Login Get Started
HelpDesk
 Embed  Download
  of  

or
Sign in to continue reading...

State Bank of Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - February 2018

IM Research
By IM Research
6 years ago
State Bank of Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - February 2018

Organisation Tags (1)


Create FREE account or Login to add your comment
Comments (0)


Transcription

  1. Inflation Monitor February 2018 State Bank of Pakistan Statistics & DWH Department
  2. ISSN 1992-8327 (print) ISSN 1992-8335 (online) The analysis in this document is based on data   Provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), for domestic inflation analysis Retrieved from IMF & World Bank websites for global inflation analysis http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/inflation_Monitor ii
  3. Contents 1 . Inflation in Brief ………………………………………………… 2. City- wise Inflation …………………………………….................... 3. Income Group- wise Inflation …………………………………………………. 4. Weighted Contribution ………………………………………………… 5. Inflation Diffusion Index ………………………………………………… 6. Domestic Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 7. Global Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 8. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI ………………………………………………... Annexure A Table A1 CPI Inflation by Groups Table A2 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) of CPI Basket Table A3 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A3.1 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM) Table A3.2 Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A3.3 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY) Table A3.4 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY) Table A4 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items Table A5 City-wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups Table A6 City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A7 Income Group-wise Inflation Table A8 SPI Item-wise Price Movements Table A9 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY)-WPI Items Table A10 Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Table A11 Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Table A12 Price Indices Table A13 International Commodity Prices/ Indices Table A14 CPI Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted Table A15 CPI Food Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted Table A16 CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Table A17 CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Table A18 CPI Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted Table A19 CPI Food Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted Figure A1 Figure A2 Figure A3 Figure A4 Annexure B CPI Non-food Inflation Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities Group- wise/ overall Inflation Diffusion Index and Respective/ Overall YoY Inflation Technical Notes Page 1 7 8 10 11 12 12 13 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29-30 31-32 33 34 35 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-47
  4. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Team  Naseer Ahmad Additional Director naseer.ahmed@sbp.org.pk  Muhammad Abdus Salam Joint Director muhammad.abdussalam@sbp.org.pk iv
  5. State Bank of Pakistan Review Inflation in Brief 1 . Headline CPI inflation (2007-08=100) is recorded at level of 3.8 percent on year-on-year basis in February 2018 as compared to 4.4 percent in the previous month and 4.2 percent during corresponding month of last year. 2. CPI inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at level of -0.3 percent in February 2018 as compared to 0.03 percent in the previous month and 0.3 percent during corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted monthon-month CPI inflation is recorded at 0.28 percent in February 2018 compared to 0.13 percent in the previous month. 3. Core inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis is recorded at 4.3 percent in February 2018 as compared to 4.6 percent in the previous month and 4.1 percent during corresponding month of last year. 4. On month-on-month basis, the Core inflation (trimmed) is recorded at 0.1 percent in February 2018 as compared to 0.6 percent in the previous month and 0.2 percent during corresponding month of last year. 5. Non-food, non-energy inflation measured by CPI Core (NFNE) on year-onyear basis is recorded at 5.2 percent in February 2018 and remained at level in the previous month and 5.3 percent during corresponding month of last year. 6. Core NFNE inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 0.2 percent in February 2018 as compared to 0.8 percent in the previous month. Core NFNE inflation was at level in the corresponding month of last year. 7. WPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at 4.1 percent in February 2018 as compared to 4.7 percent in the previous month and 5.3 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 1
  6. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 8. WPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at -0.1 percent in February 2018 as compared to 1.8 percent in the previous month. It was 0.5 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 9. SPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at 1.3 percent in February 2018 as compared to 2.6 percent in the previous month. It was 1.6 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 10. SPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at -0.9 percent in February 2018 as compared to -0.7 percent in the previous month. It was 0.4 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 1.1 A New Measure of Core Inflation A new method of permanently excluding relatively volatile commodities from CPI basket in Pakistan has been developed by SBP. This is achieved by making use of trimming approach on past data on monthly CPI changes to isolate a Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) as a new measure of core inflation. This method ensures inclusion of both food and non-food commodities that show persistent price behavior in Pakistan (see technical notes for details). Developments in core inflation measured by RSC- CPI for the month of February 2018 are described below: 11. Core RSC inflation on year-on-year basis is recorded at 4.1 percent in February 2018 compared to 4.0 percent in the previous month and 4.9 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 12. Core RSC inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at 0.2 percent in February 2018 compared to 0.6 percent in the previous month and remained at level in the corresponding month of last year. 2
  7. State Bank of Pakistan Monthly CPI , WPI and SPI data is summarized in the following table. Table 1.1 Inflation Trends (percent) (Base 2007- 08 = 100) CPI Inflation Period General Core Inflation Nonfood Food NFNE* YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM Trimmed WPI Inflation RSC** YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM SPI*** Inflation YoY MoM Feb-17 4.2 0.3 3.7 0.3 4.6 0.3 5.3 0.2 4.1 0.2 4.9 0.2 5.3 0.5 1.6 0.4 Mar-17 4.9 0.8 5.0 1.9 4.9 0.1 5.2 0.1 4.5 0.2 5.0 0.2 6.4 0.7 3.9 2.0 Apr-17 4.8 1.4 4.4 1.7 5.1 1.2 5.5 1.3 4.8 0.8 5.3 1.1 6.0 0.9 2.9 -0.7 May-17 5.0 0.0 4.9 -0.2 5.1 0.2 5.5 0.2 4.8 0.2 5.3 0.3 5.2 -0.2 2.9 -0.7 Jun-17 3.9 -0.4 2.4 -1.1 5.0 0.1 5.5 0.1 4.2 0.0 4.5 -0.4 3.3 -0.5 1.9 0.1 Jul-17 2.9 0.3 -0.1 0.0 5.1 0.6 5.6 0.7 4.0 0.4 4.4 0.4 0.7 -0.2 0.2 -0.6 Aug-17 3.4 0.2 1.2 0.4 5.0 0.1 5.5 0.1 4.2 0.1 4.3 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 Sep-17 3.9 0.6 2.4 1.3 4.9 0.2 5.4 0.1 4.1 0.1 4.2 0.1 1.6 0.1 2.2 1.6 Oct-17 3.8 0.7 2.2 0.6 4.9 0.8 5.3 0.9 4.0 0.6 4.3 0.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.8 Nov-17 4.0 0.4 2.4 0.4 5.1 0.4 5.4 0.3 4.2 0.3 4.3 0.2 2.9 0.4 2.5 0.5 Dec-17 4.6 -0.1 3.8 -0.6 5.1 0.2 5.5 0.2 4.7 0.2 4.3 0.1 3.4 0.4 2.7 -0.3 Jan-18 4.4 0.0 3.7 -1.0 4.9 0.8 5.2 0.8 4.6 0.6 4.0 0.6 4.7 1.8 2.6 -0.7 Feb-18 3.8 -0.3 2.2 -1.1 4.9 0.2 5.2 0.2 4.3 0.1 4.1 0.2 4.1 -0.1 1.3 -0.9 * NFNE is Non-food non-energy ** Relatively Stable Component of CPI *** SPI for all income groups combined 3
  8. 4 Feb-17 1 0 -1 -5 -3 Feb-18 5 10 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Apr-17 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 YoY Jan-18 f : SPI 3 Dec-17 e: WPI -5 Nov-17 10 -3 May-17 b: CPI Food Oct-17 -5 Sep-17 -1 Aug-17 0 Aug-17 1 Jul-17 5 Jun-17 3 Jul-17 10 Jun-17 c: NFNE Apr-17 -3 May-17 -5 Apr-17 -1 May-17 1 Mar-17 0 Feb-17 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 5 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 3 Mar-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 a: CPI Mar-17 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 10 Feb-17 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Inflation Monitor, February 2018 Fig 1.1: Summary of Price Inflation 10 MoM 2 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -3 d: 20% Trimmed Mean 2 10 3 2 0 5 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 2 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -3
  9. 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 d : WPI e: SPI Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Jul-16 Jun-16 May-16 Apr-16 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 YoY Jun-17 Oct-17 5 Sep-17 5 Apr-17 c: 20% Trimmed Mean Feb-17 10 Dec-16 10 Oct-16 15 Jun-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 15 Aug-16 b: NFNE Apr-16 15 Feb-16 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 Jun-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 State Bank of Pakistan Fig 1.2:Movements in Price Indices (percent) a: CPI 12mma 10 5 0 -5 5
  10. 6 Feb-15 d : WPI 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 Feb-18 4 Nov-17 -4 Aug-17 -4 May-17 -2 Feb-17 -2 Nov-16 0 Aug-16 0 May-16 2 Feb-16 2 Aug-15 4 Nov-15 b: NFNE May-15 4 Feb-15 Feb-18 Nov-17 Aug-17 May-17 Feb-17 Nov-16 Aug-16 May-16 Feb-16 Nov-15 Aug-15 May-15 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 Jun-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Oct-15 Aug-15 Jun-15 Apr-15 Feb-15 Inflation Monitor, February 2018 Fig 1.3:Movements in Price Indices -MoM ( percent) 4 a: CPI 2 0 -2 -4 c: 20% Trimmed Mean e: SPI
  11. State Bank of Pakistan Fig 1 .4: Trends in Consumer Price Inflation b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 10 8 220 Percent 210 6 4 200 2 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 c: Inflation Build-up over June 2016-17 May June April March January February December October 2015-16 November September July May 0 June April March January February December November October September July August 190 August Consumer Price Index (2007-08=100). a: Consumer Price Index 230 2017-18 MoM Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rates 1.0 10 0.8 Percent 8 0.6 0.4 6 0.2 4 0.0 -0.2 2 -0.4 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2016-17 June May April March February January December November October September July August June -0.6 May April March February January December November October September July August 0 2017-18 2. City wise Inflation CPI Inflation on year-on-year basis in federal and provincial capitals of Pakistan showed mixed trend during February 2018. Among these five cities, the lowest inflation was observed in Karachi at 2.9 percent while the highest inflation was observed in Quetta at 5.0 percent (Table A6 of annexure-A). 7
