Nigeria: Purchasing Managers' Index Report for February 2017

Transcription

1. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX A MONTHLY PUBLICATION FEBRUARY 2017 REPORT SURVEY MANAGEMENT DIVISION STATISTICS DEPARTMENT CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA, ABUJA
2. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX (PMI) FEBRUARY 2017 REPORT 1.0 Introduction The Statistics Department, Central Bank of Nigeria conducts a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 13 locations in Nigeria: two states in each of the six geo-political zones, and the FCT (Fig. 1). The survey results are used to compute the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The survey for this month was conducted February 13th to 21st, 2017 with a total of 1,755 responses received from a sample of 1,950 respondents, representing a response rate of 90.0 per cent. The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than that stated by the respondents. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. Fig. 1: Map of Nigeria showing the survey locations 1.1 Data and Method of Presentation The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives. Survey responses indicate whether there is change or no change in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the previous month. For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percent of positive responses plus one-half of the percent of those reporting no change. The composite PMI is then computed as the weighted average of five diffusion indices for manufacturing sector: production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory, with assigned weights of 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The composite PMI for non-manufacturing sector is computed from four 1
3. diffusion indices : business activity, new orders, employment level and raw materials inventory, with equal weights of 25% each. A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change and below 50 points indicates that it is generally declining. The sub-sectors reporting growth are listed in the order of highest to lowest growth. For the sub-sectors reporting contraction/decline, they are listed in the order of the highest to the lowest decline. 2.0 Manufacturing PMI Report Production level declining from expansion, new orders declining at a faster rate, supplier delivery time worsening at a slower rate, employment level declining faster, and raw material inventories declining at a faster rate 60.0 58.0 56.0 Production Level New Orders Supplier Delivery Time Employment Level Raw Materials Inventory 50 point 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 38.0 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 Jul '16 Jun '16 May '16 Apr '16 Mar '16 Feb '16 36.0 The Manufacturing PMI stood at 44.6 index points in February 2017, indicating declines in the manufacturing sector for two consecutive months after an incidence of expansion in December 2016 (Fig. 2, Table 1, Appendix I). Fourteen of the sixteen sub-sectors reported declines in the review month in the following order: transportation equipment; paper products; electrical equipment; printing & related support activities; fabricated metal products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; furniture & related products; cement; plastics & rubber products; petroleum & coal products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; computer & electronic products; nonmetallic mineral products and primary metal. The appliances & components and food, beverage & tobacco products subsectors reported expansion in the review period. 2
