MENA Market Report - 26 October

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1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 26, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets closed the session mostly on a negative note as five out of the eight indexes closed in red while three ended in green. Among the regional peers, Saudi Arabia continues to remain the outperformer as it appreciated by 1.5% for the day. The index has gained 4.1% in the past three sessions as investors have turned positive on the back of record bond sale, which has raised hopes for further raising debt to support the burgeoning fiscal deficit. Kuwait and Egypt were the other two indexes that closed in green as they were up by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. Kuwait extended the gains to 1.3% on the back of buying activity post the third quarter earnings. Egypt witnessed buying interest after two subdued trading sessions as investors have turned slightly cautious about the growth prospects and government's ability to tackle the commodity crisis. UAE markets closed on a negative note, which has dragged both indexes lower for the week. Dubai was down by 0.7% and Abu Dhabi by 0.6% for the day as trading activity was dominated by banking sector stocks, which have either announced earnings or expected to do so within the week. Bahrain and Oman also closed lower by 0.4% and 0.2% for the day, in line with the sentiments seen in broader regional markets. Qatar remained unchanged for the day, however the index remains under pressure during the week. International Markets: US markets closed on a negative note as Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P were all down by 0.3%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. European markets closed on a mixed note as FTSE was up by 0.5%, while DAX and CAC were down by 0.04% and 0.3% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened mostly on a negative note as Hang Seng and Shanghai were down by 0.7% and 0.4% respectively, while Nikkei was flat. Headlines (WW) US Aug home prices rise 5.1% from year ago; consumer confidence slips in Oct (GCC) Gulf FDIs reach USD 431 billion in 2015 (WW) Alphabet Cutting Jobs in Google Fibre Retrenchment (GCC) Regional companies ready to expand despite economic dip (WW) Consumer Companies Raise Doubts on Economy as US Stocks Slide (SA) Saudi Arabia enjoys financial strength despite current challenges (WW) London House Prices Forecast to Plunge as Brexit Chokes Market (WW) IMF urges African states to cut deficits as growth grinds lower (AE) Government capable of fulfilling commitments despite challenges (WW) German business climate hits two-and-a-half year high in October (AE) UAE, Luxembourg forge closer economic ties (WW) Japan government raises view on output in gradual economic recovery (AE) Gulf banks feel the pinch of economic slowdown (WW) Australia’s Inflation Accelerates, Easing Pressure for Rate Cuts (AE) Business confidence in UAE, rest of GCC hold up despite uncertainty (CMD) Gold Holds Near Three-Week High as India Buys Ahead of Festival (AE) UAE joins the club of top 10 improvers globally in ease of doing business (CMD) Oil Prices Plunge After API Reports Significant Build To US Crude Stocks (EG) Egypt has no confirmation yet on whether Saudi oil aid will resume in Nov (FX) Dollar Near Highest Since March as Fed Rate-Increase Wagers Rise (EG) Egypt's GASC gets offers from seven suppliers at wheat tender (FX) Sterling fall "undoubtedly" on agenda at BoE rate meeting (OM) Oman plans to borrow USD 10 billion from overseas markets (FI) Bond Market Shows Traders Aren’t Ready for Evans’s Three Hikes (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) (AE) Dubai ranks 12th global best city MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,336.76 -0.7% -0.1% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,264.44 -0.6% -0.7% -4.0% 5.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ -4.7% -1.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 5,882.44 1.5% 4.1% 4.6% -14.9% ˄ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,389.01 Egypt (EGX30) 8,261.14 0.9% 1.3% -0.2% -4.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ 0.4% -0.2% 4.8% 17.