GCC Daily Market Update - 16 January

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 16 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,786.2 NA 25,803.2 NA 6,758.5 NA 7,769.1 (9.5) 13,200.5 (44.5) 5,509.7 (7.4) 112,159.2 (2,485.4) 23,714.9 61.1 31,338.9 (73.7) 3,410.5 (18.5) 34,843.5 251.1 NA NA NA (0.1) (0.3) (0.1) (2.2) 0.3 (0.2) (0.5) 0.7 4.2 4.4 5.7 1.1 2.2 3.7 (2.8) 4.2 4.7 3.1 2.3 4.2 4.4 5.7 1.1 2.2 3.7 (2.8) 4.2 4.7 3.1 2.3 8,947.0 7,483.2 4,602.0 3,495.8 6,626.6 5,069.3 1,324.1 1,680.4 3,792.0 (227.7) 43.6 16.9 (17.2) 19.7 (20.2) 4.7 NA 11.3 (2.5) 0.6 0.4 (0.5) 0.3 (0.4) 0.4 NA 0.3 5.0 3.6 4.6 3.7 3.4 (0.6) (0.6) 5.5 4.2 5.0 3.6 4.6 3.7 3.4 (0.6) (0.6) 5.4 4.3 70.3 64.3 3.2 1,334.9 321.9 0.4 NA NA 0.0 NA 0.6 NA NA 0.0 NA 4.6 6.7 6.4 2.0 (1.4) 4.6 6.7 6.4 2.0 (1.4) Global US markets remained closed yesterday, on account of a public holiday. The Stoxx Europe 600 index declined 0.2%, as the listed exporters were weighed by the strength in the EUR. Banking stocks having exposure towards the crisis-hit British construction firm Carillion remained under pressure, amid liquidation talks of the company. The UK’s benchmark fell 0.1%. Banking stocks with Asian focus remained lower, amid reports that the Chinese banking regulator indicated to remove the financial risks in the nation’s Banking industry. Equity benchmarks in China and Hong Kong inched lower, after Chinese domestic data indicated that money supply and loan growth in the nation remained sluggish during the last month. The Nikkei index rose 0.3%, led by gains in Financial shares. GCC Most GCC markets closed higher yesterday. The Saudi Arabian benchmark continued its upward trajectory, amid persistent hopes that the corruption crackdown is nearing completion. Index-heavyweight SABIC rose 3.0%, as higher oil prices improved the pricing prospects of petrochemical products. Bank AlBilad declined 2.3%, despite proposing higher H2-17 dividend, compared to H1-17. The Bahraini benchmark outperformed its regional peers, on the back of increased buying interest in Banking and Industrial shares. Qatar The QE index declined 2.5%, after UAE stated that a Qatari fighter jet intercepted with one of its passenger aircrafts, worsening political unrest in the nation. Heavy-selling activity in the final half-hour of the trading session, led to the overall losses in the benchmark. Trade turnover and volumes increased, with Banking and Industrial sectors together accounting for more than 74.0% of the total volume. Gulf Warehousing declined 6.1%, despite reporting a rise in its FY-17 net income. Out of 45 companies listed, 43 exchanged hands, of which 36 declined and 7 advanced. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.4 1.3 4.2 104.3 DSM 20 14.9 1.3 4.3 84.9 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.6 1.7 3.2 1,014.4 UAE (ADX) 16.4 1.3 4.4 38.9 UAE (DFM) 24.8 1.3 3.9 78.5 Kuwait (KSE) 16.0 1.1 5.2 57.3 Oman (MSM) 11.7 1.0 5.2 5.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.8 0.8 5.9 2.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar General Ins & Re Doha Insurance Co Al Khalij Com Bank Salam Int’l Investment Mannai Corporation Top Losers Qatar Navigation Islamic Holding Group Gulf Warehousing Co Qatar Insurance Co Aamal Co Close Price 47.8 14.4 13.5 6.9 62.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 (2.5) 2.9 (5.0) 0.3 5.1 12.7 0.1 64.8 (19.6) 9.4 9.4 (20.6) 1,585.6 10.7 (40.4) 172.1 19.5 (24.2) 17.3 6.1 55.1 37.1 44.0 56.9 8.6 (4.9) (2.9) (2.9) (3.6) (0.5) (8.1) (7.1) (6.1) (6.0) (5.6) (1.5) (1.1) 0.1 9.4 (0.9) (40.4) (41.5) (21.7) (25.8) (44.2) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 47.0 156.6 89.8 40.1 511.4 19.8 68.5 12.0 24.0 11.8 Qatar DSM Index 9,200 15.0 8,947.0 8,775 10.0 8,350 5.0 7,925 7,500 19/Oct 0.0 2/Nov 16/Nov 30/Nov Index Volume (mn) 14/Dec 28/Dec 11/Jan Index Value Closing Level 2,786.6 5,171.2 2,774.5 3,703.1 2,021.9 1,133.4 1,820.9 1D Change (%) (2.0) (1.6) (2.5) (3.7) (1.2) (1.8) (4.9) Buy (%) 45.9 25.1 71.0 13.4 15.6 29.0 Sell (%) 40.8 25.4 66.2 14.8 19.0 33.