4. Overall Manufacturing PMI 55 .0 50 point Purching Managers' Index 53.0 51.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 43.0 Jul '14 Aug '14 Sept '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 41.0 Fig. 2: Trend of Manufacturing PMI Table 1: Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \1 Production level New orders Supplier delivery time Employment level Raw materials/WIP Inventories New Export Orders Output Prices Input Prices Quantity of Purchases Business Outstanding/ Backlog of Work Stocks of Finished Goods Capacity Utilization Series Index* January Series Index* February Percentage Point Change 48.2 51.3 47.9 48.5 45.3 46.3 33.1 67.9 71.4 48.4 43.6 46.9 50.0 44.6 45.2 44.0 48.7 41.7 44.8 38.4 69.9 70.9 47.7 43.2 43.9 45.6 -3.6 -6.1 -3.9 0.2 -3.6 -1.5 5.2 2.0 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -3.1 -4.4 54.2 47.0 49.0 51.1 44.0 44.2 52.2 47.4 52.5 43.4 55.0 55.4 44.1 41.8 47.7 38.9 41.2 51.9 43.3 49.1 35.8 45.6 1.3 -2.9 -7.2 -3.5 -5.1 -3.0 -0.3 -4.2 -3.4 -7.6 -9.4 Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Declining Declining Declining Worsening Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Faster From Expansion Faster Slower Faster Faster Slower Faster Slower Faster Faster Faster From No Change 2 1 2 3 24 2 24 14 32 2 24 24 1 Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Faster Faster Faster From Expansion Faster Faster Slower Faster From Expansion Faster From Expansion 3 2 2 1 3 2 5 2 1 2 1 Direction Manufacturing Sub-Sectors Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products 49.0 45.5 -3.5 Declining Faster 2 Primary metal 32.5 49.5 17.0 Declining Slower 14 Printing & related support activities 44.4 41.0 -3.5 Declining Faster 17 Textile, apparel, leather & footwear 51.2 46.3 -4.9 Declining From Expansion 1 Transportation equipment 41.3 29.5 -11.8 Declining Faster 8 \1 The composite PMI is a weighted average of the following diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, employment ** Number of month moving in current direction 3
5. 2 .1 Production Level The production level index for manufacturing sector contracted in February 2017. The index at 45.2 points indicated a decline in production level when compared to the 51.3 points in the previous month. Twelve manufacturing sub-sectors recorded declines in production level during the review month in the following order: electrical equipment; paper products; transportation equipment; chemical & pharmaceutical products; plastics & rubber products; furniture & related products; fabricated metal products; printing & related support activities; computer & electronic products; primary metal; textile, apparel, leather & footwear and cement. The petroleum & coal products sub-sector remained unchanged, while the appliances & components; food, beverage & tobacco products and nonmetallic mineral products recorded growth in production (Table 2). Table 2: Production at a Glance Index PRODUCTION PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index January 51.3 Series Index February 45.2 60.0 55.8 54.8 62.5 46.7 42.2 58.8 50.5 63.1 40.0 58.3 50.0 17.9 48.8 53.0 31.3 58.3 48.5 38.2 46.4 25.0 41.5 57.1 40.9 55.1 28.3 50.0 40.6 46.4 44.0 48.2 28.6 Percentage Point Change Direction -6.1 Declining -1.7 -7.3 -16.6 -16.1 -21.7 -0.7 -1.7 -9.6 -8.0 -11.7 -8.3 -9.4 28.6 -4.7 -4.8 -2.7 Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Growing Declining No Change Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Rate of Trend Change (Months) From Expansion 1 Slower From Expansion From Expansion From Expansion Faster Faster Slower From Expansion Slower Faster From Expansion From No Change Slower Faster From Expansion Faster 2 1 1 1 2 3 5 1 2 3 1 1 12 3 1 8 2.2 New Orders At 44.0 points, the index declined for the second consecutive month after recording growth recording expansion in December 2016. The index declined at a faster rate when compared to the level achieved in January 2017. Thirteen sub-sectors reported decline in new orders in the order: transportation equipment; paper products; printing & related support activities; fabricated metal products; cement; furniture & related products; petroleum & coal products; electrical equipment; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; chemical & pharmaceutical products; computer & electronic products; primary metal and nonmetallic mineral products, while the remaining three sub-sectors grew in the order: appliances & components; plastics & rubber products and food, beverage & tobacco products. (Table 3). 4
