MENA Market Report - 14 September

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Thursday , September 14, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets remained under pressure for second consecutive sessions, but sentiments within the week has been mostly subdued due to lack of newsflow. On the positive note, oil prices moving higher and crossing the $55 mark per barrel augurs well for the region, however stability at current levels will be an important factor for the regional governments. For the regional markets, five out of the eight ended in red, while two in green and one remained unchanged for the day. Qatar continued to slide further as the index was down by 0.5% for the day, extending the weekly losses to 2.9% and monthly to 4.2%. Investors are losing patience over a possible solution to the ongoing geopolitical crisis as both parties does not seem to end the crisis anytime soon. Saudi Arabia closed on a negative note as it was down by 0.3% for the day, while the performance during the week remains positive. UAE markets closed mostly lower as Abu Dhabi was down by 0.4%, while Dubai was unchanged for the day. Abu Dhabi gave away the previous day's gains to turn flat for the week, while Dubai remains in green. Egypt ended on a negative note as it was down by 0.2% for the day, second consecutive session of losses. Kuwait closed on a positive note as it was up by 0.3% for the day, extending the weekly gains. Bahrain closed lower by 0.5%, while Oman was marginally up by 0.1% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a positive note as DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P were all up 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.1% respectively. European markets ended on a marginally positive note as DAX and CAC were both up by 0.2% each, while FTSE was down by 0.3% for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are all down by 0.1%, 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, Headlines (WW) US economy continues recovery, tops pre-recession income highs (ME) IFC allocated USD 1.7bn in MENA in FY 2017 to support economic growth (WW) Hurricanes will buffet US economy for months to come (SA) Residential rent won't be subject to VAT in Saudi, but some sales will (WW) China debt mountain weighs on global financial stability (SA) Saudi investors to remain confident in Dubai property sector (WW) China data blast may show factory pickup, cooling investment (AE) Dubai signs deal to target Chinese property buyers (WW) Businesses warn UK digital economy at risk from Brexit (AE) New UAE VAT and tax procedures laws (WW) UK unemployment rate falls to 4.3% as wages stagnate (AE) UAE to boost investment and trade with Chad (WW) UK households at breaking point as real wages continue to fall (EG) Egypt's digital economy is set to reach a record-high of USD 3.5bn in 2017 (WW) Japan seen adopting extra budget despite solid economy (EG) Egypt's economic growth hits 5% in outgoing fiscal year (WW) Indian economy looking up after GST shock, but China recovering faster (QA) Qatar injects USD 38bn into economy to counter embargo (CMD) Oil edges up as IEA sees higher oil demand, shrinking inventories (QA) Qatar sovereign fund says most of future U.S. investments in infrastructure (CMD) Gold steady amid firm dollar, geopolitical tensions support (QA) Qatar startups, manufacturing sector gain more govt support (FX) Dollar treads water; sterling soars to one-year high (OM) Chinese firm to set up USD 2.8bn Petrochem firm in Oman's Duqm (FX) Canadian dollar weakens as yield advantage versus US moderates (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,654.61 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 3.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,453.53 -0.4% -0.0% -0.3% -2.0% ˅ ˅ ˅ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,379.62 -0.3% 0.3% 1.7% 2.3% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,924.92 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 20.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 13,442.55 -0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 8.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,427.77 -0.5% -2.9% -4.2% -19.