeline filling though, Senegal and Ivory Coast expected to be first of out of the blocks. Foreign Exchange Still in consolidation status best covers the dollar. Cable is making an attempt on 1.2900 again after services PMI data followed suit to post well. Strong Eurozone PMI has taken the single currency with it but as said consolidation ahead of NFP's will keep things within range today. EUR/USD support 1.0875 1.0850 resistance 1.0900 1.0940 GBP/USD support 1.2830 1.2800 resistance 1.2920 1.2960 Economic Indicators Area EC EC UK UK UK EC EC US US US US US Data Markit Eurozone Services PMI Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Mortgage Approvals Retail Sales MoM Retail Sales YoY Trade Balance Initial Jobless Claims Factory Orders Durable Goods Orders Durable Goods Ex Transportation Date Apr Apr Apr Apr Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Mar Mar Mar Previous 56.2 56.7 55.0 54.9 68.3k 0.7% 1.8% -$43.6b 257k 1.0% 0.7% -0.2% Expected 56.2 56.7 54.5 54.5 67.2k 0.1% 2.1% -$44.5b 248k 0.4% 0.7% - Today's Tipples  Ecobank plans to exit businesses that are losing money so says CEO Ade Ayeyemi. The pan African lender has been hit with a revenue drop and impairments mostly in Nigeria  Ghana is considering lowering Cocoa prices to help local processors . This should up capacity.  SocGen reaches settlement with Libyan Investment Authority WWW.BACB.CO.UK
2. FX Markets Bond Markets GBP /USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/EUR Close 1.2867 1.0886 112.75 1.1821 Today 1.2898 1.0924 112.86 1.1808 USD/CHF USD/MAD USD/TND USD/LYD USD / TRY USD/NGN USD/ZAR 0.9948 9.9221 2.4503 1.4154 3.5353 318.31 13.44 0.9921 9.8991 2.4669 1.4033 3.5502 310.75 13.4999 Close 50.79 5566.75 1238.17 16.47 1924.00 454.00 15.77 Today 50.52 5566.75 1235.69 16.53 1924.00 450.75 15.75 US 10 Year UK 10 Year GER 10 Year Today 2.33 1.10 0.37 Equity Markets FTSE 100 S&P 500 DOW JONES Euro Stoxx Nikkei Shanghai Comp Close 7234.53 2388.13 20957.90 3586.25 19445.70 3135.35 Today 7258.20 Ldn PM Ldn PM 3611.39 Closed Closed Commodities Brent Crude Copper Gold Silver Aluminium Wheat Sugar This document has been prepared for information purposes only and is issued by British Arab Commercial Bank plc (BACB). It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication only. It does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire, securities in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Any information contained in this document does not take into account any particular investment objectives, or other financial situation which may be relevant to any particular investor to whom this information may be sent. As a result, investors using the information should assess whether it is appropriate in light of their own individual circumstances before acting on it. The information in this document is based on information obtained from sources believed by BACB to be reliable, but BACB does not represent or warrant, nor accepts responsibility, as to its completeness or accuracy. If you are to rely on the information you are strongly recommended to take your own independent advice. The information on which this document is based may change and BACB is under no obligation to update the information. Sources of information obtained from third parties are cited as appropriate. Copyright (c) British Arab Commercial Bank plc 2013, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, or on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of British Arab Commercial Bank plc. British Arab Commercial Bank plc Registered Office: 8-10 Mansion House Place, London EC4N 8BJ. Registered in England Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority - Firm Reference Number 204564 WWW.BACB.CO.UK