Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 10 February

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 10 Feb’17  The FBM KLCI climbed to a near 10-month intraday high of 1,702 points on Friday before closing at 1,699 points to register a weekly gain of 0.8%.  Regional markets rebounded on expectations that the soon-to-be-announced U.S. fiscal policies would boost the U.S. economy and result in improved demand for regional exports.  Looking ahead, investors are expected to remain focused on the pace of regional economic activities, currency trends and fiscal policies of the new U.S. administration. Performance of Key Indices (As at 10 Feb’17) Region Market FBM KLCI FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index Local South East Asia North Asia Wall Street Europe Straits Times Index Jakarta Composite Index China ‘H’ Shares Shanghai Composite Index Dow Jones Nasdaq STOXX Europe 50 Index Index 1,699 12,490 % Weekly Change +0.8 +1.1 3,100 +1.9 5,372 10,125 3,197 20,269 5,734 3,039 +0.2 +4.6 +1.8 +1.0 +1.2 +1.0 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Sentiment lifted by Wall Street & resilient oil prices: Led by buying of selected blue Local chips, the FBM KLCI climbed to a near 10-month intraday high of 1,702 points on Friday. Sentiment was lifted by buoyant U.S. markets and resilient oil prices. The FBM KLCI closed at 1,699 points to register a weekly gain of 0.8%. The FBM EMAS Shariah Index firmed by 1.1% to close at 12,490 points for the week. Meanwhile, active interest in smaller-cap stocks helped the FBM Small Cap Index to register a gain of 2.4% over the same period. Regional China’s firmer exports & Wall Street’s gains boosted markets: Regional markets rebounded amid stronger-than-expected Chinese exports and gains on Wall Street. The turnaround in China’s export growth to a 23-month high of +7.9% in January 2017 compared to a decline of -6.2% in December 2016 fuelled optimism of a recovery in China’s export outlook. In North Asia, the China ‘H’ shares market rose by 4.6% to a 14-month high of 10,125 points. The Taiwan market and Japan’s Topix registered weekly gains of 2.2% and 2.1% respectively. South-East Asian markets were generally well-supported, with the Singapore market closing 1.9% higher for the week. The Australian market recorded a weekly gain of 1.8% on the back of broad-based gains across all sectors except the real estate industry. Page 1 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Global Markets Rose Amid Renewed Expectations of U.S. Tax Cuts
2. Comments Dow hit a new record high : The U.S. president’s recent comments that a major tax cut plan would be unveiled in the coming weeks helped the Dow to close at a new record high of 20,269 points for the week. Led by financial and energy stocks, the broader-based S&P 500 Index closed 0.8% higher at 2,316 points while the technology-based Nasdaq rose by 1.2% to close at 5,734 points over the same period. Europe European markets, as proxied by the STOXX Europe 50 Index, registered a weekly gain of 1.0% amid gains in insurance and banking stocks. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 16,015 12,490 1,699 15,645 12,354 1,685 % Weekly change +2.4 +1.1 +0.8 South-East Asia Singapore Indonesia Thailand Philippines 3,100 5,372 1,585 7,235 3,042 5,361 1,583 7,227 +1.9 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +7.6 +1.4 +2.7 +5.8 North Asia China*, H Share MSCI China Taiwan TOPIX (Japan) Hong Kong SH Comp (China) MSCI FEXJ# South Korea 10,125 6,560 9,666 1,547 23,575 3,197 524 2,075 9,683 6,374 9,456 1,515 23,129 3,140 516 2,073 +4.6 +2.9 +2.2 +2.1 +1.9 +1.8 +1.5 +0.1 +7.8 +9.5 +4.5 +1.8 +7.2 +3.0 +8.3 +2.4 +1.8 +1.2 +1.0 +1.0 +1.0 +0.6 # in USD +1.0 +6.5 +0.9 +2.6 +1.6 +4.1 10 Feb’ 17 FBM Small Cap Index FBM EMAS Shariah Index FBM KLCI Global Australia Nasdaq Europe** Dow Jones FTSE 100 (U.K.) MSCI World# * Hang Seng China Enterprises Index 3 Feb’ 17 5,721 5,622 5,734 5,667 3,039 3,008 20,269 20,071 7,259 7,188 439 436 ** STOXX Europe 50 Index % YTD change +8.8 +4.0 +3.5 2. Economic Commentary Market Commentary Malaysia - Export growth gained paced to a 14-month high of 10.7% in December from 7.8% in November amid higher exports of petroleum-related products and a slower decline in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Meanwhile, import growth edged up to 11.5% from 11.2% over the same period. The trade surplus narrowed to RM8.7 billion in December from RM9.0 billion in November. Page 2 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Market Wall Street