  12. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table 2.1 City-wise Inflation of Selected Cities (percent) Feb-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 MoM 0.3 YoY 4.2 MoM 0.0 YoY 4.4 MoM -0.3 YoY 3.8 Islamabad 0.7 5.1 -0.2 5.3 -0.1 4.4 Karachi 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.9 0.1 2.9 Lahore 0.3 3.6 -0.6 5.1 -0.4 4.4 Peshawar 0.4 2.2 0.1 3.9 -0.3 3.2 Quetta -0.3 2.2 1.2 5.9 -1.2 5.0 Overall CPI 3. Income Group wise Inflation Income group-wise data shows that income group above Rs. 35,000 witnessed higher inflation as compared to other quintiles as well as overall CPI during February 2018 in General, Food and Non-food groups. The income groups (Up to Rs. 8, 000) observed lowest inflation in general CPI, food groups; and income groups (Up to Rs. 8, 000 & Rs. 8,001- 12,000) observed lowest inflation in non-food groups among income groups during the month of February 2018 (Table A7 of annexure-A). Table 3.1 Income Group- wise Inflation (YoY) (percent) General Income Groups 8 Feb-17 Food Non-food Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 All Groups Combined 4.2 4.4 3.8 3.7 3.7 2.2 4.6 4.9 4.9 Up to Rs. 8,000 3.7 3.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 1.3 4.7 4.3 4.3 Rs. 8,001- 12,000 3.9 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 1.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 Rs. 12,001- 18,000 4.0 3.9 3.1 3.5 3.3 1.7 4.4 4.5 4.4 Rs. 18,001- 35,000 4.1 4.1 3.4 3.8 3.4 1.8 4.4 4.6 4.6 Above Rs. 35,000 4.4 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.3 3.1 4.7 5.2 5.2
  13. Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 -2 Nov-17 0 Oct-17 2 Oct-17 4 Sep-17 6 Sep-17 c : CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY) Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Upto Rs. 8,000 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 All Groups combined Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 State Bank of Pakistan Fig 3.1: Income Group- wise Inflation a: CPI Overall Inflation (YoY) 6 Above Rs. 35,000 4 2 0 -2 b: CPI Food Inflation (YoY) 6 4 2 0 -2 9
  14. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 4. Weighted Contribution The weighted contribution of food group in the overall inflation decreased to 23.85 percent during February 2018 from 34.02 percent in previous month. It was 35.54 percent in February 2017. The weighted contribution of non-food group increased to 76.15 percent in February 2018 from 65.98 percent in previous month. Table 4.1 Weighted Contribution to CPI Inflation (YoY) Period 10 Food Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & Other Fuel Transport Education Feb-17 35.54 8.29 30.79 0.59 10.97 Others 13.82 Mar-17 41.86 6.08 26.25 5.34 9.03 11.44 Apr-17 37.84 5.94 28.43 5.11 11.07 11.60 May-17 40.46 6.15 27.25 4.96 9.55 11.63 Jun-17 24.92 8.04 34.43 5.77 11.93 14.92 Jul-17 -1.32 11.08 48.14 6.37 16.42 19.31 Aug-17 15.23 9.58 41.22 4.54 13.48 15.94 Sep-17 26.02 8.46 36.50 4.83 9.28 14.91 Oct-17 24.31 8.25 34.17 5.96 13.05 14.27 Nov-17 25.04 7.95 32.53 6.73 13.57 14.18 Dec-17 34.01 6.68 28.47 5.73 11.85 13.26 Jan-18 34.02 8.17 25.57 7.58 12.23 12.43 Feb-18 23.85 10.07 29.89 8.71 13.92 13.56
  15. State Bank of Pakistan 5 . Inflation Diffusion Index Table 5.1 Inflation Diffusion Index - based on MoM change Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 General 38.0 28.5 41.6 35.3 22.4 36.8 26.8 33.1 44.6 37.7 39.2 48.9 32.5 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 35.1 25.7 40.4 27.1 5.3 28.7 17.5 17.4 46.1 17.1 25.0 42.1 19.3 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Clothing & Footwear 100.0 33.3 100.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 -50.0 0.0 50.0 33.3 50.0 33.3 33.3 27.1 25.4 45.8 54.2 47.5 52.5 49.2 42.4 44.1 59.3 78.0 78.0 44.1 Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels 22.2 0.0 41.7 19.4 13.9 55.6 27.8 19.4 41.7 30.6 41.7 44.4 30.6 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc 62.3 44.9 56.5 73.9 42.0 63.8 47.8 62.3 60.9 66.7 43.5 75.4 62.3 33.3 38.5 38.5 17.9 7.7 30.8 20.5 33.3 25.6 33.3 35.9 43.6 33.3 30.2 11.6 11.6 11.6 16.3 16.3 16.3 20.9 34.9 25.6 20.9 32.6 23.3 25.0 50.0 50.0 16.7 33.3 16.7 0.0 16.7 25.0 25.0 8.3 41.7 41.7 30.8 23.1 17.9 12.8 10.3 20.5 23.1 30.8 17.9 20.5 20.5 23.1 23.1 6.3 12.5 37.5 6.3 12.5 18.8 6.3 0.0 50.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7 83.3 83.3 66.7 66.7 33.3 0.0 83.3 100.0 33.3 66.7 66.7 33.3 60.0 45.7 57.1 57.1 40.0 37.1 37.1 60.0 68.6 60.0 77.1 54.3 31.4 37.6 28.1 40.2 38.5 28.4 42.3 33.4 38.2 43.2 45.0 43.2 51.5 36.7 Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous NFNE See annexure B (Technical Notes) for the definition of Inflation Diffusion Index. 11
  16. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 6. Domestic Commodity Prices Table 6.1 Inflation in Domestic CPI Food Commodities (percent) Feb-17 Sr. No Item Wheat Wheat Flour Bag Rice Basmati Sup. Qlty. Pulse Masoor (Washed) Pulse Moong (Washed) Pulse Mash (Washed) Pulse Gram Vegetable Ghee (Loose) Sugar Refined Milk Fresh (Unboiled) Tapal Danedar Tea 200 Gm Beef With Bone Av.Qlty. Mutton Av.Qlty. Chicken Farm Broiler (Live) Eggs Farm Potatoes Onion Tomatoes Ginger Garlic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Jan-18 Feb-18 Unit YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM 10 Kg 10 Kg Kg Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Ltr Pkt Kg Kg Kg Doz Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg -0.64 0.52 -0.36 1.40 -1.05 -0.17 -1.87 -0.14 -1.16 -1.01 -0.86 0.17 4.34 2.46 17.11 3.29 15.52 1.06 -5.04 -4.18 -18.79 0.00 -16.36 -1.31 -14.57 -2.42 -16.30 2.29 -13.87 0.41 -16.96 -6.16 -25.73 -1.56 -23.47 -3.30 19.17 -12.44 -27.03 0.42 -17.22 -0.65 6.93 0.58 1.55 0.34 0.98 0.02 1.44 -2.47 -16.97 -1.10 -17.80 -3.44 3.60 0.16 4.12 0.42 4.11 0.16 -7.49 1.28 9.75 0.41 10.24 1.73 2.39 0.23 6.79 0.37 7.01 0.43 4.71 0.43 11.15 1.71 11.09 0.37 11.40 7.91 36.49 9.93 20.15 -5.02 13.29 -8.74 -5.67 -10.71 -6.99 -10.01 31.91 -2.26 29.32 -25.14 7.49 -18.76 -29.93 6.31 107.18 -9.45 45.59 -25.29 10.17 28.98 56.17 -37.23 -3.77 -20.52 -3.11 -1.31 20.22 -1.51 18.71 -2.55 32.43 1.32 -43.17 3.54 -43.95 -0.09 7. Global Commodity Prices Table 7.1 Changes in Major Global Indices (percent) Item/ Group Feb-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Food YoY 11.0 MoM -0.2 YoY -1.9 MoM 2.7 YoY 0.4 MoM 2.2 Metals 28.6 3.5 22.7 5.3 18.4 -0.1 Energy 68.3 0.8 23.4 9.3 15.9 -5.4 9.2 -0.1 -2.7 2.8 -1.0 1.7 27.9 3.4 10.6 6.6 3.7 -3.1 Agricultural Cotton Source: World Bank 12
  17. State Bank of Pakistan 8 . Seasonal Adjustment in CPI Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the seasonal effects from a time series after decomposing it into seasonal, trend, cycle and irregular components. The purpose is to identify the different components of the time series and thus provide a better understanding of its underlying behavior. Seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred for analyzing general price trends in the economy because they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year. Various statistical methods can be used to decompose a time series into its constituent components. The State Bank of Pakistan uses X-12- ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method for this purpose. The changes in consumer prices are normally reported in terms of year-on-year and month-on-month basis. Seasonal adjustment is particularly useful for analyzing month-on-month changes. The monthly data series of Consumer Price Index (CPI) from July 2008 to February 2018 has been used for seasonal adjustment analysis. The seasonal analysis is carried out without taking trading-day or Islamic calendar month’s effects. Figure 8.1 reveals that seasonality in CPI has been increasing over the period of last four years. Average seasonal factors reveal strong seasonality during the calendar year. There is an upward seasonality during the months from July to November and downward seasonality in the remaining months of the year. Upward and downward seasonality is above and below the trend line respectively. It is important to note that seasonal factors are estimates based on present and past experience and that future data may not necessarily show the same pattern of seasonal factors. 13
  18. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Fig. 8.1 Seasonal Factors of CPI Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Seasonal Factors of CPI 103 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 99 98 98 97 97 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 103 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 99.6 99.6 98.9 99.1 100. 99.8 99.7 Note: Data Available in Annex Table 16. Fig. 8.2 Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Seasonal Factors of CPI Food 103 103 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 99 98 98 14 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Feb-17 Note: Data Available in Annex Table 17. Apr-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 Oct-15 Dec-15 Aug-15 Jun-15 Feb-15 97 Apr-15 97 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100.8 101.3 101.3 101.4 101.4 99.49 98.98 97.74 98.53 99.86 99.49 99.51
  19. State Bank of Pakistan Figures 8 .3 & 8.4 show that seasonally adjusted series are relatively smoother than the original series due to the removal of the seasonal variations. The trend follows the long-term movement in original series, and is smoother than the original series because some irregular fluctuations have been removed. Fig. 8.3 Seasonal Plots of CPI Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI 250 FY14 FY15 Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI FY16 FY17 FY18 250 240 240 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 150 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 8.4 Seasonal Plots of CPI (Food) Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI Food Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI Food 250 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 250 240 240 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 150 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 15
  20. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Fig. 8.5 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Seasonally adjusted CPI for February 2018 stood at 221.84 against 219.58 in original series showing an increase of 2.26 on account of adjustment of downward seasonality in February 2018. MoM % Changes in CPI Original Series 3 Seasonally Adjusted Series 2 1 0 -1 -2 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 -3 Mar-17 Seasonally adjusted CPI food group for February 2018 stood at 239.73 against 234.31 in original series showing an increase of 5.43 on account of adjustment of downward seasonality in February 2018. MoM Annualize % Change in CPI Original Series 40 Seasonally Adjusted Series 30 10 0 -10 -20 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 -30 Mar-17 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted CPI food group series stood at -0.01% reflecting a decrease during February 2018 over previous month and a decrease of -1.11% in original series. 20 Feb-17 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted CPI series stood at 0.28% reflecting an increase during February 2018 over previous month and decrease of 0.31% in original series. Fig. 8.6 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Food MoM % Changes in CPI Food Original Series 3 Seasonally Adjusted Series 2 1 0 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 -3 MoM Annualize % Change in CPI Food Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series Jan-18 Feb-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 May-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Mar-17 16 -2 Feb-17 The most recent annual rate of inflation is usually indicated by annualizing the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate. Annualized rate of CPI inflation in February 2018 (corresponding to the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate) is 3.43 percent. -1 Mar-17 It is important to note that inflation rates should be analyzed on the basis of seasonally adjusted rates. This is especially needed for inflation rates on monthon-month basis.
