Central Bank of Egypt: Balance of Payments Performance - 2016/2017

Transcription

1. 1 Central Bank of Egypt Press Release Balance of Payments Performance in FY 2016 /2017 In FY 2016/2017, Egypt's BOP ran an overall surplus of US$ 13.7 billion )of which, US$ 12.2 billion were realized in November/June 2016/2017, following the CBE's decision of the exchange rate liberalization( against an overall deficit of US$ 2.8 billion in the previous FY. This is because the capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 29.0 billion (against US$ 21.2 billion) and the current account deficit narrowed by 21.5% to US$ 15.6 billion (from US$ 19.8 billion). The following is a review of the main developments that affected the BOP performance in FY 2016/2017: First: The Current Account The current account deficit fell by 21.5% to US$ 15.6 billion (from US$ 19.8 billion). It is to be noted that the deficit narrowed by 13.1% in October/December; by 37.7% in January/March; and by 50.0% in April/June (the period that witnessed the liberalization of the exchange rate), after it had registered a surge of 24.3% in July/September 2016 (before the liberalization decision). The developments in the current account in FY 2016/17 are illustrated below, along with the key developments that took place in April/June 2017: 1. Trade Balance: In FY 2016/2017, The trade deficit declined by 8.4% to US$ 35.4 billion (from US$ 38.7 billion a year earlier), due to the US$ 3.0 billion rise in merchandise exports and the US$ 265.6 million decline in merchandise imports.
2. 2 Merchandise export proceeds rose by 15 .9% to US$ 21.7 billion (from US$ 18.7 billion), thanks to the rise in both non-oil and oil exports. The former increased by 16.2%, from US$ 13.0 billion to US$ 15.1 billion (reflecting the improvement of the competitiveness of Egyptian exports immediately after the said decision), while the latter moved up by 15.4%, from US$ 5.7 billion to US$ 6.5 billion. Concurrently, merchandise imports stepped down by 0.5%, to register US$ 57.1 billion (against US$ 57.4 billion), as non-oil imports declined by 4.5% to US$ 45.9 billion (against US$ 48.1 billion). Meanwhile, oil imports increased by US$ 1.9 billion. It is noteworthy that the April/June 2017 data shows the improvement in the trade deficit by 5.1%, to register US$ 8.4 billion (against US$ 8.8 billion), mainly due to the 7.4% rise in export proceeds and the 0.4% retreat in merchandise imports. 2. Services Balance: In FY 2016/2017‎, Services surplus picked up by 4.3%, to record US$ 6.8 billion (against US$ 6.5 billion a year earlier) on the back of the following developments:  The rise in travel receipts (tourism revenues) by 16.2% to US$ 4.4 billion (against US$ 3.8 billion). Tourism revenues registered increases of 128.3% and 201.5% in January/March and April/June 2017, in order, after falling by 56.1% and 15.8% in July/September and October/December 2016.  The retreat in travel payments to only US$ 2.7 billion (from US$ 4.1 billion), on account of the decline in e-card payments abroad from US$ 2.5 billion to US$ 1.6 billion. In April/June 2017, travel payments noticeably declined by 53.3%, thereby registering US$ 550.2 million (versus US$ 1.2 billion) as a result of the 70.7% fall in e- card payments, to post US$ 226.9 million (against US$ 774.6 million).
