MENA Market Report - 10 November

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Thursday , November 10, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets closed on a negative note following the shock victory by Donald Trump to become the 45th president of the US. Du bai and Qatar were the most impacted , however the broader markets absorbed the news fairly well, especially the impact it is likely to have on oil prices, capital flows and trade. Going forward, equity markets will continue to remain volatile as the extent of changes and is likely impact on economies, both global and regional cannot be gauge at this stage, hence remaining cautious might be the most prudent for investors. For the regional markets, five out of the eight indexes closed in red, while the remaining three ended in green. Egypt and Saudi Arabia were having a dream run, remaining resilient and ignoring the global events to focus on the domestic developments, which is likely to stimulate economic activity. Egypt appreciated by 1.3% for the day, extending the gains to 16.1% in the past four trading sessions and 46% rise for the year 2016. Saudi Arabia was up by 0.8% for the day, extending the weekly gains to 5.3%. The change in sentiments is likely to push Saudi index into positive territory for the year 2016, however, there might be some pullback as investors book some profits. UAE markets closed lower as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were both down by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively for the day. Qatar closed marginally lower by 0.1% for the day, however remains positive for the week. Oman and Kuwait closed lower by 0.6% and 0.3%, while Bahrain managed to record marginal gains of 0.1% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a positive note as Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P were all up by 1.4%, 1.1% and 1.1% respectively for the day . European markets closed on a positive note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all up by 1.0%, 1.6% and 1.5% respectively for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a positive note as Hang Seng, Nikkei, and Shanghai were all up by 1.9%, 6.1%, and 1.1% respectively for the day. Headlines (WW) Fed to proceed with December U.S. rate rise despite Trump upset (GCC) New authority can fast-track GCC economic integration (WW) UK house prices rise at fastest pace since April, supply shortage intensifies (SA) Saudis see no change in ties during Trump presidency (WW) UK looks to rekindle China investment ties after Hinkley hiccup (AE) Dubai Economy Tracker points to moderating private sector growth (WW) China Consumer Inflation Picks Up, Driven by Higher Food Prices (WW) China disappointed EU hasn't completely recognized its market economy status (AE) Dubai airline Emirates reports 75% fall in H1 profit (WW) China Oct factory prices rise more than forecast, consumer prices also pick up (AE) Abu Dhabi approves major infrastructure projects (WW) China's steel, raw materials surge again to multi-year peaks (EG) Egyptian president upstages world leaders to congratulate Trump (WW) Mexico's Carstens says ready to act to protect economy (QA) GE to power up Qatar's future smart city (CMD) Gold, silver prices surge as reaction to demonetisation and Trump win (QA) Qatar fiscal pressures may ease from 2017 on oil rebound, diversification: BMI (CMD) Oil dips on rising crude inventories, after Trump's shock victory (OM) Oman's Liwa Plastics project to create 12,000 indirect jobs (FX) Dollar Plunges, Then Recovers Broadly in Volatile Post-Election Trade (OM) Oman Oil, Kuwait Petroleum sign deal on Duqm refinery (FX) Sterling makes strong gains as Donald Trump wins the US election (JO) Jordan's public debt USD 36 billion in Q3 (FI) US bond market raises inflation flag after Trump win (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) (AE) Dubai business conditions improve, but growth slow MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,278.93 -0.8% -0.6% -1.6% 4.1% ˅ ˅ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,323.39 -0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,379.62 0.8% 5.3% 6.1% -7.7% ˄ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,455.59 -0.3% 0.9% 1.0% -2.8% ˄ ˅ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 10,225.50 1.3% 16.1% 21.9% 46.0% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 9,974.60 -0.1% 0.2% -1.9% -4.4% ˅ ˅ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,145.53 0.1% 0.1% -0.3% -5.8% ˄ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,406.44 -0.6% -1.0% -1.4% 0.0% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 702 297 279 257 103 98 77,775 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 255 84 78 88 39 42 114,608 Saudi (SASEIDX) 467 195 211 1,684 803 936 396,848 Kuwait (KWSE) 181 74 87 69 35 33 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 751 202 201 120 60 57 24,637 Qatar (DSM) 11 7 6 115 78 70 126,126 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 2 2 0 1 1 17,679 Oman (MSM30) 23 16 16 24 9 9 16,064 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Thursday , November 10, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.4 12.7 12 PB 11.1 10.4 8.1 386.2 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.5 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi 5.9% 5.1% 5.5% 4.6% 4.0% 3.4% 4% 2.1% 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 6% Current 489.3 13.0 8.9 1.2 Previous 600 Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 54% 45% 36% 27% 18% 9% 0% -9% -18% -27% 46.0% 4.1% 0.4% 0.0% -7.7% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi -2.8% Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available -4.4% -5.8% Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Thursday , November 10, 2016 Dubai Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DEYAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 0.51 -3.21% 14,320 7,454 UNION PROPERTIES PJSC 0.70 -2.78% 30,512 21,663 22,942 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 0.98 -2.77% 1,592 1,586 22,874 28,707 EMIRATES INTEGRATED TELECOMM 5.90 -2.64% 2,816 16,842 6,403 16,583 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.19 -2.46% 10,617 12,794 DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) 0.60 7.14% 718 416 ABU DHABI SHIP BUILDING PJSC 2.70 -10.00% 8 22 UNION CEMENT CO PSC 1.13 5.61% 27 29 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.54 -6.90% 3 2 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.51 2.00% 27,215 13,744 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.96 -3.03% 2 1 UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 4.04 1.51% 376 1,508 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 5.79 -2.69% 477 2,798 SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 1.52 1.33% 116 176 ABU DHABI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 3.40 -2.58% 1,725 5,942 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI CERAMIC CO SJSC 29.10 9.81% 861 23,937 ABDULLAH AL OTHAIM MARKETS CO 86.00 -3.10% 162 14,159 GULF UNION COOPERATIVE INSUR 10.40 9.47% 2,942 29,273 ALDREES PETROLEUM & TRANSPORT 31.40 -2.18% 545 17,291 DAR AL ARKAN REAL ESTATE DEV 5.45 6.86% 145,461 767,306 KINGDOM HOLDING CO 10.20 -1.92% 787 8,103 FAWAZ ABDULAZIZ ALHOKAIR CO SJSC 26.70 6.37% 4,788 124,009 NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANK SJSC 42.00 -1.87% 2,264 95,981 MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS 8.10 5.88% 13,326 104,940 CHUBB ARABIA COOP INSURANCE 31.90 -1.54% 234 7,523 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) IKARUS PETROLEUM INDUSTRIES CO 34.00 7.94% 999 33 SAFAT GLOBAL HOLDING CO 42.00 -10.64% 1 0 INOVEST BSC 72.00 7.46% 878 61 REAL ESTATE TRADE CENTERS CO 31.00 -8.82% 1 0 NOOR FINANCIAL INVESTMENT CO 46.00 5.75% 1,791 80 AMAR FINANCE AND LEASING CO 59.00 -7.81% 1 0 AL MASAKEN INTL. REAL ESTATE 46.50 5.68% 1,617 73 NATIONAL RANGES CO KPSC 28.50 -5.00% 4,441 130 NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDING 63.00 5.00% 285 18 EKTTITAB HOLDING CO KSCP 38.00 -5.00% 647 25 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) 0.06 20.00% 15 1 MARIDIVE AND OIL SERVICES SAE 0.22 -4.35% 325 73 EASTERN CO SAE 261.00 9.24% 229 57,124 GULF ARAB INVESTMENT CO SAE 0.23 -4.17% 2 0 ALEXANDRIA CONTAINER AND CARGO 104.42 8.20% 39 3,957 WADI KOM OMBO FOR LAND RECL 5.03 -4.01% 4 21 SUEZ CEMENT COMPANY SAE 10.86 7.74% 102 1,064 EAST DELTA FLOUR MILLS CO SAE 57.04 -3.97% 1 34 NASR CO FOR CIVIL WORKS SAE 11.50 6.48% 3 33 ACROWMISR FOR METALLIC 34.00 -3.55% 1 23 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATAR NATIONAL CEMENT CO QSC 84.90 3.79% 6 538 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 20.20 -3.81% 62 1,282 AL KHALIJ COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 