Technical Analysis Boursa Kuwait - 25 December

Transcription

1. KAMCO Research Technical Analysis – Boursa Kuwait 25-December-2017 8,450 Boursa Kuwait In this Report… Kuwait Price Index…………. 1 KFH…………………...…..…..... 2 NBK..…....……..…………..….. 2 Mezzan………….….….……... 3 NIND…..……….………....…… 3 The Price Index <.KWSE> closed at 6,344.77 point. The market recovered from the support zone at 6,027 point-6,100 point, approaching the resistance level at 6,480 point before it eased down. There could be some consolidation on the coming period until the index escapes from the trading area at 6,240 point-6,480 point, knowing that a close above 6,480 point would validate a positive 7,670 continuation pattern and target 6,660 point. On the other side, losing the aforementioned support area will re-instate the bearish tone and trigger 5,830 point. 7,450 Medium-term and long-term investors can re-enter the market at levels higher than 6,475 point and 6,350 point, respectively. 7,200 Daily [.KWSE List 1 of 180] .KWSE 7,100 BarOHLC, .KWSE, Trade Price 25/12/2017, 6,342.74, 6,347.38, 6,292.24, 6,344.77, +2.11, (+0.03%) Cndl, .KWSE, Trade Price 25/12/2017, 6,342.74, 6,347.38, 6,292.24, 6,344.77, +2.11, (+0.03%) WMA, .KWSE, Trade Price(Last), 10 25/12/2017, 6,363.63 EMA, .KWSE, Trade Price(Last), 50 25/12/2017, 6,376.78 EMA, .KWSE, Trade Price(Last), 100 25/12/2017, 6,490.43 25/09/2016 - 18/01/2018 (RIY) Price KWD 7,000 6,940 6,900 6,800 6,700 6,660 6,600 6,480 6,240 6,100 6,027 6,490.43 6,500 6,376.78 6,400 6,363.63 6,344.77 6,300 6,344.77 6,200 6,100 6,000 5,900 5,830 5,800 5,700 5,600 5,500 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,260 Auto 03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 05 18 02 16 01 16 01 18 02 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 5,100 Daily [.KWSE List 1 of 180] .KWSE MACD, .KWSE 4,900 25/12/2017, 13.53, -9.90 04/05/2016 - 25/01/2018 (RIY) Value KWD 4,800 100 13.53 0 -9.90 -100 Auto RSI, .KWSE 25/12/2017, 53.480 Value KWD 60 53.480 30 Faisal Hasan, CFA Head - Investment Research +(965) 2233 6907 Auto Vol, .KWSE 24/12/2017, 44.104M Volume 800M 600M faisal.hasan@kamconline.com 400M 200M 44.104M Auto ROC, .KWSE 25/12/2017, 2.102 Raed Diab Value KWD 12 8 Vice President 4 2.102 0 +(965) 2233 6908 -4 raed.diab@kamconline.com Auto 16 01 16 01 18 01 16 01 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 Q4 2016 01 16 01 16 Q1 2017 03 17 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 05 18 02 16 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 01 16 01 Q4 2017 18 02 16 Q1 18 KAMCO Investment Research Department, 16th Floor, Al-Shaheed Tower, Khalid Bin Al-Waleed Street- Sharq, P.O. BOX : 28873, Safat 13149, Kuwait Technical Analysis Tel.: (+965) 1 852 626 Fax: (+965) 2249 2395 Email: Kamcoird@kamconline.com Website: http://www.kamconline.com 1
2. KAMCO Research December- 2017 Kuwait Finance House Reuters Ticker : <KFIN.KW> Price closed at KWD0.579. The price saw a noticeable rebound from last month low at KWD0.467 but still moving below this year high at KWD0.650. Some weaknesses could be seen on the shortterm period before heading upwards, knowing that the first defense line comes at KWD0.530; however, a dip below it would most likely increase the downside risk towards a re-test of the support level at KWD0.467. On the positive side, a break above KWD0.650 will target KWD0.675. Weekly [.KWSE List 1 of 180] KFIN.KW 750 Cndl, KFIN.KW 28/12/2017, 584.0, 584.0, 577.0, 579.0-1.0, (-0.17%) WMA, KFIN.KW 28/12/2017, 557.0 WMA, KFIN.KW 