GCC Equity Market Monitor - 7 February

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g February 7, 2017 2/7/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI 0.1% 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% Kuwait Kuwait ‐ Wtd 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0 7% ‐2.1% ‐0.6% 0 6% 4.5% 1.3% 1 3% ‐0.5% ‐0.6% 0 6% 16.6% ‐1.9% 1 9% 12.3% ‐0.1% 0 1% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Qatar Bahrain 0.1% ‐0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0 1% 6.6% ‐0.2% 0 2%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 3.245 million (c. US$ 8.4 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share BUY SELL NET Al Madina Takaful Insurance 705,865 21.7% 2,824,960 2,824,960  2,759,136 2,759,136  65,825 65,825  Al Jazeera Services Al Jazeera Services Services 377 759 377,759 11 6% 11.6% GCC 211,707  305,531  (93,824) Al Madina Inv Inv Hldg 366,000 11.3% Arabs 64,488  48,530  15,958  Bank Muscat Banking 343,715 10.6% OTHERS 144,708  132,666  12,041  Anwar Ceramic Tiles Industry 292,606 9.0% OMANIS MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,701,104  9.4 1.2 5.5% MSM 30 5,814.71 5,808.43 0.11% 0.67% 0.55% Financial 3,408,624  8.8 0.9 4.7% Financial 8,091.74 8,087.91 0.05% 1.81% 5.47% Industrial 1,004,290  15.6 1.4 5.1% Industrial 7,724.08 7,720.43 0.05% 1.76% 4.28% Services 2,966,968  10.1 1.8 6.4% Services 3,028.52 3,018.22 0.34% 0.18% ‐0.99% MSM Shariah 2,795,594  10.6 1.7 6.0% 862.52 858.84 0.43% 0.61% ‐0.75% MSM Shariah 2/7/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   MENA  % Chg %MTD %YTD   1.4 ‐0.2 0.3 0.0 2.2 1.2 4.1 ‐0.6 0.4 5.5 ‐0.2 11.8 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 0.2 0.2 ‐0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 ‐0.2 0.8 1.3 4.6 4.6 0.8 7.5 6.6 1.0 Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey 12,849.4 ‐0.3 2,156.9 ‐0.2 5,509.8 0.2 25,798.8 0.2 529.3 0.4 87,357.9 ‐1.2 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 122.7 0.5 S&P GCC (USD) 100.8 0.5 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  1,049.5 1.3 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  1,644.2 1.3 MSCI GCC MSCI GCC 480.4 0.2 MSCI Frontier  536.7 0.1 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 802.9 ‐0.3 MSCI Arabian Index 524.4 0.3 Index  Closing   Americas  % Chg %MTD %YTD   S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,292.6 20,052.4 5,663.6 63,992.9 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐1.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 ‐1.0 2.4 1.5 5.2 6.3 ‐0.2 ‐1.0 ‐1.2 1.0 0.6 ‐0.2 0.4 ‐1.7 0.3 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 ‐0 0.2 2 ‐0.3 ‐0.2 ‐1.0 ‐0.5 ‐0.2 26 2.6 ‐0.4 0.3 1.2 ‐0.8 6.0 66 6.6 1.4 2.3 2.3 %MTD %YTD %YTD  0.7 ‐0.8 ‐0.6 0.8 ‐0.9 ‐1.2 ‐0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐2.0 1.8 2.5 4.5 1.0 2.9 2.5 1.0 0.0 0.8 6.4 1.1 ‐4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Europe FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing  % Chg %MTD %YTD  1,798.2 ‐0.4 0.3 2.7 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,738.2 ‐0.7 ‐0.1 2.8 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,497.4 ‐1.1 ‐0.2 1.8 923.0 0.4 1.5 7.0 MSCI EM Index Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 556 5 556.5 08 0.8 05 0.5 10 1.0 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 225.6 ‐0.3 ‐0.5 ‐2.5 0.4 0.5 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  87.9 0.1 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing 18,954.8 23,310.6 28 386 9 28,386.9 3,147.2 2,073.5 1,178.5 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD , 7,172.2 4,778.1 11,509.8 4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg In Comparison with USD 100.160 1.071 1.311 111.910 1.246 8.852 0.994 6.876 7.758 67.379 0.767 13327.000 3.702 0.385 3.673 3.751 0.305 3.641 0.377 0.3 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.2 0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %YTD  NYMEX Crude 53.1 0.2 0.6 ‐2.8 ICE Brent Crude 55.9 0.3 0.5 ‐2.8 Crude Oil, Oman  54.8 ‐1.6 2.9 1.1 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.1 0.8 ‐1.4 ‐16.6 151.0 0.0 ‐2.6 ‐10.5 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,232.8 ‐0.2 1.8 7.0 Silver Spot 17.7 ‐0.2 0.8 11.2 Platinum Spot  1,011.4 ‐0.3 1.6 11.9 Palladium Spot  771.1 ‐0.4 2.2 12.9 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 820 5 1,820.5 ‐0.1 01 03 0.3 68 6.8 LME Copper‐Spot 5,835.8 1.2 ‐2.6 5.7 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,792.5 0.0 ‐2.1 9.2 LME Lead‐Spot 2,351.0 1.0 ‐0.8 17.6 LME Nickel‐Spot 10 396 5 10,396.5 22 2.2 50 5.0 43 4.3 Steel  620.0 US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  0.0 0.3 ‐1.4 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  364 3 364.3 01 0.1 13 1.3 35 3.5 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  423.3 0.2 0.6 3.7 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  1,038.3 0.2 1.3 