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State Bank of Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - March 2018

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State Bank of Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - March 2018

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  1. Inflation Monitor March 2018 State Bank of Pakistan Statistics & DWH Department
  2. ISSN 1992-8327 (print) ISSN 1992-8335 (online) The analysis in this document is based on data   Provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), for domestic inflation analysis Retrieved from IMF & World Bank websites for global inflation analysis http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/inflation_Monitor ii
  3. Contents 1 . Inflation in Brief ………………………………………………… 2. City- wise Inflation …………………………………….................... 3. Income Group- wise Inflation …………………………………………………. 4. Weighted Contribution ………………………………………………… 5. Inflation Diffusion Index ………………………………………………… 6. Domestic Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 7. Global Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 8. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI ………………………………………………... Annexure A Table A1 CPI Inflation by Groups Table A2 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) of CPI Basket Table A3 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A3.1 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM) Table A3.2 Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A3.3 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY) Table A3.4 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY) Table A4 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items Table A5 City-wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups Table A6 City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A7 Income Group-wise Inflation Table A8 SPI Item-wise Price Movements Table A9 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY)-WPI Items Table A10 Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Table A11 Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Table A12 Price Indices Table A13 International Commodity Prices/ Indices Table A14 CPI Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted Table A15 CPI Food Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted Table A16 CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Table A17 CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Table A18 CPI Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted Table A19 CPI Food Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted Figure A1 Figure A2 Figure A3 Figure A4 Annexure B CPI Non-food Inflation Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities Group- wise/ overall Inflation Diffusion Index and Respective/ Overall YoY Inflation Technical Notes Page 1 7 8 10 11 12 12 13 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29-30 31-32 33 34 35 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-47
  4. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Team  Mazhar Hussain Sr. Joint Director mazhar.hussain@sbp.org.pk  Muhammad Abdus Salam Joint Director muhammad.abdussalam@sbp.org.pk iv
  5. State Bank of Pakistan Review Inflation in Brief 1 . Headline CPI inflation (2007-08=100) is recorded at level of 3.2 percent on year-on-year basis in March 2018 as compared to 3.8 percent in the previous month and 4.9 percent during corresponding month of last year. 2. CPI inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at level of 0.3 percent in March 2018 as compared to -0.3 percent in the previous month and 0.8 percent during corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted monthon-month CPI inflation is recorded at 0.20 percent in March 2018 compared to 0.26 percent in the previous month. 3. Core inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis is recorded at 4.1 percent in March 2018 as compared to 4.3 percent in the previous month and 4.5 percent during corresponding month of last year. 4. On month-on-month basis, the Core inflation (trimmed) is recorded at 0.2 percent in March 2018 as compared to 0.1 percent in the previous month and remained at level during corresponding month of last year. 5. Non-food, non-energy inflation measured by CPI Core (NFNE) on year-onyear basis is recorded at 5.8 percent in March 2018 and 5.2 percent in the previous month and during corresponding month of last year. 6. Core NFNE inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 0.7 percent in March 2018 as compared to 0.2 percent in the previous month. Core NFNE inflation was 0.1 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 7. WPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at 3.6 percent in March 2018 as compared to 4.1 percent in the previous month and 6.4 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 1
  6. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 8. WPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 0.2 percent in March 2018 as compared to -0.1 percent in the previous month. It was 0.7 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 9. SPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at -0.9 percent in March 2018 as compared to 1.3 percent in the previous month. It was 3.9 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 10. SPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at -0.2 percent in March 2018 as compared to -0.9 percent in the previous month. It was 2.0 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 1.1 A New Measure of Core Inflation A new method of permanently excluding relatively volatile commodities from CPI basket in Pakistan has been developed by SBP. This is achieved by making use of trimming approach on past data on monthly CPI changes to isolate a Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) as a new measure of core inflation. This method ensures inclusion of both food and non-food commodities that show persistent price behavior in Pakistan (see technical notes for details). Developments in core inflation measured by RSC- CPI for the month of March 2018 are described below: 11. Core RSC inflation on year-on-year basis is recorded at 4.4 percent in March 2018 compared to 4.1 percent in the previous month and 5.0 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 12. Core RSC inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at 0.6 percent in March 2018 compared to 0.2 percent in the previous month and in the corresponding month of last year. 2
  7. State Bank of Pakistan Monthly CPI , WPI and SPI data is summarized in the following table. Table 1.1 Inflation Trends (percent) (Base 2007- 08 = 100) CPI Inflation Period General Core Inflation Nonfood Food NFNE* YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM Trimmed WPI Inflation RSC** YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM SPI*** Inflation YoY MoM Mar-17 4.9 0.8 5.0 1.9 4.9 0.1 5.2 0.1 4.5 0.2 5.0 0.2 6.4 0.7 3.9 2.0 Apr-17 4.8 1.4 4.4 1.7 5.1 1.2 5.5 1.3 4.8 0.8 5.3 1.1 6.0 0.9 2.9 -0.7 May-17 5.0 0.0 4.9 -0.2 5.1 0.2 5.5 0.2 4.8 0.2 5.3 0.3 5.2 -0.2 2.9 -0.7 Jun-17 3.9 -0.4 2.4 -1.1 5.0 0.1 5.5 0.1 4.2 0.0 4.5 -0.4 3.3 -0.5 1.9 0.1 Jul-17 2.9 0.3 -0.1 0.0 5.1 0.6 5.6 0.7 4.0 0.4 4.4 0.4 0.7 -0.2 0.2 -0.6 Aug-17 3.4 0.2 1.2 0.4 5.0 0.1 5.5 0.1 4.2 0.1 4.3 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 Sep-17 3.9 0.6 2.4 1.3 4.9 0.2 5.4 0.1 4.1 0.1 4.2 0.1 1.6 0.1 2.2 1.6 Oct-17 3.8 0.7 2.2 0.6 4.9 0.8 5.3 0.9 4.0 0.6 4.3 0.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.8 Nov-17 4.0 0.4 2.4 0.4 5.1 0.4 5.4 0.3 4.2 0.3 4.3 0.2 2.9 0.4 2.5 0.5 Dec-17 4.6 -0.1 3.8 -0.6 5.1 0.2 5.5 0.2 4.7 0.2 4.3 0.1 3.4 0.4 2.7 -0.3 Jan-18 4.4 0.0 3.7 -1.0 4.9 0.8 5.2 0.8 4.6 0.6 4.0 0.6 4.7 1.8 2.6 -0.7 Feb-18 3.8 -0.3 2.2 -1.1 4.9 0.2 5.2 0.2 4.3 0.1 4.1 0.2 4.1 -0.1 1.3 -0.9 Mar-18 3.2 0.3 0.1 -0.3 5.4 0.7 5.8 0.7 4.1 0.2 4.4 0.6 3.6 0.2 -0.9 -0.2 * NFNE is Non-food non-energy ** Relatively Stable Component of CPI *** SPI for all income groups combined 3
  8. 4 1 0 -1 -5 -3 Mar-18 5 10 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Jul-17 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 YoY Feb-18 f : SPI 3 Jan-18 e: WPI -5 Dec-17 10 -3 Jun-17 b: CPI Food Nov-17 -5 Oct-17 -1 Sep-17 0 Aug-17 1 Aug-17 5 Jul-17 3 Jun-17 10 Jul-17 c: NFNE Jun-17 -3 Apr-17 -5 May-17 -1 May-17 1 May-17 0 Mar-17 3 Apr-17 5 Mar-17 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 a: CPI Apr-17 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 10 Mar-17 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Inflation Monitor, March 2018 Fig 1.1: Summary of Price Inflation 10 MoM 2 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -3 d: 20% Trimmed Mean 2 10 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 2 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -3
  9. 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 Mar-16 15 0 0 -5 -5 e : SPI Apr-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Mar-18 Jan-18 Nov-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 YoY Jul-17 Oct-17 5 Nov-17 5 May-17 10 Jan-17 c: 20% Trimmed Mean Mar-17 10 Nov-16 15 Sep-16 d: WPI Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Jul-16 Jun-16 May-16 Apr-16 Mar-16 15 Jul-16 b: NFNE May-16 15 Mar-16 Mar-18 Jan-18 Nov-17 Sep-17 Jul-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Nov-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 May-16 State Bank of Pakistan Fig 1.2:Movements in Price Indices (percent) a: CPI 12mma 10 5 0 -5 5
  10. 6 d : WPI 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 Mar-18 4 Dec-17 -4 Jun-17 -4 Sep-17 -2 Mar-17 -2 Sep-16 0 Dec-16 0 Jun-16 2 Dec-15 2 Mar-16 4 Sep-15 b: NFNE Jun-15 4 Mar-15 Mar-18 Dec-17 Sep-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Dec-16 Sep-16 Jun-16 Mar-16 Dec-15 Sep-15 Jun-15 Mar-15 Mar-18 Jan-18 Nov-17 Sep-17 Jul-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Nov-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 May-16 Mar-16 Jan-16 Nov-15 Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Inflation Monitor, March 2018 Fig 1.3:Movements in Price Indices -MoM ( percent) 4 a: CPI 2 0 -2 -4 c: 20% Trimmed Mean e: SPI
  11. State Bank of Pakistan Fig 1 .4: Trends in Consumer Price Inflation a: Consumer Price Index b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 10 Consumer Price Index (2007-08=100). 230 8 Percent 220 210 6 4 200 2 2016-17 2017-18 c: Inflation Build-up over June 2016-17 May June April March January February December October 2015-16 November September July August May 0 June April March January February December October 2015-16 November September July August 190 2017-18 MoM Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rates 1.0 10 0.8 Percent 8 0.6 0.4 6 0.2 4 0.0 -0.2 2 -0.4 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2016-17 June May April March February January December November October September August -0.6 July June May April March February January December November October September July August 0 2017-18 2. City wise Inflation CPI Inflation on year-on-year basis in federal and provincial capitals of Pakistan showed mixed trend during March 2018. Among these five cities, the lowest inflation was observed in Karachi at 1.9 percent while the highest inflation was observed in Islamabad at 3.8 percent (Table A6 of annexure-A). 7
