Turkey: Financial Services Survey & Financial Services Confidence Index - December 2016

Transcription

1. FINANCIAL SERVICES SURVEY & FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFIDENCE INDEX (December 2016) Statistics Department Real Sector Data Division December 23, 2016
2. Statistics Department FINANCIAL SERVICES SURVEY FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFIDENCE INDEX (FSCI) (December 2016) Graph 1. FSCI Index 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 2013-01 2013-02 2013-03 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 2013-07 2013-08 2013-09 2013-10 2013-11 2013-12 2014-01 2014-02 2014-03 2014-04 2014-05 2014-06 2014-07 2014-08 2014-09 2014-10 2014-11 2014-12 2015-01 2015-02 2015-03 2015-04 2015-05 2015-06 2015-07 2015-08 2015-09 2015-10 2015-11 2015-12 2016-01 2016-02 2016-03 2016-04 2016-05 2016-06 2016-07 2016-08 2016-09 2016-10 2016-11 2016-12 100 FSCI=100: A stable outlook in the financial services sector FSCI>100: An optimistic outlook in the financial services sector FSCI<100: A pessimistic outlook in the financial services sector Remained Unchanged Balance 2016-10 2016-12 2016-07 2016-04 2016-01 2015-10 2015-07 2015-04 2015-01 2014-10 2014-07 Increased Decreased 2014-04 2014-01 Remained Unchanged Balance 2013-10 2016-10 2016-12 2016-07 2016-04 2016-01 2015-10 % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2013-07 Improved Deteriorated 2015-07 2015-04 2015-01 2014-10 Graph 4. Demand For Services for the Next Three Months % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Increase Decrease 2016-10 2016-12 2016-07 2016-04 2016-01 2015-10 2015-07 2015-04 2015-01 2014-10 2014-07 2014-04 2014-01 2013-10 2013-07 0 2013-01 10 2013-04 2014-07 2014-04 2014-01 2013-10 2013-07 2013-04 2013-01 % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2013-04 Graph 3. Demand For Services for the Last Three Months 2013-01 Graph 2. Business Situation for the Last Three Months Remain Unchanged Balance 2
3. Statistics Department Graph 5 . Employment for the Last Three Months Graph 6. Employment for the Next Three Months % % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Increased Decreased Remained Unchanged Balance Increase Decrease 2016-10 2016-12 2016-07 2016-04 2016-01 2015-10 2015-07 2015-04 2015-01 2014-10 2014-07 2014-04 2014-01 2013-10 2013-07 2013-04 0 2013-01 2016-10 2016-12 2016-07 2016-04 2016-01 2015-10 2015-07 2015-04 2015-01 2014-10 2014-07 2014-04 2014-01 2013-10 2013-07 2013-04 2013-01 10 Remain Unchanged Balance Table 1. FSS Developments in Aggregated Results (*) Periodicity Business Situation Monthly Demand For Services (Turnover) Monthly Employment Monthly Last Three Months Next Three Months (*) Short arrows indicate monthly changes, while long arrows indicate annual changes. Green coloured arrows represent increases and red coloured arrows represent decreases.     Financial Services Survey has been carried out as part of the "Joint Harmonized European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys" and published as part of the "Official Statistics Programme (OSP)" based on the Statistics Law of Turkey.     Financial Services Confidence Index is based on the responses given to the Financial Services Survey of the CBRT conducted with the institutions operating in the financial sector . Aggregated results and methodological information are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Financial Services Survey and Financial Services Confidence Index. In addition, time series data can be reached at “Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys”.       The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. For any views and suggestions: E-mail: fha@tcmb.gov.tr 3
4. Statistics Department FINANCIAL SERVICES SURVEY WEIGHTED AGGREGATED RESULTS (Balance Values) JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2015 86.0 80.6 60.6 75.0 76.9 60.5 70.5 69.6 64.9 52.0 70.3 41.1 2016 37.2 46.4 57.9 61.5 50.8 62.4 73.3 83.4 62.0 55.9 53.9 52.6 How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 3 months? 2015 93.4 81.9 56.0 54.0 67.8 83.6 82.3 83.1 67.9 67.4 67.4 48.7 2016 79.5 75.5 57.1 65.8 42.2 87.0 83.7 84.6 74.8 56.3 49.8 64.9 How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next 3 months? 2015 67.1 78.2 77.7 77.0 78.2 77.7 77.7 68.9 67.6 84.0 76.9 79.4 2016 81.8 82.9 82.8 78.6 82.9 81.0 60.8 63.9 65.5 73.4 71.6 55.8 2015 37.1 51.3 63.3 64.8 61.2 63.4 62.8 53.9 43.7 41.9 12.5 -7.2 2016 19.1 21.0 23.2 11.4 -1.9 10.6 -3.1 0.7 0.2 -3.3 -8.5 -7.1 2015 64.8 48.8 65.1 58.9 63.6 56.7 59.5 52.5 52.5 52.0 60.1 36.2 2016 57.1 60.4 58.9 60.0 53.2 22.2 11.9 8.7 2.8 7.2 6.3 32.0 2015 62.1 67.2 68.8 29.4 2016 91.1 78.6 85.2 16.9 2015 65.9 77.4 67.0 72.7 2016 65.0 72.4 44.3 48.1 2015 73.7 72.9 54.8 24.3 How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 3 months? How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 3 months? How has your operating income developed over the last 3 months? How do you expect your operating income to develop over the next 3 months? How have your operating expenses developed over the last 3 months? 2016 48.5 -5.8 15.4 14.6 How do you expect your operating expenses to develop over the next 3 months? 2015 51.9 65.8 49.2 78.1 2016 42.2 70.1 50.4 65.0 How has the profitability of your company developed over the last 3 months? 2015 48.8 -8.9 51.9 -4.9 2016 79.8 68.3 85.3 23.1 How do you expect the profitability of your company to develop over the next 3 months? 2015 45.6 75.4 63.1 71.0 2016 79.0 59.7 37.2 33.5 2015 36.1 -5.7 34.7 27.7 2016 62.9 30.4 52.5 32.5 How do you expect your capital expenditure to develop over the next 3 months? 2015 34.5 25.5 31.5 55.7 2016 41.1 34.2 40.4 40.0 How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? 2015 48.8 47.8 47.1 48.8 2016 46.8 39.1 48.3 35.1 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2015 12.1 10.1 8.3 11.9 2016 10.9 6.8 7.0 5.8 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2015 12.9 8.6 8.1 9.9 2016 11.0 7.0 6.9 6.0 How do you expect the competitive position on the domestic market to develop over the next 3 months? 2015 61.0 49.7 54.1 52.9 2016 51.0 42.5 43.3 38.2 How do you expect the competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU to develop over the next 3 months? 2015 25.8 22.3 20.3 22.5 2016 30.2 29.7 20.4 9.5 How do you expect the competitive 2015 position on foreign markets outside the EU to develop over the next 3 months? 2016 27.2 20.8 19.9 22.0 30.4 29.9 20.3 9.4 How has your capital expenditure developed over the last 3 months? 4