Nigeria: Purchasing Managers' Index Report For June 2017

Transcription

1. Central Bank of Nigeria Purchasing Managers ’ Index (PMI) Survey Report Statistics Department June 2017
2. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX (PMI) JUNE 2017 REPORT 1.0 Introduction The June 2017 PMI was conducted by the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria, during the period June 12 - 16, 2017. The respondents were purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 13 locations in Nigeria (2 states in each geopolitical zone and the Federal Capital Territory, Fig. 1). A total of 1,796 responses were received from a sample of 1,950 respondents, representing a response rate of 92.1 per cent. The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than the data they provided. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. Fig. 1: Map of Nigeria showing the survey locations 1.1 Data and Method of Presentation The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives. Survey responses indicate whether there is change or no change in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the previous month. For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percentage of positive responses plus one-half of the percentage of those reporting no change. The composite PMI is then computed as the weighted average of five diffusion indices for manufacturing sector: production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory, with assigned weights of 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The composite PMI for non-manufacturing sector is computed from four diffusion indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and raw materials inventory, with equal weights of 25% each. 1
3. A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing /non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change and below 50 points indicates that it is generally declining. The sub-sectors reporting growth are listed in the order of highest to lowest growth. For the sub-sectors reporting contraction/decline, they are listed in the order of the highest to the lowest decline. 2.0 Manufacturing PMI Report New orders, employment and raw materials inventories growing at a faster rate; Production level growing at a slower rate; and supplier delivery time growing from contraction Fig. 3: Trend of Manufacturing PMI 2 June '17 Apr '17 Feb '17 Dec '16 Oct '16 Aug '16 Jun '16 Apr '16 Feb '16 Dec '15 Oct '15 Aug '15 Jun '15 Apr '15 Feb '15 Dec '14 Oct '14 Aug '14 Index Points The Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.9 index points in June 2017, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month (Fig. 3 and Table 1). Twelve of the 16 subsectors reported growth in the review month in the following order: computer & electronic products; paper products; plastics & rubber products; primary metal; transportation equipment; petroleum & coal products; 55.0 appliances & components; Overall Manufacturing PMI 50 point textile, apparel, leather & 53.0 footwear; furniture & related 51.0 products; electrical equipment; food, beverage & 49.0 tobacco products and 47.0 fabricated metal products. The remaining 4 sub-sectors 45.0 declined in the order: nonmetallic mineral products; 43.0 cement; chemical & 41.0 pharmaceutical products and printing & related support activities.
4. 2 .1 Production Level June '17 Apr '17 Feb '17 Oct '16 Dec '16 Jun '16 Fig. 4: Trend of production Aug '16 Apr '16 Feb '16 Oct '15 Dec '15 Jun '15 Aug '15 Apr '15 Feb '15 Oct '14 Dec '14 Aug '14 The production level index for manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in June 2017. The index at 58.2 points indicated an increase in production but at a slower rate, when compared to the level attained in the previous month. Fourteen manufacturing sub-sectors recorded increase in production level during the review month in the following order: computer & electronic products; plastics & rubber 65.0 products; transportation equipment; Production Level 50 point primary metal; appliances & 60.0 components; paper products; textile, 55.0 apparel, leather & footwear; electrical equipment; petroleum & coal products; 50.0 fabricated metal products; furniture & 45.0 related products; food, beverage & tobacco products; cement and printing 40.0 & related support activities. The 35.0 nonmetallic mineral products and chemical & pharmaceutical products 30.0 sub-sectors recorded decline in production (Table 2). 2.2 New Orders At 51.0 points, new orders index grew for the third consecutive month. Eight sub-sectors reported growth in new orders in the following order: paper products; primary metal; plastics & rubber products; computer & electronic products; petroleum & coal products; furniture & related products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear and food, beverage & tobacco products. The fabricated metal products and 60.0 New Orders 50 point transportation equipment sub-sectors remained unchanged, while the 55.0 nonmetallic mineral products; cement; 50.0 chemical & pharmaceutical products; appliances & components; printing & 45.0 related support activities and electrical equipment sub-sectors recorded declines 40.0 (Table 3). 35.0 Fig. 5: Trend of new order index 3 June '17 Apr '17 Dec '16 Feb '17 Oct '16 Jun '16 Aug '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Dec '15 Oct '15 Aug '15 Jun '15 Feb '15 Apr '15 Dec '14 Oct '14 Aug '14 30.0
