MENA Daily Morning Brief - 16 April

Transcription

1. Research @Markaz.com Daily Morning Brief Equity Watch Indicators GCC Markets S&P GCC Composite Saudi (TASI) Qatar(QE Index) Abu Dhabi (ADI) Kuwait All Share Index (PR) Kuwait All Share Index (TR) Dubai (DFMGI) Bahrain (BAX) Oman(Muscat SM) Developed markets MSCI World Index U.S. (S&P 500) U.K. (FTSE) Japan (Topix) Emerging markets MSCI EM Index China (Shanghai Indx.) India (Sensex) Value Traded & Advances/Decline Ratio M. Cap Close Change (USD Bn) Price % MTD % YTD 3-Yr 5-Yr P/E % CAGR CAGR TTM 349 2,066 125 123 90 90 57 21 12 92 6,814 8,852 4,127 4,767 5,644 1,897 1,308 3,596 -1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -2.2 0.1 -0.2 5.4 4.7 7.9 10.5 -1.2 -0.2 7.1 -3.1 4.3 -20.8 -18.8 -15.1 -18.7 -24.1 -22.2 -31.4 -18.7 -9.7 34,986 24,899 1,879 5,118 1,960 2,783 5,598 1,434 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3 0.0 5.8 7.7 -1.3 2.2 -16.9 2.0 -13.8 5.8 -25.8 -8.6 -16.7 -0.7 2.1 6.0 -4.4 -2.0 16 20 13 13 4,774 4,634 771 888 2,946 30,380 -0.9 -0.6 -1.0 4.7 2.2 3.1 -20.3 -2.7 -7.8 -4.4 -26.4 1.1 -3.2 -8.1 1.3 11 12 16 Blue Chip Watch Companies April 16, 2020 M.Cap (USD Bn) Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco 1,634 62 SABIC Saudi Telecom 49 36 Al-Rajhi Bank NCB 29 United Arab Emirates 36 ETISALAT 35 FAB 14 Emirates NBD 13 DP World 11 Intl. Holding Co. Kuwait 16 NBK 15 KFH 7 Zain 5 Boubyan Bank 3 Agility Qatar 46 Qatar National Bank Industries Qatar 12 10 Qatar Islamic Bank 8 Masraf Al Rayan Mesaieed Petro 7 -2.4 -5.4 -1.0 -5.9 -5.0 -5.9 -3.2 -2.4 -1.6 1.8 -18.2 -14.2 -1.0 -1.3 -13.4 -10.5 15 16 13 11 12 12 5 10 8 MTD % YTD % 3-Yr CAGR 5-Yr CAGR P/E TTM 31 78 93 54 36 -1.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 1.8 11.4 6.3 -0.2 3.7 -12.9 -16.9 -8.6 -17.9 -26.9 -7.9 10.6 8.6 12.8 -2.2 8.1 6.3 -4.0 19 42 17 13 9 15 12 8 16 22 -2.1 -2.0 -4.7 0.3 10.3 7.4 21.2 16.0 3.6 49.1 -7.9 -22.8 -35.5 18.7 246.8 -5.4 1.9 2.4 -9.7 130.7 6.0 -0.8 -2.7 -8.1 81.3 15 11 3 11 76 737 642 480 475 553 -2.8 -2.0 0.4 -2.5 -1.6 2.4 1.6 -7.0 -2.4 -2.8 -27.7 -20.8 -20.0 -22.2 -32.4 7.3 13.6 1.1 12.0 7.4 2.3 6.4 -0.8 8.1 1.9 13 18 10 24 11 18 7 16 4 2 -1.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 -2.7 8.9 4.7 8.7 4.1 35.3 -11.1 -32.3 1.8 -3.8 -21.3 7.8 -14.4 15.6 -3.4 10.3 5.1 -13.8 8.7 -4.9 -5.7 12 16 13 13 21 UAE KSA UAE KSA KSA Network International Holdings Gulf Bank Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Banque Saudi Fransi Emirates NBD Bank Country UAE Kuwait KSA KSA UAE 2.5 2.0 3.0 9.1 14.4 -9.4% -7.3% -5.0% -4.8% -4.7% 145 53 8 1,293 164 47 80 37 138 UAE 116 132 52 32 48 122 Qatar 66 46 43 3 - 70 Bahrain 2 44 19 11 14 3 Oman 3 121 27 21 73 10 Total 1,251 713 333 200 180 1,636 US Treasuries (In %) Country 52-Week Current 2019 149.1 124.3 298.1 84.0 127.9 386.0 488.6 - 58.5 34.8 91.0 44.9 36.8 266.0 167.1 3,065.7 KSA Abu-Dhabi Dubai Kuwait Qatar Oman Bahrain Lebanon High Low 232.4 155.0 324.6 84.0 181.0 637.0 501.6 13,893.4 