State Bank of Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - November 2017

Transcription

1. Inflation Monitor November 2017 State Bank of Pakistan Statistics & DWH Department
2. ISSN 1992-8327 (print) ISSN 1992-8335 (online) The analysis in this document is based on data   Provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), for domestic inflation analysis Retrieved from IMF & World Bank websites for global inflation analysis http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/inflation_Monitor ii
3. Contents 1 . Inflation in Brief ………………………………………………… 2. City- wise Inflation …………………………………….................... 3. Income Group- wise Inflation …………………………………………………. 4. Weighted Contribution ………………………………………………… 5. Inflation Diffusion Index ………………………………………………… 6. Domestic Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 7. Global Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 8. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI ………………………………………………... Annexure A Table A1 CPI Inflation by Groups Table A2 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) of CPI Basket Table A3 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A3.1 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM) Table A3.2 Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A3.3 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY) Table A3.4 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY) Table A4 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items Table A5 City-wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups Table A6 City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A7 Income Group-wise Inflation Table A8 SPI Item-wise Price Movements Table A9 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY)-WPI Items Table A10 Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Table A11 Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Table A12 Price Indices Table A13 International Commodity Prices/ Indices Table A14 CPI Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted Table A15 CPI Food Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted Table A16 CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Table A17 CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Table A18 CPI Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted Table A19 CPI Food Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted Figure A1 Figure A2 Figure A3 Figure A4 Annexure B CPI Non-food Inflation Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities Group- wise/ overall Inflation Diffusion Index and Respective/ Overall YoY Inflation Technical Notes Page 1 7 8 10 11 12 12 13 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29-30 31-32 33 34 35 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-47
4. Inflation Monitor , November 2017 Team  Naseer Ahmad Additional Director naseer.ahmed@sbp.org.pk  Muhammad Abdus Salam Joint Director muhammad.abdussalam@sbp.org.pk iv
5. State Bank of Pakistan Review Inflation in Brief 1 . Headline CPI inflation (2007-08=100) is recorded at level of 4.0 percent on year-on-year basis in November 2017 as compared to 3.8 percent in the previous month and corresponding month of last year. 2. CPI inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at level of 0.4 percent in November 2017 as compared to 0.7 percent in the previous month and 0.2 percent during corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted monthon-month CPI inflation is recorded at 0.51 percent in November 2017 compared to 0.56 percent in the previous month. 3. Core inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis is recorded at 4.2 percent in November 2017 as compared to 4.0 percent in the previous month and 3.8 percent during corresponding month of last year. 4. On month-on-month basis, the Core inflation (trimmed) is recorded at 0.3 percent in November 2017 as compared to 0.6 percent in the previous month and 0.2 percent during corresponding month of last year. 5. Non-food, non-energy inflation measured by CPI Core (NFNE) on year-onyear basis is recorded at 5.4 percent in November 2017 as compared to 5.3 percent in the previous month and corresponding month of last year. 6. Core NFNE inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 0.3 percent in November 2017 as compared to 0.9 percent in the previous month. Core NFNE inflation was 0.2 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 7. WPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at 2.9 percent in November 2017 as compared to 2.3 percent in the previous month and 2.6 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 1
