Turkey: Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index - January 2018

Transcription

1. BUSINESS TENDENCY STATISTICS AND REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX JANUARY 2018 STATISTICS DEPARTMENT REAL SECTOR DATA DIVISION CONTENTS 1 BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY RESPONSES 2 REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX 2 .1 Real Sector Confidence Index 2.2 Real Sector Confidence Index-Seasonally Adjusted 3 BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY WEIGHTED AGGREGATED RESULTS 3.1 How has your production developed over the past 3 months? It has... 3.2 How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? It will... 3.3 Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be...? 3.4 How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 3.5 How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 3.6 How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 3.7 Do you consider your current overall order books to be...? 3.8 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? 3.9 Do you consider your current export order books to be...? 3.10 How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? (*) 3.11 Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production capacity is… (*) 3.12 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) 3.13 What main factors are currently limiting your production? Rank according to degree of importance. (% Share) (*) 3.14 How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 3.15 How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 3.16 How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 3.17 How do you expect your firm's total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will… 3.18 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? It will... 3.19 Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. 3.20 How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months? It has... 3.21 How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? It will... 3.22 How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... 3.23 How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... 3.24 What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months ? (Weighted Average) (%) 3.25 How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? It will... 3.26 How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) 3.27 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) 3.28 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). www.tcmb.gov.tr
2. Statistics Department Contents 1 . BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY RESPONSES RESPONSES PARTICIPANTS 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 2137 2118 2118 2119 2102 2017-11 2017-04 2143 2017-10 2017-03 2142 2017-08 2054 2017-07 2115 2017-06 2096 2017-05 2094 2017-02 1600 2017-01 1800 2103 2101 1400 1200 RESPONSES BY SECTORS SECTORS (Nace Rev.2) 10 Manufacture of food products Participants 269 19 JANUARY 2018 2018-01 2017-12 2017-09 1000 Responses 228 Response Rate (%) 84.8 18 94.7 100.0 11 Manufacture of beverages 12 Manufacture of tobacco products 5 5 13 Manufacture of textiles 333 259 77.8 14 Manufacture of wearing apparel 216 160 74.1 15 Manufacture of leather and related products 42 36 85.7 16 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture 47 41 87.2 17 Manufacture of paper and paper products 77 59 76.6 18 Printing and reproduction of recorded media 34 26 76.5 19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products 