GCC - Equity Market Monitor

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage August 7, 2016 8/7/2016
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 15 .0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) Daily Return 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% UAE (Abu Dhabi) 0.4% -0.2% Kuwait Wtd -0.7% YTD Return 8.6% -9.6% 10.2% 5.1% -2.8% -8.3% 2.4% -4.9% MTD Return 0.4% -0.8% -0.3% -1.1% 0.2% -0.2% 0.7% 0.1% QTD Return 1.6% -3.9% 4.9% 0.6% 1.8% -0.4% 8.1% 3.4% Source: Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Kuwait - PI Qatar Bahrain 1.3% 0.1%
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Week Previous Week Turnover: RO 11.430 million (c. US$ 29.7 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Banking 1,797,757 15.73% BUY SELL NET 9,502,698 9,250,890 251,808 Oman and Emirates Inv Hldg 1,067,757 9.34% GCC 745,439 381,593 363,845 Al Jazeera Steel Industry 784,046 6.86% Arabs 132,454 103,725 28,729 Omantel Services 702,020 6.14% 1,050,019 1,694,402 (644,382) Al Anwar Holding Inv Hldg 661,340 5.79% OMANIS OTHERS MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,479,655 8.7 1.2 5.4% MSM 30 5,869.79 5,848.21 0.37% 1.60% 8.57% Financial 3,118,965 7.4 0.9 5.0% Financial 7,514.92 7,485.49 0.39% 3.42% 16.02% Industrial 1,131,493 10.8 1.6 4.6% Industrial 7,519.61 7,474.24 0.61% 2.88% 11.05% Services 3,018,529 10.5 2.0 5.8% Services 3,202.60 3,200.74 0.06% -1.02% 4.81% MSM Shariah 3,479,883 11.6 1.9 5.3% MSM Shariah 891.32 888.54 0.31% 0.56% 4.20% 8/7/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA %MTD 8,255.4 1.9 3.4 2,147.5 0.5 2.2 5,357.6 0.2 0.0 21,042.0 0.3 0.3 513.2 -0.3 0.3 76,065.7 -0.1 0.9 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 110.4 0.0 -0.3 90.9 0.0 -0.3 1,513.2 0.0 -0.4 432.3 0.0 -0.4 488.7 -0.4 -1.0 428.7 -0.5 -1.3 475.9 0.0 -0.2 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index) MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index %QTD %YTD 18.9 2.7 1.3 4.7 1.9 -1.0 17.8 0.5 6.3 10.7 -3.7 6.0 -0.5 -0.5 4.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.6 0.5 -4.4 -4.7 4.6 -4.7 -3.4 -1.5 -3.6 Closing % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 0.5 -0.3 3.8 3.2 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,667.2 0.1 -1.3 3.4 -1.5 MSCI Europe- USD 1,452.5 0.4 -1.2 2.9 -4.6 885.5 1.1 1.4 6.2 11.5 Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 628.4 -1.1 -2.2 -0.5 15.1 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 238.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 6.2 -5.6 6.7 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 83.9 %QTD %YTD S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,182.9 18,543.5 5,221.1 57,661.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.6 4.0 3.4 7.8 11.9 6.8 6.4 4.3 33.0 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX 6,793.5 4,410.6 10,367.2 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 -0.7 0.3 4.4 4.1 7.1 8.8 -4.9 -3.5 Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 16,254.5 22,146.1 28,078.4 2,976.7 2,017.9 935.5 -1.9 1.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.9 4.4 6.5 4.0 1.6 2.4 0.5 -14.6 1.1 7.5 -15.9 2.9 23.6 %QTD %YTD 0.1 -0.2 -1.9 1.4 -1.8 -1.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.7 -4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -2.5 2.1 5.1 18.1 -11.3 -1.5 2.2 -2.5 -0.1 -0.9 4.6 5.1 -2.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.3 -0.2 0.9 0.9 Global Currencies 1,716.7 MSCI EM Index %MTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD Closing % Chg Americas Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Index -0.1 -0.5 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg c. 9 AM Muscat Time Index Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD US Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar 96.194 1.109 1.317 101.820 1.307 8.567 0.981 6.660 7.755 66.776 0.762 13,117.000 2.999 0.385 3.673 3.751 0.302 3.642 0.377 0.5 -0.4 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 -0.8 -1.1 0.2 -1.2 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8/7/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 4