3. Source : Department of Statistics Malaysia - Industrial production growth eased to 4.7% in December from 6.2% in November on the back of slower growth in manufacturing and electricity output. - On a weekly basis, the Ringgit softened by 0.3% to RM4.44 against the US$ in tandem with the retracement of most regional currencies versus the US$. On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit strengthened by 1.0% against the greenback. U.S. - Based on preliminary estimates, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index moderated to 95.7 in February from a 13-year high of 98.5 in January as some consumers were less optimistic on certain new economic policies. China - China’s exports expanded by 7.9% in January 2017 compared to a contraction of 6.2% in December 2016 as exports to the Eurozone and Japan improved. Import growth accelerated to 16.7% from 3.1% over the same period. The trade surplus widened to US$51.3 billion in January from US$40.8 billion in December. Indonesia - Indonesia’s GDP growth inched down from 5.0% in 3Q2016 to 4.9% in 4Q2016 as higher growth in investment spending was more than offset by a further decline in government spending. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices edged down by 0.2% to close at US$56.70/brl. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices firmed by 0.1% to close at US$53.86/brl over the same period. Fig 1. Weekly Brent Crude Oil & Ringgit Trends US$/RM US$/brl 57.0 0.227 56.5 0.226 56.0 0.225 55.5 55.0 0.224 03-Feb 04-Feb 05-Feb 06-Feb 07-Feb 08-Feb 09-Feb 10-Feb Brent Crude Oil (LHS) - USD per Ringgit (RHS) The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, rose by 0.2% to close at 433.64 points. Page 3 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Malaysia’s Export Growth Composition Exports (% YoY) Nov ’16 Dec ’16 Electrical & Electronics +13.9 +8.9 Refined Petroleum +0.1 +71.9 Crude Petroleum -6.1 +15.9 LNG -22.5 -1.0 Total +7.8 +10.7
4. GDP Growth (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone Source: Bloomberg 2016 6.7 6.8 5.0 4.1 1.5 1.8 2.7 1.4 2.4 3.2 1.0 1.6 1.6 2017F 6.5 6.4 5.3 4.3 1.8 1.5 2.5 1.9 2.5 3.2 1.0 2.3 1.5 2018F 6.2 6.5 5.5 4.4 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.0 2.8 3.4 0.9 2.3 1.5 2017F 2.2 2.9 4.2 2.7 2.5 1.0 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.7 0.6 2.4 1.4 2018F 2.3 3.0 4.4 2.5 2.5 1.4 1.9 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.0 2.4 1.4 MARKET BRIEF Regional & Global GDP Statistics f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2016E 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S. (1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 16.08 8.25 11.84 13.58 14.77 14.37 13.81 17.33 15.56 16.00 9.68 17.84 14.78 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.40 3.56 3.50 1.98 3.07 3.60 4.00 1.79 2.12 1.93 1.80 2.11 4.13 Source: Bloomberg, 10 Feb’17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 4 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5. Looking ahead , investors are expected to remain focused on the pace of regional economic activities, currency trends and fiscal policies of the new U.S. administration. On the local front, the improvements in Malaysia’s industrial production and exports in 4Q2016 suggest that 4Q2016 GDP growth (scheduled to be announced on 16th February) may be a shade higher than consensus estimates of 4.1%. As a result, full-year GDP growth for 2016 could reach 4.2% compared to consensus estimates of 4.1%. As at 10th February 2017, the local market traded below its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.0x versus its 10-year average P/E ratio of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.26% was above the 12-month F.D. rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, traded below its 10-year historical average P/E ratio: - Regional P/E valuations: 12.5x versus the 10-year historical average P/E ratio of 13.5x. * The average F.D. rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD, % ^ 2007-2016 historical average 10 Feb’ 17 1,699 16.01 3.26% 3.43% 3.10% 3 Feb’ 17 1,685 15.90 3.29% 3.43% 3.10% Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 10 Feb' 2017 P/E: 16.0x 10 Feb' 2017 P/E: 12.5x P/E Ratio (x) 20 P/E Ratio (x) 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - 15 10 15 10 Average: 16.4x Average: 13.5x 5 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Page 5 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 17 MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations The rebound in global markets in late 2016 was led by the U.S. market in anticipation that the new U.S. administration would implement strong fiscal spending plans to boost economic growth. The recent news that details of the U.S. tax-cutting measures will be unveiled in a few weeks’ time reignited optimism over the U.S. economic outlook. Coupled with a positive turnaround in China’s exports, regional markets regained some ground following several weeks of cautious trading.
6. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 10th February 2017, the U.S. Treasury (UST) market remained stable as firm demand for medium and longer-tenure UST benchmark papers pushed the yields lower. The 10-year UST yield closed 5 basis points (bps) lower at 2.41%. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS market ended mixed with the yields of longer-tenure issues moving lower as buying interest in longer-tenure issues remained resilient. The 10-year MGS yield fell by 5 bps from 4.14% to 4.09%. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance - Resilient corporate bond prices continued to underpin the bond funds’ positive performance. Foreign Exchange Weekly Change of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Dollar Index* 100.8 +0.9 Indonesia Rupiah 13,291 +0.3 Pound Sterling 0.80 +0.1 Australian Dollar 1.31 -0.01 Chinese Yuan 6.88 -0.1 Ringgit 4.44 -0.3 Japanese Yen 113.6 -0.3 Singapore Dollar 1.42 -0.5 Euro 0.94 -0.9 YTD % change -1.4 +1.0 +1.6 +5.7 +0.9 +1.0 +2.9 +1.6 +0.9 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies Bond Market Outlook - Looking ahead, global bond markets are expected to be influenced mainly by the impact of the new U.S. administration’s economic policies on the global economy and financial markets, the outlook for U.S. interest rates, the upcoming elections in selected European Union (EU) countries, as well as monetary policies of major central banks. - On the domestic bond front, market participants are closely monitoring the potential impact of the U.S. administration’s economic policies and the pace of further U.S. interest rate hikes in 2017. Page 6 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
7. MARKET BRIEF Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields (in %) 10-Feb-17 3-Feb-17 % chng* 3 Month Interest Rates KLIBOR 3.43 3.43 U.S. T Bill 0.53 0.50 +3 3 Year U.S. T Note 1.47 1.46 +1 MGS 3.35 3.36 -1 'AAA' Corp 4.19 4.19 'AA' Corp 4.54 4.55 -1 5 Year U.S. T Note 1.89 1.91 -2 MGS 3.69 3.68 +1 'AAA' Corp. 4.34 4.36 -2 'AA' Corp 4.69 4.71 -2 10 Year U.S. T Bond 2.41 2.46 -5 MGS 4.09 4.14 -5 'AAA' Corp. 4.67 4.68 -1 'AA' Corp 4.97 4.98 -1 *in basis points Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 7 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
8. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds PSF PGF PIX PINDGF PAGF PRSF PBF P SmallCap PEF PFSF PDSF PSSF PSA30F POGF PBBF PBGF PBGSQF PSSCF PBMAC PBBSQF PSMACF PSMAGF PSTGF PBDBEF PSTEF PAVGEF PGRBF PBSCGF PRSSQF PEMOF PBMAGRF 10 Feb’17 3 Feb’17 0.5100 0.4559 0.6371 0.4837 0.6202 0.6001 0.6614 0.8745 0.2528 0.2684 0.2650 0.2846 0.2765 0.3013 0.7802 0.7583 0.2574 0.3232 0.2484 0.2521 0.2767 0.2638 0.2731 0.2551 0.2701 0.2645 0.2573 0.2544 0.2571 0.2584 0.2541 0.5051 0.4516 0.6328 0.4796 0.6157 0.5959 0.6582 0.8628 0.2504 0.2653 0.2630 0.2831 0.2739 0.2994 0.7763 0.7514 0.2550 0.3199 0.2468 0.2505 0.2757 0.2620 0.2711 0.2538 0.2677 0.2621 0.2558 0.2530 0.2560 0.2560 0.2533 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +1.0 +0.8 +1.0 +0.8 +0.7 +1.0 +0.9 +0.8 +0.7 +0.8 +0.7 +0.9 +0.5 +0.5 +1.4 +2.4 +1.0 +0.8 +1.2 +1.4 +0.8 +0.9 +0.5 +1.0 +0.9 +0.8 +0.6 +1.0 +0.5 +0.5 +0.9 +0.8 +0.9 +0.8 +1.0 +2.4 +0.6 +0.3 +0.6 +0.5 +0.4 +0.3 +0.7 +0.6 +0.7 +0.9 +0.5 +0.9 +0.9 +1.5 +0.9 +0.8 +0.6 +0.5 +0.6 +2.1 +0.4 +0.9 +0.9 +1.6 +0.3 +0.6 Local Islamic Funds P Ittikal PIEF PIOF PIMXAF PIDF PISSF PISTF PIOGF PISEF PIA40GF PISVF PITGF PITSEQ PBIEF PISGIF PESMACF PESMAGF PIENTEF PIAVGEF PIGRBF PIEMOF 10 Feb’17 3 Feb’17 0.8625 0.3379 0.4063 0.2450 0.3642 0.2606 0.3383 0.2737 0.3772 0.2798 0.2893 0.2834 0.2940 0.2599 0.2399 0.2597 0.2955 0.2533 0.2608 0.2604 0.2571 0.8541 0.3345 0.4022 0.2436 0.3605 0.2586 0.3368 0.2719 0.3742 0.2785 0.2871 0.2801 0.2923 0.2584 0.2381 0.2589 0.2945 0.2512 0.2597 0.2589 0.2549 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +1.0 +1.0 +1.0 +0.6 +1.0 +0.8 +0.4 +0.7 +0.8 +0.5 +0.8 +1.2 +0.6 +0.6 +0.8 +0.3 +0.3 +0.8 +0.4 +0.6 +0.9 +1.1 +1.1 +2.4 +0.8 +1.0 +1.1 +1.7 +1.1 +1.1 +1.0 +1.0 +1.5 +1.1 +1.1 +1.1 +0.4 +0.7 +0.9 +1.0 +0.6 +1.5 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 10 Feb’17 3 Feb’17 0.2553 0.2585 0.2715 0.2823 0.2716 0.2691 0.2601 0.2746 0.2629 0.2543 0.2569 0.2712 0.2805 0.2701 0.2686 0.2581 0.2726 0.2607 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.4 +0.6 +0.1 +0.6 +0.6 +0.2 +0.8 +0.7 +0.8 +0.7 +0.6 +0.1 +0.8 +0.7 +0.1 +0.8 +1.1 +0.9 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF 10 Feb’17 3 Feb’17 0.3148 0.2678 0.3291 0.2936 0.2719 0.3184 0.2865 0.3034 0.2857 0.2708 0.3213 0.3683 0.2242 0.2866 0.3777 0.2968 0.2925 0.3067 0.2691 0.2767 0.3715 0.2673 0.3047 0.3169 0.3343 0.2920 0.2885 0.3021 0.2980 1.2247 0.3115 0.2687 0.2633 0.2626 0.2504 0.3102 0.2629 0.3258 0.2884 0.2697 0.3145 0.2803 0.2962 0.2837 0.2666 0.3118 0.3621 0.2228 0.2829 0.3732 0.2953 0.2885 0.3042 0.2676 0.2722 0.3648 0.2624 0.3018 0.3141 0.3290 0.2893 0.2864 0.2995 0.2923 1.2093 0.3093 0.2670 0.2598 0.2614 0.2500 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +1.5 +1.9 +1.9 +1.7 +1.0 +0.9 +1.8 +2.7 +0.8 +1.1 +1.2 +1.3 +2.2 +2.8 +2.4 +2.2 +0.7 +0.8 +1.6 +1.8 +3.0 +3.5 +1.7 +2.0 +0.6 +0.8 +1.3 +1.9 +1.2 +1.4 +0.5 +0.7 +1.4 +1.5 +0.8 +0.7 +0.6 +1.0 +1.7 +2.4 +1.8 +2.0 +1.9 +2.6 +1.0 +1.4 +0.9 +1.0 +1.6 +1.4 +0.9 +1.2 +0.7 +0.6 +0.9 +1.4 +2.0 +1.9 +1.3 +1.3 +0.7 +1.0 +0.6 +0.6 +1.3 +1.1 +0.5 +0.7 +0.2 +0.1 Foreign Islamic Funds PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF 10 Feb’17 3 Feb’17 0.3329 0.3192 0.3326 0.2731 0.3393 0.2834 0.2550 0.2598 0.3300 0.3167 0.3295 0.2682 0.3368 0.2812 0.2529 0.2568 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.9 +0.8 +0.9 +1.8 +0.7 +0.8 +0.8 +1.2 +1.0 +0.8 +0.6 +1.6 +0.7 +0.9 +0.8 +0.8 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 10 Feb’17 3 Feb’17 0.9485 0.9771 1.0052 1.0125 1.0310 1.0821 1.0365 1.0491 1.0590 1.1562 1.0865 1.0433 1.0413 1.0393 1.0482 1.0454 1.0537 1.0209 1.0342 0.9474 0.9759 1.0043 1.0105 1.0306 1.0796 1.0355 1.0478 1.0578 1.1549 1.0848 1.0417 1.0403 1.0381 1.0471 1.0442 1.0525 1.0197 1.0331 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.04 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF 10 Feb’17 3 Feb’17 0.9947 1.0380 1.0009 1.0007 1.0228 1.0013 1.0182 1.0008 0.9941 1.0374 1.0003 1.0002 1.0222 1.0007 1.0176 1.0002 *Buying price Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.05 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 8 of 13 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
9. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 January 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAGF) (PDSF) (PEF) (PGF) (PIX) (PINDGF) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSF) (PSSF) (PSA30F) (PBGF) (PBGSQF) 0.1 -0.3 1.2 1.4 0.1 1.6 1.0 -0.2 0.6 2.6 -1.4 2.6 -1.2 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.3 5.8 5.8 5.6 7.1 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.3 7.6 6.7 7.1 (PIA40GF) (PIDF) (PIEF) (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (P ITTIKAL) (PITSEQ) (PISVF) (PBIEF) 1.3 2.0 1.9 0.7 -0.4 0.5 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.9 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.6 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.5 5.9 6.5 6.3 7.0 (PFSF) (P SmallCap) (PSSCF) (PIOF) (PISTF) (PITGF) 3.0 7.4 3.9 6.0 5.1 -0.7 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High High 7.1 7.8 7.3 7.5 8.3 8.2 (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 6.8 17.4 11.5 15.1 1.7 12.7 6.6 12.4 8.9 10.9 9.2 8.7 7.8 6.7 8.2 10.9 9.5 14.8 13.7 17.3 7.8 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.5 14.2 14.7 11.4 9.8 10.6 8.7 12.0 8.5 14.9 10.4 10.5 8.3 10.0 7.5 9.9 11.3 12.4 13.5 14.8 10.9 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Public Aggressive Growth Fund Public Dividend Select Fund Public Equity Fund