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Pakistan: Monetary Policy Information Compendium - September 2017

IM Research
By IM Research
8 years ago
Pakistan: Monetary Policy Information Compendium - September 2017

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  1. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Consolidated by Statistics & DWH Department STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN
  2. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Tables and Graphs Real Sector  Growth …………………………………………………………………........  Saving and Investment…………………………………………………  Inflation …………………………………………………………………….. 1 3 4 External Sector  Balance of Payments …………………………………………………...  Trade and Foreign Investment………………………………………  Global Economy …………………………………………………………. 8 9 10 Fiscal Accounts and Debt  Revenues, Expenditures, and Fiscal Balances ………………..  Government Domestic Debt ……………………………………........  External Debt ……………………………………………………………...  Total Debt ………………………………………………………………….... 12 13 14 15 Monetary Sector  Monetary and Credit Aggregates ………………………………..…  Private Sector Credit …………………………………………………....  Key Indicators of Monetary Sector…………………………………  Trends In Monetary Aggregates……………………………..……… 16 18 19 20 Financial Markets  Money Market …………………………………………………………....  Foreign Exchange Market ……………………………………………  Capital Market …………………………………………………………....  Financial Soundness Indicators …………………………………… 21 27 29 30 II
  3. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Growth Growth in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Sector (percent) Groups Cumulative change during (Jul) Weights FY18 FY17 FY17 FY16 Overall 70.2 13.0 1.5 5.6 3.1 Textile 20.9 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.4 Food, beverages and tobacco 12.4 19.0 -5.5 11.5 0.6 Petroleum products 5.4 4.9 1.4 3.4 -0.5 Iron and steel products 5.4 46.4 19.0 20.5 -9.3 Non-metallic mineral products 5.4 37.9 6.4 4.4 10.0 Automobile 4.6 42.6 -0.1 11.2 16.1 Fertilizer 4.4 -0.8 1.0 1.7 13.9 Pharmaceuticals 3.6 11.1 6.5 9.2 6.7 Paper and board 2.3 11.2 34.3 7.2 -1.5 Electronics 2.0 -0.9 9.0 17.0 -1.8 Chemicals 1.7 5.1 -5.0 -2.1 8.1 Leather products 0.9 2.5 -8.5 -17.0 6.9 Wood products 0.6 10.9 -97.9 -93.7 -65.8 Engineering products 0.4 22.0 -21.5 4.0 -14.8 Rubber products 0.3 4.5 8.7 -0.1 7.3 Overall LSM Growth (YoY) Overall LSM Growth (Cumulative) FY17 FY16 FY17 7 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 6 percent 5 4 3 2 1 Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Oct Nov Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Feb Mar Jan Dec Oct Nov Sep Aug 0 Jul percent FY16 Major Crops Production percent change (million tons) FY18 FY16 FY15 10.7 9.9 14.0 73.6 65.5 62.8 6.9 6.8 6.8 7.0 26.5 25.8 25.6 25.1 Cotton1 13.6 Sugarcane 70.3 Rice Wheat 1 T T FY17 Area under cultivation FY17 Over FY16 (million hectares) Yield percent change (Kg/hectare) FY17 FY16 7.6 2.5 2.9 -14.2 729 581 25.5 12.4 1.2 1.1 7.6 60,482 57,897 4.5 0.7 2.7 2.7 -0.5 2,514 2,483 1.3 0.5 9.1 9.2 -1.9 2,845 2,779 2.4 FY17 Over FY16 FY17 percent change FY16 FY17 Over FY16 Cotton production is stated in million bales of 375 lbs each. : Target Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and Planning Commission of Pakistan. Real Sector 1
  4. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Production Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 2005-06 (percent) Growth FY17P Share Contribution2 Growth FY16 FY15 Growth in Real GDP at basic price (percent) Actual Agriculture of which 3.5 19.5 0.7 0.3 2.1 Important crops 4.1 4.7 0.2 -5.5 -1.6 Other crops 0.2 2.2 0.0 0.6 2.5 6.0 Livestock 3.4 11.4 0.4 3.4 4.0 4.0 Industry of which 5.0 20.9 1.1 5.8 5.2 Manufacturing 5.3 13.4 0.7 3.7 3.9 4.9 10.7 0.5 2.9 3.3 Large-scale Small-scale Construction 8.2 1.8 0.1 8.2 8.2 9.0 2.7 0.2 14.6 7.3 Target 9.0 8.0 7.0 5.0 4.3 4.4 FY13 FY14 5.5 5.7 6.0 FY16 R FY17 P FY18 T 5.1 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 FY15 Growth in Agriculture (percent) Actual Target 9.0 Services of which Wholesale & retail trade Transport Storage and Communications 6.0 59.6 3.5 5.5 4.4 6.8 18.5 1.2 4.3 2.6 7.0 3.9 13.3 0.5 4.8 5.1 5.0 10.8 3.4 0.3 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.6 0.5 9.7 4.8 Real GDP (basic prices) 5.3 100.0 5.3 4.5 4.1 Real GDP (market prices) 5.7 106.2 6.0 5.5 4.7 P R FY15 Finance & insurance General Government Services FY17 FY16 Real GDP (bp, billion Rs) 11,697 11,111 10,632 Nominal GDP (mp, billion Rs) 31,862 29,103 27,443 304 279 271 Nominal GDP (mp, billion US$)1 Consumption 6.0 0.0 FY13 8.0 FY17P Share Contribution 4 Growth 4.0 FY16 FY15 3.0 Target 7.7 7.3 4.8 1.0 2.9 Government 10.7 11.8 1.1 8.2 8.1 Fixed capital formation 8.3 14.7 1.1 6.7 15.8 4.1 10.6 0.4 6.2 12.1 9.0 20.7 4.1 0.7 8.1 28.6 8.0 5.7 1.6 0.1 5.5 4.7 -70.8 -8.5 -3.7 -51.2 -15.8 -0.2 9.1 0.0 -1.6 -6.3 24.0 17.1 3.5 11.7 -1.6 5.7 100.0 5.7 5.5 4.7 3.8 2.0 6.9 0.0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 R FY17 P FY18 T Growth in Services (percent) Actual 7.0 6.0 4.6 4.5 5.2 FY13 FY14 FY15 Target 5.7 5.7 FY16 R FY17 P 6.4 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Indirect Taxes 10.9 6.5 0.7 17.6 10.7 Subsidies -1.8 0.7 0.0 -20.3 -21.2 5.3 94.2 5.0 4.5 4.1 8.8 108.0 8.8 7.0 5.1 Total domestic demand FY18 T 5.0 6.4 3 FY17 P 6.4 6.0 79.9 GDP (basic prices) FY16 R 6.8 7.0 8.6 GDP (market prices) FY15 Actual 3.5 Net exports of goods and nonfactor services Exports of goods and non-factor services Imports of goods and non-factor services FY14 9.0 7.1 Changes in stocks 3.5 1.0 7.5 Public plus general government 3.5 3.3 2.0 91.7 Private 3.9 3.6 3.0 8.9 Private 4.0 4.0 Growth in Industry (percent) Expenditure Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 2005-06 (percent) Growth 8.0 0.0 FY18 T 1 GDP in dollar terms is calculated using weighted average exchange rate during the year. 2 Contributions in GDP growth are based on real GDP (bp). 3 Domestic demand is calculated as sum of consumption, fixed capital formation and change in stock expenditures on real GDP. 4 Contributions in GDP growth are based on total domestic demand except Indirect taxes and Subsidies. T : Target Real Sector 2
