MENA Market Report - 18 February

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Sunday , February 18, 2018 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets ended the last trading session on a negative note as five out of the eight indexes closed in red, while three in green for the day. The performance of the regional markets was largely positive during the week with Kuwait being the best performer with gains of 1.6%, followed by 1.4% in Saudi Arabia and 1.5% in Qatar, while Abu Dhabi was the only index to close in red with losses of 0.5%. Although the markets have seen some recovery during the week, the sentiments have continued to remain under pressure during the month. For the day, Saudi Arabia was the best performer with gains of 1.2% during the session, extending the gains during the week. The index witnessed broad based buying activity, but the index was supported by 2.0% gains in banking sector stocks. Egypt was another index that closed on a positive note as it was up by 1.1% for the day, which helped the broader index in recovering the losses to turn in green. UAE markets ended on a negative note as both Dubai and Abu Dhabi were down by 0.2% each for the day. The performance of both Dubai and Abu Dhabi were mixed during the week as Dubai was up by 0.1%, while Abu Dhabi was down by 0.5% during the week. Kuwait closed in red as it was down by 0.2% for the day, however the index closed the week on a positive note with gains of 1.6%. Qatar closed in red as it was down by 0.4% for the day, however the index closed in green during the week. Bahrain was down by 0.2%, while Oman was up by 0.2% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a positive note as DJIA and S&P were up by 0.1% and 0.04% respectively, while Nasdaq was down by 0.2% for the day. European markets closed on a positive note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all up by 0.8%, 0.9% and 1.1% respectively for the day. Asian markets have closed on a positive note as Nikkei was up by 1.2%, while Hang Seng and Shanghai were closed for the day. Headlines (WW) US healthcare spending to climb 5.3% in 2018 (ME) Middle East’s financial landscape transforming at rapid pace (WW) US mortgage applications fall as home loan rates hit 4-year high (GCC) GCC F&B market set to grow to USD 196bn by 2021 (WW) China's central bank says has cut leverage, but will continue to fight risks (GCC) Gulf's interest rate reprieve may end as US spreads stop narrowing (WW) China continues to put jobs first in its economic restructuring (SA) 'Collective bill' deals a big blow to SMEs in Saudi Arabia (WW) Euro zone production jumps more than expected in Dec as economy powers on (AE) Tourism sector to create 77,400 new jobs by 2026 (WW) Euro-area economy keeps cruising speed as outlook improves (EG) Egypt in funding talks with European banks for Cairo metro project (WW) French unemployment falls to lowest level since 2009 (EG) Egypt's central bank cuts interest rates as inflation eases (WW) Japan's Dec machinery orders fall at fastest in 3 years, cast doubt on capex (EG) Egypt's unemployment rate down to 11.3 in Q4/2017 (CMD) Oil rises by 1% on Saudi commitment to withhold output, weak dollar (QA) Qatar forex reserves rise to USD 37.6bn in December (CMD) Gold holds steady near 2-1/2-week high as dollar dips (BH) Bahrain has tendered USD 4.1bn of projects backed by GCC Development Fund (FX) Dollar erases inflation-fuled gains as momentum wears off (BH) Bahrain's economy now fastest growing in the Gulf region (FX) Pound-to-Yen rate looking dangerously poised for big break lower (OM) FDI in Oman rises 13% to touch OMR 8.3bn (FI) US 10-year bond yield exceeds Australia's for the first time in 18 years (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,330.44 -0.2% 0.1% -1.9% -1.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,577.42 -0.2% -0.5% -0.5% 4.1% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,510.47 1.2% 1.4% -1.8% 3.9% ˅ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,764.28 -0.2% 1.6% 1.1% 5.6% ˄ ˄ ˅ Egypt (EGX30) 14,965.93 1.1% 0.3% -0.5% -0.