  12. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table 2.1 City-wise Inflation of Selected Cities (percent) Mar-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 MoM 0.8 YoY 4.9 MoM -0.3 YoY 3.8 MoM 0.3 YoY 3.2 Islamabad 0.6 5.7 -0.1 4.4 0.0 3.8 Karachi 0.9 4.9 0.1 2.9 0.0 1.9 Lahore 1.4 5.5 -0.4 4.4 0.7 3.7 Peshawar 0.5 3.1 -0.3 3.2 -0.1 2.6 Quetta 0.8 3.9 -1.2 5.0 -0.3 3.7 Overall CPI 3. Income Group wise Inflation Income group-wise data shows that income group above Rs. 35,000 witnessed higher inflation as compared to other quintiles as well as overall CPI during March 2018 in General, Food and Non-food groups. The income groups (Up to Rs. 8, 000) observed lowest inflation in general CPI, food groups and non-food groups among income groups during the month of March 2018 (Table A7 of annexure-A). Table 3.1 Income Group- wise Inflation (YoY) (percent) General Income Groups 8 Mar-17 Food Non-food Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 All Groups Combined 4.9 3.8 3.2 5.0 2.2 0.1 4.9 4.9 5.4 Up to Rs. 8,000 4.5 2.7 1.5 4.2 1.3 -1.1 4.8 4.3 4.6 Rs. 8,001- 12,000 4.5 2.9 1.9 4.6 1.6 -0.7 4.5 4.3 4.7 Rs. 12,001- 18,000 4.8 3.1 2.2 4.8 1.7 -0.6 4.7 4.4 4.8 Rs. 18,001- 35,000 4.9 3.4 2.6 5.2 1.8 -0.3 4.7 4.6 5.1 Above Rs. 35,000 5.1 4.5 4.3 5.4 3.1 1.1 5.0 5.2 5.9
  13. Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Nov-17 -2 Oct-17 0 Oct-17 2 Sep-17 4 Sep-17 6 Aug-17 c : CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY) Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Upto Rs. 8,000 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 All Groups combined Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 State Bank of Pakistan Fig 3.1: Income Group- wise Inflation a: CPI Overall Inflation (YoY) 6 Above Rs. 35,000 4 2 0 -2 b: CPI Food Inflation (YoY) 6 4 2 0 -2 9
  14. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 4. Weighted Contribution The weighted contribution of food group in the overall inflation decreased to 1.07 percent during March 2018 from 23.85 percent in previous month. It was 41.86 percent in March 2017. The weighted contribution of non-food group increased to 98.93 percent in March 2018 from 76.15 percent in previous month. Table 4.1 Weighted Contribution to CPI Inflation (YoY) Period 10 Food Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & Other Fuel Transport Education Mar-17 41.86 6.08 26.25 5.34 9.03 Others 11.44 Apr-17 37.84 5.94 28.43 5.11 11.07 11.60 May-17 40.46 6.15 27.25 4.96 9.55 11.63 Jun-17 24.92 8.04 34.43 5.77 11.93 14.92 Jul-17 -1.32 11.08 48.14 6.37 16.42 19.31 Aug-17 15.23 9.58 41.22 4.54 13.48 15.94 Sep-17 26.02 8.46 36.50 4.83 9.28 14.91 Oct-17 24.31 8.25 34.17 5.96 13.05 14.27 Nov-17 25.04 7.95 32.53 6.73 13.57 14.18 Dec-17 34.01 6.68 28.47 5.73 11.85 13.26 Jan-18 34.02 8.17 25.57 7.58 12.23 12.43 Feb-18 23.85 10.07 29.89 8.71 13.92 13.56 Mar-18 1.07 12.39 35.10 11.73 23.44 16.27
  15. State Bank of Pakistan 5 . Inflation Diffusion Index Table 5.1 Inflation Diffusion Index - based on MoM change Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 General 28.5 41.6 35.3 22.4 36.8 26.8 33.1 44.6 37.7 39.2 48.9 32.5 40.2 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 25.7 40.4 27.1 5.3 28.7 17.5 17.4 46.1 17.1 25.0 42.1 19.3 20.4 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Clothing & Footwear 33.3 100.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 -50.0 0.0 50.0 33.3 50.0 33.3 33.3 66.7 25.4 45.8 54.2 47.5 52.5 49.2 42.4 44.1 59.3 78.0 78.0 44.1 47.5 0.0 41.7 19.4 13.9 55.6 27.8 19.4 41.7 30.6 41.7 44.4 30.6 41.7 44.9 56.5 73.9 42.0 63.8 47.8 62.3 60.9 66.7 43.5 75.4 62.3 69.6 38.5 38.5 17.9 7.7 30.8 20.5 33.3 25.6 33.3 35.9 43.6 33.3 30.8 11.6 11.6 11.6 16.3 16.3 16.3 20.9 34.9 25.6 20.9 32.6 23.3 27.9 50.0 50.0 16.7 33.3 16.7 0.0 16.7 25.0 25.0 8.3 41.7 41.7 25.0 23.1 17.9 12.8 10.3 20.5 23.1 30.8 17.9 20.5 20.5 23.1 23.1 30.8 12.5 37.5 6.3 12.5 18.8 6.3 0.0 50.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 83.3 83.3 66.7 66.7 33.3 0.0 83.3 100.0 33.3 66.7 66.7 33.3 50.0 45.7 57.1 57.1 40.0 37.1 37.1 60.0 68.6 60.0 77.1 54.3 31.4 74.3 28.1 40.2 38.5 28.4 42.3 33.4 38.2 43.2 45.0 43.2 51.5 36.7 46.2 Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous NFNE See annexure B (Technical Notes) for the definition of Inflation Diffusion Index. 11
  16. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 6. Domestic Commodity Prices Table 6.1 Inflation in Domestic CPI Food Commodities (percent) Mar-17 Sr. No Item Wheat Wheat Flour Bag Rice Basmati Sup. Qlty. Pulse Masoor (Washed) Pulse Moong (Washed) Pulse Mash (Washed) Pulse Gram Vegetable Ghee (Loose) Sugar Refined Milk Fresh (Unboiled) Tapal Danedar Tea 200 Gm Beef With Bone Av.Qlty. Mutton Av.Qlty. Chicken Farm Broiler (Live) Eggs Farm Potatoes Onion Tomatoes Ginger Garlic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Feb-18 Mar-18 Unit YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY 10 Kg 10 Kg Kg Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Ltr Pkt Kg Kg Kg Doz Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg 0.07 0.55 -1.05 -0.17 -2.08 MoM -0.50 -1.80 0.06 -0.86 0.17 -1.66 -0.74 5.67 1.42 15.52 1.06 14.91 0.89 -8.93 -3.78 -16.36 -1.31 -13.28 -0.24 -17.22 -3.66 -13.87 0.41 -11.42 -0.92 -19.95 -3.54 -23.47 -3.30 -22.08 -1.80 10.00 -8.06 -17.22 -0.65 -11.86 -2.11 5.77 -0.33 0.98 0.02 1.10 -0.22 -2.82 -4.39 -17.80 -3.44 -14.91 -1.03 3.88 0.39 4.11 0.16 3.71 0.00 5.99 5.54 10.24 1.73 9.62 4.94 3.20 0.89 7.01 0.43 6.83 0.73 5.82 1.06 11.09 0.37 11.34 1.29 18.92 21.60 20.15 -5.02 3.14 4.39 -7.26 6.79 -21.34 -6.99 -10.01 9.66 49.92 15.48 7.49 -18.76 -14.86 -8.53 -17.60 18.16 45.59 -25.29 -0.39 -19.16 128.17 68.43 -3.77 -20.52 -54.33 -20.06 -1.35 -1.79 18.71 -2.55 19.57 -1.08 11.56 -1.64 -43.95 -0.09 -40.42 4.55 7. Global Commodity Prices Table 7.1 Changes in Major Global Indices (percent) Item/ Group Food Metals Energy Agricultural Cotton Source: World Bank 12 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-18 YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM 6.1 22.4 38.0 4.5 32.6 -2.0 -0.6 -5.9 -2.0 1.9 0.4 18.4 15.9 -1.0 3.7 2.1 -0.1 -5.4 1.9 -3.1 3.7 14.2 23.9 2.6 6.2 1.3 -4.1 0.6 1.6 4.4
  17. State Bank of Pakistan 8 . Seasonal Adjustment in CPI Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the seasonal effects from a time series after decomposing it into seasonal, trend, cycle and irregular components. The purpose is to identify the different components of the time series and thus provide a better understanding of its underlying behavior. Seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred for analyzing general price trends in the economy because they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year. Various statistical methods can be used to decompose a time series into its constituent components. The State Bank of Pakistan uses X-12- ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method for this purpose. The changes in consumer prices are normally reported in terms of year-on-year and month-on-month basis. Seasonal adjustment is particularly useful for analyzing month-on-month changes. The monthly data series of Consumer Price Index (CPI) from July 2008 to March 2018 has been used for seasonal adjustment analysis. The seasonal analysis is carried out without taking trading-day or Islamic calendar month’s effects. Figure 8.1 reveals that seasonality in CPI has been increasing over the period of last four years. Average seasonal factors reveal strong seasonality during the calendar year. There is an upward seasonality during the months from July to November and downward seasonality in the remaining months of the year. Upward and downward seasonality is above and below the trend line respectively. It is important to note that seasonal factors are estimates based on present and past experience and that future data may not necessarily show the same pattern of seasonal factors. 13
  18. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Fig. 8.1 Seasonal Factors of CPI Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Seasonal Factors of CPI 103 103 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 99 98 98 Jan-18 Mar-18 Nov-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 May-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 May-16 Jan-16 Mar-16 Nov-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Mar-15 May-15 97 97 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 99.6 99.6 98.9 99.1 100. 99.8 99.7 Note: Data Available in Annex Table 16. Fig. 8.2 Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Note: Data Available in Annex Table 17. 14 Jan-18 Mar-18 Nov-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 May-17 97 Jan-17 97 Mar-17 98 Nov-16 98 Jul-16 99 Sep-16 99 May-16 100 Jan-16 100 Mar-16 101 Sep-15 101 Nov-15 102 Jul-15 102 Mar-15 103 May-15 103 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100.8 101.2 101.3 101.4 101.4 99.52 99.05 97.83 98.47 99.82 99.49 99.50
  19. State Bank of Pakistan Figures 8 .3 & 8.4 show that seasonally adjusted series are relatively smoother than the original series due to the removal of the seasonal variations. The trend follows the long-term movement in original series, and is smoother than the original series because some irregular fluctuations have been removed. Fig. 8.3 Seasonal Plots of CPI Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 FY14 FY15 Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI FY16 FY17 FY18 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 8.4 Seasonal Plots of CPI (Food) Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI Food Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI Food 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 15
  20. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Fig. 8.5 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Seasonally adjusted CPI for March 2018 stood at 222.22 against 220.25 in original series showing an increase of 1.97 on account of adjustment of downward seasonality in March 2018. Seasonally adjusted CPI food group for March 2018 stood at 237.37 against 233.67 in original series showing an increase of 3.70 on account of adjustment of downward seasonality in March 2018. Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted CPI series stood at 0.20% reflecting an increase during March 2018 over previous month and an increase of 0.31% in original series. Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted Fig. 8.6 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Food CPI food group series stood at -0.86% reflecting a MoM % Changes in CPI Food Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series decrease during March 2018 over previous month and 3 2 a decrease of -0.27% in original series. 1 0 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 -3 MoM Annualize % Change in CPI Food Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Mar-17 16 -2 Apr-17 The most recent annual rate of inflation is usually indicated by annualizing the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate. Annualized rate of CPI inflation in March 2018 (corresponding to the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate) is 2.46 percent. -1 Mar-17 It is important to note that inflation rates should be analyzed on the basis of seasonally adjusted rates. This is especially needed for inflation rates on month-onmonth basis.
