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Saudi Arabia: Real Estate Price Index - 4Q 2016

IM Research
By IM Research
7 years ago
Saudi Arabia: Real Estate Price Index - 4Q 2016

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Sustainability


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  1. Real Estate Price Index Fourth Quarter 2016 Bulletins
  2. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index Introduction : Real estate industry plays a substantial role in promoting sustainable development in KSA; it is a strategic production factor for all vital sectors. It is also a vital incentive for income-based, job-creating investment, in addition to being a basis for launching investment projects in miscellaneous economic and social fields. Hence, thorough attention is paid to movements of prices of the constituent units of real estate sector, as well as to the values of real estate transactions carried out throughout the KSA regions. Besides, changes that take place every now and then in this industry are followed up through the Real Estate Price Index Program, established on the basis of the relevant data provided by the Ministry of Justice (MOJ) in a spirit of integration and cooperation among the various governmental bodies to contribute to the sustainable development in KSA. The Real Estate Price Index defines distinctive real estate statistical indicators that measure the performance of the real estate market in KSA, and bridge the gap of real estate data. Furthermore, it is reckoned an essential tool that helps relevant authorities take sound economic decisions in this regard. The Real Estate Price Index data are especially helpful in the economic and statistical analysis of real estate price movements, and making predictions about real estate trends in the future. GASTAT is pleased to provide this bulletin to researchers, planners, research centers and entities interested in economic affairs, hoping that the regular and periodic data meet their needs and aspirations. Allah is the Arbiter of Success. General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) T. +966114014138 P.O. Box: 3735, Riyadh 11481 E-mail: Info@stats.gov.sa 2
  3. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index Real Estate Price Index Methodology Description : GASTAT provides the Real Estate Price Index data through the MOJ to construct the real estate price index and to track changes taking place in the real estate prices. Given the paramount significance of such data, an integrated system was developed to fulfill all requirements necessary for collecting and auditing data, along with calculating the index. Objectives:  Developing sophisticated real estate statistical indicators that measure the performance of the real estate market in KSA.  Bridging the gap in real estate data.  Satisfying international, regional and domestic requirements in this regard. Definition: Real Estate Price Index is "a statistical tool for measuring the relative change in real estate prices between two points in time." Data Source: The data required for calculating the real estate index are provided by the MOJ as the only official reference and source of the data related to the real estate sector in KSA. Data Nature:  The MOJ provides GASTAT with the detailed data of the cities which represent all administrative regions as per a number of variables achieving purposes of the calculation of agricultural, commercial and residential real estate index numbers.  Having obtained primary data of the real estate transactions for the years 2012-2015, GASTAT studied those data through its team of specialists to evaluate them, and verify their adequacy for constructing the real estate index. Accordingly, the following items are determined:  The appropriate base year.  The level of coverage/ representation. 3
