Login Get Started
HelpDesk
 Embed  Download
  of  

or
Sign in to continue reading...

Turkey: Survey of Expectations - November 2017

IM Research
By IM Research
7 years ago
Turkey: Survey of Expectations - November 2017

Organisation Tags (1)


Create FREE account or Login to add your comment
Comments (0)


Transcription

  1. Statistics Department SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS November-2017 Statistics Department Real Sector Data Division SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS RESPONSES 1- Expectation of Monthly Consumer Inflation (CPI) 1.1 Expectation of Monthly Consumer Inflation (CPI) (%) 1.2 Expectation of Annual Consumer Inflation (CPI) - Short Term (%) 1.3 Expectation of Annual Consumer Inflation (CPI) - Long Term (%) 1.4 Probability Distributions of Consumer Price Index (CPI) Expectations (%) (*) 2- Expectation of the US Dollar Rate in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (TRY) 3- Expectation of the Annual Current Account Balance (Billion US Dollars) 4- Expectation of the Annual GDP Growth Rate (%) 5- Expectation of Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (%) 6- Expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market Overnight Interest Rate (%) 7- Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate 7.1 Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Short Term (%) 7.2 Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Long Term (%) 8- Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months 910- 8.1 Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months (%) 8.2 Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months (%) Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Five Years (%) Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Ten Years (%) www.tcmb.gov.tr 1
  2. Statistics Department Contents SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS RESPONSES PARTICIPANTS Real Sector NOVEMBER 2017 Responses 10 Business Organizations 1 Holdings 9 Financial Sector 61 Banks 37 Non-Bank Financial Sector 24 Professionals 6 Academy Members 3 Journalists 2 Non-Resident Professionals 1 Total 77 2
  3. Statistics Department Expectation of Consumer Inflation Contents Contents Expectation of Monthly Consumer Inflation (CPI) (%) Current Month Next Month 2- Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-16 65 0.23 0.86 0.88 1.00 0.83 65 0.22 0.55 0.50 0.30 0.55 63 0.43 1.11 1.11 1.00 1.11 December-16 64 0.32 0.79 0.75 0.90 0.79 62 0.42 1.21 1.19 1.00 1.21 60 0.32 0.62 0.56 0.50 0.58 January-17 68 0.43 1.48 1.50 1.50 1.44 67 0.38 0.75 0.72 0.70 0.69 66 0.35 0.80 0.76 0.70 0.76 February-17 63 0.38 0.62 0.60 0.50 0.62 61 0.33 0.74 0.80 0.80 0.76 60 0.27 0.95 1.00 1.00 0.95 March-17 69 0.29 0.70 0.72 0.50 0.68 67 0.27 0.92 0.95 1.00 0.91 64 0.27 0.64 0.68 0.50 0.62 April-17 64 0.33 0.96 1.00 1.00 0.95 64 0.33 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.60 62 0.48 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.24 May-17 63 0.33 0.63 0.60 0.50 0.59 63 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.22 60 0.37 0.38 0.30 0.20 0.35 June-17 75 0.27 0.14 0.15 0.30 0.14 73 0.22 0.25 0.24 0.20 0.25 73 0.24 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.22 July-17 67 0.23 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.18 65 0.24 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 63 0.27 0.57 0.50 0.50 0.57 