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,306.04 -0.5% -0.7% 0.3% 7.4% ˄ ˅ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,016.61 0.1% -0.6% -0.7% -13.2% ˄ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 81 205 247 36 80 88 85,700 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 117 106 98 66 44 46 132,166 Saudi (SASEIDX) 132 139 156 1,029 805 795 466,583 Kuwait (KWSE) 111 79 165 88 62 67 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 362 281 283 88 51 67 19,675 Qatar (DSM) 12 9 10 56 68 80 99,504 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 2 2 3 1 1 2 20,793 Oman (MSM30) 11 14 15 7 7 8 13,965 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Thursday , September 14, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 12 PB 14.3 10.6 Previous Current 600 489.3 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.2 386.2 8.5 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.9 Qatar Bahrain Oman - - - 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait 27% 6.1% 4.7% 4.2% 4% Bahrain Oman Average 9% 3.5% 3.0% 20.5% 18% 5.4% 4.7% Qatar Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% Egypt 8.9% 7.0% 3.5% 2.3% 0% -2.0% -9% 2% -13.2% -18% 0.0% -19.2% 0.0% 0% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Thursday , September 14, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.14 -2.63% 4,251 4,912 5,191 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.37 -1.34% 512 192 1,108 2,289 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 3.08 -1.30% 3,701 11,475 0.89% 3,351 3,737 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.06 -0.94% 1,053 1,122 0.87% 421 482 DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.40 -0.83% 3,552 8,560 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) GULF PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 2.40 9.58% 1 2 COMMERCIAL BANK INTERNATIONAL 1.00 -10.00% 1 1 ABU DHABI AVIATION 2.80 7.14% 333 901 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 1.03 -2.91% 136 142 ABU DHABI NATIONAL INSURANCE CO 3.85 3.90% 1 4 SHARJAH CEMENT AND INDUSTRIAL 1.08 -2.78% 203 222 INTERNATIONAL HOLDING COMPANY 1.45 2.07% 70 100 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 0.87 -2.30% 16,553 14,570 UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 4.20 1.90% 21,097 87,781 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.89 -2.25% 739 666 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI ENAYA COOPERATIVE INSUR CO 21.92 9.76% 1,914 40,082 ALMARAI CO SJSC 81.80 -10.02% 2,390 206,377 SOLIDARITY SAUDI TAKAFUL CO JSC 19.30 8.60% 2,287 42,391 RAYDAN COMPANY CJSC 20.20 -5.35% 68 1,409 NAMA CHEMICALS COMPANY SJSC 20.00 3.40% 980 19,270 BAAZEEM TRADING COMPANY CJSC 25.20 -3.17% 58 1,476 SABB TAKAFUL CO SJSC 27.60 2.90% 465 12,641 AL-OMRAN INDUSTRIAL AND TRADING 18.00 -2.22% 5 100 GULF GENERAL COOPERATIVE INSUR 19.10 2.51% 1,107 20,889 AMANA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 30.10 -1.99% 3,101 94,304 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) UNICAP INVESTMENT AND FINANCE 44.29 15.16% 0 0 GULF INVESTMENT HOUSE KSCP 28.70 -9.06% 1,265 38 KUWAIT CEMENT CO KSCP 434.00 7.14% 85 35 KUWAIT FINANCIAL CENTRE KPSC 110.00 -7.27% 73 8 KUWAIT AND MIDDLE EAST FINANCIAL 27.10 7.01% 7 0 FIRST TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO KPSC 61.90 -7.11% 9 1 AFAQ EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CO 110.00 4.55% 1 0 EFFECT REAL ESTATE COMPANY KPSC 32.00 -6.25% 65 2 PALMS AGRO PRODUCTION CO KSCP 89.90 4.45% 3 0 OSOS HOLDING GROUP CO KSCP 122.00 -5.74% 569 72 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) 0.81 9.88% 1,868 1,445 SUEZ CEMENT COMPANY SAE 29.97 -3.64% 3 84 EGYPT ALUMINUM CO SAE 106.94 7.80% 260 26,818 LECICO EGYPT SAE 5.76 -3.13% 18 105 EGYPT GAS CO SAE 247.89 7.36% 25 6,052 ALEXANDRIA SPINNING & WEAVING 1.35 -2.96% 25 34 EL NASR FOR MANUFACTURING AGRI 7.33 6.55% 17 122 DELTA SUGAR CO SAE 26.81 -2.83% 35 947 SHARM DREAMS COMPANY 4.80 5.83% 1,361 6,351 MEMPHIS PHARMACEUTICALS 14.21 -2.81% 13 190 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATAR FIRST BANK LLC 6.25 4.16% 3,880 23,766 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ 74.01 -3.26% 0 18 QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE & REINS 36.00 2.78% 1 46 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QPSC 53.99 -3.11% 3 137 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QPSC 