  21. State Bank of Pakistan Annexure A Table A1 : CPI Inflation by Groups (percent) Weights Mar-17 MoM change Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-17 YoY change Feb-18 Mar-18 I. Food Group Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Restaurant & Hotels 37.5 1.9 -1.1 -0.3 5.0 2.2 0.1 34.8 2.0 -1.3 -0.4 4.6 3.4 1.0 1.4 0.4 1.4 1.0 12.4 -17.4 -16.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 3.5 6.5 6.2 II. Non-Food Group 62.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.9 4.9 5.4 7.6 0.1 0.4 0.3 3.6 4.6 4.8 29.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 4.2 4.3 4.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.3 4.1 4.5 Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas &. other Fuels& Household Furnishing Equip. Maintenance etc Health 2.2 0.5 1.1 0.3 13.7 5.0 4.8 Transport 7.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 4.4 5.6 6.4 Communication 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.3 0.5 Recreation & Culture 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.6 Education 3.9 0.0 0.0 4.9 10.9 12.1 17.6 2.8 0.5 -0.2 0.4 4.1 5.9 5.8 100.0 0.8 -0.3 0.3 4.9 3.8 3.2 Miscellaneous Headline Table A2: Distribution of Price changes (YoY) of CPI basket No. of items in each inflation range Groups I. Food Group Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Restaurant & Hotels II. Non-Food Group Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels Subdued Moderate Double digit Decrease or increase increase (5% increase % Total number no change (>0% but but less than (10% or changes of items (0% or less) <5%) 10%) more) Mar-18 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-17 Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar-18 0.1 124 125 25 3318 5317 5518 2717 2118 1917 16 1.0 112 113 25 30 47 51 24 20 16 12 -16.9 6 6 0 3 1 1 2 0 3 2 6.2 6 6 0 0 5 3 1 1 0 2 5.4 348 348 81 67 177 167 68 80 22 34 4.8 59 59 7 8 37 27 15 22 0 2 4.3 36 36 11 13 11 4 12 16 2 3 4.5 69 69 9 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc 4.8 39 39 5 Health 6.4 43 43 24 Transport 0.5 12 12 3 Communication 1.6 39 39 19 Recreation & Culture 17.6 16 16 1 Education 5.8 35 35 2 Miscellaneous 3.2 472 473 106 Overall Note: Prices of 14 seasonal items were not reported during the month. 1 52 49 8 18 0 1 5 22 5 13 0 0 100 21 13 4 14 3 22 230 27 13 4 19 3 21 222 6 2 4 4 8 9 95 4 3 1 1 2 13 101 7 4 1 2 4 2 41 3 5 2 6 11 1 50 17
  22. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table A3: Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) in March, 2018 Top 15 Contributors YoY Change Weighted Items/ Contributors Weights Mar -17 Mar -18 Contribution Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 House Rent 21.81 6.62 5.43 31.79 Education 3.94 10.90 17.60 23.44 Milk Fresh 6.68 3.78 3.78 9.81 Motor Fuel 3.03 10.79 13.18 8.53 Meat 2.43 4.09 8.39 7.97 Rice 1.58 8.14 13.29 5.15 Fresh Fruits 1.86 14.48 4.99 3.41 Tailoring 0.88 6.63 8.13 3.23 Personal Equipments 0.84 3.61 8.81 3.15 Ready Made Food 1.23 3.52 6.21 2.98 Cotton Cloth 1.73 3.88 4.85 2.75 Household Servent 1.04 1.71 6.17 2.32 Ready Made Garments 0.97 3.32 6.68 2.26 Betel Leaves & Nuts 0.02 3.53 280.15 2.25 Personal Care 1.49 4.97 4.52 Total 49.56 2.18 111.22 Bottom 15 Contributors Cigarettes A.1Ranked by Weighted Contribution 2 Tomatoes 3 Fresh Vegetables 4 Sugar 5 Pulse Mash (Washed) 6 Potatoes 7 Pulse Gram 8 Wheat Flour 9 Pulse Masoor 10 Pulse Moong 11 Besan 12 Text Books 13 Wheat 14 Gur 15 Gram Whole Total 18 1.39 12.55 -19.98 -15.37 0.43 128.16 -54.32 -7.22 1.71 11.04 -10.32 -5.75 1.04 -2.82 -14.91 -4.87 0.21 -19.95 -22.08 -1.87 0.46 49.92 -14.86 -1.85 0.24 10.00 -11.86 -1.19 4.16 -1.75 -0.76 -0.98 0.27 -8.98 -13.38 -0.97 0.23 -17.22 -11.42 -0.95 0.15 14.56 -9.68 -0.62 0.57 0.62 -1.51 -0.36 0.35 0.07 -2.09 -0.22 0.02 -2.48 -8.57 -0.07 0.16 27.59 -0.95 11.40 -0.06 -42.36
  23. State Bank of Pakistan Table A3 .1: Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM) in March, 2018 Top 15 Contributors MoM Change Items/ Contributors Weights Feb-18 Mar-18 Weighted Contribution Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Education 3.94 0.00 4.89 75.45 Fresh Fruits 1.86 5.83 6.65 46.23 Chicken 1.36 -5.02 4.39 17.74 Motor Fuel 3.03 2.10 2.26 16.76 Tea 0.84 1.74 3.12 11.23 Meat 2.43 0.41 0.92 9.76 Betel Leaves & Nuts 0.02 53.06 22.25 5.74 Motor Vehicle 0.66 0.09 3.14 5.59 News Papers 0.19 0.82 8.90 4.79 Household Servent 1.04 0.00 0.97 3.95 Cotton Cloth 1.73 0.38 0.65 3.95 Transport Services 2.70 0.50 0.46 3.63 Ready Made Garments 0.97 0.00 0.58 2.15 Construction Input Items 0.56 0.83 0.93 2.04 Rice 1.58 0.60 0.44 Total 22.94 1.98 210.99 Bottom 15 Contributors Fresh by Vegetables A.1Ranked Weighted Contribution Onion 2 3 Tomatoes 4 Eggs 5 Potatoes 6 Wheat Flour 7 Sugar 8 Pulse Gram 9 Gram Whole 10 Pulse Mash (Washed) 11 Besan 12 Pulse Moong 13 Pulse Masoor 14 Wheat 15 Gur Total 1.71 -8.10 -7.33 -40.90 0.52 -25.29 -19.16 -37.85 0.43 -20.52 -20.06 -15.76 0.46 -10.02 -7.26 -10.54 0.46 -18.76 -8.53 -10.25 4.16 0.23 -0.62 -8.21 1.04 -3.44 -1.04 -3.01 0.24 -0.65 -2.11 -1.97 0.16 -1.45 -2.46 -1.71 0.21 -3.30 -1.80 -1.25 0.15 -1.03 -1.49 -0.91 0.23 0.41 -0.91 -0.70 0.27 -1.63 -0.71 -0.47 0.35 -0.17 -0.50 -0.22 0.02 -4.66 -2.70 10.42 -0.22 -133.94 19
  24. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table A3.2: Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) in March, 2018 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Mar -17 Mar -18 Weighted Contribution A. Ranked by Percentage Change Betel Leaves & Nuts A.1 Ranked by Weighted Contribution Kerosene Oil 2 Education 3 Rice 4 Motor Fuel 5 News Papers 6 Eggs 7 Construction Wage Rate 8 Personal Equipments 9 10 Cleaning & Laundering 11 Meat 12 Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee 13 Tailoring 14 Motor Vehicle 15 Beans Total 0.02 0.01 3.94 1.58 3.03 0.19 0.46 0.33 0.84 0.21 2.43 0.59 0.88 0.66 0.03 15.21 3.53 3.88 10.90 8.14 10.79 2.87 6.79 4.68 3.61 3.84 4.09 8.71 6.63 4.67 -0.72 280.15 30.58 17.60 13.29 13.18 12.34 9.65 9.05 8.81 8.59 8.39 8.14 8.13 7.48 6.81 2.25 0.05 23.44 5.15 8.53 0.62 1.15 1.03 3.15 0.69 7.97 1.92 3.23 1.24 0.06 60.46 21.81 6.68 4.40 4.16 3.94 3.15 3.03 2.70 2.43 2.07 1.86 1.75 1.73 1.71 1.58 63.03 6.62 3.78 0.00 -1.75 10.90 1.42 10.79 0.73 4.09 4.23 14.48 3.08 3.88 11.04 8.14 5.43 3.78 0.00 -0.76 17.60 0.32 13.18 1.77 8.39 1.22 4.99 1.87 4.85 -10.32 13.29 31.79 9.81 0.00 -0.98 23.44 0.19 8.53 1.33 7.97 0.52 3.41 0.65 2.75 -5.75 5.15 88.80 B. Ranked by Weights House Rent 1 A.2 Ranked by Weighted Contribution Milk Fresh Electricity 3 Wheat Flour 4 Education 5 Communication & Apparatus 6 Motor Fuel 7 Transport Services 8 Meat 9 10 Vegetable Ghee 11 Fresh Fruits 12 Cooking Oil 13 Cotton Cloth 14 Fresh Vegetables 15 Rice Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in CPI, which is 3.2 percent in March, 2018. 20
  25. State Bank of Pakistan Table A3 .3: Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY) in March, 2018 Items/ Contributors A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Milk Fresh 1 Meat 2 Rice 3 Fresh Fruits 4 Ready Made Food 5 Betel Leaves & Nuts 6 Tea 7 Beverages 8 Bakery & Confectionary 9 10 Chicken Total Weights YoY Change Mar -17 Mar -18 Weighted Contribution 6.68 2.43 1.58 1.86 1.23 0.02 0.84 1.20 1.16 1.36 18.36 3.78 4.09 8.14 14.48 3.52 3.53 8.68 1.65 2.27 18.92 3.78 8.39 13.29 4.99 6.21 280.15 4.46 3.62 3.43 3.14 9.81 7.97 5.15 3.41 2.98 2.25 1.53 1.38 1.24 1.24 36.96 0.02 1.58 0.46 2.43 0.03 1.23 0.25 0.04 0.63 1.86 8.54 3.53 8.14 6.79 4.09 -0.72 3.52 1.08 5.38 2.95 14.48 280.15 13.29 9.65 8.39 6.81 6.21 6.03 5.38 5.13 4.99 2.25 5.15 1.15 7.97 0.06 2.98 0.58 0.11 1.21 3.41 24.87 B. Ranked by Percentage Change Betel Leaves & Nuts 1 A.2 Ranked Rice by Weighted Contribution Eggs 3 Meat 4 Beans 5 Ready Made Food 6 Dry Fruits 7 Honey 8 Milk Product 9 10 Fresh Fruits Total C. Ranked by Weights Milk Fresh 1 A.2 Ranked Weighted Contribution Wheatby Flour Meat 3 Vegetable Ghee 4 Fresh Fruits 5 Cooking Oil 6 Fresh Vegetables 7 Rice 8 Cigarettes 9 10 Chicken 6.68 3.78 3.78 9.81 4.16 -1.75 -0.76 -0.98 2.43 4.09 8.39 7.97 2.07 4.23 1.22 0.52 1.86 14.48 4.99 3.41 1.75 3.08 1.87 0.65 1.71 11.04 -10.32 -5.75 1.58 8.14 13.29 5.15 1.39 12.55 -19.98 -15.37 1.36 18.92 3.14 1.24 Total 25.01 6.65 Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in CPI Food, which is 0.1 percent in March, 2018. 21
  26. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table A3.4: Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY) in March, 2018 Items/ Contributors A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution House Rent 1 Education 2 Motor Fuel 3 Tailoring 4 Personal Equipments 5 Cotton Cloth 6 Household Servent 7 Ready Made Garments 8 Personal Care 9 10 Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee Total Weights YoY Change Mar -17 Mar -18 Weighted Contribution 21.81 3.94 3.03 0.88 0.84 1.73 1.04 0.97 1.49 0.59 36.34 6.62 10.90 10.79 6.63 3.61 3.88 1.71 3.32 4.97 8.71 5.43 17.60 13.18 8.13 8.81 4.85 6.17 6.68 4.52 8.14 31.79 23.44 8.53 3.23 3.15 2.75 2.32 2.26 2.18 1.92 81.57 0.01 3.94 3.03 0.19 0.33 0.84 0.21 0.59 0.88 0.66 10.69 3.88 10.90 10.79 2.87 4.68 3.61 3.84 8.71 6.63 4.67 30.58 17.60 13.18 12.34 9.05 8.81 8.59 8.14 8.13 7.48 0.05 23.44 8.53 0.62 1.03 3.15 0.69 1.92 3.23 1.24 43.89 21.81 4.40 3.94 3.15 3.03 2.70 1.73 1.58 1.55 1.49 45.39 6.62 0.00 10.90 1.42 10.79 0.73 3.88 0.00 0.89 4.97 5.43 0.00 17.60 0.32 13.18 1.77 4.85 0.00 0.57 4.52 31.79 0.00 23.44 0.19 8.53 1.33 2.75 0.00 0.21 2.18 70.43 B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Kerosene Oil Education Motor Fuel News Papers Construction Wage Rate Personal Equipments Cleaning & Laundering Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee Tailoring Motor Vehicle Total C. Ranked by Weights 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 House Rent Electricity Education Communication & Apparatus Motor Fuel Transport Services Cotton Cloth Gas Footware Personal Care Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in CPI Non-food, which is 5.4 percent in March, 2018. 22