  5. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Saving and Investment Saving and Investment (at current market prices) as percent of GDP A. Investment Gross fixed investment Private sector Public Sector incl. general government Actual Trends in Saving and Investment FY17P FY16R FY15 17.2 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.6 14.2 14.0 13.9 11.2 9.9 10.2 10.2 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 14.6 13.1 14.3 14.5 - - - 7.5 -2.6 -2.7 -1.3 -1.1 Investment Savings 18.0 16.0 percent of GDP FY18 Target 14.0 12.0 Change in capital stocks B. National savings C. Domestic savings Saving investment gap (B - A) 10.0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 R FY18 T Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors 1 (at Current Market prices) FY17P Percent share in total Percent of GDP Percent of GDP FY16 FY15 Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors1 Agriculture 2.9 26.5 2.9 3.0 Mining and quarrying 0.3 2.8 0.3 0.3 15.0 Manufacturing 1.6 14.5 1.6 1.6 12.0 Construction 0.3 2.6 0.2 0.1 Electricity and gas 0.6 5.3 0.6 0.8 Transport and communication 1.6 14.9 1.8 2.0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.3 2.5 0.3 0.3 3.0 Finance and insurance 0.2 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 Agriculture Manufacturing Ownership of Dwellings Services Ownership of dwellings Services Total 1 1.9 17.8 2.0 2.1 1.2 11.0 1.2 1.1 10.9 100.0 11.0 11.4 as percent of GDP Others 9.0 6.0 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 R FY17 P Economic category wise distribution of government's gross fixed investment is not available. P : Provisional; R: Revised; Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Planning Commission of Pakistan, Real Sector 3
  6. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Inflation (Calculated from price indices with base year 2007-08) CPI Inflation 3.2 Year on Year Sep-16 0.2 0.3 3.9 3.4 Oct-16 0.8 0.6 4.2 3.6 Nov-16 0.2 0.4 3.8 3.7 Dec-16 -0.7 0.4 3.7 3.8 Jan-17 0.2 0.1 3.7 3.8 Feb-17 0.3 0.9 4.2 3.8 Mar-17 0.8 0.7 4.9 3.9 2 Apr-17 1.4 0.4 4.8 3.9 1 May-17 0.0 0.3 5.0 4.1 0 Jun-17 -0.4 -0.3 3.9 4.2 -1 Jul-17 0.3 -0.4 2.9 4.1 Aug-17 0.2 0.1 3.4 4.0 3-year average for August 0.0 -0.1 2.9 -1.4 3.4 6 4 Jun-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jun-16 (percent change) CPI Food Inflation 2.7 YoY Sep-16 0.1 0.3 4.0 3.0 Oct-16 0.8 0.7 4.4 3.4 Nov-16 0.2 0.2 3.3 3.5 Dec-16 -1.9 0.2 3.0 3.5 Jan-17 -1.0 -0.5 2.6 3.5 Feb-17 0.3 1.5 3.7 3.5 Mar-17 1.9 1.1 5.0 3.6 2 Apr-17 1.7 0.3 4.4 3.6 1 May-17 -0.2 0.1 4.9 3.8 Jun-17 -1.1 -1.2 2.4 3.8 Jul-17 0.0 -1.3 -0.1 3.4 Aug-17 0.4 0.0 1.2 3.2 3-year average for August -0.1 -0.5 1.7 7 6 percent 5 4 3 0 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Aug-16 Jun-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Aug-15 -1 (percent change) CPI Non-Food Inflation 0.2 0.3 3.7 3.6 Sep-16 0.2 0.3 3.8 3.7 Oct-16 0.8 0.6 4.1 3.8 Nov-16 0.2 0.6 4.1 3.9 Dec-16 0.2 0.5 4.2 3.9 Jan-17 1.0 0.5 4.4 4.0 Feb-17 0.3 0.5 4.6 4.0 Mar-17 0.1 0.4 4.9 4.1 2 Apr-17 1.2 0.4 5.1 4.2 1 May-17 0.2 0.4 5.1 4.3 0 Jun-17 0.1 0.3 5.0 4.4 -1 Jul-17 0.6 0.2 5.1 4.5 Aug-17 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.0 3.8 4.6 YoY 12 months moving average 8 7 6 4 Feb-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Aug-16 Jun-16 Apr-16 3 Feb-16 percent 5 Dec-15 CPI - Non Food (62.52 % weight in basket) 12 month moving average 8 Aug-16 3-year average for August Aug-16 3 Aug-15 percent 5 Oct-15 -0.9 7 Oct-15 CPI - Food (37.48 % weight in basket) Aug-16 12 Month Moving Average 8 Apr-16 3.6 Feb-16 -0.4 (percent change) 12M moving 3 4 YoY average Oct-15 MoM SA -0.3 2 Aug-15 MoM Aug-16 1 Dec-15 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. 1 Month-on-Month; 2 Month-on-month changes in seasonally adjusted series; 3 Year-on-Year; 4 These changes are calculated on the basis of 12 month average of CPI over the 12 month average of preceding year. Real Sector 4
  7. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Core Inflation - Non-food non-energy (53.52% weight in basket) (percent) 12M moving MoM YoY average Core Inflation- Non-Food Non-Energy Aug-16 0.2 4.6 4.2 Sep-16 0.3 4.8 4.4 Oct-16 0.9 5.1 4.5 Nov-16 0.2 5.3 4.6 7 Dec-16 0.1 5.2 4.7 6 Jan-17 1.1 5.4 4.8 Feb-17 0.2 5.3 4.9 Mar-17 0.1 5.2 4.9 Apr-17 1.3 5.5 5.0 May-17 0.2 5.5 5.1 Jun-17 0.1 5.5 5.2 Jul-17 0.7 5.6 5.3 Aug-17 0.1 0.1 5.5 4.7 5.3 Aug-16 0.1 3.5 3.3 Sep-16 0.1 3.7 3.4 Oct-16 0.6 3.8 3.4 8 Nov-16 0.2 3.8 3.5 7 Dec-16 0.1 3.7 3.7 Jan-17 0.6 3.8 3.8 Feb-17 0.2 4.1 3.8 Mar-17 0.2 4.5 3.7 Apr-17 0.8 4.8 3.7 May-17 0.2 4.8 3.9 Jun-17 0.0 4.2 3.8 Jul-17 0.4 4.0 4.0 Aug-17 0.1 0.1 4.2 3.5 4.0 3-year average for August percent 12 month moving average 5 4 3 Jun-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Oct-15 Dec-15 Aug-15 2 (percent change) percent 5 4 3 Jun-17 Aug-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 Jun-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Oct-15 Aug-15 2 (percent change) 12M moving YoY average -0.1 2.8 1.0 -0.2 0.3 2.6 1.4 Dec-16 -0.1 0.7 3.1 1.7 Jan-17 0.5 0.6 4.2 2.0 Feb-17 0.5 0.8 5.3 2.4 Mar-17 0.7 0.6 6.4 2.9 Apr-17 0.9 0.3 6.0 3.4 May-17 -0.2 -0.2 5.2 3.8 Jun-17 -0.5 -1.1 3.3 4.0 Jul-17 -0.2 -0.6 0.7 3.8 Aug-17 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 1.0 0.5 3.6 7 5 3 1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -9 Apr-17 0.0 Nov-16 12 months moving average 9 Feb-17 Oct-16 WPI Inflation YoY Dec-16 0.6 Oct-16 3.4 Aug-16 0.0 -0.2 Jun-16 3.5 -0.5 Apr-16 -0.4 Sep-16 Feb-16 MoM SA 0.0 Dec-15 MoM Aug-16 Oct-15 Wholesale Price Index (WPI) 12 month moving average 6 Aug-15 3-year average for August Core Inflation- 20% Trimmed Mean YoY percent Core - 20% Trimmed YoY 8 3-year average for August Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Real Sector 5