Public Growth Fund Public Index Fund Public Industry Growth Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund Public Select Alpha-30 Fund PB Growth Fund PB Growth Sequel Fund Islamic Non Regional Funds Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund Public Islamic Dividend Fund Public Islamic Equity Fund Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund Public Ittikal Fund Public Ittikal Sequel Fund Public Islamic Savings Fund PB Islamic Equity Fund Small & Mid Cap Funds Public Focus Select Fund Public SmallCap Fund Public Strategic SmallCap Fund Public Islamic Opportunities Fund Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Page 9 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 31 January 2017
10. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 10.1 12.0 8.3 10.5 10.1 9.1 High Very High High High High High 9.4 11.0 8.5 10.3 9.4 9.4 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 11.0 -0.5 10.4 High High High 9.6 10.5 9.5 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 2.9 6.1 12.0 6.6 5.5 3.1 0.9 5.9 10.3 2.3 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.5 7.8 9.3 5.9 7.9 4.3 4.1 9.2 11.3 3.2 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) 0.2 9.4 Low High 5.7 9.1 (PBOND) (PEBF) (PENTBF) (PIN Bond) (PSBF) (PSTBF) (PBBOND) (PBFI) (PBINFBF) 4.2 3.9 4.2 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.5 Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low 1.0 1.5 1.4 n.a. 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.9 (PI BOND) (PIEBF) (PI INCOME) (PIINFBF) (PISBF) (PISTBF) (PSKF) (PBASF) (PBIBF) (PBSKF) 4.8 4.2 3.7 4.6 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.6 Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low Low 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.0 (PMMF) (PBCMF) (PBCPF) 3.3 3.3 3.3 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 (PIMMF) (PBICMF) (PBICPF) 3.2 3.1 3.2 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Fund Name Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund III. BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund Public Enhanced Bond Fund Public Enterprises Bond Fund Public Institutional Bond Fund Public Select Bond Fund Public Strategic Bond Fund PB Bond Fund PB Fixed Income Fund PB Infrastructure Bond Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund Public Islamic Income Fund Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund Public Islamic Select Bond Fund Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund Public Sukuk Fund PB Aiman Sukuk Fund PB Islamic Bond Fund PB Sukuk Fund IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund PB Cash Management Fund PB Cash Plus Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund PB Islamic Cash Management Fund PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund Page 10 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 January 2017
11. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PRS-GRF) (PRS-MDF) (PRS-CVF) 0.8 0.9 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (PRS-IGRF) (PRS-IMDF) (PRS-ICVF) 3.9 2.3 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Fund Name V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 30 December 2016 (Source: Lipper) Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 31 December 2016 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.785, 1.785 < VF ≤ 5.965, 5.965 < VF ≤ 8.015, 8.015 < VF ≤ 10.605 and VF more than 10.605 respectively. For this period to 30 June 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 31 December 2016. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 11 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 January 2017
12. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 12 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
13. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 13 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.