GCC Daily Market Update - 29 March

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 29 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,358.6 20,701.5 5,407.2 7,343.4 12,149.4 5,046.2 90,181.7 19,202.9 24,345.9 3,252.9 29,409.5 17.0 150.5 32.9 49.9 153.4 28.8 486.7 217.3 152.2 (14.0) 172.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.6 (0.4) 0.6 (0.2) (0.5) 1.4 1.1 2.7 3.9 3.1 0.4 2.5 0.3 2.3 5.3 4.8 11.2 2.8 5.8 3.8 15.4 0.5 10.7 4.8 10.5 10,461.8 6,872.8 4,469.7 3,447.0 7,051.8 5,543.1 1,377.6 1,652.6 3,134.4 33.3 20.6 4.4 (7.4) 19.6 (60.7) (5.2) (9.3) 17.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 (0.2) 0.3 (1.1) (0.4) (0.6) 0.6 (2.2) (1.4) (1.8) (5.1) 4.0 (4.1) 2.1 0.3 1.7 0.2 (4.7) (1.7) (2.4) 22.7 (4.1) 12.9 4.9 7.6 51.3 48.4 3.1 1,255.6 266.9 0.6 0.6 0.0 (0.1) 4.4 1.1 1.3 1.4 (0.0) 1.7 (7.5) (10.2) 11.2 0.1 (1.3) (9.5) (9.7) (17.1) 9.0 6.5 Source: Bloomberg Global Most of the global indices closed in green on Tuesday. In US, Dow snapped its losing streak, as a slew of positive US economic indicators, allayed concerns on delay in Trump’s stimulus plans. While investor sentiments hits its highest level in 16 years, US home prices also gained at the fastest pace in 31 months. A sharp decline in trade deficit in February, supported the rise. Stocks of Financial sector benefitted from rise in 10-year Treasury yields, while Energy stocks tracked gains in oil prices. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up by 0.6%, with Media stocks leading advancers. Basic resources also moved higher as the sector recovered from a two-week low after a slip in copper prices. In Asia, Hang Seng rose by 0.6% because of improved revenue outlook for gambling companies, as per a report by Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. and rise in Banking stocks. GCC Gulf indices closed on a mixed note on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark added 0.3% as Saudi Automotive surged 4.1% in an unusually heavy trade. Riyad Bank and Saudi Public Transport closed 1.9% and 3.0% respectives as these stocks went ex-dividend. Dubai’s index retreated 0.2%, however Emaar Malls bucked the negative trend to close 3.6% higher, after it avoided a bidding war with Amazon for acquisition of Souq.com. In Kuwait, Kuwait Insurance Co sank 3.6 percent as it went ex-dividend but the market index gained 0.3%. Qatar QE index advanced 0.3%, with Telecom sector leading advancers, aided by gains in Vodafone Qatar, which was the most heavily traded stock on the bourse. Increased investments by foreign institutions and gulf individual investors boosted the benchmark, amidst rising oil prices. Trade turnover and volumes expanded in the bourse, where telecom, banking and real estate sectors together accounted for about 89% of the total volumes. More than 57% of the stocks ended in green, with high volumes witnessed in Industries Qatar, Vodafone Qatar and Commercial Bank. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.2 1.6 3.7 104.7 DSM 20 15.5 1.5 3.7 81.3 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.0 1.6 3.5 773.0 UAE (ADX) 12.7 1.4 5.4 44.6 UAE (DFM) 14.7 1.2 3.9 43.1 Kuwait (KSE) 21.3 1.3 3.3 88.3 Oman (MSM) 11.0 1.1 5.2 9.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.0 0.8 5.5 1.0 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Islamic Holding Group Vodafone Qatar Zad Holding Co Al Khaleej Takaful Grp QGMD Top Losers Qatar General Ins & Re Qatari Investors Group Qatar & Oman Inv Co Medicare Group Masraf Al Rayan Close Price 68.2 9.6 89.6 21.0 9.8 3.2 0.4 3.6 0.7 0.2 4.9 4.4 4.2 3.4 2.5 11.8 2.1 0.4 (0.5) (3.3) 39.0 61.9 9.8 98.9 43.1 (2.0) (1.5) (0.2) (1.1) (0.5) (4.9) (2.4) (2.1) (1.1) (1.0) (17.0) 5.8 (1.9) 57.2 14.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. (13.1) 401.1 93.2 (22.2) 5,793.2 NA (1.3) 0.4 11.5 (21.9) 28.6 40.9 (24.7) 65.7 NA (24.9) 13.6 (22.7) (10.9) 21.1 3.6 81.1 2.3 114.3 458.1 15.6 27.8 23.0 42.8 15.6 Qatar DSM Index 60.0 11,000 40.0 10,461.8 10,500 10,000 3/Jan 20.0 17/Jan 31/Jan 14/Feb Index Volume (mn) 28/Feb 14/Mar 0.0 28/Mar Index Value Closing Level 3,036.4 6,450.2 3,316.2 4,316.1 2,390.3 1,221.9 2,333.8 1D Change (%) 0.2 0.1 0.7 (0.5) 0.5 0.7 (0.1) Buy (%) 43.0 14.4 57.4 14.3 28.4 42.6 Sell (%) 48.1 25.9 74.0 16.4 9.7 26.