Technical Analysis Saudi Stock Exchange - 20 March

Transcription

1. KAMCO Research Technical Analysis – Saudi Stock Exchange 20-March-2017 Saudi Stock Exchange In this Report… Tadawul Index……………..…. 1 BJAZ………….………....………... 2 ALINMA…..……………….…….. 2 SABIC.……………..……..…...... 3 TASNEE…………..…..……….… 3 Tadawul All Share Index <.TASI> closed at 6,919.25 point. The market has recovered some of its loses after failing to break below MAs. The recovery is still insufficient to anticipate an end to the downside risk but further advance cannot be neglected. However, a break above the tiny resistance level at around 7,000 point would promote 7,175 point but we still need a jump over 7,350 point to confirm another leg up towards 8,000 point. On the counter side, losing the support level at 6,700 point would be a negative sign that should trigger 6,500 point and maybe 6,350 point. Weekly and daily RSI indicators are looking neutral at present. Medium-term and long-term investors can stay in the market as long as the index closes above 11,160 6,700 point. Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 176] .TASI BarOHLC, .TASI 23/03/2017, 6,921.60, 6,964.35, 6,912.25, 6,919.25, -33.38, (-0.48%) Cndl, .TASI 23/03/2017, 6,921.60, 6,964.35, 6,912.25, 6,919.25, -33.38, (-0.48%) WMA, .TASI 23/03/2017, 6,681.90 WMA, .TASI 23/03/2017, 6,710.07 WMA, .TASI 23/03/2017, 6,985.28 17/09/2014 - 06/09/2017 (RIY) Price SAR 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 8,000 7,500 7,350 6,350 6,500 6,700 6,985.28 7,000 6,919.25 6,919.25 6,500 6,710.07 6,681.90 6,000 5,500 5,230 5,000 Auto O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 4,068 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 176] .TASI MACD, .TASI 23/03/2017, 135.74, 164.93 18/06/2009 - 17/08/2017 (RIY) Value 164.93 SAR 135.74 0 -400 Auto RSI, .TASI 23/03/2017, 53.908 Value SAR 60 53.908 30 Faisal Hasan, CFA Head - Investment Research +(965) 2233 6907 Auto Vol, .TASI 26.42 23/03/2017, 278.048M Volume 3B 2B faisal.hasan@kamconline.com 1B 278.048M Auto ROC, .TASI 23/03/2017, -2.421 Raed Diab Value SAR 20 Vice President 10 0 -2.421 -10 +(965) 2233 6908 -20 raed.diab@kamconline.com Auto Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 KAMCO Investment Research Department, 16th Floor, Al-Shaheed Tower, Khalid Bin Al-Waleed Street- Sharq, P.O. BOX : 28873, Safat 13149, Kuwait Technical Analysis Tel.: (+965) 1 852 626 Fax: (+965) 2249 2395 Email: Kamcoird@kamconline.com Website: http://www.kamconline.com 1
2. KAMCO Research March - 2017 Bank Aljazira Reuters Ticker : <1020.SE> Price closed at SAR15.05. The technical picture of the stock is positive as it sustains a move above MAs and a firm close above the horizontal line at SAR14.85 would call for an establishment of a new bull trend. However, managing to do so would open the space for a gradual increase towards the resistance level at SAR18.30. On the other side, only losing the support level at SAR12.80 would delay any upward potential and trigger SAR10.90. Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 176] 1020.SE 27/03/2014 - 18/05/2017 (RIY) BarOHLC, 1020.SE 23/03/2017, 14.50, 15.20, 14.50, 15.05, N/A, N/A Cndl, 1020.SE 23/03/2017, 14.50, 15.20, 14.50, 15.05, N/A, N/A WMA, 1020.SE 23/03/2017, 13.89 WMA, 1020.SE 23/03/2017, 12.98 WMA, 1020.SE 23/03/2017, 14.10 Price SAR 18.3 9.45 MACD, 1020.SE 23/03/2017, 0.38, 0.25 MACD 0.25 18 ROC 5.614 M10 13.90 M50 13.00 M100 14.10 S1 12.80 S2 10.90 Value 0.38 0.25 SAR Auto RSI, 1020.SE 23/03/2017, 65.458 Value 65.458 SAR Auto Vol, 1020.SE 23/03/2017, 11.352M ROC, 1020.SE 23/03/2017, 5.614 Volume S3 9.45 11.352M Auto R1 16.50 Value 5.614 SAR Auto R2 18.30 R3 21.90 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Alinma Bank 65.458 21 15.05 15 15.05 12.8 12 14.10 10.9 13.89 Auto 12.98 14.85 RSI Reuters Ticker: <1150.SE> Price closed at SAR14.60. The stock is not showing any sign of trend at present but the move above the horizontal line at SAR13.65 is a positive sign. However, we have a bolded resistance level at SAR15.60, which should be cleared first to call for another leg up towards SAR16.5 and SAR18.00. On the counter side, a fall27.8below SAR13.65 would suggest a return back to SAR12.40 but a re-test of last year low at SAR10.75 is not favored. 25.2 Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 176] 1150.SE 16/01/2013 - 14/06/2017 (RIY) Cndl, 1150.SE 23/03/2017, 14.60, 14.70, 14.55, 14.60, N/A, N/A WMA, 1150.SE 23/03/2017, 14.62 WMA, 1150.SE 23/03/2017, 13.98 WMA, 1150.SE 23/03/2017, 14.26 Price SAR 20 18 16.5 12.4 18 16 14.62 14.60 14 13.65 14.26 13.98 12 15.6 10.75 MACD, 1150.SE 8.75 23/03/2017, 0.28, 0.32 RSI, 1150.SE 23/03/2017, 55.048 Vol, 1150.SE 23/03/2017, 37.315M Auto 0.32 Value 0.28 SAR Auto Value 55.048 SAR Auto Volume 37.315M Auto ROC, 1150.SE 23/03/2017, -1.017 Value -1.017 SAR Auto RSI 55.048 MACD 0.32 ROC -1.017 M10 14.60 M50 14.00 M100 14.25 S1 13.65 S2 12.40 S3 10.75 R1 15.60 R2 16.50 R3 18.00 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Technical Analysis 2
3. KAMCO Research March - 2017 Saudi Basic Industries Corp . Reuters Ticker: <2010.SE> Price closed at SAR96.25. A critical line of resistance was formed on the weekly chart at SAR98.25 as the stock showed continuous reluctance to break it, knowing that a firm close above this is needed to anticipate a jump to SAR105.75 before SAR110.50. However, we will not be surprised to witness some downward move on the coming period due to that failure but should be limited to the support zone at SAR90.50-SAR87.00. 136.5 Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 176] 2010.SE 31/10/2012 - 14/06/2017 (RIY) BarOHLC, 2010.SE 23/03/2017, 96.75, 97.50, 96.00, 96.25, N/A, N/A Cndl, 2010.SE 23/03/2017, 96.75, 97.50, 96.00, 96.25, N/A, N/A WMA, 2010.SE 23/03/2017, 96.75 WMA, 2010.SE 23/03/2017, 90.30 WMA, 2010.SE 23/03/2017, 86.10 Price SAR 110.5 96.75 100 96.25 90.5 96.25 90 90.30 80 86.10 98.25 87 76 70 70 60 59.5 55.25 MACD, 2010.SE 40 23/03/2017, 3.09, 3.24 33.6 RSI, 2010.SE 23/03/2017, 62.024 Vol, 2010.SE 23/03/2017, 5.590M N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National Industrialization Co. 62.024 MACD 3.24 ROC 1.852 M10 96.75 M50 90.30 Auto M100 86.10 3.09 Value SAR Auto S1 90.50 Value 62.024 SAR Auto S2 87.00 S3 76.00 Volume 5.590M Auto ROC, 2010.SE 23/03/2017, 1.852 RSI Value 1.852 SAR Auto R1 98.25 R2 105.75 R3 110.50 Reuters Ticker: <2060.SE> Price closed at SAR16.70. The stock fulfilled and exceeded our target price at SAR17.00 as it smoothly moved within an upward trend line. Some weaknesses were seen on the last few trading sessions after the price posted a high of SAR20.00 and eyes have shifted towards the support level at SAR14.90, which should arrest additional loses to SAR11.00. However, a firm close above SAR20.00 42.9to call for an advance to SAR26.70. should be enough 41.1 Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 176] 