  4. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index  Classification.  Calculation of weights (relative importance). Coverage: The real estate index covers all administrative regions of KSA. Base Year: The base year is determined to be 2014. Classification: The MOJ data are classified into three main sectors: a) Residential Sector: It includes residential plots, residential buildings, villas, apartments and houses. b) Commercial Sector: It covers commercial plots, commercial buildings, galleries/shops, and malls. c) Agricultural Sector: It is made up of the agrarian lands. 4
  5. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index Weights (Relative Importance): Weights are calculated based on the value of real estate transactions of each sector comprising the index in the course of the base year. Relative Importance by Sector all over KSA Reviewing and Verifying Data: Data are reviewed and verified through the following methodology: - Making sure that data and prices are logical and inclusive. - Setting automatic verification rules to be followed during data-entry, auditing, processing and publishing. - Applying procedures that address the problem of disappearance of prices of some real estate types. Calculation of Real Estate Price Index:  Laspeyres equation is used to calculate the real estate index: wt P1 P0 Relative importance i District Current price k Real estate type Base year price 5
  6. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index How to make use of Real Estate Price Index results ? Real Estate Price Index data are used in many fields, including:  Monitoring price movements of real estate assets;  Assisting the relevant authorities in taking sound economic decisions;  Measuring changes in real estate prices from time to time; and  Using the Real Estate Price Index data to make the economic and statistical analysis of real estate price movements, and come up with predictions about real estate trends in the future.  It is used as a main economic indicator to predict the economic growth. Publishing: Real Estate Price Index data are published as follows:  Results of the Real Estate Price Index are published as per specific dates declared at the GASTAT website.  The GASTAT website www.stats.gov.sa is regarded as the accredited official publishing platform.  Results of the Real Estate Price Index are published by contacting media, and through social networks.  The reports are submitted to the relevant authorities. 6
  7. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index Main Features of Real Estate Price Index Movements in Q4 of 2016 First : Quarterly Change: Real Estate Price Index for Q4 of 2016, compared to Q3 of 2016, declined by 3.5% due to changes that took place in the constituting sectors of the index as follows: Decrease Percentage Sector Percentage (%) Residential -3.4 Commercial Agricultural 7 -4.1 -0.3 Key items Item Percentage (%) Plot -3.5 building -1.6 villa -1.7 apartment -2.8 House -0.9 Plot -4.1 Gallery / Shop -3.3 Agricultural Land -0.3
