Qatar: Weekly Market Report

Transcription

1. ` QSE Index and Volume Regional Indices Qatar (QSE)* Dubai# Abu Dhabi# Saudi Arabia# Kuwait# Oman Bahrain# Close WTD% MTD% YTD% 8,360.77 3,632.54 4,455.09 7,319.84 (0.6) (0.7) (0.6) (0.7) (5.0) (0.1) (0.3) 0.8 (19.9) 2.9 (2.0) 1.5 6,849.11 5,100.44 1,307.95 (0.9) 2.0 0.3 (0.6) 0.9 0.4 19.2 (11.8) 7.2 10,000,000 8,289.23 8,278.76 8,200 0 17-Sep 18-Sep 19-Sep 20-Sep Volume Market Indicators Value Traded (QR mn) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) QSE Index Week ended Sep 21 , 2017 1,057.7 Week ended Sep 14, 2017 1,253.4 456,424.4 458,862.5 58.5 58.3 0.3 12,122 15,360 (21.1) 44 43 2.3 19:23 11:29 – Volume (mn) Number of Transactions Companies Traded Market Breadth Market Indices Total Return ALL Share Index Banks and Financial Services Industrials Transportation Real Estate Insurance Telecoms Consumer Goods & Services Al Rayan Islamic Index Market Indices Weekly Index Performance 3.0% 2.0% 21-Sep Close 14,020.51 2,381.41 2,618.88 2,543.21 1,746.92 1,783.61 3,568.89 1,012.67 5,020.94 3,369.56 WTD% (0.6) (0.8) (0.5) 0.1 (1.0) (1.0) (5.3) 0.4 (0.8) (0.5) MTD% (5.0) (4.6) (3.7) (4.7) (9.3) (3.1) (9.8) (5.6) (2.3) (3.6) Chg. % (15.6) (0.5) YTD% (17.0) (17.0) (10.1) (23.1) (31.4) (20.5) (19.5) (16.0) (14.9) (13.2) 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% (1.0%) Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) 285.01 216.19 165.88 5,378.61 342.19 83.03 60.11 Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) 125,334.1 105,443.0# 116,842.5 460,010.5 100,858.9 20,869.5 21,481.1 TTM P/E** 14.4 24.1 16.4 17.9 18.1 11.8 7.7 Kuwait (0.6%) (0.6%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.9%) Saudi Arabia Foreign institutions remained bearish with net selling of QR84.0mn vs. net selling of QR112.7mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR56.4mn vs. net buying of QR32.6mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bullish with net buying of QR8.0mn vs. net buying of QR1.9mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bullish with net buying of QR19.6mn vs. net buying of QR78.2mn the week before. In 2017 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$639mn worth of equities. 8,300 Dubai Trading volume increased by 0.26% to reach 58.5mn shares versus 58.3mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions declined by 21.1% to reach 12,122 transactions versus 15,360 transactions in the prior week. The Industrials sector led the trading volume, accounting for 30.6%, followed by the Banks and Financial Services sector which accounted for 29.7% of the overall trading volume. IGRD was the top volume traded stock during the week with 13.8mn shares. 8,360.77 8,348.05 Abu Dhabi Trading value during the week decreased by 15.6% to reach QR1.06bn versus QR1.25bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 39.7% of the total trading value. The Industrials sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 27.7% of the total trading value. QNB Group (QNBK) was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR165.9mn. 20,000,000 8,375.18 Qatar (QSE)* Qatar Insurance Co. (QATI), Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) and Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS) were the primary contributors to the weekly index decrease. QATI was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly decline, erasing 40.3 points from the index. QIBK was the second biggest contributor to the decrease, shaving off 9.7 points from the index. Moreover, QEWS deleted 7.0 points from the index. Alternatively, Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES) contributed positively to the index, adding 11.7 points to the index. 