5. 2 .3 Supplier Delivery Time Apr '17 June '17 Feb '17 Dec '16 Oct '16 Aug '16 Jun '16 Apr '16 Feb '16 Dec '15 Oct '15 Aug '15 Jun '15 Apr '15 Feb '15 Dec '14 Oct '14 Aug '14 The supplier delivery time index for the manufacturing sector at 50.3 points in June 2017, rose from its contractionary level in the previous month. Seven sub-sectors recorded improvement in suppliers’ delivery time in the following order: computer & electronic products; electrical equipment; furniture & related products; cement; primary metal; food, beverage & tobacco products and chemical & 60.0 Supplier Delivery Time 50 point pharmaceutical products. The nonmetallic mineral products; 55.0 textile, apparel, leather & footwear 50.0 and transportation equipment remained the same, while the 45.0 remaining 6 sub-sectors recorded delayed supplier delivery time in 40.0 the following order: plastics & rubber products; appliances & 35.0 components; petroleum & coal products; fabricated metal 30.0 products; printing & related support activities and paper Fig. 6: Trend of supplier delivery time index products (Table 4). 2.4 Employment Level Fig 7: Trend of manufacturing employment 4 June '17 Feb '17 Apr '17 Dec '16 Oct '16 Jun '16 Aug '16 Apr '16 Feb '16 Dec '15 Oct '15 Aug '15 Jun '15 Apr '15 Feb '15 Dec '14 Oct '14 Aug '14 Employment level index in June 2017 stood at 51.1 points, indicating growth in employment level for the second consecutive month. Of the 16 sub-sectors, 10 recorded growth in employment in the following order: computer & electronic products; plastics & rubber products; transportation equipment; appliances & components; paper products; petroleum & coal products; primary metal; fabricated metal products; textile, 54.0 Employment Level 50 point apparel, leather & footwear and 52.0 food, beverage & tobacco 50.0 products. The remaining 6 sub 48.0 sectors recorded contraction in 46.0 employment in the following order: 44.0 cement; nonmetallic mineral products; electrical equipment; 42.0 furniture & related products; 40.0 printing & related support activities 38.0 and chemical & pharmaceutical 36.0 products (Table 5).
6. 2 .5 Raw Materials Inventory June '17 Apr '17 Feb '17 Dec '16 Oct '16 Aug '16 Jun '16 Apr '16 Feb '16 Oct '15 Dec '15 Aug '15 Jun '15 Apr '15 Feb '15 Dec '14 Oct '14 Aug '14 At 52.3 points, the raw materials inventory index grew for the third consecutive month, and at a faster rate compared to its level in May 2017. Twelve of the 16 subsectors recorded growth in raw materials inventories in the order: appliances & components; petroleum & coal products; plastics & rubber products; computer & electronic products; transportation equipment; primary metal; paper products; food, beverage & 60.0 Raw Materials Inventory 50 point tobacco products; textile, apparel, 55.0 leather & footwear; electrical equipment; fabricated metal 50.0 products and chemical & pharmaceutical products. The 45.0 cement; furniture & related 40.0 products; printing & related support activities and nonmetallic 35.0 mineral products recorded lower 30.0 inventories in the review month (Table 6). Fig. 8: Trend of raw material 3.0 Non-Manufacturing PMI Report Business activity, new orders, employment and inventory growing at a faster rate in June 2017 June '17 Inventories May '17 Level of employment Level of new orders Business Activity Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 49 50 51 52 53 Fig. 9: Manufacturing PMI at a glance 5 54 55 56 57 58 59
7. June '17 Feb '17 Apr '17 Oct '16 Dec '16 Jun '16 Aug '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Dec '15 Oct '15 Aug '15 Jun '15 Apr '15 Feb '15 Dec '14 Aug '14 Oct '14 Inde x Points The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector grew to 54.2 in June 2017 indicating growth in Non-manufacturing PMI for the second consecutive month. Of the 18 non-manufacturing subsectors, 15 recorded growth in the following order: utilities; water supply, sewage & waste management; finance & insurance; educational services; repair, maintenance/ washing of motor vehicles…; agriculture; health care & social assistance; information & 60.0 Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 50 point communication; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; real 55.0 estate, rental & leasing; wholesale trade; professional, scientific, & 50.0 technical services; transportation & warehousing; accommodation & food services and arts, 45.0 entertainment & recreation. The public administration, management 40.0 of companies and construction sub sectors recorded contraction in the Non –manufacturing PMI in June Fig. 10: Trend of non-manufacturing PMI 2017 (Fig. 10, Table 7). 3.1 Business Activity 6 June '17 Apr '17 Feb '17 Dec '16 Oct '16 Aug '16 Jun '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Dec '15 Oct '15 Aug '15 Jun '15 Feb '15 Apr '15 Dec '14 Oct '14 Aug '14 The business activity index rose to 57.0 points in June 2017 for the third consecutive month. The index grew at a faster rate, when compared to its level in the previous month. Thirteen sub-sectors recorded growth in the following order: utilities; finance & insurance; information & communication; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles…; health care & social assistance; electricity, gas, steam & air 70.0 conditioning supply; water supply, Business Activity 50 point 65.0 sewage & waste management; agriculture; educational services; 60.0 real estate, rental & leasing; 55.0 wholesale trade; accommodation 50.0 & food services and transportation & warehousing. The arts, 45.0 entertainment & recreation and 40.0 public administration sub-sectors remained unchanged, while the 35.0 remaining 3 sub-sectors recorded 30.0 growth in the order: management of companies; construction; professional, scientific, & technical Fig. 11: Trend of business activities index services (Table 8).