  21. State Bank of Pakistan Annexure A Table A1 : CPI Inflation by Groups (percent) Weights Feb-17 MoM change Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-17 YoY change Jan-18 Feb-18 I. Food Group Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Restaurant & Hotels 37.5 0.3 -1.0 -1.1 3.7 3.7 2.2 34.8 0.3 -1.2 -1.3 3.1 5.1 3.4 1.4 0.4 1.1 1.4 12.4 -18.2 -17.4 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 3.9 6.7 6.5 II. Non-Food Group 62.5 0.3 0.8 0.2 4.6 4.9 4.9 7.6 0.1 0.9 0.4 4.2 4.3 4.6 29.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 4.8 4.2 4.2 4.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 2.5 4.0 4.1 Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas &. other Fuels& Household Furnishing Equip. Maintenance etc Health 2.2 0.8 0.4 1.1 14.1 4.7 5.0 Transport 7.2 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 5.7 5.6 Communication 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.3 Recreation & Culture 2.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 Education 3.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.3 12.4 12.1 2.8 1.0 1.0 -0.2 4.7 7.2 5.9 100.0 0.3 0.0 -0.3 4.2 4.4 3.8 Miscellaneous Headline Table A2: Distribution of Price changes (YoY) of CPI basket No. of items in each inflation range Groups I. Food Group Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Restaurant & Hotels II. Non-Food Group Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels % changes Feb-18 2.2 3.4 -17.4 6.5 4.9 4.6 4.2 Subdued Moderate Double digit Decrease or increase increase (5% increase Total number no change (>0% but but less than (10% or of items (0% or less) <5%) 10%) more) Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-17 Feb-18 125 126 25 30 57 46 20 24 23 26 113 114 25 27 54 43 14 22 20 22 6 6 0 3 0 1 3 0 3 2 6 6 0 0 3 2 3 2 0 2 348 348 85 75 163 163 81 84 19 26 59 59 7 9 34 27 17 21 1 2 36 36 12 14 10 4 13 15 1 3 4.1 69 69 9 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc 5.0 39 39 6 Health 5.6 43 43 25 Transport 1.3 12 12 3 Communication 0.9 39 39 19 Recreation & Culture 12.1 16 16 1 Education 5.9 35 35 3 Miscellaneous 3.8 473 474 110 Overall Note: Prices of 13 seasonal items were not reported during the month. 2 48 46 12 19 0 2 7 23 4 14 0 2 105 17 13 4 15 4 18 220 24 13 4 21 3 21 209 8 5 4 3 7 12 101 6 3 2 2 5 11 108 8 0 1 2 4 2 42 2 4 2 2 8 1 52 17
  22. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table A3: Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) in February 2018 Top 15 Contributors YoY Change Weighted Items/ Contributors Weights Feb -17 Feb -18 Contribution Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 House Rent 21.81 6.62 5.43 27.40 Education 3.94 11.33 12.13 13.92 Milk Fresh 6.68 3.49 4.16 9.27 Meat 2.43 3.18 8.42 6.83 Motor Fuel 3.03 1.29 12.22 6.72 Chicken 1.36 11.40 20.15 5.64 Fresh Fruits 1.86 10.19 10.77 5.63 Onion 0.52 -29.93 45.59 5.15 Rice 1.58 7.28 14.01 4.63 Tailoring 0.88 7.10 8.45 2.88 Ready Made Food 1.23 3.95 6.52 2.69 Personal Equipments 0.84 5.88 8.23 2.54 Cotton Cloth 1.73 4.58 4.46 2.17 Personal Care 1.49 4.43 5.17 2.13 Ready Made Garments 0.97 4.26 6.31 Total 50.38 1.83 99.45 Bottom 15 Contributors Cigarettes A.1Ranked by Weighted Contribution 2 Sugar 3 Pulse Mash (Washed) 4 Pulse Gram 5 Pulse Masoor 6 Pulse Moong 7 Eggs 8 Besan 9 Fresh Vegetables 10 Text Books 11 Tomatoes 12 Wheat Flour 13 Gram Whole 14 Wheat 15 Gur Total 18 1.39 12.51 -19.82 -13.09 1.04 1.44 -17.80 -5.24 0.21 -16.96 -23.46 -1.77 0.24 19.17 -17.22 -1.62 0.27 -4.83 -16.39 -1.07 0.23 -14.56 -13.88 -1.03 0.46 13.28 -6.99 -0.91 0.15 20.08 -12.43 -0.72 1.71 16.21 -1.31 -0.62 0.57 0.62 -1.51 -0.31 0.43 10.17 -3.77 -0.26 4.16 -1.80 -0.15 -0.16 0.16 32.36 -2.54 -0.15 0.35 -0.64 -1.05 -0.09 0.02 0.06 -8.24 11.40 -0.06 -27.10
  23. State Bank of Pakistan Table A3 .1: Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM) in February 2018 Top 15 Contributors MoM Change Items/ Contributors Weights Jan-18 Feb-18 Weighted Contribution Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh Fruits 1.86 4.62 5.83 37.19 Motor Fuel 3.03 3.26 2.10 14.78 Betel Leaves & Nuts 0.02 74.01 53.06 8.68 Tea 0.84 -0.53 1.74 5.99 Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee 0.59 0.60 1.93 4.84 Milk Fresh 6.68 0.41 0.16 4.45 Meat 2.43 0.84 0.41 4.19 Transport Services 2.70 0.61 0.50 3.80 Tailoring 0.88 1.32 0.87 3.73 Wheat Flour 4.16 -0.09 0.23 2.96 Rice 1.58 2.97 0.60 2.64 Dopatta 0.44 0.55 1.42 2.27 Cotton Cloth 1.73 0.45 0.38 2.23 Drug Medicine 1.27 0.18 0.57 1.95 Bakery & Confectionary 1.16 0.42 0.48 Total 29.38 1.81 101.50 Bottom 15 Contributors Onionby Weighted Contribution A.1Ranked 2 Fresh Vegetables 3 Potatoes 4 Chicken 5 Tomatoes 6 Eggs 7 Sugar 8 Pulse Mash (Washed) 9 Personal Equipments 10 Pulse Masoor 11 Gram Whole 12 Woolen Readymade Garments 13 Besan 14 Pulse Gram 15 Personal Care Total 0.52 -9.45 -25.29 -64.93 1.71 -13.91 -8.10 -47.77 0.46 -25.14 -18.76 -26.93 1.36 9.93 -5.02 -20.71 0.43 -37.23 -20.52 -19.70 0.46 -10.71 -10.02 -15.69 1.04 -1.10 -3.44 -10.05 0.21 -1.55 -3.30 -2.30 0.84 2.05 -0.43 -1.69 0.27 0.01 -1.63 -1.05 0.16 -0.63 -1.45 -0.99 0.40 -0.15 -0.51 -0.78 0.15 -1.78 -1.03 -0.61 0.24 0.42 -0.65 -0.60 1.49 0.53 -0.10 9.75 -0.50 -214.29 19
  24. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table A3.2: Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) in February 2018 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Feb -17 Feb -18 Weighted Contribution A. Ranked by Percentage Change Betel Leaves & Nuts A.1 Ranked by Weighted Contribution Onion 2 Kerosene Oil 3 Chicken 4 Rice 5 Motor Fuel 6 Education 7 Fresh Fruits 8 Cleaning & Laundering 9 10 Tailoring 11 Meat 12 Construction Wage Rate 13 Personal Equipments 14 Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee 15 Potatoes Total 0.02 0.52 0.01 1.36 1.58 3.03 3.94 1.86 0.21 0.88 2.43 0.33 0.84 0.59 0.46 18.08 6.11 -29.93 4.99 11.40 7.28 1.29 11.33 10.19 3.98 7.10 3.18 4.68 5.88 8.77 31.90 210.13 45.59 24.06 20.15 14.01 12.22 12.13 10.77 8.85 8.45 8.42 8.27 8.23 8.19 7.49 1.46 5.15 0.03 5.64 4.63 6.72 13.92 5.63 0.61 2.88 6.83 0.81 2.54 1.66 0.70 59.21 21.81 6.68 4.40 4.16 3.94 3.15 3.03 2.70 2.43 2.07 1.86 1.75 1.73 1.71 1.58 63.03 6.62 3.49 0.00 -1.80 11.33 0.63 1.29 -1.22 3.18 4.09 10.19 2.89 4.58 16.21 7.28 5.43 4.16 0.00 -0.15 12.13 1.19 12.22 1.30 8.42 1.43 10.77 1.92 4.46 -1.31 14.01 27.40 9.27 0.00 -0.16 13.92 0.60 6.72 0.85 6.83 0.52 5.63 0.57 2.17 -0.62 4.63 78.35 B. Ranked by Weights House Rent 1 A.2 Ranked by Weighted Contribution Milk Fresh Electricity 3 Wheat Flour 4 Education 5 Communication & Apparatus 6 Motor Fuel 7 Transport Services 8 Meat 9 10 Vegetable Ghee 11 Fresh Fruits 12 Cooking Oil 13 Cotton Cloth 14 Fresh Vegetables 15 Rice Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in CPI, which is 3.8 percent in February 2018. 20
  25. State Bank of Pakistan Table A3 .3: Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY) in February 2018 Items/ Contributors A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Milk Fresh 1 Meat 2 Chicken 3 Fresh Fruits 4 Onion 5 Rice 6 Ready Made Food 7 Tea 8 Betel Leaves & Nuts 9 10 Beverages Total Weights YoY Change Feb -17 Feb -18 Weighted Contribution 6.68 2.43 1.36 1.86 0.52 1.58 1.23 0.84 0.02 1.20 17.73 3.49 3.18 11.40 10.19 -29.93 7.28 3.95 -4.43 6.11 1.51 4.16 8.42 20.15 10.77 45.59 14.01 6.52 6.47 210.13 3.61 9.27 6.83 5.64 5.63 5.15 4.63 2.69 1.82 1.46 1.18 44.30 0.02 0.52 1.36 1.58 1.86 2.43 0.46 1.23 0.84 0.04 10.35 6.11 -29.93 11.40 7.28 10.19 3.18 31.90 3.95 -4.43 4.70 210.13 45.59 20.15 14.01 10.77 8.42 7.49 6.52 6.47 5.84 1.46 5.15 5.64 4.63 5.63 6.83 0.70 2.69 1.82 0.10 34.65 B. Ranked by Percentage Change Betel Leaves & Nuts 1 A.2 Ranked Onionby Weighted Contribution Chicken 3 Rice 4 Fresh Fruits 5 Meat 6 Potatoes 7 Ready Made Food 8 Tea 9 10 Honey Total C. Ranked by Weights Milk Fresh 1 A.2 Ranked Weighted Contribution Wheatby Flour Meat 3 Vegetable Ghee 4 Fresh Fruits 5 Cooking Oil 6 Fresh Vegetables 7 Rice 8 Cigarettes 9 10 Chicken 6.68 3.49 4.16 9.27 4.16 -1.80 -0.15 -0.16 2.43 3.18 8.42 6.83 2.07 4.09 1.43 0.52 1.86 10.19 10.77 5.63 1.75 2.89 1.92 0.57 1.71 16.21 -1.31 -0.62 1.58 7.28 14.01 4.63 1.39 12.51 -19.82 -13.09 1.36 11.40 20.15 5.64 Total 25.01 19.24 Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in CPI Food, which is 2.2 percent in February, 2018. 21