6. Table 3 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index January 47.9 Series Index February 44.0 60.0 44.2 50.0 59.4 43.3 41.1 51.3 47.8 52.4 40.0 66.7 55.0 21.4 40.4 53.4 43.8 58.3 39.4 46.1 46.4 44.4 38.1 53.1 43.2 48.7 28.3 43.8 54.7 46.4 36.7 45.5 25.0 Percentage Point Change Direction -3.9 Declining -1.7 -4.8 -3.9 -12.9 1.1 -3.0 1.8 -4.7 -3.7 -11.7 -22.9 -0.3 25.0 -3.6 -8.0 -18.8 Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 2 Slower Faster From No Change From Expansion Slower Faster Faster Faster From Expansion Faster From Expansion Slower Slower Faster From Expansion Faster 2 2 1 1 3 2 5 14 1 2 1 2 12 14 1 7 2.3 Supplier Delivery Time At 48.7 index points, the supplier delivery time index for manufacturing sub-sectors worsened for the third consecutive month, but at a much slower rate in the month of February 2017. Six subsectors recorded worsening suppliers’ delivery time in the following order: plastics & rubber products; nonmetallic mineral products; food, beverage & tobacco products; cement; paper products and chemical & pharmaceutical products. The primary metal, transportation equipment and appliances & components sub-sector remained unchanged, while the computer & electronic products; petroleum & coal products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; fabricated metal products; electrical equipment; printing & related support activities and furniture & related products sub-sectors recorded improving delivery time in February 2017 (Table 4). Table 4: Supplier Delivery Time at a Glance Index SUPPLIER DELIVERY PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index January 48.5 Series Index February 48.7 44.4 46.2 43.3 50.0 66.7 51.7 46.9 47.8 46.4 51.7 41.7 36.7 53.6 52.4 49.1 43.8 50.0 42.4 47.1 64.3 52.8 52.8 42.0 51.1 39.7 45.0 62.5 37.5 50.0 52.4 53.6 50.0 5 Percentage Point Change Direction 0.2 Worsening 5.6 -3.7 3.8 14.3 -13.9 1.2 -4.9 3.3 -6.7 -6.7 20.8 0.8 -3.6 0.0 4.5 6.3 No Change Worsening Worsening Improving Improving Improving Worsening Improving Worsening Worsening Improving Worsening No Change Improving Improving No Change Rate of Change Slower Trend (Months) 3 From Worsening Faster Slower From No Change Slower Faster Faster From Worsening Faster From Improving From Worsening Slower From Improving Flat From Worsening From Worsening 1 3 4 1 2 11 6 1 3 1 1 3 1 2 1 1
7. 2 .4 Employment Level Employment level index in the month of February 2017 stood at 41.7 points, indicating declines in employment level for the twenty-fourth consecutive month. However, the index declined at a faster rate when compared with the level in the preceding month. Of the sixteen sub-sectors, fourteen recorded declines in the following order: transportation equipment; electrical equipment; printing & related support activities; computer & electronic products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; fabricated metal products; petroleum & coal products; appliances & components; furniture & related products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; nonmetallic mineral products; plastics & rubber products; paper products and cement. The primary metal sub-sectors remained unchanged, while only the food, beverage & tobacco products sub-sector recorded growth during the review period (Table 5). Table 5: Employment Level at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index January 45.3 Series Index February 41.7 40.0 40.4 45.2 34.4 30.0 45.5 47.4 44.6 42.9 45.0 54.2 50.0 50.0 41.6 49.6 50.0 41.7 48.5 36.3 35.7 33.3 36.4 50.4 42.0 44.9 48.3 37.5 45.3 50.0 34.5 42.2 18.8 Percentage Point Change Direction -3.6 Declining 1.7 8.1 -8.9 1.3 3.3 -9.1 3.1 -2.7 2.0 3.3 -16.7 -4.7 0.0 -7.0 -7.4 -31.3 Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining No Change Declining Declining Declining Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 24 Slower Slower Faster Slower Slower Faster