United Arab Emirates: Monthly Monetary Survey - February 2017

Transcription

1. UAE Monthly Monetary Survey February 2017
2. Monetary Developments (*) M1 increased by 1.9%, from AED 479.9 billion at the end of January 2017 to AED 488.9 billion at the end of February 2017. This increase was due to a 0.4% increase in Currency in Circulation outside Banks (13.2% of M1) and a 2.1% increase in Monetary Deposits (86.8% of M1). At the end of February 2017, M2 increased by 1.1%, rising from AED 1230.2 billion at the end of January to AED 1244.2billion. M2 mainly rose due to the increased M1 and AED 5 billion or 0.7% increase in Quasi- Monetary Deposits (60.7% of M2). M3 also increased by 1.9%, from AED 1415.6 billion at the end of January 2017 to AED 1442.5 billion at the end of February 2017. M3 increased because of a combined increase in M1 & M2 and increase by AED 12.9 billion or 7% in Government Deposits (13.7% of M3). In summary, during February 2017, M1, M2 and M3 increased by 1.9%, 1.1% and 1.9%, respectively. The Money Multiplier The money multiplier indicates by how much the money supply and the underlying components will grow following an increase of 1 billion Dirhams in the Monetary Base, defined as the sum of Currency issued (Currency in circulation outside banks and cash at banks), Total Banks' Reserves at the Central Bank and Certificates of Deposits held by Banks (see Table 3). During the month of February 2017, the Monetary Base expanded by 3.3%. The Monetary Base expanded due to a combined increase in; Currency Issued (23% of the Monetary Base) by 0.3%, Banks’ Required Reserves (35.3% of the Monetary Base) by 1.6%, Banks & OFC’s Excess Reserves (8.4% of the Monetary Base) by 17.2% and Certificates of Deposits purchased by Banks (33.3% of the Monetary Base) by 4.3%. From the end of January 2017 to the end of February 2017, the multipliers of M1, M2 and M3 decreased from 1.47 to 1.45, from 3.78 to 3.70 and from 4.35 to 4.29 respectively, reflecting a faster growth of the monetary base compared to the growth in the Monetary Aggregates. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ (*) Monetary aggregates are defined in a footnote to Table 1 Research & Statistics Department – Central Bank of the UAE (www.centralbank.ae) Page 1
3. Table 1 . UAE Monthly Monetary Survey (February 2017) (End of period, billions of Dirhams) Year on Year Change Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Feb. Mar Jun Sep Dec1 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 436.1 456.9 464.1 453.6 456.9 474.4 490.3 481 472.5 474.0 479.9 488.9 9.0 1.9% 3.1% Currency Issued 74.5 69.3 72.5 71 73.5 75.3 77.2 81.3 77.3 77.6 77.2 77.5 0.3 0.3% 2.9% Cash at Banks Currency in Circulation Outside Banks 15.5 13.1 13.7 13.8 15.1 13.9 15.4 16.9 15.5 15.3 13.0 13.0 0.0 0.0% -6.5% 59.0 56.2 58.8 57.2 58.4 61.4 61.8 64.4 61.8 62.3 64.2 64.5 0.3 0.4% 5.0% 377.1 400.7 405.3 396.4 398.5 413 428.5 416.6 410.7 411.7 415.7 424.4 8.7 2.1% 2.8% 1125.4 1162.5 1174.2 1158.3 1186.8 1194.2 1218.4 1180.4 1200.2 1225.5 1230.2 1244.2 14.0 1.1% 4.2% 689.3 705.7 710.1 704.6 729.9 719.8 728.1 699.4 727.7 751.5 750.3 755.3 5.0 0.7% 4.9% 1314.5 1346.0 1337.6 1322.0 1342.8 1351.8 1373.8 1364.8 1368.6 1411.4 1415.6 1442.5 26.9 1.9% 6.7% 189.1 183.5 163.4 163.7 156 157.6 155.4 184.4 168.4 185.9 185.4 198.3 12.9 7.0% 25.8% Money Supply M1(*) Jan Feb1 Change in February 2017 In billions % of Change Dirhams of which: Monetary Deposits(**) Money Supply M2(*) of which: Quasi-Monetary Deposits(***) Money Supply M3(*) of which: Government Deposits 1 Estimates, subject to revision (*) M 1 = Currency in Circulation Outside Banks (Currency Issued - Cash at banks) + Monetary Deposits M2 = M1 + Quasi-Monetary Deposits M3 = M2 + Government Deposits (**) Monetary Deposits: All short term deposits on which bank customer can withdraw without prior notice (***) Quasi-Monetary Deposits: Resident Time and Savings Deposits in Dirham + Resident Deposits in Foreign Currencies Research & Statistics Department – Central Bank of the UAE (www.centralbank.ae) Page 2