3. 3  The slight decline in Suez canal receipts, to stand at US$ 4.9 billion (against US$ 5.1 billion). This came on the back of the fall in the value of SDR versus the US dollar by an average of 1.9%, notwithstanding the higher net tonnage of transiting vessels by 0.8%. 3. Investment Income Balance: Investment income balance ran a deficit of US$ 4.4 billion in FY 2016/2017, primarily because investment income payments registered US$ 4.9 billion (64.3% of which were profit transfers by oil and non-oil foreign companies operating in Egypt). In contrast, investment income receipts registered a modest figure of US$ 497.9 million. 4. Unrequited Current Transfers In FY 2016/2017, unrequited current transfers (net) inched up by 4.1%, to register US$ 17.5 billion (versus US$ 16.8 billion), due mainly to the increase in net private transfers from US$ 16.7 billion to US$ 17.3 billion, supported by the increase in workers’ remittances to US$ 17.5 billion (from US$ 17.1 billion a year earlier). It is worth noting that workers’ remittances increased in November/June 2016/2017(the period following the floatation of the pound) by US$ 1.4 billion, to US$ 12.8 billion (against US$ 11.4 billion in the corresponding period a year before) Second: Capital and Financial Account Registering a net inflow of US$ 29.0 billion in FY 2016/2017 (against US$ 21.2 billion), the capital and financial account signaled the growing confidence in the Egyptian economy, especially after initiating the economic reforms, mainly the liberalization of the EGP. Hereunder are the main developments in the capital and financial account that took place in FY 2016/2017, as compared to FY 2015/2016:  Total inflows of FDI in Egypt rose by 6.5% to US$ 13.3 billion (from US$ 12.5 billion), while total outflows recorded US$ 5.4 billion against US$ 5.6 billion. Accordingly, net inflows of FDI in Egypt
4. 4 rose to US $ 7.9 billion, against US$ 6.9 billion, as a direct result of the US$ 2.3 billion rise in net inflows for oil sector investments, to post US$ 4.0 billion (against US$ 1.7 billion).  Portfolio investment in Egypt augmented in FY 2016/2017 and unfolded, as such, a net inflow of US$ 16.0 billion (against a net outflow of US$ 1.3 billion). This was ascribed to the rise in foreigners' investments in Egyptian TBs, recording net purchases of US$ 10.0 billion. Moreover, the Egyptian government floated bonds in international markets, in the period following the liberalization of the exchange rate, where foreigners' investments accounted for US$ 6.8 billion. In addition, foreigners' investments on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) rose in FY 2016/2017, to register net purchases of US$ 497.3 million (against US$ 157.1 million).  Other assets and liabilities achieved a net outflow of US$ 2.5 billion (against a net inflow of US$ 8.5 billion). This came on the back of the rise in banks' foreign assets and foreign currency resources immediately after the liberalization of the exchange rate. As such, banks' foreign assets rose by US$ 9.5 billion, and their foreign liabilities by only US$ 1.4 billion.
5. Balance of Payments (US.$m.) 2015/16* 2016/17* Trade Balance Exports -38683.1 18704.6 -35435.1 21687.0 Petroleum Other Exports 5674.3 13030.3 -57387.7 6548.3 15138.7 -57122.1 -9293.6 -48094.1 6533.0 16079.3 9534.6 -11196.7 -45925.4 6811.1 16597.0 9108.1 5121.6 4945.3 Travel Government Receipts Other Payments Transportation Travel Government Expenditures Other Income Balance (net) Income receipts Income payments 3767.5 378.0 2399.2 9546.3 1339.1 4091.0 777.1 3339.1 -4471.7 396.9 4868.6 4379.7 776.4 2332.8 9785.9 1332.1 2739.9 1124.1 4589.8 -4423.0 497.9 4920.9 of which: Interest Paid 752.0 1143.5 16790.7 16689.2 17471.8 17322.8 17077.4 17453.0 101.5 -19831.1 149.0 -15575.2 Imports Petroleum Other Imports Services Balance (net) Receipts Transportation of which: Suez Canal dues Transfers Private Transfers (net) of which: Worker Remittances Official Transfers (net) Current Account Balance
6. Balance of Payments (cont.) (US.$m.) 2015/16* 2016/17* 21176.7 29034.2 -141.4 -113.3 21318.1 29147.5 -164.2 6932.6 192.1 -1286.8 -175.1 7915.8 208.4 15985.3 -1444.8 5491.5 15644.4 7102.7 5213.1 7735.3 -186.3 4133.4 Drawings 2523.4 6679.1 Repayments -2709.7 -2545.7 1505.3 1516.4 1560.7 1637.3 -55.4 -120.9 5783.7 2085.5 -3476.9 -12095.7 Central Bank -104.4 -27.5 Banks 2092.1 -9462.5 Other -5464.6 -2605.7 12018.6 9573.5 Central Bank 5857.7 8128.6 Banks 6160.9 1444.9 Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance -4158.6 258.2 -2813.0 13717.2 Change in CBE's reserve assets (increase = -) 2813.0 -13717.2 Capital & Financial Account Capital Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment In Egypt (net) Portfolio Investment Abroad(net) Portfolio Investment in Egypt (net) of which: Bonds Other Investment (net) Net Borrowing M&L Term Loans (net) MT Suppliers Credit (net) Drawings Repayments ST Suppliers Credit (net) Other Assets Other Liabilities * Preliminary.