  27. State Bank of Pakistan Table A4 : Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items: March, 2018 Decrease or no change Health Transport Communic ation Education Recreation & Culture Restaura nt & Hotels Miscellaneo us Subdued increase (Greater than 0% but less than 5%) Tomatoes, Garlic, Peas, Tomato Ketchup Pulse Mash (Washed), Sugar Ahmed/Mitchells, Ice Cream Refined, Potatoes, Walls, Lemon, Curd, Almonds Cauliflower. Whole Av.Qlty. Moderate increase Double digit increase (10% or more) (5% but less than 10%) Eggs Farm, Tapal Danedar Coconut Dry Av.Qlty., Ginger, Cuminseed White Tea 200 Gm, Carrot, Chillies National, Radish, Rice Basmati Sup. Qlty., Rice Powd.National 200 Gm, Butter Basmati Broken Av.Ql, Turnip, Brinjal, Rice Local Packed, Guava. Basmati 385/386. Cigarettes Capstan 20,S, Cigarettes Morven Gold 20,S, Cigarettes K-20,S. Cigarettes Gold Leaf 20,S. Gents Shoe, Art 1109 Servis, Child Shoe Power Lite Bata, Sports Shoes, Ladies Spoung Chappal Bata, Ladies Sandal Bata, Gents Sandal Bata. Shirting Av.Qlty., Tropical Suiting Law.Pur, Vest/Shameez (Women) Avg.Qlty, Heavy Wt Suiting Law.Pur Sup. Qlty, SecondHand Coat For Men. Washing Ch. (KamizFrock W/Wear Girls, Brassier Av.Qlty, Shalwar), Tailoring AwamiSuit (Male), Tailoring Charges Pant (Men), Gloves Av.Qlty, Dry Cleaning Suit Coat Pant. Cement (Local), Elect.Charges Upto 50 Units, Elect.Charges 01 100 Units, Elect.Charges Above 1000 Units, Elect.Charges 301 - 1000 Washing Powder 1000 Grm Units, Elect. Charges (Express), Overall/ Combined, Gas Chrg Over 100 - 200 Mmbtu, Gas Chrg All Over 500 Mmbtu, Gas Chrg Over Calcium Sandoz, 300 - 500Syrup Mmbtu, Gas Chrg Phenergan Syrup 120Gas Ml., Overall/ Combined, Betnesol Eye Drops, Chrg Up To 100 CubSancos Syrup (50 Ml.), Burnol Mmbtu, Gas Chrg Over 200 Cream 30 Gm,Elect.Charges - 300 Mmbtu, Tyre 101 - Car 300W/O Units,Tube, Plateform Ticket, Bus Fare Min (Within City), Bus Fare Max (Within City), Minibus Fare Max.Within City, Minibus Fare Min.Within Postal Envelope Domestic, City, Train Charges Fare Eco. > 500 Telephone Local Km., Train Fare Eco. 1-100 Call, Telephone Charges Km., Train Fare Eco. 101Outside City, U.M.S. Reg 500 K,Book Train Fare Ist Slp. Urdu Class Ix/X Charges Min., Mobile Cell> 500, Train Fare A/C Slp. (T.B.Board), Urdu Book 1Charges, 100, Fare A/C ClassTrain V (T.B.Board), Slp.101-500, English BookTrain ClassFare V1, Ist Slp.101-500, TrainIx Fare Maths Book Class Or A/C X, Slp > 500K, Tax Maths Book Car Calss V For 800 Cc To 1300 Cc, Air (T.B.Board), V.C.P. Fare Economy Class., Eng. Panasonic/Lg/National, SuzukiIst.Yr Fare Complete Min.Within Book Set, City, Train Fare Ist Slp. Tv 1English Book Ba/B.Sc, 100, Suzuki Maximum Licence Fee Fare Domestic, Urdu WityinBa/B.Sc, City, Taxi 4 Seater Book Pakistan Fare, Motorcycle Yamaha Studies Book Ba/B.Sc, 100 Cc,Book Full Ist.Year Tonga Charges, Maths (T.B. Board), Urdu Book Ist Year/ Inter, Firewood Whole, Timber Shesham Log, Bricks (New) Ist Class, Bajree, Plumber Wage Rate, Mason (Raj) Wage Rate, Unskilled Labour Wage Rat, Synthetic Enemal Ici, Electician Wage Rate(P/Day), Electician Wage Rate(P/Pnt), Synthetic Enemal Toilet Paper RollCharges (R.Petal), Robialac, Water Per Thermos StarvacBlocks 1 Ltr, Boot House, Cement Polish Cherry/Kiwi 50 Ml, (6"X8"X12"), Sand (Black Pit Single Without Foam, Sand), Bed House Rent For Q-Iv, Bed Sheet Bed House House RentSingle For Q-Ii, Sup.Qlty, Water Set Jug+6 Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee, Rent For Q-V, House Rent Glasses, Chair Shesham Blood Test (Cp) Charges, (Combined), House Rent For Wood, Elect. Iron Philips, Urine Test (Dr) Charges, Q-I, House Rent For Q-Iii, Matress Single(4"Thick), Gripe-Water Woodwards, Bulb Philips 100-Watt, Robin Blue (35 Gms), PanAc), Car Suzuki 800 Frying Cc (W/O. Steel Avg. Qlty, Household Gas Cylinder S.Size (L.P.G), Servant Female (Part Time), Car Service Charges, Water Cooler 9/10 Ltr., Dinning Table 6 Chairs, Air Cooler Asia, Celing Fan InternetSuper Charges, 56" Super Qlty, Almirah (Steel), Furnishing & Household Housing, Water, Equip. Elect, Gas & Maintenance other Fuels etc Clothing & Footwear Alcoholic Food & NonBeverages Alcoholic & Beverages Tobacco Groups Betel Nuts, Betel Leaves. Dinner Set Plastic 72 Pcs, Dari Cotton (6'X2 1/2'), Marriage Hall Charges Without Refreshment, Gas Burner Double, Tube Light Philips 40 Watt, Tab., Tissu Septran Paper Perfumed Trisil Tablets, 100, Aluminium Cooking Pan, Entox Tab., Thermometer PresureJouhar CookerJoshanda, 4 Ltr., Sewing China, Ecg Machine Needle (Singer), Charges, Sugar Test Towel(3'X2') Av. Qlty, Quilt (Random/Fasting), Disprin (Lihaf) 3 Outside Kg.Bandage Cotton, Tab., Cotton 2" - 4", Bus Fare CityPedestal (Non Fan Super Qlty,O.R.S. Non Stick Saniplast (1Puncture Putty), A/C),22" Tyre Charges, Cooking Pan, BlanketSyrup, (90" X (Nimcol), Lederplex Motor Cycle Service Charges, 54"), Electric Juicer, Hydryllin Syrup 120 Match Ml., Auto Rickshaw Fare, Cng, Box (Small), Bed Sheet Polyfax EyeCycle Ointment, Tyre Motor Without Double With Two Pillow Galxos-D (450 Gm), Amoxil Tube, With Tyres & MobileBicycle Set Cover, Chair Plastic Capsole 250 Overhauling Mg., Cac.Av.Qlty, 1000 Tube, Cycle Nokia/Sony/Ericsson (Chairman) Qlty, Lota Tab, Brufen Tabs 200-Mg., Charges, CarAv. Honda Civic Fax Charges (Local), Postal Plastic (Med Avg. Qlty, Vicks Vaporub/ Balm, Ear 1500 Cc, Tyre Car With Tube Envelope ForSize) Saudi Arabia, Table S.Steel Sup.Qlty, Drops (Cardisporine), General, Tyre Cycle, Motor Photostate Paper 70Charges, Gm, Weekly "Akhbar-E-Jahan", Postal Spoon Registration Harpic, Cot Iron (With Betnovate-N Ointment 5 Gm, Cycle Hero Cc, Motorcycle Fountain Pen70 Niwar)Av.Qlty, Table Daonil Tab. 5 Mg., Ventolin Honda Cd-70, Hero/Wings/China, Computer Shesham Wood, Set200 Tab. 2Mg., FlagylSofa Tab. Cd (Tdk/Imation), Exercise Wooden With Foam, Carpet Mg., Panadol Tab. Book Lined 80/10, Radio With Plain Av.National, Qlty, Refg. Extra/Plain, Calpol Syrup 60 C.Player Pencil Dawlence 10Tab. Cft., Ml., Renitec 5Electric Mg., Goldfish/Deer, Ball Pen Mba Tuition Fee, Coaching Coaching Fee For Class Ix/ X, Blubs "0"Dvd/Vcd Watt, Bucket(Balti) (Local), Charges For ClassPlayer Xi/ Xii Pvt Eng.Colege Fee (Ist Year), Plastic Med, Finis 500 Ml, Panasonic/Lg, Cable Charges, Science I.T. Tuition Split20" AirGroup, Conditioner 1.5 Ton, T.V Color China/Koria, Fees, HotpotGame Set Plastic Video Sega 316Pcs, Byte, Tawa20" Iorn (Medium Size) Cooked Dal (Av. Hotel), Tea Chicken Biryani Full/Double, T.V. Colored Sony, Paper Avg. Scape Qlty,(Ordinary), Electric Blub Prepared Bread Fool (27"X17"), Pen Ink Energy57 Saver 14 Watt, Sewing Tandoori St. Dollor MlSize, Bottle, Personnel Machine (Singer), S.Steel Computer (Branded), English Artificial Jewellary Set, Purse Gel Medium Size, Suitcase Plate Avg. Qlty, Book Ix OrS.Steel X, Tape Rexin Class (24"X16"X6"), Ladies (Leather) Av. Qlty, Deghchi Medium Size, Dry Recorder Cassette Toothbrush Sheild,(Blank), Shaving Toilet Soap Lifebouy 140 Cell 1.5Cassette Volt (Local), Gizer Video Blank. Cream Touch-Me/Admiral, Gms, Shaving Charges, Large Size Monthly 30 Gallon, Boot Tdk/Sony, Lipstick S.Miss/Medora, Hair Beauty Parlour Hair Style Polish Liquid (Cherry), Hand "Naunehal Digest", Removing Cream (Eu-Cream), Charges, Hair Colour Bigen, Stiching Needle, Washing Toothpast Med Size Colgate Toilet Soap Lux 95 Gms, Soap 250 Gm, Farshi Dari 70Gms, Disposable Razor Beauty Cream (Fair & 12'X9' Av.Qlty, Surf Excel Gillete-Ii, Trunk Medium Size, Lovely), Silver Tezabi 24 Ct, 400 Gms Poly Bag, Cleanser Toothpowder Dentonic 90 Wrist Watch Gents Citizen, Powder Vim 1000 Gms, DGms, Blade Treet Ordinary Wrist Watch Ladies Citizen, Freezer Waves 8 Cft., (10), Talc Powder Viceroy/ Toilet Soap Safeguard Bath Washing Machine (Singer), Black Cat, Wall Clock Quartz Size, Haircut Charges For Phnyle Typhone/Finis/Carr 3 Av.Qlty, Blade 7-O-Clock Men, Ltr, Washing Powder (Wheel/ Steel (5), Hair Oil Bonus), Airconditioner 1.5 Amla/Chambeli, Nail Polish Ton Pel, S.Miss/Medora, Perfume Med.Size Medora/Broche, Hair Colour (Kala Kola), Toothpaste Macleans 70 Gms, Face Cream Ponds (Medium), Kerosene Oil, Iron Bar (M.S. Bar) 1/2", Carpanter Wage Rate, Tea Set Pak. China Wear 21 Pcs, Dettol (Medium), Glycrine Small Bottle, X-Ray (Chest) Charges, Bus Fare Outside City (A/C), Petrol Super, High Speed Diesel Hsd, Car Suzuki 1000 Cc, Car Toyota 1300 Cc, T.C.S. Ch. Min.Within Zone, Telephone Set Av. Qlty, Cinema A/C High Class, Daily "Nawa-E-Waqt", Daily "Jang", Cinema Non-A/C High Class, Daily "Dawn", Weekly "Mag", Govt. University Fee Msc/ Ma, Govt. Engg. Coll. Fee Ist Year, Govt. College Fee Ist. Year, Pvt School Fee Eng.Med (Class-I), Pvt School Fee Eng.Med (Classs-V), Pvt School Fee Eng.Med (Class-Vi), Govt. College Fee 4Th. Cooked Mutton (Av. Hotel), Cooked Beef (Av. Year, Govt. Med. College Fee Mbbs Ist Year, Pvt Hotel), Med.College Fee Mbbs(Ist Year), Pvt School Fee Eng.Med (Class-X), Coaching Charges For Class Gold Tezabi 24 Ct,Group, Xi/ Xii Commerce 23