  26. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table A3.4: Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY) in February 2018 Items/ Contributors A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution House Rent 1 Education 2 Motor Fuel 3 Tailoring 4 Personal Equipments 5 Cotton Cloth 6 Personal Care 7 Ready Made Garments 8 Household Servent 9 10 Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee Total Weights YoY Change Feb -17 Feb -18 Weighted Contribution 21.81 3.94 3.03 0.88 0.84 1.73 1.49 0.97 1.04 0.59 36.34 6.62 11.33 1.29 7.10 5.88 4.58 4.43 4.26 2.24 8.77 5.43 12.13 12.22 8.45 8.23 4.46 5.17 6.31 5.15 8.19 27.40 13.92 6.72 2.88 2.54 2.17 2.13 1.83 1.67 1.66 62.93 0.01 3.03 3.94 0.21 0.88 0.33 0.84 0.59 0.32 0.97 11.13 4.99 1.29 11.33 3.98 7.10 4.68 5.88 8.77 4.45 4.26 24.06 12.22 12.13 8.85 8.45 8.27 8.23 8.19 6.59 6.31 0.03 6.72 13.92 0.61 2.88 0.81 2.54 1.66 0.51 1.83 31.51 21.81 4.40 3.94 3.15 3.03 2.70 1.73 1.58 1.55 1.49 45.39 6.62 0.00 11.33 0.63 1.29 -1.22 4.58 0.00 0.89 4.43 5.43 0.00 12.13 1.19 12.22 1.30 4.46 0.00 0.55 5.17 27.40 0.00 13.92 0.60 6.72 0.85 2.17 0.00 0.18 2.13 53.98 B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Kerosene Oil Motor Fuel Education Cleaning & Laundering Tailoring Construction Wage Rate Personal Equipments Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee Medical Test Ready Made Garments Total C. Ranked by Weights 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 House Rent Electricity Education Communication & Apparatus Motor Fuel Transport Services Cotton Cloth Gas Footware Personal Care Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in CPI Non-food, which is 4.9 percent in February, 2018. 22
  27. State Bank of Pakistan Table A4 : Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items: February 2018 Decrease or no change Health Transport Communic ation Education Recreation & Culture Restaura nt & Hotels Miscellaneo us Subdued increase (Greater than 0% but less than 5%) Moderate increase Double digit increase (10% or more) (5% but less than 10%) Garlic, Peas, Pulse Mash (Washed), Sugar Refined, Pulse Gram, Pulse Masoor (Whole). Beans (Lal Lobia), Tomato Ketchup Ahmed/Mitchells, Ice Cream Walls, Mineral Water Nestle 1.5 Litre, Curd. Cigarettes Capstan 20,S, Cigarettes Morven Gold 20,S, Cigarettes K-20,S. Cigarettes Gold Leaf 20,S. Secondhand Sweater For Men, Gents Shoe, Art 1109 Servis, Child Shoe Power Lite Bata, Sports Shoes, Ladies Spoung Chappal Bata, Ladies Sandal Bata. Lungi/Dhoti(Cotton) Avg.Qlty, Shirting Av.Qlty., Foot Wear Local (Male), Dopatta Cotton Av. Qlty, Pant Cloth Wash & Wear Av.Qlty, Tropical Suiting Law.Pur. Cement (Local), Bajree, Elect.Charges Upto 50 Units, Elect.Charges 01 100 Units, Elect.Charges Above 1000 Units. Sand (Black Pit Sand), Timber Mason (Raj) Wage Rate, Kerosene Oil, Iron Bar (M.S. Bar) 1/2", Shesham Log, Firewood Unskilled Labour Wage Rat, Carpanter Wage Rate. Whole, Bricks (New) Ist Class. Electician Wage Rate(P/Pnt), Synthetic Enemal Ici, Electician Wage Rate(P/Day). Furnishing & Household Housing, Water, Equip. Elect, Gas & Maintenance other Fuels etc Clothing & Footwear Alcoholic Food & NonBeverages Alcoholic & Beverages Tobacco Groups Washing Powder 1000 Grm Gas Burner Double, Pedestal (Express), Washing Powder Fan 22" Super Qlty, (Wheel/ Bonus). Towel(3'X2') Av. Qlty, Presure Cooker 4 Ltr., Air Cooler Super Asia. Calcium Syrup Sandoz, Septran Tablets, Thermometer Phenergan Syrup 120 Ml., China, Trisil Tab., Jouhar Betnesol Eye Drops, Joshanda, Sugar Test Betnovate-N Ointment 5 (Random/Fasting), Ecg Gm, Sancos Syrup (50 Ml.). Charges, Saniplast (1 Putty). Ventolin Tab., Bandage Tyre Car Tab. W/O 2Mg., Tube, Burnol Disprin Car Suzuki 800Cotton Cc (W/O. Ac), Cream 30 Gm, 4", O.R.S. Plateform Ticket, Bus Fare 2" Car- Toyota 1300(Nimcol), Cc, Cycle Lederplex Syrup, Cac. 1000 Outside City (Non A/C), Overhauling Charges, Motor Tab, Hydryllin Syrup 120 Ml., Bus Fare Min (Within City), Cycle Service Charges, Auto Daonil Tab. 5 Mg., Bus Fare Max (Within City). Rickshaw Fare, Cng. Polyfax Ointment, Galxos-D (450 Minibus Fare Max.Within Postal Envelope Domestic, Eye Mobile Set Gm), Amoxil CapsoleAv.Qlty, 250 City, Minibus Fare Local Telephone Charges Nokia/Sony/Ericsson Brufen Tabs 200-Mg., Min.Within City,Charges Train Fare Mg., Call, Telephone Mobile Cell Charges, Postal Vaporub/ Balm, Ear Eco. > 500 Km., Train Fare Vicks Outside City. Registration Charges. Eco. Urdu1-100 Book Km., Class Train Ix/X Fare Drops Weekly(Cardisporine), "Mag", Daily Calpol 60 Photostate Ml., FlagylPaper Tab.70 Eco. 101-500Urdu K, Train Fare Syrup (T.B.Board), Book "Dawn", 200 Panadol Tab. Ist Slp.V>(T.B.Board), 500, Train Fare Class Gm, Mg., Weekly "Akhbar-ERenitec A/C Slp.Book 1-100, Train Fare Extra/Plain, English Class V1, Jahan", Fountain PenTab. 5 Mg., A/C Slp.101-500, Maths Book ClassTrain Ix Or Fare X. Hero/Wings/China, Daily Ist Slp.101-500, Train Fare "Nawa-E-Waqt". A/C Slp > 500K, Car Tax Mba Tuition Fee, Coaching For 800 Cc To 1300 Cc, Air Charges For Class Xi/ Xii Fare Economy Class., Science Group, I.T. Tuition Suzuki Fare Min.Within Fees. City, Train Fare Ist Slp. 1100, Suzuki Fare Maximum Tea Prepared (Ordinary), Wityin City, Taxi 4 Seater Bread Tandoori St. Size. Fare, Motorcycle Yamaha 100 Cc, Full Tonga Charges, Hair Removing Cream (EuShampoo Sunsilk/Pantene 100 Ml, Perfume Med.Size Cream), Beauty Parlour Hair Medora/Broche. Style Charges, Toothpowder Dentonic 90 Gms, Chillies Powd.National 200 Gm, Butter Local Packed, Pastry Av.Qlty., Potatoes, Bananas, Kinnu, Rooh Afza. Brinjal, Chillies Green, Onion, Coconut Dry Av.Qlty., Turnip, Chicken Farm Broiler (Live), Carrot, Cocumber (Kheera), Cuminseed White National, Cauliflower, Ginger, Apple. Betel Nuts, Betel Leaves. Washing Ch. (KamizFrock W/Wear Girls, Brassier Av.Qlty. Shalwar), Dry Cleaning Suit Coat Pant, Tailoring AwamiSuit (Male), Tailoring Charges Pant (Men), Gloves Av.Qlty, Tailoring Suit (Female). Thermos Starvac 1 Ltr, Single Bed Without Foam, Toilet Paper Roll (R.Petal), Chair Shesham Wood, Water Set Jug+6 Glasses. Glycrine Small Bottle, Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee, Urine Test (Dr) Charges, Blood Test (Cp) Charges, Gripe-Water Woodwards, Entox Tab. Car Suzuki 1000 Cc, Car Honda Civic 1500 Cc, Car Service Charges. Tea Set Pak. China Wear 21 Pcs, Boot Polish Cherry/Kiwi 50 Ml. Dettol (Medium), X-Ray (Chest) Charges. Bus Fare Outside City (A/C), High Speed Diesel Hsd, Petrol Super, Gas Cylinder S.Size (L.P.G). Internet Charges, Fax Charges Telephone Set Av. Qlty, T.C.S. Ch. Min.Within (Local). Zone. Pencil Goldfish/Deer, Ball Pen Cinema A/C High Class, Cinema Non-A/C High (Local). Class. Pvt School Fee Eng.Med (Classs-V), Pvt School Fee Eng.Med (Class-I), Coaching Fee For Class Ix/ X. Govt. University Fee Msc/ Ma, Govt. Engg. Coll. Fee Ist Year, Govt. College Fee Ist. Year, Govt. College Fee 4Th. Year, Govt. Med. College Fee Mbbs Ist Year. Chicken Biryani Full/Double, Cooked Mutton (Av. Hotel), Cooked Beef (Av. Cooked Dal (Av. Hotel). Hotel). Gold Tezabi 24 Ct, Artificial Jewellary Set, Purse Ladies (Leather) Av. Qlty, Toilet Soap Lux 95 Gms. Toilet Soap Lifebouy 140 Gms. 23
  28. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table A5: City- wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups, February 2018 General MoM YoY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Rawalpindi Islamabad Lahore Gujranwala Sialkot Faisalabad Multan Sargodha Bahawalpur Karachi Hyderabad Sukkur Larkana Peshawar Bannu Quetta Khuzdar 1.1 1.7 2.4 0.6 4.5 5.3 1.5 2.4 1.6 2.1 1.9 0.8 2.1 1.6 2.1 4.9 5.3 1.1 1.7 2.4 0.6 4.5 5.3 1.5 2.4 1.6 2.1 1.9 0.8 2.1 1.6 2.1 4.9 5.3 General MoM YoY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Rawalpindi Islamabad Lahore Gujranwala Sialkot Faisalabad Multan Sargodha Bahawalpur Karachi Hyderabad Sukkur Larkana Peshawar Bannu Quetta Khuzdar 1.6 3.1 3.3 1.2 6.0 6.1 2.3 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.6 2.2 2.9 4.8 6.8 1.6 3.1 3.3 1.2 6.0 6.1 2.3 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.6 2.2 2.9 4.8 6.8 General MoM YoY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 24 Rawalpindi Islamabad Lahore Gujranwala Sialkot Faisalabad Multan Sargodha Bahawalpur Karachi Hyderabad Sukkur Larkana Peshawar Bannu Quetta Khuzdar 2.8 4.6 5.3 1.7 6.6 7.6 3.4 4.1 4.9 3.3 4.3 4.0 4.5 4.6 3.0 5.3 8.1 2.8 4.6 5.3 1.7 6.6 7.6 3.4 4.1 4.9 3.3 4.3 4.0 4.5 4.6 3.0 5.3 8.1 Up to Rs: 8000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY -1.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 2.3 1.4 -0.1 1.9 0.0 1.7 0.8 -0.3 1.8 -0.4 1.1 4.4 3.5 -1.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 2.3 1.4 -0.1 1.9 0.0 1.7 0.8 -0.3 1.8 -0.4 1.1 4.4 3.5 3.8 3.9 5.5 1.7 7.4 9.9 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.5 2.1 2.4 3.9 3.4 5.5 7.5 3.8 3.9 5.5 1.7 7.4 9.9 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.5 2.1 2.4 3.9 3.4 5.5 7.5 Rs 12001-18000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY -0.7 0.0 0.5 -0.1 3.7 1.4 0.5 2.2 0.7 2.2 1.0 0.8 2.9 -0.4 1.5 3.9 3.9 -0.7 0.0 0.5 -0.1 3.7 1.4 0.5 2.2 0.7 2.2 1.0 0.8 2.9 -0.4 1.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 6.1 6.4 2.5 8.3 10.6 4.0 3.5 4.3 2.4 4.3 5.0 4.2 4.4 4.2 5.7 9.8 3.6 6.1 6.4 2.5 8.3 10.6 4.0 3.5 4.3 2.4 4.3 5.0 4.2 4.4 4.2 5.7 9.8 Above Rs 35000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.1 4.6 3.3 2.1 3.0 4.