Central Bank of Nigeria: Purchasing Managers Index Report - November 2017

Transcription

1. Central Bank of Nigeria Purchasing Managers ’ Index (PMI) Survey Report Statistics Department November 2017
2. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX (PMI) NOVEMBER 2017 REPORT 1.0 Introduction The November 2017 PMI was conducted by the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria during the period November 13 - 17, 2017. The respondents were purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 15 locations in Nigeria (Fig. 1). The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than the data they provided. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. Sokoto Katsina Yobe Jigawa Zamfara Borno Kano Kebbi Kaduna Bauchi Gombe Niger Adamawa Nasarawa Oyo Osun Ogun Lagos Plateau FCT Kwara Taraba Kogi Ekiti Benue Ondo Edo Delta Cross Imo Abia River Akwa Ibom Fig. 1: Map of Nigeria with showing the survey locations 1.1 Data and Method of Presentation The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is based on survey responses indicating the changes in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the preceding month. For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percentage of responses with positive change plus half of the percentage of those reporting no change, except for supplier delivery time, which is computed as the percentage of responses with negative change plus half of the percentage of those reporting no change. The composite PMI for the manufacturing sector is computed as the weighted average of five diffusion indices: production level, level of new orders, suppliers’ delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory/work in progress, with 1
3. assigned weights of 25 %, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The composite PMI for the nonmanufacturing sector is computed from four diffusion indices: business activity, level of new orders, employment level and raw materials inventory, with equal weights of 25% each. A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change and below 50 points indicates that it is generally contracting. The subsectors reporting growth are listed in the order of highest to lowest growth, while those reporting contraction are listed in the order of the highest to the lowest contraction. 2.0 Manufacturing PMI Report November '17 October '17 Inventories Production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and inventories growing at a faster rate in November 2017 Employment level Supplier deliveries New orders Production level Overall Manufacturing PMI 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 Fig. 2: Manufacturing PMI at a glance The Manufacturing PMI in the month of November stood at 55.9 index points indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the eight consecutive months. (Fig. 3 and Table 1). Twelve of the 16 subsectors reported growth in the review month in the following order: petroleum & coal products; printing & related support activities; computer & electronic products; textile, apparel, leather and footwear; plastics & rubber products; 60.0 Overall Manufacturing PMI food, beverage & tobacco products; 50 point 58.0 55.9 nonmetallic mineral products; 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 Fig. 3: Trend of Manufacturing PMI 2 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 40.0 Nov '16 Index Points chemical & pharmaceutical products; furniture & related products; paper products; cement and primary metal. The electrical equipment sector remained unchanged, while the appliances & components; fabricated metal products and transportation equipment sectors contracted in the review month.