  8. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index Second : Annual change: Real Estate Price Index for Q4 of 2016, compared to Q4 of 2015, declined by 8.7% due to changes that took place in the constituting sectors of the index as follows: Decrease Percentage Sector Residential Commercial Percentage (%) -7.4 -12.3 Key items: Item Plot -7.6 Building -5.1 Villa -6.3 Apartment -4.5 House -1.4 Plot -12.3 Gallery / Shop -1.9 Commercial Center Agricultural 8 -1.1 Percentage (%) Agricultural Land -0.8 -1.1
  9. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index Tables 9
  10. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index )1( ‫جدول‬ Table (1) Quarterly Real Estate Indices and percent change ‫األرقام القياسية ألسعار العقارات الربع‬ ‫سنوية ونسب التغير‬ 2014=100 ‫األرقام القياسية‬ General index , Sectors & items Index Numbers ‫نسبة التغير من الربع‬ ‫ إلى‬2016 ‫الرابع‬ Percent Change to Qtr.4 2016 ‫الربع‬ ‫الربع‬ ‫الثالث‬ ‫الرابع‬ Qtr.3 Qtr.4 2016 2015 ‫الرقم القياس ي‬ ‫العام والقطاعات‬ ‫واالصناف‬ ‫الربع‬ ‫الرابع‬ Qtr.4 2016 ‫الربع‬ ‫الثالث‬ Qtr.3 2016 ‫الربع‬ ‫الرابع‬ Qtr.4 2015 General index 87.5 90.7 95.8 -3.5 -8.7 ‫الرقم القياس ي العام‬ Residential Plot 90.0 90.0 93.2 93.2 97.2 97.3 -3.4 -3.5 -7.4 -7.6 ‫سكني‬ ‫قطعة أرض‬ Building Villa 95.9 93.2 97.5 94.8 101.1 99.4 -1.6 -1.7 -5.1 -6.3 ‫عمارة‬ ‫فيال‬ Apartment House 89.8 97.5 92.4 98.4 94.0 98.9 -2.8 -0.9 -4.5 -1.4 Commercial Plot 81.7 81.6 85.2 85.1 93.1 93.1 -4.1 -4.1 -12.3 -12.3 ‫شقة‬ ‫بيت‬ ‫تجاري‬ ‫قطعة أرض‬ Building Gallery / Shop Commercial Center Agricultural Agricultural Land 102.1 91.5 102.1 94.6 101.8 93.3 0.0 -3.3 0.3 -1.9 ‫عمارة‬ ‫ محل‬/ ‫معرض‬ 101.9 101.9 102.8 0.0 -0.8 ‫مركز تجاري‬ 94.3 94.3 94.6 94.6 95.3 95.3 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 ‫زراعي‬ ‫ارض زراعية‬ 10
  11. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index 11
  12. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index )2( ‫جدول‬ Table (2) Series of Real Estate Indices Quarterly in The Kingdom ‫سلسلة األرقام القياسية ألسعار‬ ‫العقارات باململكة‬ Qtr. 4 - 2016 ‫السنة‬ Year ‫الربع‬ ‫األول‬ Qtr.1 2014=100 ‫الربع‬ ‫الثاني‬ Qtr.2 2016 - ‫الربع الرابع‬ ‫الربع‬ ‫الثالث‬ Qtr.3 ‫الربع‬ ‫الرابع‬ Qtr.4 General index 2014 2015 2016 ‫املتوسط السنوي‬ Annual average ‫الرقم القياس ي العام‬ 98.2 99.2 94.8 99.3 98.1 92.9 101.0 96.4 90.7 101.6 95.8 87.5 100.0 97.4 91.5 Residential 2014 2015 2016 ‫سكني‬ 97.9 100.1 96.8 98.9 99.8 95.3 101.3 98.2 93.2 101.8 97.1 90.0 Plot 100.0 98.8 93.8 ‫قطعة أرض‬ 2014 2015 2016 97.9 100.2 96.9 98.9 99.9 95.4 101.4 98.2 93.2 101.9 97.3 90.0 100.0 98.9 93.9 Building ‫عمارة‬ 2014 2015 2016 97.6 102.2 98.8 99.0 102.1 99.4 99.7 102.1 97.5 103.7 101.1 95.9 100.0 101.9 97.9 Villa ‫فيال‬ 2014 2015 2016 101.2 101.4 101.2 100.0 100.9 97.3 98.2 104.9 94.8 100.6 99.4 93.2 100.0 101.7 96.6 apartment ‫شقة‬ 2014 2015 2016 98.7 98.3 93.7 99.5 96.7 91.9 12 100.6 95.3 92.4 101.2 94.0 89.8 100.0 96.1 92.0
