United Arab Emirates: Monetary Survey - May 2017

Transcription

1. UAE Monthly Monetary Survey May 2017
2. Monetary Developments (*) M1 decreased by 0.6%, from AED 507.2 billion at the end of April 2017 to AED 504.4 billion at the end of May 2017. This decrease was due to a 1.1% reduction in Monetary Deposits (86.7% of M1), which overshadowed a 3.1% increase in Currency in Circulation outside Banks (13.3% of M1). At the end of May 2017, M2 increased by 0.1%, rising from AED 1273.7 billion at the end of April to AED 1274.5 billion. M2 mainly rose due to an AED 3.6 billion or a 0.5% increase in Quasi- Monetary Deposits (60.4% of M2). M3 also increased by 0.6%, from AED 1478.3 billion at the end of April 2017 to AED 1487.6 billion at the end of May 2017. M3 increased because of a combined increase in M2 and an AED 8.5 billion or 4.2% rise in Government Deposits (14.3% of M3). In summary, during April 2017, M1 decreased by 0.6% whereas, M2 and M3 increased by 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. The Money Multiplier The money multiplier indicates by how much the money supply and the underlying components will grow following an increase of 1 billion Dirhams in the Monetary Base, defined as the sum of Currency issued (Currency in circulation outside banks and cash at banks), Total Banks' Reserves at the Central Bank and Certificates of Deposits held by Banks (see Table 3). During the month of May 2017, the Monetary Base expanded by 3.6%. The Monetary Base expanded due to a combined increase in; Currency Issued (23.1% of the Monetary Base) by 4.7 %, Banks’ Required Reserves (34.6 % of the Monetary Base) by 1.7%, Banks & OFC’s Excess Reserves (10.1% of the Monetary Base) by 27%. These increases offset a reduction in Certificates of Deposits purchased by Banks (32.2% of the Monetary Base) by 0.9%, From the end of April 2017 to the end of May 2017, the multipliers of M1, M2 and M3 decreased from 1.48 to 1.42, from 3.72 to 3.60 and from 4.32 to 4.20 respectively, reflecting the slower growth in the Monetary Aggregates in contrast to the expansion of the monetary base. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ (*) Monetary aggregates are defined in a footnote to Table 1 Research & Statistics Department – Central Bank of the UAE (www.centralbank.ae) Page 1
3. Table 1 . UAE Monthly Monetary Survey (May 2017) (End of period, billions of Dirhams) Change in May 2017 In billions % of Change Dirhams Year on Year Change Dec Dec Mar May Jun Sep Dec Mar Apr May1 2014 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 436.1 456.9 490.3 488.9 481.0 472.5 474.1 504.4 507.2 504.4 -2.8 -0.6% 3.2% 74.5 73.5 77.2 76.6 81.3 77.3 77.6 80.1 78.3 82.0 3.7 4.7% 7.0% Cash at Banks 15.5 15.1 15.4 13.6 16.9 15.5 15.3 14.7 13.1 14.8 1.7 13.0% 8.8% Currency in Circulation Outside Banks Monetary Deposits(**) 59.0 58.4 61.8 63.0 64.4 61.8 62.3 65.4 65.2 67.2 2.0 3.1% 6.6% 377.1 398.5 428.5 425.9 416.6 410.7 411.8 439.0 442.0 437.2 -4.8 -1.1% 2.7% 1125.4 1186.8 1218.4 1186.4 1180.4 1200.2 1225.5 1272.2 1273.7 1274.5 0.8 0.1% 7.4% 689.3 729.9 728.1 697.5 699.4 727.7 751.4 767.8 766.5 770.1 3.6 0.5% 10.4% 1314.5 1342.8 1373.8 1371.3 1364.8 1368.6 1411.4 1465.8 1478.3 1487.6 9.3 0.6% 8.5% 189.1 156 155.4 184.9 184.4 168.4 185.9 193.6 204.6 213.1 8.5 4.2% 15.3% Money Supply M1(*) of which: Currency Issued Money Supply M2(*) of which: Quasi-Monetary Deposits(***) Money Supply M3(*) of which: Government Deposits 1 Estimates, subject to revision (*) M 1 = Currency in Circulation Outside Banks (Currency Issued - Cash at banks) + Monetary Deposits M2 = M1 + Quasi-Monetary Deposits M3 = M2 + Government Deposits (**) Monetary Deposits: All short term deposits on which bank customer can withdraw without prior notice (***) Quasi-Monetary Deposits: Resident Time and Savings Deposits in Dirham + Resident Deposits in Foreign Currencies Research & Statistics Department – Central Bank of the UAE (www.centralbank.ae) Page 2
