Treasury Brief - 31 May

Transcription

1. TREASURY MORNING BRIEF 31 May 2016 Treasury Sales +44 207 648 7786/89 - Reuters BACM Market Report EM Credit After non -event Friday and a long weekend we open up this half term week much the same as last Thursday! Brent crude seems to be wavering between $49 and $50 a barrell giving sub sahara no real driver. Turkey 5yr CDS unch at 274 bps. New Turkish Sukuk holding investor conference calls today, would assume the books to open later today or tommorow. Rates Fed Chair Janet Yellen in an interview on Friday suggested that the US economy would warrant a rate hike in the coming months, making Fridays payroll number all the more important. Fed funds futures contracts are giving the chance of a June hike at 30%, up from 12% only a month ago. Asian equities closed higher, most notably the Shanghai Composite index up 3.3%, European indices down slightly at time of writing. US 10 year yields approaching monthly highs, currently 1.87%. Foreign Exchange With most of the market on Holiday yesterday, Yellen doing her best to cover all basis's friday evening, the USD stayed poised for a continuation to the weaker side. Alas no, stops back through 111.00 in USD/JPY and a break of support at 1.4600 in Cable already seen so far in London, does all have a profit taking look about it ahead of the data due this week. EUR/USD support 1.1100 1.1070 resistance 1.1200 1.1225 GBP/USD support 1.4600 1.4555 resistance 1.4700 1.4740 Economic Indicators Area EC EC US US Data Unemployment rate CPI Core YoY PCE Core YoY Chicago Purchasing Manager FX Markets GBP/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/EUR USD/CHF USD/MAD USD/TND USD/LYD USD / TRY USD/NGN USD/ZAR Date Apr May Apr May Previous 10.2% 0.7% 1.6% 50.4 Expected 10.2% 0.8% 1.6% 50.5 Bond Markets Today 1.4640 1.1138 111.14 1.3144 0.9933 9.7529 2.1024 1.3761 2.9555 199.08 15.83 Dec-15 1.4736 1.0862 120.20 1.3560 0.9998 9.9291 2.0408 1.3871 2.9170 199.30 15.48 US 10 Year UK 10 Year GER 10 Year Today 1.87 1.47 0.18 Dec-15 2.27 1.96 0.63 Equity Markets FTSE 100 S&P 500 DOW JONES Euro Stoxx Nikkei Shanghai Comp Today 6270.79 2099.06 17873.22 3090.01 17068.02 2822.45 Dec-15 6242.32 2043.94 17425.03 3267.52 19033.71 3539.18 WWW.BACB.CO.UK
2. Commodities Brent Crude Copper Gold Silver Aluminium Wheat Sugar Today 49 .76 4720.50 1205.25 16.00 1556.00 481.50 17.52 Dec-15 37.28 4705.75 1062.19 13.88 1507.00 483.25 14.64 This document has been prepared for information purposes only and is issued by British Arab Commercial Bank plc (BACB). It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication only. It does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire, securities in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Any information contained in this document does not take into account any particular investment objectives, or other financial situation which may be relevant to any particular investor to whom this information may be sent. As a result, investors using the information should assess whether it is appropriate in light of their own individual circumstances before acting on it. The information in this document is based on information obtained from sources believed by BACB to be reliable, but BACB does not represent or warrant, nor accepts responsibility, as to its completeness or accuracy. If you are to rely on the information you are strongly recommended to take your own independent advice. The information on which this document is based may change and BACB is under no obligation to update the information. Sources of information obtained from third parties are cited as appropriate. Copyright (c) British Arab Commercial Bank plc 2013, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, or on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of British Arab Commercial Bank plc. British Arab Commercial Bank plc Registered Office: 8-10 Mansion House Place, London EC4N 8BJ. Registered in England Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority - Firm Reference Number 204564 WWW.BACB.CO.UK