MENA Market Report - 10 April

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1. MENA Morning Report Monday , April 10, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: The MENA region ended the first trading session of the week on a negative note after closing the previous week in green. There is a lot of mixed feelings within the regional markets as positive sentiments building up from the upcoming earnings is being offset by the unrest in the region. Hence, the markets are likely to move sideways until key corporates start announcing good results in the coming days. For the regional markets, six out of the eight indexes closed in red, while two ended in green for the day. UAE markets ended on the losing side as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were down by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively for the day. In Dubai, the market breadth was skewed toward losers as there were a total of 25 stocks in red, while 7 in green and 1 unchanged for the day. Saudi Arabia ended on a negative note as it was down by 0.2% for the day, which was mostly dragged lower by selling pressure seen in the latter half of the day. The index was mostly dragged lower by energy and banking sector stocks despite the oil prices rise back to $55 levels. Egypt was the worst performer as it was down by 1.6% for the day, which has turned the monthly performance into red. Kuwait also closed lower as it was down by 0.2% for the day, in line with the regional sentiments. Qatar and Bahrain were the only two indexes to close in green as they were up by 0.5% and 1.6% respectively for the day. Oman was down by 0.3% for the day, continuing the dismal performance to remain the worst performer for the year in the region. International Markets: At the time of writing the report, Asian markets have opened on a mixed note as Nikkei and Hang Seng are up by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively, while Shanghai is down by 0.2%. Headlines (WW) Wall Street sees Fed balance sheet normalization plan by year end (SA) Saudi Arabia's outreach programme will aid economy (WW) Bank of England's Carney calls for UK-EU deal on bank rules after Brexit (SA) Sovereign fund to invest in new Saudi entertainment city (WW) US trade deficit drops sharply to USD 43.6 billion in February (SA) Slow growth to take center stage at 'Top CEO Awards 2017' (WW) UK consumer slowdown underway, caution needed on rates (SA) Saudi readies debut dollar sukuk with US risk disclosure (WW) China's economy to grow by 6.8% in Q1 (SA) Saudi banks overcome liquidity crunch but profits falling (WW) China Investigates Regulator of Fast-Moving Insurance Industry (AE) New rental law: Dubai property market overhaul in pipeline (WW) Europe admits G20 economies will miss extra growth target (AE) Dubai firms move to renegotiate commercial leases to cover VAT (WW) RBI keeps policy rate on hold, keen to drain system's excess cash (AE) Business licenses in Dubai increase 650% over last 25 years (CMD) Bearish Reversal In Gold Price And Silver Price (EG) Egypt cautiously revamps bloated subsidy system (CMD) Crude Oil Prices to Average USD 52.50/b this Year (QA) Qatar Telecom sector's share of GDP up 0.4% (FX) US dollar net longs fall to five-week low (QA) Qatar's private sector deposits surge to USD 98.61 billion (FX) Sterling's fate hangs on tone of Brexit negotiations (QA) Qatar growth expected to strengthen in 2017 (FI) US government bonds shrug off hawkish FOMC minutes (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,554.96 -0.3% -0.3% 2.1% 0.7% ˄ ˅ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,591.41 -0.5% -0.5% 3.3% 1.0% ˄ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,058.58 -0.2% -0.2% 0.8% -2.1% ˄ ˅ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 7,015.30 -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 22.0% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 12,895.12 -1.6% -1.6% -0.8% 4.