4. Nov '17 59.3 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 New Orders 50 point Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 54.3 Jan '17 At 54.3 points, the new orders index grew for the eighth consecutive month. Nine subsectors reported growth, 3 remained unchanged while 4 contracted in the review month (Fig. 5 and Table 3). 50 point Fig. 4: Trend of production Dec '16 2.2 New Orders Production Level Nov '16 At 59.3 points, the production level index for the manufacturing sector grew for the eighth consecutive month in November 2017. The index indicated an increase in production in the current month, when compared to its level in the preceding month. Ten of the 16 manufacturing subsectors recorded increase in production level, 4 remained unchanged, while the remaining 2 recorded declines in production during the review month (Fig. 4 and Table 2). 62.0 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 Nov '16 2.1 Production Level Fig. 5: Trend of new orders index Supplier Delivery Time 50 point Fig. 6: Trend of supplier delivery time index 3 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 56.0 Dec '16 The manufacturing supplier delivery time index stood at 56.0 points in November 2017, indicating faster supplier delivery time for the sixth consecutive month. Eleven subsectors recorded improved suppliers’ delivery time, 4 remained unchanged while 1 subsector recorded delayed delivery time (Fig. 6 and Table 4). 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 Nov '16 2.3 Supplier Delivery Time
5. Employment Level 50 point Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 53.7 Nov '16 The employment level index in November 2017 stood at 53.7 points, indicating growth in employment level for the seventh consecutive month. Of the 16 subsectors, 8 recorded growth, 3 remained unchanged while 5 subsectors reduced their employment level in the review month (Fig. 7 and Table 5). 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 Dec '16 2.4 Employment Level Fig 7: Trend of manufacturing Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 50 point 57.1 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Raw Materials Inventory Dec '16 The Manufacturing sector inventories index grew for the eight consecutive months in November 2017. At 57.1 points, the index grew at a faster rate when compared to its level in October 2017. Eleven of the 16 subsectors recorded growth, 3 remained unchanged while 2 subsectors recorded decline in raw material inventories (Fig. 8 and Table 6). 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 Nov '16 2.5 Raw material Inventories Fig. 8: Trend of raw material inventory index November '17 October '17 Inventories 3.0 Non-Manufacturing PMI Report Level of employment Business activity, new orders, employment and inventories growing at a faster rate in November 2017 Level of new orders Business Activity Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 Fig. 9: Non-Manufacturing PMI at a glance 4
6. Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 57.6 points in November 2017, indicating growth in the Non-manufacturing PMI for the seventh consecutive month. Fifteen of the 18 non-manufacturing subsectors recorded growth in the following order: agriculture; public administration; utilities; health care & social assistance; finance & insurance; educational services; water supply, sewage & waste management; transportation & warehousing; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles…; arts, entertainment & recreation; information & communication; wholesale 60.0 trade; real estate, rental & 58.0 Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 50 point leasing; accommodation & food 56.0 57.6 services and electricity, gas, 54.0 steam & air conditioning 52.0 supply. The management of 50.0 companies; Construction and 48.0 professional, scientific, & 46.0 technical services sub sectors 44.0 recorded contraction in the 42.0 review period (Fig. 10 and 40.0 Table 7). Fig. 10: Trend of Non-manufacturing PMI 60.0 Business Activity 58.0 50 point 59.4 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 Fig. 11: Trend of business activities index 5 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 40.0 Nov '16 At 59.4 points, the business activity index grew for the eighth consecutive month, indication growth in business activity in November 2017. The index grew at a faster rate, when compared to its level in the previous month. Fifteen subsectors recorded growth in business activity, while 3 declined in the review month (Table 8). Feb '17 3.1 Business Activity
7. Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 Nov '17 58.4 50 point May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Nov '16 New orders index at 58.4 points grew in November 2017 for the eight consecutive months. Of the 18 subsectors, 14 reported growth, 1 remained unchanged while 3 recorded declines (Table 9). New orders Dec '16 3.2 New Orders 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 Fig. 12: Trend of new orders index 50 point Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Jan '17 Feb '17 54.6 Dec '16 The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 54.6 points, indicating growth in employment for the seventh consecutive month. Thirteen subsectors recorded growth in the review month, 1 remained unchanged while 4 recorded declines (Table 10). Employment Level Nov '16 3.3 Employment Level 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 Fig. 13: Trend of non-manufacturing employment Fig. 14: Trend of non-manufacturing inventory index 6 58.0 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 50 point June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Inventory Dec '16 At 58.0 points, nonmanufacturing inventory index grew for the seventh consecutive month, indicating growth in inventories in the review period. Thirteen subsectors recorded higher inventories, 1 remained unchanged, while 4 subsectors recorded lower inventory in November, 2017 (Table 11). 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 Nov '16 3.4 Non-manufacturing Inventory
8. APPENDICES Table 1 : Manufacturing at a Glance Series Index* October Series Index* November Change 55.0 58.4 52.8 55.5 53.1 56.5 35.5 55.4 62.7 49.6 50.8 50.0 55.9 59.3 54.3 56.0 53.7 57.1 37.6 54.0 64.3 48.1 50.0 48.8 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 2.1 -1.4 1.6 -1.5 -0.8 -1.2 Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products 50.0 46.7 57.7 30.0 53.1 50.6 55.3 54.4 58.0 59.8 43.3 60.2 43.8 52.5 56.1 60.8 50.0 45.2 57.4 53.8 57.1 52.7 65.0 58.4 Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment 53.6 52.6 57.6 48.8 50.7 61.0 60.6 47.5 Index Composite PMI \1 Production level New orders Supplier delivery time Employment level Raw materials/WIP Inventory New Export Orders Output Prices Input Prices Quantity of Purchases Outstanding Business/Backlog of Work Stock of Finished Goods Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining No Change Declining Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster Slower Slower Faster Faster From Expansion From No Change 8 9 8 6 7 8 33 23 41 8 1 1 -6.2 5.8 -1.6 30.8 -3.1 -5.4 2.1 -0.6 -0.9 -7.1 21.7 -1.8 Declining Growing Growing Growing No Change Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing From No Change From Contraction Slower From Contraction From Expansion From Expansion Faster