Treasury Brief - 1 September

Transcription

1. TREASURY MM ORNING BRIEF TREASURY ORNING BRIEF 01 September 2016 Treasury Sales +44 207 648 7786/89 - Reuters BACM Market Report Rates There's a bull in a China shop . Commodities led the way, lead, tin and the kitchen zinc all reaching their highest levels for over a year, AUD/USD got close to 0.7550 as China's official purchasing managers index unexpectedly posted a gain to 50.4 versus a 49.9 consensus, so manufacturing back in positive territory but let's be fair only just. WTI Crude trades closer to $45 a barrel after yesterday's biggest drop for a month when Saudi Arabia dented hopes that the supply glut would be slowed. Manufacturing day today as PMI numbers from Europe and the U.S follow those from China. Whilst these are of interest tomorrows Non-farm payrolls are the hot potato of this week, will they follow the strong ADP numbers? give backing to Yellen and the Fed post Jackson Hole? I have my doubts. Core Government bond yields are higher, Gilt 10 year a massive 0.68% as the BoE reverse auctions conclude for the week. EM Credit Price wise the FED hike talk has not helped EM credit though moves have not been overly aggressive, caution required of course, even so if we get an early hike yield hunting still plays a part and ultimately as such you should expect support. U.S NFP tomorrow , as I say I have doubts but a strong posting will be difficult to deal with and bring a hike closer at least in the markets psyche. Yellen and co aside South Africa is still turbulent as the battle between Zuma and Gordhan rolls on, markets worried that if Gordhan goes the S.A economy suffers, initially I have to agree and the ratings agencies will view it likewise. A few Primary issues this week in my absence, QNB issuing a $1bn 5 year yesterday, Sharjah Islamic Bank has guidance for a $500m 5 year sukuk. Egypt, Bahrain, Ghana all waiting in the wings lest we forget Saudi Arabia and their mega deal that could surface this month or early October. Foreign Exchange Weak Eurozone manufacturing has put pressure on the single currency this morning, strong U.K manufacturing having the opposite effect. The dollar remaining generally well supported in light volumes ahead of Friday's NFP's EUR/USD support 1.1120 1.1050 resistance 1.1180 1.1210 GBP/USD support 1.3200 1.3150 resistance 1.3275 1.3325 Economic Indicators Area EC UK US US Data Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI Initial Jobless claims Manufacturing PMI Date Aug Aug Aug Aug Previous 51.8 48.2 261k 52.1 Expected 51.8 49.0 265k 52.1 US ISM Manufacturing Aug 52.6 52.0 Today's Tipples  Eurozone Manufacturing a little weaker than expected posting at 51.7, U.K Manufacturing CPI better than expectations coming at 53.3  Rwanda's trade deficit narrows 23.4% in July from June, YoY narrows 11.6%  Angola should announce any change in Benchmark rate, currently at 16%  China Manufacturing at 50.4 against 49.9 expectations  Japn press reporting "BoJ may surprise market yet again"....heard that before! WWW.BACB.CO.UK
2. FX Markets Bond Markets GBP /USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/EUR Today 1.3138 1.1158 103.43 1.1775 Dec-15 1.4736 1.0862 120.22 1.3571 USD/CHF USD/MAD USD/TND USD/LYD USD / TRY USD/NGN USD/ZAR 0.9839 9.7608 2.2073 1.3700 2.9580 314.25 14.73 1.0021 9.9314 2.0409 1.3535 2.9148 199.30 15.47 Today 46.89 4605.75 1308.97 18.66 1614.00 388.25 20.06 Dec-15 37.28 4705.75 1061.10 13.85 1507.00 507.50 14.68 US 10 Year UK 10 Year GER 10 Year Today 1.58 0.64 -0.06 Dec-15 2.27 1.96 0.63 Equity Markets FTSE 100 S&P 500 DOW JONES Euro Stoxx Nikkei Shanghai Comp Today 6781.51 2170.95 18400.88 3023.13 16887.40 3085.49 Dec-15 6242.32 2043.94 17425.03 3267.52 19033.71 3539.18 Commodities Brent Crude Copper Gold Silver Aluminium Wheat Sugar This document has been prepared for information purposes only and is issued by British Arab Commercial Bank plc (BACB). It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication only. It does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire, securities in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Any information contained in this document does not take into account any particular investment objectives, or other financial situation which may be relevant to any particular investor to whom this information may be sent. As a result, investors using the information should assess whether it is appropriate in light of their own individual circumstances before acting on it. The information in this document is based on information obtained from sources believed by BACB to be reliable, but BACB does not represent or warrant, nor accepts responsibility, as to its completeness or accuracy. If you are to rely on the information you are strongly recommended to take your own independent advice. The information on which this document is based may change and BACB is under no obligation to update the information. Sources of information obtained from third parties are cited as appropriate. Copyright (c) British Arab Commercial Bank plc 2013, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, or on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of British Arab Commercial Bank plc. British Arab Commercial Bank plc Registered Office: 8-10 Mansion House Place, London EC4N 8BJ. Registered in England WWW.BACB.CO.UK