  28. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table A5: City- wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups, March, 2018 General MoM YoY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Rawalpindi Islamabad Lahore Gujranwala Sialkot Faisalabad Multan Sargodha Bahawalpur Karachi Hyderabad Sukkur Larkana Peshawar Bannu Quetta Khuzdar -0.2 0.6 1.1 -0.8 3.2 3.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9 2.9 4.5 -0.2 0.6 1.1 -0.8 3.2 3.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9 2.9 4.5 General MoM YoY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Rawalpindi Islamabad Lahore Gujranwala Sialkot Faisalabad Multan Sargodha Bahawalpur Karachi Hyderabad Sukkur Larkana Peshawar Bannu Quetta Khuzdar 0.3 1.9 2.1 -0.4 4.6 4.9 1.6 1.5 2.2 0.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.9 3.4 6.1 0.3 1.9 2.1 -0.4 4.6 4.9 1.6 1.5 2.2 0.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.9 3.4 6.1 General MoM YoY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 24 Rawalpindi Islamabad Lahore Gujranwala Sialkot Faisalabad Multan Sargodha Bahawalpur Karachi Hyderabad Sukkur Larkana Peshawar Bannu Quetta Khuzdar 2.1 4.0 5.0 0.6 5.7 7.5 3.1 3.3 5.0 2.7 4.1 2.9 3.2 4.4 2.7 4.5 7.7 2.1 4.0 5.0 0.6 5.7 7.5 3.1 3.3 5.0 2.7 4.1 2.9 3.2 4.4 2.7 4.5 7.7 Up to Rs: 8000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY -3.7 -2.4 -2.7 -3.2 -0.2 -2.8 -2.1 -0.9 -1.4 -1.9 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 -2.9 -1.5 0.7 1.3 -3.7 -2.4 -2.7 -3.2 -0.2 -2.8 -2.1 -0.9 -1.4 -1.9 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 -2.9 -1.5 0.7 1.3 4.0 4.1 6.6 2.0 7.6 11.3 4.3 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.6 1.3 2.2 4.1 3.7 5.4 8.3 4.0 4.1 6.6 2.0 7.6 11.3 4.3 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.6 1.3 2.2 4.1 3.7 5.4 8.3 Rs 12001-18000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY -3.3 -2.4 -2.5 -3.1 1.2 -2.1 -1.6 -0.2 -0.5 -1.5 -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 -2.6 -1.0 1.0 2.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.5 -3.1 1.2 -2.1 -1.6 -0.2 -0.5 -1.5 -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 -2.6 -1.0 1.0 2.2 3.7 6.0 7.3 2.4 8.1 11.8 4.6 3.0 4.5 2.7 4.6 3.5 3.7 4.7 4.6 5.7 10.0 3.7 6.0 7.3 2.4 8.1 11.8 4.6 3.0 4.5 2.7 4.6 3.5 3.7 4.7 4.6 5.7 10.0 Above Rs 35000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY -1.4 -0.2 -1.0 -2.2 2.4 0.9 0.0 0.9 3.5 0.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 -0.6 -0.6 2.5 4.6 -1.4 -0.2 -1.0 -2.2 2.4 0.9 0.0 0.9 3.5 0.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 -0.6 -0.6 2.5 4.6 3.7 6.2 8.5 2.0 7.4 11.0 4.6 4.4 5.6 4.0 5.5 3.4 3.7 6.8 4.3 5.4 9.3 3.7 6.2 8.5 2.0 7.4 11.0 4.6 4.4 5.6 4.0 5.5 3.4 3.7 6.8 4.3 5.4 9.3 General MoM YoY 0.1 1.8 1.7 -0.7 4.0 4.2 1.1 1.1 1.7 0.7 1.1 0.5 1.3 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.1 0.1 1.8 1.7 -0.7 4.0 4.2 1.1 1.1 1.7 0.7 1.1 0.5 1.3 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.1 General MoM YoY 0.8 2.1 3.1 -0.1 4.8 5.7 1.9 2.2 3.2 0.9 2.4 2.7 2.8 1.7 2.0 3.7 6.2 0.8 2.1 3.1 -0.1 4.8 5.7 1.9 2.2 3.2 0.9 2.4 2.7 2.8 1.7 2.0 3.7 6.2 General MoM YoY 1.5 3.8 3.7 -0.1 4.9 5.7 2.2 2.0 3.2 1.9 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.6 1.9 3.7 5.5 1.5 3.8 3.7 -0.1 4.9 5.7 2.2 2.0 3.2 1.9 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.6 1.9 3.7 5.5 Rs 8001- 12000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY -3.5 -2.6 -2.7 -3.3 0.6 -2.5 -1.9 -0.2 -0.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -2.5 -0.8 1.0 1.7 -3.5 -2.6 -2.7 -3.3 0.6 -2.5 -1.9 -0.2 -0.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -2.5 -0.8 1.0 1.7 3.8 6.5 7.1 2.1 7.8 11.5 4.3 2.3 4.0 2.9 3.5 2.0 3.0 3.9 3.8 5.2 8.8 3.8 6.5 7.1 2.1 7.8 11.5 4.3 2.3 4.0 2.9 3.5 2.0 3.0 3.9 3.8 5.2 8.8 Rs 18001-35000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY -3.1 -2.5 -2.4 -3.0 1.1 -1.7 -1.3 0.0 -0.3 -1.4 -0.1 0.2 0.8 -2.2 -1.1 1.2 2.0 -3.1 -2.5 -2.4 -3.0 1.1 -1.7 -1.3 0.0 -0.3 -1.4 -0.1 0.2 0.8 -2.2 -1.1 1.2 2.0 Combined Food MoM YoY -2.2 -0.6 -1.9 -2.9 1.4 -1.4 -1.0 0.0 0.4 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -2.0 -1.1 1.6 1.6 -2.2 -0.6 -1.9 -2.9 1.4 -1.4 -1.0 0.0 0.4 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -2.0 -1.1 1.6 1.6 3.9 5.9 8.4 2.4 7.9 12.1 4.5 3.8 5.8 2.9 4.8 4.7 4.2 4.9 4.6 5.8 9.8 3.9 5.9 8.4 2.4 7.9 12.1 4.5 3.8 5.8 2.9 4.8 4.7 4.2 4.9 4.6 5.8 9.8 Non-Food MoM YoY 4.0 7.0 8.4 1.9 7.5 10.7 4.4 3.3 4.8 3.8 4.6 3.1 3.1 5.7 3.8 5.2 8.2 4.0 7.0 8.4 1.9 7.5 10.7 4.4 3.3 4.8 3.8 4.6 3.1 3.1 5.7 3.8 5.2 8.2
  29. State Bank of Pakistan Table A6 : City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY) March, 2018 High inflation cities City Mithi Low inflation cities General Food Non-food 10.6 8.0 12.2 City Nawabshah General Food Non-food 3.1 4.0 2.6 Gawadar 6.4 2.4 9.0 Peshawar 2.6 -2.0 5.7 Faisalabad 5.7 -1.4 10.7 D. G. Khan 2.6 0.5 4.0 Khuzdar 5.5 1.6 8.2 Hyderabad 2.6 -0.1 4.6 Turbat 5.5 1.8 7.5 Mardan 2.3 0.5 3.4 Vehari 5.3 0.6 8.6 Sahiwal 2.3 -2.5 5.2 Sialkot 4.9 1.4 7.5 Multan 2.2 -1.0 4.4 D. I. Khan 4.9 2.6 6.4 Jhang 2.1 -2.8 5.2 Bahawalnagar 4.2 -0.3 7.1 Loralai 2.0 -1.3 4.1 Islamabad 3.8 -0.6 7.0 Sargodha 2.0 0.0 3.3 Quetta 3.7 1.6 5.2 Karachi 1.9 -0.7 3.8 Lahore 3.7 -1.9 8.4 R. Y. Khan 1.9 -3.5 5.6 D. M. Jamali 3.5 3.6 3.4 Larkana 1.9 0.0 3.1 Mianwali 3.5 -2.3 7.0 Bannu 1.9 -1.1 3.8 Bahawalpur 3.2 0.4 4.8 Sukkur 1.9 0.1 3.1 Mingora 1.8 -0.9 3.4 Rawalpindi 1.5 -2.2 4.0 Abbottabad 1.4 -1.0 2.9 Attock 1.4 -2.9 4.3 Dadu 1.4 -0.8 2.9 Jhelum 1.3 -3.0 4.4 Mirpukhas 0.8 -1.1 2.2 Gujranwala -0.1 -2.9 1.9 Wazirabad -0.4 -4.9 2.9 Muzaffargarh -0.4 -3.6 1.8 Note: High inflation refers to equal or above average inflation, and low inflation refers to below average 25
  30. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table A7: Income Group-wise Inflation ( percent) MoM Mar-17 Up to Rs. 8000 General Feb-18 YoY Mar-18 Mar-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 0.9 -0.7 -0.2 4.5 2.7 1.5 Food 1.7 -1.5 -0.7 4.2 1.3 -1.1 Non-food 0.1 0.2 0.4 4.8 4.3 4.6 General 0.9 -0.6 -0.1 4.5 2.9 1.9 Food 1.8 -1.3 -0.6 4.6 1.6 -0.7 Non-food 0.1 0.2 0.5 4.5 4.3 4.7 General 0.9 -0.5 0.1 4.8 3.1 2.2 Food 1.8 -1.3 -0.5 4.8 1.7 -0.6 Non-food 0.1 0.2 0.5 4.7 4.4 4.8 General 0.9 -0.4 0.2 4.9 3.4 2.6 Food 1.9 -1.1 -0.3 5.2 1.8 -0.3 Non-food 0.1 0.2 0.6 4.7 4.6 5.1 General 0.7 -0.1 0.5 5.1 4.5 4.3 Food 1.9 -0.9 0.0 5.4 3.1 1.1 Non-food 0.2 0.2 0.8 5.0 5.2 5.9 General 0.8 -0.3 0.3 4.9 3.8 3.2 Food 1.9 -1.1 -0.3 5.0 2.2 0.1 Non-food 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.9 4.9 5.4 Rs. 8001- 12000 Rs. 12001- 18000 Rs. 18001- 35000 Above Rs. 35000 All income groups 26
  31. State Bank of Pakistan Table A8 : SPI Item-wise Price Movements Sr.No. Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Wheat Wheat Flour Bag Rice Basmati Broken Rice Irri-6/9 Bread Plain Med.Size (340-400 Gm.) Beef Mutton Chicken Live (Farm) Milk Fresh Curd Milk Powdered Nido Egg Hen (Farm) Mustard Oil Cooking Oil (Tin) Veg. Ghee (Tin) Veg.Ghee Loose Bananas Masoor Pulse Washed Moong Pulse Washed Mash Pulse Washed Gram Pulse Washed Potatoes Onions Tomatoes Sugar Gur Salt Powdered Loose (Lahori) Red Chillies Powder Loose Garlic Tea (Yellow Lable 200 Gm.) Cooked Beef Plate Cooked Dal Plate Tea Prepared (Sada) Cigarettes K-2 (20'S) Long Cloth (Coarse Latha) Shirting Lawn Georgette (Voil Printed) Sandal Gents Bata Chappal Spng.Bata (Gents) Sandal Ladies Bata Electric Charges 1-50 Gas Charges Upto 3.3719 Kerosene Firewood Energy Savor 14 Watt Washing Soap (200-250 Gm.) Match Box Petrol Diesel L.P.G.( 11 Kg Cylender.) Tele. Local Call Bath Soap Lifebouy (Standard) Maximum Median Minimum Unit 10Kg. 10Kg. Kg. Kg. Each Kg. Kg. Kg. Litr Kg. 500G Doz. Kg. 2.5Ltr 2.5Kg. Kg. Doz. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. 200Gm. Each Each Cup 20'S Mtr. Mtr. Mtr. Mtr. Pair Pair Pair Unit Mmbtu Litr 40Kg Each Cake Each Litr Litr Each Call Cake Prices Mar-18 341.9 384.2 73.9 52.0 42.6 350.4 744.9 168.9 82.5 99.1 384.3 94.7 183.6 471.0 464.4 145.7 81.1 115.4 116.2 151.2 114.8 24.0 33.1 31.8 51.3 76.3 11.1 260.2 174.5 193.3 103.9 58.3 21.2 50.8 214.0 171.1 258.8 128.3 699.0 179.1 502.4 2.0 128.7 115.1 633.0 170.2 26.2 2.3 89.0 99.4 1190.0 3.9 39.4 Percentage change YoY MoM -2.2 -0.7 13.4 5.3 3.5 5.6 10.8 -2.2 2.1 4.6 2.8 5.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 -1.5 -11.3 -10.7 -19.9 -11.7 -16.6 -1.2 -60.6 -15.0 -9.4 3.8 -2.4 -41.9 -1.3 11.4 2.4 2.9 -24.5 4.1 4.1 3.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.9 3.9 1.4 0.9 3.7 20.5 19.8 6.4 0.0 1.2 45.9 0.1 -0.5 0.6 -0.5 0.0 0.6 0.7 2.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 -6.2 -0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 5.0 -2.4 -1.6 -2.4 -2.0 -11.2 -23.1 -13.4 -0.3 -2.8 0.0 1.0 1.4 5.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 4.1 2.7 -9.1 0.0 -0.6 5.5 1.1 0.0 -60.6 -23.1 27
  32. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table A9: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: March, 2018 Metal Product Machinery & Equipment Other Transportable Goods Ores & Minerals, Food Products, Beverages and Tobacco, Agriculture Forestry except Metal Products, Electricity Gas & Textiles, Apparel and Leather Products & Fishery Products Machinery and Equipments Water Groups 28 Decrease or no change Subdued increase (Greater Moderate increase Double digit increase than 0% but less than 5%) (5% but less than 10%) (10% or more) Edible Roots/Potatos, Vegetables, Pulses, Cotton Seeds, Hides And Fur Skins,Raw, Sugar Crops, Wheat, Other Oil Seeds, Raw Animal Material/Wool, Milk From Bovine Animals, Fish Live Fresh Or Chilled, Sorghum/Jowar, Fuel Wood In Logs, Poultry, Rice, Fresh Fruits, Maize, Fibre Crops, Stimulant And Spice Crops, Eggs, Millet/Bajra, Dry Fruits, Unmanufactured Tobacco, Electrical Energy, Coal Not Aggiomerated, Natural Gas Liquified, Tobbaco Products, Other Cereal Flour, Sugar Refined, Leather With Out Hairs, Wheat Flour, Sugar Confectionary, Other Leather N.E.C, Nylon Yarn, Woolen Carpets, Footwears, Chocolate, Towels, Synthetic Carpets, Blended Yarn, Woven Fabrics, Ready Made Garments, Milk And Cream In Solid Form, Cotton Fabrics, Fruit Juices, Other Fabrics, Vegetable Oil Refined, Hosiery Products, Silk And Reyon Fabrics, Vegetables & Fruit Juices, Vegetable Ghee, Beverages, Bed Sheets, Other Food Products, Oil Cakes, Cement, Insecticised, Coke, Dying Materials, Timber, Fertilizers, Matches, Paints & Varnishes, Mobil Oil, Hard Board, Pesticides, Printing Paper, Other Glass Articles, Bed Foams, Medicines, Glass Sheets, Bricks Blocks And Tiles, Ceramics And Sanitery, Soaps & Detergent, Plastic Products, Auto Tyres, Kerosine Oil, Diesel Oil, Motor Sprit, Furnace Oil, Chemicals, Steel Products, Engines And Motors, Vacuum Pumps, Bicycles, Pig Iron, Concrate Mixer, Radio And Television, Tractors, Cultivators, Lathe Machines, Chuff Cutter, Air Conditioners, Refrige,Wash& Sew Mach,Iron,Fan, Electrical Wires, Lighting Equipments, Pipe Fittings, Motor Cycles, Motor Vehicales, Steel Bars & Sheets, Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride, Processed Liquid Milk, Quilts, Ice Cream, Cotton Yarn, Dairy Products N.E.C, Blankets, Mineral Water, Spices, Coffee And Tea, Meat Of Animals, Dried Fruits & Nuts,