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 5.2 1.4 1.6 4.8 6.0 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.1 4.6 3.3 2.1 3.0 4.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 5.2 1.4 1.6 4.8 6.0 3.6 5.9 7.2 2.0 7.6 9.8 4.1 4.6 5.1 3.3 4.9 4.5 4.2 6.2 3.7 5.6 9.2 3.6 5.9 7.2 2.0 7.6 9.8 4.1 4.6 5.1 3.3 4.9 4.5 4.2 6.2 3.7 5.6 9.2 General MoM YoY 1.4 2.9 2.9 0.9 5.2 5.6 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.7 3.0 1.7 2.5 4.7 6.2 1.4 2.9 2.9 0.9 5.2 5.6 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.7 3.0 1.7 2.5 4.7 6.2 General MoM YoY 1.9 3.3 4.0 1.4 6.0 6.5 2.5 3.5 3.5 2.3 3.1 4.0 4.3 2.5 3.0 5.0 6.7 1.9 3.3 4.0 1.4 6.0 6.5 2.5 3.5 3.5 2.3 3.1 4.0 4.3 2.5 3.0 5.0 6.7 General MoM YoY 2.4 4.4 4.4 1.3 6.1 6.5 2.7 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.2 2.8 5.0 6.3 2.4 4.4 4.4 1.3 6.1 6.5 2.7 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.2 2.8 5.0 6.3 Rs 8001- 12000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY -0.8 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 2.9 1.3 0.3 2.4 0.4 2.2 1.0 0.3 2.8 -0.3 1.7 4.2 3.7 -0.8 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 2.9 1.3 0.3 2.4 0.4 2.2 1.0 0.3 2.8 -0.3 1.7 4.2 3.7 3.6 6.4 5.8 2.0 7.7 10.1 3.6 2.7 3.9 2.4 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.4 5.2 8.8 3.6 6.4 5.8 2.0 7.7 10.1 3.6 2.7 3.9 2.4 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.4 5.2 8.8 Rs 18001-35000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY -0.4 0.1 0.6 0.1 3.5 1.4 0.7 2.4 0.8 2.2 1.8 1.4 3.9 -0.1 1.4 4.0 3.4 -0.4 0.1 0.6 0.1 3.5 1.4 0.7 2.4 0.8 2.2 1.8 1.4 3.9 -0.1 1.4 4.0 3.4 Combined Food MoM YoY 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.2 3.8 1.9 1.0 2.4 1.5 2.8 1.8 1.2 3.1 0.2 1.4 4.3 3.4 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.2 3.8 1.9 1.0 2.4 1.5 2.8 1.8 1.2 3.1 0.2 1.4 4.3 3.4 3.7 5.8 7.2 2.5 8.1 10.8 4.0 4.3 5.5 2.4 4.4 6.1 4.6 4.5 4.2 5.7 9.5 3.7 5.8 7.2 2.5 8.1 10.8 4.0 4.3 5.5 2.4 4.4 6.1 4.6 4.5 4.2 5.7 9.5 Non-Food MoM YoY 3.7 6.3 7.0 2.1 7.7 9.7 3.9 3.8 4.5 3.0 4.3 4.3 3.8 5.3 3.7 5.4 8.3 3.7 6.3 7.0 2.1 7.7 9.7 3.9 3.8 4.5 3.0 4.3 4.3 3.8 5.3 3.7 5.4 8.3
  29. State Bank of Pakistan Table A6 : City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY) February, 2018 High inflation cities City Mithi Low inflation cities General Food Non-food 11.8 11.3 12.1 City Mianwali General Food Non-food 3.7 -1.4 6.7 Gawadar 6.9 3.7 9.1 Mardan 3.6 3.6 3.7 Faisalabad 6.5 1.9 9.7 Jhang 3.6 0.0 5.8 Khuzdar 6.3 3.4 8.3 Larkana 3.5 3.1 3.8 Turbat 6.2 3.5 7.7 D. G. Khan 3.4 2.7 3.9 Sialkot 6.1 3.8 7.7 Bahawalpur 3.4 1.5 4.5 Vehari 5.9 1.9 8.8 Sargodha 3.3 2.4 3.8 D. I. Khan 5.6 4.5 6.3 Peshawar 3.2 0.2 5.3 Quetta 5.0 4.3 5.4 Nawabshah 3.2 4.2 2.6 R. Y. Khan 4.8 2.4 6.4 Hyderabad 3.2 1.8 4.3 Bahawalnagar 4.6 1.9 6.3 Sahiwal 3.2 0.1 5.0 Islamabad 4.4 1.8 6.3 Sukkur 3.0 1.2 4.3 Lahore 4.4 1.1 7.0 Loralai 2.9 0.8 4.2 D. M. Jamali 4.0 4.5 3.7 Karachi 2.9 2.8 3.0 Mingora 2.8 1.1 3.9 Bannu 2.8 1.4 3.7 Multan 2.7 1.0 3.9 Attock 2.6 -0.1 4.4 Rawalpindi 2.4 0.4 3.7 Mirpukhas 2.3 2.5 2.2 Jhelum 2.3 -0.8 4.4 Dadu 2.2 1.5 2.7 Abbottabad 1.7 2.0 1.5 Gujranwala 1.3 0.2 2.1 Wazirabad 0.8 -2.2 3.0 Muzaffargarh 0.6 -1.8 2.2 Note: High inflation refers to equal or above average inflation, and low inflation refers to below average 25
  30. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table A7: Income Group-wise Inflation ( percent) MoM Feb-17 YoY Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 3.7 3.6 2.7 Food 0.2 -1.6 -1.5 2.9 3.0 1.3 Non-food 0.2 0.7 0.2 4.7 4.3 4.3 General 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 3.9 3.8 2.9 Food 0.3 -1.4 -1.3 3.2 3.3 1.6 Non-food 0.2 0.7 0.2 4.5 4.3 4.3 General 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 4.0 3.9 3.1 Food 0.3 -1.3 -1.3 3.5 3.3 1.7 Non-food 0.2 0.7 0.2 4.4 4.5 4.4 General 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 4.1 4.1 3.4 Food 0.3 -1.1 -1.1 3.8 3.4 1.8 Non-food 0.2 0.7 0.2 4.4 4.6 4.6 General 0.3 0.3 -0.1 4.4 4.9 4.5 Food 0.4 -0.7 -0.9 4.0 4.3 3.1 Non-food 0.3 0.8 0.2 4.7 5.2 5.2 General 0.3 0.0 -0.3 4.2 4.4 3.8 Food 0.3 -1.0 -1.1 3.7 3.7 2.2 Non-food 0.3 0.8 0.2 4.6 4.9 4.9 Up to Rs. 8000 General Rs. 8001- 12000 Rs. 12001- 18000 Rs. 18001- 35000 Above Rs. 35000 All income groups 26
  31. State Bank of Pakistan Table A8 : SPI Item-wise Price Movements Sr.No. Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Wheat Wheat Flour Bag Rice Basmati Broken Rice Irri-6/9 Bread Plain Med.Size (340-400 Gm.) Beef Mutton Chicken Live (Farm) Milk Fresh Curd Milk Powdered Nido Egg Hen (Farm) Mustard Oil Cooking Oil (Tin) Veg. Ghee (Tin) Veg.Ghee Loose Bananas Masoor Pulse Washed Moong Pulse Washed Mash Pulse Washed Gram Pulse Washed Potatoes Onions Tomatoes Sugar Gur Salt Powdered Loose (Lahori) Red Chillies Powder Loose Garlic Tea (Yellow Lable 200 Gm.) Cooked Beef Plate Cooked Dal Plate Tea Prepared (Sada) Cigarettes K-2 (20'S) Long Cloth (Coarse Latha) Shirting Lawn Georgette (Voil Printed) Sandal Gents Bata Chappal Spng.Bata (Gents) Sandal Ladies Bata Electric Charges 1-50 Gas Charges Upto 3.3719 Kerosene Firewood Energy Savor 14 Watt Washing Soap (200-250 Gm.) Match Box Petrol Diesel L.P.G.( 11 Kg Cylender.) Tele. Local Call Bath Soap Lifebouy (Standard) Maximum Median Minimum Unit 10Kg. 10Kg. Kg. Kg. Each Kg. Kg. Kg. Litr Kg. 500G Doz. Kg. 2.5Ltr 2.5Kg. Kg. Doz. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. 200Gm. Each Each Cup 20'S Mtr. Mtr. Mtr. Mtr. Pair Pair Pair Unit Mmbtu Litr 40Kg Each Cake Each Litr Litr Each Call Cake Prices Feb-18 341.6 385.9 73.5 52.3 42.6 348.5 739.7 165.4 82.5 98.8 383.1 101.0 184.1 469.1 462.1 145.5 77.3 118.3 118.1 154.9 117.0 27.0 43.0 36.7 51.5 78.6 11.1 257.8 172.0 184.1 103.5 58.3 21.2 50.8 214.0 171.1 255.8 126.6 699.0 179.1 502.4 2.0 128.7 109.1 633.0 169.6 25.9 2.2 85.5 96.8 1308.6 3.9 39.7 Percentage change YoY MoM -2.3 -0.3 14.8 5.8 3.5 6.3 11.6 22.4 2.5 4.6 1.8 -9.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.2 4.2 -11.9 -11.1 -21.5 -15.7 8.7 41.0 -7.7 -18.4 -8.0 3.8 -4.4 -44.2 3.0 11.6 2.4 2.9 -24.3 4.1 4.1 1.8 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 3.4 1.1 0.0 2.8 19.3 19.7 9.9 0.0 3.7 41.0 -0.2 -0.6 1.4 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 -6.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 -10.9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 9.7 -1.8 0.8 -2.1 -1.8 -18.1 -19.8 -15.6 -3.0 -4.0 0.0 -0.1 2.2 2.9 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 6.7 -5.3 0.0 -3.7 9.7 1.8 0.0 -44.2 -19.8 27
  32. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table A9: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: February 2018 Subdued increase (Greater Moderate increase Double digit increase than 0% but less than 5%) (5% but less than 10%) (10% or more) Other Transportable Goods Ores & Minerals, Food Products, Beverages and Tobacco, Agriculture Forestry except Metal Products, Electricity Gas & Textiles, Apparel and Leather Products & Fishery Products Machinery and Equipments Water Decrease or no change Pulses, Eggs, Cotton Seeds, Sugar Crops, Raw Animal Material/Wool, Wheat, Hides And Fur Skins,Raw. Fibre Crops, Vegetables, Milk From Bovine Animals, Other Oil Seeds, Sorghum/Jowar, Fish Live Fresh Or Chilled, Fuel Wood In Logs, Edible Roots/Potatos. Electrical Energy, Coal Not Aggiomerated. Natural Gas Liquified. Tobbaco Products, Sugar Refined, Other Cereal Flour, Leather With Out Hairs, Wheat Flour, Sugar Confectionary, Other Leather N.E.C, Nylon Yarn, Woolen Carpets, Footwears, Chocolate, Towels. Mineral Water, Blended Yarn, Woven Fabrics, Oil Cakes, Milk And Cream In Solid Form, Cotton Fabrics, Fruit Juices, Vegetable Oil Refined, Synthetic Carpets, Other Fabrics, Ready Made Garments, Hosiery Products, Silk And Reyon Fabrics, Vegetables & Fruit Juices, Bed Sheets, Beverages, Vegetable Ghee, Other Food Products. Quilts, Blankets, Coffee And Tea, Spices, Dairy Products N.E.C. Dried Fruits & Nuts, Cotton Yarn, Ice Cream, Processed Liquid Milk, Meat Of Animals. Cement, Insecticised, Coke, Dying Materials, Auto Tyres. Fertilizers, Matches, Bed Foams, Other Glass Articles, Mobil Oil, Hard Board, Pesticides, Medicines, Printing Paper, Glass Sheets, Bricks Blocks And Tiles, Paints & Varnishes, Ceramics And Sanitery, Plastic Products, Soaps & Detergent. Timber. Kerosine Oil, Diesel Oil, Furnace Oil, Motor Sprit, Chemicals. Metal Product Machinery & Equipment Groups Steel Products, Engines And Motors, Vacuum Pumps, Bicycles, Pig Iron, Concrate Mixer, Radio And Television, Tractors, Cultivators, Lathe Machines, Chuff Cutter, Air Conditioners. Motor Vehicales, Electrical Wires, Pipe Fittings, Lighting Equipments, Motor Cycles. Refrige,Wash& Sew Mach,Iron,Fan. Steel Bars & Sheets. 28 Millet/Bajra, Maize. Poultry, Stimulant And Spice Crops, Fresh Fruits, Dry Fruits, Rice, Unmanufactured Tobacco. Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride.