58.5 34.6 90.6 30.4 36.5 199.0 158.5 769.0 Interest Rate Watch Deposit Rate 3M Rate % Spread % U.S. 0.8 Kuwait 1.2 KSA** 1.1 UAE 1.0 Qatar 0.8 Oman 2.3 Bahrain 1.8 Euro Region -0.4 Last FOMC Meeting Date: Mar 15 M. Cap Change MTD YTD (USD Bn) % % % 10.7 10.3% 49.1% 246.8% 2.6 3.0% 4.0% -27.9% 1.7 2.7% -6.0% -21.1% 1.3 2.2% 8.8% 4.2% 3.7 1.7% -2.9% -12.8% M. Cap Change (USD Bn) % 206 119 5-year CDS Spread Top 5 Losers*  Companies 945 Kuwait KIBOR Yield Curve (%) Top 5 Gainers*  International Holding Company Saudi Investment Bank National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah Saudia Dairy and Foodstuff Company National Shipping Co. of Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia LIBOR (In %) Change % Country Value Traded Listed ADTV – 1M Advances Declines Unchanged (USD mn) companies (USD mn) Yield Curve & CDS Watch Close Price Companies Companies 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.0 1.5 1.0 -1.2 Commodity Watch MTD % YTD % 2.4% -2.9% 21.9% 10.3% 16.0% -37.8% -33.3% -39.8% -24.8% -35.5% Precious Metals CAGR – Compounded annual growth rate | ADTV – Average daily traded value | M. Cap - Market capitalization TTM – Trailing twelve months | YTD – Year to date | * Mcap > USD 1bn Note: **12yr for Saudi Arabia TR = Total Return\PR = Price Return; Total Return is Price Return + Dividend Return Market News Gold $/oz Silver $/oz IPE Brent $/bbl Bitcoin/USD Currency Watch USD (1 EUR =) Yen (1 USD =) KWD (1 USD =) CNY (1 EUR =) CBOE VIX index 5YR Rate 10YR Rate 0.3 0.6 1.9 2.6 2.7 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.0 9.9 10.0 4.4 7.5 -0.7 -0.4 Next FOMC Mt Date: Apr 28/29 52-Week Close Price 1,715.7 15.5 27.7 6,619.0 Change % -0.7 -2.1 -6.5 -3.8 MTD % 9.2 10.8 21.8 3.1 YTD % 13.1 -13.2 -58.0 -7.7 High Low 1,727.7 19.6 74.5 12,921 1,270.3 12.0 22.7 4,841.7 1.1 107.5 0.3 7.1 40.8 -0.7 0.3 0.9 0.3 8.2 -1.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.2 -23.7 -2.7 -1.0 2.8 1.5 196.4 1.1 112.2 0.3 7.2 82.7 1.1 102.3 0.3 6.7 11.5 ➢ Real GDP among Middle East oil exporters could contract by 4.2% this year, a sharp downward revision from the 2.1% growth projected in October 2019. - IMF ➢ G20 to suspend debt service payments for the world’s poorest countries through the end of the year. This would free up more than $20 billion for the countries - Reuters ➢ April oil demand forecasted to dive by 29 million bpd to levels not seen in 25 years. No output cut by producers could fully offset the near-term falls facing the market. - IEA ➢ Asia’s economy likely to suffer zero growth this year for the first time in 60 years -IMF This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre K.P.S.C (Markaz), which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report cannot be quoted without the prior written consent of Markaz. Any user after obtaining Markaz permission to use this report must clearly mention the source as “Markaz “. 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