Pakistan Daily Economy Update - 13 October

Transcription

1. Oct . 11-13, 2016 KCCI - eBulletin CPEC would help bolster growth: Moody's Moody's Investors Service said that CPEC should, over time, bolster growth through higher investment in transportation and power generation infrastructure. Overall, a combination of further economic reforms and the CPEC point to real GDP growth at or around 5% per year. It further said that Pakistan has progressed well during the last three years under the IMF program which helped the fiscal deficit curtail by almost half from 8% attained during FY13. BR – Tue. Economic Indicators Date / Period Unit Value Change Daily USD-Interbank 10-Oct PKR 104.64 0.00% USD-Open MKT 10-Oct PKR 105.80 0.47% Economic corridor: only two projects worth $ 137Mn completed Only two projects at a cost of $ 137Mn under CPEC have been completed so far out of 17 early harvest proposed projects at a total estimated cost of $ 18Bn. The two CPEC projects that have been completed are $ 135Mn Quaid-e-Azam 100MWs Solar Park and $ 2Mn Digital Terrestrial Multiband Broadcast. The remaining 15 projects under implementation includes: (i) 10 energy projects at a cost of $ 11.19Bn to generate around 4,460MWs electricity by 2018; (ii) two transport infrastructure project at a cost of $ 6.1Bn, (iii) two relating to Gwadar Port at a cost of $ 0.371Bn and (iv) one Cross Border Optical Fiber Cable at an estimated cost of $ 0.04Bn. BR – Tue. KSE-100 index FIPI 10-Oct 10-Oct Pts. $ Mn 41,404 0.19 0.49% NM** Crude (JU'16) 12-Oct $/bbl 50.56 -1.31% Gold (MY'16) 12-Oct $/oz 1,254.6 0.14% Gold (10g) Local 10-Oct PKR 43,121 0.19% Pak-Iran ink MoU for new payment mechanism Pakistan and Iran have signed a MoU to open channels in their respective central banks for bilateral trade transactions and put an end to the dollar account for clearance of Letter of Credit (LC). The agreement has been signed to remove trade hurdles between the two countries. According to the Ministry of Commerce, Iran has still not been authorized by the US to use the dollar account for the clearance of LC for international trade. In order to avoid such difficulties, Pakistan and Iran have agreed to end the role of the dollar. The bank accounts will be opened in their respective currencies. Tribune - Wed. Silver (MY'16) 12-Oct $/oz 17.47 0.10% Cotton(KHI)-40 kg 10-Oct PKR 6,495 -1.22% Kibor-6M 10-Oct % 6.05% 0.00% Forex Reserves 30-Sep $ Bn 23.61 0.82% Remittances Jul-Aug 16 $ Bn 3.09 -3.17% Exports* Jul-Aug 16 $ Bn 3.14 -8.19% Imports* Jul-Aug 16 $ Bn 7.88 10.21% Trade Balance* Jul-Aug 16 $ Bn -4.74 -27.06% Current Account Avg. CPI-FY17* Jul-Aug 16 Jul-Sep 16 $ Mn % -1,316 3.88 -91.84% Pakistan’s ecommerce industry to surpass ‘several hundred million dollars’ by 2020 Pakistanis are likely to spend “several hundred million dollars” on online shopping by 2020 as a greater part of the country adopts digital technology and sees the launch of more ecommerce portals. Pegged by greater smartphone penetration and digital payments solutions, the country’s ecommerce industry is expected to grow to several $ 100Mn by 2020 from the current figure of $ 30Mn, according to the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) in its Annual Report 2016. Tribune- Wed. ADR Bill to become Act: Out-of-court settlements to be possible Any means of settling disputes outside of the traditional courtroom proceedings for early neutral evaluation, negotiation, conciliation, mediation and arbitration would be possible in both civil and criminal matters in Pakistan. It will be for individuals or commercial entities once recently approved 'Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) Bill', 2016 by the Law Reforms Committee becomes an Act of the Parliament. A total of 24 matters could be settled under the ADR mechanism outside of the traditional courtroom. BR – Wed. List of Indicators WoW YoY Sep-16 Discount Rate % 5.75 Sources: KCCI Research, PMEX , NCCPL, KSE, SBP, PBS* ** Not Meaningful WoW= week on week; YoY=Year on Year Major Currencies Revenue from petroleum levy rises to PKR 159Bn in 2015-16 The govt. tax collection from petroleum levy increased to PKR 159Bn during FY16 compared with PKR 131Bn in FY15 higher than 21%. A 39% higher tax collection through GIDC was also recorded at PKR 79.7Bn as against PKR 57Bn for FY15. There was also an increase of 22% in tax collection on account of Natural Gas Surcharge to PKR 32Bn from PKR 25.8Bn in FY15. The govt. revenue from Public Sector Enterprise (PSEs) and others increased to PKR 57.74Bn during FY16 from PKR 14.19Mn a year ago. Similarly, revenue collection from dividend increased to PKR 88.55Bn during FY16 from PKR 74.10Bn in FY15. BR – Tue. 175 FBR sees existing measures enough to meet revenue target Tax authorities expect ongoing measures would bring the desired results for revenue collection the FY17 and no new steps are being planned, at least for the near-term despite a major shortfall in tax target for the first quarter. The FBR has failed to collect targeted revenue in July-Sept. quarter