Slower Slower Slower From Contraction Slower 1 1 5 1 1 1 14 4 4 7 1 4 -2.9 8.4 3.0 -1.3 Growing Growing Growing Declining Slower Faster Faster Faster 2 5 9 2 Direction Manufacturing Sub-Sectors \1 The composite PMI is a weighted average of the following diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, employment level and inventories. The weights assigned to these variables are 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20% respectively. *The series index is a diffusion index defined as a weighted percentage of high, same and low with 1.0, 0.5 and 0.0 as weights respectively. ** Number of month moving in current direction Table 2: Production at a Glance Index PRODUCTION PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index October 58.4 Series Index November 59.3 Change 0.9 100.0 50.0 56.9 50.0 50.0 60.7 53.6 59.2 60.0 60.0 50.0 68.0 57.1 56.7 62.2 50.0 50.0 50.0 57.6 66.7 75.0 41.2 64.4 56.4 58.8 63.6 50.0 60.0 36.4 67.8 66.0 50.0 -50.0 0.0 0.7 16.7 25.0 -19.5 10.8 -2.8 -1.2 3.6 0.0 -8.0 -20.7 11.1 3.8 0.0 7 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 9 No Change No Change Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing Declining Growing Growing No Change From Expansion Flat Faster From No Change From No Change From Expansion Faster Slower Slower Faster Flat Slower From Expansion Faster Faster Flat 1 2 5 1 1 1 14 9 5 3 2 3 1 8 9 2
9. Table 3 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index October 52.8 Series Index November 54.3 Change 1.5 0.0 33.3 61.1 0.0 50.0 45.2 55.0 48.0 60.0 63.3 33.3 56.0 71.4 50.0 53.7 37.5 50.0 75.0 59.1 50.0 37.5 39.7 54.2 52.1 55.9 45.5 50.0 54.0 63.6 57.8 62.8 33.3 50.0 41.7 -2.0 50.0 -12.5 -5.5 -0.8 4.1 -4.1 -17.8 16.7 -2.0 -7.8 7.8 9.1 -4.2 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster No ChangeFrom Contraction Growing From Contraction Growing Slower No ChangeFrom Contraction Declining From No Change Declining Faster Growing Slower Growing From Contraction Growing Slower Declining From Expansion No ChangeFrom Contraction Growing Slower Growing Slower Growing From No Change Growing Faster Declining Faster Trend (Months) 8 1 1 5 1 1 5 14 1 3 1 1 3 2 1 2 5 Table 4: Supplier Delivery Time at a Glance Index SUPPLIER DELIVERY TIME PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index October 55.5 Series Index November 56.0 Change 0.5 100.0 83.3 55.6 50.0 37.5 54.9 57.1 60.2 60.0 63.3 50.0 52.0 42.9 52.2 51.2 50.0 25.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 54.4 57.6 61.7 58.8 54.5 100.0 52.0 59.1 54.4 53.2 66.7 -75.0 -33.3 -5.6 0.0 12.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 -1.2 -8.8 50.0 0.0 16.2 2.2 2.0 16.7 8 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 6 Declining No Change No Change No Change No Change Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing From Expansion From Expansion From Expansion Flat From Contraction Slower Faster Faster Slower Slower From No Change Flat From Contraction Faster Faster From No Change 1 1 1 3 1 5 3 3 5 4 1 3 1 3 3 1
10. Table 5 : Employment Level at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index October 53.1 Series Index November 53.7 Change 0.6 0.0 33.3 55.6 50.0 75.0 44.0 55.1 50.0 45.0 53.3 50.0 62.0 42.9 52.2 61.0 50.0 25.0 25.0 51.5 66.7 37.5 50.0 53.4 50.0 52.9 50.0 75.0 64.0 31.8 62.2 59.6 33.3 25.0 -8.3 -4.1 16.7 -37.5 6.0 -1.7 0.0 7.9 -3.3 25.0 2.0 -11.1 10.0 -1.4 -16.7 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 7 Declining Declining Growing Growing Declining No Change Growing No Change Growing No Change Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Slower Faster Slower From No Change From Expansion From Contraction Slower Flat From Contraction