  33. State Bank of Pakistan Table A10 : Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Items and specification General Food & Non-Alcohalic Beverages. Wheat 1 Wheat Flour 2 Wheat Product 3 Besan 4 Rice 5 Cereals 6 Bakery & Confectionary 7 Nimco 8 Meat 9 Chicken 10 Fish 11 Milk Fresh 12 Milk Product 13 Milk Powder 14 Eggs 15 Mustard Oil 16 Cooking Oil 17 Vegetable Ghee 18 Dry Fruits 19 Fresh Fruits 20 Pulse Masoor 21 Pulse Moong 22 Pulse Mash (Washed) 23 Pulse Gram 24 Gram Whole 25 Beans 26 Potatoes 27 Onion 28 Tomatoes 29 Fresh Vegetables 30 Sugar 31 Gur 32 Honey 33 Sweet Meet 34 Beverages 35 Jam, Tomato Ketchup & Pickle 36 Condiments 37 Spices 38 Tea 39 Alcohalic Beverages, Tobacco Cigarettes 40 Betel Leaves & Nuts 41 Clothing & Footwear Cotton Cloth 42 Woolen Cloth 43 Ready Made Garments 44 Woolen Readymade Garments 45 Hosiery 46 Dopatta 47 Cleaning & Laundering 48 Weights 100.00 34.83 0.35 4.16 0.10 0.15 1.58 0.16 1.16 0.46 2.43 1.36 0.30 6.68 0.63 0.11 0.46 0.10 1.75 2.07 0.25 1.86 0.27 0.23 0.21 0.24 0.16 0.03 0.46 0.52 0.43 1.71 1.04 0.02 0.04 0.25 1.20 0.25 0.27 0.54 0.84 1.41 1.39 0.02 7.57 1.73 0.88 0.97 0.40 0.51 0.44 0.21 Feb-17 Index Jan-18 Feb-18 211.54 221.66 207.84 213.15 216.39 310.18 168.06 253.65 216.92 250.62 268.26 165.68 219.56 268.32 258.54 236.18 229.60 158.04 135.95 141.52 264.98 225.40 192.76 256.42 289.59 319.93 295.48 232.05 162.81 173.49 126.67 221.50 226.80 267.08 322.20 246.37 218.90 216.89 266.55 238.85 270.18 379.55 381.80 243.31 234.34 226.39 254.92 239.59 264.98 245.96 243.52 261.12 220.27 232.23 206.02 212.35 214.91 274.45 190.46 257.76 223.47 257.77 289.65 209.57 221.60 279.02 271.06 237.95 237.31 162.43 138.55 143.60 277.00 235.92 163.84 219.94 229.20 266.59 292.21 241.72 215.41 338.10 153.38 237.87 193.08 257.03 340.27 256.43 225.95 224.39 276.77 239.66 282.72 309.16 306.13 493.00 244.09 235.59 262.43 254.73 268.07 257.89 250.57 280.95 219.58 229.23 205.66 212.84 214.30 271.63 191.61 259.02 224.55 257.41 290.84 199.06 221.93 279.48 271.59 238.41 213.54 162.81 138.56 143.55 278.60 249.68 161.17 220.84 221.64 264.85 287.97 243.43 175.00 252.59 121.90 218.60 186.44 245.06 341.03 256.66 226.80 224.88 277.53 239.80 287.65 313.39 306.13 754.58 245.03 236.48 263.65 254.72 266.71 258.30 254.12 284.23 29
  34. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table A10: Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Items and specification Tailoring 49 Footware 50 Housing,Water,Elect,Gas & Other Fuel 51 House Rent 52 Construction Input Item 53 Construction Wage Rate 54 Water Supply 55 Electricity 56 Gas 57 Kerosene Oil 58 Fire Wood Whole Furnished H.Hold Equip.& Maint. Etc 59 Furniture 60 Household Textile 61 Household Equipment 62 Utensils 63 Plastic Products 64 Washing Soap & Detergent 65 Sewing Needle & Dry Cell 66 Household Servant 67 Marriage Hall Charges Health 68 Drug Medicine 69 Medical Equipment 70 Doctor (MBBS) Clinic Fee 71 Medical Test Transport 72 Motor Vehicle 73 Motor Vehicle Accessories 74 Motor Fuel 75 Mechanical Service 76 Motor Vehicle Tax 77 Transport Services Communication 78 Postal Services 79 Communication & Apparatus Recreation & Culture 80 Recreation & Culture 81 Text Books 82 News Papers 83 Stationery Education 84 Education Restaurants And Hotels 85 Ready Made Food Miscellaneous Goods And Services 86 Personal Care 87 Cosmetics 88 Blades 89 Personal Equipments 30 Weights 0.88 1.55 29.41 21.81 0.56 0.33 0.50 4.40 1.58 0.01 0.23 4.21 0.33 0.65 0.59 0.32 0.25 0.79 0.15 1.04 0.08 2.19 1.27 0.01 0.59 0.32 7.20 0.66 0.24 3.03 0.46 0.11 2.70 3.22 0.07 3.15 2.02 0.86 0.57 0.19 0.40 3.94 3.94 1.23 1.23 2.76 1.49 0.39 0.03 0.84 Feb-17 Index Jan-18 Feb-18 310.54 166.91 194.45 185.86 249.82 235.67 164.74 238.10 158.08 198.47 293.08 224.32 216.40 226.59 179.63 227.90 209.42 230.50 204.96 249.98 244.86 210.17 183.60 250.20 275.73 193.51 174.75 172.13 213.44 146.07 229.62 210.18 193.34 131.58 246.00 129.17 196.88 129.61 292.41 179.59 214.35 233.96 233.96 269.63 269.63 241.06 221.97 203.29 196.91 293.78 333.86 167.79 202.53 195.96 259.82 253.90 172.61 238.10 158.08 237.33 300.58 232.97 226.49 235.87 184.14 240.15 217.34 234.72 210.07 262.86 256.32 218.26 186.69 255.80 292.66 205.04 182.63 180.02 215.23 160.55 236.37 210.18 194.89 133.20 254.14 130.67 198.46 131.60 287.98 184.72 222.01 262.35 262.35 286.89 286.89 255.69 233.68 206.14 201.35 319.33 336.77 167.82 202.62 195.96 261.97 255.15 173.82 238.10 158.08 246.23 301.93 233.50 227.53 235.96 184.74 242.26 218.40 235.23 210.07 262.86 257.76 220.58 187.75 256.26 298.32 206.26 184.47 180.19 215.18 163.92 237.06 210.18 195.86 133.28 255.80 130.71 198.62 131.62 287.98 186.23 222.00 262.35 262.35 287.21 287.21 255.21 233.45 206.60 201.62 317.95
  35. State Bank of Pakistan Table A11 : Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Index Items and Specifications General Agriculture Forestry & Fishery 1 Wheat 2 Maize 3 Rice 4 Sorghum/Jowar 5 Millet/Bajra 6 Vegetables 7 Fresh Fruits 8 Dry Fruits 9 Cotton Seeds 10 Other Oil Seeds 11 Edible Roots/ Potatoes 12 Stimulant And Spice Crops 13 Pulses 14 Sugar Crops 15 Fibre Crops 16 Unmanufactured Tobacco 17 Poultry 18 Milk From Bovine Animals 19 Eggs 20 Raw Animal Material/Wool 21 Hides And Fur Skins, Raw 22 Fuel Wood In Logs 23 Fishes Live Fresh Or Chilled Ores/Minerals, Gas & Elect. 24 Coal Not Agglomerated 25 Natural Gas Liquefied 26 Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride 27 Electrical Energy Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textiles 28 Meat Of Animals 29 Vegetables & Fruit Juices 30 Dried Fruits & Nuts 31 Fruit Juices 32 Vegetable Oil Refined 33 Vegetable Ghee 34 Oil Cakes 35 Processed Liquid Milk 36 Milk And Cream In Solid Form 37 Ice Cream 38 Dairy Products N.E.C 39 Wheat Flour 40 Other Cereal Flour 41 Sugar Refined 42 Chocolate 43 Sugar Confectionary 44 Coffee And Tea 45 Spices 46 Other Food Products 47 Mineral Water 48 Beverages 49 Tobacco Products 50 Cotton Yarn 51 Nylon Yarn 52 Blended Yarn 53 Woven Fabrics 54 Cotton Fabrics 55 Other Fabrics Feb-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 215.86 243.57 215.69 187.42 157.46 235.79 168.08 211.37 230.94 241.74 267.94 181.39 164.46 224.40 271.33 268.94 216.97 277.88 169.47 266.07 229.04 178.30 105.67 277.01 466.43 242.78 155.29 210.99 238.53 288.00 226.40 279.49 223.21 264.08 179.72 154.12 126.40 225.71 257.27 219.31 238.04 254.42 197.50 269.57 235.50 100.00 128.44 244.86 190.46 293.85 198.57 172.33 445.85 203.06 143.99 181.06 310.72 209.30 224.40 224.99 259.27 209.85 205.68 174.67 239.51 184.05 270.50 242.06 267.11 255.87 190.61 216.51 271.65 252.98 257.62 244.64 305.98 221.99 275.47 237.06 172.52 104.72 283.56 478.82 243.77 155.29 212.87 257.14 288.00 231.89 311.27 226.05 296.20 182.55 155.66 127.54 231.10 287.08 223.37 266.02 267.37 196.64 217.28 199.93 100.00 127.85 253.63 202.13 294.50 208.14 172.85 318.37 227.49 143.99 188.55 321.49 212.43 227.16 224.66 252.97 210.64 199.27 174.06 242.65 183.60 219.44 265.01 267.56 256.23 187.75 167.22 269.38 249.60 257.62 226.99 305.98 211.05 275.47 212.43 173.81 105.02 283.56 477.80 243.39 155.29 212.02 264.37 288.00 231.40 311.27 224.97 297.11 182.60 156.36 126.69 231.54 286.83 223.55 266.02 267.61 195.72 218.04 189.16 100.00 127.85 261.80 202.23 294.50 208.14 172.85 318.37 227.49 143.99 188.55 321.49 213.18 227.16 31
  36. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table A11: Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Index Items and Specifications 56 Silk And Rayon Fabrics 57 Towels 58 Blankets 59 Bed Sheets 60 Quilts 61 Woolen Carpets 62 Synthetic Carpets 63 Hosiery Products 64 Ready Made Garments 65 Leather With Out Hairs 66 Other Leather N.E.C 67 Footwear’s Other Transportable Goods 68 Timber 69 Printing Paper 70 Hard Board 71 Coke 72 Motor Sprit 73 Diesel Oil 74 Kerosene Oil 75 Furnace Oil 76 Mobil Oil 77 Chemicals 78 Dying Materials 79 Fertilizers 80 Pesticides 81 Insecticides 82 Paints & Varnishes 83 Medicines 84 Soaps & Detergent 85 Auto Tyres 86 Plastic Products 87 Glass Sheets 88 Other Glass Articles 89 Ceramics And Sanitary 90 Bricks Blocks And Tiles 91 Cement 92 Bed Foams 93 Matches Metal Product Machinery & Equip 94 Pig Iron 95 Steel Bars & Sheets 96 Pipe Fittings 97 Steel Products 98 Engines And Motors 99 Vacuum Pumps 100 Air Conditioners 101 Cultivators 102 Chuff Cutter 103 Tractors 104 Lathe Machines 105 Concrete Mixer 106 Refrige,Wash& Sew Mach, Iron,Fan 107 Electrical Wires 108 Lighting Equipments 109 Radio And Television 110 Motor Vehicles 111 Motor Cycles 112 Bicycles 32 Feb-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 186.55 276.14 247.38 256.07 203.79 196.43 129.25 241.83 199.15 221.97 207.31 145.51 170.89 225.41 165.63 220.83 163.45 120.40 153.09 115.11 105.61 196.91 170.99 146.55 215.96 304.43 143.12 296.43 173.83 191.29 177.07 225.73 297.20 307.95 234.18 219.99 218.23 167.17 165.53 174.49 128.97 129.50 214.33 177.41 116.98 123.69 200.10 190.66 153.46 201.75 241.06 138.83 207.15 204.51 170.73 140.42 191.39 125.89 187.65 188.14 276.14 265.03 256.87 222.32 196.43 130.95 244.11 201.37 212.68 207.02 145.51 183.97 233.32 168.59 225.00 163.45 137.71 185.90 171.38 116.89 201.21 182.36 146.55 223.59 310.16 140.56 299.42 177.01 192.28 177.07 226.00 302.27 318.10 234.59 223.59 211.23 172.83 171.36 178.30 128.97 144.52 215.66 176.70 116.98 123.69 200.10 190.66 153.46 201.75 241.06 138.83 216.72 205.92 171.39 140.42 195.36 126.05 187.65 188.14 276.14 265.03 256.87 222.32 196.43 130.95 244.11 201.37 212.68 207.02 145.51 190.61 237.00 168.59 225.00 163.45 142.75 201.27 187.24 130.29 200.85 188.23 146.55 225.55 310.16 140.56 301.12 177.01 191.35 177.07 226.00 302.27 318.10 234.76 223.59 209.70 173.00 171.36 178.47 128.97 144.61 215.66 176.70 116.98 123.69 200.10 190.66 153.46 201.75 241.06 138.83 217.87 205.92 171.39 140.42 195.36 126.05 187.65