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,509.88 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% ˄ ˅ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,374.75 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 12.6% ˅ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,598.26 -0.3% -0.3% 0.9% -3.2% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 187 494 530 66 191 192 83,437 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 107 157 152 36 73 64 136,202 Saudi (SASEIDX) 129 194 245 754 980 1,117 442,788 Kuwait (KWSE) 367 507 329 203 142 97 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 350 327 375 110 92 95 20,035 Qatar (DSM) 7 11 9 151 101 83 133,322 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 4 5 4 2 3 3 20,992 Oman (MSM30) 10 20 17 7 12 10 16,771 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , April 10, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.8 386.2 8.8 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 Current 489.3 11.3 9.3 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.5 - - 0.9 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait 27% 4.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.2% 3.2% 0.0% Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Average 12.6% 9% 4.5% 1.0% 0.7% -2.1% 0.0% Egypt Oman 0% Qatar Bahrain -3.2% -9% 0% Dubai Bahrain 22.0% 0.7% 1.9% 2% Qatar 18% 4.0% 4% Egypt Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 6% Previous 600 12.8 11.9 11.1 12 PB Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , April 10, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ARAB INSURANCE GROUP BSC 1.66 -6.63% 55 94 15,561 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.91 -4.29% 3,196 2,974 6,824 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.47 -4.08% 25,466 38,231 9 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.52 -3.29% 70 108 84 ARAMEX PJSC 5.20 -2.31% 1,206 6,344 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) NATIONAL MARINE DREDGING PSC 4.70 -10.00% 2 7 978 ABU DHABI SHIP BUILDING PJSC 2.92 -4.45% 0 1 11,454 6,418 RAS AL KHAIMAH CERAMICS PSC 2.17 -2.30% 495 1,087 7,155 4,653 NATIONAL BANK OF ABU DHABI PJSC 11.25 -1.78% 1,401 15,909 1.09% 144 659 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.57 -1.75% 2,010 1,156 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) TRADE UNION COOPERATIVE INSUR 18.10 6.63% 982 17,216 NATIONAL AGRICULTURE DEV 33.60 -4.46% 4,383 150,726 AL AHLIA FOR COOPERATIVE INSUR 12.25 6.53% 2,641 31,363 AL-OMRAN INDUSTRIAL AND TRADING 29.80 -2.68% 4 133 DEVELOPMENT WORKS FOOD CO 93.00 4.30% 7 600 ALINMA BANK SJSC 15.00 -2.67% 22,270 338,622 NATIONAL GAS AND INDUSTRIALI 34.40 3.20% 494 16,731 SAHARA PETROCHEMICAL CO SJSC 15.80 -2.53% 2,030 32,487 SAUDI PUBLIC TRANSPORT COMPANY 15.15 2.97% 5,201 77,664 BAAZEEM TRADING COMPANY CJSC 33.50 -2.39% 78 2,652 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) KUWAIT BUILDING MATERIALS MANU 116.00 8.62% 0 0 REAL ESTATE ASSET MANAGEMENT 600.00 -25.00% 1 0 BAYAN INVESTMENT COMPANY KSCP 51.00 7.84% 13,850 681 AUTOMATED SYSTEMS CO KPSC 295.00 -6.78% 0 0 SAFAT GLOBAL HOLDING CO 37.50 6.67% 5,016 182 NATIONAL CONSUMER HOLDING 104.00 -6.73% 4 0 ASIYA CAPITAL INVESTMENTS CO KSC 38.50 6.49% 14,695 549 ACICO INDUSTRIES COMPANY KSCP 305.00 -6.56% 338 107 ENERGY HOUSE HOLDING COMPANY 40.50 6.17% 1,247 49 CONTRACTING AND MARINE SERVICES 64.00 -6.25% 3 0 Close DoD % Volume Value Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) EGYPT GAS CO SAE 74.64 9.43% 82 5,830 ROWAD TOURISM CO SAE 4.65 -7.74% 33 159 AL BARAKA BANK EGYPT SAE 12.93 9.20% 654 8,096 ISMAILIA DEVELOPMENT AND RE 4.09 -5.62% 25 106 ALEXANDRIA MEDICAL SERVICES CO 36.69 9.02% 0 9 WADI KOM OMBO FOR LAND 6.36 -5.50% 6 42 SOUTH CAIRO AND GIZA MILLS 23.05 8.76% 3 63 ARAB ALUMINUM CO SAE 16.29 -5.16% 7 114 NATIONAL CEMENT CO SAE 9.11 8.67% 72 627 MISR FERTILIZERS PRODUCTION CO 80.34 -5.02% 51 4,230 Close DoD % Volume Value Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) AHLI BANK QSC 34.05 2.64% 0 13 WIDAM FOOD CO QSC 64.40 -5.28% 26 1,729 MASRAF AL RAYAN QSC 42.55 1.53% 955 40,338 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QSC 18.70 -3.37% 472 8,977 QATAR INSURANCE CO SAQ 71.40 1.40% 40 2,810 QATARI GERMAN COMPANY 9.95 -3.32% 20 203 QATAR NATIONAL BANK SAQ 148.50 1.35% 118 17,396 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 20.57 -2.77% 5 99 INDUSTRIES QATAR QSC 110.70 0.99% 127 14,011 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 