From Expansion From No Change Faster Faster Faster Slower From No Change 3 2 5 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 3 2 4 2 1 Trend (Months) 8 12 2 6 1 2 2 14 1 4 1 1 4 1 5 2 2 Table 6: Raw Materials Inventory at a Glance Index RAW MATERIALS INVENTORY PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index October 56.5 Series Index November 57.1 Change 0.6 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster 100.0 50.0 56.9 0.0 50.0 47.6 58.0 62.2 70.0 56.7 33.3 62.0 28.6 51.1 61.0 75.0 75.0 50.0 62.1 83.3 50.0 48.5 56.8 47.9 61.8 50.0 75.0 66.0 72.7 61.1 54.3 83.3 -25.0 0.0 5.2 83.3 0.0 0.9 -1.2 -14.3 -8.2 -6.7 41.7 4.0 44.1 10.0 -6.7 8.3 Growing No Change Growing Growing No Change Declining Growing Declining Growing No Change Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Slower Flat Faster From Contraction Flat Slower Slower From Expansion Slower From Expansion From Contraction Faster From Contraction Faster Slower Faster 9
11. Table 7 : Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \1 Business Activity Level of new orders/customers/incoming business Level of employment Inventory Average price of Inputs (volume weighted) Level of outstanding business/ Backlog of work New Exports orders Imports Inventory (sentiments) Series Index October Series Index November Change 55.3 57.5 55.7 54.4 53.4 56.4 41.4 29.6 35.4 38.9 57.6 59.4 58.4 54.6 58.0 55.7 43.6 28.8 33.3 40.6 2.3 1.9 2.7 0.2 4.6 -0.7 2.2 -0.8 -2.1 1.7 54.5 64.6 53.7 35.1 50.4 53.6 60.1 59.9 55.9 54.2 48.5 58.3 56.1 49.6 55.9 62.5 55.7 55.8 52.9 78.3 56.3 41.7 60.8 51.0 62.0 67.9 57.3 25.0 45.4 75.0 54.7 57.7 57.4 73.8 59.4 54.5 -1.6 13.7 2.6 6.6 10.4 -2.6 1.9 8.0 1.4 -29.2 -3.1 16.7 -1.4 8.1 1.5 11.3 3.7 -1.3 Rate of Change Trend (Months) Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster Slower Slower Faster Faster Slower 7 8 8 7 7 25 41 41 41 41 Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Slower Faster Faster Slower Faster Slower Faster Faster Faster From Expansion Faster Faster Slower From Contraction Faster Faster Faster Slower 7 18 4 30 12 9 9 7 8 1 3 5 3 1 9 8 9 6 Direction Non-manufacturing sub-sectors Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade \1 The composite PMI is a simple average of the following diffusion (series) indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventories Table 8: Business activity at a Glance Index BUSINESS ACTIVITY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index October 57.5 60.4 74.4 47.1 35.7 51.6 53.6 58.2 62.8 54.7 83.3 48.5 83.3 51.9 46.6 59.4 75.0 54.5 59.1 Series Index November 59.4 52.3 83.3 56.8 40.5 61.1 58.3 60.0 65.3 58.3 0.0 44.4 90.0 60.3 65.4 63.0 80.0 66.7 55.7 10 Change 1.9 -8.1 8.9 9.7 4.8 9.5 4.7 1.8 2.5 3.6 -83.3 -4.1 6.7 8.4 18.8 3.6 5.0 12.2 -3.4 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing Faster 8 Growing Slower 7 Growing Faster 18 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Slower 2 Growing Faster 3 Growing Faster 9 Growing Faster 8 Growing Faster 9 Growing Faster 8 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Faster 2 Growing Faster 2 Growing Faster 3 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 8 Growing Faster 8 Growing Faster 3 Growing Slower 7