8,400 Bahrain The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index decreased by 48.71 points or 0.58% during the trading week to close at 8,360.77. Market capitalization decreased by 0.53% to QR456.42 billion (bn) versus QR QR458.86bn at the end of the previous trading week. Of the 45 listed companies, 19 companies ended the week higher, while 23 declined and 3 remained unchanged. Investment Holding Group (IGRD) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 10.8% on 13.8 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Qatar Insurance Co. (QATI) was the worst performing stock for the week with a decline of 7.1% on 177,087 shares traded. Oman Market Review and Outlook P/B** Dividend Yield 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.7 4.1 3.9 4.6 3.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 5.3 5.2 6.0 # Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; Data as of September 20, 2017) Page 1 of 6
2. News Economic & Corporate News  Blockade not to influence QNB Group’s growth target – QNB Group has made it clear that the ongoing stand-off in the region has not diluted its growth targets. QNB Group’s CEO, Ali Ahmed Al Kuwari said, “Qatari economy is very strong, the banking system is solid. We have maintained our positions and are looking to our growth targets. QNB Group has not adjusted any of its strategies or aspirations.” Al Kuwari said that the bank sees opportunities coming from the ongoing conflict. These opportunities will help reposition Qatar as a very good strong trading hub. (Peninsula Qatar)  QNB Group successfully completes Formosa bond issuance – QNB Group announced the successful completion of a Formosa bond issuance under its Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) program in the Taiwanese capital markets. Under this program, a $630mn tranche was issued on September 13, with a maturity of 30 years, callable every five years, carrying an ‘attractive’ fixed coupon rate of 5% per annum. QNB Group said, “The Reg S issue attracted strong interest from Taiwanese investors and was arranged by Standard Chartered Bank. This success confirms the trust of international investors in QNB Group’s strategy and the strength of its financial position.” (Gulf-Times.com)  QATI announces it has not been possible to renew the business license for branch in Abu Dhabi – Qatar Insurance Company (QATI) announced that due to the prevailing political events in the region, it was not possible to renew the business license for the company's branch in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, UAE. The company will have to close the branch, which has been engaged in insurance business since 2002 and its underwriting gross premium in this market with an estimated figure of around QR110mn per year. (QSE)  QATI looking to expand into new countries amid Saudi Arabialed siege – Qatar Insurance Company (QATI), is focusing on new countries to offset the impact of the Saudi Arabia-led campaign to isolate Qatar, according to a senior executive. QATI’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s Chief Executive Officer, Salem Khalaf Al Mannai said, “The spat has made us focus on new markets like Oman. In the past three months we have secured business in Oman that is equivalent to our Abu Dhabi business.” (Gulf-Times.com)  Ooredoo announces closure of delisting of Ooredoo GDR from the London Stock Exchange – Ooredoo announced that the delisting process of Ooredoo GDR (Global Depositary Receipt) from the London Stock Exchange has closed effective from August 31, 2017. The primary reason for the delisting was that international investors are now easily able to purchase Ooredoo securities on the Qatar Stock Exchange. Ooredoo GDR was admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange on July 1999. (QSE)  Qatar flooded banks with QR29.1bn in August to offset outflows – Qatar pumped QR29.1bn into its banking system in August, to cushion it from withdrawals by financial institutions from neighboring Arab states due to the Gulf’s diplomatic crisis, Qatar’s central bank’s data showed. Total deposits at Qatari banks rose to QR793.6bn in August compared to QR772.5bn in July as public sector deposits