GCC Daily Market Update - 5 February

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 5 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,762.1 25,521.0 6,760.3 7,443.4 12,785.2 5,365.0 118,119.4 23,274.5 32,601.8 3,462.1 35,066.8 (59.9) (665.8) (141.2) (47.0) (218.7) (89.6) (925.0) (211.6) (40.3) 15.1 (839.9) (2.1) (2.5) (2.0) (0.6) (1.7) (1.6) (0.8) (0.9) (0.1) 0.4 (2.3) (2.2) (2.4) (2.7) (1.2) (3.1) (2.1) (1.2) 0.8 (0.9) (0.5) (2.5) 3.3 3.2 5.7 (3.2) (1.0) 1.0 2.4 2.2 9.0 4.7 3.0 8,959.3 7,608.3 4,584.6 3,385.8 6,670.8 5,057.6 1,354.9 1,669.8 3,747.9 (247.7) (47.7) (27.8) (26.5) (14.4) 22.3 (2.8) (0.3) (0.1) (2.7) (0.6) (0.6) (0.8) (0.2) 0.4 (0.2) (0.0) 0.0 (2.7) (0.5) (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) 1.2 0.3 0.3 (2.2) 5.1 5.3 4.2 0.5 4.1 (0.8) 1.7 4.8 2.7 68.6 65.5 2.8 1,333.7 318.8 (1.1) (0.4) (0.0) (10.6) (2.2) (1.5) (0.5) (0.4) (0.8) (0.7) (1.7) 0.0 (4.8) (0.4) (0.3) 1.5 7.2 (3.5) 1.9 (3.5) Source: Bloomberg Global US equity markets ended lower on Friday as the stronger-than-expected US jobs and wages data raised concerns, that Fed may hike rates faster than expected. While weak oil prices, weighed on Energy stocks in S&P 500, disappointing earnings by some major technology companies weighed on Nasdaq. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1.4% at the close on Friday, with miners leading a broad-based retreat. Banking sector, which benefited at the start of the year from a rotation into cyclical stocks, tumbled 1.1%. Disappointing earnings from some major banks also weighed on the sector. In Asia, Japanese benchmark declined 0.9%, weighed by Banking stocks. China's benchmark bucked the broader negative trend, aided by continued rise in coal and steel stocks. Improved earnings in these core sectors have demonstrated the effectiveness of government's structural reforms. GCC Most GCC markets ended lower during yesterday’s trading session, post a stock rout in the US. The Saudi Arabian benchmark declined 0.6%, weighed by weakness in Retailing and Pharmaceutical stocks. Saudi Arabian Mining Co (Ma‘aden) continued to decline after reporting Q4-17 loss. The Dubai benchmark ended 0.8% lower, weighed by weakness in the Real Estate stocks. Emaar Properties fell 1.2% on expectations of facing tougher business conditions if higher US interest rates are passed on through the region’s currency pegs. Qatar The QE index declined 2.7% during yesterday’s trading session weighed by increased selling pressure from gulf and domestic institutional investors, amidst bearish sentiments globally. Concerns over valuations, resulted in investors booking profits on the benchmark, which has witnessed a significant rally in the recent weeks. Trade turnover and volumes increased during the session, with Banking, Real Estate and Industrials sectors together accounting for more than 69% of the total volumes. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 41 exchanged hands of which, 38 declined and 3 advanced. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.4 1.3 4.2 49.3 DSM 20 14.8 1.3 4.3 40.8 9,000 10.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.8 1.7 3.2 1,052.0 8,000 5.0 UAE (ADX) 15.7 1.3 4.4 20.8 UAE (DFM) 22.6 1.2 5.2 34.0 Kuwait (KSE) 16.3 1.1 5.2 30.0 Oman (MSM) 11.8 1.0 5.1 9.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.9 0.8 5.8 1.0 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers National Leasing QOIS Salam Intl. Investment NA NA Top Losers Nakilat Ezdan Holding Group Qatari Investors Group Mazaya Qatar Ooredoo Close Price 10.0 8.2 7.0 NA NA 0.1 0.1 0.1 NA NA 1.0 0.9 0.7 NA NA (7.0) 3.4 1.6 NA NA (35.5) (18.7) (39.7) NA NA 17.4 10.8 31.6 7.6 91.0 (1.1) (0.6) (1.7) (0.4) (4.9) (5.8) (5.4) (5.2) (5.2) (5.1) 8.1 (10.4) (13.7) (16.1) 0.3 (28.1) (28.4) (42.6) (44.8) (12.9) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 42.2 NA 1.2 22.9 96.1 19.8 NA NA NA NA 281.8 196.9 70.5 282.1 112.2 11.9 16.7 15.5 48.8 15.2 Qatar DSM Index 10,000 7,000 9/Nov 15.0 8,959.3 0.0 23/Nov 7/Dec 21/Dec Index Volume (mn) 4/Jan 18/Jan 1/Feb Index Value Closing Level 2,799.7 5,364.4 2,753.7 3,312.2 1,878.7 1,050.1 1,925.6 1D Change (%) (1.6) (1.5) (2.7) (2.3) (4.6) (4.4) (4.4) Buy (%) 50.6 17.7 68.3 18.0 13.7 31.7 Sell (%) 43.0 21.4 64.4 17.9 17.7 35.