GCC Daily Market Update - 28 March

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,341.6 20,551.0 5,374.3 7,293.5 11,996.1 5,017.4 89,695.1 18,985.6 24,193.7 3,267.0 29,237.2 (2.4) (45.7) 10.3 (43.3) (68.2) (3.5) (687.7) (276.9) (164.6) (2.5) (184.3) (0.1) (0.2) 0.2 (0.6) (0.6) (0.1) (0.8) (1.4) (0.7) (0.1) (0.6) (0.9) (1.3) 0.8 0.4 1.4 3.3 2.5 (0.7) 1.9 0.8 1.7 4.6 4.0 10.5 2.1 4.5 3.2 14.8 (0.7) 10.0 5.3 9.8 10,428.5 6,852.1 4,465.3 3,454.4 7,032.3 5,603.8 1,382.7 1,662.0 3,116.5 15.7 (22.0) 0.1 (14.1) (8.3) (50.2) 4.2 (0.1) 2.8 0.2 (0.3) 0.0 (0.4) (0.1) (0.9) 0.3 (0.0) 0.1 (2.6) (1.7) (1.9) (4.8) 3.7 (3.0) 2.4 0.9 1.1 (0.1) (5.0) (1.8) (2.2) 22.3 (3.1) 13.3 5.2 7.3 50.8 47.7 3.1 1,255.7 262.5 (0.1) (0.2) (0.0) 7.2 0.2 (0.1) (0.5) (0.8) 0.6 0.1 (8.4) (11.2) 9.3 0.1 (2.9) (10.4) (10.8) (18.6) 9.0 4.8 Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global stocks ended in red on Monday. US stocks continued their downward trajectory, with Dow posting 8th consecutive losses over concerns of Trump’s ability to execute key reforms. The S&P recovered much of the losses boosted by the rally in hospital operators, which helped lift the wider healthcare sector 0.4% higher, following the failure of passage of Trump’s Healthcare reforms bill. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 lost 0.4%, as the reflation rally faded. Banks, which benefitted the most from the rally, were among the notable decliners. Miners and oil companies also closed lower, tracking lower oil and commodity prices. In Asia, China stocks slipped on Monday, as any optimism felt from data showing surging profits at industrial firms was offset by fresh property curbs and signs that monetary policy may be further tightened. GCC Most Gulf indices fell on Monday in a thin trade in line with global indices. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark fell 0.3% in the lowest volume since September16. Declining shares outnumbered advancing ones by 115 to 31. Petrochemical producers were among the losers with Saudi Kayan Petrochemical down 0.7%. Almarai and United Wire Factories went exdividend and were down 0.7% and 2.0%, respectively. Dubai’s main index edged down 0.4% with Emaar Malls shredding 2.0% after it confirmed making an USD 800.0mn bid to acquire e-commerce operator, Souq.com. Qatar QE index rose 0.2% on Monday on the back of increased buying support from foreign institutions which helped the index to get back to positive territory, though at lower levels. Domestic counterpart also turned net buyers for the day. The index witnessed higher demand particularly in Insurance, Industrials and Realty counters. Trade turnover and volumes expanded in the bourse with Telecom, Banking and Real Estate sectors together accounting for about 90% of the total volumes. Out of 41 stocks traded, 24 rose, 14 fell and 3 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.1 1.6 3.7 90.8 11,000 DSM 20 15.4 1.5 3.7 70.0 10,500 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.0 1.6 3.6 653.4 UAE (ADX) 12.7 1.4 5.4 64.8 UAE (DFM) 14.7 1.2 3.9 36.4 Kuwait (KSE) 21.3 1.3 3.3 88.3 Oman (MSM) 11.0 1.1 5.2 7.4 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.1 0.8 5.4 2.9 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Mazaya Qatar Real Est Vodafone Qatar Dlala Holding Qatar & Oman Inv Co Top Losers Qatar Islamic Insurance Al Meera Consumr Gds Qatar German Co. Ooredoo Qsc Qatar Industrial Manuf Close Price 20.3 14.2 9.2 23.1 10.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 4.1 3.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 (3.8) (1.3) (2.1) 7.5 0.2 (23.1) 46.8 39.5 0.0 533.2 21.0 (24.5) 4,822.3 NA 19.4 222.0 168.1 (17.9) 1.7 23.5 68.0 166.0 9.5 99.6 43.6 (1.6) (2.5) (0.1) (1.3) (0.5) (2.3) (1.5) (1.4) (1.3) (1.0) 34.4 (5.4) (5.6) (2.2) (2.1) (3.4) (23.0) (25.4) 17.2 13.3 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 4.6 5.1 13.1 194.2 3.5 16.1 16.7 NA 14.6 10.7 Qatar DSM Index 60.0 40.0 10,428.5 10,000 9,500 2/Jan 16/Jan 30/Jan 13/Feb Index Volume (mn) 27/Feb 13/Mar 20.0 0.0 27/Mar Index Value Closing Level 3,030.9 6,445.2 3,292.4 4,338.9 2,379.1 1,214.0 2,335.3 1D Change (%) (0.1) (0.2) 0.6 0.8 0.2 (0.7) (0.1) Buy (%) 42.5 17.9 60.4 11.5 28.1 39.6 Sell (%) 47.6 21.8 69.4 11.5 19.1 30.