climbed to QR302.6bn, up from QR273.5bn in July, the data showed. (Reuters)  BMI: Funding pressures on Qatari banks due to GCC crisis manageable – Funding pressures within the Qatari banking system resulting from the ongoing Gulf diplomatic crisis will remain manageable, as local lenders retain extra-regional investor confidence and continue to benefit from strong sovereign support, according to BMI Research. Qatari lenders’ loan growth will remain robust over the coming years, driven by large scale public investments into infrastructure, BMI Research noted. Qatari banks are facing funding pressures as a result of the outflow of non-resident deposits sparked by the ongoing diplomatic crisis in the GCC region, it stated. BMI Research noted, “We nevertheless expect these pressures to remain manageable, as Qatari banks retain the ability to attract funding from a variety of extra-regional sources, and as the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) remains both willing and able to intervene to protect liquidity.” (Gulf-Times.com)  Mwani Qatar shows 78% rise in cargo volume in August – Qatar Ports Management Authority (Mwani Qatar) has cleared 142,854 tons of general cargo in August 2017 compared to 80,275 tons in July 2017, showing a growth of 78%. According to recent figures released by Mwani Qatar, the Authority handled 67,603 standard containers in August 2017. Mwani Qatar also handled 4,870 vehicles, 58,895 heads of livestock and 23,482 tons of aggregate in August 2017. In total, Mwani Qatar cleared 254,234 tons of general cargo in the last three months (June, July, Aug 2017) while during the same period, Mwani Qatar handled around 140,490 standard containers. (Peninsula Qatar)  Hamad Port begins two new shipping lines – Hamad Port’s Director, Abdul Aziz Nasser Al Yafei announced the inauguration of two new shipping routes linking the Hamad Port to the Southeast Asia ports, while the other connects the port to the ports of the countries of the Mediterranean basin, and each will take one trip a week during 21 days. (Peninsula Qatar)  Oman emerges as ‘a trans-shipment hub for Qatar’ – Oman has emerged as the regional trans-shipment hub for Qatar since the start of the Saudi Arabia-led siege, Arabital Shipping Qatar’s Director, Ibrahim Mohamed Rafi said. He said, “Oman’s Sohar and Salalah ports have replaced the port of Jebel Ali in Dubai as the trans-shipment hub for Qatar. The majority of cargo shipments bound for Qatar used to move through Jebel Ali before the GCC crisis started, but Qatar has swiftly established new routes to cope with the trade disruption caused by the crisis.” Besides the ports in Oman, direct services have also been launched from Hamad Port to India, Pakistan and Kuwait, among many other countries, he said. “Currently, food items are coming into the country through Ruwais Port. This is via a land route from Turkey to Bushehr Port in Iran and then by sea to Ruwais Port,” Rafi, who is a civil engineer by profession, explained. (Gulf-Times.com) Page 2 of 6
3. Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners 0 .0% 12.0% 10.8% -3.0% 8.0% 6.8% 6.1% -3.0% -2.9% Qatar & Oman Investment Medicare Group -4.4% 4.8% -5.1% 4.0% 3.4% -6.0% -7.1% -9.0% 0.0% Investment Holding group Gulf International Services Islamic Holding Group Dlala Holding Qatar Insurance Widam Food Co. Gulf Warehousing Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) 180.0 Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) 165.9 15.0 13.8 12.8 120.0 105.1 10.0 104.6 9.3 94.8 5.6 61.8 60.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 QNB Group Vodafone Qatar Investment Holding group Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded 14.54% 6.56% 80% 60% 36.57% 42.33% Ezdan Real Estate Doha Bank 22.48% Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) (76) Non-Qatari 299 5.80% 223 31.23% 40% 20% Vodafone Qatar Qatar First Bank Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 100% Investment Holding group Qatar Electricity Qatar First Bank and Water 76 40.48% Qatari 759 835 0% Buy Sell Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) (200) - 200 Net Investment 400 Total Sold 600 800 1,000 Total Bought Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Page 3 of 6