5. Commodities Performance Index Petrochemical Performance Closing % Chg %MTD %QTD Index %YTD Closing %MTD %QTD %YTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy 735.0 13.1 13.1 18.6 NYMEX Crude 41.8 -0.3 0.5 -14.7 -1.4 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 605.0 0.8 0.8 6.1 ICE Brent Crude 44.3 0.0 1.7 -11.7 2.6 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 610.0 0.8 0.8 6.1 Benzene CFR India Spot 615.0 0.8 0.8 6.0 Crude Oil, Oman 41.9 -0.2 5.2 -12.3 34.3 NYMEX Natural Gas 2.8 -2.2 -3.6 -5.0 10.0 NYMEX Gasoline 137.6 0.6 4.3 -8.7 Condensates (in USD/ MT) -5.2 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,335.6 -1.9 -1.1 1.0 25.8 Silver Spot 19.7 -3.2 -3.1 5.3 42.2 Platinum Spot 1,145.9 -1.1 -0.2 11.8 28.3 Palladium Spot 697.3 0.1 -1.8 16.7 23.9 1,633.5 1.3 -0.2 -0.6 8.9 LME Copper-Spot 4,779.3 -0.7 -2.8 -1.3 1.6 LME Zinc-Spot 2,264.3 0.5 1.0 7.7 42.2 LME Lead-Spot 1,776.5 -0.4 -2.0 -0.5 -1.1 LME Nickel-Spot 10,676.0 1.0 0.8 13.6 21.6 596.0 Corn - Active Contract 334.3 416.0 0.0 0.2 -0.7 42.9 1.0 -2.5 -10.0 -12.7 3.2 2.0 -6.6 -15.5 CBOT - Soya bean 974.5 1.9 -2.8 -15.5 10.4 636.0 0.0 -3.0 -3.6 33.1 -16.2 -9.7 Naphtha C&F Japan 353.0 2.0 -16.0 -14.0 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 359.9 2.7 -12.2 -5.6 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 37.9 2.1 -16.3 -13.8 985.0 -1.5 -1.5 10.7 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,055.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,050.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 700.0 1.5 1.5 19.7 Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 745.0 -2.6 -2.6 10.4 2EH CFR South East Asia 785.0 -3.7 -3.7 13.0 DOP CFR Far East Asia 805.0 -2.4 -2.4 1.9 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) 9,030.0 3.3 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,135.0 1.8 6.4 1.8 #N/A N/A 9.1 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,170.0 3.5 3.5 11.4 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,190.0 4.4 4.4 12.3 Urea (in USD/ MT) Urea Price (RMB/ MT) Shipping Baltic Dry Index -8.0 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Agriculture Wheat - Active Contract 349.7 Ethylene Spot Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel European Naptha Olefins (in USD/ MT) Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam 1,235.0 -2.4 -6.4 -14.8 UREA Cornbelt 215.0 -2.3 -10.4 -27.1 UREA Middle East 185.0 0.0 -11.9 -22.9 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 359.2 -2.7 -8.3 -16.4 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg c. 9 AM Muscat Time 8/7/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Monetary policy designed to tackle liquidity issues in banking sector : CBO (Source: Oman Observer)  Offering a succinct summary of CBO’s approach to developing the banking sector in Oman, Hamood al Zadjali stressed that, “A well-calibrated and progressive approach to banking sector reforms has led to the emergence of a strong and resilient banking system over the years.  Despite the challenges facing the economy, the future prospects of the banking sector remain promising taking into account the pace of economic diversification, accommodative monetary policy, sustained domestic demand with a growing young population, and the enhanced role of the private sector in the development process.”  He also touched on the country’s rapidly expanding Islamic banking segment and mentioned that the combined assets of Islamic banks now comprise about 8% of the Omani banking system’s consolidated assets, worth RO 2.5 billion.  Hamood al Zadjali also spoke about how CBO’s monetary policy is designed to tackle liquidity issues in the banking sector, which is a pressing problem in the Gulf.  He added that, “It was recently decided to permit banks to invest in unencumbered treasury bills, Government Development Bonds, and Oman Government Sukuk to be part of eligible reserves in the statutory reserve requirements up to a maximum of 2% of deposits, effective as of April 2016.  