11 11 100.0 20 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 97 69 71.1 21 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations 23 18 78.3 22 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 156 118 75.6 23 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 303 241 79.5 24 Manufacture of basic metals 120 106 88.3 25 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 234 189 80.8 26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products 37 35 94.6 27 Manufacture of electrical equipment 121 98 81.0 28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. 201 160 79.6 29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 105 87 82.9 30 Manufacture of other transport equipment 35 29 82.9 31 Manufacture of furniture 65 47 72.3 32 Other manufacturing 54 47 87.0 33 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment Total 19 16 84.2 2623 2103 80.2 2
3. Statistics Department Contents 2 . REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX 2.1 Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) January 2007 - January 2018 R eel Sector Confidence I ndex Total amount of orders (Current situation) Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) (*) 2017 2018 Average Maximum Minumum January February March April May June July August September October November December January 104.0 121.0 52.6 97.1 105.9 108.9 111.2 109.2 112.4 109.5 110.7 111.6 109.5 106.3 103.3 108.3 84.5 100.4 26.9 84.8 92.1 92.7 97.2 98.2 99.1 100.4 99.0 99.5 98.8 98.5 97.8 96.0 95.4 117.0 78.6 94.4 100.6 100.4 95.0 94.0 98.6 99.1 97.6 99.2 97.3 98.7 98.9 98.9 Volume of output (Next 3 months) 118.3 161.5 48.8 104.3 124.7 129.5 125.2 116.9 116.6 115.8 118.0 120.0 119.0 112.6 97.7 110.6 Total employment (Next 3 months) 107.4 121.5 51.9 107.9 112.5 120.9 113.8 114.5 114.9 112.9 112.1 115.0 113.1 108.4 108.7 111.0 Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 106.7 134.1 33.1 98.3 89.9 98.5 117.6 124.8 130.2 112.6 114.7 118.0 116.8 106.7 113.5 112.4 Export orders (Next 3 months) 117.3 141.2 62.3 111.8 128.3 125.4 129.3 109.6 116.3 116.7 127.4 121.8 118.4 114.2 99.4 118.1 Fixed investment expenditure 105.3 128.7 47.1 101.6 105.1 108.7 110.5 111.0 112.2 113.3 112.6 111.4 112.0 114.5 111.6 117.8 97.0 124.8 29.1 73.8 93.9 95.3 101.3 104.8 111.4 105.1 104.5 107.9 100.5 96.5 99.0 101.8 General business situation 2.2 Real Sector Confience Index - Seasonally Adjusted (RSCI-SA) January 2007 - January 2018 2017 2018 Average Maximum Minumum January February March April May June July August September October November December January 104.0 117.0 59.8 100.6 106.2 106.5 106.3 104.8 108.8 107.7 110.2 111.2 112.2 109.8 109.2 110.9 Total amount of orders (Current situation) (**) 84.5 100.4 26.9 84.8 92.1 92.7 97.2 98.2 99.1 100.4 99.0 99.5 98.8 98.5 97.8 96.0 Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) (*) (**) 95.4 117.0 78.6 94.4 100.6 100.4 95.0 94.0 98.6 99.1 97.6 99.2 97.3 98.7 98.9 98.9 Volume of output (Next 3 months) 118.3 139.4 72.3 112.8 117.7 111.7 108.8 104.5 111.4 114.1 117.8 123.2 129.0 127.2 119.5 119.4 Total employment (Next 3 months) 107.4 119.3 60.0 112.1 113.2 118.1 108.0 110.0 110.5 110.9 113.0 115.1 116.1 113.6 114.7 114.4 Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 106.7 134.4 43.0 105.9 105.6 109.3 113.1 108.8 114.6 103.7 114.4 114.3 121.4 105.5 115.6 116.7 Export orders (Next 3 months) 117.3 132.7 75.2 119.0 121.5 115.8 116.6 106.9 112.6 115.1 122.4 118.6 122.5 123.6 116.5 122.5 