GCC Daily Market Update - 20 December

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 20 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,681.5 24,754.8 6,480.7 7,544.1 13,215.8 5,382.9 110,177.1 22,868.0 29,253.7 3,296.5 33,836.7 (8.7) (37.5) (32.6) 7.1 (96.5) (37.7) (70.8) (33.8) 203.3 28.6 235.1 (0.3) (0.2) (0.5) 0.1 (0.7) (0.7) (0.1) (0.2) 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.3 2.0 1.8 3.0 1.5 0.2 6.0 0.6 0.3 (0.6) 2.1 19.8 25.3 33.2 5.6 15.1 10.7 41.0 19.6 33.0 6.2 27.1 8,522.8 7,199.4 4,367.1 3,359.2 6,420.6 5,070.4 1,268.9 1,570.3 3,624.4 310.9 7.8 (30.3) (12.6) 50.4 (17.5) 3.3 0.6 (9.0) 3.8 0.1 (0.7) (0.4) 0.8 (0.3) 0.3 0.0 (0.3) 10.5 2.8 2.0 (1.8) 3.6 (0.8) (1.2) 2.3 0.8 (18.3) (0.2) (3.9) (4.9) 11.7 (12.3) 4.0 1.0 24.8 63.8 57.5 2.7 1,260.7 312.8 0.4 0.3 (0.1) (1.5) 0.6 0.6 0.5 (1.9) (0.1) 0.2 0.5 0.6 (9.5) (1.0) 2.7 12.4 7.4 (26.5) 9.5 24.5 Global Most global equity markets edged lower yesterday. US equity markets ended lower, despite the House of Representatives voted to pass the US tax bill. The Nasdaq index underperformed its peer indices, as weakness in Apple Inc. pushed the broader Technology sector lower. The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended 0.4% lower, as lower-than-forecasted reading on German business sentiment dented investor sentiment. The UK benchmark edged marginally higher, buoyed by gains in UK-based companies operating in US, amidst the passage of US tax bill. While, the Japanese benchmark edged down 0.2%, the losses were capped by gains in Banking stocks, as the higher 10-year treasury yields supported the earnings prospects of the sector. GCC GCC equity markets ended mixed during yesterday’s trading session. The Saudi Arabian benchmark moved marginally higher by 0.1%, after remaining in the negative territory earlier in the session as Saudi air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile fired by Yemen towards Riyadh. Cement sector shares, edged lower, after rising significantly, on hopes that the government would allocate higher funds towards infrastructure development. The Dubai benchmark fell 0.4%, however gains in builder Drake & Scull limited the broad-based decline. Qatar The QE index outperformed its peer indices, to end 3.8% higher yesterday, as increased buying support from foreign institutional investors and bullish stance by domestic institutional investors & non-Qatari individuals supported the market. Trade turnover fell amidst higher volumes, with Banking, Industrials and Telecom sectors together accounting for about 67% of the total volume. Barwa Real Estate advanced 5.6%, after stating that it has signed a 27-year contract with the government to lease two plots of land. Out of 45 companies listed, 43 exchanged hands, of which all advanced. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.8 1.3 4.3 103.4 DSM 20 13.8 1.3 4.6 82.8 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.9 1.6 3.3 1,161.4 UAE (ADX) 15.7 1.3 4.6 47.2 UAE (DFM) 21.2 1.2 4.2 73.0 Kuwait (KSE) 15.4 1.0 5.4 33.9 Oman (MSM) 12.2 1.0 5.2 7.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.5 0.8 6.2 2.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Insurance Co Qatar German Co Salam Int’l Investment Mazaya Qatar Real Est. Qatar Cinema & Film Top Losers NA NA NA NA NA Close Price 56.3 6.6 6.6 9.1 25.0 5.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 2.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.6 8.7 (23.6) (34.4) (40.6) (33.4) (8.9) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. (23.2) 142.4 23.7 (35.3) 132.7 NA (40.4) 792.6 18.6 (30.0) 1,246.0 59.0 (8.9) 1.0 37.4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Qatar DSM Index 8,700 15.0 8,522.8 8,400 10.0 8,100 5.0 7,800 7,500 24/Sep 0.0 8/Oct 22/Oct 5/Nov Index Volume (mn) 19/Nov 3/Dec 17/Dec Index Value Closing Level 2,689.0 4,805.8 2,609.4 3,693.5 1,935.4 1,091.2 1,759.4 1D Change (%) 3.5 3.8 3.2 8.3 7.1 6.1 4.9 Buy (%) 31.2 18.8 50.0 14.9 35.1 50.0 Sell (%) 53.7 12.5 66.2 13.9 19.8 33.