6. Inflation Monitor , November 2017 8. WPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 0.4 percent in November 2017 as compared to 0.6 percent in the previous month. It was -0.2 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 9. SPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at 2.5 percent in November 2017 as compared to 2.3 percent in the previous month. It was 0.6 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 10. SPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 0.5 percent in November 2017 as compared to 0.8 percent in the previous month. It was 0.3 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 1.1 A New Measure of Core Inflation A new method of permanently excluding relatively volatile commodities from CPI basket in Pakistan has been developed by SBP. This is achieved by making use of trimming approach on past data on monthly CPI changes to isolate a Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) as a new measure of core inflation. This method ensures inclusion of both food and non-food commodities that show persistent price behavior in Pakistan (see technical notes for details). Developments in core inflation measured by RSC- CPI for the month of November 2017 are described below:  Core RSC inflation on year-on-year basis is recorded at 4.3 percent in November 2017 and remained at level of previous month and 5.0 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 11. Core RSC inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at 0.2 percent in November 2017 compared to 0.8 percent in the previous month and remained at level during corresponding month of last year. 2
7. State Bank of Pakistan Monthly CPI , WPI and SPI data is summarized in the following table. Table 1.1 Inflation Trends (percent) (Base 2007- 08 = 100) CPI Inflation Period General Core Inflation Nonfood Food NFNE* YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM Trimmed WPI Inflation RSC** YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM SPI*** Inflation YoY MoM Nov-16 3.8 0.2 3.3 0.2 4.1 0.2 5.3 0.2 3.8 0.2 5.0 0.2 2.6 -0.2 0.6 0.3 Dec-16 3.7 -0.7 3.0 -1.9 4.2 0.2 5.2 0.1 3.7 0.1 4.7 0.2 3.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 Jan-17 3.7 0.2 2.6 -1.0 4.4 1.0 5.4 1.1 3.8 0.6 4.9 0.9 4.2 0.5 0.4 -0.6 Feb-17 4.2 0.3 3.7 0.3 4.6 0.3 5.3 0.2 4.1 0.2 4.9 0.2 5.3 0.5 1.6 0.4 Mar-17 4.9 0.8 5.0 1.9 4.9 0.1 5.2 0.1 4.5 0.2 5.0 0.2 6.4 0.7 3.9 2.0 Apr-17 4.8 1.4 4.4 1.7 5.1 1.2 5.5 1.3 4.8 0.8 5.3 1.1 6.0 0.9 2.9 -0.7 May-17 5.0 0.0 4.9 -0.2 5.1 0.2 5.5 0.2 4.8 0.2 5.3 0.3 5.2 -0.2 2.9 -0.7 Jun-17 3.9 -0.4 2.4 -1.1 5.0 0.1 5.5 0.1 4.2 0.0 4.5 -0.4 3.3 -0.5 1.9 0.1 Jul-17 2.9 0.3 -0.1 0.0 5.1 0.6 5.6 0.7 4.0 0.4 4.4 0.4 0.7 -0.2 0.2 -0.6 Aug-17 3.4 0.2 1.2 0.4 5.0 0.1 5.5 0.1 4.2 0.1 4.3 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 Sep-17 3.9 0.6 2.4 1.3 4.9 0.2 5.4 0.1 4.1 0.1 4.2 0.1 1.6 0.1 2.2 1.6 Oct-17 3.8 0.7 2.2 0.6 4.9 0.8 5.3 0.9 4.0 0.6 4.3 0.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.8 Nov-17 4.0 0.4 2.4 0.4 5.1 0.4 5.4 0.3 4.2 0.3 4.3 0.2 2.9 0.4 2.5 0.5 * NFNE is Non-food non-energy ** Relatively Stable Component of CPI *** SPI for all income groups combined 3
8. 4 1 0 -1 -5 -3 Nov-17 5 10 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 Jan-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 YoY Oct-17 f : SPI 3 Sep-17 e: WPI -5 Aug-17 10 -3 Feb-17 b: CPI Food Jul-17 -5 Jun-17 -1 May-17 0 May-17 1 Apr-17 5 Mar-17 3 Apr-17 10 Mar-17 c: NFNE Feb-17 -3 Feb-17 -5 Dec-16 -1 Jan-17 1 Jan-17 0 Nov-16 3 Dec-16 5 Nov-16 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 a: CPI Dec-16 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 10 Nov-16 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Inflation Monitor, November 2017 Fig 1.1: Summary of Price Inflation 10 MoM 2 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -3 d: 20% Trimmed Mean 2 10 3 2 0 5 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 2 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -3
9. 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 e : SPI May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-17 Sep-17 Jul-17 May-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 YoY Mar-17 Jul-17 5 Jun-17 5 Jan-17 10 Sep-16 c: 20% Trimmed Mean Nov-16 10 Jul-16 15 Mar-16 d: WPI Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Jul-16 Jun-16 May-16 Apr-16 Mar-16 Feb-16 Jan-16 Dec-15 Nov-15 15 May-16 b: NFNE Jan-16 15 Nov-15 Nov-17 Sep-17 Jul-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Nov-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 May-16 Mar-16 Jan-16 Nov-15 State Bank of Pakistan Fig 1.2:Movements in Price Indices (percent) a: CPI 12mma 10 5 0 -5 5
