GCC Daily Market Update - 7 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 7 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,465.5 21,807.6 5,951.1 7,354.1 12,214.5 5,101.4 109,611.8 19,358.0 27,613.8 3,385.4 31,662.0 7.7 54.3 18.4 (18.8) 90.8 14.9 738.8 (27.8) (127.6) 1.1 (147.6) 0.3 0.3 0.3 (0.3) 0.8 0.3 0.7 (0.1) (0.5) 0.0 (0.5) (0.2) (0.6) (0.6) (1.0) 1.3 0.3 (0.4) (1.5) (1.3) 0.7 (0.2) 10.1 10.3 22.4 3.0 6.4 4.9 40.3 1.3 25.5 9.1 18.9 8,684.6 7,306.1 4,457.1 3,642.1 6,918.0 5,064.6 1,311.2 1,667.1 3,383.5 (116.0) 47.5 (21.6) 17.9 (2.6) 1.5 8.7 (5.5) 10.9 (1.3) 0.7 (0.5) 0.5 (0.0) 0.0 0.7 (0.3) 0.3 (1.3) 0.7 (0.3) 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 (0.2) 0.2 (16.8) 1.3 (2.0) 3.1 20.4 (12.4) 7.4 6.1 16.4 54.2 49.2 3.0 1,335.2 313.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 (5.4) 2.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 (0.4) 0.8 3.1 3.9 (1.1) 1.3 1.7 (4.9) (8.7) (19.2) 15.9 25.0 Source: Bloomberg Global US markets closed higher yesterday, after President Trump struck a deal with Democratic congressional leaders to increase the debt limit and finance the government until mid-December. All the three major US indices settled 0.3% higher. The S&P 500 index received a boost from Energy stocks, as oil prices traded higher yesterday. Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare were among the other notable gainers. The Stoxx Europe 600 index edged 0.1% higher. German Automobile stocks advanced, after data indicated that new car registrations in Germany rose by 3.5% YoY in August17. On the flipside, Insurance stocks having exposures in the US edged lower amid reports that Hurricane Irma was heading towards the Eastern coast of the nation. The Japanese benchmark dropped 0.1%, amid continuous strength in the JPY and losses in Financial shares. GCC Most GCC markets closed higher yesterday. Saudi Arabian benchmark rose 0.7%, tracking gains in oil prices. Few Petrochemical shares inched higher, as gains in oil prices improved product price prospects of the local companies. In Abu Dhabi, Union National Bank closed mostly unchanged, after index compiler FTSE announced its plans to remove the stock from its global equity index. Bahraini benchmark outperformed its peer indices, led by gains in Banking and Investment sectors. Qatar QE index dropped 1.3%, after index compiler FTSE, removed 3 stocks from its all-world index and downgraded one from its large cap index to mid-cap index. Qatar Gas Transport dropped 2.9%, following the downgrade, while Aamal (-4.3%), Qatari Investors Group (-1.8%) and Qatar Navigation (-0.2%) were other major losers, following their exclusion from the world index. A Reuter’s survey showing pessimism among regional fund managers towards Qatari stocks also weighed on sentiments. Foreign retail and institutional investors were among the net sellers during yesterday’s session. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.4 1.3 4.4 71.0 DSM 20 15.0 1.5 4.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.8 1.7 UAE (ADX) 16.4 UAE (DFM) GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index 10,000 30.0 60.5 9,500 20.0 3.3 460.0 9,000 1.3 4.6 117.6 24.2 1.3 3.9 47.4 Kuwait (KSE) 18.3 1.2 5.3 32.0 Oman (MSM) 11.8 1.1 5.2 4.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.7 0.8 6.0 1.0 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Mesaieed Petrochem Gulf Warehousing Co Qatar German Co Al Meera Cons. Goods Qatar Industrial Manu Top Losers Qatar & Oman Inves Aamal Co Gulf Intl Services Medicare Group Industries Qatar Close Price 13.4 49.2 8.0 152.0 43.0 0.5 1.4 0.2 1.9 0.5 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.3 1.1 (15.4) (12.1) (20.8) (13.4) (3.5) (24.9) (8.9) (28.3) (29.2) 1.1 127.0 17.2 118.9 13.8 10.6 NA 0.3 15.3 4.5 9.7 8.1 9.9 17.7 66.8 88.3 (0.6) (0.5) (0.7) (2.2) (2.7) (6.9) (4.3) (3.8) (3.2) (3.0) (18.6) (27.4) (43.1) 6.2 (24.9) (26.9) (35.3) (50.3) (24.9) (17.8) 1.0 23.7 503.7 22.3 406.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 23.1 14.0 NM 28.0 20.6 8,500 11/Jun 8,684.6 10.0 0.0 25/Jun 9/Jul 23/Jul Index Volume (mn) 6/Aug 20/Aug 3/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,686.3 5,109.7 2,617.7 3,941.0 1,828.1 1,068.3 1,905.3 1D Change (%) (1.2) (0.6) (1.9) (0.4) (0.7) (0.4) (1.1) Buy (%) 48.8 17.4 66.2 6.1 27.7 33.8 Sell (%) 43.8 12.2 56.0 10.3 33.7 44.