MENA Market Report - 13 April

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 13, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region closed the trading session on a mostly positive note, which was buoyed by first quarter earnings from some of the banks. Investors will continue to monitor the corporate earnings announcements in the coming days, especially banks, which is a proxy to the economic health of the region. However, the geopolitical risk will continue to impact the sentiments as it can have wider repercussions on regional markets. For the day, five out of the eight indexes closed in green, while three ended on the losing side. Saudi Arabia was the best performing index as it was up by 0.9% for the day, recovering the losses recorded in the previous three sessions. The index was mostly supported by buying interest in energy and banking sector sectors. Qatar closed up by 0.7% for the day, reversing the losses recorded on the previous day. However, the index witnessed subdued trading activity as investors are still taking a cautious approach and not getting carried away with the upside. UAE markets ended the session on a mixed note as Dubai was up by 0.2%, while Abu Dhabi was down by 0.2% for the day. Despite closing higher, the market breadth in Dubai was skewed towards decliners as 17 stocks report losses, while there were only 12 advancers. In Abu Dhabi, the trading activity was dominated by banking stocks, which witnessed mixed sentiments from investors. Egypt closed marginally lower by 0.1% for the day after rising by 1.1% on the previous day. Kuwait closed up by 0.2% for the day, in line with the sentiments seen in broader regional markets. Bahrain closed lower by 0.4%, while Oman was marginally up by 0.1% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed in red as Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were all down by 0.3%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. European markets closed on a mixed note as DAX was up by 0.1%, while FTSE and CAC were both down by 0.2% and 0.01% respectively. At the time of writing the report, Asian markets have opened in red as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are down by 1.1%, 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Headlines (WW) World trade seen growing 2.4% in 2017, uncertainty weighs (ME) Mideast employers offer 32,600 vacancies in first quarter (WW) US small businesses expect continued 2017 growth (GCC) Improving GCC exports to EU, US, China (WW) US policy uncertainty, Brexit cloud German outlook (SA) The first Saudi Sukuk dollar volume of USD 8 billion (WW) US job openings rise to seven-month high in February (SA) Saudi non-oil GDP to grow by 1.8% in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018 (WW) UK wage growth after inflation almost disappears (SA) Saudi businesses face 'challenging' few years (WW) China March producer inflation cools for first time in 7-mnths on steel glut fears (SA) Jeddah's rents fall further after departure of several expatriates (WW) China's c. bank quietly increases its power in battle to curb risks (AE) Dubai to host Thomson Reuters seminar on MENA economic outlook (WW) India's March core consumer price inflation seen at 4.8-4.9% (AE) Dubai residents could be in for a rental jolt (CMD) Oil Prices Inch Higher Ahead Of Inventory Data (AE) Abu Dhabi’s property market under pressure from sluggish economy (CMD) Gold hits 5-month high; geopolitical worries drive flight to safety (OM) Oman-UK trade to exceed USD 1billion (FX) Dollar in wait-and-see mode as Tillerson meets with Russians (OM) New 'Oman Oil & Gas Regulations' on cards (FX) Sterling touches one-week high ahead of UK labour market data (BH) Bahrain needs a sizable fiscal adjustment urgently (FI) US bond yields steady ahead of 30-year Treasury sale (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,540.60 0.2% -0.7% 1.7% 0.3% ˄ ˅ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,555.06 -0.2% -1.3% 2.5% 0.2% ˄ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,099.13 0.9% 0.3% 1.4% -1.5% ˄ ˅ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 7,042.12 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 22.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 12,984.36 -0.1% -0.9% -0.1% 5.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,489.28 0.7% 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% ˄ ˅ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,357.29 -0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 11.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,557.36 0.1% -1.0% 0.1% -3.