17.90 2.23% 21 371 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 29.90 -2.92% 564 17,106 INDUSTRIES QATAR QSC 103.00 1.78% 208 21,248 AL MEERA CONSUMER GOODS CO 170.20 -1.90% 17 2,970 WIDAM FOOD CO QSC 62.90 1.45% 3 216 QATAR FIRST BANK LLC 9.50 -1.86% 494 4,734 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 55.20 1.28% 62 3,412 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QSC 48.85 -1.71% 0 12 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 2.01 4.15% 12,442 24,510 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE & REIN 0.52 3.80% 76 39 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.25 3.31% 18,652 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.26 0.80% EMAAR MALLS GROUP PJSC 2.60 0.78% Close * ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Egypt TRANS OCEANS TOURS SAE Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Thursday , November 10, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 68,798 86.00 -0.3% 12.1% 5,076 116,421 91.00 59.50 16 1.6 6.4% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 43,692 18.45 -2.4% 14.6% 1,780 8,944 20.20 14.95 18 3.8 4.3% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 35,977 156.00 0.0% 7.0% 100 4,269 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.6% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 33,599 63.00 0.0% -7.7% 1,866 31,360 69.75 51.00 15 2.1 6.3% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 26,866 62.00 0.4% 19.2% 7,470 123,517 62.75 44.70 13 2.0 2.4% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 22,399 42.00 -1.9% -17.6% 2,264 25,358 54.25 32.00 9 1.4 3.7% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 20,610 18.55 -0.5% 17.8% 2,024 10,013 21.80 12.40 25 1.2 3.8% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,115 103.00 1.8% -7.3% 208 5,888 119.90 88.00 19 1.9 4.9% 9 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,605 67.00 1.1% 20.7% 2,345 41,898 68.75 40.80 107 6.2 0.0% 10 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 14,704 12.00 0.8% -5.1% 3,676 12,013 13.50 9.90 9 1.5 8.3% 11 DP World Ltd AE 14,318 17.25 -2.3% -15.0% 57 268 20.30 16.05 14 1.7 1.7% 12 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 13,199 6.77 -0.3% 19.0% 16,746 30,870 7.46 4.22 10 1.2 2.2% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 12,693 59.50 1.3% 1.4% 415 6,591 66.00 40.88 23 3.7 1.4% 14 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 12,626 8.90 0.7% 11.8% 363 879 10.35 6.86 10 1.0 5.1% 15 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,339 39.60 -1.0% 19.3% 2,134 22,538 43.20 25.70 122 1.7 0.0% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 11,880 7.85 -0.1% 6.1% 72 153 8.89 6.25 6 0.8 5.1% 17 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 11,361 610.00 1.7% -18.0% 1,386 2,797 799.36 550.00 12 1.1 4.6% 18 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,306 21.20 1.0% -9.2% 1,338 7,567 23.55 15.90 8 1.0 4.2% 19 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,299 15.51 -1.6% -2.5% 343 1,461 20.24 12.10 24 1.4 3.2% 20 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,080 10.20 -1.9% -35.0% 787 2,140 21.20 9.80 74 1.4 4.9% 21 Safat Global Holding Co KW 9,265 42.00 -10.6% 0.0% 1 0 49.50 42.00 0 0.0 0.0% 22 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,214 2.60 0.8% -5.8% 6,403 4,533 3.10 2.02 18 2.2 3.8% 23 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,066 5.95 -0.8% -9.7% 1,581 2,562 7.36 5.20 7 1.0 7.6% 24 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,574 495.00 -1.0% 0.8% 4,417 7,233 545.45 395.45 13 1.4 3.1% 25 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,200 10.25 0.5% -17.3% 3,285 8,981 12.85 8.55 8 0.8 6.8% 26 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,120 20.30 1.0% -18.0% 313 1,693 28.40 16.40 7 1.0 3.7% 27 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,068 91.70 -0.3% 22.3% 36 918 107.00 60.00 13 1.3 3.3% 28 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 7,905 24.60 2.1% -12.1% 869 5,702 30.00 18.00 7 1.0 4.3% 29 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,500 67.50 0.0% -18.4% 258 4,651 88.25 58.00 25 4.3 8.9% 30 Emirates Integrated Telecomm Co AE 7,344 5.90 -2.6% 15.7% 2,816 4,524 6.99 4.89 15 3.5 7.3% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 504,722 4.2% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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