August-17 56 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.21 55 0.24 0.57 0.55 0.50 0.57 55 0.50 1.17 1.25 1.20 1.17 September-17 66 0.22 0.57 0.55 0.50 0.57 65 0.45 1.22 1.30 1.60 1.22 64 0.22 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 October-17 58 0.40 1.31 1.35 1.00 1.31 57 0.26 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.60 57 0.33 0.51 0.45 0.30 0.51 November-17 67 0.28 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.75 66 0.40 0.50 0.45 0.50 0.43 67 0.49 1.27 1.20 1.50 1.27 3
  4. Statistics Department Expectation of Consumer Inflation o Contents Expectation of Annual Consumer Inflation (CPI) - Short Term (%) End of the Year Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median November-16 67 0.33 7.80 December-16 66 0.33 7.69 January-17 69 0.89 February-17 64 March-17 End of the Next 12 Months Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median 7.80 7.50 7.80 61 0.57 7.87 7.70 7.50 7.69 61 0.67 8.04 8.58 8.40 8.00 8.48 60 1.03 0.51 8.87 8.99 9.00 8.87 57 73 0.63 9.12 9.00 9.00 9.08 April-17 67 0.84 9.38 9.25 9.50 May-17 67 0.73 9.61 9.50 June-17 78 0.61 9.59 9.50 July-17 71 0.55 9.55 August-17 64 0.47 September-17 70 October-17 November-17 End of the Next 24 Months Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean 7.85 8.00 7.87 60 0.69 7.27 7.24 7.00 7.27 8.00 8.00 8.04 58 0.74 7.38 7.49 7.50 7.31 8.33 8.20 8.00 8.19 60 1.05 7.70 7.53 7.50 7.59 0.63 8.21 8.10 8.00 8.21 56 0.71 7.59 7.50 7.00 7.59 62 0.72 8.18 8.00 8.00 8.15 59 0.76 7.70 7.70 7.00 7.70 9.28 59 0.92 8.34 8.20 8.00 8.27 57 0.71 7.87 7.80 8.00 7.87 9.50 9.53 57 0.92 8.41 8.40 8.50 8.41 56 0.79 7.98 7.95 8.00 7.93 9.50 9.55 68 0.66 8.32 8.41 8.50 8.32 67 0.67 7.88 7.90 8.00 7.90 9.50 9.50 9.49 63 0.66 8.41 8.40 8.50 8.41 62 0.61 7.93 7.93 7.50 7.93 9.51 9.50 9.50 9.46 55 0.81 8.48 8.50 8.50 8.37 53 0.62 7.96 8.00 8.00 7.92 0.59 9.74 9.72 9.50 9.72 62 0.83 8.44 8.50 8.50 8.35 60 0.80 8.02 8.00 8.00 7.93 63 0.56 9.98 9.90 9.80 9.89 54 0.78 8.61 8.50 8.50 8.52 53 0.77 8.03 8.00 8.00 7.98 74 0.63 10.74 10.69 11.00 10.68 68 1.01 8.99 8.73 8.50 8.65 65 1.08 8.34 8.00 8.00 8.25 4
  5. Statistics Department Expectation of Consumer Inflation Expectation of Annual Consumer Inflation (CPI) - Long Term (%) o Contents End of the Next 5 Years End of the Next 10 Years Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-17 62 1.30 6.70 6.50 6.00 6.70 61 1.55 6.09 6.00 5.00 5.99 5
  6. Probability Distributions of Consumer Price Index (CPI) Expectations (%) Statistical Department (*) Contents 12-Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. < 5.00 5.00-5.49 5.50-5.99 6.00-6.49 6.50-6.99 7.00-7.49 7.50-7.99 8.00-8.49 8.50-8.99 9.00-9.49 9.50-9.99 10.00-10.49 10.50-10.99 11.00-11.49 11.50-11.99 ≥ 12.00 November-16 40 0.00 0.00 0.14 1.13 5.75 20.33 31.85 22.72 10.49 5.65 1.77 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 December-16 40 0.00 0.00 0.43 1.69 4.02 17.72 30.44 24.93 11.90 5.20 3.33 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 January-17 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 5.21 8.44 19.51 28.88 20.62 12.63 3.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 February-17 38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 2.44 12.14 24.28 31.77 20.17 5.74 1.66 1.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 March-17 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.03 3.57 10.00 22.40 29.96 22.33 7.94 1.33 1.