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 29 , 2017 permission from SAMA for a full bank branch license. GLOBAL NEWS   Global merchandise trade is expanding at its fastest pace for nearly seven years in volume terms. Trade grew by 2.4% in the three months to January, compared to the three months preceding it, according to CPB Netherlands Bureau for Policy Analysis. The bounce has been led by emerging markets, which increased their exports by 4.2% and imports by 4.0%. (Source: FT) US goods trade deficit fell 5.9% MoM to USD 64.8bn in February-17 as a weakness in imports was in line with recent moderation in consumer spending. Inventories at retailers rose 0.4% MoM to USD 616.1bn and stocks at wholesalers rose 0.4% to USD 594.1bn. (Source: BBC) (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia and Jordan have signed 15 new economic agreements including USD 3.0bn worth of investment in Jordan. Planned projects include reconstruction and rehabilitation of a north-south highway in Jordan and setting up a power plant on Jordan's eastern border. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia based NCB Capital had partnered with Fidelity International to launch a real estate vehicle with a total investment of USD 300.0mn. (Source: Zawya)  Oman based Al Anwar Holding has sold 1.30mn shares of Falco Insurance at a price of OMR 1.876 per share. Out of the total sale proceed of OMR 2.432mn, 10% will be deposited in escrow account, which will be released after 1 year and the remaining OMR 2.189mn will be received on the settlement date. (Source: Times of Oman) Bahrain based Batelco is aiming to enhance its presence in Saudi Arabia by implementing projects which includes the deployment of four new Point of Presence (PoPs) in Saudi Arabia connected through a different cable system to Batelco’s diverse global network. (Source:  German public debt fell by 0.8% YoY to EUR 2.006tn (GBP 1.73tn) at the end of 2016, with the government on track to bring down debt to below 60% of economic output by 2020. (Source: Reuters)  Moody's said that the Chinese economy would face heightened risks from a potential future property downturn, as around 25% to 30% of China's GDP is connected to demand from the property and construction sectors. (Source: Moody's)   The China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has given two of its largest members, Brazil and South Africa an extra 12 months to complete the formal process for joining the institution after they missed a deadline at the end of last year. (Source: FT)   Bahrain based NASS Corporation announced 5% cash dividend of paid up capital amounting to BHD 1.075mn on its 215.077mn shares (excluding treasury shares of 4.923m) held by the shareholders for the year 2016. (Source: News of Bahrain) Japan retail sales rose 0.1% YoY in February-17 which is much less than 1.0% YoY growth in January-17 as consumers cut back on food and durable goods after employers offered the lowest spring wage increases in four years. (Source: Reuters)  Kuwait trade surplus retreated to 11 year low of KWD 4.7bn (14% of GDP) as oil prices remained weak. Oil exports receipts declined by 14.1% YoY to KWD 12.5bn for the period. (Source: Kuwait Times)  Bank of Japan board member, Takehiro Sato said labor market reform and other measures to boost Japan's growth potential must accompany monetary easing to raise the country's low long-term inflation. (Source: Reuters)  Trade exchange between Kuwait and Malaysia reached USD 620.0mn in 2016. Kuwait’s exports to Malaysia were worth USD 450.0mn and imports from Malaysia were worth USD 180.0mn for the period. (Source: Trade Arabia) Gulf Base)  GCC NEWS  The total value of 1,381 active transport projects in Gulf region rose by 1% MoM to AED 1.39tn in February-17, according to a report by BNC Network. Rail Sector had the major share of USD 190.4bn (about 50%) followed by road construction with USD 121.4bn (nearly 32%). Kuwait Oil Company has awarded USD 1.3bn engineering, procurement and construction contract to British based