2060.SE BarOHLC, 2060.SE 23/03/2017, 16.15, 16.90, 16.00, 16.70, N/A, N/A Cndl, 2060.SE 23/03/2017, 16.15, 16.90, 16.00, 16.70, N/A, N/A WMA, 2060.SE 23/03/2017, 16.80 WMA, 2060.SE 23/03/2017, 15.46 WMA, 2060.SE 23/03/2017,7.5 13.99 17/10/2013 - 01/06/2017 (RIY) Price SAR 29.2 26.7 25 20 14.9 11 MACD, 2060.SE 23/03/2017, 0.71, 0.89 RSI, 2060.SE 23/03/2017, 54.644 20 16.80 16.70 15 16.70 15.46 10 13.99 5 Auto 0.89 0.71 Value SAR Auto Value 54.644 SAR Auto OBV, 2060.SE 23/03/2017, 6.101B Vol, 2060.SE 23/03/2017, 3.661M 6.101B Value SAR Auto Volume 3.661M Auto RSI 54.644 MACD 0.89 ROC 3.661 M10 16.80 M50 15.45 M100 14.00 S1 14.90 S2 11.00 S3 7.50 R1 20.00 R2 26.70 R3 29.20 N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Technical Analysis 3
4. KAMCO Research March - 2017 Definitions Technical Analysis : Aims to identify the direction of prices and reveal any indication of possible changes as soon as possible, so it can be used as much as possible in making buying and selling decisions in the most appropriate time in order to minimize risk and maximize profits. Trend: The general direction of a market or of the price of an asset. Resistance: A chart point or range that caps an increase in the level of a stock or index over a period of time. Support: The price level which, historically, a stock has had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock. Breakout: A signal that prices are beginning to trend, either upward or downward. Bull: An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry is likely to rise. Bear: An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry is likely to decline. Channel: is two parallel trend lines either rising or declining. Consolidation Area: is a sideways movement in prices that interrupts or reverse a trend. Moving Average (MA): The most common applications of MAs are to identify the trend direction and to determine support and resistance levels. MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence): A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. Relative Strength Index: A technical momentum indicator (ranges from 0 to 100) that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. Overbought: A situation in which the price of a security has risen to such a degree that an oscillator has reached its upper bound. This is generally interpreted as a sign that the price of the asset is becoming overvalued and may experience a pullback. Oversold: A situation in which the price of a security has fallen to such a degree that an oscillator has reached its upper bound. This is generally interpreted as a sign that the price of the asset is becoming undervalued and may represent a buying opportunity for investors. Fibonacci: A term refers to areas of support or resistance and to help identify strategic places for transactions to be placed, target prices or stop losses. On Balance Volume (OBV): is a simple running total of up day (added) and down day (subtracted) volume. If OBV is moving with price, it confirms the current trend. Divergences between OBV and price indicates the price may be due for a reversal. Technical Analysis 4
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6. KAMCO Investment Company - K .S.C. (Public) Al-Shaheed Tower, Khalid Bin Al-Waleed Street- Sharq P.O. BOX : 28873, Safat 13149, State of Kuwait Tel: (+965) 1852626 Fax: (+965) 22492395 Email : Kamcoird@kamconline.com Website : http://www.kamconline.com KAMCO Investment Company