10. 6 d : WPI 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 Nov-17 4 Aug-17 -4 Feb-17 -4 May-17 -2 Nov-16 -2 Aug-16 0 May-16 0 Feb-16 2 Nov-15 2 Aug-15 4 May-15 b: NFNE Feb-15 4 Nov-14 Nov-17 Aug-17 May-17 Feb-17 Nov-16 Aug-16 May-16 Feb-16 Nov-15 Aug-15 May-15 Feb-15 Nov-14 Nov-17 Sep-17 Jul-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Nov-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 May-16 Mar-16 Jan-16 Nov-15 Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Inflation Monitor, November 2017 Fig 1.3:Movements in Price Indices -MoM ( percent) 4 a: CPI 2 0 -2 -4 c: 20% Trimmed Mean e: SPI
11. State Bank of Pakistan Fig 1 .4: Trends in Consumer Price Inflation b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 10 8 220 Percent 210 6 4 200 2 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 c: Inflation Build-up over June 2016-17 May June April March January February December October 2015-16 November September July May 0 June April March January February December November October September July August 190 August Consumer Price Index (2007-08=100). a: Consumer Price Index 230 2017-18 MoM Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rates 1.0 10 0.8 Percent 8 0.6 0.4 6 0.2 4 0.0 -0.2 2 -0.4 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2016-17 June May April March February January December November October September July August June -0.6 May April March February January December November October September July August 0 2017-18 2. City wise Inflation CPI Inflation on year-on-year basis in federal and provincial capitals of Pakistan showed mixed trend during November 2017. Among these five cities, the lowest inflation was observed in Karachi at 2.4 percent while the highest inflation was observed in Lahore at 6.2 percent (Table A6 of annexure-A). 7
12. Inflation Monitor , November 2017 Table 2.1 City-wise Inflation of Selected Cities (percent) Nov-16 Oct-17 Nov-17 MoM 0.2 YoY 3.8 MoM 0.7 YoY 3.8 MoM 0.4 YoY 4.0 Islamabad -0.1 3.9 1.6 4.8 0.5 5.4 Karachi 0.5 2.9 0.1 2.5 0.4 2.4 Lahore 0.1 2.0 1.2 5.3 1.0 6.2 Peshawar 0.0 0.9 1.6 3.6 0.7 4.3 Quetta 0.1 3.0 0.6 3.1 0.9 3.9 Overall CPI 3. Income Group wise Inflation Income group-wise data shows that income group above Rs. 35,000 witnessed higher inflation as compared to other quintiles as well as overall CPI during November 2017 in General, Food and Non-food groups. The income groups (Up to Rs. 8, 000) observed lowest inflation in general CPI and food groups; and income groups (Rs. 8,001- 12,000) observed lowest inflation in non-food groups among income groups during the month of November 2017 (Table A7 of annexure-A). Table 3.1 Income Group- wise Inflation (YoY) (percent) General Income Groups 8 Food Non-food Nov-16 Oct-17 Nov-17 Nov-16 Oct-17 Nov-17 Nov-16 Oct-17 Nov-17 All Groups Combined 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.3 2.2 2.4 4.1 4.9 5.1 Up to Rs. 8,000 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.8 1.9 1.9 4.3 4.8 4.8 Rs. 8,001- 12,000 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.0 2.0 4.1 4.7 4.7 Rs. 12,001- 18,000 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.2 1.9 2.0 4.0 4.7 4.8 Rs. 18,001- 35,000 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.5 1.9 2.0 3.8 4.7 4.8 Above Rs. 35,000 4.0 4.3 4.5 3.5 2.7 3.0 4.3 5.1 5.3
13. Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 -2 Aug-17 0 Jul-17 2 Jul-17 4 Jun-17 6 Jun-17 c : CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY) May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Upto Rs. 8,000 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 All Groups combined May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 State Bank of Pakistan Fig 3.1: Income Group- wise Inflation a: CPI Overall Inflation (YoY) 6 Above Rs. 35,000 4 2 0 -2 b: CPI Food Inflation (YoY) 6 4 2 0 -2 9
14. Inflation Monitor , November 2017 4. Weighted Contribution The weighted contribution of food group in the overall inflation marginally increased to 25.04 percent during November 2017 from 24.31 percent in previous month. It was 36.64 percent in November 2016. The weighted contribution of non-food group decreased to 74.96 percent in November 2017 from 75.69 percent in previous month. Table 4.1 Weighted Contribution to CPI Inflation (YoY) Period 10 Food Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & Other Fuel Transport Education Nov-16 36.64 9.16 33.91 -5.95 12.22 Others 14.02 Dec-16 33.90 9.91 35.29 -5.45 12.65 13.70 Jan-17 29.56 9.82 35.77 -4.98 12.73 17.10 Feb-17 35.54 8.29 30.79 0.59 10.97 13.82 Mar-17 41.86 6.08 26.25 5.34 9.03 11.44 Apr-17 37.84 5.94 28.43 5.11 11.07 11.60 May-17 40.46 6.15 27.25 4.96 9.55 11.63 Jun-17 24.92 8.04 34.43 5.77 11.93 14.92 Jul-17 -1.32 11.08 48.14 6.37 16.42 19.31 Aug-17 15.23 9.58 41.22 4.54 13.48 15.94 Sep-17 26.02 8.46 36.50 4.83 9.28 14.91 Oct-17 24.31 8.25 34.17 5.96 13.05 14.27 Nov-17 25.04 7.95 32.53 6.73 13.57 14.18