From Contraction Faster Slower Slower From Expansion From No Change Flat Faster Faster From No Change 4 2 16 7 9 19 1 16 14 2 1 1 2 19 2 1 2.5 Raw Materials Inventory At 44.8 points, the raw materials inventory index declined for two consecutive months. Of the sixteen sub-sectors, eleven recorded declines in raw materials inventories in the order: petroleum & coal products; transportation equipment; paper products; furniture & related products; cement; chemical & pharmaceutical products; printing & related support activities; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; fabricated metal products; plastics & rubber products and electrical equipment. The remaining five sub-sectors recorded increase in inventories in the order: appliances & components; primary metal; nonmetallic mineral products; computer & electronic products and food, beverage & tobacco products (Table 6). 6
8. Table 6 : Raw Materials Inventories at a Glance Index RAW MATERIALS INVENTORIES PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment 3.0 Series Index January 46.3 Series Index February 44.8 65.0 48.1 48.1 33.3 33.3 44.4 55.8 43.5 54.8 46.6 33.3 45.0 35.7 39.5 46.6 37.5 75.0 40.9 41.2 53.6 47.2 42.0 52.7 40.3 57.7 38.3 31.3 42.2 64.3 41.6 41.7 35.7 Percentage Point Change Direction -1.5 Declining 10.0 -7.2 -6.9 20.2 13.9 -2.5 -3.1 -3.2 2.9 -8.2 -2.1 -2.8 28.6 2.1 -4.9 -1.8 Growing Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 2 Faster Faster Faster From Contraction Slower Faster Slower Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster From Contraction Slower Faster Faster 3 2 1 1 3 10 5 13 2 2 12 2 1 15 2 2 Non-Manufacturing PMI Business activity, new orders, employment level and raw materials inventories declining in February 2017 Business Activity Inventory 54.0 New orders 50 point Employment Level 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 Jul '16 Jun '16 May '16 Apr '16 Mar '16 Feb '16 38.0 The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector declined for the fourteenth consecutive month. The index stood at 44.5 points, indicating a faster decline when compared to the 49.4 points in January 2017. Of the eighteen non-manufacturing sub-sectors, fifteen recorded declines in the following order: construction; professional, scientific, & technical services; water supply, sewage & waste management; accommodation & food services; public administration; arts, 7
9. entertainment & recreation; real estate, rental & leasing; utilities; wholesale trade; information & communication; finance & insurance; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles…; health care & social assistance; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply and transportation & warehousing. The management of companies remained the same, while the educational services and agriculture reported increase in the review month (Table 7 and Fig. 3). Table 7: Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \2 Business Activity Level of new orders/customers/incoming business Level of employment in your organisation Raw materials/WIP Inventories Average price of yourInputs (volume weighted) Level of outstanding business/ Backlog of work New Exports orders Imports Finished goods Inventories (sentiments) Series Index January Series Index February Percentage Point Change 49.4 50.6 49.4 45.6 52.0 65.6 43.6 32.5 36.1 41.5 44.5 45.4 44.9 42.6 44.9 65.4 42.9 33.4 34.5 38.7 -4.9 -5.2 -4.5 -3.0 -7.1 -0.3 -0.6 0.9 -1.6 -2.8 47.1 59.6 53.8 39.8 58.0 51.7 40.5 47.1 50.2 28.1 46.9 42.2 47.4 45.8 61.6 52.1 44.7 48.7 42.4 51.0 43.6 34.0 52.5 47.0 44.5 45.7 44.4 50.0 39.4 42.7 43.9 45.5 49.6 44.1 39.7 44.1 -4.7 -8.7 -10.2 -5.8 -5.5 -4.7 4.0 -1.4 -5.8 21.9 -7.5 0.5 -3.5 -0.3 -12.0 -8.0 -5.0 -4.6 Rate of Change Trend (Months) Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Faster From Expansion Faster Faster From Expansion Slower Faster Slower Faster Faster 14 1 14 14 1 16 32 32 32 32 Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining No Change Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Faster Slower From Expansion Faster Slower From Expansion Slower Faster From Expansion From Contraction Faster Slower Faster Faster From Expansion From Expansion Faster Faster 14 9 1 21 3 1 3 9 1 1 24 14 2 14 1 1 2 14 Direction Non-manufacturing sub-sectors Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade \2 The composite PMI is a simple average of the following diffusion (series) indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventories. Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 Jul '14 Aug '14 Sept '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Purchasing Managers' Index 50 point Fig. 3: Trend of Non-Manufacturing PMI 8
10. 3 .1 Business Activity The business activity index dropped to 45.4 points in February 2017, from its expansionary level of 50.6 points in January 2017. Fifteen sub-sectors recorded declines in the following order: construction; water supply, sewage & waste management; professional, scientific, & technical services; arts, entertainment & recreation; utilities; accommodation & food services; real estate, rental & leasing; information & communication; management of companies; public administration; wholesale trade; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles…; finance & insurance; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply and health care & social assistance, while the remaining three sub-sectors recorded growth in the order: agriculture; educational services and transportation & warehousing (Table 8). Table 8: Business Activity at a Glance Index BUSINESS ACTIVITY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index January 50.6 49.1 63.8 51.3 38.4 60.7 52.2 42.7 48.7 50.8 25.0 50.7 50.0 46.8 45.5 65.1 47.9 44.7 49.2 Series Index February 45.4 43.7 54.6 41.9 34.1 52.2 47.6 47.2 47.7 44.8 45.0 41.4 45.8 43.8 46.7 51.6 42.1 35.4 46.0 Percentage Point Change -5.2 -5.4 -9.2 -9.4 -4.3 -8.5 -4.7 4.5 -1.0 -5.9 20.0 -9.3 -4.2 -3.1 1.3 -13.5 -5.8 -9.3 -3.1 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Faster 14 Growing Slower 9 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Faster 12 Growing Slower 3 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Slower 3 Declining Faster 3 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Slower 2 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining From No Change 1 Declining Faster 2 Declining Slower 14 Growing Slower 5 Declining Faster 2 Declining Faster 2 Declining Faster 2 3.2 New Orders At 44.9 points, the new orders index declined at a faster rate in February 2017 after thirteen months consecutive decline. Of the eighteen sub-sectors, fourteen declined in the following order: construction; professional, scientific, & technical services; accommodation & food services; water supply, sewage & waste management; real estate, rental & leasing; arts, entertainment & recreation; utilities; public administration; finance & insurance; wholesale trade; information & communication; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles…; health care & social assistance and transportation & warehousing. The electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply sub-sector remained unchanged, while the remaining three sub-sectors recorded growth in the order: management of companies; educational services and agriculture (Table 9). 9
11. Table 9 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index January 49.4 48.1 58.5 50.0 37.2 58.3 57.8 42.7 46.8 50.0 43.8 46.6 43.8 42.7 45.5 64.2 50.0 47.4 48.0 Series Index February 44.9 39.3 50.8 43.2 32.6 51.1 50.0 46.2 48.8 47.4 55.0 35.9 45.8 42.2 48.0 49.2 44.7 41.7 46.7 Percentage Point Change -4.5 -8.8 -7.7 -6.8 -4.7 -7.2 -7.8 3.5 2.0 -2.6 11.3 -10.6 2.1 -0.6 2.6 -15.0 -5.3 -5.7 -1.3 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Declining Faster 14 Declining Faster 14 Growing Slower 9 Declining From No Change 1 Declining Faster 21 Growing Slower 3 No Change From Expansion 1 Declining Slower 2 Declining Slower 3 Declining From No Change 