Pakistan Daily Economy Update - 14 November

Transcription

1. Nov . 13-14, 2016 KCCI - eBulletin PKR 106.00 0.00% KSE-100 index FIPI 11-Nov 11-Nov Pts. $ Mn 42,849 -3.85 0.34% NM** Crude (DE'16) 11-Nov $/bbl 45.57 2.36% Gold (DE'16) 11-Nov $/oz 1,224 -2.65% Gold (10g) Local 11-Nov PKR 44,528 -0.48% Silver (DE'16) 11-Nov $/oz 17.34 -6.58% Cotton(KHI)-40 kg 11-Nov PKR 6,522 0.00% Kibor-6M 11-Nov % 6.07% 0.00% 4-Nov $ Bn 24.15 -0.15% Remittances Jul-Oct 16 $ Bn 6.26 -3.82% Exports* Jul-Oct 16 $ Bn 6.43 -6.60% Imports* Jul-Oct 16 $ Bn 15.75 8.01% Trade Balance* Jul-Oct 16 $ Bn -9.32 -21.07% Current Account Avg. CPI-FY17* Jul-Sep 16 Jul-Oct 16 $ Mn % -1,368 3.95 -136.27% WoW Forex Reserves YoY Oct-16 Discount Rate % 5.75 Sources: KCCI Research, PMEX (02:00 am) , NCCPL, KSE, SBP, PBS* ** Not Meaningful WoW= week on week; YoY=Year on Year Major Currencies 175 165 155 145 GBP, 12-Nov-16, 132.0 135 125 115 EUR, 12-Nov-16, 114.0 105 95 USD, 12-Nov-16, 104.7 85 75 Nov-15 USD WB likely to finance $ 375Mn Trans-Khyber Pass project The World Bank is actively considering financing of the ‘Trans-Khyber Pass’ project which will serve as gateway for Pakistan’s trade to Central Asia’ and give further impetus to growing Pak-Afghan trade. The Peshawar-Torkham expressway as a gateway to Central Asia will leverage the Afghan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement signed in 2010, and will facilitate access to potential new regional markets. It is expected that the World Bank’s soft window, the International Development Association will provide $ 375Mn for the project. Dawn – Mon. Companies Ordinance, 2016 promulgated Finance Minister has said that the Companies Ordinance, 2016, had been promulgated in order to encourage and facilitate best international corporate practices in country. "In order to ensure maximum participation of members in the decision making process of the company, the Companies Ordinance, 2016, encourages use of modern electronic means of communication," Dar said. He further said that "It includes special provisions to facilitate small and medium enterprises. The Companies Ordinance, 2016, also includes provisions for Shariah certifications of companies and requirements for real estate companies for providing enhanced protection to the investor,”. Daily Times– Mon. Aug-16 Nov-16 Source: KCCI Research ; Oanda.com "In order to succeed, we must first believe that we can." Nikos Kazantzakis Chart of the Day 800 600 400 200 63.19 1,000 64.98 1,200 64.98 1,400 119.05 112.74 119.05 1,600 119.11 1,800 Remittances Received from Top 10 Countries in Pakistan 124.6 2,000 124.6 IMF renews $ 250Bn crisis fund IMF has said that its executive board approved the renewal of its $ 250Bn crisis lending fund, the New Arrangements to Borrow, for another 5year period. The IMF said the crisis fund, which includes contributions from 38 wealthier member countries, has been renewed continuously since 1998. The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) fund aims to provide supplementary resources "to forestall or cope with an impairment of the international monetary system or to deal with an exceptional situation that poses a threat to the stability of that system. The News – Sun. May-16 EUR 254.8 219.63 254.8 Branchless banking transactions up 6.8% to PKR 543.6Bn in Q2 SBP has recorded transactions of the branchless banking worth PKR 543.6Bn, showing an increase of 6.8% during 2QCY16 as against PKR 509.1Bn in 2QCY15. The branchless banking for April-June, 2016 attributed the rise in transactions to 23% surge in cash / deposit withdrawal, 19% in mobile top ups and 10% increase in m-wallet to m-wallet fund transfers. The value of customer-oriented transactions remained at PKR 328.9Bn with a share of 60.5% in total value of transactions, while the value of agent transactions stood at PKR 214.7Bn with a share of 39.5%. The News – Sun. GBP Quote of the Day Moot on debt: exports not sufficient enough to repay loans At the National Debt Conference; organized by Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME), participants have said that Pakistan is not growing enough to justify the govt. borrowing as the national exports are not sufficient enough for repayment of external loans. They further stated that the country's economic growth and per capita income do not justify borrowing. They said the public debt stock of the country has grown by seven times during the last few years whereas per capita income has increased only three times. Pakistan's external debt has reached $ 73Bn and is expected to increase to $ 81.3Bn by the end of FY17, $ 90Bn by 2017-18, $ 98Bn by 2018-19 and $110 by 2019-20. The country's financing requirements are estimated to increase to $ 18Bn by 2017-18 from $ 15Bn projected for the current fiscal year and estimated at $ 22.5Bn by 2019-20. BR -Sun. Securities, futures trade: every advisor must seek licence and have PKR 5Mn net worth: SECP The SECP has proposed that any person working as securities adviser or futures adviser would be bound to obtain licence from the SECP and must have a minimum net worth of PKR 5Mn. Through an SRO 1039/2016, the SECP has issued draft Securities and Futures Advisers (Licensing and Operations) Regulations, 2016 to be applicable on securities adviser or futures adviser. BR - Sun. Feb-16 259.02 255.18 259.02 Leather exports share drops to 0.5% Pakistan is swiftly losing its share of the world leather market to regional