Monthly Monitor March 2017

Transcription

1. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Executive Summary  The non-hydrocarbon sector drove real GDP growth in Q4-2016  Nominal GDP in Q4 expanded on higher investment  Qatar’s population grew by 5.2% year on year in March  Inflation decelerated to 0.7% year on year in February The non-hydrocarbon sector drove real GDP growth in Q4-2016 Real GDP growth by sector (% change , year on year)  Real GDP growth slowed to 1.7% year on year in Q4 2016 while Q3 real GDP was revised upwards to Hydrocarbon Non-Hydrocarbon 3.9% from 3.7% previously New Data Total 10%   Growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector picked up to 5.9% year on year, while Q3 GDP was revised upwards to 5.3% from 4.7%; construction was the fastest growing sector in Q4, with growth at 17.3% year on year The hydrocarbon sector contracted by 2.5% year on year in Q4, following an expansion of 2.6% in Q3 8% 4.8% 6% 4% 3.6% 3.9% 1.9% 3.9% 1.4% 1.8% 2% 1.7% 0% -2% -4% Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Sources: Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS), Haver Analytics and QNB Economics GCC stock indices mostly fell in March New Data Stock market indices   March saw mostly weak performance across the GCC on concerns of oil price performance Kuwait has outperformed in the region, with gains of 3.6% over the month. This has reportedly been driven by large trades placed on a single stock which is typically illiquid. At the start of the year, Kuwait’s stock market also performed well on expectation of market reforms which should improve market liquidity and reduce trading costs (Index, rebased, 31 Dec 2016 = 100) Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Dubai Abu Dhabi 125 115 105 95 85 75 1-Jan 16-Jan 31-Jan 15-Feb 2-Mar 17-Mar Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics QNB Economics Weekly Commentary        US growth robust despite delays to fiscal stimulus Is the EM capital flight crisis over? Euro Area growth to ease in 2017 China growth targets imply more debt-fuelled fiscal stimulus Fed more likely to use rates than balance sheet to tighten policy Oil after OPEC — range-bound at USD55-60 China chooses yuan stability over growth to stem outflows India Economic Insight 2017 QNB Economics recently published the India Economic Insight 2017, providing an overview of the Indian economy, with in-depth analysis and forecasts. The report is available on the QNB website along with other published Economic Insight Reports. Page 1 of 12
2. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Nominal GDP in Q4 expanded on higher investment New Data GDP by expenditure    Qatar’s quarterly GDP expanded by 4.1% year on year to USD40.4bn in Q4 2016, while Q3 GDP was revised upwards to USD38.8bn from USD38.6bn previously (bn USD and share in total GDP) USD38.8bn USD40.4bn 45.8% 47.9% Investment was the biggest contributor to GDP, with 11.8% growth year on year and an expanded share of 44.9% from 41.0% a year ago Net exports continue to fall on a year on year basis, although at a slowing pace; net exports fell 42.1% in Q4 compared to 71.4% in Q3; government and private consumption grew by 7.1% and 8.1%, respectively Exports Investment 46.2% 44.9% 22.7% 21.8% 25.1% 25.1% -39.8% -39.6% Q3 16 Q4 16 Government Consumption Private Consumption Imports Sources: MDPS , Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Qatar oil production fell in March New Data Oil prices and production  Oil production fell to 610k barrels per day (b/d) in March, from 620k b/d in February as Qatar continues to comply with OPEC production cuts (USD/b, left axis; Oil production (k b/d), right axis) 70 800 700 60  Brent crude oil prices fell by 5.0% month on month in March, reaching USD52.8/b 600 500 50 400 300   The fall in Brent reflects ongoing concern over rising US oil production We forecast Brent crude prices to be range bound in 2017 and fall between USD55-60/b 40 200 100 30 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Oil Production (right axis) Sep-16 0 Mar-17 Brent Oil Price (left axis) Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), Bloomberg, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Qatar’s population grew by 5.2% year on year in March   Qatar’s population stood at 2.7m in March, with growth relatively steady at 5.2% from 5.0% the previous month The male and female populations rose by 4.8% and 6.6% year on year, respectively — women make up close to 25% of the population New Data Population (m, % year on year) 12 3.0 10 2.5 8 2.0 6 1.5 4 1.0 2 0.5 0 Mar 2015 Nov 2015 Male (right axis) Growth Rate (left axis) 0.0 Jul 2016 Mar 2017 Female (right axis) Sources: MDPS, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Page 2 of 12
3. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Inflation decelerated to 0.7% year on year in February   Consumer price index (CPI) inflation decelerated further to 0.7% in February from 1.2% the previous month as housing inflation, the biggest component of the CPI basket with close to 22% weighting, dipped into deflationary territory New Data CPI Inflation (% change, year on year) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Food and beverages inflation has accelerated, although it is still in deflation (-0.5%) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 Feb 2017 Sources: MDPS, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Broad money grew by 2.5% year on year in February New Data Broad money (M2)   Broad money supply (M2) expanded for the first time in 12 months, growing 2.5% from -0.8% in January (bn QAR , % year on year) This was helped by a smaller than usual contraction in foreign currency deposits which fell by only 0.6% in February versus 10.8% year on year the previous month 15 600 10 500 400 5 300 0 200 -5 100 -10 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Feb 2016 Total (right axis) Aug 2016 0 Feb 2017 Growth Rate (left axis) Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Overnight interbank rates fell to 1.19% in February New Data Interbank interest rate: overnight   Overnight interbank rates fell to 1.19% February from 1.40% in January; the 3-month interbank rate stayed nearly flat at 1.65% while the 1-year interbank rate picked up to 2.25% from 2.15% The QCB hiked its policy lending and deposit rates in March, in line with the US Fed rate hike; the lending rate rose to 5.00% from 4.75% while the deposit rate rose to 1.25% from 1.00%. The QCB also reduced the cash reserve ratio to 4.50% from 4.75% (%) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 Feb 2017 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Page 3 of 12
4. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 The real estate price index contracted by 4.5% year on year in December Real estate price index    After bottoming out in September 2016, the real estate price index (REPI) picked up steadily, rising by 4.6% in the three months to December However, on a year-to-year basis, the index has contracted by 4.5% in December The REPI reflects the prices of land, residential and commercial transactions (Index and % change year on year) QCB Real Estate Index (left axis) 350 Growth rate (right axis) 50 300 40 250 30 200 20 150 10 100 0 50 -10 0 Dec 2014 Jun 2015 Dec 2015 Jun 2016 -20 Dec 2016 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.6% of GDP in Q3 2016 Budget balance    The fiscal deficit narrowed sharply to QAR5.1bn (3.6% of GDP) in Q3 2016 from QAR15.2bn (11.3% of GDP) in Q2 Revenue declined to QAR31.4bn in Q3 from QAR33.2bn in Q2, while expenditure fell to QAR36.5bn from QAR48.3bn The 2017 budget announced by the government projects a reduction in the fiscal deficit to QAR28.4bn in 2017 from a deficit of QAR46.5bn in 2016 (bn QAR) Revenue Expenditure Budget Balance 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 Q3 14 Q1 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q3 16 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics The trade surplus grew to USD3.4bn in February New Data Trade balance (bn USD)  Exports grew 22.5% year on year and 0.8% month on month to USD5.6bn, helped by the recovery in oil and gas prices; imports fell 15.4% year on year and 12.6% month on month Exports Imports Trade Balance 8 7 6 5  Japan was the largest export market, with a share of 19.1% of total exports, followed by South Korea and India; China, the US and the UAE were the top three countries of origin for imports 4 3 2 1 0 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 Feb 2017 Sources: MDPS, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Page 4 of 12
5. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 International reserves were steady at USD34.2bn in February International reserves and months of import cover (bn USD, left axis; Months of import cover, right axis)  International reserves stood at USD34.2bn compared to USD34.1bn in January International Reserves (left axis)  The current level of reserves is equivalent to 6.6 months of import cover, which is well above the IMF recommended minimum of three months for a fixed-exchange rate regime New Data Months of Import Cover (right axis) 50 10 40 8 30 6 20 4 10 2 0 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 0 Feb 2017 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics The balance of payments deficit narrowed to near balance in Q3 2016 Balance of payments (bn USD)  The balance of payments (BoP) deficit Current Account Balance (left axis) narrowed for the third consecutive quarter, Capital and Financial Account Balance (left axis) reaching a deficit of USD0.1bn in Q3 2016 from Change in International Reserves (right axis) 15 6.0 a deficit of USD0.3bn in Q2 2016  The improvement in the BoP was driven by a fall in the current account deficit to USD1.5bn from USD2.5bn; this compensated for weaker inflows into the capital account, which recorded a USD0.9bn surplus in Q3 compared to a surplus of USD3.0bn in Q2 10 4.0 5 2.0 0 0.0 -5 -2.0 -10 -4.0 -15 -6.0 Q3 14 Q1 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q3 16 Sources: Qatar Central Bank (QCB), Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Bank deposit growth accelerated to 19.8% in February New Data Bank deposits  Bank deposits grew 19.8% year on year in February from 14.8% growth in January (bn QAR and % change year on year) Deposits (left axis)    The share of non-resident deposits to total deposits moderated to 25.8% from 27.1% the previous month Private sector deposit growth jumped to 10.6% year on year from 2.8% while the contraction in public sector deposits eased to -4.1% from 13.3% Non-resident deposits grew 101.4% as the banking sector continued to source foreign funds 780 760 740 720 700 680 660 640 620 600 580 560 540 520 Feb 2015 Growth rate (right axis) 25 20 15 10 5 Aug 2015 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 0 Feb 2017 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Page 5 of 12
6. Monthly Monitor QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 6 Bank assets grew to QAR1.27tn in February New Data Bank assets   Bank assets grew 14.2% year on year in February compared to 12.8% in January Domestic assets grew 12.1% year on year in February, from 12.8% in the previous month driven largely by growth in domestic credit (bn QAR and % change year on year) Assets (left axis) Growth rate (right axis) 1400 16 1200 14 12 1000 10 800 8 600 6 400 4 200 2 0 0 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 Feb 2017 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Bank credit grew by 13.3% year on year in February New Data Bank credit    Loan growth accelerated to 13.3% year on year in February from 12.1% in January Loans to the public sector (41.0% of total domestic credit) drove the headline, with growth of 26.5% year on year in February Private sector loans grew by 7.0% year on year while foreign credit grew by 6.5% (bn QAR and % change year on year) 900 Loans (left axis) end-2015 L/D 115.7% Growth rate (right axis) end-2016 L/D 116.1% 25 20 700 15 10 500 5 300 Feb 2015 0 Aug 2015 Feb 2016 Aug 2016 Feb 2017 *L/D refers to the loans to deposits ratio Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Page 6 of 12