12. Table 9 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index October 55.7 49.3 67.1 52.9 38.1 46.8 50.0 64.5 58.5 54.7 16.7 51.5 50.0 64.8 51.7 54.7 68.8 50.0 57.7 Series Index November 58.4 53.1 81.7 50.0 38.1 62.5 54.2 63.3 69.4 54.2 0.0 42.6 70.0 58.6 57.7 57.4 80.0 70.8 54.8 Series Index October 54.4 53.0 67.1 55.9 35.7 56.5 53.6 60.9 56.4 51.6 66.7 43.9 66.7 53.7 56.9 51.6 43.8 59.1 53.6 Series Index November 54.6 53.1 70.0 56.8 47.6 56.9 33.3 63.3 63.3 52.1 100.0 50.0 60.0 41.4 42.3 59.3 70.0 54.2 51.3 Change 2.7 3.8 14.6 -2.9 0.0 15.7 4.2 -1.2 10.9 -0.5 -16.7 -8.9 20.0 -6.2 6.0 2.7 11.2 20.8 -2.9 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing Faster 8 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 5 No Change From Expansion 1 Declining Faster 30 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing From No Change 1 Growing Slower 9 Growing Faster 6 Growing Slower 8 Declining Faster 2 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing From No Change 1 Growing Slower 2 Growing Faster 6 Growing Faster 9 Growing Faster 8 Growing From No Change 1 Growing Slower 6 Change 0.2 0.1 2.9 0.9 11.9 0.4 -20.3 2.4 6.9 0.5 33.3 6.1 -6.7 -12.3 -14.6 7.7 26.2 -4.9 -2.3 Rate of Trend Change (Months) Faster 7 Faster 4 Faster 7 Faster 7 Slower 3 Faster 11 From Expansion 1 Faster 6 Faster 6 Faster 7 Faster 2 From Contraction 1 Slower 2 From Expansion 1 From Expansion 1 Faster 9 From Contraction 1 Slower 3 Slower 6 Table 10: Employment at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade 11 Direction Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing
13. Table 11 : Inventory at a Glance Index INVENTORY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index October 53.4 55.2 50.0 58.8 31.0 46.8 57.1 56.6 62.0 62.5 50.0 50.0 33.3 53.8 43.1 57.8 62.5 59.1 52.6 Series Index November 58.0 51.5 75.0 61.4 40.5 62.5 58.3 59.1 73.5 60.4 0.0 44.4 80.0 56.9 61.5 50.0 65.0 45.8 55.7 Change 4.6 -3.7 25.0 2.6 9.5 15.7 1.2 2.5 11.5 -2.1 -50.0 -5.6 46.7 3.1 18.4 -7.8 2.5 -13.3 3.1 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing Faster 7 Growing Slower 4 Growing From No Change 1 Growing Faster 2 Declining Slower 5 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 2 Growing Faster 6 Growing Faster 7 Growing Slower 5 Declining From No Change 1 Declining From No Change 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 2 Growing From Contraction 1 No Change From Expansion 1 Growing Faster 3 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing Faster 4 Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 July '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 51.3 49.7 54.0 51.9 52.2 49.8 50.2 53.0 48.9 52.0 49.4 49.5 47.8 48.4 50.7 49.2 51.2 51.2 47.2 45.5 45.9 43.7 45.8 41.9 44.1 42.1 42.5 44.1 46.0 52.0 48.2 44.6 47.7 51.1 52.5 52.9 54.1 53.6 55.3 55.0 55.9 55.2 49.7 57.4 55.1 55.1 51.2 50.4 57.4 52.1 56.9 53.6 51.5 49.7 51.0 54.9 52.0 55.4 55.4 49.3 45.0 46.6 42.7 47.9 40.2 43.0 40.5 40.9 42.3 46.9 57.6 51.3 45.2 50.8 58.5 58.7 58.2 59.3 57.4 58.8 58.4 59.3 53.0 51.2 57.6 55.3 56.9 51.1 49.3 54.7 48.9 54.1 49.7 50.8 46.2 50.1 52.1 49.3 52.9 52.7 46.2 43.0 43.0 41.8 42.7 37.0 42.4 37.5 38.7 40.3 45.1 51.8 47.9 44.0 45.6 50.1 50.5 51.0 52.7 52.3 53.5 52.8 54.3 46.4 49.9 46.4 46.2 45.1 49.7 51.3 43.8 47.8 42.7 44.6 42.0 43.5 43.1 46.8 42.7 47.3 45.2 48.4 52.8 50.6 52.2 50.2 55.6 51.7 57.4 55.6 57.7 53.2 47.9 48.5 48.7 51.3 47.5 49.9 50.3 51.3 52.0 55.4 55.5 56.0 46.9 45.9 49.3 46.8 47.2 46.8 51.1 50.0 46.4 48.9 48.0 48.5 48.4 44.8 47.1 48.4 45.5 47.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 42.0 45.7 42.2 43.8 40.4 41.2 42.2 40.6 48.6 45.3 41.7 43.6 46.6 50.7 51.1 51.8 51.5 52.8 53.1 53.7 52.9 52.2 55.7 52.4 51.7 48.4 49.3 56.4 47.1 53.9 48.0 53.3 52.6 52.4 49.0 53.1 52.2 52.7 45.8 44.7 47.1 43.0 43.9 39.4 41.4 40.0 40.9 42.9 46.1 51.6 46.3 44.8 49.1 50.6 50.8 52.3 53.6 54.9 56.4 56.5 57.1 12 43.6 40.8 45.4 45.9 46.0 44.6 47.7 50.1 38.1 43.0 36.9 40.0 40.1 37.6 40.3 39.8 38.7 38.0 38.3 39.2 37.8 36.3 38.7 35.3 38.5 31.2 26.3 37.3 39.6 37.2 33.1 38.4 38.5 37.7 37.6 32.6 37.5 36.7 30.4 35.5 37.6 50.6 48.6 49.3 49.7 53.3 53.6 48.7 54.0 50.1 50.2 51.6 49.2 47.9 49.0 47.5 49.1 