28/12/2017, 523.7 WMA, KFIN.KW 28/12/2017, 567.6 12/12/2012 - 04/04/2018 (RIY) 675 655 625 530 467 445 400 Price KWf 650 RSI 55.567 600 579.0 567.6 550 557.0 500 523.7 MACD 12.0 ROC -5.854 450 M10 0.555 M50 0.525 M100 0.565 400 360 350 Auto MACD, KFIN.KW 28/12/2017, 8.5, 12.0 12.0 Value 8.5 KWf RSI, KFIN.KW 28/12/2017, 55.567 Vol, KFIN.KW 28/12/2017, 3.589M Auto S1 0.530 Value 55.567 KWf S2 0.467 Auto S3 0.445 R1 0.625 R2 0.655 R3 0.675 Volume 30M 3.589M Auto ROC, KFIN.KW 28/12/2017, -5.854 J Value KWf -5.854 Auto F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 National Bank of Kuwait Reuters Ticker: <NBKK.KW> Price closed at KWD0.729. The stock is attempting to gain further strength after it failed to break below the horizontal line at KWD0.690. A cross over the first resistance line at KWD0.760 would promote once again the strong layer at KWD0.800, while a successful close above this is needed to pave the way for KWD0.845 and maybe more to KWD0.890. However, a fall below KWD0.690 will trigger the support level at KWD0.640. 980 List 1 of 180] NBKK.KW Weekly [.KWSE Cndl, NBKK.KW 28/12/2017, 728.0, 730.0, 727.0, 729.0+1.0, (+0.14%) WMA, NBKK.KW 28/12/2017, 734.6 WMA, NBKK.KW 28/12/2017, 726.3 WMA, NBKK.KW 28/12/2017, 685.5 22/05/2013 - 28/03/2018 (RIY) Price KWf 850 890 845 800 690 610 RSI 50.026 MACD 11.6 ROC -6.418 M10 0.735 Auto M50 0.725 Value KWf 50.026 M100 0.685 800 760 640 525 485 RSI, NBKK.KW 41528/12/2017, 50.026 734.6 750 729.0 700 726.3 685.5 650 600 550 Auto Vol, NBKK.KW 28/12/2017, 2.457M MACD, NBKK.KW 28/12/2017, 4.4, 11.6 Volume S1 0.690 2.457M Auto S2 0.640 11.6 Value 4.4 KWf S3 0.610 R1 0.760 R2 0.800 R3 0.845 Auto ROC, NBKK.KW 28/12/2017, -6.418 Value KWf 0 -6.418 Auto J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Technical Analysis 2
3. KAMCO Research December- 2017 Mezzan Holding Co . Reuters Ticker: <MEZZ.KW> Price closed at KWD0.767. There could be a scope for a natural upward correction to take place on the short-term period after a prolonged bearish move. The nearby overhead resistance level comes at KWD0.830, while a break above it would promote KWD0.870. However, managing to jump over KWD0.870 will allow a move back to KWD0.955. On the other side, losing the support level at KWD0.740 would allow a re-visit to KWD0.686. Weekly [.KWSE List 1 of 180] MEZZ.KW BarOHLC, MEZZ.KW 28/12/2017, 785.0, 785.0, 767.0, 767.0, N/A, N/A Cndl, MEZZ.KW 28/12/2017, 785.0, 785.0, 767.0, 767.0, N/A, N/A WMA, MEZZ.KW 28/12/2017, 772.8 WMA, MEZZ.KW 28/12/2017, 855.7 28/02/2013 - 29/03/2018 (RIY) Price KWf 1,160 1,040 1,100 RSI 35.621 1,000 MACD -40.0 ROC -9.871 M10 0.770 M50 0.855 M100 0.950 -38.8 Auto S1 0.740 Value KWf 35.621 S2 0.686 S3 0.600 R1 0.830 R2 0.870 R3 0.955 RSI 57.914 955 870 830 740 686 900 855.7 772.8 800 767.0 767.0 700 Auto MACD, MEZZ.KW 28/12/2017, -38.8, -40.0 Value KWf RSI, MEZZ.KW 28/12/2017, 35.621 Auto Vol, MEZZ.KW 28/12/2017, 510.0 Volume 10M 510.0 Auto ROC, MEZZ.KW 28/12/2017, -9.871 Value KWf -9.871 Auto M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 National Industries Group Holding Reuters Ticker: <NIND.KW> Price closed at KWD0.153. The current technical picture is positive as the stock sustains a close above its MAs. Eyes now have shifted towards this year high at KWD0.170, which if broken would illustrate 295 a positive continuation pattern and call for a gradual increase towards KWD0.204. On the counter side, the stock has printed a strong support level at KWD0.135, while back below it would delay any upward potential and