  13. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index )2( ‫جدول‬ Table (2) Series of Real Estate Indices Quarterly in The Kingdom ‫سلسلة األرقام القياسية ألسعار‬ ‫العقارات باململكة‬ Qtr. 4 - 2016 ‫السنة‬ Year ‫الربع‬ ‫األول‬ Qtr.1 2014=100 ‫الربع‬ ‫الثاني‬ Qtr.2 2016 - ‫الربع الرابع‬ ‫الربع‬ ‫الثالث‬ Qtr.3 ‫الربع‬ ‫الرابع‬ Qtr.4 ‫املتوسط السنوي‬ Annual average House ‫بيت‬ 2014 2015 2016 100.8 98.6 99.1 100.1 98.8 98.8 100.0 98.5 98.4 99.1 98.9 97.5 100.0 98.7 98.5 ‫تجاري‬ Commercial 2014 2015 2016 98.5 97.5 90.8 99.9 94.7 88.0 100.2 92.9 85.2 101.5 93.0 81.7 100.0 94.5 86.4 ‫قطعة أرض‬ 2014 2015 2016 98.5 97.5 90.7 99.9 94.7 88.0 100.2 92.8 85.1 101.5 93.0 81.6 100.0 94.5 86.3 Plot ‫عمارة‬ Building 2014 2015 2016 100.0 100.0 101.8 100.0 100.0 102.0 100.0 100.0 102.1 100.0 101.8 102.1 100.0 100.5 102.0 ‫ محل‬/ ‫معرض‬ 98.7 98.7 95.2 98.3 96.1 92.6 101.1 93.5 94.6 101.9 93.3 91.5 100.0 95.4 93.5 ‫مركز تجاري‬ 100.8 102.5 102.0 100.0 102.7 102.0 97.5 103.1 101.9 101.8 102.8 101.9 100.0 102.7 102.0 Gallery / Shop 2014 2015 2016 Commercial Center 2014 2015 2016 13
  14. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index )2( ‫جدول‬ Table (2) Series of Real Estate Indices Quarterly in The Kingdom ‫سلسلة األرقام القياسية ألسعار‬ ‫العقارات باململكة‬ Qtr. 4 - 2016 ‫السنة‬ Year ‫الربع‬ ‫األول‬ Qtr.1 2014=100 ‫الربع‬ ‫الثاني‬ Qtr.2 2016 - ‫الربع الرابع‬ ‫الربع‬ ‫الثالث‬ Qtr.3 ‫الربع‬ ‫الرابع‬ Qtr.4 ‫املتوسط السنوي‬ Annual average Agricultural 2014 2015 2016 ‫زراعي‬ 99.1 96.3 95.2 100.4 95.9 94.8 101.1 95.6 94.6 99.4 95.3 94.3 Agricultural Land 2014 2015 2016 100.0 95.8 94.7 ‫ارض زراعية‬ 99.1 96.3 95.2 100.4 95.9 94.8 14 101.1 95.6 94.6 99.4 95.3 94.3 100.0 95.8 94.7
  15. ‫‪Bulletins‬‬ ‫‪Real Estate Price Index‬‬ ‫جدول (‪)3‬‬ ‫)‪Table (3‬‬ ‫‪Indices for Real Estate‬‬ ‫‪Regions‬‬ ‫األرقام القياسية ألسعار العقارات‬ ‫على مستوى املناطق‬ ‫الربع الرابع ‪2016 -‬‬ ‫اململكة واملناطق‬ ‫االدارية‬ ‫اململكة‬ ‫الرياض‬ ‫مكة املكرمة‬ ‫املدينة املنورة‬ ‫الشرقية‬ ‫القصيم‬ ‫عسير‬ ‫تبوك‬ ‫حائل‬ ‫جازان‬ ‫الباحة‬ ‫الجوف‬ ‫نجران‬ ‫الحدود الشمالية‬ ‫‪2014=100‬‬ ‫الرقم‬ ‫العام‬ ‫‪87.5‬‬ ‫‪86.1‬‬ ‫‪85.9‬‬ ‫‪96.0‬‬ ‫‪89.9‬‬ ‫‪85.9‬‬ ‫‪86.9‬‬ ‫‪86.2‬‬ ‫‪87.3‬‬ ‫‪89.1‬‬ ‫‪84.6‬‬ ‫‪86.9‬‬ ‫‪90.9‬‬ ‫‪89.0‬‬ ‫الرقم القياس ي للربع الرابع ‪2016‬‬ ‫القطاع‬ ‫القطاع‬ ‫القطاع‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫الزراعي‬ ‫السكني‬ ‫‪94.3‬‬ ‫‪81.7‬‬ ‫‪90.0‬‬ ‫‪129.2‬‬ ‫‪76.6‬‬ ‫‪93.4‬‬ ‫‪96.0‬‬ ‫‪81.4‬‬ ‫‪87.4‬‬ ‫‪93.4‬‬ ‫‪99.6‬‬ ‫‪96.0‬‬ ‫‪97.2‬‬ ‫‪89.4‬‬ ‫‪89.9‬‬ ‫‪82.7‬‬ ‫‪88.9‬‬ ‫‪85.3‬‬ ‫‪92.0‬‬ ‫‪95.6‬‬ ‫‪85.3‬‬ ‫‪100.5‬‬ ‫‪89.2‬‬ ‫‪83.7‬‬ ‫‪98.7‬‬ ‫‪85.8‬‬ ‫‪86.7‬‬ ‫‪83.4‬‬ ‫‪82.9‬‬ ‫‪92.2‬‬ ‫‪107.3‬‬ ‫‪97.0‬‬ ‫‪82.0‬‬ ‫‪110.7‬‬ ‫‪84.5‬‬ ‫‪82.7‬‬ ‫‪99.6‬‬ ‫‪89.3‬‬ ‫‪88.6‬‬ ‫‪92.8‬‬ ‫‪88.5‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪Qtr. 4 - 2016‬‬ ‫‪Kingdom & Regions‬‬ ‫‪Kingdom‬‬ ‫‪Ar Riyad‬‬ ‫‪Makkah‬‬ ‫‪Madinh‬‬ ‫‪Eastern‬‬ ‫‪Al Qaseem‬‬ ‫‪Aseer‬‬ ‫‪Tabouk‬‬ ‫‪Hail‬‬ ‫‪Jazan‬‬ ‫‪Al Baha‬‬ ‫‪Al Jouf‬‬ ‫‪Najran‬‬ ‫‪Northern‬‬
  16. Bulletins Real Estate Price Index )4( ‫جدول‬ Table (4) The Relative Importance of The Sectors & items of Real Estate Prices ‫األهمية النسبية لقطاعات وأصناف الرقم‬ ‫القياس ي ألسعار العقارات‬ 2014=100 General index , Sectors & items ‫األهمية النسبية‬ ‫الرقم القياس ي العام والقطاعات‬ ‫واألصناف‬ General index Residential Plot Building 100.0 65.4 62.2 0.03 ‫الرقم القياس ي العام‬ ‫سكني‬ ‫قطعة أرض‬ ‫عمارة‬ villa apartment House Commercial Plot Building Gallery / Shop Commercial Center Agrarian Agrarian Land 0.4 2.6 0.2 31.0 30.9 0.003 0.1 0.1 3.6 3.6 ‫فيال‬ ‫شقة‬ ‫بيت‬ ‫تجاري‬ ‫قطعة أرض‬ ‫عمارة‬ ‫ محل‬/ ‫معرض‬ ‫مركز تجاري‬ ‫زراعي‬ ‫ارض زراعية‬ 16
  17. stats .gov.sa