MENA Market Report - 31 October

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 31, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets remained subdued as sentiments continue to be weak across the region. Although optimism is rising as 2018 depicts pickup in economic activity but there is a sense of cautiousness within markets, which is keeping investors on the sidelines. Further, the third quarter earnings have been either in line or slightly better than street estimates, which should also support markets going forward. For the day, UAE markets continued to drift lower as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were both down by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively with subdued trading activity. The Dubai index was mostly dragged lower by Emaar, which was down by 1.4% for the day. Saudi Arabia started on a positive note, however sellers dominated the market, which dragged the index down by 0.2% for the day, giving away some of the gains recorded on the previous day. Egypt was the best performing index as it was up by 1.2% for the day, adding to the gains recorded on the previous day. Egypt continues to remain the most preferred index in the region during the month of October as it is expected to close on positive note. Qatar also closed higher by 0.8% for the day, recovering some of the losses towards the end of the month. Kuwait was down by 0.7% for the day, second consecutive session of losses. Oman was up by 0.3%, while Bahrain was unchanged for the day. International Markets: US markets was under pressure as DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P were down by 0.4%, 0.03% and 0.3% respectively for the day. European markets ended on a mixed note as FTSE and CAC were down by 0.2% and 0.01% respectively, while DAX was up by 0.1%. At the time of writing the report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were all down by 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Headlines (WW) Inventories, trade shield US economy (ME) Middle East investment in global real estate nosedives 50% since last July (WW) China October factory growth seen easing slightly as smog war begins (GCC) Gulf rail network to operate from 2021 despite regional rift (WW) IMF boosts GDP forecasts for every advanced economy, except UK and Spain (SA) Saudi foreign reserves continue slide, lowest since April 2011 (WW) Calls to raise interest rates are a good sign for the British economy (AE) UAE bank deposits hit record USD 209bn in September (WW) Euro zone banks can cope with low rates for years (AE) New UAE investment law to come into effect by early 2018 (WW) German budget surplus to reach USD 16bn (AE) Dubai investors focus on off-plan property market (WW) Japan retail sales continue rebound amid uncertain consumption outlook (AE) Dubai invests USD 20bn in infrastructure development from 2006 to 2016 (WW) South Korean exports seen rising in October, boosting Q4 output (AE) Abu Dhabi's GDP increases 6.6% during Q2 2017 (CMD) Oil prices rise on expected extension of output cuts (EG) External debt ratios continued to reflect limited risks (CMD) Gold edges down on caution over next Fed chair (EG) Egypt arranges int’l conference for investment opportunities in the internal trade (FX) Dollar pauses after posting biggest weekly rise for 2017 (QA) Turkey's exports to Qatar up 90% since embargo (FX) Spain crisis pressures euro (BH) Bahrain foreign minister calls for freezing Qatar out of GCC (FI) Japanese Government bonds steady with BOJ, Fed in focus (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,629.86 -0.3% -0.6% 1.8% 2.8% ˄ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,456.65 -0.1% -0.2% 1.3% -2.0% ˄ ˅ ˅ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,945.28 -0.2% 0.5% -4.6% -3.7% ˅ ˅ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,561.55 -0.7% -0.9% -1.8% 14.