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 16 , 2018 scientific and technological and industrial services. The country also signed 6 MoUs with Japan during the Saudi-Japanese Business Forum. GLOBAL NEWS      Eurozone’s international trade in goods surplus increased by 10.5% YoY to EUR 26.3bn in November-17, driven by increase in exports by 7.7% YoY to EUR 197.5bn, while imports rose by 7.3% YoY to EUR 171.2bn during the same period. (Source: EC) Saudi Arabia based Dar Al-Arkan Real Estate Development Company has started its development works on I Love Florence Tower worth AED 800.0mn (USD 218.0mn), located on the Dubai Water Canal in the Business Bay area. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Electricity Company has signed a deal with Japan based Tokyo Electric Power Company, Nissan Motor Company and Takaoka Toko for the first electric vehicle pilot project in the country. Under the deal, fast charger stations would be built to charge vehicles in 30.0 minutes against the overnight charging for the cars. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain has completed the work of the North Town road project, which is 1.2km long with 4 lanes on each direction. The road connects the interchange at Janabiya-Budaiya areas of Bahrain to the North Town. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait Petroleum International, an affiliate of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, has acquired 50.0% stake in Oman’s Duqm refinery, according to Kuwait High Petroleum Commission. The refinery would be able to process 230,000 barrels per day spread across 900 hectares, with expected investments of USD 15bn during next ten years. (Source: Japan’s producer price index increased by 3.1% YoY and 0.2% MoM in December-17, driven by monthly increase in petroleum and coal products, which accounted for 0.1% to the change. Export price index increased by 0.3% MoM, while import price index increased by 1.9% MoM during the same period. (Source: BOJ) The People’s Bank of China injected CNY 270.0bn (USD 42.0bn) via open-market operations in the economy, to counter seasonal tightening of liquidity. (Source: Bloomberg)  Turkey’s producer price index of agricultural products increased by 17.3% YoY in December-17, driven by a 21.0% YoY rise in prices of forestry products and 17.3% YoY rise in prices of agriculture and hunting products. (Source: TurkStat)  Turkey’s unemployment rate fell to 10.3% in October-17 as compared to 12.0% in October-16. The non-agriculture unemployment rate fell to 12.3% compared to 14.1% during the same period. (Source: TurkStat)  Turkey is planning to launch an incentive scheme in January-18 to boost investment in 20 projects to TRY 80.0bn (USD 21.0bn). The projects would be ranging from healthcare to energy sector, Turkey’s Economy Minister, Nihat Zeybekci, stated. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  (Source: Saudi Gazette) Eurozone’s trade surplus increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 18.4% MoM to EUR 22.5bn in November-17, driven by monthly increase in exports by 3.4%, while import rose by 1.6%. (Source: EC) UAE based Al Ansari Exchange and Al Ansari Exchange Services have completed their merger after getting approvals from all official entities, with total operating capital amounting to AED 1.2bn. (Source: KUNA)  (Source: Kuwait Times)  Oman’s narrow money (M1) supply declined by 1.4% YoY to OMR 4.9bn, while broad money (M2) increased by 3.5% YoY to OMR 16.1bn in November-17. (Source: CBO)  Central Bank of Oman’s total assets decreased by 21.9% YoY to OMR 6.9bn, of which foreign assets amounted to OMR 6.0bn in November17. Total currency issued by the bank increased by 3.9% YoY to OMR 1.7bn during the same period. (Source: CBO) Trade Arabia)  Dubai Economy’s Business Registration and Licensing sector reported 288,878 transactions, which included issuance of 19,877 new licenses, during the year 2017, according to the Business Map report. Renewal of licenses accounted for 44.6% of the total transactions, while initial approval transactions accounted for 9.0% of the total transactions. QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s industrial production index decreased by 1.5% MoM, while it increased by 7.1% YoY in November-17. The mining and quarrying index, which accounts for 83.6% of the total index, increased by 7.2% YoY, due to an increase in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas by 7.2% YoY and other mining and quarrying segments rose by 2.8% YoY during the same period. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar banks reported a rise in the total deposits by 16.1% YoY in November-17 driven by decrease in liquidity presure on banking system. Broad money supply (M2) increased to 18.9% from 18.3% in October-17, while overnight and 3M interbank rates reached 2.07% and 2.75%, respectively, during the same period. (Source: The Peninsula)  Almost 90.0% of the total infrastructure projects and roads are expected to be completed in June-18, Prime Minister and Interior Minister, H E Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Al Thani stated. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Azizi Developments announced that the work for third and fourth phase of its water front development project, Azizi Riviera, worth AED 12.0bn (USD 3.3bn), will be starting during February-18. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Dubai based construction engineering company, Drake & Scull International announced that its subsidiary, Gulf Technical Construction Company, is planning to sign contracts worth AED 1.0bn (USD 272.0mn) with Wahat Al Zaweya’s developers. The contracts include development of 3.8mn sqm mixed-use project at Al Ain in Abu Dhabi. (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi City Municipality’s department of Urban Planning and Municipalities will appoint third party to conduct construction inspection and audit tasks of the mega development and engineering projects for government and semi-government entities. (Source: Trade (Source: The Peninsula)   Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, Masdar, signed a share purchase agreement with French based Akuo Energy to enter into the Krnovo Wind Farm project, a Montenegro’s first wind energy venture. Under the agreement, Masdar will acquire 49.0% stake of Krnovo Green Energy, a subsidiary of Akuo Energy. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Arabia has granted 3 investment licenses to Japanese companies in the field of in the financial, administrative, renewable energy, Qatar Financial Centre announced that new firms licensed increase by 66.0% YoY during 2017, while total number of firms on the QFC platform increased by 32.5% YoY to 461 as at the end of 2017. (Gulf Times) Arabia)  Kuwait and Gulf Link Transport Company has signed a logistic contract worth USD 1.4bn with the US Defense Department’s logistic defense agency. Under the agreement, the company will provide foodstuff and logistic services for US troops in Kuwait, Iraq and Jordan for 24 months.  Hamad International Airport has welcomed 120.0mn passengers from the period May-14 till December-17. In the year 2017, the cargo segment reported an increase of 14.5% to 1.9mn tonnes in handling. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Ports Management Company, Mwani Qatar, signed a MoU with Italian Ports Association for cooperation in the field of maritime works sector, ports and operations management. (Source: The Peninsula) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 16 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2294 USD/QAR 3.6415 110.5400 EUR/QAR 4.4769 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3822 JPY/QAR 0.0329 USD/CHF 0.9631 GBP/QAR 5.0333 USD/CAD 1.2429 CHF/QAR 3.7810 AUD/USD 0.7965 CAD/QAR 2.9298 NZD/USD 0.7300 AUD/QAR 2.9005 USD/INR 62.9900 INR/QAR 0.0578 USD/TRY 3.7988 TRY/QAR 0.9586 USD/ZAR 12.3063 ZAR/QAR 0.2959 USD/BRL 3.2154 BRL/QAR 1.1325 FX Commentary The USD remained flattish against a basket of currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling unchanged at 90.974. Trading activity remained light as the US markets remained closed on account of a holiday. The EUR strengthened against the USD, following comments from one of the key policymakers of the European Central Bank that the central bank might end its bond purchases in one go after September-18, if the growth and inflation in the Euro area remains on track. The GBP advanced against the USD, following optimism that the Eurozone members are supporting for a soft Brexit deal. The CAD advanced against the USD, amid persistent speculations of a rate hike from the Bank of Canada in its upcoming policy meeting. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.44 1.47 1.56 1.72 2.17 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.02 2.15 2.30 2.62 3.00 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.61 1.69 1.89 2.29 2.0% EIBOR 1.14 1.32 1.64 1.82 2.60 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.13 2.40 2.98 NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.38 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.51% 2.01% 4.46% 3.01% 3.10% 3.19% 2.35% 2.48% 2.55% 2.84% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg b Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.3 1.3 Turkey 161.5 (30.6) UK 18.0 (4.1) Brazil 147.1 (78.7) Germany 10.3 (6.4) Egypt 309.0 (98.5) France 18.2 (5.1) Abu Dhabi 54.5 (7.4) Italy 110.2 (38.5) Bahrain 283.5 42.4 Greece 356.9 (246.5) Dubai 114.7 (13.1) Russia 111.2 (55.2) Qatar 93.8 (13.0) Japan 23.8 (3.7) Saudi Arabia 83.0 (22.7) 2.21% 2.54% 2.46% 2.40% 2.0% 1.0% 2.28% 2.11% 1.95% 2.65% 2.52% 1.49% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 12:00 Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Period Survey Prior Dec F 1.00% 1.00% 12:30 UK 12:30 UK CPI MoM Dec 0.40% 0.30% CPI YoY Dec 3.00% 3.10% 12:30 UK CPI Core YoY 02:50 Japan Core Machine Orders MoM Dec 2.60% 2.70% Nov (1.40%) 5.00% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) Gulf Warehousing Company NA NA NA Bank Muscat NA NA NA Bank Dhofar NA NA Sharjah Islamic Bank NA Ooredoo Oman YoY (%) QoQ (%) 58.1 4.7 11.8 46.6 17.4 1.3 NA 12.8 19.4 6.1 NA NA 117.7 (7.4) 35.1 69.3 1.6 (0.0) 7.9 (8.8) (16.2) Ominvest NA NA NA 4.9 (44.9) 67.0 National Bank Of Oman NA NA NA 9.5 (30.7) 11.8 HSBC Bank Oman NA NA NA 5.4 56.9 (0.8) Phoenix Power Co 19.9 (8.4) (57.1) (6.2) NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 16 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 11th January 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 0.0 0.0 9.5 2.4 5.6 4.7 4.5 0.0 4.8 6.8 2.4 6.3 3.4 6.5 3.7 6.1 4.2 6.4 0.0 11.5 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.5 5.3 4.9 3.8 4.4 4.1 2.5 7.0 6.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 2.5 3.1 6.0 2.8 7.1 3.9 0.0 7.7 5.1 3.6 0.0 3.0 3.4 5.7 6.0 5.4 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 1.8 0.9 1.7 0.8 2.5 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.9 0.9 1.6 1.0 2.4 2.2 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.5 3.7 0.7 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.6 1.9 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.7 2.1 0.7 2.6 1.4 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.9 45.1 24.6 9.0 75.0 10.7 15.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.9 10.9 9.5 22.3 11.0 6.0 34.4 14.9 35.8 14.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.8 11.3 6.0 12.4 12.7 (H) ( ) 11.5 24.8 15.9 12.5 20.2 10.5 11.5 18.9 31.5 9.1 27.2 65.7 13.8 27.6 10.3 17.6 55.7 9.5 14.0 16.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.1 13.1 12.1 21.4 14.4 13.9 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 0.7 -0.5 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 2.1 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.3 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 12.5 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 24.4 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.3 23.4 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 28.0 Stock Price (QR) 35.0 29.0 14.9 31.5 41.0 13.5 42.5 11.2 6.6 99.0 59.0 133.0 8.0 61.4 80.6 148.0 23.9 109.4 6.5 7.0 65.5 78.0 9.2 18.8 6.1 106.0 13.7 184.0 40.6 43.1 64.0 14.0 14.1 60.5 48.5 58.5 35.0 12.7 8.8 16.3 96.5 8.2 47.5 17.7 58.9 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4