  33. State Bank of Pakistan Table A10 : Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Items and specification General Food & Non-Alcohalic Beverages. Wheat 1 Wheat Flour 2 Wheat Product 3 Besan 4 Rice 5 Cereals 6 Bakery & Confectionary 7 Nimco 8 Meat 9 Chicken 10 Fish 11 Milk Fresh 12 Milk Product 13 Milk Powder 14 Eggs 15 Mustard Oil 16 Cooking Oil 17 Vegetable Ghee 18 Dry Fruits 19 Fresh Fruits 20 Pulse Masoor 21 Pulse Moong 22 Pulse Mash (Washed) 23 Pulse Gram 24 Gram Whole 25 Beans 26 Potatoes 27 Onion 28 Tomatoes 29 Fresh Vegetables 30 Sugar 31 Gur 32 Honey 33 Sweet Meet 34 Beverages 35 Jam, Tomato Ketchup & Pickle 36 Condiments 37 Spices 38 Tea 39 Alcohalic Beverages, Tobacco Cigarettes 40 Betel Leaves & Nuts 41 Clothing & Footwear Cotton Cloth 42 Woolen Cloth 43 Ready Made Garments 44 Woolen Readymade Garments 45 Hosiery 46 Dopatta 47 Cleaning & Laundering 48 Weights 100.00 34.83 0.35 4.16 0.10 0.15 1.58 0.16 1.16 0.46 2.43 1.36 0.30 6.68 0.63 0.11 0.46 0.10 1.75 2.07 0.25 1.86 0.27 0.23 0.21 0.24 0.16 0.03 0.46 0.52 0.43 1.71 1.04 0.02 0.04 0.25 1.20 0.25 0.27 0.54 0.84 1.41 1.39 0.02 7.57 1.73 0.88 0.97 0.40 0.51 0.44 0.21 Mar-17 Index Feb-18 Mar-18 213.32 226.16 208.99 213.15 216.57 296.24 169.87 253.81 217.20 250.97 270.81 201.47 218.06 269.32 258.90 234.74 180.60 157.82 136.67 142.06 263.92 253.63 184.74 247.04 279.33 294.15 283.59 229.58 188.01 204.99 213.35 225.89 216.84 260.80 323.63 247.44 219.43 217.05 266.36 237.90 283.96 380.92 383.20 242.66 234.46 226.99 254.82 240.15 260.01 246.06 243.87 261.93 219.58 229.23 205.66 212.84 214.30 271.63 191.61 259.02 224.55 257.41 290.84 199.06 221.93 279.48 271.59 238.41 213.54 162.81 138.56 143.55 278.60 249.68 161.17 220.84 221.64 264.85 287.97 243.43 175.00 252.59 121.90 218.60 186.44 245.06 341.03 256.66 226.80 224.88 277.53 239.80 287.65 313.39 306.13 754.58 245.03 236.48 263.65 254.72 266.71 258.30 254.12 284.23 220.25 228.39 204.63 211.52 214.16 267.57 192.45 259.04 224.66 258.14 293.53 207.80 224.31 279.50 272.17 239.08 198.03 162.97 139.23 143.79 279.84 266.29 160.02 218.82 217.65 259.27 280.90 245.21 160.07 204.19 97.45 202.58 184.51 238.44 341.03 257.09 227.38 225.48 278.51 239.75 296.63 316.60 306.62 922.46 245.80 238.01 264.09 256.20 266.38 259.22 255.58 284.44 29
  34. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table A10: Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Index Items and specification Tailoring 49 Footware 50 Housing,Water,Elect,Gas & Other Fuel 51 House Rent 52 Construction Input Item 53 Construction Wage Rate 54 Water Supply 55 Electricity 56 Gas 57 Kerosene Oil 58 Fire Wood Whole Furnished H.Hold Equip.& Maint. Etc 59 Furniture 60 Household Textile 61 Household Equipment 62 Utensils 63 Plastic Products 64 Washing Soap & Detergent 65 Sewing Needle & Dry Cell 66 Household Servant 67 Marriage Hall Charges Health 68 Drug Medicine 69 Medical Equipment 70 Doctor (MBBS) Clinic Fee 71 Medical Test Transport 72 Motor Vehicle 73 Motor Vehicle Accessories 74 Motor Fuel 75 Mechanical Service 76 Motor Vehicle Tax 77 Transport Services Communication 78 Postal Services 79 Communication & Apparatus Recreation & Culture 80 Recreation & Culture 81 Text Books 82 News Papers 83 Stationery Education 84 Education Restaurants And Hotels 85 Ready Made Food Miscellaneous Goods And Services 86 Personal Care 87 Cosmetics 88 Blades 89 Personal Equipments 30 Weights 0.88 1.55 29.41 21.81 0.56 0.33 0.50 4.40 1.58 0.01 0.23 4.21 0.33 0.65 0.59 0.32 0.25 0.79 0.15 1.04 0.08 2.19 1.27 0.01 0.59 0.32 7.20 0.66 0.24 3.03 0.46 0.11 2.70 3.22 0.07 3.15 2.02 0.86 0.57 0.19 0.40 3.94 3.94 1.23 1.23 2.76 1.49 0.39 0.03 0.84 Feb-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 311.57 166.99 194.44 185.86 250.25 235.79 164.74 238.10 158.08 198.79 290.59 224.59 216.92 226.73 180.25 229.10 209.59 230.42 205.59 249.98 245.66 211.21 184.27 251.01 277.47 194.69 175.69 172.91 213.27 148.11 229.92 210.18 193.34 132.69 246.14 130.31 197.14 129.62 292.41 180.53 215.22 233.98 233.98 271.02 271.02 242.19 224.06 203.77 195.52 293.59 336.77 167.82 202.62 195.96 261.97 255.15 173.82 238.10 158.08 246.23 301.93 233.50 227.53 235.96 184.74 242.26 218.40 235.23 210.07 262.86 257.76 220.58 187.75 256.26 298.32 206.26 184.47 180.19 215.18 163.92 237.06 210.18 195.86 133.28 255.80 130.71 198.62 131.62 287.98 186.23 222.00 262.35 262.35 287.21 287.21 255.21 233.45 206.60 201.62 317.95 336.91 167.95 202.71 195.96 264.40 257.14 174.83 238.10 158.08 259.58 302.24 234.67 228.22 236.78 185.70 242.89 218.99 235.67 211.92 265.40 257.76 221.26 187.99 256.26 300.06 206.75 186.98 185.84 216.02 167.63 238.14 210.18 196.76 133.37 259.00 130.73 200.38 132.03 287.98 202.81 222.02 275.17 275.17 287.84 287.84 256.35 234.18 208.65 201.85 319.45
  35. State Bank of Pakistan Table A11 : Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Index Items and Specifications General Agriculture Forestry & Fishery 1 Wheat 2 Maize 3 Rice 4 Sorghum/Jowar 5 Millet/Bajra 6 Vegetables 7 Fresh Fruits 8 Dry Fruits 9 Cotton Seeds 10 Other Oil Seeds 11 Edible Roots/ Potatoes 12 Stimulant And Spice Crops 13 Pulses 14 Sugar Crops 15 Fibre Crops 16 Unmanufactured Tobacco 17 Poultry 18 Milk From Bovine Animals 19 Eggs 20 Raw Animal Material/Wool 21 Hides And Fur Skins, Raw 22 Fuel Wood In Logs 23 Fishes Live Fresh Or Chilled Ores/Minerals, Gas & Elect. 24 Coal Not Agglomerated 25 Natural Gas Liquefied 26 Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride 27 Electrical Energy Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textiles 28 Meat Of Animals 29 Vegetables & Fruit Juices 30 Dried Fruits & Nuts 31 Fruit Juices 32 Vegetable Oil Refined 33 Vegetable Ghee 34 Oil Cakes 35 Processed Liquid Milk 36 Milk And Cream In Solid Form 37 Ice Cream 38 Dairy Products N.E.C 39 Wheat Flour 40 Other Cereal Flour 41 Sugar Refined 42 Chocolate 43 Sugar Confectionary 44 Coffee And Tea 45 Spices 46 Other Food Products 47 Mineral Water 48 Beverages 49 Tobacco Products 50 Cotton Yarn 51 Nylon Yarn 52 Blended Yarn 53 Woven Fabrics 54 Cotton Fabrics 55 Other Fabrics Mar-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 217.29 247.41 215.36 188.80 158.39 252.72 166.48 228.79 266.14 237.76 273.72 181.57 193.76 218.25 262.14 268.94 219.67 277.89 217.22 266.07 173.47 177.63 106.49 279.63 466.06 242.56 155.29 210.52 240.26 288.00 227.09 283.49 223.21 264.08 179.97 154.86 126.57 226.58 262.24 218.15 245.21 254.42 197.79 250.54 223.81 100.00 128.44 254.52 190.42 293.85 198.57 172.33 445.85 203.06 143.99 182.33 310.72 209.30 224.40 224.66 252.97 210.64 199.27 174.06 242.65 183.60 219.44 265.01 267.56 256.23 187.75 167.22 269.38 249.60 257.62 226.99 305.98 211.05 275.47 212.43 173.81 105.02 283.56 477.80 243.39 155.29 212.02 264.37 288.00 231.40 311.27 224.97 297.11 182.60 156.36 126.69 231.54 286.83 223.55 266.02 267.61 195.72 218.04 189.16 100.00 127.85 261.80 202.23 294.50 208.14 172.85 318.37 227.49 143.99 188.55 321.49 213.18 227.16 225.22 254.55 209.00 205.11 173.85 256.85 188.77 195.23 291.61 269.25 257.18 177.04 148.10 266.39 240.45 257.62 234.67 308.03 219.05 275.47 201.84 173.81 101.97 283.56 476.70 242.92 155.29 211.00 266.38 288.00 231.06 314.84 224.97 291.20 183.21 156.57 127.28 226.67 288.23 223.34 266.02 272.54 194.41 210.20 189.93 100.00 127.85 267.98 202.23 294.50 211.50 173.00 318.37 218.16 143.99 189.19 321.49 214.23 227.16 31
  36. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table A11: Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Index Items and Specifications 56 Silk And Rayon Fabrics 57 Towels 58 Blankets 59 Bed Sheets 60 Quilts 61 Woolen Carpets 62 Synthetic Carpets 63 Hosiery Products 64 Ready Made Garments 65 Leather With Out Hairs 66 Other Leather N.E.C 67 Footwear’s Other Transportable Goods 68 Timber 69 Printing Paper 70 Hard Board 71 Coke 72 Motor Sprit 73 Diesel Oil 74 Kerosene Oil 75 Furnace Oil 76 Mobil Oil 77 Chemicals 78 Dying Materials 79 Fertilizers 80 Pesticides 81 Insecticides 82 Paints & Varnishes 83 Medicines 84 Soaps & Detergent 85 Auto Tyres 86 Plastic Products 87 Glass Sheets 88 Other Glass Articles 89 Ceramics And Sanitary 90 Bricks Blocks And Tiles 91 Cement 92 Bed Foams 93 Matches Metal Product Machinery & Equip 94 Pig Iron 95 Steel Bars & Sheets 96 Pipe Fittings 97 Steel Products 98 Engines And Motors 99 Vacuum Pumps 100 Air Conditioners 101 Cultivators 102 Chuff Cutter 103 Tractors 104 Lathe Machines 105 Concrete Mixer 106 Refrige,Wash& Sew Mach, Iron,Fan 107 Electrical Wires 108 Lighting Equipments 109 Radio And Television 110 Motor Vehicles 111 Motor Cycles 112 Bicycles 32 Feb-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 186.55 276.14 247.52 256.07 203.79 196.43 130.95 241.83 196.08 221.97 207.31 145.51 171.65 226.13 165.63 220.83 163.45 123.29 155.81 117.12 104.67 196.91 170.99 146.55 216.49 304.43 143.92 294.51 174.85 191.21 177.07 225.88 298.97 312.91 233.92 220.98 216.71 170.83 165.53 175.44 128.97 133.96 215.29 177.48 116.98 123.69 200.10 190.66 153.46 201.75 241.06 138.83 208.84 204.51 170.73 140.42 191.39 125.89 187.65 188.14 276.14 265.03 256.87 222.32 196.43 130.95 244.11 201.37 212.68 207.02 145.51 190.61 237.00 168.59 225.00 163.45 142.75 201.27 187.24 130.29 200.85 188.23 146.55 225.55 310.16 140.56 301.12 177.01 191.35 177.07 226.00 302.27 318.10 234.76 223.59 209.70 173.00 171.36 178.47 128.97 144.61 215.66 176.70 116.98 123.69 200.10 190.66 153.46 201.75 241.06 138.83 217.87 205.92 171.39 140.42 195.36 126.05 187.65 188.14 276.14 265.03 256.87 222.32 196.43 130.95 244.42 201.37 212.68 207.02 145.51 191.75 237.00 168.59 225.00 163.45 148.77 205.65 203.79 125.91 200.85 188.57 146.55 226.19 310.16 140.61 301.12 177.01 191.35 177.11 226.00 302.27 318.10 234.76 223.30 210.55 173.00 171.36 179.07 128.97 147.50 215.66 176.70 116.98 123.69 200.10 190.66 153.46 201.75 241.06 138.83 218.55 205.92 171.39 140.42 211.00 126.05 187.65
