GCC Daily Market Update - 5 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 5 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,644.7 24,264.3 6,560.1 7,034.0 11,957.9 5,141.8 113,975.6 21,319.6 29,518.7 3,131.1 33,019.1 30.2 230.9 101.2 3.6 (44.6) (10.3) (618.5) 27.3 (661.4) (5.5) (351.6) 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.1 (0.4) (0.2) (0.5) 0.1 (2.2) (0.2) (1.1) 0.1 0.7 (0.3) (0.3) (1.1) (0.5) (0.8) (0.6) (1.9) (1.2) 0.2 (1.1) (1.8) 2.6 (8.5) (7.4) (3.2) (1.2) (6.3) (1.3) (5.3) (3.0) 8,707.7 7,871.7 4,609.0 3,091.2 4,827.0 4,794.6 1,282.7 1,643.6 3,597.9 (14.1) 71.9 23.8 (9.2) (19.3) 19.3 (7.9) (3.4) 15.5 (0.2) 0.9 0.5 (0.3) (0.4) 0.4 (0.6) (0.2) 0.4 1.6 0.0 0.5 (0.6) (2.7) 0.4 (2.7) (0.5) (0.4) 2.2 8.9 4.8 (8.3) NA (6.0) (3.7) 3.2 (1.0) 68.0 63.4 2.7 1,335.8 301.1 (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 3.0 (5.3) (0.2) (0.2) 0.8 0.2 (1.7) (2.7) (2.0) (0.8) 1.0 (0.0) 2.2 5.3 (8.2) 2.0 (8.4) Global The US equity markets ended higher yesterday for the 2nd straight session. The indices recorded sharp gains after the US President’s Chief Economic Advisor, stated to solve trade issue with amiable measures. The major indices however declined earlier during the session after China announced 25% import tariffs on about 106 US products. The S&P 500 inched 1.2% higher, buoyed by gains in Consumer Discretionary stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged 0.5% lower, following China’s tariffs announcement. The UK’s benchmark ended slightly higher, despite weakness in Mining stocks. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark edged 0.1% higher, buoyed by gains in Automakers post the reports of upbeat US auto sales data, however weakness in Banking stocks limited the gains. GCC Most GCC equity markets ended higher during yesterday’s trading session. The Saudi Arabian benchmark inched 0.9% higher, buoyed by gains in Energy and Banking stocks. Al Sorayai Trading advanced 6.6%, after the company’s CEO resigned. The Dubai’s benchmark ended 0.3% lower, amidst Emaar Properties continuing its downward trajectory, declining 0.5%. The index was also pressured by decline in Consumer Staples sector. The Abu Dhabi benchmark inched 0.5% higher, buoyed by gains in Banking stocks, however weakness in Real Estate stocks limited the gains. Qatar The QE index declined 0.2% during yesterday’s trading session, weighed by selling pressure amongst local retail and domestic institutional investors. Trade turnover declined amidst higher volumes during the session, with Telecommunication and Banking sectors together accounted for about 65% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 44 exchanged hands of which, 33 declined and 11 advanced. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.9 1.2 5.0 54.9 DSM 20 13.0 1.3 5.0 43.5 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.2 1.7 3.3 1,427.2 UAE (ADX) 11.8 1.3 5.2 27.5 UAE (DFM) 10.9 1.1 5.4 36.5 Kuwait (KSE) 15.2 1.1 5.7 74.0 Oman (MSM) 12.3 1.0 5.0 10.3 Bahrain (BAX) 8.7 0.8 6.4 0.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Vodafone Qatar Qatar Int’l Islamic Commercial Bank Qatar Fuel Industries Qatar Top Losers Doha Insurance Co Qatar General Ins. Islamic Holding Group Qatar Islamic Insurance Ezdan Holding Group Close Price 9.2 50.9 31.3 118.0 109.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.2 1.0 4.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 14.1 (6.8) 8.4 15.6 12.4 12.9 45.0 29.1 47.6 10.3 (0.7) (1.9) (0.9) (1.4) (0.3) (5.2) (4.1) (3.0) (2.9) (2.7) (7.9) (8.2) (22.4) (13.5) (15.1) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. (4.1) 4,803.4 NA (22.9) 283.7 9.3 (1.0) 76.7 34.5 (12.6) 52.0 12.2 (2.7) 48.8 19.9 (21.7) 14.8 (57.0) (24.1) (34.9) 13.0 5.9 15.2 4.4 796.5 15.3 12.8 NA 11.5 15.8 Qatar DSM Index 9,500 20.0 8,707.7 9,000 8,500 10.0 8,000 7,500 7/Jan 0.0 21/Jan 4/Feb 18/Feb Index Volume (mn) 4/Mar 18/Mar 1/Apr Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,863.0 5,570.5 2,942.1 3,090.5 1,805.5 1,112.3 1,771.7 1D Change (%) 0.1 0.3 0.1 (2.7) (2.2) 0.6 (1.9) Buy (%) 45.7 26.2 71.9 15.8 12.3 28.1 Sell (%) 47.4 30.1 77.5 13.4 9.1 22.