46.79 1.92% 79 3,681 QATAR ELECTRICITY AND WATER CO 183.49 -2.72% 51 9,579 INVESTMENT HOLDING GROUP 7.20 1.67% 217 1,553 AAMAL CO QPSC 9.50 -2.42% 313 3,010 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 67.96 1.49% 6 404 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 42.00 -2.14% 3 135 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) EMIRATES ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 6.70 2.99% 0 25 MARKA PJSC 0.73 1.64% 0 NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 2.08 1.44% AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 1.12 AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.15 Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Top Gainers Egypt HOLDING COMPANY FOR FINANCIAL Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Thursday , September 14, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 80,638 100.80 0.0% 10.2% 3,984 107,088 105.40 76.00 16 1.9 6.0% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 41,793 17.65 -0.3% -6.1% 785 3,772 20.00 17.10 18 3.5 4.5% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 40,106 75.20 -0.1% 0.0% 84 1,681 78.90 51.00 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 30,983 123.70 -1.0% -16.5% 176 5,915 157.27 121.70 9 1.6 2.6% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 30,858 10.40 -0.5% 4.1% 4,127 11,687 11.55 8.30 13 1.2 4.3% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 29,726 68.60 0.3% 8.9% 2,149 39,312 71.70 48.60 13 2.1 3.3% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 29,066 54.50 -0.4% 27.9% 168 2,439 58.00 32.00 12 1.8 2.9% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 26,088 23.48 -1.5% 4.8% 1,273 7,968 26.05 14.30 11 1.4 3.0% 9 DP World Ltd AE 18,243 21.98 0.5% 25.5% 277 1,660 23.85 15.53 18 1.8 1.7% 10 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 17,252 8.85 0.8% 24.1% 3,907 9,414 8.85 6.37 11 1.5 1.7% 11 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,679 67.30 -0.3% -10.0% 63 1,134 76.00 46.00 72 6.1 0.0% 12 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 16,608 53.30 0.9% 36.7% 712 10,126 54.00 27.80 243 2.4 0.0% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,701 73.60 -10.0% 7.4% 2,390 46,903 98.30 51.50 29 4.4 1.2% 14 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,295 778.00 -0.9% 25.7% 3,263 8,433 796.00 533.33 15 1.5 3.7% 15 Industries Qatar QSC QA 14,316 87.26 -0.2% -25.7% 65 1,536 122.00 86.61 20 1.6 4.6% 16 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 13,413 25.15 1.8% 3.3% 606 4,066 27.10 15.90 10 1.1 3.8% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,484 8.25 0.0% -2.8% 115 257 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.8% 18 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,570 604.00 -2.4% 23.0% 9,453 18,969 650.00 418.18 18 1.9 2.6% 19 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 11,180 27.95 -0.2% 0.0% 146 1,087 28.55 16.40 11 1.3 2.5% 20 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,870 11.00 1.9% -7.9% 889 2,608 12.95 9.80 72 1.4 4.5% 21 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 10,202 6.90 3.0% 0.0% 4 7 11.95 1.57 108 5.3 0.0% 22 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 10,093 31.40 -0.6% 20.3% 203 1,699 33.40 18.00 11 1.2 0.0% 23 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,950 7.03 -2.1% 1.9% 1,880 3,598 7.68 5.66 9 1.2 5.7% 24 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 9,248 11.56 -0.3% 0.1% 383 1,180 11.80 8.55 12 0.9 5.6% 25 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 8,575 2.42 -0.8% 0.0% 1,929 1,271 2.83 2.38 16 1.9 0.0% 26 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,505 56.70 0.4% 0.0% 176 2,663 61.75 39.90 15 2.1 0.0% 27 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,235 6.12 -0.3% 9.9% 1,084 1,807 6.29 5.01 10 1.2 7.4% 28 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 7,704 10.71 -0.8% -29.1% 185 536 18.10 10.70 14 1.0 4.7% 29 Masraf Al Rayan QPSC QA 7,485 36.80 1.1% -2.1% 412 4,114 45.40 33.05 14 2.3 5.4% 30 Mobile Telecommunications Company KW 7,403 515.00 1.0% 25.6% 7,608 13,016 520.00 325.00 13 1.7 6.8% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 570,267 3.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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