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ Egypt (EGX30) 14,197.21 1.2% 1.7% 2.2% 15.0% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,196.54 0.8% 0.8% -1.4% -21.5% ˅ ˅ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,276.48 -0.0% -0.1% -0.5% 4.6% ˅ ˅ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 4,982.30 0.3% 0.5% -3.0% -13.8% ˅ ˄ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 126 508 394 60 176 139 84,828 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 27 131 101 24 51 45 132,651 Saudi (SASEIDX) 181 274 237 962 1,130 1,013 439,386 Kuwait (KWSE) 98 113 92 55 46 38 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 481 362 285 84 84 65 20,916 Qatar (DSM) 7 7 7 37 67 71 91,391 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 2 2 1 1 1 20,317 Oman (MSM30) 19 17 16 14 9 9 13,800 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 31, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 11.0 11.4 10.3 11.5 11.2 386.2 9.3 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.3 Current 489.3 13.6 12 Previous 600 1.6 2.1 1.6 - - 1.1 0.8 0.9 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 27% 8% 4.8% 5.1% 9% 4.5% 3.7% 3.5% 4% 14.2% 18% 6.0% 5.4% 6% 4.6% 2.8% 0% -2.0% -9% 2% 15.0% -3.7% -18% 0.0% 0.0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -13.8% -21.5% -27% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 31, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 1.98 -2.53% 42 83 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.94 -2.06% 18 36 0 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.56 -1.61% 11,625 6,552 1,459 0 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 8.46 -1.42% 6,897 58,767 122 0 DEYAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 0.55 -0.92% 26,213 14,352 DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) 1.98 14.65% 25 46 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.64 -1.56% 407 263 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 1.00 5.00% 17 17 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.76 -1.32% 35 27 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 5.00 4.60% 9 46 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.40 -1.25% 2,502 6,042 AL KHAZNA INSURANCE COMPANY 0.29 3.45% 135 38 FIRST ABU DHABI BANK PJSC 10.30 -0.97% 4,194 43,410 RAS AL KHAIMAH CERAMICS PSC 2.45 3.27% 155 373 INTERNATIONAL HOLDING COMPANY 1.46 -0.68% 39 57 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) ARABIAN SHIELD COOPERATIVE 40.90 6.72% 777 30,797 TABUK CEMENT CO SJSC 12.82 -6.71% 1,577 20,939 ARABIAN PIPES CO SJSC 11.30 6.19% 5,435 59,620 AL ASEEL CO LTD 67.00 -4.48% 2 141 MALATH COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 14.86 5.92% 3,625 52,358 TABUK AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 13.64 -4.25% 1,651 23,023 AL KHALEEJ TRAINING AND EDU 18.60 5.16% 292 5,298 YANBU CEMENT COMPAY SJSC 27.30 -4.03% 4,246 118,361 RED SEA INTERNATIONAL CO 18.22 5.16% 341 6,064 AL JOUF CEMENT CO SJSC 7.83 -3.96% 1,339 10,700 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) METAL AND RECYCLING CO KSCP 89.99 11.12% 35 3 WARBA INSURANCE COMPANY KSCP 80.00 -12.50% 38 3 AWJ HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 75.00 7.47% 18 1 ENERGY HOUSE HOLDING COMPANY 35.00 -8.57% 65 2 INJAZZAT REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT 82.00 5.98% 0 0 AL MAL INVESTMENT COMPANY KPSC 31.50 -7.30% 344 11 AL MADAR FINANCE AND INVEST 25.40 5.51% 635 16 TIJARA AND REALESTATE INVESTMENT 61.90 -6.30% 3,985 0 NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDING 70.00 4.86% 0 0 INVESTORS HOLDING GROUP CO 17.90 -6.15% 19,843 0 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING 9.80 9.18% 214 2,006 GRAND CAPITAL FOR FINANCIAL 4.93 -9.94% 7 34 NATIONAL COMPANY FOR HOUSING 30.93 7.92% 7 223 NOZHA INTERNATIONAL HOSPITAL 80.00 -9.86% 7 555 ALEXANDRIA NATIONAL COMPANY 4.60 7.39% 5 24 LECICO EGYPT SAE 6.40 -5.31% 8 50 EL SHAMS HOUSING AND URBAN 5.36 6.90% 1,649 8,553 AJWA FOR FOOD INDUSTRIES CO 3.18 -4.40% 1,522 4,951 REAL ESTATE EGYPTIAN CONSORTIUM 12.15 5.76% 71 833 EGYPTIAN TOURAH PORTLAND CEM 21.89 -4.07% 121 2,711 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) OOREDOO QSC 85.42 3.01% 72 6,022 SALAM INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT 7.51 -4.26% 192 1,477 MASRAF AL RAYAN QPSC 35.50 2.54% 238 8,355 QATARI GERMAN COMPANY 7.00 -4.00% 8 54 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QPSC 34.00 2.35% 5 159 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QPSC 