  37. State Bank of Pakistan Table A12 : Price Indices - Base 2007-08 = 100 Period Overall 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 CPI Food Non-food Overall WPI Food SPI * Non-Food 117.03 128.85 146.45 162.57 174.53 189.58 198.16 203.82 212.29 123.11 139.05 164.10 182.20 195.18 212.74 220.20 224.78 233.37 113.37 122.73 135.87 150.80 162.16 175.69 184.95 191.25 199.65 118.93 135.40 164.17 181.28 194.61 210.48 209.85 207.64 216.02 119.68 136.85 159.26 181.32 197.21 213.04 226.22 234.69 248.74 118.45 134.48 167.27 181.26 192.95 208.85 199.47 190.47 195.27 123.26 139.84 164.02 178.67 189.64 208.66 212.61 216.23 220.10 2015 Oct Nov Dec 203.03 204.22 203.06 224.86 227.55 223.90 189.95 190.23 190.57 208.69 208.72 207.37 234.47 232.83 230.72 192.34 193.43 192.55 217.02 219.37 218.60 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 203.49 202.98 203.28 206.43 205.99 207.30 210.08 209.46 209.88 211.57 212.01 210.57 222.58 221.07 222.25 227.53 225.84 228.95 234.69 232.48 232.80 234.68 235.17 230.69 192.05 192.14 191.91 193.78 194.09 194.32 195.33 195.66 196.14 197.72 198.13 198.51 206.27 205.05 204.22 206.87 208.01 210.88 215.81 215.75 214.61 214.53 214.07 213.76 231.14 231.26 231.43 237.05 238.62 244.68 251.76 250.12 250.41 250.63 247.89 244.40 190.48 188.42 186.95 187.72 188.59 189.44 192.99 193.95 191.89 191.64 192.62 194.32 217.47 215.73 215.13 215.88 214.35 216.58 218.81 218.66 218.67 220.11 220.68 219.73 2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 210.94 211.54 213.32 216.30 216.33 215.45 216.19 216.61 217.98 219.61 220.42 220.20 228.45 229.19 233.47 237.50 237.01 234.37 234.47 235.38 238.43 239.89 240.79 239.43 200.44 200.96 201.24 203.59 203.94 204.11 205.23 205.36 205.72 207.45 208.21 208.67 214.84 215.86 217.29 219.22 218.78 217.77 217.24 217.96 218.08 219.41 220.20 221.00 244.73 244.91 247.53 252.45 251.10 248.90 249.95 251.05 252.27 254.40 252.83 253.31 195.87 197.42 198.10 198.13 198.26 198.02 196.63 196.96 196.39 197.22 199.49 200.49 218.35 219.25 223.62 222.07 220.51 220.68 219.28 219.82 223.38 225.15 226.29 225.66 2018 Jan Feb 220.27 219.58 236.92 234.31 210.29 210.75 224.99 224.66 252.74 250.56 207.38 208.23 224.13 222.19 *: all groups combined 33
  38. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table A13: International Commodity Prices/ Indices Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 59.9 61.2 66.2 63.5 76.2 77.8 85.0 80.5 Rice ($/MT) 402.0 406.0 442.0 425.0 Wheat ($/MT) 179.7 184.1 192.2 Energy Crude Oil (US$ per barrel) * Energy Index (2010 = 100) Food - 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Palm Oil ($/MT) 716.0 672.0 677.0 663.0 Soybean Oil ($/MT) 881.0 866.0 864.0 842.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 Sugar (US cent/ pound)^ Non-Food Non-Energy Cotton Outlook 'A' Index #^ 92.6 92.2 97.0 96.9 Copper ($/MT) 6,826.6 6,833.9 7,065.9 7,006.5 Aluminum ($/MT) 2,097.4 2,080.5 2,209.7 2,181.8 Metal Price Index (2010 = 100) 64.2 72.3 76.3 77.5 Tin ($/MT) 19,557.5 19,476.4 20,696.9 21,651.6 Nickel ($/MT) 11,972.0 11,495.1 12,864.9 13,595.9 Zinc ($/MT) 3,229.3 3,196.0 3,441.5 3,532.9 Lead ($/MT) 2,461.4 2,509.9 2,584.1 2,581.1 Iron Ore ($ cents/dry MT) Uranium ($/MT)@ DAP ($/MT) Urea ($/MT) 23.1 22.3 21.9 21.4 370.0 385.0 395.0 404.0 246.0 219.0 224.0 229.0 Source: World Bank for all variables / indices except Uranium which is taken from Cameco (World Largest Uranium Producer) @ Data has been taken from Cameco website as it is not available in World Bank dataset. ^ The measurement unit for sugar and Cotton is US cent/ pound in IMF data source, whereas it is US dollar / kg in World bank dataset. The result of two datasets can be reconciled using conversion formula: 1US $ / $/MT = US$ per metricU.S. tonne. kilogram = 45.359237 cents / pound * Crude Oil (Petroleum), simple average of three spot prices; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai fateh # Middling 1-3/32 inch staple, liverpool Index "A", average of the cheapest Cts/lb five of fourteen styles, CIF Liverpool (Cotton Outlook, Liverpool). From January 1968 to May 1981 strict middling 1-1/16 inch staple. Prior to 1968, Mexican 1-1/16.2/ DAP: Diammonium Phosphate 34
  39. State Bank of Pakistan Table 14 : CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 183.58 198.05 201.76 210.08 216.19 Aug 185.71 198.70 202.25 209.46 216.61 Sep 185.18 199.40 202.04 209.88 217.98 Oct 188.82 199.81 203.03 211.57 219.61 Nov 191.21 198.79 204.22 212.01 220.42 Dec 188.68 196.79 203.06 210.57 220.20 Jan 189.60 196.95 203.49 210.94 220.27 Feb 189.00 195.13 202.98 211.54 219.58 Mar 190.82 195.57 203.28 213.32 Apr 194.06 198.16 206.43 216.30 May 193.55 199.66 205.99 216.33 Jun 194.74 200.89 207.30 215.45 Seasonally Adjusted Series Jul 182.74 197.10 200.78 209.04 215.14 Aug 184.45 197.44 201.05 208.25 215.44 Sep 184.02 198.19 200.87 208.74 216.86 Oct 187.34 198.29 201.53 210.06 218.07 Nov 190.03 197.61 203.04 210.80 219.17 Dec 189.59 197.66 203.87 211.32 220.92 Jan 190.22 197.64 204.25 211.78 221.21 Feb 190.97 197.18 205.10 213.74 221.84 Mar 192.43 197.24 205.04 215.17 Apr 193.88 197.95 206.19 216.00 May 193.98 200.03 206.31 216.64 Jun 195.37 201.46 207.81 215.92 35
  40. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table 15: CPI Food Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 208.19 222.80 224.14 234.69 234.47 Aug 212.27 224.05 224.86 232.48 235.38 Sep 209.09 224.12 223.87 232.80 238.43 Oct 212.61 223.74 224.86 234.68 239.89 Nov 218.16 222.74 227.55 235.17 240.79 Dec 210.89 218.08 223.90 230.69 239.43 Jan 210.81 217.10 222.58 228.45 236.92 Feb 208.74 213.15 221.07 229.19 234.31 Mar 213.11 214.25 222.25 233.47 Apr 217.33 217.26 227.53 237.50 May 214.75 221.22 225.84 237.01 Jun 216.98 223.84 228.95 234.37 Seasonally Adjusted Series 36 Jul 206.55 220.94 222.21 232.64 232.42 Aug 209.27 221.05 221.98 229.58 232.56 Sep 206.20 221.06 220.91 229.88 235.56 Oct 209.34 220.41 221.63 231.48 236.69 Nov 214.85 219.45 224.32 231.86 237.40 Dec 212.35 219.39 225.02 231.62 240.26 Jan 212.67 219.15 224.85 231.01 239.75 Feb 213.51 218.10 226.19 234.49 239.73 Mar 216.25 217.45 225.59 236.94 Apr 217.72 217.61 227.83 237.70 May 216.05 222.39 226.92 238.07 Jun 218.35 225.03 229.96 235.24
  41. State Bank of Pakistan Table 16 : CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 100.46 100.48 100.49 100.50 100.49 Average 100.48 Aug 100.68 100.64 100.60 100.58 100.55 100.61 Sep 100.63 100.61 100.58 100.55 100.51 100.58 Oct 100.79 100.77 100.74 100.72 100.70 100.75 Nov 100.62 100.60 100.58 100.58 100.57 100.59 Dec 99.52 99.56 99.60 99.65 99.67 99.60 Jan 99.67 99.65 99.63 99.60 99.57 99.63 98.98 98.97 Feb 98.97 98.96 98.97 98.97 Mar 99.16 99.15 99.14 99.14 99.15 Apr 100.09 100.11 100.12 100.14 100.11 May 99.78 99.82 99.84 99.86 99.82 Jun 99.68 99.72 99.75 99.78 99.73 Table 17: CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 100.79 100.84 100.87 100.88 100.88 Average 100.85 Aug 101.43 101.36 101.30 101.26 101.21 101.31 Sep 101.40 101.39 101.34 101.27 101.22 101.32 Oct 101.56 101.51 101.46 101.38 101.35 101.45 Nov 101.54 101.50 101.44 101.43 101.43 101.47 Dec 99.31 99.40 99.50 99.60 99.66 99.49 Jan 99.13 99.06 98.99 98.89 98.82 98.98 Feb 97.77 97.73 97.74 97.74 97.74 97.74 Mar 98.55 98.53 98.52 98.54 98.53 Apr 99.82 99.84 99.87 99.92 99.86 May 99.40 99.47 99.52 99.56 99.49 Jun 99.37 99.47 99.56 99.63 99.51 37
  42. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Table 18: CPI Month-on-Month % Change Original & Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 2.02 1.70 0.43 1.34 0.34 Aug 1.16 0.33 0.24 -0.30 0.19 Sep -0.29 0.35 -0.10 0.20 0.63 Oct 1.97 0.21 0.49 0.81 0.75 Nov 1.27 -0.51 0.59 0.21 0.37 Dec -1.32 -1.01 -0.57 -0.68 -0.10 Jan 0.49 0.08 0.21 0.18 0.03 -0.31 Feb -0.32 -0.92 -0.25 0.28 Mar 0.96 0.23 0.15 0.84 Apr 1.70 1.32 1.55 1.40 May -0.26 0.76 -0.21 0.01 Jun 0.61 0.62 0.64 -0.41 Jul 1.20 0.89 -0.33 0.59 -0.36 Aug 0.94 0.17 0.13 -0.38 0.14 Sep -0.23 0.38 -0.09 0.23 0.66 Oct 1.80 0.05 0.33 0.63 0.56 Nov 1.43 -0.34 0.75 0.35 0.50 Dec -0.23 0.03 0.41 0.25 0.80 Jan 0.33 -0.01 0.19 0.22 0.13 0.28 Seasonally Adjusted Series 38 Feb 0.39 -0.23 0.42 0.92 Mar 0.76 0.03 -0.03 0.67 Apr 0.75 0.36 0.56 0.39 May 0.05 1.05 0.06 0.29 Jun 0.72 0.71 0.73 -0.33
  43. State Bank of Pakistan Table 19 : CPI Food Month-on-Month % Change Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series Original Series Period FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jul 3.01 2.68 0.13 2.50 0.04 Aug 1.96 0.56 0.32 -0.94 0.39 Sep -1.50 0.03 -0.44 0.14 1.29 Oct 1.68 -0.17 0.44 0.81 0.61 Nov 2.61 -0.45 1.20 0.21 0.37 Dec -3.33 -2.09 -1.61 -1.90 -0.56 Jan -0.04 -0.45 -0.59 -0.97 -1.05 -1.11 Feb -0.98 -1.82 -0.68 0.32 Mar 2.10 0.52 0.54 1.87 Apr 1.98 1.41 2.38 1.73 May -1.19 1.82 -0.74 -0.21 Jun 1.04 1.18 1.38 -1.11 Jul 1.47 1.19 -1.25 1.16 -1.20 Aug 1.32 0.05 -0.11 -1.31 0.06 Sep -1.47 0.00 -0.48 0.13 1.29 Oct 1.52 -0.29 0.33 0.70 0.48 Nov 2.63 -0.44 1.21 0.16 0.30 Dec -1.16 -0.03 0.31 -0.10 1.20 Jan 0.15 -0.11 -0.08 -0.26 -0.21 Feb 0.40 -0.48 0.59 1.51 -0.01 Mar 1.28 -0.30 -0.26 1.05 Seasonally Adjusted Series Apr 0.68 0.07 1.00 0.32 May -0.77 2.20 -0.40 0.15 Jun 1.07 1.18 1.34 -1.19 39