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 336 464 524 106 182 190 82,670 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 107 153 151 58 71 63 135,285 Saudi (SASEIDX) 170 190 243 964 967 1,110 440,509 Kuwait (KWSE) 273 500 330 87 140 96 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 176 314 371 64 90 93 19,866 Qatar (DSM) 8 11 9 55 101 82 132,896 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 4 5 4 3 3 3 21,150 Oman (MSM30) 11 19 17 7 12 10 16,557 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 13, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.9 386.2 8.8 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 Current 489.3 11.3 9.2 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 - - 0.9 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait 27% 5.0% 5.7% 5.2% Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 22.5% 18% 11.2% 4.3% 4.0% 4% 3.3% 0.0% 0% Kuwait Egypt 5.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0% 2% 0.0% 9% 0.3% 2.1% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Egypt Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 6% Previous 600 12.8 11.8 11.0 12 PB Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -1.5% -3.9% -9% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 13, 2017 Dubai Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close DoD % Volume Value NATIONAL CEMENT CO PSC 3.49 -8.60% 194 709 58,585 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.52 -3.95% 8,884 13,781 12,777 73,476 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.88 -2.51% 3,002 2,670 1,268 1,610 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.77 -2.26% 2,442 4,373 1.15% 1,087 2,831 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.48 -1.68% 12,141 5,817 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 4.56 6.36% 361 1,598 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.58 -5.17% 3,014 1,796 AL KHAZNA INSURANCE COMPANY 0.40 5.00% 402 157 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 1.21 -3.31% 60,661 74,654 RAS AL KHAIMAH CERAMICS PSC 2.14 4.67% 1,619 3,387 INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING 1.84 -3.26% 1,940 3,629 ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK PJSC 6.94 2.31% 3,059 20,988 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.56 -1.79% 1,716 970 GULF PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 2.35 2.13% 4 8 NATIONAL BANK OF RAS AL KHAIMAH 4.79 -1.46% 35 168 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL AHLIA FOR COOPERATIVE INSUR 13.15 9.89% 3,823 48,017 AL JAZIRA MAWTEN REIT 21.85 -3.20% 3,560 79,069 MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS 9.15 9.84% 8,094 70,748 AL ABDULLATIF INDUSTRIAL INVEST 14.65 -2.39% 326 4,829 ETIHAD ETISALAT CO SJSC 21.75 7.13% 8,199 172,390 NATIONAL AGRICULTURE DEV 34.80 -2.30% 3,062 107,827 RABIGH REFINING AND PETROCHEM 12.95 5.02% 8,997 113,722 MALATH COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 22.35 -1.79% 471 10,632 GULF UNION COOPERATIVE INSUR 12.40 4.84% 1,524 18,466 ARABIAN SHIELD COOPERATIVE IN 59.00 -1.69% 118 7,015 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) GULF FRANCHISING HOLDING CO KSCP 58.00 8.62% 5 0 NAFAIS HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 180.00 -11.11% 5 1 AJWAN GULF REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 69.00 7.25% 0 0 NATIONAL SLAUGHTER HOUSE CO 47.50 -10.53% 31 2 ENERGY HOUSE HOLDING COMPANY 48.00 6.25% 4,183 195 KUWAIT FINANCIAL CENTRE KPSC 106.00 -7.55% 5 1 AL-MASSALEH REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 51.00 5.88% 529 26 KUWAIT NATIONAL CINEMA CO 1500.00 -6.67% 153 238 REAL ESTATE TRADE CENTERS CO 45.00 5.56% 1,958 86 AL MAL INVESTMENT COMPANY KPSC 22.50 -4.44% 1,654 38 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Top Losers Close DoD % Volume Value 15.81 9.99% 3 48 NATIONAL CEMENT CO SAE 9.73 -5.76% 45 453 DELTA CO FOR PRINTING AND PACK 6.83 9.96% 35 229 PRIME HOLDING FOR FINANCIAL 4.69 -5.33% 63 305 SHOROUK FOR MODERN PRINTING 10.47 9.93% 6 56 CAIRO POULTRY CO SAE 6.86 -5.25% 77 540 ALEXANDRIA NATIONAL COMPANY 8.07 9.05% 6 43 NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT EGYPT 32.17 -5.04% 2 59 ROWAD TOURISM CO SAE 4.28 7.94% 26 106 EGYPT GAS CO SAE 91.60 -5.01% 15 1,366 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) OOREDOO QSC 102.30 2.54% 50 5,078 QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE 41.00 -4.63% 3 110 COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 31.10 2.41% 341 10,490 AL KHALIJ COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 14.80 -1.62% 44 659 QATAR ELECTRICITY AND WATER CO 215.10 1.53% 8 1,774 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QSC 53.50 -0.93% 33 1,800 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 96.80 1.34% 89 8,557 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 67.50 -0.59% 4 269 QATAR ISLAMIC BANK QPSC 101.50 1.28% 9 896 MANNAI CORPORATION QSC 79.80 -0.50% 2 134 Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value