51.86 -3.59% 3 134 WIDAM FOOD CO QSC 60.50 2.15% 4 247 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QPSC 11.81 -3.47% 17 207 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 28.02 2.03% 13 369 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 14.50 -3.45% 0 6 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) EMIRATES NBD BANK PJSC 8.10 1.23% 291 0 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.41 1.21% 3,026 1,239 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.90 1.00% 560 AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 1.18 0.85% DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 0.98 0.82% Close * INVEST BANK PSC Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Qatar Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 31, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 79,918 99.90 0.5% 9.2% 6,411 170,789 105.40 83.25 16 1.9 6.0% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,622 18.00 0.0% -4.3% 509 2,496 19.25 17.10 18 3.7 4.4% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 36,319 68.10 0.7% 0.0% 227 4,120 78.90 57.00 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 30,892 121.75 -0.2% -17.8% 194 6,503 157.27 118.50 9 1.5 2.6% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 30,264 10.20 -1.0% 2.1% 4,194 11,647 11.55 8.50 12 1.1 4.4% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,949 64.50 -0.5% 2.4% 2,573 44,255 71.70 56.25 12 2.0 3.5% 7 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 26,621 23.96 -0.7% 7.0% 1,412 9,021 26.05 17.60 11 1.4 2.9% 8 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 25,333 47.50 0.0% 11.5% 200 2,530 58.00 37.00 10 1.5 3.4% 9 DP World Ltd AE 19,713 23.75 0.6% 35.6% 397 2,566 24.60 15.53 19 2.0 1.6% 10 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 16,258 8.34 -1.4% 17.0% 6,897 15,661 8.95 6.37 11 1.4 1.8% 11 Industries Qatar QSC QA 15,784 94.97 0.5% -19.2% 31 804 122.00 85.00 22 1.7 4.2% 12 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 15,642 50.20 -0.8% 28.7% 337 4,507 54.00 37.30 229 2.3 0.0% 13 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,153 775.00 -0.6% 25.2% 1,991 5,099 800.00 561.90 15 1.4 3.7% 14 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 15,093 60.90 -1.0% -18.5% 76 1,231 76.00 59.10 65 5.5 0.0% 15 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,853 55.70 -0.5% 1.6% 337 5,013 78.64 46.40 27 4.0 1.3% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,408 8.20 1.2% -3.4% 291 650 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.9% 17 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,904 22.32 0.1% -8.3% 923 5,492 27.10 19.00 9 1.0 4.3% 18 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,373 597.00 -0.2% 21.6% 1,307 2,578 650.00 431.82 18 1.8 2.6% 19 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 10,350 7.00 0.0% 0.0% 1 1 11.95 1.57 76 5.3 0.0% 20 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,261 7.25 0.4% 5.1% 1,308 2,582 7.68 5.66 9 1.2 5.5% 21 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,099 10.22 0.4% -14.5% 45 122 12.95 9.80 67 1.3 4.9% 22 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 10,000 25.00 -1.6% 0.0% 393 2,620 28.55 18.50 10 1.1 0.0% 23 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 9,584 11.98 0.0% 3.7% 645 2,061 12.06 9.90 11 1.0 5.4% 24 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,321 29.00 0.3% 11.1% 170 1,313 33.40 22.00 10 1.1 3.6% 25 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,310 55.40 1.1% 2.6% 260 3,841 61.75 44.00 14 2.0 5.4% 26 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,222 6.11 0.5% 9.7% 1,697 2,823 6.29 5.01 8 1.2 7.4% 27 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 8,185 2.31 0.0% -11.8% 400 252 2.80 2.25 16 1.8 4.3% 28 Ooredoo QSC QA 7,743 87.99 3.0% -13.6% 72 1,729 116.10 80.00 15 1.3 4.0% 29 Masraf Al Rayan QPSC QA 7,500 36.40 2.5% -3.2% 238 2,383 45.40 33.05 13 2.1 5.5% 30 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 7,126 9.78 2.0% -35.3% 1,259 3,383 16.58 8.88 13 0.9 5.1% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 554,799 3.5% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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