MENA Daily Fixed Income Report - 1 March

Transcription

1. MENA Daily Fixed Income Report – 1 March 2021 Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” News Updates GCC Sovereign Yields Abu Dhabi's TAQA plans international bond sale – Abu Dhabi National Sovereigns Maturity Yield % Energy Company (TAQA), owned by Abu Dhabi state-owned holding Abu Dhabi 2025 0.96 company ADQ, is planning an international bond sale. TAQA has Abu Dhabi 2030 2.05 investments in power generation, water desalination, oil and gas 2050 3.27 exploration and production, pipelines and gas storage. In July, TAQA Abu Dhabi closed a deal for Abu Dhabi Power Corporation (ADPower) to transfer the Bahrain 2026 3.50 majority of its power and water generation, transmission and distribution Bahrain 2030 5.42 assets to TAQA. TAQA has two outstanding dollar bonds worth $750 Bahrain 2047 6.79 million each that are maturing in June and December this year. The bonds Dubai 2029 2.50 due in June were issued in 2016 at a coupon of 3.625% and the ones due Kuwait 2022 0.34 in December were sold in 2011 at a 5.875% coupon. In February, TAQA Kuwait 2027 1.42 reported a fall in profit by nearly a half in 2020, when it posted net income of 2.79 billion dirhams ($759.64 million) compared to 5.44 billion dirhams Bonds and Sukuk Indices in 2019. The fall was primarily due to lower commodity prices and Index Name production volumes in the oil and gas sector. (Source: Zawya) IMF estimates Oman’s debt to GDP to decrease gradually – An IMF mission held in Oman between 17 and 31 January 2021, as part its bilateral discussions with members, reviewed economic developments and the country’s future outlook. Focus was placed on the impact of COVID-19, low oil prices, and policies to help economic recovery and the times to follow afterwards. IMF staff estimate that total government debt to GDP will decrease to 60 percent over the medium term. Oman’s real GDP is expected to grow by 1.8 percent in 2021, and 7.4 percent in 2022. Similarly, its non-oil GDP is likely to expand by 1.5 percent in 2021, and 2.3 percent the following year. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, comparisons between January 2020 and 2021 have shown that Oman’s deficit has grown, while its revenue and expenditure have declined. Its expenditure stood at OMR 755.6 million, a 17.8 percent decrease compared to last January, while its revenue decreased from OMR 575.3 by 33.1 percent to reach OMR 384.8 million. Similarly, the deficit grew from OMR 344.4 million to OMR 370.8 million. Average oil production decreased slightly from 970,000 to 946,000, while oil prices dropped from $60.26 to $41.11. (Source: Times of Oman) UK earmarks a further $2.3 billion for its COVID vaccine push – British finance minister Rishi Sunak will announce an extra 1.65 billion pounds ($2.30 billion) to fund the country’s fast vaccination rollout as part of his annual budget statement, the finance ministry said. Britain has so far given a first vaccination more than 20 million people, or more than one in three adults, Europe’s fastest vaccination rollout. “The new money will continue to vaccinate the population and ensure every adult is offered a dose of a vaccine by July 31,” the ministry said. A further 33 million pounds will be spent on vaccine testing and development to protect against future outbreaks and variants and 22 million pounds will fund a study to test the effectiveness of combinations of different COVID-19 vaccines. (Source: Reuters) Price ∆ (YTD %) -1.00 Maturity Yield % KSA 2025 1.27 Price ∆ (YTD %) -0.66 -3.85 KSA 2030 2.41 -3.15 -9.29 KSA 2050 3.78 -8.33 -1.26 Oman 2025 3.69 1.52 -4.67 Oman 2029 5.25 1.03 -8.06 Oman 2048 7.00 -3.03 -0.21 Sovereigns Qatar 2025 1.00 Sovereign Ratings Moody’s S&P Kuwait Fitch A1 AA- AA KSA A1 A-u A UAE Aa2 NR AA- Abu Dhabi Aa2 AA AA Qatar Aa3 AA- AA- -0.91 Bahrain B2 B+ B+ Ba3 B+ BB- -0.58 Qatar 2030 2.12 -4.13 Oman -2.05 Qatar 2050 3.41 -9.96 Egypt B2 B B+ Lebanon C SD RD Jordan B1 B+ BB- Turkey B2 B+u BB- Tunisia B3 NR Bloomberg GCC FI Index S&P MENA Bond and Sukuk Index Yield % Duration (yrs) 1D ∆ (%) YTD ∆ (%) 2.68 8.08 -0.16 -2.28 2.27 NA -0.24 -2.86 B Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Index 3.73 6.80 0.18 -2.26 Morocco Ba1 BBB- Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index 1.08 7.42 -0.02 -2.59 US Aaa AA+u AAA UK Aa3 AAu AA- China A1 A+ Interbank Rates (%) KIBOR SAIBOR BHIBOR QATAR AEIBOR EURIBOR LIBOR 1/3/2021 1.4375 0.8000 1.9417 0.9732 0.3069 -0.5300 0.1884 3 Months 31/12/2020 1.4375 0.8175 2.2500 1.1206 0.5125 -0.5450 0.2384 USD Swap Rates Yield % 1-Year 2-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 30-Year 0.1899 0.2317 0.8116 1.1530 1.4753 1.9073 6 Months 31/12/2020 1.6875 0.8700 2.5333 1.1960 0.4908 -0.5260 0.2576 Currencies 1D ∆ (bps) 0.14 -0.40 -1.41 -0.63 0.53 2.85 YTD ∆ (%) -1.4 17.1 88.7 76.1 59.4 36.0 USD KWD SAR BHD QAR OMR AED US Treasuries 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year 1/3/2021 1.6875 0.8463 2.0250 1.0924 0.4313 -0.5160 0.2030 0.3019 3.7508 0.3771 3.6414 0.3850 3.6731 Commodities 1D ∆ (bps) 0.0000 -0.0027 -0.0027 0.0055 0.0000 0.0000 YTD ∆ (%) 0.46 0.03 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 UK Guilts Yield % 0.12 0.70 1.40 2.17 1D ∆ (%) 0.01 0.14 0.02 -0.41 Yield % 0.11 0.39 0.82 1.38 12 Months 1/3/2021 31/12/2020 1.9375 1.9375 0.9200 0.9413 2.3583 2.6833 1.2507 1.3636 0.5667 0.6538 -0.4830 -0.4990 0.2838 0.3419 USD Gold Silver Copper Nat. Gas Aluminum Crude Oil 1,747.00 26.93 413.70 2.79 2,131.75 65.39 YTD ∆ (%) -8.03 1.71 17.40 9.81 7.80 26.28 German Bunds 1D ∆ (%) -0.04 -0.16 -0.44 0.07 Yield % -0.63 -0.65 -0.37 0.19 1D ∆ (%) 0.01 0.06 0.22 1.40 BB+ A+ USD 5Yr CDS 1-Mar 2021 31-Dec 2020 Kuwait 41.61 40.69 KSA 66.75 63.77 Abu Dhabi 45.30 36.03 Dubai 98.09 104.06 Qatar 46.04 36.70 Bahrain 225.55 233.58 Oman 324.26 353.60 Iraq 517.24 542.74 Egypt 302.48 330.47 Morocco 101.81 102.56 Turkey 318.85 299.47 US 9.29 11.52 UK 13.72 15.13 China 29.79 26.70 Japan 14.70 14.74 Germany 9.09 9.09 France 13.44 14.42 This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre K.P.S.C. (Markaz) , which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report can not be published. A number of sources which include Bloomberg, Zawya, and daily newspapers were utilized in the creation of this report.