trigger the next line at KWD0.126. Weekly [.KWSE List 1 of 180] NIND.KW BarOHLC, NIND.KW 28/12/2017, 152.0, 156.0, 151.0, 153.00.0, (0.00%) Cndl, NIND.KW 28/12/2017, 152.0, 156.0, 151.0, 153.0, 0.0, (0.00%) EMA, NIND.KW 28/12/2017, 149.1 EMA, NIND.KW 28/12/2017, 139.3 WMA, NIND.KW 28/12/2017, 133.8 05/06/2013 - 28/03/2018 (RIY) Price KWf 204 200 MACD 4.8 160 153.0 153.0 140 149.1 139.3 133.8 120 ROC -1.290 M10 0.149 M50 0.139 100 M100 0.134 S1 0.135 S2 0.126 180 170 148 135 126 102 93 MACD, NIND.KW 28/12/2017, 4.2, 4.8 RSI, NIND.KW 28/12/2017, 57.914 Auto 4.8 4.2 Value KWf Auto Value 57.914 KWf Auto Vol, NIND.KW 28/12/2017, 9.236M ROC, NIND.KW 28/12/2017, -1.290 Volume 9.236M Auto Value KWf 0 -1.290 Auto S3 0.102 R1 0.170 R2 0.186 R3 0.204 J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Technical Analysis 3
4. KAMCO Research December- 2017 Definitions Technical Analysis : Aims to identify the direction of prices and reveal any indication of possible changes as soon as possible, so it can be used as much as possible in making buying and selling decisions in the most appropriate time in order to minimize risk and maximize profits. Trend: The general direction of a market or of the price of an asset. Resistance: A chart point or range that caps an increase in the level of a stock or index over a period of time. Support: The price level which, historically, a stock has had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock. Breakout: A signal that prices are beginning to trend, either upward or downward. Bull: An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry is likely to rise. Bear: An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry is likely to decline. Channel: is two parallel trend lines either rising or declining. Consolidation Area: is a sideways movement in prices that interrupts or reverse a trend. Moving Average (MA): The most common applications of MAs are to identify the trend direction and to determine support and resistance levels. MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence): A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. Relative Strength Index: A technical momentum indicator (ranges from 0 to 100) that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. Overbought: A situation in which the price of a security has risen to such a degree that an oscillator has reached its upper bound. This is generally interpreted as a sign that the price of the asset is becoming overvalued and may experience a pullback. Oversold: A situation in which the price of a security has fallen to such a degree that an oscillator has reached its upper bound. This is generally interpreted as a sign that the price of the asset is becoming undervalued and may represent a buying opportunity for investors. Fibonacci: A term refers to areas of support or resistance and to help identify strategic places for transactions to be placed, target prices or stop losses. On Balance Volume (OBV): is a simple running total of up day (added) and down day (subtracted) volume. If OBV is moving with price, it confirms the current trend. Divergences between OBV and price indicates the price may be due for a reversal. Technical Analysis 4
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6. KAMCO Investment Company - K .S.C. (Public) Al-Shaheed Tower, Khalid Bin Al-Waleed Street- Sharq P.O. BOX : 28873, Safat 13149, State of Kuwait Tel: (+965) 1852626 Fax: (+965) 22492395 Email : Kamcoird@kamconline.com Website : http://www.kamconline.com KAMCO Investment Company