15. State Bank of Pakistan 5 . Inflation Diffusion Index Table 5.1 Inflation Diffusion Index - based on MoM change Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 General 41.1 33.5 32.3 38.0 28.5 41.6 35.3 22.4 36.8 26.8 33.1 44.6 37.7 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 28.2 17.9 10.5 35.1 25.7 40.4 27.1 5.3 28.7 17.5 17.4 46.1 17.1 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Clothing & Footwear 100.0 83.3 66.7 100.0 33.3 100.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 -50.0 0.0 50.0 33.3 57.6 66.1 45.8 27.1 25.4 45.8 54.2 47.5 52.5 49.2 42.4 44.1 59.3 Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels 41.7 38.9 41.7 22.2 0.0 41.7 19.4 13.9 55.6 27.8 19.4 41.7 30.6 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc 53.6 47.8 49.3 62.3 44.9 56.5 73.9 42.0 63.8 47.8 62.3 60.9 66.7 46.2 46.2 17.9 33.3 38.5 38.5 17.9 7.7 30.8 20.5 33.3 25.6 33.3 7.0 0.0 30.2 30.2 11.6 11.6 11.6 16.3 16.3 16.3 20.9 34.9 25.6 50.0 25.0 16.7 25.0 50.0 50.0 16.7 33.3 16.7 0.0 16.7 25.0 25.0 25.6 23.1 15.4 30.8 23.1 17.9 12.8 10.3 20.5 23.1 30.8 17.9 20.5 43.8 0.0 18.8 6.3 12.5 37.5 6.3 12.5 18.8 6.3 0.0 50.0 50.0 33.3 50.0 50.0 66.7 83.3 83.3 66.7 66.7 33.3 0.0 83.3 100.0 33.3 71.4 40.0 77.1 60.0 45.7 57.1 57.1 40.0 37.1 37.1 60.0 68.6 60.0 45.6 37.6 39.1 37.6 28.1 40.2 38.5 28.4 42.3 33.4 38.2 43.2 45.0 Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous NFNE See annexure B (Technical Notes) for the definition of Inflation Diffusion Index. 11
16. Inflation Monitor , November 2017 6. Domestic Commodity Prices Table 6.1 Inflation in Domestic CPI Food Commodities (percent) Nov-16 Oct-17 Sr. No Item YoY MoM YoY MoM Unit 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Wheat Wheat Flour Bag Rice Basmati Sup. Qlty. Pulse Masoor (Washed) Pulse Moong (Washed) Pulse Mash (Washed) Pulse Gram Vegetable Ghee (Loose) Sugar Refined Milk Fresh (Unboiled) Tea- Tapal Danedar Beef With Bone Av. Qlty. Mutton Av. Qlty. Chicken Farm Broiler (Live) Eggs Farm Potatoes Onion Tomatoes Ginger Garlic 10 Kg 10 Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Ltr 200 Gm Kg Kg Kg Doz Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Nov-17 YoY MoM 0.39 0.58 -2.40 1.51 -1.38 1.64 -2.09 0.91 -1.98 1.45 -0.53 2.40 1.07 -0.11 13.06 0.57 13.77 0.51 4.40 -0.29 -18.59 0.08 -20.49 -2.62 -7.19 -1.48 -18.02 -2.04 -20.28 -4.19 5.70 -3.98 -26.82 -5.11 -27.79 -5.25 39.95 7.28 -21.58 0.06 -28.40 -2.06 4.02 0.41 3.76 0.30 3.43 0.08 22.32 3.85 -21.17 -1.11 -25.60 -1.98 4.06 0.28 3.95 0.38 3.66 0.00 -2.22 0.20 10.42 0.89 10.20 0.00 3.74 0.56 6.68 0.38 6.23 0.14 4.97 0.71 9.05 0.38 9.23 0.86 0.12 -3.77 -16.68 0.38 -11.72 1.96 20.12 23.21 6.72 2.03 12.94 30.39 26.06 21.14 12.16 2.25 -2.18 5.66 -55.45 -5.66 178.60 1.90 187.01 -2.81 -38.88 -14.63 70.98 31.42 107.51 3.61 -10.26 -0.26 25.38 2.39 19.65 -4.82 69.66 1.58 -39.01 -6.29 -44.38 -7.36 7. Global Commodity Prices Table 7.1 Changes in Major Global Indices (percent)* Item/ Group Overall Food Metals Energy Agricultural Raw Material Cotton Jun-16 YoY -18.1 4.7 -18.1 -27.2 -10.3 -3.5 May-17 MoM 6.0 3.8 -3.5 10.9 -0.1 1.4 YoY 17.4 1.1 18.1 28.9 5.8 25.6 *The latest prices for the month of July, 2017 onwards are not available till date 12 Jun-17 MoM -0.1 -1.6 -6.4 2.5 -1.4 0.3 YoY 8.2 1.2 17.5 11.0 3.5 26.1 MoM -2.3 3.9 -3.9 -4.4 -2.3 1.8 Source: IMF
17. State Bank of Pakistan 8 . Seasonal Adjustment in CPI Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the seasonal effects from a time series after decomposing it into seasonal, trend, cycle and irregular components. The purpose is to identify the different components of the time series and thus provide a better understanding of its underlying behavior. Seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred for analyzing general price trends in the economy because they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year. Various statistical methods can be used to decompose a time series into its constituent components. The State Bank of Pakistan uses X-12- ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method for this purpose. The changes in consumer prices are normally reported in terms of year-on-year and month-on-month basis. Seasonal adjustment is particularly useful for analyzing month-on-month changes. The monthly data series of Consumer Price Index (CPI) from July 2008 to November 2017 has been used for seasonal adjustment analysis. The seasonal analysis is carried out without taking trading-day or Islamic calendar month’s effects. Figure 8.1 reveals that seasonality in CPI has been increasing over the period of last four years. Average seasonal factors reveal strong seasonality during the calendar year. There is an upward seasonality during the months from July to November and downward seasonality in the remaining months of the year. Upward and downward seasonality is above and below the trend line respectively. It is important to note that seasonal factors are estimates based on present and past experience and that future data may not necessarily show the same pattern of seasonal factors. 13