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 April-17 37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.91 9.91 18.02 27.79 25.41 10.98 2.95 2.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 May-17 36 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.44 5.33 9.83 17.73 27.83 18.62 10.63 5.77 2.31 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 June-17 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.09 9.20 18.09 29.70 21.88 11.82 4.89 1.20 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 July-17 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 1.49 7.52 19.22 28.82 21.38 15.28 4.76 1.30 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 August-17 38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 1.76 8.07 14.51 30.52 27.29 16.13 1.58 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 September-17 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 4.02 9.95 13.64 20.93 23.61 15.76 6.14 2.75 1.80 1.17 0.23 0.00 October-17 36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.16 5.82 12.83 20.87 27.99 16.58 8.81 3.06 1.46 1.07 0.35 0.00 November-17 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 4.43 17.17 27.65 24.08 12.04 7.25 3.18 1.25 0.20 2.33 24-Month Ahead (**) Current Period No. Of Obs. < 3.50 3.50-4.49 4.50-5.49 5.50-6.49 6.50-7.49 ≥ 7.5 November-16 39 0.00 0.00 5.39 14.87 51.28 28.46 December-16 39 0.00 0.00 4.61 15.90 54.36 25.13 January-17 42 0.00 0.24 3.33 12.86 44.52 39.05 February-17 37 0.00 0.00 3.24 8.38 48.92 39.46 March-17 41 0.00 0.49 4.39 8.54 46.58 40.00 April-17 37 0.00 0.00 3.24 5.68 44.59 46.49 May-17 35 0.00 0.00 0.28 6.86 43.43 49.43 June-17 42 0.00 0.00 0.24 8.81 40.95 50.00 July-17 40 0.00 0.00 0.50 6.50 43.50 49.50 August-17 37 0.00 0.00 0.54 5.95 42.70 50.81 September-17 38 0.00 0.00 0.53 6.05 38.42 55.00 October-17 36 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.11 34.72 59.17 24-Month Ahead (**) Current Period No. Of Obs. < 5.00 5.00-5.49 5.50-5.99 6.00-6.49 6.50-6.99 7.00-7.49 7.50-7.99 8.00-8.49 8.50-8.99 9.00-9.49 9.50-9.99 10.00-10.49 10.50-10.99 11.00-11.49 11.50-11.99 ≥ 12.00 November-17 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 5.03 10.89 20.42 25.92 20.29 8.35 3.03 2.30 0.52 0.22 0.00 2.39 (*) Detailed information is available at website of CBRT under the menu "Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Survey of Expectations/Metadata" (**) The format of the probability distribution question of "expectation of consumer inflation for the next 24 months" has been changed starting from November 2017. The probability distributions of expectations are started to be determined according to the point forecasts given by the respondents, while they were kept constant before. 6
  7. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the US Dollar Rate in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (TRY) End of the Current Month End of the Year End of the Next 12 Months Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-16 70 0.0685 3.3398 3.3394 3.3000 3.3398 68 0.1099 3.3369 3.3225 3.4000 3.3369 62 0.1788 3.5157 3.5000 3.5000 3.4996 December-16 69 0.0639 3.4671 3.4600 3.5000 3.4602 69 0.0639 3.4671 3.4600 3.5000 3.4602 63 0.1545 3.6317 3.6500 3.6000 3.6317 January-17 72 0.0619 3.7598 3.7825 3.8000 3.7675 70 0.1963 3.8619 3.8700 4.0000 3.8619 63 0.2778 