7. Monthly Monitor QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 6 Main News  Qatar within FTSE global equity index series – As per announcement made by FTSE on March 1, 2017, “Treatment of Qatar within FTSE Global Equity Index Series”, 20 of the 22 companies selected in September 2016 will see their investibility weights double. The changes to the FTSE Secondary Emerging Market index will be will be effective from March 20, 2017 (QSE)  Real estate transactions stood at QR548mn in Qatar between March 5-9 – The weekly bulletin released by the real estate registration department at the Ministry of Justice said that the types of real estate traded ranged from plots of land, houses to residential and commercial buildings, housing complexes and multi-purpose buildings (Gulf-Times.com)  The Qatar Financial Center (QFC) is aiming to account for at least 5% of the market capitalization of the Qatar Stock Exchange through the listing of its entities on the local bourse. The QFC also plans to triple foreign direct investments flows from its registered firms to more than QR200bn in the next five years, according to its top official (GulfTimes.com)  Qatar will double the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Poland to 2mn tons per annum as part of efforts to strengthen the bilateral economic and trade relations between the two countries. Qatargas has signed a side agreement to the existing sale and purchase agreement (SPA) with Polish Oil and Gas Company (GulfTimes.com)  Qatar Holding is selling as much as $900mn in shares of Banco Santander’s Brazilian unit, according to a prospectus to be filed. Qatar is offering 80mn units that are composed of one common share and one preferred share in Banco Santander and will be sold in an international sale being underwritten by banks including Credit Suisse Group and Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit, according to the prospectus (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar plans to increase its investments in the UK by £5bn within the next five years, deepening the countries’ trade ties as London prepares to quit the European Union. The plan will be carried out through the Qatar Investment Authority, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, and its subsidiaries, according to HE the Finance Minister Ali Sherif al-Emadi (Gulf-Times.com, Peninsula Qatar)  Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) will transfer oversight of its approximately $100bn domestic portfolio to the country’s finance ministry as the sovereign fund undergoes its second overhaul in three years, people with knowledge of the matter said (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar Science and Technology Park (QSTP) has launched a Product Development Fund as part of its mission to accelerate technology development and innovation within the private sector in Qatar (Gulf-Times.com) Page 7 of 12
8. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 National Accounts Nominal GDP (QAR bn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q4 2016 YoY% Total 680.1 723.4 750.7 599.3 555.0 147.1 2.1% Oil & Gas 394.7 403.0 394.2 231.3 168.3 46.4 -6.4% Non-Oil 285.4 320.3 356.5 368.0 386.7 100.7 6.5% Agriculture and Fishing Industry Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Construction 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8% 104.9 116.1 129.5 119.3 119.7 31.0 7.0% 71.6 73.8 76.1 58.1 50.2 13.1 -0.4% 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 0.8 -0.2% 30.9 39.3 50.0 57.8 65.9 17.0 14.0% 193.7 219.3 246.6 270.4 290.4 76.0 6.4% 46.3 54.7 61.7 67.7 71.2 19.3 4.7% Transport and Communications 22.0 23.0 25.1 26.8 28.0 7.0 3.7% Finance and Real Estate 61.2 67.3 78.3 87.6 95.9 25.4 7.7% 47.7 55.3 61.0 65.7 71.0 18.0 6.9% 14.3 16.3 17.3 19.1 20.6 5.3 8.0% 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.8 1.0 7.6% -17.2 -19.0 -22.8 -24.5 -26.1 -6.8 5.3% 3.3 3.2 2.3 1.8 1.6 0.4 -18.1% 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Services Trade, Restaurants and Hotels Government Services Other Services 1 2 3 Household Services Imputed Bank Service Charges Import Duties 1. Includes: Trade, accommodation and recreation 2. Includes: Human Health and social work activities, education and public administration 3. Includes: Professional, scientific and technical activities Source: MDPS and Haver Analytics Note: Numbers in red indicate