105.3 128.7 47.1 101.6 105.1 108.7 110.5 111.0 112.2 113.3 112.6 111.4 112.0 114.5 111.6 117.8 97.0 124.8 29.1 73.8 93.9 95.3 101.3 104.8 111.4 105.1 104.5 107.9 100.5 96.5 99.0 101.8 R eel Sector Confidence I ndex Fixed investment expenditure General business situation (**) (**) (*) When the diffusion index of the amount of stock of finished goods is calculated, the signs of the responses are reversed. While an increase in the diffusion index points out a decrease in the amount of stocks, a decline in the diffusion index indicates a rise in the amount of stocks. (**) Since seasonality is not observed in the series of total amount of orders, amount of stocks of finished goods, fixed investment expenditure and general business situation, these variables are not seasonally adjusted. 3
4. Statistics Department Contents 3 . BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY WEIGHTED AGGREGATED RESULTS 3.1 How has your production developed over the past 3 months? It has... PRODUCTION - TREND OF LAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) % 49.4 16.6 17.3 50 2017-02 28.4 53.0 18.6 9.8 40 2017-03 21.8 59.5 18.7 3.1 30 2017-04 25.1 63.1 11.8 13.3 2017-05 35.0 58.7 6.3 28.7 2017-06 37.6 57.3 5.1 32.5 -10 2017-07 32.3 57.8 9.9 22.4 -20 2017-08 26.2 57.9 15.9 10.3 -30 2017-09 23.8 59.2 17.0 6.8 -40 2017-10 30.5 55.4 14.1 16.4 2017-11 34.7 52.7 12.6 22.1 2017-12 33.9 53.7 12.4 21.5 2018-01 32.2 53.9 13.9 18.3 20 10 0 -50 -60 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2018-06 2018-12 2018-06 2018-12 2017-06 2017-12 2016-12 2017-06 2017-06 2017-12 2016-06 2016-12 2016-12 2015-12 2016-06 2016-06 2015-06 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2008-06 -70 2010-12 Balance 33.9 2010-06 Decreased 2017-01 2009-12 Remained unchanged 2009-06 Increased 2008-12 Months 3.2 How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? It will... PRODUCTION - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) % 2017-01 18.6 67.1 14.3 4.3 50 2017-02 32.0 60.7 7.3 24.7 40 2017-03 36.1 57.3 6.6 29.5 30 2017-04 33.3 58.6 8.1 25.2 20 2017-05 30.0 56.9 13.1 16.9 2017-06 29.9 56.8 13.3 16.6 -10 2017-07 28.9 58.0 13.1 15.8 -20 2017-08 30.1 57.8 12.1 18.0 -30 2017-09 33.3 53.4 13.3 20.0 -40 2017-10 32.1 54.8 13.1 19.0 2017-11 27.5 57.6 14.9 12.6 2017-12 19.5 58.7 21.8 -2.3 2018-01 24.9 60.8 14.3 10.6 10 0 -50 -60 2015-12 2015-06 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2008-06 -70 2010-12 Balance 2010-06 Decrease 2009-12 Remained unchanged 2009-06 Increase 2008-12 Months 3.3 Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be...? 8.0 -0.4 85.6 4.7 5.0 2017-05 10.1 85.8 4.1 6.0 2017-06 7.4 86.6 6.0 1.4 2017-07 7.6 85.7 6.7 0.9 2017-08 6.6 89.2 4.2 2.4 2017-09 7.4 86.0 6.6 0.8 2017-10 7.0 88.7 4.3 2.7 2017-11 6.8 87.7 5.5 1.3 2017-12 6.9 87.3 5.8 1.1 2018-01 6.6 87.9 5.5 1.1 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2015-12 84.4 9.7 2015-06 7.6 2017-04 2014-12 2017-03 30 2014-06 -0.6 2013-12 8.4 2013-06 83.8 2012-12 7.8 2012-06 2017-02 CURRENT STOCK OF FINISHED PRODUCTS (Above Normal - Below Normal) % 2011-12 5.6 2011-06 6.2 2010-12 82.0 2010-06 11.8 2009-12 2017-01 Balance 2009-06 Below normal 2008-12 Normal for the season 2008-06 Above normal Months 4
