GCC Daily Market Update - 8 March

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 8 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,726.8 24,801.4 6,929.4 7,157.8 12,245.4 5,187.8 116,842.4 21,252.7 30,196.9 3,271.7 33,033.1 (1.3) (82.8) 16.4 11.1 131.5 17.6 132.5 (165.0) (313.8) (18.0) (284.1) (0.1) (0.3) 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 (0.8) (1.0) (0.5) (0.9) 0.5 (0.9) 1.1 (1.0) (1.5) (2.5) (1.8) (3.7) (2.1) 0.4 (3.4) 2.0 0.3 8.3 (6.9) (5.2) (2.3) 1.3 (6.6) 0.9 (1.1) (3.0) 8,371.1 7,453.2 4,519.6 3,182.0 6,808.5 4,928.1 1,366.3 1,616.5 3,679.1 (58.2) 15.6 (3.9) (23.0) 2.7 (19.3) (8.5) (1.6) 1.2 (0.7) 0.2 (0.1) (0.7) 0.0 (0.4) (0.6) (0.1) 0.0 (3.3) 0.5 (1.7) (1.9) 0.5 (1.5) (0.3) (0.5) 0.2 (1.8) 3.1 2.8 (5.6) 6.2 (3.4) 2.6 1.0 1.3 64.3 61.2 2.8 1,327.6 311.4 (1.5) (1.5) 0.0 (7.6) (2.3) (2.2) (2.3) 1.0 (0.6) (0.7) (1.9) (0.5) 4.2 0.7 0.2 (3.5) 1.5 (5.9) 1.4 (5.7) Global The US and Asian equity markets inched lower yesterday, as the resignation of the US President’s key economic adviser, Gary Cohn, led to heightened worries about global trade war. In the US, shares of the companies that are the net-importers of metals remained the notable losers. However, the Nasdaq index bucked the overall trend to end higher for the fourth consecutive session. European indices pared earlier losses to end the session in green. The Stoxx Europe 600 and FTSE 100 gained 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark declined 0.8%, weighed by weakness in Banking, Automobiles and Commodities-related stocks. The Chinese Banking stocks edged higher, amid reports that the Central Bank might reduce its foreign reserves for offsetting bad loans in the system. GCC Most GCC equity markets ended lower yesterday, following the resignation of the market-friendly advisor of the US President. The Saudi Arabian benchmark ended 0.2% higher defying the gulf trend, on back of improved sentiments due to steady oil prices in the gulf session. The Dubai benchmark ended 0.7% lower, weighed by weakness in Consumer Staples and Insurance stocks. The Abu Dhabi benchmark ended 0.1% lower, amidst weakness in Investment & Financial Services stocks. Qatar The QE index ended 0.7% lower yesterday, mainly on account of profit booking amongst domestic institutional investors. The market witnessed selling pressure in Real Estate, Insurance, Telecom and Transport sectors. Trade turnover and volumes increased yesterday, with Banking and Telecom sectors together accounting for more than 64% of the total volume. Out of the 45 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 28 declined, 9 advanced and 3 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.7 1.2 5.0 53.6 DSM 20 13.0 1.2 5.0 42.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.5 1.7 3.2 732.6 UAE (ADX) 11.4 1.3 5.3 27.8 UAE (DFM) 11.2 1.2 5.5 55.5 Kuwait (KSE) 15.5 1.0 5.5 25.2 Oman (MSM) 12.0 1.0 5.3 4.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.1 0.8 5.7 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Navigation Zad Holding Co Dlala Holding Widam Food Co Doha Bank Qpsc Top Losers Mesaieed Petrochem Ezdan Holding Group Vodafone Qatar Qatar National Cement Gulf Warehousing Co Close Price 66.0 81.0 11.6 58.0 31.9 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 18.0 0.0 (21.2) (7.2) 11.9 (18.7) (9.0) (47.4) (10.8) 3.2 13.2 8.5 7.8 58.5 40.5 (1.1) (0.6) (0.4) (2.5) (1.4) (7.6) (7.0) (5.4) (4.1) (3.2) 5.0 (29.6) (3.4) (7.0) (7.9) (11.0) 469.1 15.2 (44.2) 395.9 13.1 (14.3) 2,021.5 NA (28.6) 2.8 11.7 (21.1) 12.9 11.0 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 197.4 16.0 0.9 10.2 63.5 18.1 18.8 9.7 302.8 9.7 Qatar DSM Index 9,500 15.0 8,371.1 9,000 10.0 8,500 5.0 8,000 7,500 10/Dec 0.0 24/Dec 7/Jan 21/Jan Index Volume (mn) 4/Feb 18/Feb 4/Mar Index Value Closing Level 2,671.4 5,236.9 2,671.9 3,029.5 1,613.6 1,048.5 1,918.2 1D Change (%) (0.8) (1.8) (0.9) (2.0) (4.0) (1.9) 0.2 Buy (%) 45.3 12.2 57.5 14.6 27.9 42.5 Sell (%) 37.5 22.9 60.4 13.4 26.2 39.