3.9553 3.9800 4.0000 3.9553 February-17 66 0.0682 3.7189 3.7275 3.7500 3.7189 65 0.1835 3.8807 3.9000 4.0000 3.8807 58 0.2480 3.9600 3.9500 4.0000 3.9600 March-17 72 0.0699 3.7569 3.7500 3.7500 3.7537 74 0.1608 3.8495 3.9000 3.9000 3.8495 65 0.1826 3.9194 3.9000 4.0000 3.9194 April-17 69 0.0689 3.6989 3.7000 3.7000 3.6989 66 0.1593 3.8453 3.8500 3.9000 3.8352 61 0.1948 3.9593 3.9200 4.0000 3.9385 May-17 67 0.0430 3.6080 3.6000 3.6000 3.6080 68 0.1555 3.8027 3.8000 3.8000 3.8027 57 0.1916 3.9395 3.9400 3.9000 3.9395 June-17 79 0.0424 3.5558 3.5500 3.5500 3.5558 78 0.1325 3.7553 3.7500 3.7500 3.7553 71 0.1642 3.9132 3.9000 4.0000 3.9042 July-17 70 0.0357 3.5851 3.5938 3.6000 3.5851 69 0.1133 3.7492 3.7500 3.8000 3.7492 64 0.1657 3.8882 3.9000 3.9000 3.9043 August-17 61 0.0332 3.5628 3.5500 3.5500 3.5586 62 0.1164 3.7260 3.7200 3.8000 3.7199 56 0.1355 3.8717 3.9000 3.9000 3.8717 September-17 70 0.0449 3.4629 3.4500 3.4500 3.4629 69 0.1077 3.6323 3.6500 3.6000 3.6323 62 0.1465 3.8255 3.8250 3.8000 3.8255 October-17 62 0.0536 3.6554 3.6500 3.6500 3.6522 63 0.1009 3.7237 3.7229 3.7500 3.7165 57 0.1446 3.8776 3.8900 3.9000 3.8757 November-17 74 0.0484 3.8590 3.8525 3.8500 3.8590 74 0.1153 3.8624 3.8550 3.8500 3.8624 67 0.2231 4.0941 4.1000 4.0000 4.0819 7
  8. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the Annual Current Account Balance (Billion US Dollars) Current Year Next Year Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-16 66 1.8 -34.0 -34.0 -33.0 -34.0 61 3.8 -36.6 -36.0 -35.0 -36.7 December-16 65 1.5 -34.0 -34.0 -34.0 -34.0 59 3.3 -37.0 -36.5 -35.0 -36.8 January-17 70 4.9 -36.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.4 60 6.7 -38.5 -38.0 -40.0 -38.2 February-17 63 3.7 -35.3 -35.0 -35.0 -35.6 55 4.8 -37.5 -38.0 -40.0 -37.9 March-17 69 3.8 -35.6 -35.0 -35.0 -35.8 58 4.9 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.5 April-17 65 3.7 -35.6 -36.0 -36.0 -35.7 56 5.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.5 May-17 62 3.5 -35.5 -35.9 -35.0 -35.6 53 4.2 -37.8 -38.5 -38.0 -38.3 June-17 74 2.9 -35.7 -36.0 -35.0 -35.8 64 3.8 -38.2 -39.0 -40.0 -38.7 July-17 65 2.2 -36.4 -36.0 -35.0 -36.3 60 3.5 -38.9 -39.0 -40.0 -38.5 August-17 59 2.3 -36.8 -37.0 -37.0 -36.7 52 3.7 -38.8 -39.0 -40.0 -38.6 September-17 65 2.2 -37.2 -37.0 -36.0 -36.9 59 3.2 -39.3 -39.0 -40.0 -39.3 October-17 59 2.1 -38.3 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 54 3.6 -40.1 -40.0 -40.0 -40.1 November-17 71 2.2 -39.1 -39.0 -38.0 -39.1 67 4.0 -40.5 -40.0 -40.0 -40.5 8
  9. Statistics Department Expectation of the Annual GDP Growth Rate (%) Contents Current Year Next Year Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-16 68 0.4 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 65 0.6 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.3 December-16 66 0.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 62 0.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 January-17 70 0.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 61 0.6 3.5 3.5 4.0 3.6 February-17 65 0.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 58 0.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 March-17 73 0.5 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 64 0.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 April-17 67 0.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 60 0.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 May-17 67 0.