5. Statistics Department Contents 3 .4 How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... OVERALL ORDERS - TREND OF LAST 3 MONTHS % (Increased - Decreased) 2017-01 23.5 51.3 25.2 -1.7 40 2017-02 18.4 53.1 28.5 -10.1 30 2017-03 21.8 54.9 23.3 -1.5 20 2017-04 32.0 53.6 14.4 17.6 10 2017-05 36.0 52.8 11.2 24.8 2017-06 37.4 55.4 7.2 30.2 2017-07 26.3 60.0 13.7 12.6 2017-08 29.0 56.7 14.3 14.7 -40 2017-09 33.1 51.8 15.1 18.0 -50 2017-10 31.7 53.4 14.9 16.8 -60 2017-11 26.0 54.7 19.3 6.7 -70 2017-12 31.3 50.9 17.8 13.5 2018-01 30.4 51.6 18.0 12.4 0 -10 -20 -30 2017-06 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2016-12 2017-06 2017-06 2016-06 2016-12 2016-12 2015-12 2016-06 2016-06 2015-06 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2008-06 -80 2010-12 Balance 2010-06 Decreased 2009-12 Remained unchanged 2009-06 Increased 2008-12 Months 3.5 How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... DOMESTIC ORDERS - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) % 2017-01 16.7 56.7 26.6 -9.9 40 2017-02 17.8 53.0 29.2 -11.4 30 2017-03 18.7 55.3 26.0 -7.3 20 2017-04 21.2 59.6 19.2 2.0 2017-05 29.4 55.6 15.0 14.4 2017-06 34.1 56.4 9.5 24.6 2017-07 27.9 60.9 11.2 16.7 -30 2017-08 29.0 58.4 12.6 16.4 -40 2017-09 33.6 51.8 14.6 19.0 -50 2017-10 33.5 52.8 13.7 19.8 -60 2017-11 22.5 60.0 17.5 5.0 -70 2017-12 26.1 56.1 17.8 8.3 2018-01 27.2 57.3 15.5 11.7 10 0 -10 -20 2015-12 2015-06 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2008-06 -80 2010-12 Balance 2010-06 Decreased 2009-12 Remained unchanged 2009-06 Increased 2008-12 Months 3.6 How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 40 20.1 3.1 30 14.2 11.5 20 59.3 11.2 18.3 10 26.5 59.0 14.5 12.0 2017-06 31.0 57.3 11.7 19.3 2017-07 22.4 56.9 20.7 1.7 2017-08 20.4 56.6 23.0 -2.6 2017-09 21.4 53.7 24.9 -3.5 -50 2017-10 27.8 56.6 15.6 12.2 -60 2017-11 27.7 53.7 18.6 9.1 -70 2017-12 24.7 58.0 17.3 7.4 -80 2018-01 24.0 58.6 17.4 6.6 0 -10 -20 -30 2015-12 -40 2015-06 2017-05 2014-12 29.5 2014-06 2017-04 2013-12 60.1 2013-06 56.7 25.7 2012-12 23.2 2017-03 2012-06 2017-02 (Increased - Decreased) 10.6 2011-12 17.0 2011-06 55.4 2010-12 27.6 EXPORT ORDERS - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS % 2010-06 2017-01 Balance 2009-12 Decreased 2009-06 Remained unchanged 2008-12 Increased 2008-06 Months 5
6. Statistics Department Contents 3 .7 Do you consider your current overall order books to be...? Below normal Balance % 10 TREND OF CURRENT OVERALL ORDERS (Above Normal - Below Normal) 2017-01 4.4 76.0 19.6 -15.2 2017-02 7.3 77.5 15.2 -7.9 2017-03 5.8 81.1 13.1 -7.3 2017-04 6.7 83.8 9.5 -2.8 2017-05 7.8 82.6 9.6 -1.8 2017-06 7.5 84.1 8.4 -0.9 -30 2017-07 8.3 83.8 7.9 0.4 -40 2017-08 6.9 85.2 7.9 -1.0 -50 2017-09 7.1 85.3 7.6 -0.5 -60 2017-10 6.8 85.2 8.0 -1.2 2017-11 5.8 86.9 7.3 -1.5 2017-12 6.2 85.4 8.4 -2.2 2018-01 4.9 86.2 8.9 -4.0 0 -10 -20 -70 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2018-06 2018-12 2018-06 2018-12 2017-06 2017-12 2016-12 2017-06 2017-06 2017-12 2016-06 2016-12 2016-12 2015-12 2016-06 2015-06 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2010-12 2010-06 2008-06 -80 2009-12 Normal for the season 2009-06 Above normal 2008-12 Months 3.8 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? Below normal Balance % 0 TREND OF CURRENT DOMESTIC ORDERS (Above Normal - Below Normal) 83.2 10.0 -3.2 2017-05 6.8 82.1 11.1 -4.3 2017-06 9.2 81.7 9.1 0.1 2017-07 7.1 84.3 8.6 -1.5 2017-08 5.2 86.8 8.0 -2.8 2017-09 8.6 82.3 9.1 -0.5 2017-10 7.0 85.3 7.7 -0.7 2017-11 6.8 85.2 8.0 -1.2 2017-12 5.8 86.2 8.0 -2.2 2018-01 5.0 84.3 10.7 -5.7 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 2015-12 6.8 2015-06 2017-04 -10 2014-12 -7.3 2014-06 -17.1 14.7 2013-12 23.4 77.9 2013-06 70.3 7.4 