  8. Monetary Policy Information Compendium WPI Inflation - Food 4 .3 Oct-16 0.1 0.2 6.9 5.0 Nov-16 -1.1 -0.1 6.5 5.4 Dec-16 -1.4 0.2 5.9 5.6 Jan-17 0.1 0.4 5.9 5.8 Feb-17 0.1 0.7 5.9 5.9 Mar-17 1.1 0.8 7.0 6.1 -3 Apr-17 2.0 0.9 6.5 6.3 -5 May-17 -0.5 -0.5 5.2 6.3 -7 Jun-17 -0.9 -2.1 1.7 6.0 -9 Jul-17 0.4 -0.6 -0.7 5.2 Aug-17 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 3.4 4.8 YoY -2.5 Oct-16 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -2.0 Nov-16 0.5 0.6 -0.4 -1.6 7 Dec-16 0.9 1.1 0.9 -1.3 Jan-17 0.8 0.8 2.8 -0.8 Feb-17 0.8 0.8 4.8 -0.3 Mar-17 0.3 0.4 6.0 0.4 -3 Apr-17 0.0 -0.1 5.5 1.1 -5 May-17 0.1 0.0 5.1 1.8 -7 Jun-17 -0.1 -0.4 4.5 2.5 -9 Jul-17 -0.7 -0.7 1.9 2.7 Aug-17 0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 1.6 -1.5 2.7 Jun-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 1 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 -1 Aug-15 percent 3 (percent change) Target vs. Actual CPI Inflation CPI WPI Headline Food Non Food FY13 7.4 7.1 7.5 7.3 FY14 8.6 9.0 8.3 8.2 FY15 4.5 3.5 5.3 -0.3 FY16 2.9 2.1 3.4 -1.1 Actual Target 15 12.0 12 9.5 9 8.0 8.0 6.0 6 FY17 4.2 3.8 4.4 4.0 FY17 (Jul-Aug) 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.3 FY18 (Jul-Aug) 3.2 0.6 5.0 0.8 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Real Sector Feb-17 Dec-16 5 percent Average CPI and WPI Inflation 12 months moving average Feb-17 0.7 WPI Inflation - Non Food -3.2 9 3-year average for August Oct-16 Aug-15 percent (percent change) 1.6 Dec-16 -0.6 1 -1 Oct-16 -1.1 0.2 3 Aug-16 Sep-16 0.5 5 Jun-16 WPI - Non Food (61.18% weight in basket) Aug-16 7 Apr-16 3-year average for August 12 month moving average 9 Jun-16 4.6 Aug-16 6.8 Apr-16 0.4 YoY Feb-16 0.1 6.0 Feb-16 -1.1 Dec-15 MoM SA -0.7 Oct-15 Sep-16 MoM Dec-15 Aug-16 September 2017 (percent change) 12M moving YoY average Oct-15 WPI -Food (38.82% weight in basket) 6.0 6.0 3 0 11.0 7.4 8.6 4.5 2.9 4.2 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 6
  9. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 CPI and SPI Inflation by Groups Group-Wise CPI Inflation Aug-17 Groups 1 1 MoM YoY 12m MA MoM YoY 12m MA 37 .5 0.4 1.2 3.2 0.0 -0.1 3.4 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 34.8 0.4 2.2 3.0 0.4 0.7 3.0 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 1.4 -0.1 -16.2 6.1 -5.5 -15.9 9.0 Restaurant & hotels 1.2 0.0 4.8 5.0 0.2 5.3 5.1 62.5 0.1 5.0 4.6 0.6 5.1 4.5 Clothing and footwear 7.6 0.2 3.9 4.0 0.3 3.9 4.0 Housing, water, electricity, gas fuels 29.4 0.0 5.3 5.0 1.1 5.3 4.9 Furnishing & household equipment maintenance etc. 4.2 0.1 2.6 2.8 0.4 2.7 2.9 Health 2.2 0.1 12.5 11.7 0.1 13.3 11.2 Transport 7.2 -0.3 2.7 0.5 -0.4 3.2 -0.1 Communication 3.2 0.1 1.6 1.1 0.0 1.5 1.0 Recreation and culture 2.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 Education 3.9 -40.0 -33.6 7.4 0.1 11.4 11.0 Miscellaneous 2.8 0.5 4.7 5.1 0.2 4.8 5.2 100 0.2 3.4 4.0 0.3 2.9 4.1 MoM Aug-17 YoY 12m MA1 Food group II. Non-food group Overall Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) (percent change) Income groups 31-Aug-17 7-Sep-17 14-Sep-17 WoW2 21-Sep-17 Up to Rs 8000 1.00 0.74 -0.22 0.70 0.5 -0.1 1.2 Rs 8001-12000 0.93 0.65 -0.23 0.66 0.4 -0.8 1.3 Rs 12001-18000 0.92 0.60 -0.25 0.67 0.3 0.4 1.4 Rs 18001-35000 0.88 0.57 -0.28 0.62 0.0 0.3 1.5 Above Rs 35000 0.78 0.53 -0.30 0.56 -0.2 0.6 1.7 All 0.86 0.58 -0.27 0.61 0.2 0.5 1.5 SPI Inflation-Monthly SPI Inflation-Weekly YoY YoY 52 Week moving average 12 10 10 8 6 Jun-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 21-Sep-17 31-Jul-17 26-Aug-17 05-Jul-17 09-Jun-17 18-Apr-17 14-May-17 23-Mar-17 30-Jan-17 25-Feb-17 04-Jan-17 09-Dec-16 18-Oct-16 0 -2 13-Nov-16 0 -2 22-Sep-16 1 2 Feb-16 2 4 Oct-15 4 Dec-15 6 Aug-15 percent percent 8 12 Month moving average Apr-16 I. Jul-17 Weights Twelve month moving average inflation 2 WoW: Week on Week. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Real Sector 7
  10. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Balance of Payments Balance of Payments Summary (million US$) Current, Capital and Financial Balance (Billion US$) Jul-Aug A) Current account balance (CAB) Trade balance C & F account balance FY18 FY17 FY17 FY16 -2,601 -1,287 -12,120 -4,867 -5,068 -3,698 -26,981 -19,390 Exports 3,928 3,336 21,678 21,965 Imports 8,996 7,034 48,659 41,355 -965 -650 -3,554 -3,312 Services (net); of which CSF 0 0 550 937 Income (net) -690 -555 -4,753 -5,334 4,122 3,616 23,168 23,169 3,497 3,089 19,303 19,917 1,085 1,202 9,923 7,063 Current transfers (net); of which Remittances B) Capital and financial (C&F) account balance ; of which Foreign direct investment (net)1 2,286 -149 98 -234 -429 Other investment assets 344 117 -1,389 -96 -8.0 Other investment liabilities 381 735 8,898 5,029 -10.0 242 190 4,828 3,445 -12.0 786 413 9,203 6,159 -14.0 544 223 4,375 2,714 Amortization C) Net Errors and omissions Overall balance (A+B+C) SBP gross reserves 2 SBP net liquid reserves 131 64 251 456 -1,385 -21 -1,946 2,652 16,218 3 14,682 As percent of GDP 19,417 18,122 17,550 16,144 19,446 18,143 -4.0 -6.0 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Capital and Financial Account Balance (Billion US$) Capital and financial account As percent of GDP (RHS) 12.0 3.5 10.0 3.0 2.5 8.0 4 -4.0 -1.7 6.0 Exports 6.9 6.6 7.1 7.9 4.0 Imports 15.8 13.9 16.0 14.8 2.0 1.9 2.4 3.3 2.5 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 FDI -4.0 FY13 -2.5 Capital and financial inflows; of which -2.0 -6.0 -4.6 Current account balance; of which 0.0 -2.0 2,311 of which: Disbursements As percent of GDP (RHS) 0.0 179 Of which : General government Overall balance Current Account Balance (Billion US$) Current account balance 456 Foreign portfolio investment (net) CAB 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -2.4 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Items 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 1 Net FDI equals direct investment by foreigners in Pakistan less direct investment made by Pakistanis abroad. 2 SBP gross reserves includes banks' deposits for meeting cash reserve requirements (CRR) against their foreign currency deposits and foreign currency cash holdings of SBP, but it excludes unsettled claims on RBI. 3 SBP reserves without CRR and foreign currency cash holding of SBP. 4 For FY17 revised and for FY18 provisional GDP has been used and average exchange rate has been used to calculate GDP in US$. FY16 448 336 33.3 12.8 2,338 2,580 Saudi Arabia 920 886 3.9 26.3 5,470 5,968 UAE 775 695 11.5 22.2 4,310 4,365 Other GCC 422 392 7.7 12.1 2,324 2,423 All others 476 386 23.3 13.6 2,418 2,056 6 Jun UK Apr 2,525 May 19,917 2,444 Feb 19,304 13.0 Mar 100.0 15.4 Jan 13.2 393 FY17 Dec 3,089 454 Oct 3,496 USA FY18 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Nov FY17 Sep FY17 Workers' Remittances (Billion US$) Share JulAug FY18 Jul Total inflows FY18 YoY growth Jul-Aug FY18 Aug Workers' Remittances5 (million US$) Jul-Aug 5 Only cash, 6 Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman. Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. External Sector 8
