GCC Daily Market Update - 14 December

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 14 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,271.7 19,911.2 4,935.8 6,968.6 11,284.7 4,803.9 76,995.3 19,250.5 22,446.7 3,155.0 26,697.8 14.8 114.8 61.5 78.2 94.4 43.1 755.6 95.5 13.7 2.1 182.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.7 3.3 4.1 2.6 2.7 6.1 4.9 4.1 5.1 (1.5) (2.9) 0.2 11.1 14.3 7.5 11.6 5.0 3.6 7.3 1.1 2.4 (10.9) 2.2 10,397.6 7,108.4 4,539.9 3,625.2 5,671.6 5,732.4 1,188.1 1,581.5 2,946.7 68.8 (53.9) (9.1) (31.9) 34.6 36.1 (2.4) 31.2 26.3 0.7 (0.8) (0.2) (0.9) 0.6 0.6 (0.2) 2.0 0.9 6.2 1.5 5.4 7.9 2.1 4.5 1.2 6.3 2.6 (0.3) 2.8 5.4 15.1 1.0 6.0 (2.3) 9.5 5.3 55.7 53.0 3.5 1,156.7 259.3 0.0 0.2 (0.0) (6.8) (2.0) 0.1 0.3 (0.9) (0.6) (0.8) 9.2 5.9 3.8 (1.2) (1.3) 47.9 41.3 48.8 9.1 21.1 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks ended in green on Tuesday. US stocks hit record closing highs boosted by Technology and Energy companies. Among the Tech shares, Apple (+1.7%) provided the biggest support to the S&P and Nasdaq, while IBM (+1.7%) helped aid the Dow. In Europe, stocks were helped by gains in banks after Italy's largest lender, UniCredit unveiled a EUR 13bn share issue to clean up its balance sheet and boost profitability. While Italian index led gains, UK’s benchmark also staged a strong performance supported by upbeat inflation numbers. Data showing improvement in Eurozone current economic situation further boosted the risk on mode. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average added 0.5% as the dollar continued to strengthen against the yen. GCC Most Gulf were mixed on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s main index declined 0.8% for the second straight session as the bourse saw a broad based profit booking in anticipation of the 2017 budget announcement expected by the month-end. Petrochemical shares remained weak with Saudi Kayan leading the fall. Knowledge Economic City rose 1.5% after the company said it has sold land to Mouwasat for a capital gain of SAR 32.0mn to be reflected in its Q4-16 results. Dubai main index fell 0.9% on profit booking. Abu Dhabi ended in red dragged down by blue chips with Union National Bank closing 1.1% lower. Qatar QE index rose 0.7% on Tuesday, sustaining the bullish momentum for the sixth straight session on the back of strong crude oil prices driven by OPEC’s production cut announcement. Foreign investors remained bullish in the markets with strong buying activity witnessed in Telecom, Banking and Insurance counters. Overall trade turnover and volumes were on the decline, where Banking, Realty and Industrials sectors together accounted for about 84% of the total volume. About 49% of the traded stocks extended gains with high activity witnessed in QNB, Commercial Bank, Ooredoo, Qatar Insurance and Doha Bank. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.1 1.6 4.0 88.2 DSM 20 15.1 1.6 3.9 80.5 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.9 1.6 3.3 1,273.8 UAE (ADX) 11.7 1.4 5.4 30.7 UAE (DFM) 11.8 1.3 3.8 328.4 Kuwait (KSE) 18.7 1.0 4.2 46.4 Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.1 5.1 12.8 Bahrain (BAX) 9.7 0.4 4.7 0.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar National Bank QGMD Ooredoo Qsc Commercial Bank Qsc Qatar Industrial Manuf. Top Losers Mesaieed Petchem Dlala Holding Mazaya Qatar Real Est Gulf Intl Services Islamic Holding Group Close Price 159.8 10.2 99.0 33.5 44.0 3.8 0.2 1.9 0.6 0.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 9.6 (25.7) 32.0 (24.3) 10.4 20.1 (18.5) 42.4 (22.6) 15.8 16.2 20.6 14.2 31.7 61.6 (0.3) (0.4) (0.3) (0.6) (0.9) (2.1) (1.8) (1.8) (1.7) (1.4) (16.7) 11.5 5.3 (38.5) (21.7) (9.3) 260.1 19.9 12.6 29.0 NA 10.8 2,082.5 16.7 (35.3) 371.6 35.1 2.7 55.0 220.0 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 190.3 53.8 44.8 462.9 38.9 11.0 NA 14.5 32.9 10.6 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 18/Sep 40.0 10,397.6 20.0 0.0 2/Oct 16/Oct 30/Oct Index Volume (mn) 13/Nov 27/Nov 11/Dec Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,859.9 5,794.5 3,278.7 4,548.0 2,318.0 1,183.8 2,497.0 1D Change (%) 0.9 (0.4) 0.3 0.8 0.3 1.5 0.4 Buy (%) 24.5 35.5 60.0 10.5 29.5 40.0 Sell (%) 40.3 30.7 71.0 13.1 15.9 29.