and faced a shortfall of around PKR 50-55Bn. The FBR estimated PKR 675Bn of revenue collection for the 1QFY17 out of the total fiscal year target of PKR 3,621Bn. The revenue body provisionally collected PKR 625Bn during July-Sept 2016. The News- Wed. 115 Auditor General reports discrepancy of PKR 70Bn in tax revenue The Auditor General of Pakistan has unearthed a variation of PKR 70Bn in figures of tax receipts reported by the FBR and SBP during FY15. The AGP has asked the FBR to fix the responsibility for misreporting and those found responsible be proceeded against under the relevant disciplinary rules. The report will soon be placed before the Public Accounts Committee which is led by Khursheed Shah. Dawn – Wed Pakistan, India unlikely to end hunger by 2030 under SDG: report A number of countries, including Pakistan and India, are not on the course to end hunger till the deadline of 2030 set under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal, according to the international report. The 2016 Global Hunger Index report has said that more than 45 countries including India, Pakistan, Haiti, Yemen, and Afghanistan will still have “moderate” to “alarming” hunger scores in 2030. While 7 countries have alarming levels of hunger and 43 countries including high-population countries like India, Nigeria, and Indonesia have serious hunger levels. The News - Wed. PKR 64.77Bn raised through MTB auction The govt. has raised PKR 64.77Bn through short-term govt. papers auction as bids amounting to PKR 134.27Bn were received with a realized amount of PKR 130.47Bn against the tentative borrowing target of PKR 250Bn. Bids amounting to PKR 10.36Bn (realized amount) were accepted for 3-month at a cut-off yield of 5.86%. Some PKR 22.60Bn were borrowed through 6-month T-bills at 5.91%. In addition, an amount of PKR 29.27Bn was raised through 12-month MTBs at a cut-off yield of 5.92%. BR – Tue. PSDP: PKR 123.6Bn released so far The govt. has released PKR 123.6Bn (15.5%) for different development projects under the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) FY17 against the total budgeted allocation of PKR 800Bn. The govt. has released PKR 40.5Bn (17.3%) for development projects of various federal ministries against the total budgeted allocation of PKR 233.95Bn. Pakistan’s Planning Commission has so far followed the stipulated mechanism for release of funds: first quarter (Jul.’16-Sept.’17) 20%, second quarter (Oct.’16-Dec.’17) 20%, third quarter (Jan.’17-Mar.’17) 30% and fourth quarter (Apr.’17-Jun.’17) 30%. BR – Tue. PSO in financial stress as receivables hit PKR 247.6Bn PSO has reported to the federal government that its total receivables increased to PKR 247.6Bn as of Oct. 2, 2016.Public sector hold the biggest chunk of payables to PSO with PKR 134.5Bn, accounting for more than 54%, and most of the remaining part originated from the public sector. Dawn – Wed Punjab seeks PKR 20Bn tax exemption for Orange Line train project The Punjab govt. has sought PKR 20Bn or roughly $ 195Mn as tax exemption while claiming a similar preferential treatment that is available to CPEC projects. The provincial govt. is seeking reduction in WHT payments and complete exemptions from sales tax and customs duties payments. However, federal tax authorities are not in favor of granting these exemptions. The decision has to be taken by the ECC of the Cabinet after the govt. withdrew FBR’s powers to issue statutory regulatory orders under a condition of the IMF. Tribune Wed. Hydropower project to supply 720MW The 720MW Karot Hydropower project, being built from Silk Road Fund initiated by Chinese President Xi Jinping, will become operational by 2020. The construction work on this project has already been started at Karot village of Rawalpindi district in Jan 2016 and is expected to be completed in 2020, according to the ministry of planning development and reforms. He said it is the first hydropower project financed by China's Silk Road project for which land acquisition is being completed at a fast pace. The News- Wed. 165 155 145 GBP, 12-Oct-16, EUR, 128.1 12-Oct-16, 115.5 135 125 105 95 USD, 12-Oct-16, 104.7 85 75 Oct-15 Jan-16 USD Apr-16 GBP Jul-16 Oct-16 Source: KCCI Research ; Oanda.com EUR Quote of the Day "'Anyone who has lost track of time when using a computer knows the propensity to dream, the urge to make dreams come true and the tendency to miss lunch." Tim Berners-Lee Chart of the Day Pakistan's Export of Oil Products (Mn Tons) 3MFY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08 FY07 FY06 FY05 0.15 0.65 0.85 0.65 0.73 0.79 0.67 0.73 0.73 - 0.2 0.4 Mogas 0.6 Naptha 0.83 0.97 0.95 0.92 0.8 1.0 1.2 Source: KCCI Research ; OCAC Disclaimer This report has been prepared by KCCI Research & Development Cell. The information contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified. icon represents the sole viewpoint of the KCCI R&D Cell, and is stated to enrich the readers' understanding of the news item. The R&D Dept. bears no responsibility for its correctness or accuracy. Contact: res@kcci.com.pk