46.2 48.6 52.6 53.0 56.4 63.9 59.6 61.4 60.8 64.1 66.5 65.2 65.7 70.4 67.9 69.9 65.0 65.1 61.3 62.7 60.4 58.8 58.2 55.4 54.0 54.2 52.7 52.9 56.7 60.9 56.3 55.6 60.9 56.4 54.4 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 52.8 53.8 52.8 56.5 56.7 57.0 60.9 67.8 68.4 70.0 64.2 69.8 74.0 71.8 71.2 73.2 71.4 70.9 68.3 69.2 68.4 66.6 64.1 64.9 65.7 62.7 64.3 53.3 50.8 55.1 57.1 56.0 51.4 52.5 58.0 48.7 53.0 50.5 53.0 51.7 50.2 51.0 48.3 51.0 54.5 49.9 42.8 41.6 43.6 42.7 39.0 41.6 39.9 42.8 43.5 48.1 52.7 48.4 47.7 50.1 45.1 46.1 46.2 48.0 49.0 49.4 49.6 48.1 46.4 45.4 46.9 50.5 50.0 47.5 48.8 50.7 44.5 48.3 44.9 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.5 45.6 46.0 45.1 44.2 38.5 41.2 42.6 37.0 40.2 41.9 38.3 37.1 39.2 45.2 45.3 43.6 43.2 43.6 40.0 42.3 43.9 42.1 47.9 51.9 50.8 50.0 Stock of Finished Goods Backlog of Work Quantity of Purchases Input Prices Output Prices New Export Orders Raw Materials Inventory Employment Level Supplier Delivery Time New Orders Production Level COMPOSITE PMI Month Table 12: Manufacturing PMI Data Series 47.2 48.6 49.8 51.7 47.6 51.1 45.5 53.7 46.5 48.7 45.6 49.3 45.3 46.1 43.2 46.8 46.9 46.4 46.3 44.4 43.8 41.6 40.1 36.0 39.0 38.3 42.4 39.9 42.0 48.5 46.9 43.9 45.1 46.4 51.8 49.1 48.5 51.6 50.4 50.0 48.8
14. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 July '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 55.0 58.9 54.7 57.3 59.6 53.8 50.6 54.0 48.6 53.7 51.7 50.1 50.0 50.7 50.1 51.9 49.6 53.4 46.9 44.3 45.4 44.3 44.3 42.3 43.2 43.7 41.0 43.4 42.8 47.1 49.4 44.5 47.1 49.5 52.7 54.2 54.4 54.1 54.9 55.3 57.6 58.9 60.6 57.1 59.6 62.5 56.2 48.8 54.2 49.7 58.2 52.9 51.5 50.4 52.3 52.1 54.2 52.9 55.9 46.2 43.7 46.3 44.2 44.3 40.2 42.8 43.6 39.9 43.0 43.0 48.2 50.6 45.4 49.8 53.3 56.2 57.0 56.8 56.1 56.8 57.5 59.4 55.9 59.8 57.5 59.4 63.6 56.0 50.4 54.7 51.1 56.8 53.1 50.3 51.4 52.4 52.3 54.1 51.6 56.4 46.4 42.0 44.7 42.2 41.3 39.6 42.3 42.0 40.0 42.7 42.3 46.9 49.4 44.9 46.4 50.5 53.2 54.6 55.1 53.5 55.4 55.7 58.4 50.2 58.3 49.9 53.9 57.9 51.4 51.2 52.5 45.6 49.1 49.7 46.4 48.6 48.0 47.0 49.3 45.6 50.0 47.0 44.5 43.9 43.3 44.6 42.5 41.9 41.4 40.3 41.5 40.2 43.8 45.6 42.6 44.0 45.5 50.2 53.4 54.0 54.4 54.7 54.4 54.6 55.2 57.0 54.3 56.4 54.6 51.5 51.9 54.5 48.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 49.5 50.1 49.1 50.1 48.5 51.5 47.9 47.1 46.5 47.6 46.9 47.1 45.8 47.7 43.9 46.4 45.5 49.5 52.0 44.9 48.0 48.6 51.4 51.8 51.9 52.3 52.9 53.4 58.0 13 54.0 56.1 52.8 53.3 57.3 54.5 48.8 54.1 49.8 51.5 51.3 48.5 50.3 50.7 48.7 49.9 51.8 54.7 57.3 53.6 58.5 62.2 62.9 60.7 60.4 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 64.0 65.6 65.4 62.1 63.1 62.7 58.6 58.1 54.5 56.9 56.4 55.7 46.2 47.0 46.2 46.4 49.6 45.6 43.2 46.0 46.5 46.6 44.1 44.4 43.8 43.0 44.5 43.9 42.8 47.0 44.3 39.6 43.8 43.1 38.1 39.6 38.6 39.4 39.6 40.9 42.4 41.5 43.6 42.9 42.7 41.6 45.3 40.5 42.9 42.8 42.2 41.4 43.6 44.0 46.1 40.7 40.8 45.2 43.6 41.1 43.0 39.9 41.1 37.2 36.9 39.1 39.8 42.9 40.3 37.7 41.9 36.2 37.5 34.3 31.8 33.2 33.2 30.0 32.9 28.6 32.8 30.8 33.8 32.5 33.4 33.1 29.2 31.6 30.3 32.0 34.5 31.2 29.6 28.8 47.3 46.4 45.2 44.9 47.5 46.5 44.3 44.6 44.2 44.5 39.1 40.4 39.2 38.3 41.4 42.4 39.0 42.7 39.0 36.6 35.0 33.1 35.0 34.7 32.7 34.2 30.2 33.8 34.0 35.5 36.1 34.5 34.5 33.2 34.1 33.5 36.8 34.8 35.9 35.4 33.3 Inventories (sentiment) Imports New Exports Orders Backlog of Work Average Input Price Inventory Employmen t Level New orders Business Activity COMPOSITE PMI Month Table 13: Non-Manufacturing PMI Data Series 47.8 48.1 47.6 43.8 48.1 43.8 47.0 46.1 40.2 43.0 44.3 42.7 44.0 44.0 45.9 45.2 41.8 47.2 41.6 43.6 41.1 39.8 40.3 38.5 38.0 39.4 37.9 38.7 41.1 41.6 45.5 38.7 40.6 41.1 43.6 42.7 41.5 42.0 44.2 38.9 40.6