countries because of higher cost of production, as the leather exports have declined by 18% on average in FY16. Pakistan’s share of leather and leather products export is limited to just 0.5% in the world market for the last many years despite having fourth largest livestock population with over 180Mn cattle in the world. Comparing Pakistan’s meager share in leather export market with other regional countries, China’s share is 19%, Italy’s 9%, Vietnam’s 4% and India’s 2.5%. The Nation - Mon. 11-Nov 278.88 Oil tanker trucks relocation ordered Deputy mayor of Karachi Arshad Vohra has said that operators of oil tanker trucks had been directed to relocate their operations to the Zulfikarabad oil tanker parking terminal (ZOTPT) and start parking their vehicles at the terminal within a month as all facilities had been provided at the terminal. He said that oil tanker trucks remained parked for long hours on the city roads which caused congestion leading to traffic jams and accidents causing hardships to the people of Karachi. With the relocation of oil trucks to the ZOTPT next month, the people in general and road users in particular would feel relief. Dawn – Mon. 0.00% USD-Open MKT 476.22 PDWP likely to be opened by PM next month Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is expected to inaugurate Pakistan Deep Water Port in the third week of December. The port has a designed draft of 18 metres and operational or current draft of 16 metres which will allow berthing of mother ships. The KPT in the first week of Oct 2016 reached an agreement with a Dutch company for capital dredging of approach channel by removing around 5Mn cubic metres of silt and sand at a contracted cost of PKR 2.985Bn. Dawn – Mon. Change Daily 104.71 476.22 Mega power plants shut as demand drops massively The Ministry of Water and Power has abruptly shut down at least 4 mega power plants, saying that demand for electricity has gone down massively by 7,000MW compared to the peak in summer season. In summer, the demand shoots up to around 22,000MW whereas in winter it comes down to about 14,000MW. The production, however, always remains short of demand with the shortfall sometimes reaching 6,000MW for varying reasons. Tribune – Sun. Value PKR 719.81 850.09 719.81 Dollar Outflows via credit cards hit $300m Around $ 300Mn to $ 350Mn is going out of the country each year through credit cards as they have become another source of foreign exchange outflow. State Bank’s latest data showed that the amount of loans given on credit cards rose 12.5% to PKR 27Bn in Sep 2016 from PKR 24Bn in the same month of the last year. Travelling from Pakistan has increased manifold during the last 5 years, resulting into higher use of credit cards, education and health are two other reasons for the rise in outflow. Dawn – Sun. Unit 11-Nov 787.39 963.49 787.39 Populist moves blamed for poor tax collection FBR has admitted that this fiscal year’s collection will fall short of the target by at least PKR 150Bn owing to certain populist measures. The government has projected an ambitious revenue target of PKR 3.621Tn for FY17, an increase of PKR 500Bn over the previous year. Already the revenue collection fell short by PKR 80Bn in the first four months (July-October) of FY17 and the tax authorities last month had evolved a strategy to bridge the gap. According to the FBR, reduction in revenue is mainly due to annual revenue loss of PKR 118Bn because prices of petroleum products have not been increased this fiscal year. Reduction of sales tax from 17% to 5% on fertilisers in the budget FY17 may mean an annual revenue loss of PKR 15Bn and another 15Bn due to zero-rating of five sectors—textile, carpet, sports, leather and surgical goods in the latest budget. Dawn – Mon. List of Indicators 1415.17 1358.64 1415.17 Ordinance to get info from abroad promulgated President Mamnoon Hussain has promulgated the Companies Ordinance 2016 that for the first time empower the govt. to ask foreign companies in Pakistan and locals who invested abroad to know their investment and beneficial owners. The ordinance will empowers the govt. to obtain information on foreign investment, fraud, money laundering and terror financing, etc. Under the Companies Ordinance, 2016, the SECP will maintain a companies’ global register of beneficial ownership, which will have complete record of the beneficial ownership of the substantial shareholders and officers in local and foreign companies doing business in Pakistan. The News – Sun. Date / Period USD-Interbank 1793.99 1721.65 1793.99 China now in Arabian Sea through Kashgar-Gwadar link Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has inaugurated a trade route linking Gwadar port to the Chinese city of Kashgar as part of a joint multi-billion-dollar project (CPEC) to jumpstart economic growth in the South Asian country. A ship Cosco Wellington berthed at the port; has been loaded with over 150 containers - the first consignment under the CPEC. BR - Mon. Economic Indicators 0 Value in $ Mn 4MFY15 4MFY16 4MFY17 Source: KCCI Research, SBP Disclaimer This report has been prepared by KCCI Research & Development Cell. The information contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified. icon represents the sole viewpoint of the KCCI R&D Cell, and is stated to enrich the readers' understanding of the news item. The R&D Dept. bears no responsibility for its correctness or accuracy. Contact: res@kcci.com.pk