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 9,027.71 -0.4% 1.5% -1.9% 5.9% ˅ ˄ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,339.72 -0.2% 0.5% -0.8% 0.6% ˄ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,016.62 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -1.6% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 186 248 237 81 111 100 85,477 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 53 79 88 30 38 44 133,628 Saudi (SASEIDX) 154 195 168 949 974 881 463,953 Kuwait (KWSE) 52 86 96 31 46 59 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 290 271 329 85 85 79 26,153 Qatar (DSM) 7 11 10 79 87 71 102,803 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 5 6 5 4 3 3 22,266 Oman (MSM30) 6 13 17 3 7 10 14,058 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Sunday , February 18, 2018 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB Previous Current 600 13.4 11.8 12 10.6 10.6 10.5 8.2 8.1 4 1.1 1.3 2.2 1.7 298.1 300 8 250.4 149.0 109.5 1.2 - - 0.8 0.9 Bahrain Oman - 57.3 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Dubai Average Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 8% 6% 92.1 86.2 6.1% 4.8% 5.2% 4.3% 4.0% 5.9% 5.6% 6% 5.9% 5.3% 4.1% 4% 3.9% 4% 3.0% 2% 0.6% 2% 0% 0.0% -2% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -0.4% -1.2% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain -1.6% Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Sunday , February 18, 2018 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.27 -2.99% 0 5,840 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.36 -2.44% 0 214 NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.79 -2.19% 4,348 7,869 AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.30 -1.52% 8,922 11,688 EMAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 5.61 -1.41% 3,970 22,430 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) 3 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.19 -3.10% 14,017 31,188 0 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.85 -2.30% 202 174 20 58 ABU DHABI NATIONAL HOTELS CO 2.80 -2.10% 400 1,132 500 1,030 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 1.02 -1.92% 59 61 4,968 3,155 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.57 -1.72% 9,476 5,449 DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) 184.00 9.92% 47 8,258 ALINMA TOKIO MARINE CO SJSC 23.98 -3.07% 304 7,412 SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 79.30 7.16% 1,099 84,213 ETIHAD ETISALAT CO SJSC 14.54 -2.02% 4,110 60,369 TOURISM ENTERPRISES CO SJSC 32.60 6.71% 922 29,118 AL-OMRAN INDUSTRIAL AND TRADING 16.10 -1.59% 6 105 UNITED ELECTRONICS COMPANY JSC 56.10 5.85% 751 40,953 SOLIDARITY SAUDI TAKAFUL CO JSC 24.90 -1.58% 766 19,219 SAUDI BRITISH BANK SJSC 29.60 4.78% 579 16,738 DAR AL ARKAN REAL ESTATE DEV 9.95 -1.49% 36,117 362,078 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 30.00 19.52% 2 0 KUWAIT CABLE VISION COMPANY 20.00 -20.00% 0 0 SANAM REAL ESTATE COMPANY KSCP 33.00 17.86% 0 0 KUWAIT FINANCE AND INVESTMENT 40.00 -11.89% 22 1 31.50 -10.00% 26 1 Close DoD % Volume Value DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE & REINS 0.81 3.85% 0 1,348 ARAMEX PJSC 4.65 3.33% 0 4,058 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.11 2.78% 39 43 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 2.57 1.98% 5,095 12,966 MARKA PJSC 0.53 1.52% 7,119 3,766 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) GULF MEDICAL PROJECTS CO PSC 2.03 14.69% 2 SHARJAH CEMENT AND INDUSTRIAL 1.35 14.41% 0 NATIONAL BANK OF UMM AL QAIWAI 2.99 6.79% ABU DHABI SHIP BUILDING PJSC 2.09 2.96% ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.64 1.59% Close * SAUDI INDUSTRIAL EXPORT CO SJSC Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Top Losers NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDING 68.00 9.68% 56 4 KUWAIT FOUNDRY COMPANY KPSC 235.00 5.86% 4 1 TAMKEEN HOLDING CO 20.50 -8.89% 320 7 AL AHLI BANK OF KUWAIT KSCP 313.00 5.74% 103 31 REAL ESTATE TRADE CENTERS CO 31.00 -7.46% 47 2 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) 0.08 14.29% 0 30 INTERNATIONAL COMPANY FOR INVST 10.84 -7.82% 4 43 AL ARAFA FOR INVESTMENT AND CON 0.23 9.52% 1,501 330 SUEZ BAGS CO SAE 24.61 -7.69% 1 38 ARAB ALUMINUM CO SAE 36.55 7.12% 34 1,185 ARAB CERAMIC CO SAE 3.37 -3.71% 613 2,106 QATAR NATIONAL BANK ALAHLY SAE 55.16 5.91% 28 1,490 EL NILE COMPANY FOR PHARMA 15.37 -3.64% 4 59 MISR CEMENT CO SAE 