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 8 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS     US trade deficit increased by USD 2.7bn over a month to USD 56.6bn in January-18, driven by monthly decrease in exports by USD 2.7bn to USD 200.9bn, while imports fell by USD 0.1bn to USD 257.5bn during the same period. (Source: BEA) US President, Donald Trump, is planning to offer a 30-day exemption from planned tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to Canada and Mexico, which could be extended based on progress in NAFTA discussion. (Source: Reuters) Bank of Canada has maintained its key lending rate at 1.25%, citing slower growth and protectionist US trade policies which could impact the global economy. (Source: Bank of Canada) Euro zone’s gross domestic product increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.6% QoQ and 2.7% YoY in Q4-17. Exports increased by 1.9% QoQ, while imports increased by 1.1% QoQ during the same period.  Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is planning to create the largest integrated refining and chemical plant, in Ruwais, UAE. This would increase the production of petrochemicals by 3 times to 14.4mn tons per year by 2025. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Adnoc Refining has awarded a contract worth USD 473.0mn to Samsung Engineering in order to deliver a new power and water generation plant for the company. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi based NMC Health has reported a 38.2% YoY increase in its net profit to AED 768.4mn (USD 209.2mn) for FY-17. The company’s revenue also increased by 31.3% YoY to AED 5.9bn (USD 1.6bn) during the same period. (Source: NMC Health)  Ras Al Khaimah based pharmaceutical manufacturer, Julphar, reported a 10.6% YoY decrease in its revenue to AED 1.3bn (USD 353.9mn) for the FY-17, driven by challenging market environment. (Source: Julphar)  Japan’s gross domestic product increased by 0.4% QoQ and 1.6% YoY in Q4-17, driven by increase in business spending by 1.0% QoQ and private consumption by 0.5% QoQ. (Source: Bloomberg) Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has ordered the government to resolve the dispute with banks, with regards to the Islamic tax liabilities worth SAR 9.8bn (USD 2.6bn), in an attempt to avoid any negative impact on the economy. (Source: Zawya)  China’s foreign exchange reserves decreased by 0.9% MoM to USD 3.1tn in February-18, driven by weakness in non-dollar currencies and falling global asset prices. (Source: Xinhua) Sharjah based developer, ARADA, has appointed Zaha Hadid Architects to design its central hub, the centerpiece of Aljada, worth USD 6.8bn. (Source: Arabian Business)  China’s trade surplus climbed considerably to USD 33.7bn in February18, driven by increase in exports by 44.5% YoY, while imports increased by 6.3% YoY during the same period. (Source: III) Oman based Arabia Falcon Insurance Company has announced the opening of its IPO by offering 25.8mn shares at a price of 190.0 baizas per share. The IPO would be closing on 2nd April-18. (Source: Times of Oman)  Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) has introduced a secured private network to connect all retail banks in the country with CBB. This would act as a primary communication hub to perform Real Time Gross Settlement, while retaining the existing SWIFT network as a contingency backup. (Source: BNA)  Kuwait’s total value of awarded projects decreased by 28.0% YoY to KWD 4.0bn (USD 13.3bn) during the year 2017, driven by stronger growth in power and water sectors which was offset by the decline in the projects in other sectors, mainly transport and construction. (Source: EC Europe)     Turkey’s central bank has kept its late liquidity window rate at 12.75% and repo rate at 8.0%, while it would keep its monetary policy tight due to double digit inflation. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS   The UAE’s National Media Council has announced new sets of regulations for electronic media in order to govern all online activities, including e-commerce, publishing and selling of print, video, and audio material and advertising. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai Department of Economic Development has signed a partnership agreement with Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization for providing offers on added value packages to the business community. (Source: Trade (Source: NBK)  Arabia)  Dubai based Arabtec Holding’s wholly owned subsidiary, Arabtec Construction has been awarded a contract worth AED 424.0mn (USD 115.4mn) from Damac Properties to construct 916 villas in the Akoya Oxygen Master Development, Dubai. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based developer, Danube Properties, has introduced its affordable luxury housing project, Jewelz, worth AED 300.0mn (USD 81.6mn) and which would offer 463 residential units. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Gulf Navigation Holding has received an approval from its board of directors to raise capital by offering rights issue to the company’s existing shareholders without offering the remaining shares to the public. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Emirates Airlines has appointed Citi and Standard Chartered Bank to act as global coordinators and joint lead managers for its sukuk issuance worth up to USD 1.0bn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based cinema operator, VOX Cinemas, has signed a distribution deal with Saudi Arabia based production company, Myrkott, to premier animated feature film, Masameer, across MENA. (Source: Arabian QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s Public Works Authority, Ashghal, has signed a MoU with the American National Centre for Asphalt Technology so as to provide road workers with the training and recycling workshops along with research collaboration and knowledge transfer on the latest recycling technologies. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ashghal has announced the completion of the construction works of roads that connect Al Shamal Road with the truck parking area located near the Industrial Area in Al Shamal city. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s central bank has sold Treasury bills of three tranches worth QAR 900.0mn (USD 247.3mn) with maturities of 3, 6 and 9 months. This includes QAR 500.0mn of 3 month at a yield of 2.52%, QAR 250.0mn 6 month at 2.63% and QAR 150.0mn of 9 month at 2.9%. (Source: Reuters)  Doha bank has received approval from shareholders to issue bonds USD 2.0bn under Euro Medium Term Note programme in order to source cost effective long-term funds. (Source: Gulf Times)  The first asset-backed Sukuk issuance of Masraf Al Rayan’s subsidiary Al Rayan Bank worth GBP 250.0mn is credit positive according to Moody’s credit rating agency. (Source: Gulf Times) Business)  Abu Dhabi’s consumer price inflation increased by 4.7% YoY in January-18, driven by implementation of 5.0% VAT in the region during the same period. (Source: DED) Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare has signed a contract worth KWD 29.0mn (USD 96.0mn) with Turkey based Limak Holding in order to construct and maintain a total of 3,260 housing units and power stations in the nation. The project is expected to be completed within 730 days. (Source: Trade Arabia) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 8 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2441 USD/QAR 3.6415 106.0700 EUR/QAR 4.5304 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3926 JPY/QAR 0.0343 USD/CHF 0.9435 GBP/QAR 5.0712 USD/CAD 1.2912 CHF/QAR 3.8596 AUD/USD 0.7825 CAD/QAR 2.8202 NZD/USD 0.7283 AUD/QAR 2.8495 USD/INR 64.3900 INR/QAR 0.0566 USD/TRY 3.8016 TRY/QAR 0.9579 USD/ZAR 11.8356 ZAR/QAR 0.3077 USD/BRL 3.2433 BRL/QAR 1.1228 FX Commentary The USD ended marginally lower against a basket of currencies with dollar index settling at 89.577. Departure of the market friendly chief economic advisor to the US President weighed on the greenback, as it increased bets about a possibility of a global trade war. The losses in the greenback were limited after the US Fed’s Beige book provided an encouraging assessment about the US economy and inflation. The GBP ended flat, after the EU’s version of the Brexit deal showed a gap between the two sides. The CAD weakened against its US counterpart. However, optimism that the US might exempt from imposing import tariffs on Canadian metals limited the losses. Against the safe haven currencies like JPY, the USD inched lower as the resignation of Gary Cohn left investors jittery. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.45 1.48 1.71 2.05 2.51 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.25 2.28 2.39 2.58 3.00 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.61 1.72 1.94 2.34 2.0% EIBOR 1.19 1.41 1.68 2.06 2.68 BMIBOR 1.40 1.70 2.23 2.60 3.16 NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.38 KIBOR 2.63% 2.24% 4.79% 3.41% 3.52% 3.63% 2.64% 2.80% 2.88% 3.15% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 23.4 0.1 Turkey 171.7 7.4 UK 18.5 (3.6) Brazil 153.9 (29.4) Germany 11.3 (3.9) Egypt 270.9 (86.6) France 19.0 (3.8) Abu Dhabi Italy 100.9 (44.4) Greece 349.7 Russia 109.0 Japan 21.9 (12.6) 2.53% 2.0% 1.64% 2.90% 2.82% 2.76% 2.46% 2.29% 2.12% 2.98% 2.71% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 58.6 2.5 Bahrain 249.6 12.2 (6.0) Dubai 101.8 (24.0) (31.7) Qatar 84.6 (6.9) Saudi Arabia 80.4 (6.0) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 10:00 Germany Factory Orders MoM Period Survey Prior Jan (1.80%) 3.80% 15:45 Eurozone 15:45 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate Mar-08th 0.00% 0.00% ECB Marginal Lending Facility Mar-08th 0.25% 0.25% Mar-08th 15:45 Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate -0.40% -0.40% 16:15 Canada Housing Starts Feb 215.0k 216.2k 16:30 Canada New Housing Price Index MoM Jan 0.10% 0.00% 16:30 Canada Building Permits MoM Jan -1.50% 4.80% 16:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Mar-03rd 16:30 US Continuing Claims Feb-24th 17:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Mar-04th -- 56.2 02:50 Japan Money Stock M2 YoY Feb 3.30% 3.40% 02:50 Japan Money Stock M3 YoY Feb 2.80% 2.90% 220k 210k 1919k 1931k Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Saudi Arabia Refineries Co NA NA NA 5.6 NA NA Filing & Packing Materials 37.4 (16.8) 8.1 1.0 (70.2) 93.2 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 8 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 28th February 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 3.5 0.0 9.2 3.5 6.2 5.3 5.0 0.0 4.4 6.7 5.0 6.4 5.1 6.8 5.3 6.0 4.4 6.2 0.0 0.0 7.0 5.8 6.0 6.8 0.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.5 2.4 6.8 7.5 4.8 4.1 5.4 3.9 4.7 6.1 4.3 7.4 5.5 0.0 7.6 6.2 4.0 0.0 3.2 4.2 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.2 0.7 2.1 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.6 0.9 1.4 1.0 2.1 2.2 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.5 3.2 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.7 2.4 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 5.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 10.0 18.9 19.9 9.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.9 13.9 161.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 10.9 8.4 26.3 9.8 5.8 29.6 15.0 34.0 14.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.1 6.0 13.2 12.2 38.5 11.5 18.9 16.7 11.7 15.5 11.2 12.0 16.1 21.4 16.5 25.4 13.3 13.8 19.7 7.6 14.3 49.0 9.6 10.9 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.6 11.1 11.6 22.7 14.1 12.2 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.7 10.3 2.5 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 13.1 4.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.5 3.5 4.1 1.9 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.7 1.5 2.8 1.9 2.9 BV/Share (QR) 26.4 42.1 8.4 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 39.9 62.2 35.6 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 12.9 19.0 113.5 43.3 12.5 19.8 10.4 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.3 20.8 28.9 70.8 23.4 35.3 48.6 11.4 12.7 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 32.0 28.3 12.1 32.7 28.9 12.0 37.6 10.1 6.7 96.0 59.9 119.5 7.8 59.3 75.0 149.7 22.7 112.1 6.1 5.9 60.9 78.0 8.9 17.6 6.1 103.3 14.5 171.1 31.5 43.9 60.0 12.3 13.9 38.8 46.8 57.0 33.7 9.1 7.7 16.5 87.0 8.7 40.7 17.0 62.6 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4