  11. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Trade and Foreign Investment Trade in Goods -Major Groups (million US$) FY18 FY17 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 Jun Apr May Mar Jan Feb Dec Oct Nov Aug Sep 1000 Jul -3.5 Exports (Billion US$) Export reciepts YoY growth (RHS, in percent) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 -30 Dec-15 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Oct-15 Imports (Billion US$) Import payments YoY growth (RHS, in percent) Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Jun-16 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 Aug-16 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Apr-16 21,965 12,756 4,436 2,332 1,266 2,156 3,805 1,052 906 347 214 7 3,722 1,853 1,682 41,355 8,360 5,098 2,570 7,097 1,201 1,651 1,356 6,715 1,791 734 4,600 1,600 490 3,663 2,931 10,920 -19,390 Aug-15 21,678 12,454 4,490 2,124 1,140 2,278 3,651 1,111 863 242 183 8 3,610 1,573 1,963 48,659 10,607 6,380 2,765 7,875 1,023 1,325 1,589 7,124 1,875 572 5,419 1,784 517 3,786 3,061 13,849 -26,981 Feb-16 All others Trade Balance FY16 Dec-15 Power machinery Agriculture & other chemicals group Plastic materials Fertilizer manufactured Food group Palm oil Tea Metal group Iron steel (IS) and IS scrap FY17 3,336 2,046 752 349 180 393 568 155 142 48 35 1 409 176 313 7,034 1,593 1,091 324 1,179 145 166 225 1,197 310 53 847 270 90 546 427 1,671 -3,698 Trade Balance (Billion US$) FY17 Oct-15 Exports Textile group Knitwear, bed wear Cotton cloth Cotton Yarn Readymade garments Other manufactures group Chemical and pharma Leather items2 Cement Engineering goods Jewellery Food group Rice All others Imports Petroleum group Petroleum products Petroleum crude Machinery group Telecom Electrical machinery FY18 3,928 2,190 808 356 191 432 690 239 157 46 35 1 504 219 544 8,996 2,093 1,321 491 1,509 183 299 407 1,372 351 137 1,005 354 90 844 689 2,174 -5,068 Share1 Jul-Aug FY18 100 56 21 9 5 11 18 6 4 1 1 0 13 6 14 100 23 15 5 17 2 3 5 15 4 2 11 4 1 9 8 24 Aug-15 Jul-Aug 1 Share (in percent) is calculated as a ratio of cumulative flow of a group (item) to cumulative flow of total exports/imports during Jul-Aug FY18. 2 Includes tanned and manufactured leather. Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan (million US$) Jul-Aug FY18 FY17 457 179 YoY growth Jul-Aug FY18 FY17 FY16 154.9 2,411 2,305 Net Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan (Million US$) FY18 Net inflows: Of which Selected Countries USA UAE UK China Selected Sectors Communication Financial businesses Oil and gas exploration Power Trade 13 18 9 259 23 3 3 48 -41.7 624.5 184.5 436.2 71 56 69 1,186 13 110 152 1,064 95 14 31 211 6 26 3 14 83 4 267.1 367.3 116.0 155.2 30.8 29 64 158 795 32 237 289 249 1,159 27 Memorandum Item: Net overall FDI3 456 179 2311 2286 FY17 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Jun May Apr Feb Mar Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul 0 Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. 3 These numbers correspond to net FDI flows given in the balance of payments table and adjusted for net FDI made by Pakistanis abroad. External Sector 9
  12. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Global Economy Policy Rates in Major Economies Policy Rates Current Major economies Previous policy rate USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka 9 Change (bps) Policy rate w.e.f USA 1.25 14-Jun-2017 1.00 25 UK 0.25 4-Aug-2016 0.50 -25 Euro zone 0.00 10-Mar-2016 0.05 -5 Japan 0.00 1-Feb-2016 0.10 -10 Canada 1.00 6-Sep-2017 0.75 25 Australia 1.50 2-Aug-2016 1.75 -25 China 4.35 26-Oct-2015 4.60 -25 10 India 6.00 2-Aug-2017 6.25 -25 7 Sri Lanka 8.75 24-Mar-2017 8.50 25 Malaysia 3.00 13-Jul-2016 3.25 -25 1 Indonesia 6.50 16-Jun-2016 6.75 -25 -2 Thailand 1.50 29-Apr-2015 1.75 -25 percent 7 5 3 1 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 -1 Source: Central bank websites GDP Growth Rate UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka Q2-17 Q1-17 Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 4 Q2-15 percent USA Source: Central bank websites Key Macroeconomic Indicators USA UK Euro zone Japan Australia China India Sri Lanka South Korea Malaysia Indonesia Thailand 1 Inflation (YoY)1 Aug-17 GDP growth2 Q2-2017 1.9 2.9 1.5 0.4 1.9 1.8 1.8 6.0 2.6 3.7 3.8 0.3 2.2 1.7 2.3 1.4 1.8 6.9 5.7 4.0 2.7 5.8 5.0 3.7 Current account balance3 Fiscal balance3 as a percent of GDP4 -2.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.6 3.2 -1.3 3.6 -4.5 -1.4 -1.8 1.5 -3.9 -1.2 -3.2 5.6 0.9 2.3 -3.0 -1.7 -2.4 11.4 -2.5 Reserves5 (billion US$) Jul-17 Nominal Real 42.7 125.0 258.3 1198.1 51.6 3080.7 362.4 5.7 371.0 96.0 117.3 177.3 4.0 0.5 6.6 1.0 5.3 4.4 9.6 11.7 3.5 4.6 11.2 6.0 1.8 0.2 4.8 0.7 3.2 2.9 6.5 5.7 1.3 0.2 7.0 6.1 Lending rates6 2 Values of Inflation of Japan pertain to July 2017 while Australia pertains to June 2017; Annual GDP growth, measured as a percentage change over the same quarter of previous year; 4 5 3 Latest 12 6 months; The Economist, Economic and Financial indicators, September 23, 2017; IMF (IFS) Reserve position data of India, Korea and Indonesia pertain to Jun 2017; IMF (IFS) data pertains to June 2017 ,Malaysia, India and Australia pertains to May 2017, USA, Euro Zone, South Korea and Indonesia pertain to April 2017, Japan pertains to February 2017 and UK pertains to May 2016. World Economic Outlook - Real GDP Growth 2016 (IMF estimates) IMF World Bank OECD World output 3.2 3.5 2.7 3.5 Advanced 1.7 2.0 1.9 - US 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.1 Euro area 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 Japan 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 UK 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 4.3 4.6 4.1 - CPI Inflation Russia -0.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 China 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.6 India 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 ASEAN-5 4.9 5.1 - - USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka 9 percent 7 5 3 1 -1 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Emerging & Developing 2017 Projections Source: Central bank websites Sources: Bloomberg, World Bank, IMF, OECD, The Economist, World Economic Outlook, and Central Bank Websites. External Sector 10