34.38 5.69% 11 363 NAEEM HOLDING FOR INVESTMENTS 0.61 -3.17% 351 218 Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value AL KHALIJ COMMERCIAL BANK PQSC 12.90 5.82% 1,218 15,283 MANNAI CORPORATION QPSC 63.11 -3.41% 9 606 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QPSC 59.49 3.10% 5 308 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QPSC 12.80 -3.03% 4 54 MAZAYA QATAR REAL ESTATE DEVELO 8.08 2.28% 440 3,518 COMMERCIAL BANK PSQC 28.11 -2.53% 42 1,187 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 33.50 2.13% 98 3,241 QATAR CINEMA AND FILM DIST 20.60 -2.37% 0 1 AL MEERA CONSUMER GOODS CO 152.98 1.65% 17 2,553 EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 9.45 -2.17% 245 2,341 TRANS OCEANS TOURS SAE Egypt Top Losers MENA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP Top Gainers Top Gainers Qatar Top Losers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Sunday , February 18, 2018 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 84,158 105.20 0.6% 3.3% 4,112 115,363 109.00 94.25 17 1.9 4.0% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 40,967 17.30 -0.6% -1.1% 606 2,856 18.85 15.75 17 3.6 4.6% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 39,946 74.90 1.5% 9.2% 266 5,315 78.90 64.75 15 2.4 5.3% 4 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 33,678 11.35 0.0% 10.7% 860 2,657 11.55 9.75 13 1.2 6.2% 5 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 32,213 127.00 0.8% 0.8% 123 4,287 157.10 115.01 9 1.5 4.7% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Ltd SA 32,066 74.00 2.9% 14.6% 5,496 108,456 76.00 61.00 14 2.3 3.0% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 31,466 59.00 1.2% 7.1% 541 8,505 59.90 37.00 12 1.9 2.9% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 22,399 20.16 1.3% -4.3% 1,053 5,661 26.05 19.76 8 1.1 3.5% 9 DP World Ltd AE 21,082 25.40 -1.0% 1.6% 6 43 27.06 20.02 21 2.1 1.5% 10 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,461 105.10 -1.8% 8.4% 31 909 121.60 85.00 19 1.9 4.8% 11 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 16,265 52.20 1.2% 0.2% 511 7,110 57.10 39.00 85 2.3 0.0% 12 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,013 760.00 1.1% 4.4% 2,040 5,186 800.00 640.00 14 1.4 3.9% 13 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 14,047 9.50 0.0% -3.1% 1 1 11.95 4.80 73 7.1 0.0% 14 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 14,027 56.60 -0.5% -4.2% 345 5,206 75.60 56.40 391 5.2 0.0% 15 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 13,590 8.98 0.9% 9.5% 1,939 4,742 9.09 7.95 6 0.8 4.5% 16 Almarai Co SJSC SA 13,493 50.60 0.6% -5.9% 420 5,669 78.64 50.00 24 3.5 1.5% 17 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 13,333 25.00 3.2% 6.3% 1,304 8,691 27.10 19.80 10 1.1 3.8% 18 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 12,145 6.23 -0.3% -4.7% 11,878 20,149 8.43 6.22 7 1.0 2.4% 19 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 11,840 29.60 4.8% 9.6% 579 4,568 31.00 20.05 12 1.4 2.4% 20 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,395 592.00 0.3% 2.8% 1,623 3,213 650.00 467.00 18 1.8 2.9% 21 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 11,008 13.76 0.7% 9.4% 785 2,879 14.18 10.10 13 1.1 4.7% 22 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,332 7.30 -0.3% 7.4% 88 174 7.60 6.55 9 1.2 5.8% 23 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,771 30.40 1.3% 6.7% 893 7,241 33.40 22.75 10 1.2 3.5% 24 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 9,735 64.90 0.6% 10.0% 264 4,571 66.50 52.00 15 2.2 5.0% 25 Kingdom Holding Co SA 9,191 9.30 0.2% 0.0% 86 213 12.00 7.90 54 1.1 0.0% 26 Masraf Al Rayan QPSC QA 8,597 41.74 -0.5% 10.6% 199 2,277 45.40 33.32 15 2.4 4.8% 27 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,464 6.29 0.6% 1.6% 2,246 3,846 6.63 5.36 8 1.2 7.2% 28 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 8,292 2.34 0.9% 9.9% 600 383 2.70 2.00 16 1.9 4.3% 29 Alinma Bank SJSC SA 8,096 20.24 0.0% 5.6% 20,207 109,063 20.86 14.00 15 1.5 4.0% 30 Ooredoo QSC QA 7,565 86.00 -0.9% -5.2% 34 807 116.10 78.00 14 1.2 4.1% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 581,633 3.7% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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