18. Inflation Monitor , November 2017 Fig. 8.1 Seasonal Factors of CPI Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Seasonal Factors of CPI 103 103 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 99 98 98 97 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 97 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 99.5 99.6 98.9 99.1 100. 99.8 99.7 Note: Data Available in Annex Table 16. Fig. 8.2 Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Note: Data Available in Annex Table 17. 14 Nov-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 May-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 97 Nov-16 97 Jul-16 98 Sep-16 98 May-16 99 Jan-16 99 Mar-16 100 Nov-15 100 Jul-15 101 Sep-15 101 May-15 102 Jan-15 102 Mar-15 103 Nov-14 103 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100.8 101.3 101.3 101.5 101.5 99.28 98.97 97.75 98.54 99.86 99.51 99.54
19. State Bank of Pakistan Figures 8 .3 & 8.4 show that seasonally adjusted series are relatively smoother than the original series due to the removal of the seasonal variations. The trend follows the long-term movement in original series, and is smoother than the original series because some irregular fluctuations have been removed. Fig. 8.3 Seasonal Plots of CPI Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI 250 FY14 FY15 Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI FY16 FY17 FY18 250 240 240 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 150 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 8.4 Seasonal Plots of CPI (Food) Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI Food Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI Food 250 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 250 240 240 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 150 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 15
20. Inflation Monitor , November 2017 Fig. 8.5 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Seasonally adjusted CPI for November 2017 stood at 219.13 against 220.42 in original series showing a decrease of 1.29 on account of adjustment of upward seasonality in November 2017. MoM % Changes in CPI Original Series 3 Seasonally Adjusted Series 2 1 0 -1 -2 Nov-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 May-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Feb-17 -3 Nov-16 Seasonally adjusted CPI food group for November 2017 stood at 237.23 against 240.79 in original series showing a decrease of 3.56 on account of adjustment of upward seasonality in November 2017. MoM Annualize % Change in CPI Original Series 40 Seasonally Adjusted Series 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Nov-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 May-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 -30 Nov-16 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted CPI series stood at 0.51% reflecting an increase during November 2017 over previous month and an increase of 0.37% in original series. Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted Fig. 8.6 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Food MoM % Changes in CPI Food CPI food group series stood at 0.29% reflecting an Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series 3 increase during November 2017 over previous month 2 and an increase of 0.37% in original series. 1 0 -2 Nov-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 May-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series 20 10 0 -10 -20 Nov-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 May-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 -30 Nov-16 16 Apr-17 MoM Annualize % Change in CPI Food 30 The most recent annual rate of inflation is usually indicated by annualizing the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate. Annualized rate of CPI inflation in November 2017 (corresponding to the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate) is 6.24 percent. Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 -3 Nov-16 It is important to note that inflation rates should be analyzed on the basis of seasonally adjusted rates. This is especially needed for inflation rates on month-onmonth basis. -1