4. Table 2 . Contribution to Aggregate Money Supply February1 2017 In Billions of Dirhams % Change 9.0 1.9% 14.9 3.1% 13.2% 0.3 0.4% 0.1% 2.2 3.5% 86.8% 8.7 2.1% 1.8% 12.7 3.1% 14.0 1.1% 18.7 1.5% 5.2% 0.3 0.4% 0.0% 2.2 3.5% 424.4 34.1% 8.7 2.1% 0.7% 12.7 3.1% 750.3 755.3 60.7% 5.0 0.7% 0.4% 3.8 0.5% 1411.4 1415.6 1442.5 26.9 1.9% 31.1 2.2% 61.8 62.3 64.2 64.5 4.5% 0.3 0.4% 0.0% 2.2 3.5% 416.6 410.7 411.7 415.7 424.4 29.4% 8.7 2.1% 0.6% 12.7 3.1% 728.1 699.4 727.7 751.5 750.3 755.3 52.4% 5.0 0.7% 0.3% 3.8 0.5% 155.4 184.4 168.4 185.9 185.4 198.3 13.7% 12.9 7.0% 0.96% 12.4 6.7% Jan-17 481 472.5 474 479.9 488.9 61.8 64.4 61.8 62.3 64.2 64.5 398.5 428.5 416.6 410.7 411.7 415.7 424.4 1125.4 1186.8 1218.4 1180.4 1200.2 1225.5 1230.2 1244.2 59.0 58.4 61.8 64.4 61.8 62.3 64.2 64.5 Monetary Deposits 377.1 398.5 428.5 416.6 410.7 411.7 415.7 Quasi-Monetary Deposits 689.3 729.9 728.1 699.4 727.7 751.5 1314.5 1342.8 1373.8 1364.8 1368.6 59.0 58.4 61.8 64.4 Monetary Deposits 377.1 398.5 428.5 Quasi-Monetary Deposits 689.3 729.9 Government Deposits 189.1 156 Currency in Circulation Outside Banks Monetary Deposits Money Supply M2 Currency in Circulation Outside Banks Money Supply M3 Currency in Circulation Outside Banks Dec-15 Mar-16 436.1 456.9 490.3 59.0 58.4 377.1 Jun-16 Year to Date % Change Dec1-16 Dec-14 Contributi on to Aggregate Growth* In Billions of Dirhams Sep-16 Money Supply M1 1 In billions of Dirhams MoM Shares of the Aggregates Estimates, subject to revision * Contribution to aggregate growth = Shares of the sub-aggregate times percent change in each sub-aggregate, such that contribution of sub-aggregates equals percent change in the aggregate Research & Statistics Department – Central Bank of the UAE (www.centralbank.ae) Page 3
5. Table 3 . Money Multiplier in the UAE (End of period, billions of Dirhams) Dec 2014 2015 March 2016 June 2016 Sep 2016 Nov 2016 Dec1 2016 Jan 2017 Feb1 Change in February 2017 2017 In billions of Dirhams % Change 309.2 365.2 329.5 328.6 325.5 313.6 338.1 325.4 336.3 10.9 3.3% 74.5 73.5 77.2 81.3 77.3 78.0 77.6 77.2 77.5 0.3 0.3% 104.1 111.9 113.5 118.5 118.2 116.3 116.9 116.8 118.7 1.9 1.6% Banks & OFCs' Excess Reserves 31.1 40 23.4 19.7 26.2 23.2 35.4 24.1 28.2 4.1 17.2% Certificates of Deposit purchased by Banks 99.5 139.8 115.4 109.1 103.8 96.1 108.2 107.3 111.9 4.6 4.3% 436.1 456.9 490.3 481 472.5 472.6 474.0 479.9 488.9 9.0 1.9% 1.41 1.25 1.49 1.46 1.45 1.51 1.40 1.47 1.45 1125.4 1186.8 1218.4 1180.4 1200.2 1212.9 1225.5 1230.2 1244.2 14.0 1.1% 3.64 3.25 3.7 3.59 3.69 3.87 3.62 3.78 3.70 1314.5 1342.8 1373.8 1364.8 1368.6 1385.8 1411.4 1415.6 1442.5 26.9 1.9% 4.25 3.68 4.17 4.15 4.20 4.42 4.17 4.35 4.29 Monetary Base Currency Issued* Banks’ Required Reserves Money Supply (M1) Money Multiplier of M1 (M1/Monetary Base) Money Supply (M2) Money Multiplier of M2 (M2/Monetary Base) Money Supply (M3) Money Multiplier of M3 (M3/Monetary Base) 1 Dec Estimates, subject to revision * Currency Issued = Currency in circulation outside Banks + Cash at Banks Research & Statistics Department – Central Bank of the UAE (www.centralbank.ae) Page 4
6. Money Supply M1 increased by 1 .9%, driven by a 2.1% increase in Monetary Deposits. (bn AED, % month-on-month) Monetary Deposits (left axis) Money Supply M2 increased by 1.1%, due to an increase in M1 & 0.7% increase in Quasi-Monetary Deposits. (bn AED, % month-on-month) % Change in M1 (right axis) 500.0 Quasi- Monetary Deposits (left axis) 4.0% 400.0 3.0% 2.0% 300.0 1.0% 200.0 0.0% -1.0% 100.0 -2.0% 0.0 Jan-14 -3.0% Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Money Supply M3 increased by 1.9%, due to increased M1 & M2 and 7% increase in Government Deposits. (bn AED, % month-on-month) Government Deposits (left axis) 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Jul-14 4.0% 200.0 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Monetary Base expanded by 3.3% during February 2017. (bn AED, % month-on-month) Change in Monetary Base (right axis) Currency Issued Banks’ Required Reserves Banks & OFCs' Excess Reserves Certificates of Deposit purchased by Banks % Change in M3 (right axis) 250.0 150 3.0% 2.0% 150.0 15.0% 100 1.0% 100.0 0.0% -1.0% 50.0 0.0 Jan-14 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 Jan-14 % Change in M2 (right axis) 5.0% 50 -5.0% -2.0% -3.0% Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 0 Jan-14 -15.0% Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Source: RSD - CBUAE Research & Statistics Department – Central Bank of the UAE (www.centralbank.ae) Page 5