Treasury Morning Brief - 27 April

Transcription

1. TREASURY MM ORNING BRIEF TREASURY ORNING BRIEF 27 April 2017 Treasury Sales +44 207 648 7786/89 - Reuters BACM Market Report Markets Donald's Tax plan was all a bit Nafta ! Once again a lack of detail . President Trump seems to be writing a cook book full of great looking dishes only the recipes have been left out. It could be the recent experience in Congress has deterred him from over seasoning before the dish is served to the critics, problem with that is markets begin to take what's on the menu with a pinch of salt. As a side order the Trump administration has also decided to keep the Nafta in the mix, as a result the greenback has risen like a badly kneaded dough. Plenty of economic data out today the main course being the ECB with a Mr Draghi press conference Q&A the cherry on top. Markets know the Asset purchase target will be reduced to EUR60bn, nothing spicy expected on the current rate settings, Super Mario likely to be in upbeat mode , France will no doubt get a mention as a sweetener to pro European forecasts although the ECB president could also be reluctant to sugar coat prospects too much, a steady bake the probable serving. EM Credit The Late Liquidity Window was significantly upped yesterday by the CBRT, 50bp move to 12.25%, repurchase rate remaining at 8%. The 'stealth' move has pushed the average cost of funding up and moved shorter dated TRY yields closer to their longer dated counterparts, focus turns to tomorrows Inflation report, consumer prices for March posted at 11.29% the highest since 2008. Primary taking a breather this morning with the ECB the dominating force. Foreign Exchange Weaker dollar, Nafta and lack of Tax detail to blame. Draghi key for EUR, GBP excited on PM May prospects. EUR/USD support 1.0860 1.0815 resistance 1.0920 1.0950 GBP/USD support 1.2830 1.2800 resistance 1.2900 1.2935 Economic Indicators Area EC EC UK EC EC EC EC GE GE US US US US US US US US Data Economic Confidence Consumer Confidence CBI Retailing Reported Sales ECB Main Refinancing Rate ECB Marginal Lending Facility ECB Deposit Facility Rate ECB Asset Purchase Target CPI MoM CPI YoY Advance Goods Trade Balance Wholesale Inventories MoM Durable Goods Orders Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Pending Home Sales MoM Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Date Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Mar Apr Previous 105.1 -3.6 9 0.00% 0.25% -0.40% EU50b 0.2% 1.6% -$63.9b 0.4% 1.8% -0.1% 244k 1979k 5.5% 20 Expected -3.6 6 0.00% 0.25% -0.40% EU60b -0.1% 1.9% -$65.2b 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 245k 2007k -1.0% 17 Today's Tipples  Euro area economic confidence at highest in 10 years 107.4..Wow!  OPEC plans talks with Russia to discuss extending output cuts as pressure on prices mounts  Ivery Coast said to plan $1bn Eurobond by end of July 17  Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari is seeking lawmakers apoproval pf a $7bn borrowing plan to extend through 2018 WWW.BACB.CO.UK
2. FX Markets Bond Markets GBP /USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/EUR Close 1.2848 1.0904 111.06 1.1783 Today 1.2897 1.0892 111.34 1.1841 USD/CHF USD/MAD USD/TND USD/LYD USD / TRY USD/NGN USD/ZAR 0.9933 9.9166 2.4687 1.4164 3.5785 310.50 13.28 0.9936 9.9209 2.4665 1.4127 3.5619 310.50 13.2744 Close 51.82 5689.00 1269.22 17.49 1964.50 426.50 15.57 Today 51.23 5689.00 1263.33 17.44 1964.50 428.25 15.69 US 10 Year UK 10 Year GER 10 Year Today 2.31 1.08 0.35 Equity Markets FTSE 100 S&P 500 DOW JONES Euro Stoxx Nikkei Shanghai Comp Close 7288.72 2387.45 20975.09 3578.71 19289.43 3140.85 Today 7244.94 Ldn PM Ldn PM 3561.84 Closed Closed Commodities Brent Crude Copper Gold Silver Aluminium Wheat Sugar This document has been prepared for information purposes only and is issued by British Arab Commercial Bank plc (BACB). It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication only. It does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire, securities in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Any information contained in this document does not take into account any particular investment objectives, or other financial situation which may be relevant to any particular investor to whom this information may be sent. As a result, investors using the information should assess whether it is appropriate in light of their own individual circumstances before acting on it. The information in this document is based on information obtained from sources believed by BACB to be reliable, but BACB does not represent or warrant, nor accepts responsibility, as to its completeness or accuracy. If you are to rely on the information you are strongly recommended to take your own independent advice. The information on which this document is based may change and BACB is under no obligation to update the information. Sources of information obtained from third parties are cited as appropriate. Copyright (c) British Arab Commercial Bank plc 2013, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, or on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of British Arab Commercial Bank plc. British Arab Commercial Bank plc Registered Office: 8-10 Mansion House Place, London EC4N 8BJ. Registered in England Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority - Firm Reference Number 204564 WWW.BACB.CO.UK