  44. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Figure A1: CPI Non-food Inflation (percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -10 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 10 20 10 5 0 -5 10 5 0 -5 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc 20 Health 15 10 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Transport Communication 20 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 -10 Jun-17 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 -10 -5 Aug-17 -5 0 Apr-17 0 10 5 Feb-17 5 Education Oct-16 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Dec-16 10 -10 Jun-16 -15 Aug-16 Recreation & Culture 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -10 Apr-16 -15 Feb-16 -10 40 10 15 15
  45. State Bank of Pakistan Figure A2 : Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items, February 2018 Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) YoY price changes 100 160 140 80 120 100 60 100 80 120 100 60 80 80 40 60 40 60 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 160 100 160 12-month ma food price changes 140 80 120 100 60 80 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 20 140 12-month ma price changes 140 100 12-month ma non-food price changes 80 120 100 60 80 40 60 40 20 40 60 40 20 20 20 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent 0 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 160 Price intervals in percent 41
  46. 50 Price intervals in percent 42 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 50 YoY price changes 100 12-month ma food price changes 100 40 80 40 80 30 60 30 60 20 40 20 40 10 20 10 20 0 0 0 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 Inflation Monitor, February 2018 Figure A3: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities, February 2018 Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 50 12-month ma price changes 100 40 80 40 80 30 60 30 60 20 40 20 40 10 20 10 20 0 0 0 0 50 12-month ma non-food price changes 100 Price intervals in percent
  47. State Bank of Pakistan `Figure A4: Group- wise/ Overall Inflation Diffusion Index (IDI) and respective/ overall YoY Inflation (percent) FNAB-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) FNAB Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 FHE-IDI (LHS) FHE Inflation- YoY 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Group [1.41%] ABT-IDI (LHS) ABT Inflation- YoY H-IDI (LHS) H Inflation- YoY Clothing & Footwear Group [7.57%] Edu-IDI (LHS) Edu Inflation- YoY Housing, Water, Elect. Gas Group [29.41%] Com-IDI (LHS) Com Inflation- YoY 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 RH-IDI (LHS) RH Inflation- YoY 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Communication Group [3.22%] Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Miscellaneous Group [2.76%] Misc-IDI (LHS) Misc Inflation- YoY Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Restaurant & Hotels Group [1.23%] Transport Group [7.20%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Education Group [3.94%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 T-IDI (LHS) T Inflation- YoY Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 HWEG-IDI (LHS) HWEG Inflation- YoY RC-IDI (LHS) RC Inflation- YoY 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Health Group [2.19%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 CF- IDI (LHS) CF Inflation- YoY Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Recreation & Culture Group [2.02%] Furnishing & Household Equip. Group [4.21%] Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Group [34.83%] Numbers in square brackets show the weights of respective groups in the CPI baskets. 43
  48. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 Annexure B Technical Notes 1. All the three measures of inflation, viz. CPI, WPI and SPI are computed by the following Laspeyres Index formula:  Pt j  I t   w  j  j  P0  j 0 Where It is price index, w0j is weight of commodity j in the overall basket, Pt j is price of commodity j in period t and P0 j is its price in the base year. 2. Base year for all the indices is the year 2007-08. 3. CPI basket contains 487 consumers’ goods; WPI basket contains 463 items; SPI contains 53 items. 4. YoY inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the same month of the last year. It is computed as follows: t  ( It I t 12  1)  100 5. Period average inflation is the percent change of the average index during the period from July to the given month of a fiscal year over the average index during the corresponding period of the last year. It is computed as follows:  t     I t i  i 0   t  t 12   1  100     I t 12 i   i 0  Where v is the serial number of the month of July of current fiscal year in a given time series. 6. Monthly inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the preceding month. It is computed as follows: 44
  49. State Bank of Pakistan t  ( It  1)  100 I t 1 7. 12-month moving average inflation (Long-run trend inflation) is the percent change of 12-month moving average of a price index; it is computed as follows:  11    I t i  i 0  ~  t  11  1  100     I t 12 i   i 0  8. Core Inflation is defined as the persistent component of measured inflation that excludes volatile and controlled prices. It reflects the normal supply and demand conditions in the economy. Core inflation is computed by the following three methods: a) Non-food, Non-energy inflation (NFNE inflation); it is computed by excluding food group and energy items (kerosene oil, petrol, diesel, CNG, electricity and natural gas) from the CPI basket. b) 20% trimmed-mean inflation; it is computed through the following steps: i. All CPI items are arranged in ascending order according to YoY/12-month moving average/monthly/period average changes in their price indices in a given month. ii. 20 percent of the items showing extreme changes are excluded with 10 percent of the items at the top of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 90% or more) and 10 percent of the items at the bottom of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 10 percent or less). iii. The weighted mean of the changes in price indices of the rest of the items is core inflation. c) Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) developed by State Bank of Pakistan is a hybrid method based on permanent exclusion criteria. Volatile price items, to be excluded in the newly proposed measure RSC-CPI, are identified by analyzing the list and frequency of commodities that have been trimmed frequently in the past while computing monthly weighted trimmed mean measure. Commodities 45
  50. Inflation Monitor , February 2018 that were trimmed out 13 and above times since July 2008 to February 2013 are selected for permanently excluding from the CPI basket. This newly developed component includes a mix of both food and non-food commodities that show persistent price behavior. Fifty Commodities included comprise relatively stable component (RSC-CPI) with a weight of 67.69. The detailed methodology of RSC-CPI and group wise items along their weights can be viewed at the following link; http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2013/wp66.pdf 9. Weighted contribution of different items (or sub-groups) to total inflation is worked out as below: Let the overall index (It) is the weighted average of price indexes of individual items or sub-groups (Iit), i.e. I t   wi  I it i The weighted contribution of a single item (or a sub-group) to overall inflation is defined as below:  Cit   it 12  wi   it  t    Where C it : Contribution of ith item to the overall inflation  it 12  I it 12 ; i.e. ratio of item’s index to overall index in the I t 12 reference month wi : Weights of ith item  it : Inflation of ith item  t : Overall inflation 46
  51. State Bank of Pakistan 10 . Annualized rate of inflation (based on a month-on-month rate ) is computed as follows Annualized = ((1+ )12-1) 100 Methodology for Estimating Inflation Diffusion Index for Pakistan We constructed an index to measure the spread of inflation in the 487 commodities of the CPI basket. It is based on month-on-month (MoM) change in the prices of these commodities and can be obtained by estimating what is known as an ‘inflation diffusion index’ (IDI) as below: Thus, it is the difference between the share of items with increasing prices (i.e. depicting inflation) and the share of items with falling prices (i.e. depicting deflation) in CPI amongst the commodities for which prices have altered or remained constant1. Based upon commodity level price data from July 2001 to February 2011 we computed inflation diffusion indices overall (general) CPI basket and for all groups in CPI basket (except House Rent Index being single item). A simple analysis2 suggests that IDI is a leading indicator for Pakistan’s YoY inflation. 1 We do not observe the prices of certain commodities (like the seasonal items) during certain periods of time. To calculate the inflation diffusion index we consider the commodities for which prices have been reported (irrespective of changed or not) during the month under review. 2 Formal test shows one way ‘Granger’ causality from IDI to YoY inflation. 47