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 58 0.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.7 June-17 77 0.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 71 0.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 July-17 69 0.6 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 64 0.6 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 August-17 62 0.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 56 0.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 September-17 68 0.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 64 0.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 October-17 62 0.5 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.2 57 0.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.3 November-17 73 0.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 69 0.7 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 9
  10. Statistics Department Contents Contents Expectation of Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (%) Current Month 3- Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-16 63 0.11 7.82 7.80 7.80 7.80 December-16 63 0.51 8.35 8.30 8.30 8.33 January-17 68 0.41 9.13 9.18 9.00 9.13 February-17 62 0.42 10.30 10.35 10.40 10.37 March-17 69 0.26 10.81 10.80 11.00 10.81 April-17 65 0.32 11.46 11.50 11.50 11.49 May-17 63 0.17 11.92 11.95 12.00 11.96 June-17 74 0.12 11.96 11.97 12.00 11.97 July-17 65 0.35 11.88 11.95 11.95 11.96 August-17 58 0.15 11.98 11.97 12.00 11.97 September-17 67 0.09 11.98 12.00 12.00 12.00 October-17 58 0.02 11.99 12.00 12.00 12.00 November-17 71 0.13 12.01 12.00 12.00 12.00 (*) 12- Month Ahead No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean 71 0.71 12.36 12.00 12.00 12.20 No. Of Std. Obs. Dev. 67 1.24 (*) Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean 11.69 11.95 12.00 11.69 (*) Started to be asked from November 2017. 10
  11. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market Overnight Interest Rate (%) End of the Current Month Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-16 59 0.30 8.13 8.25 8.25 8.10 December-16 57 0.45 8.39 8.40 8.50 8.33 January-17 62 0.62 9.55 9.50 10.00 9.55 February-17 58 0.63 10.19 10.15 11.00 10.19 March-17 63 0.56 10.66 10.60 11.00 10.66 April-17 58 0.50 11.38 11.40 11.75 11.38 May-17 56 0.33 11.86 11.83 12.25 11.86 June-17 64 0.24 11.95 11.90 12.00 11.96 July-17 58 0.27 11.93 11.91 12.25 11.95 August-17 53 0.22 11.97 11.95 12.25 11.97 September-17 59 0.51 11.88 12.00 12.25 11.98 October-17 49 0.19 11.98 11.98 12.00 11.98 November-17 58 0.28 12.02 12.00 12.25 12.02 11
  12. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Short Term (%) End of the Current Month Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median November-16 62 0.12 7.54 December-16 62 0.19 January-17 65 February-17 3 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median 7.50 7.50 7.50 59 0.50 7.76 8.08 8.00 8.00 8.00 59 0.40 0.54 8.55 8.50 8.50 8.55 61 58 0.19 8.08 8.00 8.00 8.00 March-17 64 0.28 8.11 8.00 8.00 April-17 61 0.18 8.04 8.00 May-17 61 0.11 8.03 June-17 70 0.19 July-17 61 0.00 August-17 55 September-17 6 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean 7.50 7.50 7.61 56 0.54 7.83 7.50 7.50 7.71 8.32 8.25 8.00 8.32 57 0.47 8.44 8.50 8.00 8.44 0.71 8.87 8.75 9.00 8.87 59 0.68 8.95 9.00 8.50 8.95 58 0.48 8.43 8.38 8.00 8.43 57 0.61 8.59 8.50 8.00 8.59 8.00 62 0.50 8.39 8.25 8.00 8.31 57 0.59 8.58 8.50 8.00 8.53 8.00 8.00 59 0.48 8.29 8.00 8.00 8.21 56 0.58 8.38 8.25 8.00 8.27 8.00 8.00 8.00 60 0.50 8.25 8.00 8.00 8.10 57 0.73 8.36 8.00 8.00 8.17 8.03 8.00 8.00 8.00 69 0.38 8.15 8.00 8.00 8.00 67 0.48 8.23 8.00 8.00 8.09 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 61 0.25 8.07 8.00 8.00 8.00 60 0.42 8.12 8.00 8.00 8.01 0.