8. 3 .2 New Orders Apr '17 June '17 Feb '17 Oct '16 Dec '16 Aug '16 Jun '16 Apr '16 Feb '16 Oct '15 Dec '15 Aug '15 Jun '15 Feb '15 Apr '15 Dec '14 Oct '14 Aug '14 New orders index at 54.6 points grew in June 2017 for the third consecutive month. Of the 18 subsectors, 15 subsectors reported growth in new orders in the following order: utilities; water supply, sewage & waste management; finance & insurance; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles…; information & communication; real estate, rental & leasing; management of companies; electricity, gas, steam & air 70.0 New orders 50 point conditioning supply; educational 65.0 services; wholesale trade; health 60.0 care & social assistance; 55.0 professional, scientific, & technical 50.0 services; accommodation & food services; arts, entertainment & 45.0 recreation and transportation & 40.0 warehousing. The remaining 3 sub- 35.0 sectors recorded decline in the 30.0 order: public administration; construction; agriculture (Table 9). Fig. 12: Trend of new order 3.3 Employment Level Aug '14 Oct '14 Dec '14 Feb '15 Apr '15 Jun '15 Aug '15 Oct '15 Dec '15 Feb '16 Apr '16 Jun '16 Aug '16 Oct '16 Dec '16 Feb '17 Apr '17 June '17 The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 53.4 points, indicating growth in employment for the second consecutive month. Sixteen sub-sectors recorded growth in employment level in the following order: utilities; finance & insurance; water supply, sewage & waste management; professional, scientific, & technical services; transportation & warehousing; arts, entertainment & recreation; 60.0 Employment Level 50 point construction; repair, maintenance/ 55.0 washing of motor vehicles…; health care & social assistance; electricity, 50.0 gas, steam & air conditioning supply; public administration; educational 45.0 services; real estate, rental & leasing; 40.0 wholesale trade; agriculture and information & communication. The 35.0 accommodation & food services and 30.0 management of companies recorded decline in employment in June 2017 (Table 10). Fig. 13: Trend of non-manufacturing employment 7
9. 3 .4 Non-manufacturing Inventory Fig. 14: Trend of non-manufacturing inventory index 8 Apr '17 June '17 Feb '17 Dec '16 Oct '16 Aug '16 Jun '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Dec '15 Oct '15 Jun '15 Aug '15 Apr '15 Feb '15 Oct '14 Dec '14 Aug '14 At 51.8 points, non-manufacturing inventory index grew for the second consecutive month indicating growth in inventories in the review period. Eight sub-sectors recorded higher inventories in June in the following order: water supply, sewage & waste management; agriculture; educational services; finance & insurance; health care & social assistance; utilities; professional, scientific, & technical services and wholesale trade. The accommodation & food services; construction; transportation & 60.0 warehousing and public Inventory 50 point 58.0 administration subsectors remain 56.0 unchanged, while the management 54.0 of companies; electricity, gas, 52.0 steam & air conditioning supply; 50.0 repair, maintenance/ washing of 48.0 motor vehicles…; arts, 46.0 entertainment & recreation; real 44.0 estate, rental & leasing and 42.0 information & communication 40.0 subsectors recorded lower inventory (Table 11).