  13. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 World Commodity Price Indices (2005=100) Percent change since Trends in Commodity Price Indices (2005=100) Jun-17 May-17 End June - 16 106.8 -3.4 1.3 Food price index 152.6 1.4 -2.4 Energy index 88.2 -6.2 0.3 Non fuel price index 138.6 -0.2 2.3 Metal price index 132.4 -1.5 16.1 Crude oil price ($/bbl) * 53.4 6.6 13.2 Cotton spot (US cents/ pound) * 72.1 2.3 8.0 Palm oil ($/m. ton) 621.2 -5.2 0.4 Soya bean Oil ($/m. ton) 704.8 -1.3 0.2 Wheat ($/m. ton) 157.2 7.3 0.3 Gold spot ($/Oz) * 1318.7 2.7 -0.2 27.8 -2.1 4.1 All commodity price index All primary commodity Food Energy Metal 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 40 Source: IMF-IFS Sources: Bloomberg for Crude oil price (Saudi Arabian Light), Cotton Spot and Gold spot. IMF (IFS) for all other items. * Average during the current month upto September 27, 2017. The percentage changes have been calculated by taking average prices of current month with the previous month and end June prices. Gold Spot (RHS) 1400 1300 1200 1100 US$ per ounce US$ per barrel Saudi Arabian Light 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1000 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Sugar (US cents/pound) Daily Saudi Arabian Oil Prices and Int. Gold Prices Source: Bloomberg (Updated till September 27, 2017) Capital Market Indices Daily International Cotton Prices Percent change since Sep-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 90 1.1 3.9 DJ EURO STOXX 3499.5 1.4 -1.4 UK (FTSE 100) 7333.3 -1.0 -1.8 Japan (Nikkei 225) 19876.0 1.0 -0.8 China (SSEA) 3524.0 2.4 7.0 France (CAC 40) 5197.9 1.5 -1.3 Germany (DAX) 12449.3 2.4 -2.1 80 75 70 65 60 55 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 22149.0 US cents per pound 85 US (DJIA) Source : Bloomberg (Updated till September 27,2017) India (BSE) 31950.7 0.6 2.6 World dev'd (MSCI) 1980.6 1.5 2.9 Emerging Markets (MSCI) 1095.7 2.4 8.2 World all (MSCI) 483.3 1.6 3.5 Yields of Pakistan's Int'l Sovereign Bond 2 5-Year (2019) 9 10-Year (2024) 30-Year (2036) 8 7 percent 2 1 Sep-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 0 Dec-16 5 Yr Bond = $1000 M (Coupon rate = 7.25%): Issued - April 8, 2014: Maturity -April 15, 2019 10 Yr Bond = $1000 M (Coupon rate = 8.25%): Issued - April 8, 2014: Maturity - April 15, 2024 30 Yr Bond = $300 M (Coupon rate = 7.875%): Issued - Mar 24, 2006: Maturity -Mar 23, 2036 3 Nov-16 2 4 Oct-16 Updated till September 27, 2017 5 Sep-16 1 6 Source: Bloomberg (Updated till September 27, 2017) Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, OECD, The Economist and Central Bank Websites External Sector 11
  14. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Revenues , Expenditures and Fiscal Balances Revenues (billion Rs) FY18 BE1 6,171 4,914 Total revenues Tax revenue Growth (YoY) % 23.8 4,013 1,257 29.9 of which: FBR revenues Non-tax revenues Growth (YoY) % Revenues (billion Rupees) FY17 FY16 4,937 3,969 4,447 3,660 Non-tax Tax Total revenue as % of GDP (RHS) 6,250 19.0 20% 17.0 5,000 20% 8.4 3,361 967 21.3 3,112 787 3,750 23.0 -13.9 1,250 77% 82% 15.0 13.0 29% 26% 2,500 23% 18% 11.0 71% 74% 80% 9.0 80% Total expenditures Current Growth (YoY) % of which: Interest payments Defence Development Expenditure & net lending Growth (YoY) % Unidentified Expenditure2 3.7 1,363 920 10.7 1,348 888 6.1 1,263 758 Development 8,400 2,263 1,681 1,314 6,000 34.6 - 27.9 -78 FY18 B.E FY16 5,796 4,694 FY17 FY17 6,801 5,198 FY15 FY13 FY18 BE1 7,651 5,388 FY16 7.0 FY14 0 Expenditures (billion Rs) Expenditures (billion Rupees) Current Total expenditure as % of GDP (RHS) 25 7,200 24% 4,800 15.2 -212 30% 22 24% 21% 20% 24% 19 3,600 16 2,400 Overall Balance (billion Rs) 70% 10 FY18 B.E 0 FY17 -1,349 -247 -86 76% 79% FY16 -1,864 -261 -515 80% 76% 76% FY15 FY16 FY14 Fiscal balance3 Revenue balance4 Primary balance5 13 1,200 FY17 FY13 FY18 1 BE -1,480 783 -117 As percent of GDP 6 -4.1 2.2 -0.3 Fiscal balance Revenue balance Primary balance -5.8 -0.8 -1.6 -4.6 -0.8 -0.3 Fiscal Balance (billion Rupees) Financing of Fiscal Deficit (billion Rs) FY18 BE1 1,480 Primary 850 Revenue Fiscal Fiscal deficit as % of GDP (RHS) 0.0 FY17 FY16 1,864 1,349 511 541 370 968 1,322 979 Non-bank 528 277 192 Banking system: of which 390 1,046 787 0 888 -475 -1,700 -7.5 -2,125 -9.0 1,262 - - FY18 B.E 158 50 -6.0 -1,275 FY17 Privatization proceeds 390 -4.5 -850 FY16 Scheduled banks -3.0 -425 FY15 SBP -1.5 0 FY14 1. External 7 2. Domestic : of which 425 FY13 Financing FBR Tax Collection8 (billion Rs) FED9 Total taxes 255 71 39 634 Q3 243 247 74 40 603 Q4 328 328 97 60 813 1,029 1,089 306 164 2,588 240 253 80 27 600 FY15 Q1 60% 718 20% 1,009 46 Q3 253 303 121 Q4 398 430 106 1,192 1,324 406 191 3,112 Q1 232 261 101 31 625 Q2 355 316 117 54 842 Q3 306 320 125 42 793 Q4P 451 426 153 71 1,101 1,343 1,323 496 199 3,361 26% 79% 76 100 3% 23% 41 338 Domestic banking system External 1% 80% 785 301 FY17P 100% 40% Q2 FY16 Shares in Total Financing of Fiscal Deficit Privatization proceeds Domestic non-bank 58% 56% 14% 15% 61% 40% 36% 25% 37% 27% 21% 35% 29% 12% 0% FY18 B.E 538 269 FY17 25 Q2 FY16 65 FY15 Customs 259 FY14 Sales 190 FY13 Direct Q1 1 Budget Estimates; Estimated from Budget in Brief 2017-18, MoF; 2 In Fiscal Accounts, these expenditures are named as 'Statistical Discrepancy'; 3 Fiscal balance = total revenue - total expenditure; 4 Revenue balance = total revenue - current expenditure; 5 Primary balance = total revenue - total expenditure + interest payment; 6 GDP(mp) on new basis (2005-2006) has been used to calculate deficit to GDP ratios; 7 It includes the amount of Privatization Proceeds; 8 as reported in fiscal accounts; 9 Federal excise duty; P Provisional Fiscal Accounts and Debt 12