The reserve requirement remains unchanged at 5% of the banks deposit base.” He continued, “It is envisaged that this would make available liquid funds approximately to the order of RO 400 million in the hands of banks.” Passenger Traffic through NFC Grows 22 percent (Source: ONA)  Statistics released by the National Ferries Company (NFC) showed an increase in the number of passengers on board the ferry trips to 122,699 passengers till the end of July 2016, constituting an increase of 22% compared to 100,591 passengers in the same period of 2015.  The NFC statistics showed that January 2016 witnessed the highest number of passengers to reach 23,544 passengers, followed by July with 22,828 passengers, May with 18,638 passengers while the number of transported passengers during April stood at 17,118, in March reached 14,258 passengers whereas in February by 14,022 passengers and June with 12,291 passengers.  The statistics indicated an increase in the total number of vehicles shipped on board of the ferries till the end of July 2016 to reach 29,849 vehicles, an increase of 14 percent, compared to 26,188 vehicles in the same period in 2015. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Oxy ’s global Q2 output buoyed by Oman’s Block 62 production (Source: Oman Observer)  International oil and gas exploration and production firm Occidental Petroleum Corporation has credited rising hydrocarbon output from Block 62 in North Oman to an uptick in its international production during the second quarter of this year.  A ramp-up in output from Block 62 also known as Habiba Block coupled with record production from its Al Hosn operations in Abu Dhabi (UAE), helped lift Oxy’s international production by 24,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day in Q2 1016, as per the company.  Total company production for on-going operations increased to 609,000 BOE per day from 590,000 BOE per day in the first quarter. The increase was driven by record production in Abu Dhabi and Oman.  According to Oxy, two new gas fields — Fushaigah and Maradi Huraymah — have been brought online in Block 62. A gas plant was also successfully brought on stream at Maradi Huraymah.  An additional 7,000 BOE per day came from Block 62 in Oman, where a recently-constructed gas plant was put online to process production from two newly-developed gas fields. The plant was completed on time and on budget. This enabled us to achieve record production in Oman this quarter.  “The increases in production from Al Hosn (Abu Dhabi), Block 62 (Oman), and ISSD (Qatar), along with strong year-over-year production growth from Permian Resources (US), will help us reach the higher end of our 4 – 6 % production growth guidance for 2016,” the President & CEO stated. Oman’s inflation under control despite fuel price deregulation (Source: Gulf Base)  Oman’s inflation is well under control, despite the deregulation of prices of petroleum products earlier this year.  The country’s inflation rate, calculated based on the change in the consumer price index (CPI), edged up by 1.1% in May 2016, from the same month in 2015. However, the average growth in inflation for the first five months of 2016 ending May was lower at 0.6%, compared with the same five-month period last year.  The Sultanate’s government had deregulated prices of petroleum products in mid-January, resulting in a 38.3 % rise in the price of Super grade petrol to 166 baisas per litre in August (against 120 baisas before mid-January), a 36.8% growth in regular grade petrol prices to 156 baisas per litre (against 114 baisas before mid-January), and a 21.9% jump in diesel prices to 178 baisas (against 146 baisas prior to midJanuary). GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Consolidation trend to prevail… During the previous trading week, the GCC markets ended on a mixed note, with correction seen in the Saudi, UAE and Bahrain amid volatility in oil prices. MSM ended marginally higher for the week on the back of stock specific buying interest seen from the local institutions. We anticipate the local and the GCC markets to open on a flattish note during the day and to reveal consolidation trend during the coming sessions. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE News S &P affirms Abu Dhabi’s AA/A-1+ rating; outlook stable (Source: Argaam)  The Abu Dhabi government's large net asset position continues to provide a considerable buffer to mitigate the impact of commodity market volatility on the economy, said S&P Global Ratings.  