  37. State Bank of Pakistan Table A12 : Price Indices - Base 2007-08 = 100 Period Overall 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 CPI Food Non-food Overall WPI Food SPI * Non-Food 117.03 128.85 146.45 162.57 174.53 189.58 198.16 203.82 212.29 123.11 139.05 164.10 182.20 195.18 212.74 220.20 224.78 233.37 113.37 122.73 135.87 150.80 162.16 175.69 184.95 191.25 199.65 118.93 135.40 164.17 181.28 194.61 210.48 209.85 207.64 216.02 119.68 136.85 159.26 181.32 197.21 213.04 226.22 234.69 248.74 118.45 134.48 167.27 181.26 192.95 208.85 199.47 190.47 195.27 123.26 139.84 164.02 178.67 189.64 208.66 212.61 216.23 220.10 2015 Nov Dec 204.22 203.06 227.55 223.90 190.23 190.57 208.72 207.37 232.83 230.72 193.43 192.55 219.37 218.60 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 203.49 202.98 203.28 206.43 205.99 207.30 210.08 209.46 209.88 211.57 212.01 210.57 222.58 221.07 222.25 227.53 225.84 228.95 234.69 232.48 232.80 234.68 235.17 230.69 192.05 192.14 191.91 193.78 194.09 194.32 195.33 195.66 196.14 197.72 198.13 198.51 206.27 205.05 204.22 206.87 208.01 210.88 215.81 215.75 214.61 214.53 214.07 213.76 231.14 231.26 231.43 237.05 238.62 244.68 251.76 250.12 250.41 250.63 247.89 244.40 190.48 188.42 186.95 187.72 188.59 189.44 192.99 193.95 191.89 191.64 192.62 194.32 217.47 215.73 215.13 215.88 214.35 216.58 218.81 218.66 218.67 220.11 220.68 219.73 2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 210.94 211.54 213.32 216.30 216.33 215.45 216.19 216.61 217.98 219.61 220.42 220.20 228.45 229.19 233.47 237.50 237.01 234.37 234.47 235.38 238.43 239.89 240.79 239.43 200.44 200.96 201.24 203.59 203.94 204.11 205.23 205.36 205.72 207.45 208.21 208.67 214.84 215.86 217.29 219.22 218.78 217.77 217.24 217.96 218.08 219.41 220.20 221.00 244.73 244.91 247.53 252.45 251.10 248.90 249.95 251.05 252.27 254.40 252.83 253.31 195.87 197.42 198.10 198.13 198.26 198.02 196.63 196.96 196.39 197.22 199.49 200.49 218.35 219.25 223.62 222.07 220.51 220.68 219.28 219.82 223.38 225.15 226.29 225.66 Jan 220.27 236.92 210.29 224.99 252.74 207.38 224.13 Feb Mar 219.58 220.25 234.31 233.67 210.75 212.21 224.66 225.22 250.56 251.00 208.23 208.52 222.19 221.67 2018 *: all groups combined Table A13: International Commodity Prices/ Indices 33
  38. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table A13: International Commodity Prices/Indices Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 61.2 66.2 63.5 64.2 77.8 85.0 80.5 81.0 Rice ($/MT) 406.0 442.0 425.0 430.0 Wheat ($/MT) 184.1 192.2 192.2 192.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Palm Oil ($/MT) 672.0 677.0 663.0 681.0 Soybean Oil ($/MT) 866.0 864.0 842.0 834.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 92.2 97.0 96.9 92.9 Copper ($/MT) 6,833.9 7,065.9 7,006.5 6,799.2 Aluminum ($/MT) 2,080.5 2,209.7 2,181.8 2,069.2 72.3 76.3 77.5 70.4 Tin ($/MT) 19,476.4 20,696.9 21,651.6 21,211.9 Nickel ($/MT) 11,495.1 12,864.9 13,595.9 13,392.5 Zinc ($/MT) 3,196.0 3,441.5 3,532.9 3,269.2 Lead ($/MT) 2,509.9 2,584.1 2,581.1 2,390.0 22.3 21.9 21.4 21.1 385.0 395.0 404.0 412.0 Energy Crude Oil (US$ per barrel) * Energy Index (2010 = 100) Food Sugar (US cent/ pound)^ Non-Food Non-Energy Cotton Outlook 'A' Index #^ Metal Price Index (2010 = 100) Iron Ore ($ cents/dry MT) Uranium ($/MT)@ DAP ($/MT) Urea ($/MT) 219.0 224.0 229.0 232.0 Source: World Bank for all variables / indices except Uranium which is taken from Cameco (World Largest Uranium Producer) @ Data has been taken from Cameco website as it is not available in World Bank dataset. ^ The measurement unit for sugar and Cotton is US cent/ pound in IMF data source, whereas it is US dollar / kg in World bank dataset. The result of two datasets can be reconciled using conversion formula: 1US $ / $/MT = US$ per metricU.S. tonne. kilogram = 45.359237 cents / pound * Crude Oil (Petroleum), simple average of three spot prices; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai fateh # Middling 1-3/32 inch staple, liverpool Index "A", average of the cheapest Cts/lb five of fourteen styles, CIF Liverpool (Cotton Outlook, Liverpool). From January 1968 to May 1981 strict middling 1-1/16 inch staple. Prior to 1968, Mexican 1-1/16.2/ DAP: Diammonium Phosphate 34
  39. State Bank of Pakistan Table 14 : CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 183.58 198.05 201.76 210.08 216.19 Aug 185.71 198.70 202.25 209.46 216.61 Sep 185.18 199.40 202.04 209.88 217.98 Oct 188.82 199.81 203.03 211.57 219.61 Nov 191.21 198.79 204.22 212.01 220.42 Dec 188.68 196.79 203.06 210.57 220.20 Jan 189.60 196.95 203.49 210.94 220.27 Feb 189.00 195.13 202.98 211.54 219.58 Mar 190.82 195.57 203.28 213.32 220.25 Apr 194.06 198.16 206.43 216.30 May 193.55 199.66 205.99 216.33 Jun 194.74 200.89 207.30 215.45 Seasonally Adjusted Series Jul 182.74 197.10 200.79 209.05 215.15 Aug 184.46 197.45 201.06 208.27 215.46 Sep 184.03 198.20 200.90 208.77 216.91 Oct 187.34 198.28 201.52 210.05 218.06 Nov 190.03 197.61 203.04 210.79 219.16 Dec 189.59 197.66 203.87 211.32 220.92 Jan 190.23 197.63 204.23 211.76 221.19 Feb 190.96 197.15 205.06 213.68 221.77 Mar 192.46 197.28 205.09 215.23 222.22 Apr 193.90 197.97 206.21 216.03 May 193.96 200.01 206.29 216.61 Jun 195.34 201.43 207.78 215.88 35
  40. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table 15: CPI Food Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 208.19 222.80 224.14 234.69 234.47 Aug 212.27 224.05 224.86 232.48 235.38 Sep 209.09 224.12 223.87 232.80 238.43 Oct 212.61 223.74 224.86 234.68 239.89 Nov 218.16 222.74 227.55 235.17 240.79 Dec 210.89 218.08 223.90 230.69 239.43 Jan 210.81 217.10 222.58 228.45 236.92 Feb 208.74 213.15 221.07 229.19 234.31 Mar 213.11 214.25 222.25 233.47 233.67 Apr 217.33 217.26 227.53 237.50 May 214.75 221.22 225.84 237.01 Jun 216.98 223.84 228.95 234.37 Seasonally Adjusted Series 36 Jul 206.59 220.99 222.27 232.71 232.50 Aug 209.32 221.12 222.07 229.69 232.69 Sep 206.23 221.10 220.96 229.93 235.64 Oct 209.33 220.40 221.62 231.46 236.67 Nov 214.83 219.43 224.29 231.82 237.36 Dec 212.31 219.34 224.95 231.54 240.17 Jan 212.57 219.03 224.70 230.82 239.54 Feb 213.41 217.93 225.98 234.23 239.42 Mar 216.33 217.58 225.75 237.15 237.37 Apr 217.78 217.68 227.93 237.82 May 216.05 222.39 226.92 238.05 Jun 218.36 225.04 229.98 235.25
  41. State Bank of Pakistan Table 16 : CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 100.46 100.48 100.48 100.49 100.49 Average 100.48 Aug 100.68 100.63 100.59 100.57 100.53 100.60 Sep 100.62 100.60 100.57 100.53 100.49 100.56 Oct 100.79 100.77 100.75 100.73 100.71 100.75 Nov 100.62 100.60 100.58 100.58 100.58 100.59 Dec 99.52 99.56 99.60 99.65 99.68 99.60 Jan 99.67 99.66 99.64 99.61 99.59 99.63 Feb 98.98 98.98 98.99 99.00 99.01 98.99 Mar 99.15 99.13 99.12 99.11 99.12 99.13 Apr 100.08 100.10 100.11 100.13 100.10 May 99.79 99.82 99.85 99.87 99.83 Jun 99.69 99.73 99.77 99.80 99.75 Table 17: CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 100.77 100.82 100.84 100.85 100.85 Average 100.83 Aug 101.41 101.33 101.26 101.22 101.16 101.27 Sep 101.39 101.37 101.32 101.25 101.18 101.30 Oct 101.57 101.51 101.46 101.39 101.36 101.46 Nov 101.55 101.51 101.46 101.44 101.45 101.48 Dec 99.33 99.43 99.53 99.63 99.69 99.52 Jan 99.17 99.12 99.06 98.97 98.91 99.05 Feb 97.81 97.81 97.83 97.85 97.86 97.83 Mar 98.51 98.47 98.45 98.45 98.44 98.47 Apr 99.80 99.81 99.82 99.87 99.82 May 99.40 99.48 99.53 99.56 99.49 Jun 99.37 99.47 99.55 99.63 99.50 37
  42. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Table 18: CPI Month-on-Month % Change Original & Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 2.02 1.70 0.43 1.34 0.34 Aug 1.16 0.33 0.24 -0.30 0.19 Sep -0.29 0.35 -0.10 0.20 0.63 Oct 1.97 0.21 0.49 0.81 0.75 Nov 1.27 -0.51 0.59 0.21 0.37 Dec -1.32 -1.01 -0.57 -0.68 -0.10 Jan 0.49 0.08 0.21 0.18 0.03 Feb -0.32 -0.92 -0.25 0.28 -0.31 Mar 0.96 0.23 0.15 0.84 0.31 Apr 1.70 1.32 1.55 1.40 May -0.26 0.76 -0.21 0.01 Jun 0.61 0.62 0.64 -0.41 Jul 1.21 0.90 -0.32 0.61 -0.34 Aug 0.94 0.18 0.14 -0.37 0.15 Sep -0.23 0.38 -0.08 0.24 0.67 Oct 1.79 0.04 0.31 0.61 0.53 Nov 1.44 -0.34 0.75 0.35 0.50 Dec -0.23 0.03 0.41 0.25 0.80 Jan 0.33 -0.02 0.18 0.21 0.12 Seasonally Adjusted Series 38 Feb 0.38 -0.24 0.40 0.91 0.26 Mar 0.79 0.07 0.02 0.73 0.20 Apr 0.75 0.35 0.55 0.37 May 0.04 1.03 0.04 0.27 Jun 0.71 0.71 0.72 -0.34
  43. State Bank of Pakistan Table 19 : CPI Food Month-on-Month % Change Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series Original Series Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 3.01 2.68 0.13 2.50 0.04 Aug 1.96 0.56 0.32 -0.94 0.39 Sep -1.50 0.03 -0.44 0.14 1.29 Oct 1.68 -0.17 0.44 0.81 0.61 Nov 2.61 -0.45 1.20 0.21 0.37 Dec -3.33 -2.09 -1.61 -1.90 -0.56 Jan -0.04 -0.45 -0.59 -0.97 -1.05 -1.11 -0.27 Feb -0.98 -1.82 -0.68 0.32 Mar 2.10 0.52 0.54 1.87 Apr 1.98 1.41 2.38 1.73 May -1.19 1.82 -0.74 -0.21 Jun 1.04 1.18 1.38 -1.11 Jul 1.48 1.20 -1.23 1.19 -1.17 Aug 1.32 0.06 -0.09 -1.30 0.08 Sep -1.48 -0.01 -0.50 0.11 1.27 Oct 1.51 -0.31 0.30 0.67 0.44 Nov 2.63 -0.44 1.20 0.16 0.29 Dec -1.18 -0.04 0.30 -0.12 1.18 Jan 0.12 -0.14 -0.11 -0.31 -0.26 Feb 0.39 -0.50 0.57 1.48 -0.05 Mar 1.37 -0.16 -0.10 1.24 -0.86 Seasonally Adjusted Series Apr 0.67 0.05 0.96 0.28 May -0.79 2.16 -0.45 0.10 Jun 1.07 1.19 1.35 -1.18 39
