GCC Daily Market Update - 5 December

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 5 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,192.0 19,170.4 4,739.4 6,730.7 10,513.4 4,528.8 73,390.9 18,426.1 22,564.8 3,243.8 26,230.7 0.9 (21.5) 5.3 (22.2) (20.7) (31.8) 871.1 (87.0) (313.4) (29.5) (329.3) 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 (0.3) (0.2) (0.7) 1.2 (0.5) (1.4) (0.9) (1.2) (0.3) 0.2 (1.5) (0.8) (1.2) (1.1) (0.8) 0.6 (1.0) (0.2) (1.6) 7.2 10.0 3.2 7.8 (2.1) (2.3) 2.3 (3.2) 3.0 (8.3) 0.4 10,010.3 7,130.3 4,261.9 3,417.1 5,554.9 5,610.0 1,175.9 1,497.3 2,852.2 96.5 36.7 (46.9) 56.1 (14.1) 19.9 (1.8) (0.0) 0.0 1.0 0.5 (1.1) 1.7 (0.3) 0.4 (0.2) (0.0) 0.0 2.2 1.9 (1.1) 1.7 0.0 2.2 0.2 0.6 (0.7) (4.0) 3.2 (1.1) 8.4 (1.1) 3.8 (3.3) 3.5 1.7 54.5 51.7 3.4 1,175.1 261.5 0.5 0.6 (0.1) 8.2 (1.7) 1.0 1.2 (2.0) 0.7 (0.6) 6.9 3.5 3.5 0.4 0.8 44.7 38.1 48.4 10.8 23.7 Source: Bloomberg Global Most global indices closed in red on Friday. US stocks closed little changed as gains in Energy stocks, post OPEC production cut, was offset by weakness in Technology counter, after growth prospects reduced on back of lower than expected payroll report and falling hourly wages. S&P eked gains, supported by defensive shares, like Utilities, Consumer Staples and Real Estate. The Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.4% over the possibility of the referendum rejecting constitutional reforms, resulting into PM Renzi’s departure destabilizing Italy's fragile banking system. In Asia, Nikkei closed in red, with stronger JPY weighing on the index, while Hang Seng index declined 1.4% in a broad based sell-off, with Commerce and Utilities sectors leading the charge. GCC Gulf indices closed on a mixed note on Sunday. Saudi Arabian stocks rose 0.5% as second and third tier stocks favored by local day traders outperformed. Most petrochemical shares lost steam as investors booked profits, as they turned focus to year-end earnings after factoring in the oil price rally. Abu Dhabi's index fell 1.1% as telecom major Etisalat (-3.5%) continued to weigh on the bourse. The losses were capped after Abu Dhabi National Energy surged 10% on the back of strong oil prices and Union National Bank added 1.3%. Dubai’s benchmark rose 1.7% driven by Emaar Properties and Dubai Islamic Bank. Qatar QSE Index rose 1.0% on Sunday benefitting from steep rise in oil prices last week, post OPEC’s decision to cut production. Strong buying activity was witnessed in Realty and Consumer Goods stocks. GCC Institutions and non-Qatari Individuals turned bullish on the bourse, while foreign institutions tuned net sellers. Trade turnover and volumes declined, with Telecom, Banking and Real estate sectors together accounting for more than 76% of the total volumes. Out of 42 stocks traded, 29 gained, 10 fell and 3 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Value Traded (USD mn) Qatar All share 13.6 1.5 4.1 53.8 DSM 20 14.5 1.5 4.0 39.4 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.9 1.7 3.3 1,756.8 UAE (ADX) 11.0 1.3 5.7 51.0 UAE (DFM) 11.1 1.3 4.0 334.7 Kuwait (KSE) 18.9 1.0 4.4 37.9 Oman (MSM) 10.6 1.1 5.1 6.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.6 0.4 4.8 1.0 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Islamic Insurance Medicare Group Vodafone Qatar QGMD Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Top Losers Qatar General Ins & Re Qatar Industrial Manuf. Islamic Holding Group Qatar & Oman Investm Qatar National Cement Close Price 51.0 67.0 9.4 9.6 20.1 2.5 3.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 5.2 4.7 4.0 2.8 2.2 (29.2) (43.8) (25.9) (29.7) (34.0) (26.1) 4.3 12.6 (48.1) 257.6 21.7 (20.8) 3,449.8 NA (25.6) 44.7 NA (34.6) 19.5 17.4 43.5 42.7 54.2 9.3 82.8 (1.5) (1.2) (0.8) (0.1) (0.7) (3.3) (2.7) (1.5) (1.0) (0.8) (6.4) 7.2 (31.1) (24.1) (10.7) (13.8) 2.6 (30.0) (23.4) (11.6) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 3.7 0.5 16.4 8.9 3.8 3.9 10.3 193.6 25.7 10.7 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 7/Sep 40.0 10,010.3 20.0 0.0 21/Sep 5/Oct 19/Oct Index Volume (mn) 2/Nov 16/Nov 30/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,766.2 5,739.7 3,159.2 4,361.1 2,212.4 1,125.0 2,434.6 1D Change (%) 0.8 1.0 0.7 (0.3) 1.8 0.9 0.4 Buy (%) 48.8 12.5 61.3 15.5 23.2 38.7 Sell (%) 56.5 17.2 73.7 10.7 15.6 26.