MENA Daily Fixed Income Report - 21 December

Transcription

1. MENA Daily Fixed Income Report – 21 December 2020 Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” News Updates Saudi Central Bank Hikes Bill Issuance Cap to 10 Billion Riyals – The Saudi Central Bank more than tripled its weekly bill issuance ceiling to 10 billion riyals ($2.24 billion) to help banks more efficiently manage their liquidity. Saudi lenders are dealing with a liquidity glut after the central bank provided a raft of support measures in response to the coronavirus. The regulator has provided over 100 billion riyals to local banks in liquidity injections and to cover the costs of loan deferrals for small businesses hit by the pandemic. Central bank moves have been key to stimulating the virus-battered economy after authorities refrained from providing an aggressive fiscal response. (Source: Bloomberg) IMF Sees Qatar’s Economy Return to Growth, Wider Deficit in 2021 – Growing natural gas production and a rebound in domestic demand will help Qatar return to economic growth next year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest assessment of the country’s financial health. Gross domestic product will grow 2.7% in 2021 following a contraction of 2.5% this year, the IMF said in a statement following virtual meetings held with Qatari officials Dec. 6-14. It added that risks to this forecast mainly emanated from the global economic outlook. While Qatar is projecting it will run a budget deficit next year -- a shortfall the IMF pegs at 6% of the country’s GDP -- the fund said that the country’s decision to reprioritize some spending has kept the fiscal gap in check. “Postponing unawarded contracts on non-core, non-World Cup related investment projects and savings in operating spending helped to mitigate the impact from the lower oil price and a slowdown in economic activity,” the IMF said. (Source: Bloomberg) Fitch affirms UAE’s ADNOC at ‘AA+’ on high output, vast reserves – Fitch Ratings (Fitch) on Sunday affirmed ADNOC Group a standalone credit rating of ‘AA+’ to reflect the energy giant’s high upstream production and vast oil reserves. The ratings agency also cited low cost of production, integration into downstream operations, conservative financial policies, high financial flexibility and strong unit profitability. In line with its Government-Related Entities (GRE) Rating Criteria and Parent and Subsidiary Linkage (PSL) Rating Criteria, Fitch also affirmed a Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘AA’ with a Stable Outlook to ADNOC, in line with the sovereign rating of Abu Dhabi, reflecting Fitch’s view of the strong links between ADNOC and the Abu Dhabi government. (Source: Gulf News) GCC Sovereign Yields Sovereigns Maturity Sovereign Ratings Price ∆ (YTD %) 5.27 Yield % Abu Dhabi 2025 0.79 Abu Dhabi 2030 1.57 Abu Dhabi 2050 2.71 Bahrain 2026 3.31 Bahrain 2030 4.72 Bahrain 2047 6.09 Dubai 2029 2.56 KSA 2025 1.15 Price ∆ (YTD %) 6.96 9.67 KSA 2030 2.00 11.14 KSA A1 A-u A 19.65 KSA 2050 3.21 10.72 UAE Aa2 NR AA- -1.20 Oman 2025 4.23 -1.38 AA AA Oman 2029 5.42 -1.03 Abu Dhabi Aa2 17.06 Qatar Aa3 AA- AA- -3.42 Oman 2048 6.70 -0.50 2.75 Qatar 2025 0.89 6.76 Bahrain B2 B+ B+ Oman Ba3 B+ BB- Egypt B2 B B+ Lebanon C SD RD Jordan B1 B+ BB- Turkey B2 B+u BB- Tunisia B2 NR Sovereigns Maturity Yield % Kuwait 2022 0.24 1.25 Qatar 2030 1.62 12.60 Kuwait 2027 1.10 5.97 Qatar 2050 2.77 23.70 Bonds and Sukuk Indices Yield % Duration (yrs) 1D ∆ (%) YTD ∆ (%) Bloomberg GCC FI Index 2.45 8.08 0.12 8.73 S&P MENA Bond and Sukuk Index 2.00 NA 0.02 9.19 Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Index 3.53 6.80 0.04 6.13 Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index 0.85 7.42 -0.16 8.80 Index Name Interbank Rates (%) KIBOR SAIBOR BHIBOR QATAR AEIBOR EURIBOR LIBOR 3 Months 21/12/2020 31/12/2019 1.4375 2.7500 0.8188 2.2314 2.2500 2.6667 1.1000 2.2500 0.4379 2.2086 -0.5370 -0.3830 0.2358 1.9084 6 Months 21/12/2020 31/12/2019 1.6875 2.9375 0.8700 2.2557 2.5333 2.7000 1.2000 2.3500 0.5453 2.1914 -0.5200 -0.3240 0.2585 1.9121 USD Swap Rates 1-Year 2-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 30-Year Yield % 0.1937 0.2036 0.4327 0.6540 0.9239 1.4012 Currencies 1D ∆ (bps) 0.02 -0.13 -1.81 -2.21 -2.55 -2.18 YTD ∆ (%) -89.1 -88.0 -75.0 -63.6 -51.2 -33.0 US Treasuries 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year 12 Months 21/12/2020 31/12/2019 1.9375 3.1875 0.9413 2.3071 2.6833 2.8333 1.4000 2.5333 0.7311 2.2900 -0.4980 -0.2490 0.3340 1.9963 KWD SAR BHD QAR OMR AED USD 0.3038 3.7520 0.3771 3.6415 0.3850 3.6730 UK Guilts Yield % 0.12 0.37 0.92 1.67 1D ∆ (%) 0.01 0.09 0.24 0.55 Yield % -0.11 -0.05 0.24 0.80 1D ∆ (bps) -0.0165 0.0000 -0.0027 -0.0027 0.0000 0.0000 YTD ∆ (%) -0.23 -0.01 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00 German Bunds 1D ∆ (%) 0.04 0.17 0.43 1.06 Yield % -0.76 -0.77 -0.63 -0.17 1D ∆ (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 Moody’s S&P Kuwait A1 AA- Fitch AA B Morocco Ba1 BBB- BB+ US Aaa AA+u AAA UK Aa2 AAu AA- China A1 A+ A+ USD 5Yr CDS 21-Dec 2020 31-Dec 2019 Kuwait 40.19 36.700 KSA 63.32 56.915 Abu Dhabi 34.99 36.090 Dubai 103.81 91.005 Qatar 36.05 36.705 Bahrain 242.50 175.995 Oman 351.80 234.400 Iraq 500.67 383.680 Egypt 335.74 277.420 Morocco 94.24 91.435 Turkey 319.30 282.130 US 12.89 10.810 UK 15.81 16.210 China 27.07 31.205 Japan 14.52 21.042 Germany 9.19 7.080 France 13.90 16.130 Source: Bloomberg This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre K.P.S.C. (Markaz) , which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report can not be published. A number of sources which include Bloomberg, Zawya, and daily newspapers were utilized in the creation of this report.