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 7 , 2017 zone's close proximity to Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, Director General of FFZA said. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  US trade deficit rose by 0.3% MoM to USD 44.6bn in July-17 and inflation adjusted trade deficit rose to USD 61.1bn as compared to USD 60.8bn in June-17. Exports of goods and services declined by 0.3% MoM to USD 194.4bn but exports of capital goods rose by USD 0.9bn during the month. (Source: Reuters)  US Mortgage applications rose by 3.3% in week ending 1st September17 as compared to negative 2.3% in week ending 27th August-17. The growth was driven by increase in purchases of home by 1.4% and increase in refinance applications by 5.1%. (Source: Forex)  Canada’s merchandise trade deficit decreased to CAD 3.4bn in July-17 as compared to CAD 3.8bn in June-17 driven by a stronger CAD against USD that cut the value of imports and also helped the declining exports. Exports fell by 4.9% MoM and imports declined by 6.0% MoM in June-17. (Source: Reuters)  Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 1.0%. The bank rate is 1.25% and deposit rate is 0.75%. (Source: Bank of Canada)  German new manufacturing orders declined by 0.7% MoM in July-17. Domestic orders declined by 1.6% MoM with new orders from the Eurozone declined by 1.0% MoM. The new orders from manufacturers of intermediate goods declined by 0.4% MoM and orders from manufacturers of capital goods fell by 0.7% MoM during the month. (Source: Destatis)  Japan’s total labor gross earnings declined by 0.3% YoY in July-17. Contractual gross earnings rose by 0.5% YoY whereas special cash earnings declined by 2.2% YoY and real cash earnings declined 0.8% YoY during the month. (Source: Market Insider) GCC NEWS  UAE’s total non-oil foreign trade volume increased by 3.2% YoY to AED 401.0bn (USD 109.0bn) in Q1-17 driven by 7.4% YoY increase in reexports to AED 110.0bn and increase in imports by 5.2% YoY to AED 245.0bn. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE’s PMI in the non-oil private sector economy rose to 57.3 in August-17 as compared to 56.0 in July-17 driven by increase in number of new orders. (Source: The National)  UAE Central Bank has obligated banks and financing companies to request reports from Al Etihad Credit Bureau before granting and rescheduling personal or commercial loans. The credit assessment would indicate the companies and associations’ compliance with paying financial dues during the coming twelve months. (Source: Mubasher)  UAE based Arada, a joint venture between Basma Group and KBW Investments, has announced the launch of AED 24.0bn (USD 6.5bn) worth of new master planned community, Aljada, which will be built on 2.2 sq.km area in Sharjah. It will be a mixed use project and will accommodate up to 70,000 residents. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE based manufacturer, distributor and retailer, Intercoil International, has opened its new manufacturing facility in Dammam, Saudi Arabia with an investment of SAR 20.0mn (USD 5.3mn). The new facility covers a gross area of 7,000 sq.m with a daily capacity of 500 orthopaedic mattresses. (Source: Arab News)  Dubai based Shuaa Capital’s real estate asset management unit has undertaken the activity to manage the development of AED 1.5bn (USD 408.0mn) mixed-use skyscraper on Sheikh Zayed Road in Dubai.  Abu Dhabi-based commercial banks reported a rise in their net income by 4.1% YoY to AED 9.0bn in Q2-17. Net interest income stood at AED 5.3bn and investment income grew by 14.2% YoY to AED 1.1bn in Q217. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s PMI rose to 55.8 in August-17 as compared to 55.7 in July-17 driven by a recovery in export orders, which boosted the overall new orders, which rose to a four month high, showcasing stronger underlying demand. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Telecom Company received a notification from the Omani Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) stating that TRA is still evaluating the received bids to compete for the third licence of the telecom operator network in Oman. It is expecting the evaluation process to continue till 30th November-17. (Source: Mubasher)  Bahrain has been voted as “2017 best expat destination” worldwide, according to the Expat Insider 2017 survey. Based on the survey around 87.0% of the Bahrain’s residents are happy with their life in general. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s Public Authority for Electricity and Water has introduced a tender for a pair of small water desalination plants with a capacity of 1,000 to 10,000 cu.m/day. The projects will be implemented on a build-own-operate basis. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s investment in tourism and hospitality sector (with an aim to achieve the target of attracting 7.0mn tourists by 2040), has benefitted the nation’s real estate market, according to global real estate consultancy firm CBRE. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar added Morocco in the list of countries which are entered in visafree entry program introduced in early August-17. (Source: Aljazeera)  Trade index between Qatar and its international partners is expected to expand further driven by the introduction of The Hamad Port to more global markets, according to a Qatar Chamber official. He added that the port will provide commercial access to more than 150 countries and is expected to take more than 35.0% of trade in the region from the current 27.0%. (Source: Gulf Times)  Geneva based Mediterranean Shipping Company announced its new weekly services from and to the major Turkish port of Mersin via the Hamad Port which will ensure faster transit for cargo shipped from Turkish and Greek ports. The cargo vessel will have a capacity of around 5,000 TEUs (20ft equivalent units). (Source: Gulf Times)  Turkey’s export volume to Qatar increased by 84.0% YoY during the period from June-17 to August -17. The total value of Turkish exports to Qatar rose by 75.0% YoY to USD 165.0mn during the period driven by increase in trade of food and meat products; electric and electronic products; building materials and furniture. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Central Bank sold QAR 1.0bn (USD 274.7mn) worth of treasury bills in a monthly auction with yields higher than in its previous offer. The bank sold QAR 650.0mn of 3 month notes with a yield of 2.25%, and QAR 350.0mn treasury bills with a 6 month maturity and a yield of 2.49%. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Gulf Warehousing Company has been added in FTSE Qatar Index while Qatari Investor Group, Aamal Co and Qatar Navigation (Milaha) have been excluded from the compilers All World index. These changes are effective from 18th September-17. (Source: The Peninsula)  Oman Qatar Insurance Company (subsidiary of Qatar Insurance Company), has announced the opening of the subscription for its IPO at the Muscat bourse, which is offering 25.0% of the total share capital, at an offer price of 160.0 baisas per share. The subscription will close on 5th October-17. (Source: Qatar Tribune) (Source: Trade Arabia)  Foreign investments in Fujairah Free Zone (FFZ) amount to more than AED 8.0bn with FFZ Authority accommodating more than 3,500 companies from over 44 countries. FFZ is witnessing growing demand from investors especially in the oil and logistics sectors, to utilize the 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 7 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1947 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.2200 EUR/QAR 4.3505 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3073 JPY/QAR 0.0333 USD/CHF 0.9567 GBP/QAR 4.7605 USD/CAD 1.2226 CHF/QAR 3.8063 AUD/USD 0.8000 CAD/QAR 2.9785 NZD/USD 0.7200 AUD/QAR 2.9132 USD/INR 63.6075 INR/QAR 0.0572 USD/TRY 3.4255 TRY/QAR 1.0631 USD/ZAR 12.7758 ZAR/QAR 0.2850 USD/BRL 3.1002 BRL/QAR 1.1746 FX Commentary The USD traded marginally higher against a basket of currencies yesterday, after the nation’s lawmakers decided raise the government’s debt limit till mid-December. Moreover, indications of modest growth in economic activity during July-17 and Auguist-17 in the US Federal Reserve’s Beige book, also supported the USD. The gains in the greenback were capped as services activity in the nation disappointed market expectations in August17. The EUR traded broadly unchanged, after the German factory orders data trailed analysts’ expectations in July-17. The CAD inched higher against the USD, after the Bank of Canada lifted its lending rates, surprising market expectations. Moreover, favorable Canadian trade deficit and higher oil prices also supported the currency. JPY closed lower against the USD, amidst strength in later. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.32 1.71 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.16) 1.94 2.04 2.24 2.43 2.95 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.79 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.95 1.11 1.33 1.55 2.13 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.03 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.06% 1.29% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.81% 3.01% 3.21% 1.67% 1.92% 2.09% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.26% 2.71% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.4 0.8 Turkey 165.3 (72.6) UK 21.4 (1.1) Brazil 187.9 (35.5) Germany 15.9 (6.5) Egypt 357.4 (2.9) France 23.3 (43.5) Abu Dhabi 56.9 13.9 Italy 146.0 (30.6) Bahrain 237.5 12.8 Greece 570.2 (528.1) Dubai 119.6 0.9 Russia 143.0 (20.6) Qatar 93.2 (24.6) Japan 32.8 8.8 Saudi Arabia 86.8 (1.5) 2.0% 1.53% 1.0% 1.89% 1.75% 1.32% 1.04% 1.21% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 2.05% 1.46% 2.37% 1.74% 0.0% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Germany Industrial Production SA MoM Period Survey Prior Jul 0.50% (1.10%) 10:30 UK 12:00 Eurozone Halifax House Prices MoM Aug 0.20% 0.40% GDP SA QoQ Q2 F 0.60% 0.60% 12:00 Eurozone GDP SA YoY 14:45 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate Q2 F 2.20% 2.20% Sep-07th 0.00% 14:45 Eurozone ECB Marginal Lending Facility Sep-07th 0.25% 0.00% 0.25% 14:45 Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate Sep-07th (0.40%) (0.40%) 15:30 Canada Building Permits MoM Jul (1.50%) 2.50% 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-02nd 245k 236k 15:30 US Continuing Claims Aug-26th 1945k 1942k 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Sep-01st - 420.5b 16:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Sep-03rd - 53.3 02:50 Japan BoP Current Account Balance Jul ¥2030.1b ¥934.6b 02:50 Japan Trade Balance BoP Basis Jul ¥518.0b ¥518.5b 02:50 Japan GDP SA QoQ Q2 F 0.70% 1.00% 02:50 Japan GDP Annualized SA QoQ Q2 F 2.90% 4.00% 02:50 Japan GDP Deflator YoY Q2 F (0.40%) (0.40%) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 7 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 0.0 0.0 8.3 2.2 6.3 5.3 4.0 0.0 5.1 7.3 2.5 6.2 3.5 5.9 4.5 5.9 4.0 6.3 0.0 9.5 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.1 5.7 0.0 4.5 4.5 4.1 2.3 7.1 5.5 4.5 3.8 4.3 2.0 4.3 6.2 2.5 7.9 4.5 0.0 8.2 5.7 4.0 0.0 3.2 3.3 6.1 5.5 5.4 4.1 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.7 1.8 0.9 1.9 0.7 2.3 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.9 0.9 1.5 1.1 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 3.9 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.7 2.2 0.5 2.6 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 9.4 67.1 27.2 8.8 65.7 10.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.7 10.2 9.3 23.1 10.6 6.4 28.0 15.3 59.8 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.5 11.2 5.8 11.9 14.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 16.8 20.6 17.3 13.0 20.2 9.7 11.0 17.6 27.0 8.2 19.5 17.7 13.3 18.2 9.3 14.5 42.1 9.4 12.2 15.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.4 13.8 10.6 17.1 12.9 13.0 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 10.6 2.4 10.0 0.4 7.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.6 12.9 5.1 0.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.2 37.6 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 16.2 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.5 23.2 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 30.1 29.9 15.8 30.1 45.5 12.0 37.6 12.6 6.5 93.1 54.6 128.0 8.1 67.9 66.8 152.0 25.0 102.0 8.0 8.5 63.0 75.0 9.9 17.7 7.3 88.3 13.4 185.0 44.0 43.0 66.1 15.8 14.0 65.7 35.0 56.5 31.6 11.1 10.0 15.2 87.1 8.3 49.2 16.5 63.7 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4