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 52 0.21 8.05 8.00 8.00 8.00 50 0.51 8.16 8.00 8.00 8.00 63 0.07 8.01 8.00 8.00 8.00 61 0.19 8.05 8.00 8.00 8.00 57 0.39 8.14 8.00 8.00 8.00 October-17 54 0.07 8.01 8.00 8.00 8.00 53 0.20 8.05 8.00 8.00 8.00 51 0.39 8.10 8.00 8.00 8.00 November-17 65 0.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 65 0.41 8.11 8.00 8.00 8.00 62 0.47 8.14 8.00 8.00 8.00 12
  13. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of One-Week CBRT Repo Auction Interest Rate - Long Term (%) 12 - Month Ahead 24 - Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-16 56 0.68 7.92 7.75 7.50 7.74 56 0.87 7.95 7.75 7.50 7.89 December-16 55 0.59 8.50 8.50 8.00 8.50 53 0.83 8.33 8.00 8.00 8.33 January-17 58 0.73 8.71 8.50 9.00 8.71 57 0.93 8.43 8.25 8.00 8.43 February-17 55 0.68 8.57 8.50 8.00 8.52 54 0.73 8.37 8.00 8.00 8.32 March-17 56 0.66 8.51 8.50 8.00 8.51 56 0.75 8.29 8.13 8.00 8.29 April-17 55 0.72 8.38 8.50 8.00 8.29 55 0.87 8.20 8.00 8.00 8.18 May-17 55 0.74 8.42 8.25 8.00 8.25 53 0.90 8.36 8.00 8.00 8.15 June-17 65 0.52 8.23 8.00 8.00 8.15 65 0.61 8.13 8.00 8.00 8.13 July-17 57 0.53 8.21 8.00 8.00 8.09 56 0.74 8.16 8.00 8.00 8.11 August-17 49 0.50 8.19 8.00 8.00 8.07 49 0.50 8.01 8.00 8.00 8.05 September-17 57 0.49 8.19 8.00 8.00 8.10 56 0.68 8.14 8.00 8.00 8.09 October-17 49 0.40 8.18 8.00 8.00 8.01 49 0.50 8.08 8.00 8.00 8.03 November-17 61 1.01 8.30 8.00 8.00 8.00 59 1.20 8.26 8.00 8.00 8.00 13
  14. Statistics Department Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months (%) End of the Current Month Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median November-16 52 0.42 8.72 December-16 53 0.65 January-17 55 February-17 Contents 1 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median 8.65 8.50 8.72 51 0.45 8.82 9.13 8.90 8.75 8.98 50 0.72 0.73 10.34 10.50 10.00 10.39 55 54 0.48 10.82 11.00 11.00 10.87 March-17 57 0.40 10.84 10.80 11.00 April-17 56 0.43 10.91 10.86 May-17 52 0.44 11.18 June-17 60 0.58 July-17 53 0.45 August-17 48 September-17 3 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean 8.70 8.50 8.82 50 0.60 8.92 8.78 9.00 8.92 9.26 9.00 9.00 9.11 48 0.67 9.33 9.23 9.50 9.33 0.76 10.44 10.50 11.00 10.53 54 0.70 10.50 10.50 11.00 10.50 54 0.53 10.89 11.00 11.00 10.94 52 0.59 10.87 11.00 11.00 10.89 10.84 54 0.43 10.91 10.90 11.00 10.91 52 0.53 10.88 11.00 11.00 10.85 11.00 10.84 54 0.48 10.92 10.90 11.00 10.89 53 0.55 10.81 10.85 10.50 10.81 11.23 11.00 11.18 50 0.48 11.16 11.18 11.00 11.16 49 0.60 11.15 11.10 11.00 11.15 11.13 11.13 11.00 11.09 59 0.62 11.11 11.10 11.20 11.07 59 0.67 11.07 11.00 11.00 11.03 10.91 10.90 11.00 10.87 52 0.45 10.90 10.88 11.00 10.85 51 0.46 10.87 10.95 11.00 10.87 0.50 11.02 10.95 10.90 10.99 47 0.51 11.02 11.00 11.00 10.98 48 0.50 11.01 11.00 11.00 11.01 54 0.39 11.36 11.38 11.00 11.33 53 0.41 11.37 11.40 11.50 11.32 54 0.38 11.29 11.25 11.00 11.29 October-17 47 0.50 11.88 12.00 11.50 11.88 46 0.46 11.79 11.80 11.50 11.79 44 0.58 11.59 11.50 12.00 11.59 November-17 57 0.66 12.70 12.80 12.50 12.70 56 0.88 12.67 12.68 12.50 12.61 55 1.31 12.53 12.50 12.50 12.42 14
