Indonesia: Retail Sales Survey - July 2017

Transcription

1. RETAIL SALES SURVEY July 2017  The Bank Indonesia Retail Sales Survey confirmed an annual sales correction in July 2017 after public consumption returned to normal in the wake of Ramadhan and Eid-ul-Fitr. Retail sales contracted by -3.3% (yoy) to a level of 209.9, after posting 6.3% (yoy) growth the month earlier. The retail sales contraction affected foods and non-foods alike. Regionally, respondents confirmed that retail sales in most of the cities surveyed had experienced a downturn, particularly in Semarang, Denpasar and Manado.  Respondents expected retail sales to rebound in August 2017, predicting the RSI to accelerate to 5.3% (yoy). Retailers anticipated an uptick in sales of foods and non-foods, accelerating respectively from -0.3% (yoy) and -7.8% (yoy) to 10.4% (yoy) and -1.9% (yoy).  The Survey also revealed that inflationary pressures at the retailer level are expected to escalate over the next three months, with the corresponding 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) increasing from 133.3 to 135.5. Real Sales in July 2017 Respondents confirmed declining sales in July 2017. In July 2017, respondents confirmed an annual sales correction, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) contracting -3.3% (yoy) to a level of 209.9, after posting 6.3% (yoy) growth the month earlier (Graph 1 and 2). The retail sales contraction affected foods and non-foods alike, contracting by -0.3% (yoy) and -7.8% (yoy) respectively after posting gains of 10.5% (yoy) and 0.2% (yoy) in June 2017 (Graph 3). In terms of foods, ready-to-consume foods and beverages were the main drag on growth (Graph 4), while respondents cited household equipment, primarily electronics (excluding audio/video equipment), along with household furniture as the main impediments to non-food growth. Methodology The Retail Sales Survey has been conducted monthly to acquire early information concerning GDP trends from a private consumption perspective. The Retail Sales Survey was first conducted in September 1999 and in January 2015 the survey involved 700 retailers as respondents using purposive sampling in ten cities, namely Jakarta, Semarang, Bandung, Surabaya, Medan, Purwokerto, Makassar, Manado, Banjarmasin and Denpasar. The index is calculated using commodity and city weights, where commodity weights based on the Input-Output (I-O) table, while city weights based on the share of household consumption in Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) to household consumption in Gross Domestic Product GDP. Currently, panel respondents are grouped according to seven KBLI (Indonesian Standard Industrial Classification) established in 2009. The real index presented with 2010=100 as the base year (previously 2000=100). Meanwhile, general price projections calculated by using the balanced score method (net balance + 100) using city weights according to the Cost of Living Survey (SBH). 1
2. Graph 1 . Real Retail Sales Index Graph 2. Real Sales Growth On a monthly basis, real retail sales slumped to a -9.7% (mtm) contraction in July 2017 after recording 8.5% (mtm) growth the month earlier, with retailers indicating that demand had returned to normal after Eid-ul-Fitr, which precipitated the retail contraction in the reporting period. Respondents confirmed that the monthly contraction affected nearly all commodity groups, particularly other goods in the form of clothing (-26.3%, mtm). In terms of clothing, the contraction affected all product lines, most significantly eyewear, jewellery and watches as well as footwear and accessories. 2
3. Graph 3 . Real Sales Annual Growth of Food & Non Food Commodity Groups Graph 4. Real Sales Annual Growth of Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Commodity Groups Graph 5. Real Sales Annual Growth of Motor Graph 6. Real Sales Annual Growth of Information & Vehicles Part & Accessories and Automotive Fuels Communication Equipment and Other Household Commodity Groups Equipment Commodity Groups Graph 7. Real Sales Annual Growth of Cultural & Recreation Goods and Other Goods Commodity Groups Graph 8. Real Sales Annual Growth of Other Goods and Clothing Commodity Groups 3
4. Real Sales Expectations for August 2017 Respondents predicted retail sales to rebound in August 2017 . Respondents expected retail sales to rebound in August 2017, predicting RSI to expand 5.3% (yoy) to a level of 208.2 (Graph 1 and 2). Retailers anticipated an uptick in sales of foods and non-foods, accelerating respectively from -0.3% (yoy) and -7.8% (yoy) to 10.4% (yoy) and -1.9% (yoy). In terms of foods, the latest data pointed to 13.1% (yoy) growth of ready-to-consume foods (Graph 4), while retailers expected clothing (5.5%, yoy) to drive non-food sales. The latest monthly data revealed real sales growth of -0.8% (mtm) in August 2017, improving from -9.7% (mtm) the month earlier. All commodity groups are expected to benefit from stronger sales in August, especially clothing (-4.5%, mtm), for which all product lines are predicted to improve, particularly sales of footwear and accessories, followed by apparel, in line with the end of Eid-ul-Fitr and start of the new academic year. Regional Real Sales Retailers in Semarang reported the most significant sales dip in July 2017. Regionally, respondents confirmed that retail sales in most of the cities surveyed had experienced a downturn, particularly in Semarang (including Purwokerto), where retailers reported a -23.5% (yoy) contraction, plummeting from 11.0% (yoy) in June 2017. Other goods were most affected by the slowdown, including cosmetics and footwear as well as accessories. Notwithstanding the widespread sales contractions, retailers in several cities acknowledged slower sales, including Jakarta, where retail sales sank from 32.4% (yoy) in June 2017 to just 3.2% (yoy), primarily on electronics (audio/video equipment). Nevertheless, respondents in most cities were upbeat that sales would pick up again in August 2017, especially in Jakarta and Semarang (including Purwokerto), where retailers predicted growth of 38.0% (yoy) and 3.0% (yoy) respectively. Furthermore, retailers in Banjarmasin expected growth to soar to 45.6% (yoy) (Graph 10). 4
5. Graph 9 . Performance of Real Sales Growth (YoY) in Semarang (include Purwokerto), Jakarta, and Banjarmasin Price Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months Respondents predicted inflationary pressures to escalate in October 2017. In general, respondents predicted inflationary pressures on goods and services to escalate in October 2017, reflected by a 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) of 135.5, up from 133.3 the month earlier (Graph 10). Furthermore, retailers expected inflationary pressures to accumulate in January 2018, with the 6-month PEI increasing from 149.3 to 158.1 in the reporting period (Graph 11). Graph 10. Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three Months Grafik 11. Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Six Months 5
6. Sales Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months Retailers expected sales to rebound in October 2017 . Retailers expected sales to rebound in October 2017, reflected by an increase in the 3-month Sales Expectations Index (SEI) from 123.1 to 127.9. Furthermore, respondents were also optimistic that retail sales would accelerate in January 2018, with the 6-month SEI climbing 12.2 points from 141.3 to 153.5 (Graph 12). Graph 13. Sales Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three and Six Months 6
7. Appendix Table 1 . Real Retail Sales Index by Categories Table 2. Growth (y-o-y) of Real Retail Sales Index Table 3. Growth (m-t-m) of Real Retail Sales Index 7
8. Table 4 . Real Sales Index by City Table 5. Annual Growth (y-o-y) of Real Sales by City Table 6. Monthly Growth (m-t-m) of Real Sales by City 8
9. Table 7 . Expectations for Prices and Sales 9