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Faster 16 Declining Slower 14 Declining Faster 18 Declining Slower 8 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining From No Change 1 Declining Faster 2 Declining Faster 2 3.3 Employment Level The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 42.6 points indicating a decline in employment for the fourteen consecutive months. Sixteen sub-sectors recorded declines in employment level in the following order: construction; utilities; information & communication; professional, scientific, & technical services; health care & social assistance; water supply, sewage & waste management; wholesale trade; arts, entertainment & recreation; accommodation & food services; finance & insurance; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; real estate, rental & leasing; public administration; transportation & warehousing; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles… and agriculture. The management of companies sub-sector remained unchanged, while the educational services sub-sectors grew in the review month (Table 10). Table 10: Employment at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index January 45.6 46.7 49.2 50.0 44.2 58.0 43.3 34.4 44.9 46.2 18.8 45.2 43.8 45.2 44.7 52.8 47.8 44.7 44.1 Series Index February 42.6 42.2 49.2 41.9 29.5 56.5 43.9 42.5 41.3 35.3 50.0 37.5 45.8 44.5 48.0 46.7 34.2 41.3 41.7 10 Percentage Point Change -3.0 -4.5 0.0 -8.1 -14.6 -1.4 0.6 8.1 -3.6 -10.8 31.3 -7.7 2.1 -0.7 3.3 -6.1 -13.6 -3.4 -2.4 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Declining Faster 14 Declining Faster 9 Declining Flat 2 Declining From No Change 1 Declining Faster 21 Growing Slower 2 Declining Slower 9 Declining Slower 13 Declining Faster 14 Declining Faster 24 No Change From Contraction 1 Declining Faster 13 Declining Slower 9 Declining Faster 15 Declining Slower 11 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Faster 2 Declining Faster 3 Declining Faster 15
12. 3 .4 Inventories/Work in Progress Non-manufacturing inventories/work in progress index fell in February 2017 to 44.9 points from the 52.0 points in the previous month. Thirteen sub-sectors recorded lower inventories in the following order: public administration; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles…; construction; water supply, sewage & waste management; wholesale trade; finance & insurance; professional, scientific, & technical services; accommodation & food services; health care & social assistance; real estate, rental & leasing; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; arts, entertainment & recreation and agriculture. The educational services; information & communication and management of companies sub sectors remain unchanged, while the utilities and transportation & warehousing subsectors recorded higher inventory (Table 11). Table 11: Raw Materials Inventories at a Glance Index INVENTORY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index January 52.0 44.3 66.9 63.8 39.5 54.9 53.4 42.4 48.1 53.8 25.0 45.1 31.3 54.9 47.6 64.2 62.5 42.1 53.4 Series Index February 44.9 44.2 49.2 47.3 39.8 50.0 46.3 42.2 45.2 50.0 50.0 42.9 33.3 45.2 39.2 50.8 55.3 40.5 42.0 11 Percentage Point Change -7.1 -0.2 -17.7 -16.5 0.2 -4.9 -7.1 -0.2 -2.9 -3.8 25.0 -2.3 2.1 -9.7 -8.4 -13.3 -7.2 -1.6 -11.4 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Faster 21 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Slower 24 No Change From Expansion 1 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Faster 14 Declining Faster 3 No Change From Expansion 1 No ChangeFrom Contraction 1 Declining Faster 3 Declining Slower 8 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Faster 4 Growing Slower 3 Growing Slower 3 Declining Faster 2 Declining From Expansion 1
13. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 51.3 49.7 54.0 51.9 52.2 49.8 50.2 53.0 48.9 52.0 49.4 49.5 47.8 48.4 50.7 49.2 51.2 51.2 47.2 45.5 45.9 43.7 45.8 41.9 44.1 42.1 42.5 44.1 46.0 52.0 48.2 44.6 55.2 49.7 57.4 55.1 55.1 51.2 50.4 57.4 52.1 56.9 53.6 51.5 49.7 51.0 54.9 52.0 55.4 55.4 49.3 45.0 46.6 42.7 47.9 40.2 43.0 40.5 40.9 42.3 46.9 57.6 51.3 45.2 53.0 51.2 57.6 55.3 56.9 51.1 49.3 54.7 48.9 54.1 49.7 50.8 46.2 50.1 52.1 49.3 52.9 52.7 46.2 43.0 43.0 41.8 42.7 37.0 42.4 37.5 38.7 40.3 45.1 51.8 47.9 44.0 46.4 49.9 46.4 46.2 45.1 49.7 51.3 43.8 47.8 42.7 44.6 42.0 43.5 43.1 46.8 42.7 47.3 45.2 48.4 52.8 50.6 52.2 50.2 55.6 51.7 57.4 55.6 57.7 53.2 47.9 48.5 48.7 46.9 45.9 49.3 46.8 47.2 46.8 51.1 50.0 46.4 48.9 48.0 48.5 48.4 44.8 47.1 48.4 45.5 47.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 42.0 45.7 42.2 43.8 40.4 41.2 42.2 40.6 48.6 45.3 41.7 52.9 52.2 55.7 52.4 51.7 48.4 49.3 56.4 47.1 53.9 48.0 53.3 52.6 52.4 49.0 53.1 52.2 52.7 45.8 44.7 47.1 43.0 43.9 39.4 41.4 40.0 40.9 42.9 46.1 51.6 46.3 44.8 12 43.6 40.8 45.4 45.9 46.0 44.6 47.7 50.1 38.1 43.0 36.9 40.0 40.1 37.6 40.3 39.8 38.7 38.0 38.3 39.2 37.8 36.3 38.7 35.3 38.5 31.2 26.3 37.3 39.6 37.2 33.1 38.4 50.6 48.6 49.3 49.7 53.3 53.6 48.7 54.0 50.1 50.2 51.6 49.2 47.9 49.0 47.5 49.1 46.2 48.6 52.6 53.0 56.4 63.9 59.6 61.4 60.8 64.1 66.5 65.2 65.7 70.4 67.9 69.9 54.2 52.7 52.9 56.7 60.9 56.3 55.6 60.9 56.4 54.4 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 52.8 53.8 52.8 56.5 56.7 57.0 60.9 67.8 68.4 70.0 64.2 69.8 74.0 71.8 71.2 73.2 71.4 70.9 53.3 50.8 55.1 57.1 56.0 51.4 52.5 58.0 48.7 53.0 50.5 53.0 51.7 50.2 51.0 48.3 51.0 54.5 49.9 42.8 41.6 43.6 42.7 39.0 41.6 39.9 42.8 43.5 48.1 52.7 48.4 47.7 46.4 45.4 46.9 50.5 50.0 47.5 48.8 50.7 44.5 48.3 44.9 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.5 45.6 46.0 45.1 44.2 38.5 41.2 42.6 37.0 40.2 41.9 38.3 37.1 39.2 45.2 45.3 43.6 43.2 47.2 48.6 49.8 51.7 47.6 51.1 45.5 53.7 46.5 48.7 45.6 49.3 45.3 46.1 43.2 46.8 46.9 46.4 46.3 44.4 43.8 41.6 40.1 36.0 39.0 38.3 42.4 39.9 42.0 48.5 46.9 43.9 Capacity Utilization Stock of Finished Goods Backlog of Work Quantity of Purchases Input Prices Output Prices New Export Orders Raw Materials Inventory Employment Level Supplier Delivery Time New Orders Production Level COMPOSITE PMI Month Appendix I: Manufacturing PMI Series 45.6
14. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 55.0 58.9 54.7 57.3 59.6 53.8 50.6 54.0 48.6 53.7 51.7 50.1 50.0 50.7 50.1 51.9 49.6 53.4 46.9 44.3 45.4 44.3 44.3 42.3 43.2 43.7 41.0 43.4 42.8 47.1 49.4 44.5 58.9 60.6 57.1 59.6 62.5 56.2 48.8 54.2 49.7 58.2 52.9 51.5 50.4 52.3 52.1 54.2 52.9 55.9 46.2 43.7 46.3 44.2 44.3 40.2 42.8 43.6 39.9 43.0 43.0 48.2 50.6 45.4 55.9 59.8 57.5 59.4 63.6 56.0 50.4 54.7 51.1 56.8 53.1 50.3 51.4 52.4 52.3 54.1 51.6 56.4 46.4 42.0 44.7 42.2 41.3 39.6 42.3 42.0 40.0 42.7 42.3 46.9 49.4 44.9 50.2 58.3 49.9 53.9 57.9 51.4 51.2 52.5 45.6 49.1 49.7 46.4 48.6 48.0 47.0 49.3 45.6 50.0 47.0 44.5 43.9 43.3 44.6 42.5 41.9 41.4 40.3 41.5 40.2 43.8 45.6 42.6 55.2 57.0 54.3 56.4 54.6 51.5 51.9 54.5 48.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 49.5 50.1 49.1 50.1 48.5 51.5 47.9 47.1 46.5 47.6 46.9 47.1 45.8 47.7 43.9 46.4 45.5 49.5 52.0 44.9 13 54.0 56.1 52.8 53.3 57.3 54.5 48.8 54.1 49.8 51.5 51.3 48.5 50.3 50.7 48.7 49.9 51.8 54.7 57.3 53.6 58.5 62.2 62.9 60.7 60.4 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 64.0 65.6 65.4 46.2 47.0 46.2 46.4 49.6 45.6 43.2 46.0 46.5 46.6 44.1 44.4 43.8 43.0 44.5 43.9 42.8 47.0 44.3 39.6 43.8 43.1 38.1 39.6 38.6 39.4 39.6 40.9 42.4 41.5 43.6 42.9 44.0 46.1 40.7 40.8 45.2 43.6 41.1 43.0 39.9 41.1 37.2 36.9 39.1 39.8 42.9 40.3 37.7 41.9 36.2 37.5 34.3 31.8 33.2 33.2 30.0 32.9 28.6 32.8 30.8 33.8 32.5 33.4 47.3 46.4 45.2 44.9 47.5 46.5 44.3 44.6 44.2 44.5 39.1 40.4 39.2 38.3 41.4 42.4 39.0 42.7 39.0 36.6 35.0 33.1 35.0 34.7 32.7 34.2 30.2 33.8 34.0 35.5 36.1 34.5 Inventories (sentiment) Imports New Exports Orders Backlog of Work Average Input Price Inventory Employment Level New orders Business Activity COMPOSITE PMI Month Appendix II: Non-Manufacturing PMI Series 47.8 48.1 47.6 43.8 48.1 43.8 47.0 46.1 40.2 43.0 44.3 42.7 44.0 44.0 45.9 45.2 41.8 47.2 41.6 43.6 41.1 39.8 40.3 38.5 38.0 39.4 37.9 38.7 41.1 41.6 45.5 38.7