2012-12 6.3 2017-03 2012-06 2017-02 2011-12 -15.9 2011-06 19.7 2010-12 76.5 2010-06 3.8 2009-12 2017-01 2009-06 Normal for the season 2008-12 Above normal 2008-06 Months 3.9 Do you consider your current export order books to be...? TREND OF CURRENT STOK OF FINISHED PRODUCTS (Above Normal - Below Normal) % 2017-01 5.2 76.8 18.0 -12.8 2017-02 6.6 78.0 15.4 -8.8 2017-03 7.1 80.5 12.4 -5.3 -10 2017-04 8.1 81.7 10.2 -2.1 -20 2017-05 7.4 81.1 11.5 -4.1 2017-06 8.2 78.5 13.3 -5.1 2017-07 8.2 81.6 10.2 -2.0 -40 2017-08 7.6 83.1 9.3 -1.7 -50 2017-09 6.1 85.3 8.6 -2.5 -60 2017-10 5.1 84.8 10.1 -5.0 2017-11 6.2 84.0 9.8 -3.6 2017-12 7.0 83.2 9.8 -2.8 2018-01 4.5 86.1 9.4 -4.9 0 -30 -70 2016-06 2015-12 2015-06 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2010-12 -80 2010-06 Balance 2009-12 Below normal 2009-06 Normal for the season 2008-12 Above normal 2008-06 Months 6
7. Statistics Department Contents 3 .10 How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? (*) Months Weighted average PRODUCTION PERIOD Months 2017-01 3.3 6 2017-04 3.5 5 2017-07 3.6 2017-10 3.5 2018-01 3.6 (Weighted Average) 4 3 2 1 2018-10 2018-04 2017-10 2017-04 2016-10 2016-04 2015-10 2015-04 2014-10 2014-04 2013-10 2013-04 2012-10 2012-04 2011-10 2011-04 2010-10 2010-04 2009-10 2009-04 2008-10 2008-04 0 3.11 Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production capacity is… (*) More than sufficient Sufficient 2017-01 12.3 79.6 8.1 4.2 2017-04 6.9 84.5 8.6 -1.7 2017-07 8.2 86.9 4.9 3.3 2017-10 5.5 89.0 5.5 0.0 2018-01 6.0 88.0 6.0 0.0 Months Not sufficient Balance CURRENT PRODUCTION CAPACITY (More than sufficient - Sufficient) % 15 10 5 0 -5 2018-10 2018-04 2017-10 2017-04 2016-10 2016-04 2015-10 2015-04 2014-10 2014-04 2013-10 2013-04 2012-10 2012-04 2011-10 2011-04 2010-10 2010-04 2009-10 2009-04 2008-10 2008-04 -10 3.12 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) 78.2 3.13 What main factors are currently limiting your production? Rank according to degree of importance. (% Share) (*) 2017 a. None b. Insufficient demand c. Shortage of labour force d. Shortage of material and/or equipment e. Financial constraints f. Others January 48.1 22.7 7.8 8.8 7.8 4.8 April 52.0 17.8 8.1 8.1 7.3 6.7 July 60.3 14.2 7.0 7.7 6.6 4.2 October 59.4 14.6 6.9 7.5 6.7 4.9 2018 January 52.5 16.9 7.6 8.4 7.2 7.4 FACTORS LIMITING THE PRODUCTION Insufficient demand 16.9% No Limiting Factors 52.5% (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). Others 7.4% Shortage of labour force 7.6% Shortage of material and/or equipment 8.4% Financial constraints 7.2% 7 2018-12 2018-01 50 2018-06 79.0 2017-12 79.9 2017-12 2017-06 2017-11 60 2016-12 79.7 2016-06 79.0 2017-10 2015-12 2017-09 70 2015-06 78.8 2014-12 78.7 2017-08 2014-06 2017-07 80 2013-12 79.0 2013-06 78.8 2017-06 2012-12 2017-05 90 2012-06 78.4 2011-12 76.7 2017-04 2011-06 2017-03 100 2010-12 76.8 2010-06 2017-02 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (%) (Weighted Average) % 2009-12 77.0 2009-06 2017-01 2008-12 Weighted average 2008-06 Months