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 10,404.19 -0.0% -0.3% -0.3% -0.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ 1,143.47 -0.4% -0.7% -0.6% -6.0% ˄ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,522.86 -0.2% -0.7% -3.6% 2.2% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 419 254 272 112 92 97 79,506 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 80 66 74 34 36 41 115,401 Saudi (SASEIDX) 203 182 218 829 785 987 365,981 Kuwait (KWSE) 178 62 86 102 29 31 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 171 198 189 276 91 98 24,955 Qatar (DSM) 3 7 6 38 76 69 131,238 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 3 2 2 2 1 1 17,637 Oman (MSM30) 9 17 18 6 8 9 16,463 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 26, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 10.6 11.5 11.4 10.7 9.2 8.1 386.2 300 8 239.3 188.3 178.1 4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 27% 8% 17.9% 6.6% 6% Current 489.3 13.3 12 Previous 600 18% 6.0% 5.0% 5.1% 9% 3.9% 4% 3.6% 2.5% 5.9% -1.0% -9% 2% 2.2% 0% 0.0% 0.0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -6.0% -14.9% -18% 0% -0.2% -4.0% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 26, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) MASHREQBANK PSC 63.00 -3.00% 1 83 DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.15 -2.54% 13,051 15,204 20,226 ARAMEX PJSC 3.75 -2.34% 606 2,300 4,145 1,936 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 1.32 -2.22% 11,648 15,550 15,485 15,872 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.00 -1.96% 2,355 2,378 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) 689 AXA GREEN CRESCENT INSURANCE CO 0.72 -8.86% 69 52 4 10 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 0.90 -5.26% 66 61 8.70% 36,128 17,342 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.75 -3.85% 10 8 2.67% 334 1,646 FIRST GULF BANK PJSC 10.55 -3.21% 2,873 30,813 0.51 2.00% 444 224 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 6.08 -1.94% 38 230 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AMANA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 7.75 9.93% 8,663 64,104 HALWANI BROTHERS CO JSC 50.75 -3.33% 67 3,461 SAUDI TRANSPORT AND INVESTMENT 46.00 8.75% 1,300 57,399 SAUDI COMPANY FOR HARDWARE 62.75 -1.95% 111 7,010 BANK ALJAZIRA JSC 11.40 6.54% 7,726 85,375 MOUWASAT MEDICAL SERVICES CO 119.50 -1.44% 25 2,961 NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANK SJSC 38.40 4.63% 1,462 54,892 AL YAMAMAH STEEL INDUSTRIES CO 23.95 -1.44% 778 18,764 ABDULMOHSEN AL HOKAIR GROUP 27.60 4.55% 1,265 34,161 KINGDOM HOLDING CO 10.55 -1.40% 147 1,564 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) 31.50 8.62% 1,309 40 ALRAI MEDIA GROUP CO KSCP 138.00 -6.76% 477 68 HITS TELECOM HOLDING CO KSCP 37.50 7.14% 7,339 266 FUTURE KID ENTERTAINMENT 98.00 -5.77% 1 0 INDEPENDENT PETROLEUM GROUP 395.00 6.76% 20 8 KGL LOGISTICS COMPANY KPSC 72.00 -2.70% 280 20 MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS 410.00 6.49% 14,870 5,911 EFFECT REAL ESTATE CO KSCC 38.00 -2.56% 68 3 COAST INVESTMENT & DEVELOPMENT 41.50 6.41% 4,702 189 ENERGY HOUSE HOLDING COMPANY 43.00 -2.27% 112 5 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) ATLAS FOR LAND RECLAMATION 6.79 9.52% 177 1,148 TRANS OCEANS TOURS SAE 0.04 -20.00% 35 2 ADVANCED PHARMA PACKAGING 1.88 9.30% 204 367 DELTA INSURANCE CO SAE 6.25 -7.41% 4 25 MEDICAL PACKAGING CO SAE 0.71 9.23% 1,800 1,224 KAHIRA PHARMA AND CHEMICAL 15.80 -7.28% 1 17 EGYPTIAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES SAE 3.36 8.04% 1,719 5,561 AL OROUBA SECURITIES BROKERAGE 0.57 -6.56% 18 11 ARAB REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO 0.54 8.00% 4,810 2,501 UNIVERSAL CO 7.22 -5.00% 17 123 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 19.85 4.42% 6 107 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 56.20 -2.60% 35 1,987 DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 22.39 2.66% 5 111 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 22.00 -2.22% 1 21 AHLI BANK QSC 40.05 1.39% 0 2 MANNAI CORPORATION QSC 78.20 -1.76% 0 6 QATAR INSURANCE CO SAQ 87.10 1.04% 52 4,533 QATAR FIRST BANK LLC 10.50 -1.59% 409 4,332 QATAR NATIONAL BANK SAQ 162.40 0.43% 201 32,513 