10. APPENDICES Table 1 : Manufacturing at a Glance Table 2: Production at a Glance 9
11. Table 3 : New Orders at a Glance Table 4: Supplier Delivery Time at a Glance 10
12. Table 5 : Employment Level at a Glance Table 6: Raw Materials Inventory at a Glance 11
13. Table 7 : Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Table 8: Business activity at a Glance 12
14. Table 9 : New Orders at a Glance Table 10: Employment at a Glance 13
15. Table 11 : Inventory at a Glance Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 51.3 49.7 54.0 51.9 52.2 49.8 50.2 53.0 48.9 52.0 49.4 49.5 47.8 48.4 50.7 49.2 51.2 51.2 47.2 45.5 45.9 43.7 45.8 41.9 44.1 42.1 42.5 44.1 46.0 52.0 48.2 44.6 47.7 51.1 52.5 52.9 55.2 49.7 57.4 55.1 55.1 51.2 50.4 57.4 52.1 56.9 53.6 51.5 49.7 51.0 54.9 52.0 55.4 55.4 49.3 45.0 46.6 42.7 47.9 40.2 43.0 40.5 40.9 42.3 46.9 57.6 51.3 45.2 50.8 58.5 58.7 58.2 53.0 51.2 57.6 55.3 56.9 51.1 49.3 54.7 48.9 54.1 49.7 50.8 46.2 50.1 52.1 49.3 52.9 52.7 46.2 43.0 43.0 41.8 42.7 37.0 42.4 37.5 38.7 40.3 45.1 51.8 47.9 44.0 45.6 50.1 50.5 51 46.4 49.9 46.4 46.2 45.1 49.7 51.3 43.8 47.8 42.7 44.6 42.0 43.5 43.1 46.8 42.7 47.3 45.2 48.4 52.8 50.6 52.2 50.2 55.6 51.7 57.4 55.6 57.7 53.2 47.9 48.5 48.7 51.3 47.5 49.9 50.3 46.9 45.9 49.3 46.8 47.2 46.8 51.1 50.0 46.4 48.9 48.0 48.5 48.4 44.8 47.1 48.4 45.5 47.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 42.0 45.7 42.2 43.8 40.4 41.2 42.2 40.6 48.6 45.3 41.7 43.6 46.6 50.7 51.1 52.9 52.2 55.7 52.4 51.7 48.4 49.3 56.4 47.1 53.9 48.0 53.3 52.6 52.4 49.0 53.1 52.2 52.7 45.8 44.7 47.1 43.0 43.9 39.4 41.4 40.0 40.9 42.9 46.1 51.6 46.3 44.8 49.1 50.6 50.8 52.3 14 43.6 40.8 45.4 45.9 46.0 44.6 47.7 50.1 38.1 43.0 36.9 40.0 40.1 37.6 40.3 39.8 38.7 38.0 38.3 39.2 37.8 36.3 38.7 35.3 38.5 31.2 26.3 37.3 39.6 37.2 33.1 38.4 38.5 37.7 37.6 32.6 50.6 48.6 49.3 49.7 53.3 53.6 48.7 54.0 50.1 50.2 51.6 49.2 47.9 49.0 47.5 49.1 46.2 48.6 52.6 53.0 56.4 63.9 59.6 61.4 60.8 64.1 66.5 65.2 65.7 70.4 67.9 69.9 65.0 65.1 61.3 62.7 54.2 52.7 52.9 56.7 60.9 56.3 55.6 60.9 56.4 54.4 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 52.8 53.8 52.8 56.5 56.7 57.0 60.9 67.8 68.4 70.0 64.2 69.8 74.0 71.8 71.2 73.2 71.4 70.9 68.3 69.2 68.4 66.6 53.3 50.8 55.1 57.1 56.0 51.4 52.5 58.0 48.7 53.0 50.5 53.0 51.7 50.2 51.0 48.3 51.0 54.5 49.9 42.8 41.6 43.6 42.7 39.0 41.6 39.9 42.8 43.5 48.1 52.7 48.4 47.7 50.1 45.1 46.1 46.2 46.4 45.4 46.9 50.5 50.0 47.5 48.8 50.7 44.5 48.3 44.9 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.5 45.6 46.0 45.1 44.2 38.5 41.2 42.6 37.0 40.2 41.9 38.3 37.1 39.2 45.2 