The credit rating agency has affirmed its 'AA' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the emirate with a stable outlook.  S&P said the ratings are supported by Abu Dhabi's strong fiscal and external positions. The exceptional strength of the government's net asset position provides a buffer to counter the negative impact of oil price declines on economic growth and government revenues, as well as on the external account, the agency added.  “We expect the emirate will maintain its extremely strong net fiscal asset position, which we project at about 260 percent of GDP on average over 2016-2019. This is one of the highest net government asset ratios among the sovereigns we rate.” Abu Dhabi malls maintain strong 95% occupancy during Q2 (Source: Arabian Business)  Prime retail developments in Abu Dhabi have continued to display stability in both rental and occupancy rates, according to a new report by real estate consultancy firm CBRE.  Its Q2 2016 Abu Dhabi MarketView said all major malls in the UAE capital have maintained high occupancy, in excess of 95 percent, driven by the local population and growing tourist numbers.  However, domestic and external economic challenges have impacted consumer confidence, prompting retail operators to put their business investments and expansion plans on hold in the short term.  According to the Q2 Abu Dhabi MarketView, the average prime office rentals remained flat at AED1,800/sq m/year, although, landlords are starting to offer tenants more flexibility with their leasing and payment terms as they strive to maintain and build tenant loyalty in order to uphold occupancy rates. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Milaha reports H1 2016 results (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Navigation (Milaha) has reported a net profit of QR553 million ($151.7 million) for the six months (H1) ended June 30, compared to QR651 million for the same period in 2015.  Operating revenues reached QR1.387 billion, compared to QR1.507 billion for the same period in 2015, while operating profit was posted at QR371 million for H1 2016, as against QR442 million for H1 2015.  Earnings per share reached QR4.86 for the first half of the year, compared to QR5.73 for the same period in 2015.  Milaha Maritime & Logistics’ overall revenue declined 7%, despite an increase in container volumes. Port Services was negatively impacted by lower ancillary services revenue and non-containerized general cargo and RORO. In addition, pricing pressures faced by the Container Shipping unit dampened the unit’s results. Kingdom’s consumer confidence index remains flat in Q2 (Source: Gulf Base)  Saudi Arabia’s consumer confidence score remains flat from the first quarter at 104, according to consumer confidence findings from Nielsen.  At the current level, Saudi Arabia is among the 12 countries globally to reach or exceed a score of 100, which is the optimism benchmark.  Job prospect sentiment improved two percentage points (50 percent), personal finance sentiment remains bright (64 percent favorable) while immediate-spending intentions have reduced by four percentage points (45 percent). Property slowdown continues in Riyadh, Jeddah in Q2 (Source: Arabian Business)  Real estate markets in Riyadh and Jeddah continued to see a slowdown in activity during the second quarter of 2016 as lower oil prices soften demand, a new report has said.  JLL's Q2 2016 Riyadh and Jeddah Real Estate Overview said declines have been seen in rents and sales prices in the Saudi capital while Jeddah prices have also slumped during the quarter.  Further delays have been seen in the completion of projects in Jeddah, despite increased efforts being made to address the shortage of affordable housing, JLL said. It added that the continuing slump in residential transactions (with sale volumes down a further 5 percent this quarter) showed the pace of demand growth is slowing. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 8/7/2016 GBCM Morning Briefing 11