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QSC 17.38 -1.47% 14 239 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DUBAI INSURANCE CO PSC 2.70 5.88% 100 263 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.53 3.90% 681 356 NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.89 2.72% 10,845 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.47 1.29% SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.03 0.98% Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.95 14.46% 774 ABU DHABI SHIP BUILDING PJSC 2.70 10.20% MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.50 NATIONAL BANK OF RAS AL KHAIMAH 5.00 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers GULF NORTH AFRICA HOLDING CO Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 26, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 68,196 85.25 1.5% 11.1% 2,598 59,079 91.00 59.50 16 1.6 6.5% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 46,291 19.55 0.8% 21.4% 1,005 5,347 20.20 14.90 19 3.9 4.1% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 37,455 162.40 0.4% 11.4% 201 8,950 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.5% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 31,332 58.75 1.7% -13.9% 1,084 16,987 69.75 51.00 14 2.0 6.8% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 23,832 55.00 1.9% 5.8% 1,967 28,849 62.75 44.70 12 1.8 2.7% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 20,479 38.40 4.6% -24.7% 1,462 14,973 54.25 32.00 8 1.3 4.0% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 19,943 17.95 -0.3% 14.0% 1,158 5,542 21.80 12.40 48 1.2 3.9% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,449 105.00 -0.1% -5.5% 90 2,603 124.90 88.00 16 2.0 4.8% 9 DP World Ltd AE 15,148 18.25 -0.3% -10.1% 94 469 20.80 16.05 15 1.8 1.6% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 14,870 60.00 0.0% 8.1% 1,420 22,719 68.75 40.80 0 6.0 0.0% 11 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 13,353 6.85 -0.7% 20.4% 4,689 8,745 7.46 4.22 11 1.2 2.2% 12 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 12,926 10.55 -3.2% -16.6% 2,873 8,253 13.50 9.90 8 1.4 9.5% 13 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 12,255 16.82 -0.2% 5.8% 642 2,964 20.24 12.10 26 1.5 3.0% 14 Almarai Co SJSC SA 12,106 56.75 1.3% -3.3% 189 2,868 66.00 40.88 22 3.5 1.5% 15 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,105 8.00 0.0% 8.1% 101 220 9.00 6.25 6 0.8 5.0% 16 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 12,057 8.50 -1.4% 6.8% 886 2,050 10.35 6.86 9 1.0 5.3% 17 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 11,653 37.40 1.1% 12.7% 2,193 21,879 43.20 25.70 116 1.6 0.0% 18 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 10,978 590.00 3.5% -20.7% 9,499 18,515 799.36 550.00 12 1.0 4.7% 19 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,425 10.55 -1.4% -32.8% 147 414 21.20 9.80 77 1.4 4.7% 20 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 10,079 18.90 3.8% -19.1% 541 2,728 23.55 15.90 7 0.9 4.8% 21 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,415 6.18 0.5% -6.2% 1,090 1,835 7.74 5.20 8 1.1 7.3% 22 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,354 2.64 0.4% -4.3% 1,263 908 3.25 2.02 19 2.3 3.8% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,605 97.80 0.1% 30.4% 32 863 107.00 60.00 12 1.4 3.1% 24 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,307 480.00 2.1% -2.2% 7,327 11,618 545.45 395.45 13 1.4 3.2% 25 Emirates Integrated Telecomm AE 7,642 6.14 -0.3% 20.4% 1,364 2,281 6.99 4.89 15 3.6 7.0% 26 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 7,460 18.65 1.9% -24.6% 238 1,185 28.40 16.40 6 0.9 4.0% 27 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 7,400 9.25 1.6% -25.4% 1,698 4,189 13.15 8.55 7 0.7 7.6% 28 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,241 35.15 0.4% -6.5% 342 3,300 43.70 28.60 12 2.1 5.0% 29 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,105 5.28 -0.4% -6.4% 3,673 5,281 6.07 4.51 7 1.1 7.8% 30 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 7,095 47.30 1.7% 45.5% 179 2,253 50.50 23.80 13 1.7 4.2% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 492,554 4.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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