3.4 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  735 0 735.0 Closing %MTD %YTD A Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  i (i USD/ MT) Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Index  ‐2 3 ‐2.3 ‐8 1 ‐8.1 ‐23 5 ‐23.5 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  1,080.0 2.4 27.1 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 1,035.0 7.8 24.7 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 1,040.0 7.8 24.6 Benzene CFR India Spot 1,045.0 7.7 24.4 0.6 8.5 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  502.5 Naphtha C&F Japan  527.0 2.8 6.1 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 498.3 ‐0.4 2.5 p g p p Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  57.1 3.0 6.4 3.7 7.6 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  995.0 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,165.0 5.4 5.4 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,160.0 5.5 5.5 895 0 895.0 11 1.1 35 3.5 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 905.0 1.1 4.0 2EH CFR South East Asia 925.0 1.1 3.9 DOP CFR Far East Asia 995.0 2.1 1.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  10,380.0 0.8 4.3 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,170.0 2.6 0.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,180.0 0.9 0.9 y p Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,170.0 , 0.9 3.5 1,690.0 9.0 9.0 UREA Cornbelt 305.0 1.7 10.9 UREA Middle East 282.0 0.0 15.1 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 375 0 375.0 ‐2.8 28 86 8.6 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 2/7/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Thirteen firms vie to build water project in Khasab (Source: Times of Oman)  As many as thirteen firms have shown interest in developing an independent water project (IWP) in Khasab with a desalination capacity of 16,000 cubic metres per day.  According to an earlier report, the Khasab project, which is expected to be completed by late 2019, will cater to the growing demand for water in the Musandam governorate. governorate  The companies that submitted applications for prequalification are Abengoa Water Consortium, ACWA Emirates Consortium, Al Fanar Energy, GS Inima, House of Trading and Services Consortium, Metito Consortium, Osmoflo, Romman Premium Enterprises Consortium, SETE Energy Consortium, Seven Seas Consortium, Tedagua, Utico and Veolia Middle East, according to the OPWP’s website.  These will be evaluated by the Oman Power and Water Procurement Company for selecting pre‐qualified firms for bidding for the project. The winning company will develop it as a private sector project.  Apart from Khasab, the Sultanate is also developing independent water projects in Salalah, Shaqiyah and Duqm, which will together add p ggallons p per dayy ((MIGD)) of new capacity p y to the country’s y rapidly p y expanding p g domestic water ggeneration capacity. p y 52.8 million imperial Idealmed JV to build 100‐bed hospital in Oman (Source: Oman Observer, Trade Arabia)  Idealmed Group said its joint venture firm, Al Afia Healthcare Development and Investment Company, is set to start work on a six‐ p project p j in Oman. storeyy hospital  Spread over a 10,000‐sq‐m area, the Idealmed Muscat Hospital will come up in the Ghubra area of the sultanate overlooking the Sultan Qaboos Street.  Besides the Portuguese group, Al Afia Healthcare Development and Investment Company has Oman Brunei Investment Company and Suhail Bahwan Group as its key partners.  Idealmed Group operates more than 20 healthcare facilities around the world, and has developed the Idealmed Institute in close collaboration with the University of Coimbra, to provide ongoing training to its global facilities. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News ITA and Omantel renew Oman Government Network contract (Source: Muscat Daily)  Information Technology Authority (ITA) and Omantel have recently signed an agreement to renew the Oman Government Network (OGN) contract. The contract was first signed in July 2006 for a period of five years and it was then renewed in 2011 for other five years.  According to the contract, Omantel will provide the government entities with network links using the Multi‐protocol Label Switching (MPLS) technology, which has strict Service Level Agreements (SLAs) to ensure the best quality of service.  For this five‐year renewed contract, ITA and Omantel added an option to connect using 3G/4G as an alternative for remote areas. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Stock specific activity likely to prevail, ongoing dividend season to support… During the previous trading session, we saw all the GCC markets (except for Bahrain) to end on a positive note amid risk on rally continuing i i in i global l b l equities i i along l with i h dividend di id d related l d buying b i seen from f the h regional i l institutions. i i i O Oman ended d d marginally i ll higher hi h amid range bound trend along with lower participation. We anticipate the local and the regional markets to open on a flattish note for the day and to trade stock specific with the ongoing dividend season seen as near term triggers. We see MSM index support around 5,790 points and resistance is maintained closer to 5,870 levels. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News DFM reports 2016 results (Source: Gulf Base)  Dubai Financial Market said its net profit for 2016 fell by a marginal 3% to Dh253.5 million compared to Dh261 million in 2015. Total revenues fell to Dh439.3 million in 2016 compared to Dh451 million in 2015.  During Q4, the net profit increased 406% to Dh78.5 million compared to Dh15.5 million in the last quarter of 2015. Total revenues also jumped d more than h 85 per cent to be b at Dh131.2 h million. ll  Despite the 12% drop in trading value to Dh133 billion in 2016, due to some unfavourable circumstances related to oil prices and international markets’ volatility, the DFM managed to contain the implications of these circumstances. All Shafar h f Steell plans l $ million $48 illi expansion i at DIP (Source: Trade Arabia)  Al Shafar Steel Engineering (Assent), a leader in structural steel design and manufacturing and will invest Dh175 million ($47.6 million) in the expansion of its facilities located at Dubai Industrial Park (DIP).  The expansion, Th i which hi h will ill result l in i one off the h largest l steell manufacturing f i companies i in i the h region, i i geared is d to grow the h company's ' operational footprint in the UAE and the wider GCC region.  As per the expansion land lease area plan, Assent, a member of the UAE‐based Al Shafar Group of Companies, will add four new facilities spread over additional 1,200,000 sq ft of land, and that will lead into reaching a total leasable area of 2.4 million sq ft.  Construction is scheduled to begin in Q2 2017, and the new facility is estimated to start operations by end‐2018. Dubai's residential transaction volumes up 30% during Q4 2016 (Source: Trade Arabia)  Th total The t t l residential id ti l transaction t ti volumes l i Dubai's in D b i' residential id ti l sector t for f the th last l t quarter t grew 30 per centt over Q3 2016. 2016  With approximately 3,000 residential units entering the market in Q4 and bringing the estimated total residential supply in Dubai to 472,000, the market has witnessed an average drop of 3% in apartment sale price and 6% for the villas.  The average apartment and villa rents fell by 2% in Q4 and 3% and 5% respectively for the year GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Singapore said to plan incentives to lure Aramco listing (Source: Argaam)  Singapore is mulling incentives to lure Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO) as global exchanges vie for a part of what could be the world’s largest ever IPO, as per news sources.  Singapore is studying proposals, including inviting one of its state investment companies to become a cornerstone investor in Aramco’s IPO, as wellll as potentiall Singapore cooperation with h the h Saudi d government on future f investments.  Aramco plans to sell 5% of its shares in 2018 with a base listing in Riyadh and the company has not yet decided on other venues. The estimated size of the IPO is about $100 billion. Amiantit i i inks i k JV agreement with i h Austria’s i ’ WIG (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co. (Amiantit) signed on Monday a joint venture agreement with Austria’s WIG Wietersdorfer Holding GmbH (WIG), Amiantit said in statement to Tadawul.  Under U d the h agreement, Amiantit’s A i i ’ European E pipe i manufacturing f i and d sales l companies i and d its i Flowtite Fl i technology h l will ill be b merged d with i h the h Hobas AG group of companies in Europe.  The entities under Hobas to be included in the merger are manufacturing facilities in Germany, Austria, Poland and several sales companies in Western and Eastern Europe, as well as in the Balkans. They will also include the Hobas technology and R&D center.  Amiantit’s pipe business represents yearly sales of about SAR 470 million, with a profit of SAR 6.6 million in 2016. Qatar Holding invests $250 million in Indian affordable homes fund (Source: Arabian Business)  A thV d Fund ArthVeda F d Management M t (AVFM) announced d that th t Qatar Q t Holding H ldi has h committed itt d to t invest i t $250 million illi in i its it affordable ff d bl low l and d middle iddl income fund. AVFM is part of Wadhawan Global Capital, with Dewan Housing Finance Corp Ltd (DHFL) as the flagship entity.  It is estimated that India needs to build 19 million urban housing units in the low and mid‐income (LMI) category by 2022 across Tier 1, 2 and 3 cities which requires a capital of $1 trillion. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 2/7/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11