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 14 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  If OPEC sticks to its production target, assessed at 32.7mn barrels per day (mbpd), and non-OPEC producers deliver the agreed cuts of 558,000 barrels per day outlined on 10th December-16, then the market is likely to move into deficit in H1-17 by an estimated 0.6 mbpd, said the IEA in a new report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  US import prices fell 0.3% MoM in November-16 compared to a downwardly revised 0.4% MoM gain in the previous month mainly due to decline in petroleum cost. On an annual basis, import prices dipped 0.1% for the period. (Source: Reuters)  UK consumer prices rose 1.2% YoY in November-16, its highest rate in more than two years pushed up by more expensive clothing. Technology goods also turned costlier due to the impact of weaker GBP on back of June's Brexit vote. (Source: Reuters)  The troubled Italian bank- Monte dei Paschi di Siena confirmed that the European Central Bank had rejected its request for more time to raise capital, which will pile pressure on the Italian government to inject money into the bank. (Source: Reuters)  China’s National Development and Reform Commission said that the country aims to invest CNY 2.0tn (USD 290.0bn) in tourism by 2020 by attracting more private investment into the industry. (Source: Reuters)  The Chief Economist at the State Information Center of China said that the government will increase its fiscal deficit target to 3.5% of GDP next year in order to hit its economic growth target and to make up for tax reductions, while maintaining government spending. (Source: Reuters)  Moody's have warned over the deteriorating asset quality at Chinese banks, as the banks are facing increasing risks as a result of China's economic slowdown and rising leverage in the system. (Source: Econo Times)  Emaar Properties announced the appointment of Olivier Harnisch, earlier COO of Carlson Rezidor Hotel Group in Brussels, as the CEO of Emaar Hospitality Group, its hospitality and leisure business. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia's 2017 state budget is likely to show Riyadh has shrunk a huge deficit caused by cheap oil faster than expected, which may let it spend more to bolster a shaky economy, bankers and analysts in touch with Saudi economic officials said. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia remains the most strategic market in the region for the construction industry despite the impact of low oil prices on government finances and the cancellation of billions of dollars’ worth of projects, Christopher Seymour, regional development director at engineering and development consultancy Mott MacDonald said. (Source: Reuters)  Oman’s conventional banks achieved a robust of 9% YoY growth in aggregate personal loans or consumer loan portfolios, which stood at OMR 7.9bn in September-16. (Source: Times of Oman)  Arabia)   The GCC projects market is expected to record at best USD 120bn worth of contract awards in 2016, down at least a third on 2015 levels and well below what was initially forecasted, as low oil prices severely impact government expenditure, according to a new report by published by MEED Insight. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Qatar’s economy is expected to continue to grow steadily, supported by growth in non-oil sectors (+7.8% YoY in 2015) which would be the main contributor to the GDP growth in the coming years, according to Qatar’s Minister of Economy and Commerce. (Source: Zawya)  The Consumer Price Index of November-16 reached to 108.6 showing an increase of 0.1% MoM and 2% YoY, according to the Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics data. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar will cut its oil production from 1st January-16, in line with the global oil producers' decision to collectively reduce output by 1.2mn bpd in order to rebalance an already over-supplied global market. (Source: Gulf Times)  Business)  Damac Properties awarded 15 major construction and consultancy contracts valued at AED 1.26bn between August-16 and November16, bringing the total value of contracts awarded so far in 2016 to AED 6.51bn (USD 1.77bn), senior vice president said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai's Meydan Group will close an AED 600mn (USD 163mn) syndicated loan by the end of next week, sources close to the situation said. The debt facility, arranged by Commercial Bank of Dubai, will be used to finance a hotel project. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said it would cut crude supplies by 35% across its three export grades to meet commitments under an OPEC deal to curb output. (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar has employed over 2mn expatriate workers from more than 180 countries whose total remittances for the past six months amounted to QAR 28.9bn (USD 8bn), according to Qatar’s Minister of Administrative Development, Labor and Social Affairs. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatari Islamic banks’ lending grew at 7.2% in H1-16, outpacing the 6.5% growth at conventional banks (excluding Qatar National Bank’s acquisition of Finansbank A.S.in Turkey), mainly due to higher retail and real estate financing, said Fitch. (Source: The Peninsula)  Deploying smart grids can help Qatari economy diversify from oil and gas, according to a latest report by Booz Allen Hamilton, a management and technology consulting and engineering services firm. (Source: The Peninsula)  The volume of trade exchange between the US and the State of Qatar has reached USD 5.5bn since the beginning of this year until October16 and is expected to rise by the end of the year, US Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs said. (Source: QNA)  The head of Qatar's sovereign wealth fund told US officials it will invest USD 10bn in infrastructure projects in the US, sources said, in an apparent boost to the economic plans of president-elect Donald Trump. (Source: Reuters)  The period of trading for Commercial Bank’s QAR 1.5bn rights issues will start on 14th December-16 and continue until 28th December-16, the Qatar Stock Exchange announced. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The emirate of Abu Dhabi reintroduced a 5% cap on annual rent increases in an effort to protect tenants from unjustified hikes, after abolishing the cap three years ago. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai is working with HSBC on the financing of Expo 2020 Dubai, a USD 7bn exhibition centre project expected to attract 25 mn visitors, sources familiar with the matter said. The financing will come from bank loans and from various export credit agencies. (Source: Arabian Boursa Kuwait issued detailed regulations on market making to boost liquidity of securities listed in the stock market and enhance efficiency of the market. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS GCC NEWS  The MENA region will record its weakest economic growth next year since the global financial crisis in 2009 with overall average growth falling to 1.7% in 2017, according to a report released by Capital Economics. (Source: Arabian Business) Bahrain LNG, the developer of the country’s first floating natural gas terminal, has secured a USD 741mn loan which has a tenor of 20 years from a syndicate of nine international and regional banks. (Source: Trade 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 14 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0656 USD/QAR 3.6416 115.1900 EUR/QAR 3.8805 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2688 JPY/QAR 0.0316 USD/CHF 1.0121 GBP/QAR 4.6205 USD/CAD 1.3131 CHF/QAR 3.5981 AUD/USD 0.7500 CAD/QAR 2.7733 NZD/USD 0.7204 AUD/QAR 2.7312 USD/INR 67.0400 INR/QAR 0.0543 USD/TRY 3.4924 TRY/QAR 1.0427 USD/ZAR 13.6133 ZAR/QAR 0.2675 USD/BRL 3.3344 BRL/QAR 1.0921 FX Commentary USD rose against the basket of major currencies with dollar index up 0.04% as investors waited for signals from Fed officials over their stance in 2017 at the conclusion of the FOMC meet today. Soft import price reading had little impact on the currency as it is unlikely to change expectations on rate hike at the ongoing Fed meet. GBP continued its recovery on back of higher than expected inflation numbers. EUR fell against the greenback, majorly due to strength in the latter. The losses were however capped after data showed an upbeat Eurozone investor confidence and an increase in German consumer prices. JPY closed lower against the greenback, however rose from the 10 month low posted on Monday supported by data showing improvement in the big Japanese manufacturers' sentiment for the first time in six quarters in Q3-16. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.44 0.65 0.69 0.96 1.65 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.32) (0.08) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 4.61% QAIBOR 1.12 1.24 1.39 1.73 2.14 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.22 1.80 2.03 2.41 2.0% EIBOR 0.35 0.52 0.80 1.44 2.16 BMIBOR 0.45 0.65 1.00 1.58 2.05 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.38 2.00 0.0% 2.38% 0.66% 0.51% 1.60% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 2.84% 2.84% 2.03% 2.40% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 3.13% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.1 7.4 Turkey 284.2 13.4 UK 32.4 (5.0) Brazil 291.8 (67.0) Germany 23.4 4.3 Egypt 453.3 (23.3) France 38.5 (1.5) Abu Dhabi Italy 155.7 5.3 Greece 914.0 Russia 188.3 Japan 30.0 2.0% 2.31% 2.11% 1.90% 1.38% 1.64% 1.0% 2.17% 1.90% 2.63% 2.61% 1.04% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 60.5 (46.6) Bahrain 296.0 (115.4) (101.3) Dubai 147.0 (74.7) (81.2) Qatar 77.5 (43.5) (11.5) Saudi Arabia 114.0 (74.0) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Oct F - 0.10% 07:30 Japan Industrial Production YoY Oct F - (1.30%) 07:30 Japan Capacity Utilization MoM Oct - (2.00%) 10:45 France CPI EU Harmonized MoM Nov F 0.00% 0.00% 10:45 France CPI EU Harmonized YoY Nov F 0.70% 0.70% 10:45 France CPI MoM Nov F 0.00% 0.00% 10:45 France CPI YoY Nov F 0.50% 0.50% 12:00 Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Nov F 0.10% 0.10% 12:30 UK Claimant Count Rate Nov 2.30% 2.30% 12:30 UK Jobless Claims Change Nov 6.5k 9.8k 12:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Oct 4.80% 4.80% 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Dec-09th - (0.70%) 16:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Nov 0.30% 0.80% 16:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Nov 0.10% 0.00% 17:15 US Industrial Production MoM Nov (0.30%) 0.00% 22:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Dec-14th 0.75% 0.50% 03:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Dec P - 51.3 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 14 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.0 0.0 8.6 1.7 5.8 4.9 3.3 0.0 4.1 6.5 1.8 6.0 3.4 6.5 7.6 5.2 6.0 5.3 0.0 9.1 4.2 5.0 5.7 6.8 3.2 4.4 4.3 3.3 2.3 6.8 3.9 4.2 4.9 5.4 2.2 2.9 8.0 2.6 6.8 3.1 1.9 7.6 4.3 3.0 2.2 2.9 2.3 5.3 5.6 5.1 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.2 1.0 2.5 1.0 2.2 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.9 2.6 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.8 4.1 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.5 3.3 2.8 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.0 0.9 2.7 0.7 2.3 1.7 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 17.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.3 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.6 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.3 11.8 11.0 27.5 11.4 7.1 21.3 21.5 12.1 11.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.8 13.8 6.0 11.3 14.0 35.0 20.8 19.8 15.9 24.0 10.6 10.9 18.7 17.6 9.5 19.9 4.2 12.3 12.3 12.8 24.7 16.7 12.9 19.1 14.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.1 15.8 13.4 11.5 12.8 14.1 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 38.9 33.5 20.6 35.1 61.6 17.2 35.7 15.4 10.0 102.9 61.8 159.8 10.0 76.8 65.8 174.2 25.2 143.5 10.2 11.1 65.0 80.5 14.0 31.7 114.8 16.2 230.0 55.2 44.0 84.0 20.5 18.7 87.5 47.3 50.1 32.3 16.1 14.2 19.9 99.0 9.6 53.9 23.6 89.5 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4