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 5 , 2018 Alliance Partners issued two bonds for Etihad Airways and other airlines, including Alitalia and Air Berlin, which are both now insolvent. GLOBAL NEWS    Total US nonfarm payrolls increased by 200,000 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged to 4.1% in January-18. The number of unemployed persons reached 6.7mn during the same period. (Source: BLS.gov) Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank has reported 17.7% YoY increase in its net profit to AED 2.3bn (USD 626.2mn) for the financial year 2017, driven by increase in income from fees, foreign exchange, investments and decrease in the cost of credit. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Minister of Infrastructure Development, Dr Abdullah bin Mohammed Belhaif Al Nuaimi, stated that the work on the second phase of the extension of the Emirates Road (part of the Emirate's Ring Road) in Ras Al Khaimah is 55.0% completed and is expected to be operational by Q2-18. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based King Abdullah Economic City has awarded a contract to the Saudi Arabia’s unit of Metito, a water management solution provider. The contract includes designing and construction of a seawater desalination plant which would be powered by solar energy. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Aramco is planning to build a large technology hub inside the country in partnership with Google’s parent company, Alphabet.  US factory orders increased by 1.7% MoM in December-17, driven by increase in durable good order by 2.8%. Non-durable goods order increased by 0.7% MoM during the same period. (Source: Market Insider)  Eurozone’s industrial producer prices increased by 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY in December-17. The average industrial producer prices increased by 3.1% YoY during 2017. (Source: EC.Europe)  Australia’s producer price index increased by 1.7% YoY and 0.6% QoQ in Q4-17, driven by quarterly increase in the prices of Petroleum refining and petroleum fuel manufacturing by 11.9%. (Source: ABS)  (Source: Gulf Times) San Francisco Fed President, John Williams, stated that the Federal Reserve will continue with its plan to gradually increase rates, as the economy is performing as expected. (Source: Bloomberg) Turkey’s total exports rose by 16.3% YoY to USD 12.2bn in January-18. In terms of volumes, Turkish exports rose 9.8% to reach 9.7mn tons during the same period. Among the top five export markets, exports to Germany increased by 18.0%, while exports to the UK, Italy, the US and Spain were up by 11.4%, 17.0%, 20.4%, and 30.9%, respectively. (Source: Trade Arabia)  S&P credit rating agency has affirmed its credit rating for Kuwait at AA and A-1+ for long and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign debt, respectively. The agency retained the stable outlook for the country. (Source: Gulf Base)  Oman based Mawarid Mining Company is planning to invest USD 100.0mn in the development of copper deposits in its Block 1 and 2 concessions in North Al Batinah Governorate. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based Suhail Bahwan Group has signed a Value Added Reseller agreement with Finland based Granlund company to enhance energy efficiency and management in Oman buildings. (Source: Times of Oman) (Source: Hurriyet Daily News)  Turkey and Japan’s eighth round of negotiation on free trade agreement have neared the end. The chief negotiator on behalf of Turkey, said that the FTA will come into effect by end of 2018. (Source: Daily Sabah) GCC NEWS   QATAR NEWS GCC’s sovereign’s international bond issuance reached USD 50.0bn in the year 2017, according to data compiled by NBK. These issuance have helped push GCC issuances (public and private) to more than USD 100.0bn for a second consecutive year. (Source: The Peninsula)  UAE’s import from Turkey has increased by 7.5% YoY to USD 3.2bn for the year 2017. During Q4-17, the imports increased by 10.1% YoY. Qatar’s fiscal and external breakeven oil prices are expected to reach USD 60.0 per barrel and USD 44.0 per barrel, respectively, in 2018, according to the Institute of International Finance. (Source: Gulf Times)  UAE has decided to give financial support worth AED 367.0mn (USD 100.0mn) to the Global Partnership for Education till 2020 in order to improve the education and learning outcomes of 870mn children and young people in 89 developing countries. (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar Chamber and Kazakhstan based Astana International Financial Center are in talks to review their plans in order to enhance cooperation ties between the two countries in the various sectors, especially in the banking and investment fields. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai based Roads and Transport Authority has started the construction of two major bridges as part of its improvement plan of Sheikh Rashid-Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed street intersection. (Source: Trade Qatar’s total insurance premiums amounted to USD 3.0bn, which accounts for 1.5% of the GDP in Q1-17, according to Oxford Business Group report. (Source: Gulf Times)  Doha has signed a declaration of understanding agreement with US city of Charleston. Under the agreement, the two cities will explore new areas of economic development and new trade opportunities in both public and private sectors, to support the exchange of knowledge in planning, construction, health, education and environmental issues. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Arabia)  Dubai based property developer, MAG Lifestyle Development, has signed a deal worth AED 300.0mn (USD 82.0mn) with Seidco General Contracting to be its main contractor for the company’s residential landmark, MAG 230, which is to be developed in Dubailand. (Source: (Source: Gulf Times)  Trade Arabia)  Dubai based consumer electronic retailer, E-City, is planning a major expansion worth AED 67.0mn (USD 18.2mn) across the GCC with an expectation of a 20.0% annual growth in sales for the year 2018. (Source: (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Airways has received the delivery its fourth state-of-the-art, Gulfstream G650ER executive aircraft. This is the fastest ultra-longrange business jet in the world. Post this delivery, Qatar Executive, the Qatar Airway’s private charter service, has a fleet of 12 ultra-modern Gulfstream and Bombardier executive jets. (Source: Gulf Times)  United Development Company announced that the construction works for the first phase of Al Mutahidah Towers at The Pearl Qatar has been completed and is ready for sale. (Source: The Peninsula) Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Al Khaleej Sugar Refinery has signed a deal with the Egyptian government to build a major agro-industrial complex to produce beet sugar, the company’s Managing Director stated. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi based Etihad Airways is exploring various ways to prevent a technical default of some bonds worth USD 1.2bn, which are indirectly linked to the Gulf airline. An Amsterdam based SPV Equity Astad, a Qatar based project management consultancy, has signed an MoU with Petroleum Development Oman Company to enhance bilateral co-operation on building and infrastructure projects in Oman. 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 5 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2493 USD/QAR 3.6415 110.1700 EUR/QAR 4.5493 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4148 JPY/QAR 0.0331 USD/CHF 0.9314 GBP/QAR 5.1520 USD/CAD 1.2429 CHF/QAR 3.9097 AUD/USD 0.7931 CAD/QAR 2.9298 NZD/USD 0.7300 AUD/QAR 2.8881 USD/INR 63.5638 INR/QAR 0.0573 USD/TRY 3.7692 TRY/QAR 0.9661 USD/ZAR 12.0876 ZAR/QAR 0.3013 USD/BRL 3.2191 BRL/QAR 1.1312 FX Commentary The USD ended higher against the basket of major currencies on Friday with dollar index up 0.6% at 89.2. The rally in USD was spurred by data showing stronger-than-expected US jobs data for January-18. Improved wage numbers increased the probability of higher than expected inflation and faster rate hikes, which further benefitted the greenback. EUR weakened on back of broad-based strength in USD, however the weakness was limited, as recent strong data releases has supported the common currency. GBP weakened against the strong greenback, weighed by data showing lower-than-expected growth in UK Construction sector. CAD weakened against its US counterpart, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau commented that the country would be willing to walk away from NAFTA agreement if required. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.44 1.47 1.58 1.79 2.29 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.19 2.27 2.42 2.69 3.02 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.60 1.67 1.89 2.28 2.0% EIBOR 1.28 1.45 1.59 1.83 2.64 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.10 2.30 2.90 NA NA 1.75 1.94 2.38 KIBOR Source: Bloomberg 2.57% 2.15% 4.60% 3.30% 3.37% 3.44% 2.59% 2.78% 2.86% 3.11% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 24.3 (5.1) Turkey 167.8 UK 16.6 (1.8) Brazil 152.3 (50.6) Germany 10.4 (3.9) Egypt 266.9 (110.7) France 18.2 (0.8) Abu Dhabi 52.5 (2.5) Italy 96.6 (39.2) Bahrain 231.4 (13.6) Greece 320.6 (299.2) Dubai 116.0 (2.1) Russia 107.8 (49.0) Qatar 89.3 (2.7) Japan 18.3 (8.5) Saudi Arabia 78.6 (13.1) 2.36% 2.89% 2.79% 2.68% 2.0% 1.50% 2.39% 2.19% 1.99% 2.97% 2.68% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (7.9) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:50 France Markit France Services PMI Jan F 59.3 59.3 12:00 EU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jan F 58.6 58.6 17:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Jan F -- 53.8 18:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Jan 56.7 56 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Saudi Arabian Mining Co Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 3,222.2 38.1 2.3 (104.7) (78.3) (143.1) NA NA NA 560.0 43.5 3.4 706.4 (9.0) (14.5) 304.8 (1.2) (39.1) NA NA NA 607.2 33.5 7.7 (14.8) Alinma Bank Qatar Electricity & Water Co Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Bank Al-Jazira Viva Kuwait Telecom Co United International Transport Al-Mazaya Holding Co Sharjah Cement & Indus. Devpt. Foodco Holding NA NA NA 194.0 27.3 73.4 7.2 3.1 11.1 3.1 26.4 309.7 44.4 9.4 21.6 (38.7) (49.6) (87.2) NA NA NA 0.3 (89.8) 166.1 15.6 14.0 21.4 (9.3) 73.0 NA NA NA 7.6 (57.8) (33.3) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 5 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 25th January 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 3.1 5.7 4.8 5.0 0.0 4.2 6.4 4.3 6.4 4.4 5.9 5.0 5.8 4.7 6.1 0.0 11.0 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.9 5.1 4.8 3.5 4.2 3.8 2.7 6.8 6.1 4.0 4.4 4.6 2.8 3.3 6.0 3.1 6.5 4.3 0.0 7.4 5.2 20.7 0.0 3.0 3.8 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.3 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.4 0.8 2.4 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.9 0.9 1.6 1.1 2.3 2.3 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.5 3.9 0.6 1.5 0.7 1.0 0.6 2.1 1.3 2.6 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.6 1.9 0.7 2.5 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.2 7.2 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.5 44.4 24.1 9.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.6 15.5 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 11.3 9.8 21.8 11.2 6.6 31.5 15.5 31.6 15.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.7 12.3 5.6 12.9 12.0 (H) ( ) 11.9 26.5 16.6 13.6 18.4 10.8 11.9 19.9 31.1 8.5 35.0 61.9 13.7 32.4 11.3 18.3 51.7 9.9 14.5 2.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.2 12.1 12.3 23.1 14.8 14.2 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.5 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 6.0 13.1 5.1 0.7 -0.5 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 2.1 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.7 4.2 1.4 3.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.0 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.7 1.5 2.8 1.9 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 26.4 42.6 8.4 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 19.5 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.6 40.0 62.2 35.6 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 19.0 113.5 43.6 12.5 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 24.4 19.5 20.4 28.9 69.8 22.8 35.1 47.5 11.4 12.7 30.8 17.4 71.1 5.3 23.4 27.9 15.4 117.8 32.5 28.2 Stock Price (QR) 33.5 28.6 14.6 33.0 32.5 13.2 41.9 10.1 7.1 101.9 62.3 139.9 7.8 67.5 80.0 154.6 21.1 115.0 6.5 7.3 74.0 73.0 8.7 19.8 6.3 113.5 14.3 200.0 37.1 44.2 66.0 -13.8 13.0 53.5 45.7 58.0 38.5 11.7 8.2 16.9 16.9 38.5 44.5 18.1 63.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4