AL RAMZ CORPORATION INVESTMENT 1.50 6.00% 0 1,033 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.46 1.97% 0 DUBAI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 5.80 1.72% AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.28 1.56% EMAAR MALLS GROUP PJSC 2.62 Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Top Gainers Qatar Egypt NASR CO FOR CIVIL WORKS SAE Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 13, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 80,002 100.00 -1.2% 9.3% 3,136 83,641 102.50 74.25 17 1.8 4.0% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,977 18.15 -0.3% -3.5% 670 3,312 20.20 17.15 18 3.7 4.4% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 38,064 150.00 1.0% 0.0% 139 5,717 157.27 121.36 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 37,068 69.50 1.8% -4.1% 348 6,443 74.00 51.00 16 2.3 5.8% 5 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 32,045 10.80 -0.9% 8.1% 5,720 16,818 11.55 7.60 11 1.2 4.2% 6 Al Rajhi Bank SA 28,492 65.75 1.2% 4.4% 1,799 31,548 67.50 48.60 13 2.1 3.4% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 26,611 23.95 0.6% 6.9% 865 5,525 25.80 14.30 47 1.6 2.9% 8 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 20,801 39.00 2.1% -8.5% 2,944 30,616 46.30 32.00 8 1.3 4.1% 9 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,616 112.00 0.9% -4.7% 134 4,118 122.00 94.50 23 2.0 3.6% 10 DP World Ltd AE 18,177 21.90 1.4% 25.1% 157 936 22.25 15.53 19 2.1 1.7% 11 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,730 67.50 0.0% -9.7% 235 4,221 76.00 46.00 82 6.2 0.0% 12 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 16,264 11.00 0.0% 0.0% 3 8 11.95 1.57 452 8.9 0.0% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,787 74.00 0.7% 8.0% 980 19,345 74.00 51.50 29 4.5 1.2% 14 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,328 7.35 -0.4% 3.1% 3,641 7,287 7.79 5.95 10 1.3 2.0% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,396 690.00 -1.4% 11.5% 2,267 5,131 723.81 523.81 14 1.3 4.1% 16 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,963 41.60 0.0% 6.7% 298 3,309 43.80 27.80 121 1.8 0.0% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,257 8.10 0.0% -4.6% 279 616 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.9% 18 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,441 15.70 0.0% 3.9% 895 3,858 20.24 14.63 23 1.4 3.2% 19 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,200 21.00 0.7% -13.8% 1,467 8,213 25.20 15.90 8 1.0 4.5% 20 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,525 10.65 0.9% -10.9% 272 772 13.15 9.90 77 1.4 0.0% 21 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,215 540.00 -1.8% 10.0% 1,389 2,461 572.73 400.00 15 1.7 2.9% 22 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,049 7.10 2.3% 2.9% 3,059 5,913 7.68 5.66 9 1.2 0.0% 23 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,390 2.65 1.1% 1.1% 1,087 784 3.10 2.47 18 2.2 3.8% 24 Ooredoo QSC QA 9,232 104.90 2.5% 3.0% 50 1,448 116.10 81.50 15 1.5 3.3% 25 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 9,075 60.50 0.4% 0.0% 318 5,123 61.75 37.00 15 2.1 0.0% 26 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,940 22.35 2.3% -10.6% 603 3,594 25.90 16.40 9 1.1 3.1% 27 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,860 43.00 0.5% 14.4% 740 8,748 44.20 32.10 16 2.5 4.7% 28 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,580 26.70 3.1% 2.3% 282 2,007 27.50 18.00 9 1.1 3.9% 29 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,200 10.25 -1.0% -11.3% 1,023 2,796 11.80 8.55 9 0.8 6.3% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,939 5.90 1.7% 5.9% 12,777 20,524 6.29 4.90 9 1.3 7.6% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 568,225 3.1% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. Moreover, none of the report is intended as a prospectus within the meaning of the applicable laws of any jurisdiction and none of the report is directed to any person in any country in which the distribution of such report is unlawful. This report provides general information only. The information and opinions in the report constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express, or implied, is made by AMCML, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and AMCML does also not warrant that the information is up to date. Moreover, you should be aware of the fact that investments in undertakings, securities or other financial instruments involve risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of material presented in this report. This document has not been reviewed by, approved by or filed with the DFSA. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without our prior written consent. Copyright © 2015 Al Masah Capital Management Limited 4