oilfield services company- Petrofac Ltd for Burgan oil field in South-East Kuwait. (Source: Reuters) QATAR NEWS  Qatar's stellar growth and its ongoing economic diversification efforts offer "significant and remarkable" opportunities for Britain to advance and enhance its cooperation with the country, Qatar’s Prime Minister said. (Source: Qatar Tribune) (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE Universities will be receiving Grants of AED 398.5mn (USD 108.5mn) by Siemens to develop the skills required to drive the country’s digital transformation. (Source: Construction Week )   UAE average oil production reached 3.089mn bpd in 2016. A total of 889.6mn barrels of crude oil were produced in 2016 driven by the performance based strategy developed by ADNOC. The production capacity reached its all-time high of 3.22mn bpd in December-16. Qatar sees Britain’s exit from the European Union as an opportunity to boost supplies of liquefied natural gas to the world’s fifth-largest economy and is open to investing in British energy assets, the Energy Minister of Qatar said. (Source: Gulf news)  Qatar Investment Authority announced the launch of a secondary public offering of its American depositary shares of Banco Santander. QIA holds approximately 5.5% of the total outstanding shares of Santander Brasil and intends to sell approximately 40% of its position. (Source: Zawya)   UAE have reduce fuel prices for the month of April. Prices per liter for Super 98 was reduced to AED 1.95 from AED 2.03 while Special 95 was reduced to AED 1.84 from AED 1.92. The price of diesel was also reduced to AED1.95 per liter from AED2.02. (Source: Arabian Business) (Source: CNW)  Abu Dhabi based Zones Corp, the largest developer and operator of purpose-built industrial zones in the UAE is planning to develop an integrated auto hub, ‘Rahayel City’ at an estimated cost of AED 1.6bn (USD 435.0mn) in Abu Dhabi. (Source: Gulf Construction Online) Qatar’s budget deficit is expected fall to 5% of the country’s GDP in 2016, and then shrinking further through to 2019, mainly due to increasing hydrocarbon receipts and the ongoing consolidation of current spending, according to Samba Financial Group. (Source: Gulf Times)  Saudi Arabia based Islamic Development Bank approved financing of USD 714.7mn for new development projects in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Lebanon. (Source: Saudi Gazette)   Saudi Arabia Capital Market has received an application from Citi group to acquire license for conducting capital market business in Saudi Arabia. Going forward, Citi group also plans to pursue  Qatar Tourism Authority and the Qatar Financial Centre have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at facilitating the establishment of business events companies in Qatar. (Source: Gulf base) Qatar Airways received the Airline of the year award at the 2017 Air Transport Awards. The airline was recognized for its innovation, service, hospitality and leading product design. (Source: Gulf times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 29 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0844 USD/QAR 3.6413 111.1500 EUR/QAR 3.9486 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2480 JPY/QAR 0.0328 USD/CHF 0.9925 GBP/QAR 4.5443 USD/CAD 1.3383 CHF/QAR 3.6688 AUD/USD 0.7633 CAD/QAR 2.7208 NZD/USD 0.7013 AUD/QAR 2.7794 USD/INR 64.5450 INR/QAR 0.0564 USD/TRY 3.6581 TRY/QAR 0.9954 USD/ZAR 12.9921 ZAR/QAR 0.2803 USD/BRL 3.1413 BRL/QAR 1.1592 FX Commentary USD gained against basket of major currencies with dollar index up 0.6% amidst a hawkish stance by Fed Vice Chairman, backed by a slew of positive economic indicators, which included strong US consumer confidence, falling trade deficit and improved home prices. While consumer confidence hit a 16 year, home prices also rose to a 31 month high demonstrating buoyant demand. Weakness in EUR and GBP also lent support to the index. Both currencies turned negative as investors turned cautious as UK PM braced to trigger Article 50 of the EU Constitution. GBP was further impacted after Scotland’s parliament backed a vote for independence. CAD ended slightly weaker against its US counterpart after Bank of Canada stuck to its dovish outlook and indicated that increasing rates would lead to recession. The currency pared some losses aided by recovery in oil prices. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.92 0.94 0.98 1.15 1.80 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.11) 1.44 1.51 1.73 1.99 2.68 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.11 1.31 1.73 2.21 2.0% EIBOR 0.63 0.84 1.02 1.42 2.13 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.85 2.53 NA NA 1.31 1.56 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.97% 1.30% 2.83% 3.09% 3.35% 1.98% 2.25% 2.42% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.46% 3.03% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 24.9 (1.1) Turkey 237.3 UK 28.7 (5.2) Brazil 234.0 (41.9) Germany 17.3 (0.9) Egypt 343.9 (133.5) 2.0% 2.39% 2.23% 2.08% 2.64% 1.63% 2.13% 1.0% 0.0% 0.89% 2 Yrs 1.68% 1.45% 1.24% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (29.1) 43.9 15.9 Abu Dhabi 45.3 (29.7) Italy 173.4 26.1 Bahrain 227.3 (154.3) Greece 931.9 (85.2) Dubai 117.4 (47.5) Russia 175.3 (37.0) Qatar 66.0 (27.5) Japan 26.2 (8.0) Saudi Arabia 101.4 (62.6) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 05:30 Japan Small Business Confidence Mar - 47.7 08:30 France Consumer Confidence Mar 100 100 08:30 Italy Economic Sentiment Mar - 104 09:00 Italy Manufacturing Confidence Mar 106 106.3 09:00 Italy Consumer Confidence Index Mar 106.6 106.6 13:30 UK Mortgage Approvals Feb 69.1k 69.9k 14:30 UK Money Supply M4 MoM Feb - 0.90% 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar-24th - (2.70%) 16:00 Russia CPI WoW Mar-27th - 0.00% 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD Mar-27th - 1.00% 17:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Feb 2.50% (2.80%) 02:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Mar-24th - (¥580.4b) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 0.5 (62.6) (23.4) 11.3 1.4 (55.3) (2.7) (2.6) (136.5) Oula Fuel Marketing Co Al Suwadi Power Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 29 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.7 0.0 0.0 9.7 1.5 5.1 4.6 2.6 0.0 4.6 5.9 2.2 5.1 3.1 5.0 3.0 5.4 3.3 4.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.7 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.4 1.6 6.7 4.6 3.6 2.9 3.5 1.8 3.9 5.1 2.3 7.1 3.1 0.0 6.4 4.3 3.5 0.0 2.8 3.1 4.7 4.6 4.4 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.9 2.6 0.9 2.7 0.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.7 2.4 1.4 1.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.7 4.0 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.3 2.9 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.8 2.4 0.5 3.0 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.1 26.6 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.6 94.1 12.4 15.6 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 13.0 11.0 23.0 12.2 6.9 42.7 16.8 43.8 15.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.5 13.1 7.0 13.2 19.8 76.9 22.7 19.1 15.8 27.8 10.9 10.9 20.0 40.3 11.9 19.0 15.6 16.1 18.2 8.6 23.3 21.1 11.2 15.7 14.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.5 15.0 12.4 12.3 12.6 14.8 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.5 11.7 2.3 10.0 0.7 8.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.8 0.7 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.3 0.5 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.3 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 9.0 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.8 56.5 36.1 70.1 21.6 70.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.7 16.8 108.5 43.6 12.5 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 24.8 21.1 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 36.4 46.9 11.4 13.2 30.8 17.3 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 35.0 34.5 23.4 31.0 68.2 14.7 43.1 19.0 8.6 102.4 67.5 147.0 9.8 80.6 98.9 167.7 30.0 135.9 9.8 10.5 66.2 89.6 14.5 27.7 110.7 15.1 221.0 61.9 44.5 79.0 21.0 17.2 71.0 39.0 68.3 35.5 15.9 14.3 19.7 99.5 9.6 52.5 21.4 76.2 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4