Treasury Morning Brief - 10 May

Transcription

1. TREASURY MM ORNING BRIEF TREASURY ORNING BRIEF 10 May 2017 Treasury Sales +44 207 648 7786/89 - Reuters BACM Market Report Markets President Trump clearly thought things were too quiet, a game of 'Russian Roulette' overdue. I can imagine President Trump donning a false moustache and white vest 'Queen' playing full blast in the Oval Office 'Another One Bites The Dust' "Oh! Let's go!" the Mercury level has certainly shot up. Markets are rattled with the sacking of FBI Director James Comey amid the agency's investigation of alleged Russian interference in last year's election. Equity markets are modestly lower as is the greenback, a surprising reaction to be honest, certainly when the political tectonic plates get moved as they have done overnight. North Korea more in tune with the great late David Bowie's 'Ashes to Ashes' than Freddie M suggesting they are "Ready to turn to Ashes" U.S strategic assets, the rumour from Ground Control in Pyongyang they will push forward with another nuclear test. So from 'Moustaches to Ashes' 'funk to funky' Core Bond Yields have moved lower so for sure there is some caution in the markets. WTI Crude June delivery has pushed a little higher costing around $46.30 for a barrel, some support seen at $46 as industry data shows U.S stockpiles have declined, both Saudi Arabia and Russia have said they could extend cuts into 2018, future prices for the black Gold still look heavy. EM Credit You could argue my markets section this morning paints a dull picture for Investors, I didn't even mention that recent economic data from China has been relatively poor, fact is Investors continue to shrug the shoulders and move on, it's all just white noise as cash gets put to work. EM Credit has had a great year so far, on the one hand a hike cycle from the Fed is a step towards normality, a steepening curve the consequence, viewed as good for the global economy wetting Investor appetite, buy some yield, on the other hand if we move in a gradual way forward on rates slowly ease back on QE it's a sign of global normalisation, wetting investor appetite, buy some...You get the point! So EM Credit continues to offer value, not a one way street for sure, picking up Eurobonds at the right level still key to success. Finansbank are next up for Turkish financials, first issue in three years, meetings to conclude today a $ issue expected to follow. The pipeline continues to fill, Oman rumoured to be considering a USD sukuk. Foreign Exchange The greenback has made a decent effort so far this morning to regain the little lost ground seen overnight. Against the majors the dollar has held its own, if anything the EM currencies have pushed it harder. EUR/USD support 1.0865 1.0845 resistance 1.0900 1.0930 GBP/USD support 1.2950 1.2925 resistance 1.3000 1.3030 Economic Indicators Area US US US US US US Data MBA Mortgage Applications Import Price Index MoM Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM Import Price Index YoY Export Price Index MoM Export Price Index YoY Date May Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Previous -0.1% -0.2% 0.2% 4.2% 0.2% 3.6% Expected 0.1% 0.1% 3.6% 0.2% - Today's Tipples  Tunisia sets up task force with Nasdaq Dubai to issue Sukuk  Barclays Africa Group Ltd said to be front-runner for Mozambique's Moza Banco SA  IMF to decide on extension of Ghana program in June  Egypt's monthly inflation rate fell for a third month. Consumer prices rose 1.7 percent in April from a month earlier the slowest pace since October, before the Central Bank EGP float WWW.BACB.CO.UK
2. FX Markets Bond Markets GBP /USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/EUR Close 1.2934 1.0874 113.98 1.1895 Today 1.2948 1.0870 113.91 1.1912 USD/CHF USD/MAD USD/TND USD/LYD USD / TRY USD/NGN USD/ZAR 1.0074 9.9326 2.4478 1.4174 3.6240 317.49 13.63 1.0066 9.9319 2.4583 1.4037 3.6057 317.49 13.5572 Close 48.73 5486.25 1221.23 16.19 1870.00 429.50 15.44 Today 49.18 5486.25 1222.80 16.20 1870.00 429.25 15.48 US 10 Year UK 10 Year GER 10 Year Today 2.38 1.19 0.42 Equity Markets FTSE 100 S&P 500 DOW JONES Euro Stoxx Nikkei Shanghai Comp Close 7342.21 2399.38 20975.78 3649.08 19843.00 3080.53 Today 7345.66 Ldn PM Ldn PM 3638.15 Closed Closed Commodities Brent Crude Copper Gold Silver Aluminium Wheat Sugar This document has been prepared for information purposes only and is issued by British Arab Commercial Bank plc (BACB). It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication only. It does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire, securities in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Any information contained in this document does not take into account any particular investment objectives, or other financial situation which may be relevant to any particular investor to whom this information may be sent. As a result, investors using the information should assess whether it is appropriate in light of their own individual circumstances before acting on it. The information in this document is based on information obtained from sources believed by BACB to be reliable, but BACB does not represent or warrant, nor accepts responsibility, as to its completeness or accuracy. If you are to rely on the information you are strongly recommended to take your own independent advice. The information on which this document is based may change and BACB is under no obligation to update the information. Sources of information obtained from third parties are cited as appropriate. Copyright (c) British Arab Commercial Bank plc 2013, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, or on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of British Arab Commercial Bank plc. British Arab Commercial Bank plc Registered Office: 8-10 Mansion House Place, London EC4N 8BJ. Registered in England Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority - Firm Reference Number 204564 WWW.BACB.CO.UK