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 5 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS  Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ oil output declined by 0.3% to 32.2mn barrels per day in March-18 on account of outages in Libya and a decline In Venezuelan output. (Source: Reuters)  The US President downplayed the prospect of a trade war with China through his tweet, while the US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said China’s response isn’t expected to disrupt the US economy. He further added that US is open to negotiations on the issue. (Source: Bloomberg)   The US central bank need not raise the interest rates further because the federal-funds rates of 1.5% to 1.75% are close to core inflation rate of 1.6% which denotes that the monetary policy is close to neutral, according to St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. (Source: Market watch) Private sector employment increased by 241,000 jobs over the month in March-18 according to the ADP National Employment Report. Midsized businesses added nearly half of all jobs this month. (Source:  The subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Development and Investment Entertainment, has signed an agreement with USbased AMC Cinemas to operate 40 cinema screens in 15 cities in the Kingdom. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based SABIC has announced the commencement of commercial operations of its the Methyl Methacrylate Monomer and Poly Methyl Methacrylate plants. (Source: Suadi Gazette)  Sahara Petrochemical Company received shareholders’ approval distribute cash dividends amounting to 10% of the face value of its captal for FY-17. (Source: Argaam)  National Bank of Oman has partnered with India-based Axis Bank for offering various banking servies to the Indian expat population in Oman. (Source: Little India)  Bahrain’s BHD 45.0mn (USD 119.0mn) waterfront development at Saada West Project in the Muharraq area is being completed at a fast pace with the reclamation work fully completed, according to a report by Bahrain news agency. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain’s imports increased 32.0% YoY in February-18 to BHD 440.0mn, Aluminium oxide accounted for the bulk of the imports amounting to BHD 32.0mn. China was the largest partner with imports of BHD 55.0mn according to the Information and eGovernment Authority. (Source: Zawya)  Kuwait based project management company KIPCO received the approval to distribute cash dividend amounting to 10.0 fils per share and a stock dividend of 5.0% of the face value of its capital. (Source: ADP Employment Report)  Eurozone’s annual inflation has increased 1.4% in March-18 from 1.1% in February-18 largely impacted by food, alcohol & tobacco prices which grew by 2.2%. (Source: Eurostat)  Japan’s central bank has bought a total of JPY 833.0bn (USD 7.8bn) in Exchange Traded Funds in March-18 for supporting a market that was affected by strength in JPY and fears of a global trade war. (Source: Reuters)  Japan’s output gap stood at 1.5% for Q4-17 as compared to 1.1% in Q3-17 according to Bank of Japan. (Source: Marketews)  Japan is moving toward legalizing initial coin offerings, even as countries such as China and the US restrict the fundraising technique because of their risks for investors. A government-backed study group laid out basic guidelines for further adoption of ICOs. (Source: Bloomberg)    Australian seasonally adjusted trade balance surplus fell 13.0% MoM to AUD 825.0mn in February-18 as the exports increased slightly to AUD 33.2bn while imports grew at 0.4% to AUD 33.4bn. (Source: ABS) China will be imposing additional tariffs of 25.0% on 106 US goods which includes soybeans, autos, chemicals, some types of aircrafts and corn products whose value was USD 50.0bn in 2017 according to the Commerce ministry. (Source: Reuters)     Total trading value between Qatar and the US had doubled from USD 3.0bn to USD 6.0bn during the past 10 years while almost 650 American companies are currently operating in Qatar, according to the Minister of Economy and Commerce. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar Rail has completed 77.0% work of Doha Metro Project, including 81.0% of construction work and 59.0% works related to installation of various systems, said a Qatar Rail official yesterday. The first phase of the project is expected to complete by 31st October-18. (Source: Peninsula Qatar) Qatar based commercial banks witnessed a 6% YoY increase in customers deposits to QAR 811.5bn in February-18 led 52.0% hike in the deposits from the public sector as per data released by the central bank. (Source: Gulf Times)  UAE banks lending to the industrial and business operations grew by 1.0% YTD or AED 7.4bn (USD 2.0bn) during two months ending February-18, to AED 755.0bn according to WAM. (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar is planning to increase its investments in the US through its sovereign wealth fund, Qatar Investment Authority according to Qatar Chamber Chairman, Sheikh Khalifa bin Jassim Al-Thani. (Source: Gulf Times)  UAE’s Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation has announced that it the country has no plans to implement a minimum wage policy as free labour market creates the optimal conditions to attract many expat workers to the nation. (Source: Arabian business) Qatar real estate sector witnessed a 13.0% YoY rise in the bank credit to QAR 147.7bn in 2017 while the total bank credit various sectors increased by 8.6% to QAR 911.0bn according Qatar Central bank.  A report by Institute of International Finance on India said that the nation’s economic growth outlook is improving, however downside risks from imperfections in GST, corporate restructuring and debt overhang continue to weigh. (Source: Financial Express) Dubai based hospitality firm Jumeirah haz has launched Zabeel House MINI a 3-star hotel with which provides facilities like free bikes rides, and self check-in services. (Source: Arabian business) (Source: Peninsula Qatar) Abu Dhabi based fuel and convenience retailer, ADNOC Distribution is planning to provide customers with a premium choice of services for purchasing fuel at a small fee or a self-serve option. (Source: Arabian The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) officially launched a USD 500mn fund to strengthen science, technology and innovation in the Arab World. The fund would support scientists of the 57 IDB members. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Dubai based Emirates Global Aluminium along with Abu Dhabi Ports have opened a new container freight station which will reduce trucking requirements of the company by over 290,000km annually. (Source: Arabian business)  QATAR NEWS  GCC NEWS  Kuwait Times) Qatar National Bank (QNB)’s deposits increased by 13.0% in 2017 despite of the withdrawals due to the blockade, the bank’s CEO stated. He further stated that the trend is expected to persist in Q1-18, due to higher oil prices and renewed confidence in the economy. (Source: Gulf Times)  Standard & Poor’s has affirmed the issuer Credit Rating of A- for Qatar Islamic Bank, considering its strong market position, asset size, robust financial performance and capitalization. (Source: Gulf Times) business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 5 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2308 USD/QAR 3.6415 106.7800 EUR/QAR 4.4820 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4109 JPY/QAR 0.0341 USD/CHF 0.9608 GBP/QAR 5.1378 USD/CAD 1.2770 CHF/QAR 3.7901 AUD/USD 0.7716 CAD/QAR 2.8516 NZD/USD 0.7305 AUD/QAR 2.8098 USD/INR 64.6475 INR/QAR 0.0563 USD/TRY 3.9992 TRY/QAR 0.9106 USD/ZAR 11.8827 ZAR/QAR 0.3065 USD/BRL 3.3303 BRL/QAR 1.0934 FX Commentary The USD ended lower against a basket of major currencies yesterday with dollar index ending 0.1% lower at 90.137. The weakness in the USD was triggered after Chinese regulators announced 25% import tariffs on 106 US product. The EUR strengthened against the greenback on back of accelerating Eurozone inflation for March-18, inching closer towards the ECB’s target of 2%. The GBP strengthened against the dollar, despite weaker-thanexpected UK construction data as investors remained optimistic about expected interest rate hike in May-18 meeting. The CAD ended higher against its US counterpart as investors shrugged off tensions regarding Sino-US trade war, and focused on optimism surrounding the NAFTA trade deal. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.70 1.74 1.88 2.32 2.67 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.29 2.36 2.47 2.66 3.05 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.90 2.03 2.28 2.67 2.0% EIBOR 1.50 1.62 1.91 2.39 2.92 BMIBOR 1.63 1.90 2.43 2.78 3.28 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.50 KIBOR 2.63% 2.31% 4.73% 3.39% 3.46% 3.53% 2.63% 2.76% 2.81% 3.04% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 27.3 (1.0) Turkey 195.2 18.8 UK 18.9 (7.6) Brazil 167.6 (19.1) Germany 11.7 (2.5) Egypt 272.5 (70.5) France 18.6 (4.2) Abu Dhabi Italy 102.9 (41.8) Greece 350.4 Russia 121.8 Japan 25.6 2.62% 2.85% 2.80% 2.77% 2.0% 1.58% 2.31% 2.14% 1.98% 2.89% 2.57% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 64.5 6.7 Bahrain 296.5 65.2 (184.5) Dubai 107.7 (22.6) (10.1) Qatar 87.9 (9.6) (13.0) Saudi Arabia 87.9 4.3 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Germany Factory Orders MoM Period Survey Prior Feb 1.50% (3.90%) 09:00 Germany Factory Orders WDA YoY 10:50 France Markit France Services PMI Feb 6.50% 8.20% Mar F 56.8 56.8 10:55 Germany Markit Germany Services PMI 10:55 Germany Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Mar F 54.2 54.2 Mar F 55.4 11:00 Eurozone 55.4 Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar F 55 11:00 55 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar F 55.3 55.3 11:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Mar 54 54.5 11:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Mar 54 54.5 12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales MoM Feb 0.50% (0.10%) 12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales YoY Feb 2.20% 2.30% 15:30 Canada Int'l Merchandise Trade Feb (2.10b) (1.91b) 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Mar-31st 225k 215k 15:30 US Continuing Claims Mar-24th 1843k 1871k 15:30 US Trade Balance Feb ($56.8b) ($56.6b) 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Mar-30th - 457.8b 03:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings YoY Feb 0.50% 0.70% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 5 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 29th March 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 3.3 0.0 11.1 3.3 6.8 5.7 4.9 0.0 4.4 8.0 4.6 6.9 5.0 7.1 5.8 6.0 4.0 7.3 0.0 0.0 7.2 6.4 6.6 6.2 0.0 4.1 4.8 4.8 4.1 2.2 7.7 8.0 4.6 0.0 5.3 3.5 4.9 7.3 4.0 7.5 4.8 0.0 8.4 5.8 4.2 0.0 3.3 4.2 6.5 6.2 6.1 4.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 2.0 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.1 1.8 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.5 3.1 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.9 1.3 2.3 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.7 1.5 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 4.9 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 10.4 20.1 20.2 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.2 13.1 164.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 9.1 9.1 24.6 10.1 5.1 27.0 14.6 20.2 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.8 6.7 11.1 12.2 40.2 12.4 19.2 17.0 12.8 16.7 10.0 11.2 16.5 17.9 16.7 28.2 12.8 11.7 20.7 7.6 16.5 30.1 8.7 11.6 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.9 11.0 10.0 13.8 11.3 12.2 EPS (QR) 3.0 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.7 11.1 2.5 9.7 1.2 9.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 15.2 5.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.7 1.5 4.1 2.1 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 25.2 42.1 48.6 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 40.1 64.5 35.6 69.0 21.1 71.1 6.0 12.9 19.0 116.2 44.7 12.7 19.8 10.5 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.3 20.8 25.1 70.8 23.4 32.4 48.6 11.4 12.8 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.7 118.3 32.8 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 31.5 30.0 11.8 27.0 30.2 11.1 35.3 10.3 6.4 97.5 50.0 130.0 7.3 56.2 68.6 142.0 25.2 110.0 5.8 5.8 59.0 101.0 9.7 18.4 6.1 105.1 14.7 188.0 33.9 39.0 56.0 10.3 14.1 37.5 45.0 48.2 33.5 10.5 7.3 14.9 82.5 8.7 40.5 15.3 56.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4