8. Statistics Department Contents 3 .14 How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... OVERALL ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) % 2017-01 25.5 59.8 14.7 10.8 60 2017-02 35.0 56.3 8.7 26.3 50 2017-03 39.5 54.0 6.5 33.0 40 2017-04 44.6 47.1 8.3 36.3 30 2017-05 37.7 48.1 14.2 23.5 2017-06 34.0 52.3 13.7 20.3 2017-07 33.7 56.3 10.0 23.7 -10 2017-08 30.6 57.3 12.1 18.5 -20 2017-09 29.9 55.6 14.5 15.4 -30 2017-10 36.0 51.6 12.4 23.6 -40 2017-11 25.9 56.9 17.2 8.7 -50 2017-12 21.4 55.8 22.8 -1.4 2018-01 29.2 56.1 14.7 14.5 20 10 0 2016-12 2017-06 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2017-06 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2017-06 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2016-06 2016-12 2016-12 2015-12 2015-06 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2008-06 -60 2010-12 Balance 2010-06 Decrease 2009-12 Remain unchanged 2009-06 Increase 2008-12 Months 3.15 How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? They will... DOMESTIC ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) % 2017-01 20.5 55.3 24.2 -3.7 60 2017-02 32.0 56.0 12.0 20.0 50 2017-03 37.1 55.1 7.8 29.3 40 2017-04 40.4 52.2 7.4 33.0 30 2017-05 34.0 53.3 12.7 21.3 2017-06 32.0 53.9 14.1 17.9 2017-07 32.0 56.7 11.3 20.7 -10 2017-08 28.3 63.4 8.3 20.0 -20 2017-09 31.9 51.5 16.6 15.3 -30 2017-10 29.5 54.3 16.2 13.3 -40 2017-11 24.7 56.7 18.6 6.1 -50 2017-12 17.5 57.7 24.8 -7.3 2018-01 25.0 59.8 15.2 9.8 20 10 0 2016-06 2015-12 2015-06 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2008-06 -60 2010-12 Balance 2010-06 Decrease 2009-12 Remain unchanged 2009-06 Increase 2008-12 Months 3.16 How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... Balance EXPORT ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS % 2017-01 24.1 63.6 12.3 11.8 2017-02 35.3 57.7 7.0 28.3 2017-03 32.0 61.4 6.6 25.4 40 2017-04 36.9 55.5 7.6 29.3 30 2017-05 25.3 59.0 15.7 9.6 20 2017-06 32.6 51.1 16.3 16.3 2017-07 28.1 60.5 11.4 16.7 2017-08 35.4 56.6 8.0 27.4 2017-09 27.9 66.0 6.1 21.8 -30 2017-10 31.7 55.0 13.3 18.4 -40 2017-11 25.3 63.6 11.1 14.2 -50 2017-12 19.4 60.6 20.0 -0.6 2018-01 26.3 65.5 8.2 18.1 (Increase - Decrease) 60 50 10 0 -10 -20 2016-06 2015-12 2015-06 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2010-12 2010-06 -60 2009-12 Decrease 2009-06 Remain unchanged 2008-12 Increase 2008-06 Months 8
9. Statistics Department Contents 3 .17 How do you expect your firm's total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will… TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS % (Increase-Decrease) 2017-01 14.7 78.5 6.8 7.9 2017-02 17.8 76.9 5.3 12.5 2017-03 25.0 70.9 4.1 20.9 20 2017-04 18.2 77.4 4.4 13.8 10 2017-05 17.6 79.3 3.1 14.5 0 2017-06 17.9 79.1 3.0 14.9 -10 2017-07 15.7 81.5 2.8 12.9 -20 2017-08 15.9 80.3 3.8 12.1 -30 2017-09 18.1 78.8 3.1 15.0 -40 2017-10 16.9 79.3 3.8 13.1 -50 2017-11 13.8 80.8 5.4 8.4 -60 2017-12 13.6 81.5 4.9 8.7 2018-01 14.4 82.2 3.4 11.0 40 30 2018-12 2018-06 2017-12 2017-06 2016-12 2016-06 2015-12 2015-06 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2008-06 -70 2010-12 Balance 2010-06 Decrease 2009-12 Remained unchanged 2009-06 Increase 2008-12 Months 3.18 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? It will... % 2017-01 20.0 61.6 18.4 1.6 40 2017-02 20.3 64.5 15.2 5.1 30 2017-03 23.7 61.3 15.0 8.7 20 2017-04 24.4 61.7 13.9 10.5 10 2017-05 25.1 60.8 14.1 11.0 0 2017-06 25.1 62.0 12.9 12.2 -10 2017-07 25.5 62.3 12.2 13.3 -20 2017-08 24.7 63.2 12.1 12.6 -30 2017-09 25.7 60.0 14.3 11.4 -40 2017-10 24.7 62.6 12.7 12.0 2017-11 25.5 63.5 11.0 14.5 2017-12 24.7 62.2 13.1 11.6 2018-01 28.2 61.4 10.4 17.8 FIXED INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 12 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) -50 -60 2015-06 2015-12 2016-06 2016-12 2017-06 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2015-06 2015-12 2016-06 2016-12 2017-06 