  15. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of annually compounded interest rate of TRY denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with maturity of about three months (%) 6 - Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median November-16 50 0.74 8.98 December-16 48 0.65 January-17 52 February-17 12 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median 8.78 8.50 8.98 50 0.76 8.97 9.34 9.20 9.00 9.34 48 0.69 0.74 10.38 10.28 10.00 10.38 52 51 0.65 10.77 10.90 10.50 10.81 March-17 52 0.63 10.78 10.80 11.00 April-17 53 0.56 10.77 10.80 May-17 49 0.64 11.10 June-17 59 0.70 July-17 51 0.54 August-17 46 September-17 24 - Month Ahead Mode Modified Mean No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean 8.83 8.50 8.97 49 1.00 8.97 8.75 8.50 8.79 9.27 9.02 9.00 9.23 47 0.94 9.13 9.00 9.50 9.05 0.84 10.11 10.00 10.00 10.11 52 1.13 9.79 10.00 9.00 9.79 51 0.86 10.43 10.25 10.00 10.43 51 1.14 10.11 10.00 10.00 10.11 10.78 52 0.86 10.45 10.50 10.00 10.45 52 1.09 10.08 10.00 10.00 10.08 11.00 10.74 53 0.84 10.45 10.50 10.50 10.45 53 1.05 10.11 10.10 10.00 10.11 11.00 11.00 11.10 49 0.78 10.67 10.55 10.50 10.61 49 0.99 10.30 10.10 10.00 10.24 10.94 11.00 11.00 10.90 59 0.82 10.46 10.50 10.00 10.40 59 0.93 10.08 10.00 10.00 10.12 10.76 10.80 11.00 10.76 50 0.69 10.41 10.50 10.50 10.41 50 0.89 10.06 10.10 9.00 10.06 0.54 10.86 10.80 11.00 10.76 46 0.72 10.58 10.50 10.50 10.58 46 0.91 10.22 10.25 10.50 10.21 52 0.49 11.06 10.95 11.00 11.06 52 0.75 10.76 10.55 10.50 10.76 52 0.97 10.35 10.20 10.00 10.35 October-17 44 0.67 11.32 11.23 11.50 11.34 44 0.80 11.03 11.00 11.00 11.03 44 0.97 10.77 10.50 10.50 10.77 November-17 55 1.25 12.24 12.20 12.00 12.15 54 1.35 11.81 11.90 11.00 11.65 53 1.36 11.18 11.00 10.00 11.18 15
  16. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Five Years (%) 12 - Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-16 56 0.78 10.56 10.78 11.00 10.56 December-16 53 0.79 10.92 11.00 11.00 11.00 January-17 57 0.82 11.03 11.00 11.50 11.03 February-17 56 0.65 10.94 11.00 11.00 10.97 March-17 58 0.72 11.04 11.00 11.00 11.10 April-17 57 0.68 10.93 11.00 11.00 11.01 May-17 51 0.75 10.90 11.00 11.00 10.85 June-17 60 0.54 10.54 10.60 11.00 10.54 July-17 57 0.70 10.75 10.75 11.00 10.69 August-17 50 0.61 10.72 10.75 11.00 10.72 September-17 56 0.65 10.80 10.80 10.50 10.73 October-17 48 0.71 11.12 11.10 11.50 11.11 November-17 58 1.07 11.92 12.00 12.00 11.92 16
  17. Statistics Department Contents Expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated Government Domestic Debt Securities with Maturity of About Ten Years (%) 12 - Month Ahead Current Period No. Of Obs. Std. Dev. Arith. Mean Median Mode Modified Mean November-16 60 0.76 10.79 11.00 11.00 10.83 December-16 58 0.76 11.10 11.25 11.50 11.18 January-17 59 0.84 11.13 11.20 11.00 11.13 February-17 58 0.77 10.97 11.00 11.00 11.00 March-17 61 0.75 11.14 11.25 11.00 11.16 April-17 59 0.72 10.99 11.10 11.10 10.98 May-17 54 0.84 10.86 10.78 11.00 10.82 June-17 62 0.57 10.48 10.50 10.50 10.48 July-17 59 0.71 10.69 10.61 10.50 10.67 August-17 51 0.60 10.62 10.70 10.50 10.63 September-17 58 0.68 10.61 10.60 10.50 10.56 October-17 51 0.73 10.98 11.00 10.50 10.98 November-17 60 0.96 11.57 11.50 11.50 11.57 17