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 5 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS   The US unemployment rate fell to a nine-year low of 4.6% in November-16, as employers added another 178,000 jobs, making it almost certain that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month. (Source: Times of Oman) US President-elect Donald Trump warned of imposing a whopping tax of 35% on products made by American companies that either outsource jobs overseas or build a new factory in another country .  (Source: Arabian Business)  Japanese Internet firm SoftBank is close to sealing an SAR 375.3bn (USD 100bn) for the technology fund it set up with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), the company’s CEO Masayoshi Son reportedly said. (Source: Arab News)  Omani insurance firms posted a 3.1% YoY growth in gross insurance premiums to OMR 357.2mn for 9M- 16. (Source: Times of Oman)  The real estate market in Oman is showing signs of recovery, according to an official of a leading real estate development company. Recent data released by the National Centre for Statistics and Information shows a growth of 124% in sales of properties in the Sultanate at OMR 7.7bn for the first ten months of 2016 as against OMR 3.4bn for the same period of 2015. (Source: Times of Oman)  The total outstanding credit extended by the conventional and Islamic banks stood at OMR 21.8bn at the end of September-16, a rise of 11% YoY. Credit to the private sector increased 13.2% YoY to OMR 19.7bn as at the end of September 2016 according to the bulletin published by the Central Bank of Oman. (Source: Times of Oman)  Kuwait is ranked first among the GCC countries attracting commercial banks from fellow member states to open branches in the country, according to a statistical report by GCC Secretariat. (Source: Kuwait Times) (Source: Economic Times)  The European Central Bank president is expected to announce an extension of asset purchases on 8th December 2016 at the current pace of EUR 80bn (USD 85bn) a month, according to most economists in a Bloomberg survey. (Source: Bloomberg)  WTO talks on scrapping import tariffs on environment-related exports worth more than USD 1tn collapsed, with disagreement among the 18 trade ministers on which goods to include, ranging from bicycles to gas turbines. (Source: Economic Times)  Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi quit after losing a referendum he had called to push through constitutional changes, leading to possibilities of a renewed political and financial turmoil for Europe. (Source: Bloomberg)  Greece must implement economic reforms if it is to keep its place in the Eurozone, Germany’s finance minister insisted, ruling out debt relief for the country ahead of a crucial Euro group meeting. (Source: QATAR NEWS The Guardian)  Russia plans to use its post-Soviet era record high November oil production as its baseline when it cuts output under this week’s deal with OPEC, Deputy Energy Minister Kirill Molodtsov said. Its daily oil production rose to an average of 11.21 mn bpd in November, a new post-Soviet era high. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  The UAE based Gulf Navigation Holding announced the initiation of studies for large expansion of its operations in the northern region of the UAE consisting of a set of comprehensive maritime activities. (Source: The Peninsula) Qatari bourse will introduce several other products and services as part of improving the country’s capital markets infrastructure, after the launch of Exchange Traded Funds, Qatar Stock Exchange CEO said. (Source: The Peninsula)  India and Qatar signed four agreements in the fields of visas, cyberspace and investments and concluded one memorandum of understanding (MoU) for greater collaboration and exchange in the field of national ports management. (Source: Business Standard)  Austria is looking to further bolster its ties with Qatar after witnessing a jump in Austria’s exports to Qatar in 2015, said Austria’s first Resident Ambassador to Qatar. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar National Bank revised its oil price to average USD 60 per barrel in 2017, an upgrade of about USD 5 per barrel from its previous forecast, against the backdrop of OPEC’s Vienna decision to cut oil production. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar First Bank has been recognized as the ‘Best Shari’ah Compliant Commercial Bank’ in Qatar, at the 11th Islamic Business & Finance Awards. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Shell said it will integrate four local SMEs into its supply chain as it stressed that partnerships with local businesses foster entrepreneurship at all levels. The four SMEs were scheduled to sign contracts with Qatar Shell and Qatar Development Bank on 4th Dec16. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) has bought the St. Regis in San Francisco for USD 175mn, and will continue to operate under the Marriott brand. (Source: Hotelier Middle East)  Ooredoo announced that the Qatar Data Centre has achieved the ISO 20000-1:2011 Certification for Excellence in Information Technology Service Management Systems. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: The Peninsula)   Dubai-based DP World, is teaming up with Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, Canada’s second-largest pension fund manager to create a CAD 5bn (USD 3.8bn) venture that will invest in ports around the world, including regions such as Asia and Latin America. (Source: Gulf Times) The UAE economy is witnessing strong economic progress with the GDP expected to accelerate to 3.4% in 2017 from an estimated 3% in 2016 despite challenging regional and global economic conditions, according to the Ministry of Economy’s annual report. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank announced that it has repaid in full a USD 500mn Islamic bond or sukuk from its own resources. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE's hospitality sector reported an occupancy dip of 2.9% during October-16 to 75.6%, while average daily rates (ADR) dropped 9.6% YoY to AED 668.05, the lowest for an October-16 since 2005, according to the latest data from industry consultants STR. (Source: Arabian Business)  Private equity firm Gulf Capital plans to sell some of its investments towards the end of 2017 and early 2018 as market sentiment and the regional economy improve, its chief executive reported. (Source: Arabian Business)  Sharjah’s economy (A3 stable) has slowed, with nominal GDP growth expected to remain around 4% into 2017 compared to 6% on average in 2010-2015, said Moody’s Investors Service. (Source: Saudi Gazette) Qatar’s foreign reserves stood at USD 35.6bn, in September-16, not varying significantly MoM basis, and can provide more than 7 months of import cover, according to NBK’s chartbook on Qatari economy.  GCC NEWS  The Saudi Arabian economy is forecast to contract by 0.2% in real terms in 2017 as a result of the continued austerity drive, compared to 0.8% growth in 2016, the latest BMI Research paper showed. 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 5 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0694 USD/QAR 3.6414 113.5100 EUR/QAR 3.8941 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2759 JPY/QAR 0.0321 USD/CHF 1.0111 GBP/QAR 4.6461 USD/CAD 1.3292 CHF/QAR 3.6014 AUD/USD 0.7457 CAD/QAR 2.7395 NZD/USD 0.7141 AUD/QAR 2.7154 USD/INR 67.7250 INR/QAR 0.0538 USD/TRY 3.5210 TRY/QAR 1.0342 USD/ZAR 13.8021 ZAR/QAR 0.2638 USD/BRL 3.4769 BRL/QAR 1.0473 FX Commentary USD fell on Friday, with dollar index down 0.3% as lower than expected payrolls data and fall in average hourly wages raised skepticism over the hawkishness of Fed in 2017. A fall in unemployment rate to a nine month low, helped limit the downside. CAD rose to a six-week high against US counterpart on back of upbeat domestic jobs report. The gains were further supported by higher oil prices. GBP was bolstered by a positive UK Construction PMI which encouraged greater confidence in the robustness of the British economy. The statement by BoE's chief economist- Andrew Haldane reiterating his belief in the bank’s recent shift to a neutral stance over haste rate hike, capped gains. JPY rose after the release of GDP report which showed that Japanese economy expanded for second straight month in October. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 0.43 0.46 0.65 0.95 1.64 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.08) QAIBOR 1.07 1.16 1.37 1.69 2.14 SAIBOR NA 1.32 1.83 2.06 2.45 EIBOR 0.46 0.59 0.76 1.35 2.14 BMIBOR 0.48 0.65 1.00 1.58 2.00 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.06 1.38 2.00 LIBOR EURIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.64% 4.0% 2.43% 2.0% 0.0% 2.88% 2.88% 1.96% 2.31% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.95% 1.54% 0.62% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 3.03% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 30.0 9.3 Turkey 306.3 38.6 UK 36.5 4.5 Brazil 316.5 (36.4) Germany 22.7 4.5 Egypt 451.5 (36.8) France 38.5 1.3 Abu Dhabi 67.4 (32.6) Italy 166.4 37.5 Bahrain 328.1 (29.0) Greece 940.2 30.4 Dubai 157.1 (62.9) Russia 219.0 (36.5) Qatar 89.4 (23.1) Japan 33.0 (3.5) Saudi Arabia 125.4 (40.1) 2.0% 2.61% 1.30% 2.00% 1.79% 1.90% 1.64% 1.0% 2.20% 2.16% 2.48% 1.04% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 9:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Services Nov 52.5 52.7 9:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Composite Nov - 53.7 11:45 Italy Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI Nov 51.6 51 11:45 Italy Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI Nov 51.6 51.1 11:50 France Markit France Services PMI Nov F 52.6 52.6 11:50 France Markit France Composite PMI Nov F 52.3 52.3 11:55 Germany Markit Germany Services PMI Nov F 55 55 11:55 Germany Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Nov F 54.9 54.9 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Services PMI Nov F 54.1 54.1 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Nov F 54.1 54.1 12:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Nov 54 54.5 12:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Nov 54.6 54.8 13:00 Eurozone Retail Sales MoM Oct 0.80% (0.20%) 17:45 US Markit US Services PMI Nov F 54.8 54.7 17:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Nov F - 54.9 18:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Nov 55.5 54.8 3:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings YoY Oct 0.20% 0.00% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 5 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 8.8 0.0 8.8 1.9 5.8 5.1 3.5 0.0 4.3 6.5 1.9 6.4 3.5 6.4 7.8 5.5 6.0 5.4 0.0 9.2 4.3 5.3 5.8 7.2 3.3 4.6 4.6 3.5 2.2 6.8 4.0 4.4 5.1 5.3 2.3 3.0 8.3 2.7 7.1 3.3 2.2 7.9 4.6 3.2 2.3 3.0 2.4 5.5 5.6 5.2 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.1 0.9 2.2 1.0 2.1 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.5 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.8 3.9 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.4 3.0 2.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.9 2.5 0.6 2.2 1.6 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 17.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.7 12.1 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.0 11.7 10.4 25.9 10.9 7.2 20.7 20.3 12.1 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 13.2 5.7 11.1 13.2 34.0 19.7 18.9 14.7 24.9 10.6 10.8 17.8 16.9 9.6 19.1 4.0 12.0 11.9 12.3 23.0 14.6 12.2 17.9 13.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.7 14.6 13.0 11.4 12.4 13.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 34.1 19.7 34.0 55.0 17.4 34.1 14.3 9.6 99.8 61.4 150.5 9.4 77.9 64.0 164.3 25.2 141.5 9.4 10.9 62.3 76.2 13.2 30.8 108.9 15.4 213.1 57.3 43.9 83.5 19.7 19.0 84.1 45.0 48.5 31.1 15.0 12.5 18.9 93.3 9.1 49.8 22.8 88.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the inf ormation provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4