45.3 43.6 43.2 43.6 40 42.3 43.9 Stock of Finished Goods Backlog of Work Quantity of Purchases Input Prices Output Prices New Export Orders Raw Materials Inventory Employment Level Supplier Delivery Time New Orders Production Level COMPOSITE PMI Month HISTORICAL DATA 47.2 48.6 49.8 51.7 47.6 51.1 45.5 53.7 46.5 48.7 45.6 49.3 45.3 46.1 43.2 46.8 46.9 46.4 46.3 44.4 43.8 41.6 40.1 36.0 39.0 38.3 42.4 39.9 42.0 48.5 46.9 43.9 45.1 46.4 51.8 49.1
16. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 55.0 58.9 54.7 57.3 59.6 53.8 50.6 54.0 48.6 53.7 51.7 50.1 50.0 50.7 50.1 51.9 49.6 53.4 46.9 44.3 45.4 44.3 44.3 42.3 43.2 43.7 41.0 43.4 42.8 47.1 49.4 44.5 47.1 49.5 52.7 54.2 58.9 60.6 57.1 59.6 62.5 56.2 48.8 54.2 49.7 58.2 52.9 51.5 50.4 52.3 52.1 54.2 52.9 55.9 46.2 43.7 46.3 44.2 44.3 40.2 42.8 43.6 39.9 43.0 43.0 48.2 50.6 45.4 49.8 53.3 56.2 57 55.9 59.8 57.5 59.4 63.6 56.0 50.4 54.7 51.1 56.8 53.1 50.3 51.4 52.4 52.3 54.1 51.6 56.4 46.4 42.0 44.7 42.2 41.3 39.6 42.3 42.0 40.0 42.7 42.3 46.9 49.4 44.9 46.4 50.5 53.2 54.6 50.2 58.3 49.9 53.9 57.9 51.4 51.2 52.5 45.6 49.1 49.7 46.4 48.6 48.0 47.0 49.3 45.6 50.0 47.0 44.5 43.9 43.3 44.6 42.5 41.9 41.4 40.3 41.5 40.2 43.8 45.6 42.6 44.0 45.5 50.2 53.4 55.2 57.0 54.3 56.4 54.6 51.5 51.9 54.5 48.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 49.5 50.1 49.1 50.1 48.5 51.5 47.9 47.1 46.5 47.6 46.9 47.1 45.8 47.7 43.9 46.4 45.5 49.5 52.0 44.9 48.0 48.6 51.4 51.8 15 54.0 56.1 52.8 53.3 57.3 54.5 48.8 54.1 49.8 51.5 51.3 48.5 50.3 50.7 48.7 49.9 51.8 54.7 57.3 53.6 58.5 62.2 62.9 60.7 60.4 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 64.0 65.6 65.4 62.1 63.1 62.7 58.6 46.2 47.0 46.2 46.4 49.6 45.6 43.2 46.0 46.5 46.6 44.1 44.4 43.8 43.0 44.5 43.9 42.8 47.0 44.3 39.6 43.8 43.1 38.1 39.6 38.6 39.4 39.6 40.9 42.4 41.5 43.6 42.9 42.7 41.6 45.3 40.5 44.0 46.1 40.7 40.8 45.2 43.6 41.1 43.0 39.9 41.1 37.2 36.9 39.1 39.8 42.9 40.3 37.7 41.9 36.2 37.5 34.3 31.8 33.2 33.2 30.0 32.9 28.6 32.8 30.8 33.8 32.5 33.4 33.1 29.2 31.6 30.3 47.3 46.4 45.2 44.9 47.5 46.5 44.3 44.6 44.2 44.5 39.1 40.4 39.2 38.3 41.4 42.4 39.0 42.7 39.0 36.6 35.0 33.1 35.0 34.7 32.7 34.2 30.2 33.8 34.0 35.5 36.1 34.5 34.5 33.2 34.1 33.5 Inventories (sentiment) Imports New Exports Orders Backlog of Work Average Input Price Inventory Employmen t Level New orders Business Activity COMPOSITE PMI Month NON-MANUFACTURING PMI DATA SERIES 47.8 48.1 47.6 43.8 48.1 43.8 47.0 46.1 40.2 43.0 44.3 42.7 44.0 44.0 45.9 45.2 41.8 47.2 41.6 43.6 41.1 39.8 40.3 38.5 38.0 39.4 37.9 38.7 41.1 41.6 45.5 38.7 40.6 41.1 43.6 42.7
17. 16