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2008-06 -70 2010-12 Balance 2010-06 Decrease 2009-12 Remain unchanged 2009-06 Increase 2008-12 Months 3.19 Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. Balance GENERAL COURSE OF BUSINESS % (More Optimistic - More Pessimistic) 2017-01 4.2 65.4 30.4 -26.2 40 2017-02 9.3 75.3 15.4 -6.1 30 2017-03 12.8 69.7 17.5 -4.7 20 2017-04 13.3 74.7 12.0 1.3 10 2017-05 14.1 76.6 9.3 4.8 0 2017-06 19.1 73.2 7.7 11.4 -10 2017-07 13.9 77.3 8.8 5.1 -20 2017-08 11.3 81.9 6.8 4.5 -30 2017-09 15.0 77.9 7.1 7.9 2017-10 11.7 77.1 11.2 0.5 2017-11 9.8 76.9 13.3 -3.5 2017-12 11.1 76.8 12.1 -1.0 2018-01 10.9 80.0 9.1 1.8 -40 -50 -60 2014-12 2014-06 2013-12 2013-06 2012-12 2012-06 2011-12 2011-06 2010-12 2010-06 -70 2009-12 More pessimistic 2009-06 Remain unchanged 2008-12 More optimistic 2008-06 Months 9
10. Statistics Department Contents 3 .20 How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months? It has... 60.3 5.7 28.3 33.1 57.9 9.0 24.1 2017-08 34.3 60.3 5.4 28.9 2017-09 45.4 51.4 3.2 42.2 2017-10 49.6 45.6 4.8 44.8 2017-11 50.7 46.2 3.1 47.6 2017-12 56.5 41.2 2.3 54.2 2018-01 54.9 43.0 2.1 52.8 40 30 20 10 0 2018-12 34.0 2017-07 2018-06 2017-06 50 2017-12 38.7 2017-06 3.9 2016-12 53.5 2016-06 42.6 2016-12 2017-05 60 2015-12 45.0 2016-06 51.2 2.9 2015-06 4.6 49.2 2014-12 39.6 47.9 2014-06 55.8 2017-04 2013-12 2017-03 70 2013-06 56.8 2012-12 55.4 2.3 2012-06 2.8 38.6 2011-12 39.0 59.1 2011-06 58.2 2017-02 2010-12 2017-01 AVERAGE UNIT COST - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) % 2010-06 Balance 2009-12 Decreased 2009-06 Remained unchanged 2008-12 Increased 2008-06 Months 3.21 How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? It will... Decrease Balance AVERAGE UNIT COST - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS % (Increase - Decrease) 32.0 62.0 6.0 26.0 2017-06 26.5 66.0 7.5 19.0 2017-07 34.1 58.7 7.2 26.9 2017-08 32.9 61.6 5.5 27.4 2017-09 36.5 59.3 4.2 32.3 2017-10 39.9 56.0 4.1 35.8 2017-11 48.0 49.9 2.1 45.9 2017-12 50.7 47.3 2.0 48.7 2018-01 43.0 55.3 1.7 41.3 40 30 20 10 0 2018-12 2017-05 50 2018-06 32.6 2017-12 5.3 2017-06 56.8 2015-12 37.9 2015-06 2017-04 60 2014-12 36.1 2014-06 40.5 4.9 2013-12 4.5 54.1 2013-06 50.5 41.0 2012-12 45.0 2017-03 2012-06 2017-02 70 2011-12 51.2 2011-06 2.6 2010-12 43.6 2010-06 53.8 2009-12 2017-01 2009-06 Remain unchanged 2008-12 Increase 2008-06 Months 3.22 How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... 24.0 70.2 5.8 18.2 2017-08 27.9 68.5 3.6 24.3 2017-09 26.2 69.4 4.4 21.8 2017-10 28.7 66.5 4.8 23.9 2017-11 34.1 62.2 3.7 30.4 2017-12 35.8 60.4 3.8 32.0 2018-01 37.1 59.4 3.5 33.6 10 0 -10 -20 2018-12 2017-07 20 2018-12 14.0 2018-06 6.9 2018-06 72.2 2017-12 20.9 2017-12 2017-06 30 2017-06 21.8 2017-06 23.2 5.9 2016-12 5.2 66.4 2016-06 66.4 27.7 2016-12 28.4 2017-05 2016-06 2017-04 40 2015-12 29.5 2015-06 34.8 4.8 2014-12 4.0 60.9 2014-06 57.2 34.3 2013-12 38.8 2017-03 2013-06 2017-02 (Increased - Decreased) 2012-12 38.7 2012-06 4.2 2011-12 52.9 2011-06 42.9 50 2010-12 2017-01 DOMESTIC MARKET SELLING PRICES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS % 2010-06 Balance 2009-12 Decrease 2009-06 Remain unchanged 2008-12 Increase 2008-06 Months 3.23 How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... Decrease Balance SELLING PRICES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS % (Increase - Decrease) 68.5 4.2 23.1 26.0 69.2 4.8 21.2 2017-06 21.0 72.5 6.5 14.5 2017-07 24.4 70.2 5.4 19.0 2017-08 28.5 67.8 3.7 24.8 2017-09 26.4 67.7 5.9 20.5 2017-10 30.9 64.4 4.7 26.2 2017-11 30.9 65.2 3.9 27.0 2017-12 35.4 61.0 3.6 31.8 2018-01 37.6 59.2 3.2 34.4 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2015-12 27.3 2017-05 2015-06 2017-04 40 2014-12 29.1 2014-06 35.0 4.6 2013-12 3.7 61.7 2013-06 57.6 33.7 2012-12 38.7 2017-03 2012-06 2017-02 50 2011-12 36.0 2011-06 4.2 2010-12 55.6 2010-06 40.2 2009-12 2017-01 2009-06 Remained unchanged 2008-12 Increase 2008-06 Months 10