  44. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Figure A1: CPI Non-food Inflation (percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -10 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 10 20 10 5 0 -5 10 5 0 -5 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc 20 Health 15 10 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Transport Communication 20 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Jan-18 Mar-18 Nov-17 -10 Jul-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Nov-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 May-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Nov-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Mar-16 May-16 -10 -5 Sep-17 -5 0 May-17 0 10 5 Jan-17 5 Education Mar-17 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Nov-16 10 -10 Jul-16 -15 Sep-16 Recreation & Culture 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -10 Mar-16 -15 May-16 -10 40 10 15 15
  45. State Bank of Pakistan Figure A2 : Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items, March 2018 Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) YoY price changes 100 160 140 80 120 100 60 100 80 120 100 60 80 80 40 60 40 60 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 160 100 160 12-month ma food price changes 140 80 120 100 60 80 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 20 140 12-month ma price changes 140 100 12-month ma non-food price changes 80 120 100 60 80 40 60 40 20 40 60 40 20 20 20 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent 0 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 160 Price intervals in percent 41
  46. 50 Price intervals in percent 42 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 50 YoY price changes 100 12-month ma food price changes 100 40 80 40 80 30 60 30 60 20 40 20 40 10 20 10 20 0 0 0 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 Inflation Monitor, March 2018 Figure A3: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities, March 2018 Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 50 12-month ma price changes 100 40 80 40 80 30 60 30 60 20 40 20 40 10 20 10 20 0 0 0 0 50 12-month ma non-food price changes 100 Price intervals in percent
  47. State Bank of Pakistan `Figure A4: Group- wise/ Overall Inflation Diffusion Index (IDI) and respective/ overall YoY Inflation (percent) FNAB-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) FNAB Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 FHE-IDI (LHS) FHE Inflation- YoY 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Group [1.41%] ABT-IDI (LHS) ABT Inflation- YoY H-IDI (LHS) H Inflation- YoY Clothing & Footwear Group [7.57%] Edu-IDI (LHS) Edu Inflation- YoY Housing, Water, Elect. Gas Group [29.41%] Com-IDI (LHS) Com Inflation- YoY 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 RH-IDI (LHS) RH Inflation- YoY 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Communication Group [3.22%] Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Miscellaneous Group [2.76%] Misc-IDI (LHS) Misc Inflation- YoY Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Restaurant & Hotels Group [1.23%] Transport Group [7.20%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Education Group [3.94%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 T-IDI (LHS) T Inflation- YoY Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 HWEG-IDI (LHS) HWEG Inflation- YoY RC-IDI (LHS) RC Inflation- YoY 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Health Group [2.19%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 CF- IDI (LHS) CF Inflation- YoY Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Recreation & Culture Group [2.02%] Furnishing & Household Equip. Group [4.21%] Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Group [34.83%] Numbers in square brackets show the weights of respective groups in the CPI baskets. 43
  48. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 Annexure B Technical Notes 1. All the three measures of inflation, viz. CPI, WPI and SPI are computed by the following Laspeyres Index formula:  Pt j  I t   w  j  j  P0  j 0 Where It is price index, w0j is weight of commodity j in the overall basket, Pt j is price of commodity j in period t and P0 j is its price in the base year. 2. Base year for all the indices is the year 2007-08. 3. CPI basket contains 487 consumers’ goods; WPI basket contains 463 items; SPI contains 53 items. 4. YoY inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the same month of the last year. It is computed as follows: t  ( It I t 12  1)  100 5. Period average inflation is the percent change of the average index during the period from July to the given month of a fiscal year over the average index during the corresponding period of the last year. It is computed as follows:  t     I t i  i 0   t  t 12   1  100     I t 12 i   i 0  Where v is the serial number of the month of July of current fiscal year in a given time series. 6. Monthly inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the preceding month. It is computed as follows: 44
  49. State Bank of Pakistan t  ( It  1)  100 I t 1 7. 12-month moving average inflation (Long-run trend inflation) is the percent change of 12-month moving average of a price index; it is computed as follows:  11    I t i  i 0  ~  t  11  1  100     I t 12 i   i 0  8. Core Inflation is defined as the persistent component of measured inflation that excludes volatile and controlled prices. It reflects the normal supply and demand conditions in the economy. Core inflation is computed by the following three methods: a) Non-food, Non-energy inflation (NFNE inflation); it is computed by excluding food group and energy items (kerosene oil, petrol, diesel, CNG, electricity and natural gas) from the CPI basket. b) 20% trimmed-mean inflation; it is computed through the following steps: i. All CPI items are arranged in ascending order according to YoY/12-month moving average/monthly/period average changes in their price indices in a given month. ii. 20 percent of the items showing extreme changes are excluded with 10 percent of the items at the top of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 90% or more) and 10 percent of the items at the bottom of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 10 percent or less). iii. The weighted mean of the changes in price indices of the rest of the items is core inflation. c) Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) developed by State Bank of Pakistan is a hybrid method based on permanent exclusion criteria. Volatile price items, to be excluded in the newly proposed measure RSC-CPI, are identified by analyzing the list and frequency of commodities that have been trimmed frequently in the past while computing monthly weighted trimmed mean measure. Commodities 45
  50. Inflation Monitor , March 2018 that were trimmed out 13 and above times since July 2008 to February 2013 are selected for permanently excluding from the CPI basket. This newly developed component includes a mix of both food and non-food commodities that show persistent price behavior. Fifty Commodities included comprise relatively stable component (RSC-CPI) with a weight of 67.69. The detailed methodology of RSC-CPI and group wise items along their weights can be viewed at the following link; http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2013/wp66.pdf 9. Weighted contribution of different items (or sub-groups) to total inflation is worked out as below: Let the overall index (It) is the weighted average of price indexes of individual items or sub-groups (Iit), i.e. I t   wi  I it i The weighted contribution of a single item (or a sub-group) to overall inflation is defined as below:  Cit   it 12  wi   it  t    Where C it : Contribution of ith item to the overall inflation  it 12  I it 12 ; i.e. ratio of item’s index to overall index in the I t 12 reference month wi : Weights of ith item  it : Inflation of ith item  t : Overall inflation 46
  51. State Bank of Pakistan 10 . Annualized rate of inflation (based on a month-on-month rate ) is computed as follows Annualized = ((1+ )12-1) 100 Methodology for Estimating Inflation Diffusion Index for Pakistan We constructed an index to measure the spread of inflation in the 487 commodities of the CPI basket. It is based on month-on-month (MoM) change in the prices of these commodities and can be obtained by estimating what is known as an ‘inflation diffusion index’ (IDI) as below: Thus, it is the difference between the share of items with increasing prices (i.e. depicting inflation) and the share of items with falling prices (i.e. depicting deflation) in CPI amongst the commodities for which prices have altered or remained constant1. Based upon commodity level price data from July 2001 to February 2011 we computed inflation diffusion indices overall (general) CPI basket and for all groups in CPI basket (except House Rent Index being single item). A simple analysis2 suggests that IDI is a leading indicator for Pakistan’s YoY inflation. 1 We do not observe the prices of certain commodities (like the seasonal items) during certain periods of time. To calculate the inflation diffusion index we consider the commodities for which prices have been reported (irrespective of changed or not) during the month under review. 2 Formal test shows one way ‘Granger’ causality from IDI to YoY inflation. 47