4. Table 2 . Contribution to Aggregate Money Supply May1 2017 % Change -2.8 -0.6% % Change 30.3 6.4% 13.3% 2.0 3.1% 0.40% 4.9 7.9% 86.7% -4.8 -1.1% -0.9% 25.4 6.2% 0.8 0.1% 49.0 4.0% 5.3% 2.0 3.1% 0.16% 4.9 7.9% 437.2 34.3% -4.8 -1.1% -0.4% 25.4 6.2% 766.5 770.1 60.4% 3.6 0.5% 0.3% 18.7 2.5% 1465.8 1478.3 1487.6 9.3 0.6% 76.2 5.4% 62.3 65.4 65.2 67.2 4.5% 2.0 3.1% 0.14% 4.9 7.9% 398.5 411.8 439.0 442.0 437.2 29.4% -4.8 -1.1% -0.3% 25.4 6.2% 689.3 729.9 751.4 767.8 766.5 770.1 51.8% 3.6 0.5% 0.2% 18.7 2.5% 189.1 156.0 185.9 193.6 204.6 213.1 14.3% 8.5 4.2% 0.6% 27.2 14.6% Dec16 Mar17 Apr17 436.1 456.9 474.1 504.4 507.2 504.4 59.0 58.4 62.3 65.4 65.2 67.2 377.1 398.5 411.8 439.0 442.0 437.2 1125.4 1186.8 1225.5 1272.2 1273.7 1274.5 59.0 58.4 62.3 65.4 65.2 67.2 Monetary Deposits 377.1 398.5 411.8 439.0 442.0 Quasi-Monetary Deposits 689.3 729.9 751.4 767.8 1314.5 1342.8 1411.4 59.0 58.4 Monetary Deposits 377.1 Quasi-Monetary Deposits Government Deposits Currency in Circulation Outside Monetary Deposits Money Supply M2 Currency in Circulation Outside Banks Money Supply M3 Currency in Circulation Outside Banks Contribution to Aggregate Growth* In Billions of Dirhams Dec15 Banks Year to Date In Billions of Dirhams Dec14 Money Supply M1 2 In billions of Dirhams MoM Shares of the Aggregates Estimates, subject to revision * Contribution to aggregate growth = Shares of the sub-aggregate times percent change in each sub-aggregate, such that contribution of sub-aggregates equals percent change in the aggregate Research & Statistics Department – Central Bank of the UAE (www.centralbank.ae) Page 3
5. Table 3 . Money Multiplier in the UAE (End of period, billions of Dirhams) Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May1 2017 Change in May 2017 In billions of Dirhams % Change 309.2 365.2 338.1 325.4 336.3 351.5 342.2 354.5 12.3 3.6% 74.5 73.5 77.6 77.2 77.5 80.1 78.3 82.0 3.7 4.7% 104.1 111.9 116.9 116.8 118.7 119.9 120.5 122.5 2.0 1.7% Banks & OFCs' Excess Reserves 31.1 40 35.4 24.1 28.2 36.2 28.3 35.9 7.6 26.9% Certificates of Deposit purchased by 99.5 139.8 108.2 107.3 111.9 115.3 115.1 114.1 -1.0 -0.9% 436.1 456.9 474.1 479.9 488.9 504.4 507.2 504.4 -2.8 -0.6% 1.41 1.25 1.40 1.47 1.45 1.43 1.48 1.42 1125.4 1186.8 1225.5 1230.2 1244.2 1272.2 1273.7 1274.5 0.8 0.1% 3.64 3.25 3.62 3.78 3.70 3.62 3.72 3.60 1314.5 1342.8 1411.4 1415.6 1442.5 1465.8 1478.3 1487.6 9.3 0.6% 4.25 3.68 4.17 4.35 4.29 4.17 4.32 4.20 Monetary Base Currency Issued* Banks’ Required Reserves Banks Money Supply (M1) Money Multiplier of M1 (M1/Monetary Base) Money Supply (M2) Money Multiplier of M2 (M2/Monetary Base) Money Supply (M3) Money Multiplier of M3 (M3/Monetary Base) 1 Estimates, subject to revision * Currency Issued = Currency in circulation outside Banks + Cash at Banks Research & Statistics Department – Central Bank of the UAE (www.centralbank.ae) Page 4
6. Money Supply M1 decreased by 0 .6%, driven by a 1.1% reduction in Monetary Deposits. (bn AED, % month-on-month) Monetary Deposits (left axis) Money Supply M2 increased by 0.1%, due to a 0.5% increase in Quasi-Monetary Deposits. (bn AED, % month-on-month) % Change in M1 (right axis) Quasi- Monetary Deposits (left axis) 500.0 % Change in M2 (right axis) 800.0 400.0 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 3.0% 600.0 300.0 1.0% 400.0 -1.0% 200.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 Jan-14 -3.0% Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Money Supply M3 increased by 0.6%, due to increased M2 & a 4.2% increase in Government Deposits. (bn AED, % month-on-month) Government Deposits (left axis) Jul-14 4.0% 200.0 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 The Monetary Base expanded by 3.6% during May 2017. (bn AED, % month-on-month) Change in Monetary Base (right axis) Currency Issued Banks’ Required Reserves Banks & OFCs' Excess Reserves Certificates of Deposit purchased by Banks % Change in M3 (right axis) 250.0 150 3.0% 2.0% 150.0 1.0% 100.0 15.0% 100 5.0% 0.0% -1.0% 50.0 0.0 Jan-14 0.0 Jan-14 50 -5.0% -2.0% -3.0% Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 0 -15.0% Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Source: CBUAE Research & Statistics Department – Central Bank of the UAE (www.centralbank.ae) Page 5