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 20 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  US building permits declined by a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.4% MoM, while it rose by 3.4% YoY to 1.3mn in November-17. The housing starts increased by 3.3% MoM and 12.9% YoY to 1.3mn during the same period. (Source: Census)  Eurozone’s hourly labor costs increased by 1.6% YoY in euro area (EA19) and 2.1% YoY in the EU28 in Q3-17. The wages & salaries per hour worked rose by 1.6% YoY, while the non-wage component rose by 1.5% YoY during the same period. (Source: Eurostat)  Eurozone’s production in the construction sector decreased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.4% MoM, while it increased by 2.0% YoY in October-17. The decline was due to monthly decrease in building construction by 0.5% and civil engineering by 0.3% during the same period. (Source: Eurostat)     Japan’s government has upgraded its economic growth projection to 1.9% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018 as compared to the previous forecast of 1.5% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018, driven by strong domestic demand. The government is also forecasting private consumption expenditure to increase by 1.2% YoY in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018. (Source: Market Insider) According to World Bank, China’s economic growth is forecasted to decline in next 2 years due to restrictive domestic policy. The global body has, however, upgraded its forecast for 2017 to 6.8% from the earlier projection of 6.7%. (Source: iii) According to the minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s December-17 meeting, policymakers have balanced subdued inflation against high household debt while keeping interest rates stable at 1.5% for almost 1.5 years. It further stated that, the bank is optimistic about the economic growth but expects that consumer spending can be risk amid slow income growth and high debt levels. (Source: CNBC) Turkey’s tourism revenue is expected to reach USD 26.0bn by the end of 2017 with an expected tourist arrivals of 31.4mn. The nation also number of tourists increasing to 38.0mn during 2018, according to Turkey’s Tourism Minister, Numan Kurtulmus. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  Dubai based Azizi Development is planning to invest additional AED 9.1bn (USD 2.5bn) for business development in 2018. The company aims to further develop the Dubai’s real estate market by establishing community lifestyle projects in key locations across the city. (Source:  Abu Dhabi based ITM O&M, a fully owned subsidiary of Engie has awarded a three year contract to EthosEnergy for renovation work at the Umm Al Nar station in Abu Dhabi, the company’s General Manager stated. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia is planning to increase is spending by 5.6% YoY to SAR 978.0bn and expects non-oil revenue to increase by 13.7% YoY to SAR 291.0bn in 2018, while total receipts are expected to increase by 12.6% to SAR 783.0bn. The budget deficit is expected to reach SAR 195.0bn, a decline of 15.0% YoY in 2018. (Source: Ministry of Finance)  Saudi Arabia reported an increase in its total revenue by 11.1% YoY to SAR 142.1bn in Q3-17, driven by increase in non-oil revenue by 80.0% YoY to SAR 47.8bn, while expenses rose by 5.0% YoY to SAR 190.9bn. The deficit for Q3-17 reached SAR 48.7bn. (Source: Ministry of Finance)  Saudi Arabia is planning to issue tourist visas in Q1-18 as the country plans to undergo major economic and social reforms, the Head of the Saudi Commission for Tourism and National Heritage stated. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia based NCB Capital Company’s subsidiary, NCB Capital (DIFC) Limited, has agreed to purchase a portfolio of 21 commercial aircraft amounting to USD 800.0mn from AerCap Holdings. AerCap would retain an equity stake in the portfolio and would provide technical and lease management services in its capacity as the portfolio servicer. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Aramco signed an agreement with Schlumberger, global oil services provider, to develop a hi-tech industrial manufacturing centre within the King Salman Energy Park in the Dhahran region of Saudi Arabia. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based GFH Financial Group has signed an investment deal to acquire two Chicago suburban office properties amounting to USD 150.0mn in association with Crestlight Capital and Lincoln Property Company. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development signed a loan agreement worth USD 9.0mn with Thai’s Ministry of Finance to develop infrastructure in coastal areas in Thai Thuy district of the northern province of Thai Binh. (Source: Vietnem Plus)  National bank of Kuwait is planning to expand its business in Saudi Arabia and Egypt by opening new branches in both countries and hiring hundreds of workers by the end of 2018. (Source: Albawaba)  The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has pledged to provide USD 239.2mn in funding for the development of Oman’s national fiber optical broadband network. The amount will be made available in the form of senior debt to the Oman Broadband Company. (Source: Gulf Base) Arabian Business)  Dubai based Palma Holding announced that the construction works of its Serenia Residences project amounting to AED 1.5bn (USD 408.0mn) is almost completed and will be opened for sale soon. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based DP World and Caspian Venture Capital has provided an additional funding worth USD 50.0mn to Virgin Hyperloop One, after its Series C round of funding. Additionally, company has also completed its 3rd phase of testing by achieving historic test speeds of 387.0km per hour. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Takaful Emarat, an insurance company, announced that it would acquire Al Hilal Takaful from Al Hilal Bank by the means of a cash transaction. This would create the largest takaful group in the UAE based on 2016 gross written contributions. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based conglomerate, Al Gurg Group’s subsidiary, Wolfe Asset Management, has signed an deal worth GBP 266.5mn (USD 357.1mn) with Great Portland Estate and BP Pension Fund to purchase a 20storey building in Blackfriars Road in the UK. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi based Emirates Development Bank has allocated AED 450.0mn out of its total budget of AED 1.0bn for 2018 to fund SMEs, as sluggish economic conditions continue to weigh on the sector. (Source: The National) QATAR NEWS  Qatar Central Bank is planning to establish a deposit protection framework and to develop a cyber-security lab as a part of its efforts to ensure sound and resilient financial sector. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar is planning to open an embassy in Baghdad (Iraq) in 2018, Qatar's Emir Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani stated. (Source: MEMO)  The Ministry of Municipality and Environment signed a lease contract with Barwa Real Estate Company for two plots of land for labour accommodation. A land of 994,476 sqm would be used to build permanent units for accommodation and other of 184,538 sqm to be used to build workshops for building blocks and bricks which would be later used as Bus station. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ooredoo’s AGM is been held today and thus shares of the company are been suspended to trade on the stock exchange. (Source: QE)  Qatar Postal Services Company signed an agreement with Nebras Power, a company that manages a portfolio of strategic investments in power to facilitate the posting and delivery of express courier items for Nebras Power in a secured and efficient manner. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 20 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1870 USD/QAR 3.6415 112.8900 EUR/QAR 4.3225 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3415 JPY/QAR 0.0323 USD/CHF 0.9849 GBP/QAR 4.8851 USD/CAD 1.2878 CHF/QAR 3.6973 AUD/USD 0.7663 CAD/QAR 2.8277 NZD/USD 0.6972 AUD/QAR 2.7905 USD/INR 63.5350 INR/QAR 0.0573 USD/TRY 3.8335 TRY/QAR 0.9499 USD/ZAR 12.7068 ZAR/QAR 0.2866 USD/BRL 3.2911 BRL/QAR 1.1065 FX Commentary The USD inched lower against a basket of currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.3% lower at 93.441. Doubts concerning the overall impact of the tax overhaul on the US economy, weighed on the investor sentiment. However, better than expected US housing data limited the losses in the greenback. The GBP remained broadly unchanged against the USD, amidst continuous fears that the UK might not be able to secure a deal to leave the European Union. The EUR inched higher against the USD, despite the release of weaker than expected German IFO business climate data. The AUD traded flattish against the USD, after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest policy meeting provided a bullish picture of the domestic economy by the policymakers. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.43 1.46 1.50 1.63 2.06 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.07 2.20 2.37 2.67 3.02 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.62 1.69 1.90 2.28 2.0% EIBOR 1.19 1.33 1.56 1.73 2.42 BMIBOR 1.33 1.53 2.00 2.35 2.93 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.32% 1.85% 3.04% 3.30% 3.55% 2.21% 2.36% 2.45% 2.81% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 4.39% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.3 0.9 Turkey 172.9 (23.1) UK 20.6 (3.0) Brazil 165.9 (77.7) Germany 11.3 (5.7) Egypt 358.6 (39.1) France 18.7 (8.1) Abu Dhabi 66.1 14.0 Italy 117.7 (31.0) Bahrain 294.6 55.2 Greece 430.5 (206.5) Dubai 138.7 8.2 Russia 121.1 (56.6) Qatar 104.8 (13.0) Japan 27.4 0.8 94.0 (13.4) 2.06% 2.33% 2.26% 2.0% 2.27% 2.07% 1.0% 2.46% 2.43% 2.71% 2.60% 1.50% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 07:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM Oct 0.30% (0.50%) 10:00 Germany PPI MoM Nov 0.20% 0.30% 10:00 Germany PPI YoY Nov 2.60% 2.70% 12:00 Eurozone ECB Current Account SA Oct - 37.8b 12:00 Italy Current Account Balance Oct - 4307m 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Dec-15th - (2.30%) 16:00 Russia CPI WoW Dec-18th - 0.10% Dec-18th 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD - 2.30% 16:30 Canada Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Oct 0.50% (1.20%) 18:00 US Existing Home Sales Nov 5.53m 5.48m 18:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM Nov 0.90% 2.00% 02:50 Japan Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Dec-15th - (¥487.6b) 02:50 Japan Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Dec-15th - ¥376.4b 02:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Dec-15th - ¥844.2b 02:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Dec-15th - ¥84.8b 03:01 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Dec (12) (12) 08:00 Japan Supermarket Sales YoY Nov - (1.90%) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 20 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 0.0 0.0 10.5 3.0 6.2 5.4 4.7 0.0 5.0 7.5 2.4 6.3 3.6 7.1 4.7 6.3 4.0 7.0 0.0 12.2 5.6 5.8 6.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 5.5 5.6 4.1 4.8 4.1 2.8 6.9 6.5 4.2 5.1 42.7 2.7 3.1 5.8 4.2 7.8 4.1 0.0 8.7 5.4 3.9 0.0 3.2 3.9 6.3 6.1 5.9 4.1 P/B Ratio (x) 1.1 0.7 1.8 0.8 1.4 0.7 2.2 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.2 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.9 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 3.6 0.7 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.9 0.5 1.8 1.1 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.7 2.0 0.7 2.6 1.4 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 8.9 45.1 24.9 8.2 61.3 9.6 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.5 9.8 9.3 22.4 10.5 5.5 27.4 14.5 37.5 13.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.6 10.9 5.9 11.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.1 22.7 14.4 12.3 17.7 10.6 11.2 18.8 26.6 9.1 25.3 66.7 14.2 26.2 9.4 17.0 57.9 8.3 13.2 15.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.3 11.5 10.9 20.7 13.3 13.2 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.9 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.0 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 21.9 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.4 23.5 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.3 Stock Price (QR) 28.7 29.0 15.1 28.7 33.5 12.1 37.2 10.7 5.6 95.1 53.2 130.7 8.0 56.8 64.3 144.0 25.0 99.5 6.6 6.6 62.8 77.5 8.2 18.2 5.4 97.0 12.5 181.0 35.6 43.5 61.8 11.8 14.1 56.3 49.2 60.0 31.9 12.3 9.1 14.3 90.6 7.8 41.6 16.0 57.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4