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  As US auto sales have peaked, competition to finance car loans is to intensify and drive increased credit risk for auto lenders, as per Moody's Investors Service. The agency added that US sales of new cars and trucks hit a record annual high of 17.55mn units in 2016.(Source: Reuters)   Saudi Arabia has set a range of income tax rates for producers of oil and hydrocarbons. Tax rate for investment exceeding SAR 375.0bn (USD 100bn) will be 50%. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia has announced a lower tax rate for larger oil players. The tax rate for state owned, Saudi Aramco is cut to 50% from 80% earlier. (Source: FT)  Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said the case for four interest rate hikes in the US this year is not yet solid and would require a stronger lift in inflation.(Source: Reuters)  The UK's biggest banks have been told to prepare for a wide range of challenges, as part of the Bank of England's latest stress tests. One key test will be to prove they can manage any sudden slowdown in foreign interest in UK assets. (Source: BBC)  Banks moving from Britain to the EU because of Brexit could be given years to fully comply with European Central Bank rules, ECB executive board member and bank supervisor Sabine Lautenschlaeger said. Arabia)   The European Union has approved the proposed USD 130bn merger between Dow Chemical and DuPont. The approval is conditional upon Dow and DuPont divesting certain assets, however the green light is still a big victory for the companies. (Source: Reuters) China will welcome foreign investment in more sectors going forward and would expect fair treatment overseas, the People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiochuan said. (Source: Business Insider) Apicorp signed an agreement with Goldman Sachs’ West Street Capital Partners VII funds to create an investment vehicle targeting global energy co-investments. The vehicle will make private equity investments in a diversified, global portfolio of energy assets. (Source: Zawya)  Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic development has signed a loan agreement worth USD 35.7mn with Zimbabwe for Zhove Irrigation Project. Zimbabwe Government will contribute USD 7.0mn and the balance of USD 8.7mn will come from Abu Dhabi Fund for Development. (Source: Newsday)  Kuwait Finance House inked an agreement to sell its 80% stake in Public Service Company for KWD 5.6mn. (Source: Reuters)  Kuwait based Alargan reported a net profit of KWD 1.8mn in 2016 compared to KWD 16.7mn in 2015. The revenue however rose by 37% YoY to KWD 26.8mn in 2016. EPS for 2016 stood at 7.09 fils. (Source: (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia based developer, Acwa power and Apicorp have signed a sale and purchase agreement for 8% stake in Shuqaiq Independent Water & Power Project (Shuqaiq IWPP) in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Trade Trade Arabia) GCC NEWS   GCC states are entering into a deal on free trade with Britain after Brexit, according to some gulf officials. Britain cannot formally sign trade agreements while it remains a member of the EU, but the British government is starting preparatory work so that deals are signature ready. (Source: Arabian Business) Investments in the UAE’s industrial sector amounted to AED 112.0bn in 2016, accounting for 86% of the total investments, according to the Minister of Economy. The UAE government seeks to attract new industrial investments valued at more than USD 70bn by the year 2025 (Source: Zawya)  UAE’s Minister of Energy said that savings generated by switching half its power needs to clean energy by mid-century will outstrip the investment costs, resulting into a saving of USD 192.0bn. (Source: Arabian  Oman)    Qatar will invest GBP 5bn in Britain over the next few 3-5 years, the country's minister of finance said during his visit to London. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar Investment Authority head said that he saw opportunities in Britain, post Brexit and aims to continue the funds focus on infrastructure, healthcare and technology sectors. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar's energy minister and its chief OPEC envoy Mohammed Saleh Al-Sada has called for oil productions cuts to be extended beyond June. (Source: IB Times) Government of Dubai Media Office)  UAE based Emirates Global Aluminium has selected Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase as advisors for its IPO which could raise USD 3.0bn, according to people familiar with the matter. The Emir held a telephonic conversation with Bahrain’s Crown Prince to discuss bilateral ties and mean to bolster them. (Source: BNA)  Bin Faqeeh, a leading Bahrain-based privately-owned real estate investment, has opened its first office in Qatar, in accordance with its expansion strategy aimed at strengthening its presence in the region. The Prime Minister of UAE has approved two contracts for constructing the 7th Interchange on Sheikh Zayed Road, as well as Al Yalayis and Al Asayel Roads at a cost of AED 1.2bn. The project, once completed will will ease the traffic flow on Sheikh Zayed Road. (Source: (Source: Bloomberg)  The Central Bank of Bahrain announced that its BHD 70.0mn issue of Government Treasury Bills has been subscribed by 162%. The bills carry a maturity of 91 days with weighted average rate of interest of 2.22%. (Source: BNA) QATAR NEWS Business)  Vice-Chairman of Oman’s Capital Markets Authority plans to extend its settlement cycle for stock trades by the end of April-17 to three days from two for foreigners and zero for local traders. (Source: Times of National Bank of Abu Dhabi has given pricing guidance for its senior unsecured five year USD benchmark (green bond) at 105bps over midswaps. HSBC Holdings and NBAD are the joint structuring advisers for the green bonds. (Source: Bloomberg)  UAE based total facilities management company, Farnek signed an agreement with Abu-Dhabi-based International Emirates Business Group to provide full protection services across its entire range of real estate assets in UAE capital. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE based RSG international has partnered with hospitality group Rotana to build its new five-star hotel and serviced apartment project, Sabah Rotana in Dubai. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: MENA FM)  Ooredoo Group signed a new network transformation agreement with Ericsson, under which the former will transform its network, backed by Ericsson’s services organization and solutions portfolio. (Source: The Peninsula)  Minister of Transport and Communications Jassim Saif Ahmed Al Sulaiti called on companies and businessmen to visit Qatar to explore the promising investment opportunities in the country, during QatarUK Business and Investment Forum. (Source: QNA)  Qatar Airways Ltd. may order 100 new jetliners before the end of this year to power its push into India and also plans to announce two new routes to the UK. (Source: Bloomberg) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0894 USD/QAR 3.6413 110.6600 EUR/QAR 3.9668 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2589 JPY/QAR 0.0329 USD/CHF 0.9856 GBP/QAR 4.5840 USD/CAD 1.3376 CHF/QAR 3.6945 AUD/USD 0.7618 CAD/QAR 2.7223 NZD/USD 0.7045 AUD/QAR 2.7739 USD/INR 64.5450 INR/QAR 0.0564 USD/TRY 3.6163 TRY/QAR 1.0069 USD/ZAR 12.7407 ZAR/QAR 0.2858 USD/BRL 3.1266 BRL/QAR 1.1646 FX Commentary USD fell to its lowest since November against a basket of currencies on Monday as investors withdrew bets on President Donald Trump’s reflationary tax and spending proposals after his failure to push through a key healthcare reform bill. EUR reached its highest since 11th November2017 as German Ifo business confidence index for March-17 rose more than expected. The gains were however capped after dovish comments from ECB Chief Economist, Peter Praet, who indicated that economic recovery still needs significant monetary policy support. JPY rose as Japan’s services PPI came in more than estimated. The currency however gave up most of its gains as BoJ, in its summary of March policy meeting, indicated the plan to continue to pursue its ultra-loose monetary policy. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 0.94 0.98 1.15 1.80 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.11) QAIBOR 1.46 1.53 1.74 2.03 2.72 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.11 1.31 1.73 2.21 2.0% EIBOR 0.65 0.84 1.03 1.43 2.15 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.85 2.53 NA NA 1.31 1.56 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.83% 3.09% 3.36% 1.92% 2.20% 2.38% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.49% 1.95% 1.27% 2.98% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.3 (0.5) Turkey 236.4 UK 29.6 (2.5) Brazil 236.7 (30.9) Germany 17.6 (0.3) Egypt 341.9 (135.8) 2.0% 2.35% 2.19% 2.03% 2.59% 1.60% 2.19% 1.0% 0.97% 1.76% 1.53% 1.33% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (34.7) 45.1 17.0 Abu Dhabi 44.1 (31.7) Italy 180.4 33.7 Bahrain 231.4 (149.3) Greece 941.2 (76.6) Dubai 122.7 (44.4) Russia 175.1 (43.6) Qatar 66.7 (26.6) Japan 26.1 (9.9) Saudi Arabia 102.1 (63.5) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 11:00 Italy Industrial Orders MoM Period Survey Prior Jan (2.60%) 2.80% 11:00 Italy Industrial Orders NSA YoY 16:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM 02:50 US 02:50 US 02:50 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 19:30 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 19:30 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Mar 15 17 05:20 Japan Retail Trade YoY Feb 0.70% 1.00% 05:20 Japan Retail Sales MoM Feb 0.30% 0.20% 05:20 Japan Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales Feb (1.80%) (1.10%) 10:30 Japan Small Business Confidence Mar - 47.7 Jan - (0.90%) Feb P 0.20% (0.20%) S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Jan 5.60% 5.58% S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Jan - 192.61 Jan - 5.85% Mar 114 114.8 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Gulf Cable & Electrical Ind NA NA NA 1.5 (104.3) 80.2 National Industries Co Ksc 10.8 (16.4) 25.7 (2.7) (408.0) (428.5) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.7 0.0 0.0 9.7 1.5 5.1 4.6 2.6 0.0 4.6 5.9 2.2 5.0 3.1 4.9 3.0 5.4 3.3 4.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.6 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.7 4.0 3.4 1.6 6.9 4.6 3.7 3.0 3.6 1.8 3.7 5.2 2.3 7.2 3.1 0.0 6.4 4.3 3.5 0.0 2.8 3.1 4.7 4.6 4.4 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.9 2.5 0.9 2.6 0.9 2.6 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.8 2.4 1.4 1.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.7 3.9 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.3 2.9 3.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.8 2.4 0.6 3.0 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.1 26.2 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.6 89.7 12.3 15.7 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.3 13.0 10.9 23.5 12.1 6.9 43.2 16.7 43.8 15.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.5 12.8 6.7 13.2 19.6 76.5 22.3 18.9 15.7 28.5 10.7 10.9 19.8 39.0 11.7 19.0 16.4 16.1 18.3 8.4 23.3 21.0 11.2 15.6 14.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.3 14.9 12.4 12.3 12.7 14.7 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.5 11.7 2.3 10.0 0.7 8.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.8 0.7 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.3 0.5 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.3 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 9.0 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.8 56.5 36.1 70.1 21.6 70.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.7 16.8 108.5 43.6 12.5 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 24.8 21.1 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 36.4 46.9 11.4 13.2 30.8 17.3 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 35.0 34.0 23.1 31.0 65.0 14.6 43.6 19.1 8.6 102.6 67.5 146.0 10.0 81.2 100.0 166.0 30.0 136.0 9.5 10.5 65.1 86.0 14.4 27.6 109.0 15.0 219.9 63.4 43.6 79.0 20.3 16.9 71.0 41.0 68.0 34.7 15.9 14.2 19.7 99.6 9.2 52.3 21.4 76.4 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4