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source : Bloomberg The Index closed down by 0.58% from the week before to 8,360.77. The RSI reached the oversold area which increases the odds for a bounce. The 8,000 is our main support level, while the resistance level remains around the 10,000 mark. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 4 of 6
5. Com pany Nam e Price Septem ber 21 % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield 123.30 (0.32) (16.74) 113,885 9.1 1.8 Qatar Islamic Bank 89.50 (1.65) (13.86) 21,148 10.2 1.5 5.3 Commercial Bank of Qatar 30.80 0.33 (0.49) 12,466 294.7 0.7 N/A Doha Bank 30.40 (1.27) (9.79) 9,425 9.7 0.9 9.5 Al Ahli Bank 29.25 (2.82) (21.25) 5,860 9.1 1.2 3.3 Qatar International Islamic Bank 51.54 1.96 (17.93) 7,802 9.7 1.4 7.8 Masraf Al Rayan 36.81 (0.49) (2.10) 27,608 13.5 2.3 5.4 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 12.00 0.08 (29.41) 4,320 10.1 0.6 6.3 Qatar First Bank 6.69 0.60 (35.05) 1,338 N/A 0.8 N/A National Leasing 12.23 (2.55) (20.17) 605 N/A 0.6 4.1 Dlala Holding 17.10 4.84 (20.43) 486 29.0 2.0 N/A (3.01) (19.10) 254 23.0 0.9 6.2 6.08 (25.90) 256 66.3 1.9 2.2 Qatar National Bank Qatar & Oman Investment 8.05 Islamic Holding Group Banking and Financial Services 45.20 Zad Holding 70.00 Qatar German Co. f or Medical Devices Salam International Investment 205,452 (2.64) (21.52) 916 8.9 1.0 6.4 7.55 0.00 (25.25) 87 N/A 1.2 N/A (28.42) 7.91 (0.75) Medicare Group 68.44 (2.91) 8.81 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 25.00 0.00 Qatar Fuel 2.6 101.45 (0.54) 904 10.7 0.6 10.1 1,926 28.6 2.0 2.6 (8.93) 157 59.6 1.2 4.0 (23.95) 10,087 14.1 1.5 6.3 Widam Food Co. 64.00 3.39 (5.88) 1,152 N/A 3.9 5.5 Mannai Corp. 64.41 0.09 (19.49) 2,938 6.1 1.1 6.2 (2.30) (15.38) 2,970 14.9 2.4 6.1 Al Meera Consumer Goods Consum er Goods and Services 148.50 21,137 Qatar Industrial Manuf acturing 40.15 (4.40) (9.78) 1,908 9.1 1.3 7.5 Qatar National Cement 64.00 (2.29) (18.14) 4,183 10.7 1.4 5.7 Industries Qatar 90.00 1.12 (23.40) 54,450 21.0 1.7 4.4 Qatari Investors Group 37.90 (0.26) (35.21) 4,712 17.4 1.8 2.6 178.79 (1.76) (21.24) 19,667 12.6 2.4 4.2 8.48 (1.51) (37.78) 5,342 12.0 0.7 7.1 Qatar Electricity and Water Aamal Gulf International Services 18.27 6.84 (41.25) 3,395 N/A 0.9 5.5 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 13.10 0.77 (17.09) 16,458 16.9 1.2 4.6 7.93 10.75 N/A 658 N/A 0.8 3.8 Invesment Holding Group Industrials 110,773 Qatar Insurance Doha Insurance 57.11 (7.14) (22.55) 15,837 16.4 1.6 2.3 14.01 0.00 (23.02) 701 8.2 0.7 4.3 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 37.90 1.09 (19.36) 3,317 19.2 0.5 4.0 Al Khaleej Takaf ul Insurance 15.00 (1.32) (28.91) 383 25.8 0.7 4.0 Qatar Islamic Insurance Insurance 55.00 3.05 825 12.9 2.5 6.4 United Development 14.97 (2.03) Barw a Real Estate 31.90 2.90 Ezdan Real Estate 10.66 8.70 21,062 (27.51) 5,301 9.2 0.5 8.4 (4.06) 12,413 9.4 0.7 7.8 (2.65) (29.45) 28,276 13.7 1.0 4.7 9.99 2.99 (27.11) 1,156 42.7 0.8 N/A 81.66 0.23 (19.78) 26,157 14.3 1.2 4.3 8.30 0.97 (11.42) 7,017 N/A 1.5 N/A Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 54.17 0.30 (43.34) 6,204 14.4 0.5 6.5 Gulf Warehousing Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 45.51 (5.07) (18.73) 2,667 12.7 1.7 3.5 15.90 (0.63) (31.14) 8,809 10.2 1.7 6.3 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development Real Estate Ooredoo Vodaf one Qatar Telecom s Transportation Qatar Exchange 47,146 33,174 17,680 456,424 Source: Bloomberg Page 5 of 6
6. Contacts Saugata Sarkar , CFA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025 mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 6