  15. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Government Domestic Debt Debt by Owner - end period stocks (billion Rs) Stock of Debt (by Owner) 6,932 506 1,517 SBP 2,472 2,020 451 -264 3000 0 233 Others 1,512 1,429 83 -53 5 5 0 0 14,849 13,626 1,223 1,433 928 -530 766 Prize bonds 747 646 101 124 Others2 390 368 21 38 6,551 5,002 1,549 392 0 213 -213 213 Bai Muajjal 3 MTBs MRTBs-replenishment 4,082 4 3.Unfunded debt5: of which Saving schemes 4.Foreign currency instruments Total(1+2+3+4) Government domestic liabilities6 47% Unfunded 12000 billion Rs 3000 2,018 451 -443 1050 2,684 82 113 875 700 109 0 14,849 13,626 1,223 1,433 457 411 46 53 1 Includes FEBCs, FCBCs, DBCs and special USD bonds held by the residents. 2 Includes market loans and GOP Ijara Sukuk 3 Years. 3 Includes Rs. 0.013 billion of Treasury Bills on Tap. 37% 45% 44% 45% 44% 40% 43% 44% 36% 37% 36% 37% Interest Payments by Type of Debt 2,469 0 37% Permanent 2,765 104 39% Source: SBP 1225 5 14% 17% 56% 46% 525 Includes Outright Sale of MRTBs, if any. 5 Includes funds mobilized through NSS excluding prize bonds. This reflects provincial governments’ borrowings from banks for commodity operations. 30% 175 FY16 Percent change FY17 over FY16 513 513 12.4 337 337 4.2 278 258 258 7.7 1206 1108 1108 8.8 Permanent7 577 Floating 351 Unfunded Total Jun-13 42.5 22% 53% 54% 39% 46% 37% 30% 36% 26% 24% 24% 23% FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Jun-16 Jun-17 Stock of Domestic Debt (as percent of GDP) 48 45 42 39 36 33 30 27 24 Jun-12 Indicators of Domestic Debt Sustainability Debt stock as percent of GDP8 21% 0 Debt Servicing (billion Rs) FY16 Unfunded 350 FY12 4 FY17P Floating Source: SBP 6 Jul-Jun 19% 20% 0 623 2,527 19% 20% 6000 1,311 5 19% Permanent 21% 9000 2,771 2,631 19% Floating Sep-16 -407 4,921 2. Floating debt 51% Jun-16 5,936 4,392 50% 49% Mar-16 5,528 PIBs 48% 47% Stock of Debt (by Type) billion Rs 1.Permanent debt Jun-16P 46% 15% 15000 Jun-17P 17% 15% Source: SBP, CDNS Debt by Type - end period stocks (billion Rs) Change during Jul-Jun FY17 FY16 20% 17% Jun-17 180 183 23% 19% Mar-17 266 3,240 23% Dec-16 4,669 3,424 24% 20% Dec-15 4,935 National saving schemes (NSS) 6000 24% 10% 23% Jun-17 7,438 24% FY13 11% Mar-17 Commercial banks 24% 10% Dec-16 9000 1,253 11% 11% Sep-16 12000 957 Total(1+2+3) Others 10% Jun-16 FY16 8,952 3.Foreign currency instruments1 NSS 10% Mar-16 FY17 9,909 2.Non-bank SBP 15000 Dec-15 1.Bank Jun-16 Change during Jul-Jun P billion Rs Jun-17 P Scheduled banks Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Source: SBP, MoF Jun-14 43.3 Jun-15 44.4 Jun-16 46.8 Jun-17 Debt Servicing (as percent of) Total revenue 46.6 Total expenditure GDP (RHS) 36 Debt servicing as percent of GDP FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 27 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.8 3.8 Total revenue 30.4 28.7 29.9 24.9 24.4 Tax revenue 41.3 40.7 39.0 30.3 30.4 9 Total expenditure 18.8 20.7 21.8 19.1 17.7 0 Current expenditure 24.8 26.0 26.6 23.6 23.2 7 P Includes prize bonds; : Provisional 5 18 4 3 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Source: SBP, MoF Sources: Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS), Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP and Ministry of Finance (MoF). Fiscal Accounts and Debt 13
  16. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 External Debt 1 Debt & Liabilities - end period stocks (million US$) Debt Servicing (million US$) Items Jun-17 Change Jun-16 during JulJun-FY17 1. Public debt (a+b+c) 66,103 61,357 4,746 56,430 51,714 4,716 55,547 11,973 50,026 12,678 5,522 -705 P a) Government debt i)Long term (>1 year) Paris club Multilateral Jul-JunFY17P Items 1. Public debt (a+b+c) a) Government debt3 Principal Interest 5,075 3,623 4,903 3,433 3,734 1,169 2,426 1,007 27,605 26,376 1,229 86 103 Other bilateral 5,823 4,445 1,378 Principal 0 53 Euro/Sukuk global bonds 4,800 4,550 250 Interest 86 51 0 0 0 87 87 4,826 882 3,944 Principal 0 0 0 35 -35 Interest 87 87 90 58 Military debt Commercial loans/credits Local currency Securities (PIBs) Saudi fund for development (SFD) b) To IMF FY16 c) Foreign exchange liabilities 20 60 -40 500 1,000 -500 0 0 0 882 832 1,688 1,112 -806 -281 b) From IMF i) Federal government 6,109 0 6,043 0 66 0 ii) Central bank c) Foreign exchange liabilities (FEL)2 6,109 6,043 66 Principal 0 3 3,564 3,600 -36 Interest 0 0 2,706 2,807 -100 1,214 1,265 -52 SAFE China deposits NBP/BOC deposits ii) Short term (<1 year) Of which: Multilateral 2.Public sector enterprises(PSEs) a) Guaranteed debt b) Non-guaranteed debt 3.Scheduled banks a)Borrowing i) Long term (>1 year) ii) Short term (<1 year) b)Non-resident deposits (LCY & FCY) 4. Private sector a)Guaranteed debt b)Non-guaranteed debt i)Loans ii)Private non-guaranteed bonds 2. PSEs guaranteed debt Principal 72 43 Interest 3. PSEs non-guaranteed debt3 18 15 233 217 244 226 17 18 0 3 Principal Interest 4. Scheduled banks' borrowing3 5. Private guaranteed debt 6. Private non-guaranteed debt3 0 0 584 414 1,493 1,541 -49 Principal 431 325 4,507 2,695 1,812 Interest 153 89 3,291 19 1,618 19 1,673 0 7. Private non-guaranteed bonds Principal 0 0 0 0 3,272 1,599 1,673 0 0 1,216 1,078 139 Interest Total Long term external debt servicing (1+2+3+4+5+6+7) 5,982 4,342 6,416 4,073 2,343 4,454 3,076 0 0 0 1,529 1,266 6,416 4,073 2,343 Interest Memorandum Items 5,424 3,132 2,291 Short term debt servicing-principal4 (excluding item No.3 below) 2,083 895 12 12 0 1. Government debt 1,393 735 Principal iii)Trade credit and others liabilities 5.Debt liabilities to direct investors-intercompany debt Total external debt (excl. FEL) 981 929 52 2. PSEs non-guaranteed debt 3,248 79,416 3,013 70,345 235 9,072 3. Scheduled banks' borrowing Total external debt & liabilities (1+2+3+4+5) 82,981 73,945 9,036 4. Private non-guaranteed debt 43 56 82,680 50,427 1,692 275 648 104 FY16 FY17P Net flows 5 Indicators of External Debt Sustainability External debt servicing6 as percent of End period debt stock as percent of Jun-12 GDP Reserves Exports Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 P Jun-17 FY12 FY14 FY15 30.9 27.0 25.6 24.2 26.6 27.3 2.0 2.6 2.6 1.7 1.6 2.0 426.8 264.9 550.8 245.5 459.1 260.3 348.3 270.5 319.4 336.5 386.0 382.6 27.9 17.3 53.9 24.0 46.0 26.1 24.8 19.3 18.8 19.8 27.8 27.6 External Debt Servicing (billion US$)* Stock of External Debt & Liabilities (billion US$) Debt PSEs debt** Foreign exchange liabilities 78 65 52 39 26 13 FY12 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP Jun-15 Jun-16 Private debt and bonds** Schedule banks' borrowing Public debt 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 91 Jun-12 FY13 Jun-17 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 *Only Long term debt servicing included. **PSEs and Private debt include guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt. Scheduled banks' debt servicing captured from Jul-Sep 09 onwards. Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP R: Revised; P: Provisional ; 1 External debt data format has been changed, as SBP enhances coverage & quality of external debt statistics by adopting Special Data Dissemination Standard, for more details visit http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Revision-EDS.pdf.2 Allocation of SDR and Nonresident LCY deposits with central bank added to FEL; 3 Only long term debt servicing included. 4 As per the guidelines available in IMF's External Debt Guide for Compilers and Users 2003, the principal repayment of short term debt is excluded from over all principal repayments. However, for the information of data users, short term repayment of principle has been reported as Memorandum Items; 5 Net flows of short term borrowings by banks reflect the net increase (+) or decrease (-) in the stock of short term bank borrowings during the period. 6 Only long term debt servicing included from FY11 and onwards. Sources: Economic Affairs Division and SBP(S&DWH) Fiscal Accounts and Debt 14
  17. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Total Debt Total Debt Stock (billion Rs) Jun-17P Jun-16 Jun-15 Jun-14 Jun-13 Change during Jul-Jun FY17 I. Government domestic debt 14,849 13,626 12,193 10,907 9,520 1,223 59.2 II. Government external debt1 5,919 5,418 4,770 4,786 4,336 501 23.6 III. Debt from IMF 641 633 418 298 435 8 2.6 IV. External liabilities 374 377 378 324 308 -3 1.5 1,146 709 539 500 466 437 4.6 VI. PSEs external debt 284 294 253 204 183 -10 1.1 VII. PSEs domestic debt 823 568 459 366 312 255 3.3 VIII. Commodity operations2 687 637 564 492 470 50 2.7 IX. Intercompany External Debt from Direct Investor abroad 341 316 277 336 308 25 1.4 Total debt & liabilities (I to IX) 25,062 22,577 19,849 18,214 16,338 2,485 100.0 Gross Public Debt (I to III) FRDLA Definition3 21,409 19,677 17,380 15,991 14,292 1,732 85.4 Net Public Debt4 19,635 17,823 15,986 14,624 13,457 1,812 78.3 Total external debt & liabilities (II to VI &+ IX) 8,704 7,747 6,634 6,449 6,036 957 34.7 Commodity operations & PSEs debt (VI to VIII) 1,793 1,499 1,276 1,062 965 294 7.2 P FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 Share in FY17 (percent) Share in FY16 (percent) Total Debt Servicing(A+B) 1877 1611 1702 1768 1538 100.0 100.0 A. Total interest payment on debt and liabilities (I+II) 1410 1290 1347 1183 1049 75.1 80.1 1367 1240 1286 1134 996 72.8 76.9 a. Domestic debt 1206 1108 1176 1043 907 64.2 68.8 b. External debt 161 132 110 91 89 8.6 8.2 43 51 61 49 53 2.3 3.1 a. Domestic liabilities 34 42 52 47 52 1.8 2.6 b. External liabilities1 9 9 9 3 1 0.5 0.6 467 321 355 585 489 24.9 19.9 Jun-17P Jun-16 Jun-15 Jun-14 Jun-13 78.7 77.6 72.3 72.4 73.0 Gross Public Debt-FRDLA Definition3 67.2 67.6 63.3 63.5 63.9 Net Public Debt 61.6 61.2 58.3 58.1 60.1 Total external debt and liabilities 27.3 26.6 24.2 25.6 27.0 Government domestic debt 46.6 46.8 44.4 43.3 42.5 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.2 4.3 FY17P FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 5.9 5.5 6.2 7.0 6.9 Total revenue 38.0 36.2 43.3 48.6 51.6 Tax revenue 47.3 44.0 56.4 68.9 69.9 Total expenditure 27.6 27.8 31.6 35.2 31.9 Current expenditure 36.1 34.3 38.5 44.1 42.0 V. Private sector external debt Share in JunFY17(percent) Total Debt Servicing (billion Rs) FY17 I. Interest payment on debt (a+b) II. Interest payment on liabilities (a+b) B. Principal repayment of external debt and liabilities 5 Debt stock (as percent of GDP) Total debt and liabilities PSEs debt and liabilities Debt Servicing (as percent of) GDP Debt Stock (billion Rs) Total external debt & liabilities Total debt & liabilities 27500 25000 22500 20000 17500 15000 12500 10000 7500 5000 2500 0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Debt Stock (as percent of GDP) Government domestic debt Total public debt (FRDLA Definition) Total external debt & liabilities Total debt & liabilities Government domestic debt Total public debt (FRDLA Definition) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Jan-14 Jan-15 1 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 2 Note: R: Revised; P: Provisional; Rupee value of external debt and liabilities computed by applying the corresponding end period average exchange rate to the end-period stock; This includes borrowings from banks by provincial and Federal governments agencies for commodity operations; 3 Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 2005 (FRDLA) was amended in June 2016 to define "Total Public Debt" as "The debt of the government serviced out of consolidated fund and debts owed to International Monetary fund (IMF); 4Gross Public Debt minus Government Deposits with the Banking System. 5This is excluding short term debt repayment. Source: CDNS, Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs Division and SBP Fiscal Accounts and Debt 15
  18. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Monetary and Credit Aggregates Monetary Assets of the Banking System (billion Rs) End June 2017 stocksP Cumulative flows since end-June Monetary Assets (M2) - Cumulative Flows since end June Latest week A year ago 15-Sep-17 16-Sep-16 FY17 FY17 Flows 1,500 1,000 602.4 -213.8 -92.3 -405.2 NDA 13,978.7 78.6 41.6 2,161.5 8,955.4 320.4 398.5 1,135.8 0 8,281.9 353.5 424.0 1,087.1 -500 686.5 -32.7 -25.1 49.9 6,119.6 -104.9 -194.4 1,107.1 5,197.5 -80.6 -224.7 747.9 898.7 -24.3 28.6 354.9 -1,096.3 -137.0 -162.5 -81.4 14,581.1 -135.2 -50.7 1,756.2 3,911.2 17.8 174.5 577.4 10,647.2 -153.1 -225.3 1,174.9 9,388.3 -138.6 -208.1 1,191.4 Time deposits with banks 608.6 -26.9 -24.6 -79.5 RFCDs with banks 650.2 12.3 7.4 63.0 14,581.1 -135.2 -50.7 1,756.2 Non-government borrowings: of which Private sector PSEs Other items (net) M2 Monetary Liabilities of the Banking System Currency in circulation Total deposits with banks Demand deposits with banks M2 (billion Rs) Monetary Assets of the Banking System (percent growth) YoY (15-Sep-17) 16-Sep-16 -35.5 -9.2 -40.2 NDA 18.5 0.6 0.4 18.3 12.9 3.6 5.1 14.5 13.3 4.3 5.9 15.1 6.9 -4.8 -3.9 7.8 24.8 -1.7 -3.9 22.1 Private sector 21.1 -1.6 -5.1 16.8 PSEs 52.7 -2.7 5.3 65.3 -4.7 -12.5 -16.0 -8.0 13.1 -0.9 -0.4 13.7 Non-government sector borrowings Other items (Net) M2 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks Net Domestic Assets(NDA) - Cumulative Flows since end June FY18 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks Private Sector Credit - Cumulative Flows since end June FY17 FY18 800 600 Latest week A year ago FY17 billion Rs Memorandum Items 400 200 15-Sep-17 16-Sep-16 2.98 2.97 3.00 -200 Currency to deposit ratio (percent) 37.44 37.94 36.73 -400 M2 to GDP ratio (percent) 40.22 40.09 45.76 Private sector credit to GDP ratio (percent) 14.25 13.26 16.31 Money multiplier FY18 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 FY17 15-Sep-17 Commodity operations FY17 FY17 -57.5 Budgetary borrowing Net Foreign Assets - Cumulative Flows since end June Since end June NFA Government borrowings 500 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks billion Rs Commodity operations billion Rs Net budgetary borrowing billion Rs NFA Net government borrowings: of which FY18 2,000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks R ; Revised (All weekly numbers are provisional); Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWHD), SBP Monetary Sector 16
  19. Monetary Policy Information Compendium Monetary Assets of SBP (billion Rs) Reserve Money - Cumulative Flows since end June Cumulative flows since end-June Latest week A year ago 15-Sep-17 FY17 Flows 16-Sep-16 828.9 -195.3 -50.6 -204.1 4,039.0 167.5 379.9 1,098.3 Budgetary borrowing 2,349.9 169.9 915.3 907.7 Other items (net) 1,121.9 30.1 -505.9 14.0 1,533.1 69.2 -440.8 -0.3 4,867.9 -27.8 329.4 Monetary Liabilities of SBP Cumulative flows since end-June Latest week FY17 Flows A year ago 15-Sep-17 16-Sep-16 3,911.2 17.8 174.5 577.4 Cash in tills 264.6 -50.7 -23.6 35.3 Bank deposits with SBP (reserves) 669.3 5.0 178.3 277.6 22.7 YoY (15-Sep-17) 0.2 0.1 3.9 NFA of the SBP -35.5 -23.6 -4.9 -19.8 NDA of the SBP: of which 26.7 4.1 12.9 37.4 6.9 7.2 63.5 62.9 12.5 -0.6 8.3 22.5 Other deposits with SBP Budgetary borrowing Reserve money End June 2017 stocks (billion Rs) Cumulative flows since end-June Latest week A year ago 15-Sep-17 16-Sep-16 353.5 424.0 1,087.1 Federal government 9,071.8 358.7 374.5 1,071.5 2,440.4 189.0 828.5 710.1 SBP's holdings of MRTBs 2,468.9 185.0 911.9 451.3 From scheduled banks (SBs) 6,631.4 169.7 -454.0 361.4 -789.9 -5.1 49.4 15.6 -90.5 -19.1 86.8 197.6 -699.4 13.9 -37.3 -182.0 From scheduled banks Currency in Circulation - Cumulative Flows since end June FY17 FY18 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks Budgetary Borrowings - Cumulative Flows since end June FY18 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks Cumulative Budgetary Borrowings during FY18 SBs SBP Total budgetary borrowing 400 300 Memorandum Items Budgetary borrowing on cash basis Weeks FY17 8,281.9 From SBP 1 FY18 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 FY17 Flows Budgetary borrowing Provincial governments FY17 (percent growth) Details on Government Borrowing for Budgetary Support From SBP Banking System Deposits -Cumulative Flows since end June billion Rs End June 2017 stocks Currency in circulation 894.2 (billion Rs) billion Rs Reserve money billion Rs Net impact of OMOs/discounting FY18 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks billion Rs NDA: of which FY17 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 billion Rs End June 2017 stocks NFA September 2017 200 100 0 8,162.8 401.4 414.8 1,045.8 -100 SBP 2,299.4 184.8 908.9 887.7 -200 Scheduled banks 5,863.4 216.6 -494.0 158.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Weeks 7 8 9 10 11 1 Current overdraft ceilings for provinces are: Rs37.2 billion for Punjab; Rs15 billion for Sindh; Rs10.1 billion for KPK; Rs7.1 billion for Baluchistan, Rs4.5 billion for AJK. Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWHD), SBP Monetary Sector 17
  20. Monetary Policy Information Compendium September 2017 Private Sector Credit Credit to Private Sector Cumulative flows (billion Rs) Loans to Private Sector Businesses (Monthly Flows) 20.5 74.9 -0.3 1.0 15.6 Electricity, gas and water Wearing apparel, readymade gar. 365.3 9.9 4.5 60.1 Construction 138.6 -2.4 -4.4 41.0 Commerce and trade 308.2 -5.1 -10.8 42.7 Transport, storage and comm. 211.0 0.3 -7.2 29.2 Services: of which 220.4 -1.3 -1.3 28.9 Real estate/renting & business acu. 2. Personal: of which Consumer financing 132.5 -0.2 5.3 18.3 504.5 17.7 3.8 71.0 389.5 8.1 12.2 70.5 3. Investment in securities and shares 264.6 -2.1 7.6 15.9 4. Others2: of which 466.2 -21.8 -60.7 36.1 138.9 -7.0 -0.5 10.0 Non-bank finance companies 1 From Weekly Monetary Survey's month end position. 2 This also includes credit to some Public Sector Enterprises, and other categories. Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWHD), SBP. 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 May Jun Jun 34.3 -3.4 Investment in Securities and Shares (Monthly Flows) FY16 FY17 FY18 Jun -16.3 -4.7 May -15.3 89.7 Jun 304.7 FY18 May Chemicals & products Non-metallic mineral products FY17 May 82.8 151.3 Oct -40.1 -51.5 Oct -19.8 -29.3 Sep 695.1 627.6 Sep Textiles Food producus & beverages Jul 12.4 384.3 Jul 2.5 -135.1 Aug 10.6 -70.0 billion Rs 297.5 2,299.6 Aug FY16 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 billion Rs Manufacturing: of which Apr Consumer Finance (Monthly Flows) Credit to NBFIs (Monthly Flows) FY16 FY17 FY18 16.0 12.0 8.0 billion Rs Agriculture Mar 259.0 Apr 11.0 Mar 26.2 Apr 1,494.7 Fixed investment By Sectors: of which Mar 45.7 Apr 39.7 -0.3 Mar -18.9 -21.8 Jan -19.6 253.7 Feb 341.9 Import finance Feb Export finance Feb 365.9 Dec -167.8 Jan -91.9 Working capital: of which Jan 2,467.5 By type Dec 624.9 Dec 747.9 -156.8 Oct -206.2 -65.7 FY18 Nov -71.9 3,962.2 Nov 5,197.5 1. Loans to private sector businesses FY17 Nov Total credit to private sector 1 FY16 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 Sep FY17 Jul Jul-Aug FY17 Aug Jul-Aug FY18 billion Rs End June 2017 stocks 4.0 0.0 -4.0 -8.0 Monetary Sector Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul -12.0 18