45.40 -2.64% 0 5 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) MARKA PJSC 1.26 4.13% 85 103 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.99 3.52% 0 NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.95 2.05% 3,535 TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 2.39 1.26% 4 EMIRATES NBD BANK PJSC 8.25 0.48% 10 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.50 14.00% 141 66 FUJAIRAH CEMENT INDUSTRIES CO 1.13 5.31% 888 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.57 3.51% SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.66 3.03% UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 4.60 Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Egypt Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , April 10, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 81,404 101.75 1.0% 11.2% 2,596 70,449 102.00 74.25 17 1.9 3.9% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 43,100 18.20 0.8% -3.2% 672 3,333 20.20 17.15 18 3.7 4.4% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 38,187 150.50 1.3% 0.0% 118 4,876 157.27 121.36 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 37,869 71.00 1.1% -2.1% 576 10,914 74.00 51.00 17 2.4 5.6% 5 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 32,790 11.05 -1.8% 10.6% 1,401 4,217 11.55 7.60 12 1.2 4.1% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,626 63.75 -0.4% 1.2% 1,396 23,730 67.50 48.60 13 2.0 3.5% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 26,445 23.80 -0.8% 6.3% 1,145 7,266 25.80 14.30 47 1.6 2.9% 8 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 20,534 38.50 -1.0% -9.6% 1,326 13,610 46.30 32.00 8 1.3 4.2% 9 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,581 111.80 1.0% -4.9% 127 3,907 122.00 94.50 23 2.0 3.6% 10 DP World Ltd AE 17,845 21.50 -0.8% 22.8% 106 619 22.25 15.53 18 2.0 1.8% 11 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,854 68.00 0.0% -9.0% 287 5,204 76.00 46.00 83 6.2 0.0% 12 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 16,266 11.00 0.0% 0.0% 3 8 11.95 1.57 452 8.9 0.0% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,201 71.25 0.7% 4.0% 281 5,344 71.50 51.50 28 4.3 1.3% 14 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,603 7.49 0.3% 5.0% 2,091 4,265 7.79 5.95 10 1.3 2.0% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,601 700.00 0.0% 13.1% 1,151 2,645 723.81 523.81 14 1.3 4.1% 16 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,683 40.70 0.2% 4.4% 104 1,128 43.80 27.80 119 1.7 0.0% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,546 8.29 0.5% -2.4% 10 23 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.8% 18 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,564 15.87 0.4% 5.0% 1,095 4,772 20.24 14.63 23 1.4 3.2% 19 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,147 20.90 -1.2% -14.2% 238 1,326 25.20 15.90 8 1.0 4.5% 20 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,476 10.60 0.5% -11.3% 333 942 13.15 9.90 77 1.4 0.0% 21 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,413 550.00 1.9% 12.0% 2,717 4,906 572.73 400.00 15 1.7 2.8% 22 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,654 6.82 -1.2% -1.2% 178 331 7.68 5.66 9 1.2 0.0% 23 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,356 2.64 -0.4% 0.8% 796 572 3.10 2.47 18 2.1 3.8% 24 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 9,188 61.25 0.8% 13.4% 322 5,257 61.75 37.00 15 2.1 4.9% 25 Ooredoo QSC QA 9,107 103.50 0.0% 0.0% 12 330 116.10 81.50 15 1.5 0.0% 26 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,901 43.20 1.5% 14.9% 955 11,336 44.20 32.10 16 2.6 4.6% 27 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,740 21.85 -0.7% -12.6% 210 1,222 25.90 16.40 8 1.0 3.2% 28 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,452 26.30 0.4% 0.8% 127 894 27.80 18.00 9 1.1 4.0% 29 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,240 10.30 0.0% -10.8% 822 2,258 11.80 8.55 9 0.8 6.3% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,832 5.82 0.2% 4.5% 2,142 3,394 6.29 4.90 9 1.2 7.7% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 569,205 3.1% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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