11. Statistics Department Contents 3 .24 What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months ? (Weighted Average) (%) Weighted average 11.5 3.25 How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? It will... 63.1 5.3 26.3 2017-06 21.2 71.7 7.1 14.1 2017-07 27.8 66.5 5.7 22.1 2017-08 19.7 72.9 7.4 12.3 2017-09 17.7 73.6 8.7 9.0 2017-10 32.1 63.3 4.6 27.5 2017-11 36.2 61.6 2.2 34.0 2017-12 38.0 57.8 4.2 33.8 2018-01 24.5 72.6 2.9 21.6 20 0 -20 -40 -60 11 2018-12 31.6 2018-06 2017-05 40 2017-12 27.5 2017-06 5.6 2016-12 61.3 2016-06 33.1 2015-12 27.5 2017-04 2015-06 33.2 5.6 2014-12 5.3 61.3 2014-06 56.2 33.1 2013-12 38.5 2017-03 2013-06 2017-02 (Increase - Decrease) 60 2012-12 47.1 2012-06 3.9 2011-12 45.1 2011-06 51.0 2010-12 2017-01 CREDIT INTEREST RATE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 MONTHS % 2010-06 Balance 2009-12 Decrease 2009-06 Remain unchanged 2008-12 Increase 2008-06 Months 2018-12 2018-01 6 2018-06 11.9 2017-12 11.4 2017-12 2017-06 2017-11 7 2016-12 11.1 2016-06 2017-10 8 2015-12 10.8 2015-06 2017-09 9 2014-12 10.7 2014-06 10.5 2017-08 2013-12 2017-07 10 2013-06 10.5 2012-12 10.5 2017-06 2012-06 2017-05 11 2011-12 10.2 2011-06 2017-04 12 2010-12 9.6 2010-06 9.0 2017-03 2009-12 2017-02 (Weighted Average) 13 2009-06 8.7 2008-12 2017-01 INFLATION RATE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS (%) % 2008-06 Months
12. Statistics Department Contents 3 .26 How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? It has… Months Improved Remained unchanged Deteriorated Balance % 2017-01 8.7 79.1 12.2 -3.5 20 2017-04 7.4 87.2 5.4 2.0 10 2017-07 8.9 87.4 3.7 5.2 2017-10 10.7 82.4 6.9 3.8 2018-01 12.8 81.8 5.4 7.4 (*) COMPETITIVE POSITION ON DOMESTIC MARKET (Improved - Deteriorated) 0 -10 2017-04 2017-10 2018-04 2017-10 2018-04 2018-10 2016-10 2017-04 2016-04 2016-10 2015-10 2015-04 2014-10 2014-04 2013-10 2013-04 2012-10 2012-04 2011-10 2011-04 2010-10 2010-04 2009-10 2009-04 2008-10 2008-04 -20 3.27 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) Months Improved Remained unchanged Deteriorated Balance COMPETITIVE POSITION ON FOREIGN MARKETS INSIDE THE EU (Improved - Deteriorated) % 20 2017-01 10.2 79.7 10.1 0.1 2017-04 6.8 86.5 6.7 0.1 2017-07 6.3 86.4 7.3 -1.0 2017-10 7.7 83.3 9.0 -1.3 2018-01 8.1 87.4 4.5 3.6 10 0 -10 2018-10 2016-04 2015-10 2015-04 2014-10 2014-04 2013-10 2013-04 2012-10 2012-04 2011-10 2011-04 2010-10 2010-04 2009-10 2009-04 2008-10 2008-04 -20 3.28 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) Months Improved Remained unchanged Deteriorated Balance 2017-01 10.8 80.6 8.6 2.2 2017-04 6.7 86.8 6.5 0.2 COMPETITIVE POSITION ON FOREIGN MARKETS OUTSIDE THE EU (Improved - Deteriorated) % 20 2017-07 6.9 84.7 8.4 -1.5 2017-10 7.9 85.7 6.4 1.5 2018-01 11.3 84.1 4.6 6.7 10 0 -10 (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). 12 2018-10 2018-04 2017-10 2017-04 2016-10 2016-04 2015-10 2015-04 2014-10 2014-04 2013-10 2013-04 2012-10 2012-04 2011-10 2011-04 2010-10 2010-04 2009-10 2009-04 2008-10 2008-04 -20