new data MDPS revised historical National Accounts data in August 2016, affecting historical data going back to 2011 Real GDP (% change, YoY) 2012 2013 Total 4.7% 4.4% 4.0% 3.6% 2.2% 3.9% 1.7% Oil & Gas 1.2% 0.1% -0.6% -0.5% -1.0% 2.6% -2.5% Non-Oil 9.9% 10.4% 9.8% 8.2% 5.6% 5.3% 5.9% Agriculture and Fishing 4.6% 5.9% 25.0% 8.5% 8.1% 7.9% 7.5% Industry 2014 2015 11.3% 10.5% 10.7% 8.9% 5.8% 5.9% 7.4% Manufacturing 11.5% 5.5% 4.2% 3.3% -1.0% -1.2% 0.2% Electricity, Gas and Water 47.5% 11.9% 11.1% 7.0% 4.1% 3.7% 2.1% 8.8% 21.2% 22.8% 17.8% 15.4% 15.9% 17.3% Construction Services 8.9% 11.5% 10.4% 8.2% 5.9% 5.2% 5.5% Trade, Restaurants and Hotels 8.8% 14.8% 12.1% 8.2% 4.0% 3.5% 3.7% Transport and Communications 3.6% 3.7% 9.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.4% 3.4% Finance and Real Estate 10.2% 10.9% 11.9% 10.4% 7.5% 6.4% 7.2% Government Services 10.3% 13.9% 8.7% 6.7% 6.3% 6.0% 5.9% Other Services 8.1% 6.7% 5.5% 8.7% 5.7% 5.6% 6.1% Household Services 6.0% 10.3% 9.2% 8.9% 5.8% 3.5% 4.9% 8.1% 22.0% 16.2% 8.7% 8.4% 7.1% 8.4% 19.9% 0.0% -28.0% -23.2% -11.1% -14.0% -19.9% Imputed Bank Service Charges Import Duties Source: MDPS and Haver Analytics Page 8 of 12
9. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Balance of Payments Balance of Payments (USD bn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current Account Balance 62.0 60.5 49.4 13.8 Q3 16 -1.5 102.2 101.9 95.6 48.8 7.0 Exports 133.0 133.3 126.7 77.3 14.6 Imports Trade Balance (Goods) -30.8 -31.5 -31.1 -28.5 -7.5 Service Balance -14.0 -16.3 -19.3 -15.8 -4.3 Income Balance -12.1 -10.4 -9.3 -3.6 -0.4 Transfer Balance -14.1 -14.7 -17.5 -15.7 -3.8 Capital & Financial Account Balance -44.4 -52.1 -49.2 -19.7 0.9 -6.1 -4.8 -5.5 -0.7 -0.1 -38.3 -47.4 -43.6 -18.9 1.0 Direct Investment (outwards) -1.8 -8.0 -6.7 -4.0 0.5 Direct Investment (into Qatar) 0.4 -0.8 1.0 1.1 0.3 Portfolio investment (net) 2.8 -18.3 -19.9 -16.5 0.8 Capital Account Financial Account Sources: QCB and Haver Analytics; Note: Not all Balance of Payment lines are shown in the table Top 5 Export Destinations (USD bn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Japan 36.9 39.9 33.2 16.0 10.9 Korea 24.7 24.6 24.7 13.5 8.5 India 14.6 13.8 16.0 9.2 7.1 China 6.8 8.5 9.5 5.3 4.5 United Arab Emirates 5.9 5.1 5.4 4.3 3.1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 United States of America 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 4.1 Germany 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.9 United Arab Emirates 2.0 1.9 2.5 2.9 2.7 China 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.8 2.6 Japan 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 Top 5 Import Sources (USD bn) Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, MDPS and Haver Analytics 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mar-17 MoM% YoY% Oil production ('000 bpd) 733.4 733.7 723.9 709.2 656.0 610.0 -1.6% -12.7% Brent Crude (avg) 111.7 108.8 99.5 53.6 45.0 52.5 -6.2% 32.0% Qatar average price* 108.6 111.2 104.5 97.5 50.6 54.6 0.1% 70.6% Dukhan* 109.7 111.8 101.8 98.5 51.7 55.2 1.2% 72.5% Marine* 107.5 110.6 107.1 96.6 49.5 54.0 1.3% 88.8% *Data as of February 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Intercontinental Exchange, JODI and Haver Analytics Page 9 of 12
10. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Budget, Population & Money Government Budget (% of GDP) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Balance 13.8 19.3 12.3 1.2 -9.9 -11.3 -3.6% Revenue 37.0 47.6 45.7 42.7 22.0 24.6 22.4% Expenditure 23.3 28.3 33.4 41.5 31.9 35.9 26.0% Population (m people in Qatar) 2013 2014 2015 Mar-17 MoM% YoY% Total 2.00 2.22 2.44 2.66 -0.5% 5.2% Source: MDPS and Haver Analytics; Monthly data based on number of people in Qatar and annual data based on residency Money Supply (% change, YoY) 2013 2014 2015 2016 Feb-17 19.6% 10.6% 3.4% -4.6% 2.5% M1 16.5% 17.3% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% Quasi-money 20.6% 8.6% 3.9% -6.4% 3.2% Interest rates (%, end period) 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mar-17 QCB deposit 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.25 QCB lending 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.75 5.00 Interbank overnight* 0.77 0.65 0.90 1.16 1.19 Demand deposit* 0.66 0.56 0.33 0.20 0.35 Overdraft* 6.20 5.50 5.61 4.97 4.22 Credit card* 8.36 8.86 9.37 10.66 10.23 Broad money (M2) * Data as of February 2017 Source: QCB and Haver Analytics Page 10 of 12
11. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Banking Sector Snapshot Banking Sector Indicator (In QR mn) 2012 2013 2014 Dec-15 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Change MoM Change YTD Total Assets 820,512 915,911 1,011,702 1,120,739 1,183,070 1,169,431 1,194,233 1,192,320 1,202,214 1,271,766 1,261,940 1,273,729 0.9% 14.2% Total Credit (Loans) 510,048 577,976 653,418 752,630 803,505 790,026 798,502 807,884 821,051 844,011 854,080 872,980 2.2% 13.3% Total Deposits 458,066 548,384 601,074 650,261 685,012 661,640 679,095 676,873 690,846 726,880 736,028 765,795 4.0% 19.8% 111% 105% 109% 116% 117% 119% 118% 119% 119% 116% 116% 114% 478,305 535,657 589,739 664,700 717,173 703,390 712,408 713,453 727,053 748,647 757,654 778,064 2.7% 14.2% 31,743 42,319 63,679 87,930 86,332 86,636 86,094 94,431 93,997 95,364 96,426 94,916 -1.6% 6.5% 79.0% Loan to Deposit Ratio Credit Facilities (Geographic) Total Domestic Credit Total International Credit Domestic Credit Facilities - Public Sector Government Government Institutions Semi-Government Institutions Total Domestic Public Sector Credit 51,746 56,549 64,737 76,822 115,424 99,961 104,793 110,329 124,246 138,683 147,654 165,548 12.1% 139,585 152,516 140,427 140,148 139,367 139,418 140,375 141,817 140,110 139,386 139,807 140,120 0.2% 1.0% 27,222 30,679 28,400 21,312 21,927 21,886 21,853 12,948 12,879 15,806 13,289 13,275 -0.1% -36.5% 218,553 239,745 233,564 238,282 276,718 261,264 267,021 265,093 277,235 293,876 300,750 318,942 6.0% 26.5% 33,280 Domestic Credit Facilities - Private Sector General Trade 36,011 48,257 59,147 60,440 61,467 62,049 64,001 64,450 64,673 63,940 61,048 -4.5% 13.0% 9,339 11,592 12,253 17,207 15,695 15,792 16,236 16,166 16,283 18,113 16,103 16,203 0.6% 12.1% Contractors 16,546 23,331 30,367 37,544 37,139 37,643 38,183 38,743 38,600 38,156 37,528 38,165 1.7% 1.9% Real Estate 85,562 85,388 95,142 121,214 124,850 125,187 126,188 126,654 129,115 130,490 130,720 132,446 1.3% 4.7% Consumption & Others 78,587 87,020 106,363 123,599 121,657 122,799 123,605 124,504 126,358 129,882 133,487 132,736 -0.6% 9.7% Services 36,438 52,570 63,792 67,707 80,675 79,238 79,127 78,292 75,012 73,457 75,126 78,523 4.5% 3.7% 259,752 295,912 356,175 426,418 440,456 442,126 445,387 448,360 449,818 454,771 456,903 459,122 0.5% 7.0% 417,337 514,804 552,955 563,629 546,925 524,152 532,600 527,935 530,940 543,656 536,838 568,364 5.9% 5.0% 40,729 33,579 48,119 86,632 138,087 137,488 146,496 148,937 159,906 183,224 199,190 197,432 -0.9% 101.4% Industry Total Domestic Private Sector Credit Deposit Details (Geographic) Resident Deposits Non-resident Deposits Deposits - Public Sector (Domestic) Government Government Institutions Semi Government Institutions 44,445 68,294 59,252 53,278 66,274 46,400 50,568 50,288 46,467 58,055 47,627 62,619 31.5% 32.1% 104,378 124,390 129,609 116,896 93,897 92,502 91,881 91,385 95,184 93,319 87,074 96,570 10.9% -14.4% 31,906 37,447 39,275 38,931 34,336 35,229 37,289 36,184 36,186 34,546 34,541 36,587 5.9% -16.8% 180,729 230,131 228,136 209,106 194,507 174,131 179,738 177,857 177,837 185,920 169,242 195,776 15.7% -4.1% Personal 116,257 145,841 162,251 148,439 161,573 160,203 160,483 160,023 159,236 161,083 165,035 168,091 1.9% 7.1% Companies & Institutions 120,350 138,833 162,567 206,084 190,846 189,818 192,378 190,056 193,868 196,653 202,562 204,497 1.0% 13.6% Total Private Sector Deposit 236,607 284,673 324,819 354,523 352,419 350,021 352,862 350,078 353,104 357,736 367,596 372,588 1.4% 10.6% Total Public Sector Deposit Deposits - Private Sector (Domestic) Source: QCB Page 11 of 12
12. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 09 April 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Com pany Nam e Price April 05 % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 146.10 (0.61) (1.34) 134,944 11.1 2.5 2.2 Qatar Islamic Bank 102.30 0.39 (1.54) 24,173 11.9 1.7 4.6 Commercial Bank of Qatar 33.95 (0.15) 4.46 13,086 41.3 0.7 8.5 Doha Bank 31.40 (0.16) (6.82) 8,113 10.1 0.9 9.2 Al Ahli Bank 34.00 (2.86) (8.46) 6,812 10.8 1.6 2.8 Qatar International Islamic Bank 68.50 0.74 9.08 10,369 13.2 1.6 5.8 Masraf Al Rayan 42.15 (3.55) 12.10 31,613 15.3 2.5 4.2 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 14.60 0.00 (14.12) 5,256 12.3 0.7 5.1 Qatar First Bank 8.63 0.94 (16.21) 1,726 N/A 1.0 N/A National Leasing 19.05 5.37 24.35 943 187.0 0.9 2.6 Dlala Holding 22.62 0.94 5.26 643 164.6 2.5 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 9.79 0.20 (1.61) 308 23.1 1.0 5.1 Islamic Holding Group Banking and Financial Services 66.60 4.06 9.18 377 91.0 2.6 1.5 Zad Holding 89.50 5.05 0.34 1,171 11.5 1.4 4.5 9.90 3.12 (1.98) 114 N/A 1.2 N/A 238,362 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices Salam International Investment 10.55 0.48 (4.52) 1,206 10.6 0.7 7.6 Medicare Group 95.70 (6.27) 52.15 2,693 41.4 2.7 1.9 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 30.00 1.87 9.29 188 44.1 1.4 3.3 136.00 (0.73) 1.95 13,522 15.3 1.9 4.7 Widam Food Co. 65.20 4.49 (4.12) 1,174 N/A 3.9 5.4 Mannai Corp. 80.00 (1.48) 0.00 3,650 6.8 1.4 5.0 168.40 0.42 (4.05) 3,368 16.9 2.4 5.3 Qatar Fuel Al Meera Consumer Goods Consum er Goods and Services 27,086 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 43.70 (1.80) (1.80) 2,077 10.7 1.4 6.9 Qatar National Cement 78.60 (1.75) 0.53 5,137 10.8 1.7 4.6 110.30 (0.63) (6.13) 66,732 22.6 2.0 3.6 61.20 (2.39) 4.62 7,609 27.5 3.0 1.6 220.00 0.50 (3.08) 24,200 15.7 2.9 3.4 Aamal 14.35 (0.35) 5.28 9,041 19.5 1.2 N/A Gulf International Services 28.30 2.35 (9.00) 5,259 79.6 1.4 3.5 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Industrials 14.93 1.36 (5.51) 18,757 18.8 1.3 4.0 Qatar Insurance Doha Insurance 70.30 (0.28) (4.66) 19,495 17.5 2.4 1.9 16.64 (1.54) (8.57) 832 11.5 0.8 3.6 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 39.20 1.55 (16.60) 3,430 15.6 0.5 3.8 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 21.70 14.21 2.84 554 42.2 1.0 4.6 Qatar Islamic Insurance Insurance 63.00 (7.76) 24.51 945 14.9 2.7 5.6 United Development 19.70 0.61 (4.60) 6,975 11.2 0.6 6.3 Barw a Real Estate 35.75 3.62 7.52 13,911 8.7 0.8 7.0 Ezdan Real Estate 15.80 0.70 4.57 41,909 23.0 1.4 3.2 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development Real Estate 14.43 4.72 0.28 1,591 21.3 1.1 N/A Ooredoo 96.60 (5.29) (5.11) 30,943 14.1 1.4 3.6 9.34 4.01 (0.32) 7,896 N/A 1.7 N/A Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 76.50 (0.65) (19.98) 8,761 12.2 0.6 4.6 Gulf Warehousing Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 52.40 (0.19) (6.43) 3,071 14.7 2.0 3.1 21.25 (1.16) (7.97) 11,773 12.4 2.2 4.7 Industries Qatar Qatari Investors Group Qatar Electricity and Water 138,810 25,256 64,387 Vodafone Qatar Telecom s 38,839 23,605 Transportation Qatar Exchange 556,345 Source: Bloomberg, * Trailing Twelve Months This report is produced by QNB Economics’ Economics Team in collaboration with QNB Financial Services. For questions, or to receive it by email each month, please contact: QNB Economics QNB Economics Tel: (+974) 4453 4642/4643 economics@qnb.com Saugata Sarkar Head of Research, QNBFS Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by Qatar National Bank (“QNB”) and QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”), a wholly-owned subsidiary. QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank, QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNB Economics and QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable, we have not independently verified all such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, no warranties are provided as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and any liability in that respect is declined. QNB/QNBFS reserve the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. They may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: This report is distributed on a complimentary basis to valued business partners of QNB. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.